2013-14 Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[RSCD3_]

Not true. Rockets without Harden and DH still have Asik and Lin in S5 and is around 50 W% team, while Portland without Lilard and LA is deep lottery team.

Rockets without BOTH Howard and Harden would be a 50% team? How so? I think they'd be on the level of this season's Lakers, Kings or Jazz without these two.

well it's obvious lin is being held back from his linsanity ways by lesser players such as Melo and now Dwight and Harden

[E-Balla]

Well in that case Melo was putting up low on/off numbers on very good teams. This is the first bad team he's been on and his on/off in this type of situation speaks for itself.

The former would mean he had a great supporting cast and wasn't able to capitalize and get to the promised land, if we're saying the data is meaningful. Most who believe in Melo will not accept this.

Well his on/off wasn't that low back then.

[lorak]

Not true. Rockets without Harden and DH still have Asik and Lin in S5 and is around 50 W% team, while Portland without Lilard and LA is deep lottery team.

Rockets without BOTH Howard and Harden would be a 50% team? How so? I think they'd be on the level of this season's Lakers, Kings or Jazz without these two.

well it's obvious lin is being held back from his linsanity ways by lesser players such as Melo and now Dwight and Harden

It's less about Lin, than about Asik. Omer missed a lot of time (played just 968 minutes) and often was used in wrong way. Generally fit is big issue here and you guys must realize that if Harden and Dwight wouldn't be there, then production (and value) of players like Asik and Lin would be higher. Food for though: addition of Dwight increased Rockets SRS by +1.4, while addition of Harden, Asik and Lin in 2012 by +3.1. Of course Howard improved allready good team (+3.7) so it's not just "1.4", but still - Rockets even without him were and still are around +3.5 SRS team. So if you guys belive Harden is worth 3-4 SRS points, then fine, but it's very unlikely.

[Doctor MJ]

Well in that case Melo was putting up low on/off numbers on very good teams. This is the first bad team he's been on and his on/off in this type of situation speaks for itself.

The former would mean he had a great supporting cast and wasn't able to capitalize and get to the promised land, if we're saying the data is meaningful. Most who believe in Melo will not accept this.

Well his on/off wasn't that low back then.

Nuanced use of his +/- with things like regression analysis puts his impact far below his stature through most of his career. Like, not even worthy of being an all-star low.

It's pretty understandable why people reject it given how it conflicts with expectations, but then it's interesting to see it used as an argument for him once it goes along with his reputation. Not saying everyone involved is contradicting themselves of course, but it just struck me.

[SideshowBob]

Here's how close the five 7-game series have been by ORTG through 6 games:

Indiana: 104.2
Atlanta: 105.2

Brooklyn: 108.9
Toronto: 107.1

San Antonio: 110.6
Dallas: 112.2

Oklahoma City: 105.8
Memphis: 101.0

Los Angeles: 108.3
Golden State: 104.0

[Dr Positivity]

It's less about Lin, than about Asik. Omer missed a lot of time (played just 968 minutes) and often was used in wrong way. Generally fit is big issue here and you guys must realize that if Harden and Dwight wouldn't be there, then production (and value) of players like Asik and Lin would be higher. Food for though: addition of Dwight increased Rockets SRS by +1.4, while addition of Harden, Asik and Lin in 2012 by +3.1. Of course Howard improved allready good team (+3.7) so it's not just "1.4", but still - Rockets even without him were and still are around +3.5 SRS team. So if you guys belive Harden is worth 3-4 SRS points, then fine, but it's very unlikely.

I disagree that Rockets improvement from 2012 to 2013 should not be attributed to Harden. Yes they went from 42 W to 50 W pyth adding all of Harden, Lin, Asik and Parsons improving, but let's not underrate how much they lost from the 2012 team. Lowry, Dragic, Kevin Martin, Scola, Courtney Lee, Budinger, Dalembert were a lot of players between very good and competent. Before the Rockets trade happened they were expected to be a 20 Ws team. Which doesn't necessarily mean it would've happened judging from Suns example, but I'd have been shocked to see them get to 40 Ws

[GSP]

Im not sure who the best player was in the Golden State/Clippers series. Steph, Cp3 and Blake all had good series so did Deandre. All i know is i cant put both Blake and Cp3 over Steph its either one or the other or neither. That series was so close

[E-Balla]

Steph easily imo. Sure Blake and Chris were good but CP3 tapped out a few too many times and relaxed while Blake just wasn't as impressive as Steph to me.

[HeartBreakKid]

Blake Griffin was the best player that series. He bullied the Warriors.

It is not like Stephen Curry is the only good player on the Warriors, he has Andre Igudolla, who did a great job defensively. Clippers vs Warriors was supposed to be a close series, if Curry had Bogut they probably would have won.

Stephen Curry's first 4 games or so were pretty bad. He didn't really out play Chris Paul at all, they were about even I thought production wise.

[therealbig3]

I've got Steph and Griffin in a virtual tie for 3rd place so far, probably a slight edge to Steph.

CP3 has to play well the rest of the way in order to crack the top 5 imo.

[Doctor MJ]

I've got Steph and Griffin in a virtual tie for 3rd place so far, probably a slight edge to Steph.

CP3 has to play well the rest of the way in order to crack the top 5 imo.

I have similar thoughts. With the amount of time Paul missed and how well the team did in his absence, it will be hard for me to move him too far up unless he plays exceptionally well against OKC. And part of that means, if adding Paul can't move LAC past OKC, then OKC better be playing like clear cut champions.

I think Curry and the Warriors showed for the second year in a row that they appear to be more dangerous in the playoffs than in the regular season. The Clippers are fortunate that Bogut was injured.

Also, obviously Harden is out of all talk now, but I'll say Love is still a serious contender in my mind.

[SideshowBob]

Adjusted 1st Round Team Performance
**Adjusted Regular Season Offense/Defense also posted. Completed series only.

------------------------------------------------------

East

Code: Select all

Team        ORTG     Adj.    RS    |   DRTG     Adj.    RS   |     Net

Indiana     104.1   -2.3    -2.6   |   103.0   -2.9    -7.4  |    +0.6
Atlanta     103.0   +3.7    -0.8   |   104.1   +0.0    -0.3  |    +3.7

Washington  108.9   +8.4    -0.7   |   103.6   +1.1    -2.1  |    +7.3
Chicago     103.6   -1.0    -4.2   |   108.9   +2.9    -6.2  |    -3.9

Miami       113.6   +9.8    +4.2   |   102.7   -0.9    -0.9  |    +10.7
Charlotte   102.7   -3.1    +3.1   |   113.6   +2.7    -2.9  |    -5.8

------------------------------------------------------

West

Code: Select all

Team        ORTG     Adj.    RS    |   DRTG     Adj.    RS   |     Net

OKC         108.9   +4.3    +3.8   |  103.1   -3.2     -2.8  |    +7.5
Memphis     103.1   -0.8    -0.4   |  108.9   -1.6     -2.1  |    +0.8

L.A.        115.1   +12.5   +5.4   |  110.5   +3.0     -1.9  |    +9.5
G.S.        110.5   +5.7    +0.8   |  115.1   +3.0     -4.1  |    +2.7

Portland    115.3   +9.0    +4.8   |  115.6   +4.6     +0.7  |    +4.4
Houston     115.6   +8.2    +4.3   |  115.3   +3.8     -0.4  |    +4.4

------------------------------------------------------

That Portland-Houston series

[sp6r=underrated]

The LAC-OKC WCSF is the best CSF match-up since the famed and still controversial 07 WCSF.

[Quotatious]

The LAC-OKC WCSF is the best CSF match-up since the famed and still controversial 07 WCSF.

Yeah, possibly, but 2008 SAS vs NOH, 2009 LAL vs HOU and 2011 OKC vs MEM were awesome, too. Having two superstar tandems like CP3/Griffin and KD/Russ going at it will be awesome to see, though.

[ronnymac2]

The LAC-OKC WCSF is the best CSF match-up since the famed and still controversial 07 WCSF.

This is the real WCF.

[sp6r=underrated]

Adjusted 1st Round Team Performance
**Adjusted Regular Season Offense/Defense also posted. Completed series only.

------------------------------------------------------

East

Code: Select all

Team        ORTG     Adj.    RS    |   DRTG     Adj.    RS   |     Net

Indiana     104.1   -2.3    -2.6   |   103.0   -2.9    -7.4  |    +0.6
Atlanta     103.0   +3.7    -0.8   |   104.1   +0.0    -0.3  |    +3.7

Washington  108.9   +8.4    -0.7   |   103.6   +1.1    -2.1  |    +7.3
Chicago     103.6   -1.0    -4.2   |   108.9   +2.9    -6.2  |    -3.9

Miami       113.6   +9.8    +4.2   |   102.7   -0.9    -0.9  |    +10.7
Charlotte   102.7   -3.1    +3.1   |   113.6   +2.7    -2.9  |    -5.8

------------------------------------------------------

West

Code: Select all

Team        ORTG     Adj.    RS    |   DRTG     Adj.    RS   |     Net

OKC         108.9   +4.3    +3.8   |  103.1   -3.2     -2.8  |    +7.5
Memphis     103.1   -0.8    -0.4   |  108.9   -1.6     -2.1  |    +0.8

L.A.        115.1   +12.5   +5.4   |  110.5   +3.0     -1.9  |    +9.5
G.S.        110.5   +5.7    +0.8   |  115.1   +3.0     -4.1  |    +2.7

Portland    115.3   +9.0    +4.8   |  115.6   +4.6     +0.7  |    +4.4
Houston     115.6   +8.2    +4.3   |  115.3   +3.8     -0.4  |    +4.4

------------------------------------------------------

That Portland-Houston series

Sideshow,

Did the numbers change?

[JordansBulls]

The LAC-OKC WCSF is the best CSF match-up since the famed and still controversial 07 WCSF.

Better than Bos-Cle in 2010? or Dallas-LAL in 2011???

[SideshowBob]

Adjusted 1st Round Team Performance

Spoiler:

**Adjusted Regular Season Offense/Defense also posted. Completed series only.

------------------------------------------------------

East

Code: Select all

Team        ORTG     Adj.    RS    |   DRTG     Adj.    RS   |     Net

Indiana     104.1   -2.3    -2.6   |   103.0   -2.9    -7.4  |    +0.6
Atlanta     103.0   +3.7    -0.8   |   104.1   +0.0    -0.3  |    +3.7

Washington  108.9   +8.4    -0.7   |   103.6   +1.1    -2.1  |    +7.3
Chicago     103.6   -1.0    -4.2   |   108.9   +2.9    -6.2  |    -3.9

Miami       113.6   +9.8    +4.2   |   102.7   -0.9    -0.9  |    +10.7
Charlotte   102.7   -3.1    +3.1   |   113.6   +2.7    -2.9  |    -5.8

------------------------------------------------------

West

Code: Select all

Team        ORTG     Adj.    RS    |   DRTG     Adj.    RS   |     Net

OKC         108.9   +4.3    +3.8   |  103.1   -3.2     -2.8  |    +7.5
Memphis     103.1   -0.8    -0.4   |  108.9   -1.6     -2.1  |    +0.8

L.A.        115.1   +12.5   +5.4   |  110.5   +3.0     -1.9  |    +9.5
G.S.        110.5   +5.7    +0.8   |  115.1   +3.0     -4.1  |    +2.7

Portland    115.3   +9.0    +4.8   |  115.6   +4.6     +0.7  |    +4.4
Houston     115.6   +8.2    +4.3   |  115.3   +3.8     -0.4  |    +4.4

------------------------------------------------------

That Portland-Houston series

Sideshow,

Did the numbers change?

Are you referring to the dichotomy between these numbers and these? Because that's just two different possession estimation methods being used and I used the latter set, as that's what I've always used. If not that, then I'm not sure what you mean.

[Texas Chuck]

The LAC-OKC WCSF is the best CSF match-up since the famed and still controversial 07 WCSF.

This is the real WCF.

Spurs remind you that they are still in the conference.....

[sp6r=underrated]

Adjusted 1st Round Team Performance

Spoiler:

**Adjusted Regular Season Offense/Defense also posted. Completed series only.

------------------------------------------------------

East

Code: Select all

Team        ORTG     Adj.    RS    |   DRTG     Adj.    RS   |     Net

Indiana     104.1   -2.3    -2.6   |   103.0   -2.9    -7.4  |    +0.6
Atlanta     103.0   +3.7    -0.8   |   104.1   +0.0    -0.3  |    +3.7

Washington  108.9   +8.4    -0.7   |   103.6   +1.1    -2.1  |    +7.3
Chicago     103.6   -1.0    -4.2   |   108.9   +2.9    -6.2  |    -3.9

Miami       113.6   +9.8    +4.2   |   102.7   -0.9    -0.9  |    +10.7
Charlotte   102.7   -3.1    +3.1   |   113.6   +2.7    -2.9  |    -5.8

------------------------------------------------------

West

Code: Select all

Team        ORTG     Adj.    RS    |   DRTG     Adj.    RS   |     Net

OKC         108.9   +4.3    +3.8   |  103.1   -3.2     -2.8  |    +7.5
Memphis     103.1   -0.8    -0.4   |  108.9   -1.6     -2.1  |    +0.8

L.A.        115.1   +12.5   +5.4   |  110.5   +3.0     -1.9  |    +9.5
G.S.        110.5   +5.7    +0.8   |  115.1   +3.0     -4.1  |    +2.7

Portland    115.3   +9.0    +4.8   |  115.6   +4.6     +0.7  |    +4.4
Houston     115.6   +8.2    +4.3   |  115.3   +3.8     -0.4  |    +4.4

------------------------------------------------------

That Portland-Houston series

Sideshow,

Did the numbers change?

Are you referring to the dichotomy between these numbers and these? Because that's just two different possession estimation methods being used and I used the latter set, as that's what I've always used. If not that, then I'm not sure what you mean.

That is what I was referring to. Do you know why they use two different formulas?