Bradley Beal - Part II

[BruceO]

how do you think he'll fare against stephenson?

[GhostsOfGil]

how do you think he'll fare against stephenson?

Sysnergy has Bulter rated above Lance in terms of defense so there's that.

[Nivek]

Harden is a pretty indifferent defender, but (as is often the case) the IMPACT of his defense is being exaggerated. During the regular season, there was virtually no difference in the Rockets team defense whether Harden was on the floor or not. It was about 3.5 points per 100 possessions worse in the playoffs when Harden was out there, but a) that's a TINY sample size, and b) the real message was that the Rockets couldn't stop Portland from scoring, period.

Dat's point is a good one: perimeter defenders just aren't as important as interior ones. It's much easier to hide a bad perimeter defender than a bad interior one. It's much harder for a good perimeter defender to make a major impact than it is for a comparably good interior one.

Beal's defense could best be described as "acceptable." He's not exceptional on that end (at least not yet). Certainly the difference between Beal and Harden defensively wouldn't make up for the significant advantage Harden has on offense.

Obviously, Beal has a world of potential. If he realizes it, he could well be a better player than Harden. But he's not there yet.

[dckingsfan]

I look at Beal (from what I see with my eyes) and it seems like he has improved.

But when I look at his statistics, it seems marginal.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lbr01.html

Nivek - how does your stats show him year over year?

[Kanyewest]

I look at Beal (from what I see with my eyes) and it seems like he has improved.

But when I look at his statistics, it seems marginal.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lbr01.html

Nivek - how does your stats show him year over year?

I think most people suggest that his numbers didn't improve during the regular season. His stats during the playoffs have been MUCH better although it is a much smaller sample size.

[Kanyewest]

Harden is a pretty indifferent defender, but (as is often the case) the IMPACT of his defense is being exaggerated. During the regular season, there was virtually no difference in the Rockets team defense whether Harden was on the floor or not. It was about 3.5 points per 100 possessions worse in the playoffs when Harden was out there, but a) that's a TINY sample size, and b) the real message was that the Rockets couldn't stop Portland from scoring, period.

Dat's point is a good one: perimeter defenders just aren't as important as interior ones. It's much easier to hide a bad perimeter defender than a bad interior one. It's much harder for a good perimeter defender to make a major impact than it is for a comparably good interior one.

Beal's defense could best be described as "acceptable." He's not exceptional on that end (at least not yet). Certainly the difference between Beal and Harden defensively wouldn't make up for the significant advantage Harden has on offense.

Obviously, Beal has a world of potential. If he realizes it, he could well be a better player than Harden. But he's not there yet.

I agree that perimeter defense isn't as important and it's harder to make a positive impact. Still, a player can still have a large impact negatively defensively.

Just look at Lillard's game winner where Harden should have switched onto Lillard, which was just one of the many bad defensive plays Harden tallied up for the series.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2GJ2PwXQ4E[/youtube]

Perhaps the Blazers were a unique matchup since Lillard, Batum, and Matthews could all score consistently on Harden. It became so bad for Harden that at one point in game 6, the Rockets had Harden guarding Robin Lopez- who subsequently scored two baskets in the post on him.

Harden also struggled in the postseason where the game is officiated differently, teams can game plan more effectively, and the intensity is high since there are no back to back games. In this situation, Harden was less efficient. His free throw attempts per 36 minutes were down. His 3 point shot went down to 30% and it was only 25% through 5 games. It wasn't just that Harden shot wasn't falling but he was also taking bad shots from hero ball. And the Blazers were considered a weak team defensively going into the series.

That being said, Harden still comes out ahead of Beal. Yes Beal has in some ways outplayed Harden in the 1st round of the playoffs but it is still a small sample size.

I am encouraged what I've seen from Beal though. Beal has been scoring more efficiently, getting to the free throw line more against a top defensive team in Chicago. Hopefully, it continues against Indiana.

[Illmatic12]

how do you think he'll fare against stephenson?

He'll get his on offense from off-ball action, but he probably won't be able to guard Stephenson or keep him off the boards.

The difference in offensive skill between Stephenson and Butler is massive. And unlike Butler, Lance actually uses his size/strength to post up.

I think Beal is really going to struggle defensively, hope I'm wrong.

[hands11]

I say this is the series we watch young Mr RealDeal become a man.

I saw some focus and fight in our smiley faced young man last series that showed me his inner warrior.

I think he is going to go to war with Lance. He isn't going to back down. I think we are going to see these two broken up at least once during the series.

I think Randy should help him out by throwing some Temple at Lance and using up some fouls because I expect Beal to use his this series.

[deneem4]

^^ I agree...but I also think beal is better than Stephenson and unlike stephenson can use his aggressiveness to an advantage...
If beal can make lance be in his face for every minute on the floor, he'll basically be canceling out what lance does best, which is the little things and hustle plays...

[Ruzious]

It was Beverly who had the best opportunity to pick up Lillard on that play, and Beverly is known as a good defensive PG - who generally matches up against... Lillard. But give Lillard for making what is so far The single most impressive play of the year rather than blaming a defender.

Again, who knows what will happen in the future, and Harden is annoying, but Harden is miles and miles and miles and miles ahead of Beal now.

[hands11]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ViEbOJvTLak[/youtube]


[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkUNmixWfow[/youtube]


[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDNKH8vc2_4[/youtube]

[dckingsfan]

I look at Beal (from what I see with my eyes) and it seems like he has improved.

But when I look at his statistics, it seems marginal.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lbr01.html

Nivek - how does your stats show him year over year?

I think most people suggest that his numbers didn't improve during the regular season. His stats during the playoffs have been MUCH better although it is a much smaller sample size.

Got it, that makes more sense.

[Nivek]

I agree that perimeter defense isn't as important and it's harder to make a positive impact. Still, a player can still have a large impact negatively defensively.

Just look at Lillard's game winner where Harden should have switched onto Lillard, which was just one of the many bad defensive plays Harden tallied up for the series.

Yeah, there are definitely plays where Harden's bad defense cost them. In aggregate, over time, the impact of his defense hasn't been very significant. They've been about the same defensively whether he's been on the court or off.

I don't see where or why Harden should have switched on that play. The Rockets didn't switch any screens at all. If anything, it looks like Beverly should've switched since it was his man setting the screen. And, they probably should have had anyone defending the inbounds passer. Still, the defense wasn't bad -- Lillard got a sliver of an opening and knocked down a shot that Chandler was a beat late contesting. It's really stretching to try to blame that on Harden.

Perhaps the Blazers were a unique matchup since Lillard, Batum, and Matthews could all score consistently on Harden. It became so bad for Harden that at one point in game 6, the Rockets had Harden guarding Robin Lopez- who subsequently scored two baskets in the post on him.

Harden also struggled in the postseason where the game is officiated differently, teams can game plan more effectively, and the intensity is high since there are no back to back games. In this situation, Harden was less efficient. His free throw attempts per 36 minutes were down. His 3 point shot went down to 30% and it was only 25% through 5 games. It wasn't just that Harden shot wasn't falling but he was also taking bad shots from hero ball. And the Blazers were considered a weak team defensively going into the series.

Folks are drawing way too many conclusions from very small sample sizes. In this series, Harden's free throw rate (FTA/FGA) was significantly lower than it was during the regular season: .552 to .376. But this isn't his first playoffs. Over the course of his 55 games and 1793 minutes in the playoffs, his free throw rate is virtually identical to his career regular season rate: .540 in the playoffs to .543 in the regular season.

His offensive rating (points produced per 100 possessions) is 116 in the playoffs vs. 118 in the regular season.

No question that he had a rough series. But, we have 11600+ regular season minutes that pretty much say Harden is terrific. His overall playoff performance suggests that he's about as good in the post-season as he is in the regular season. It just doesn't make sense to make wholesale revisions based on 263 minutes. Especially when we're talking about a guy who doesn't turn 25 until August.

That being said, Harden still comes out ahead of Beal. Yes Beal has in some ways outplayed Harden in the 1st round of the playoffs but it is still a small sample size.

I am encouraged what I've seen from Beal though. Beal has been scoring more efficiently, getting to the free throw line more against a top defensive team in Chicago. Hopefully, it continues against Indiana.

Agree completely. I like Beal, and I think he's going to be a first-rate pro.

[Nivek]

I look at Beal (from what I see with my eyes) and it seems like he has improved.

But when I look at his statistics, it seems marginal.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lbr01.html

Nivek - how does your stats show him year over year?

He had a late surge which put his PPA for the season to 96. Last season, it was 92. So, pretty modest improvement.

In the first round against the Bulls, his PPA was 152, second on the Wizards to Ariza's 193.

[dckingsfan]

I look at Beal (from what I see with my eyes) and it seems like he has improved.

But when I look at his statistics, it seems marginal.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lbr01.html

Nivek - how does your stats show him year over year?

He had a late surge which put his PPA for the season to 96. Last season, it was 92. So, pretty modest improvement.

In the first round against the Bulls, his PPA was 152, second on the Wizards to Ariza's 193.

OK, I had something similar for the regular season - mine was basically a wash when correcting for margin of error.

Terrific to see such an nice jump in the playoffs. Hope it means he is trending

[BruceO]

I know he's the real deal Bradley Beal but I'm just gonna call him 4th quarter Beal now. whenever I see him go off in the fourth that name sticks in my head. its like Jordan who's the only other person I remember who would just kill it in the fourth.
did better against Stevenson than I thought. He's still twenty ( I think ) and scored plus 25 points thrice so far our of six games and is in very elite company at his age. I hope he keeps this up. He comes out to play against wade and Joe Johnson so if we make it out this series I expect him to continue being a silent killer.

[tontoz]

Beal took too many long 2s and had some bad turnovers but 25/7/7 with 5 steals is major production and once again he hit key shots in the 4th. He punk'd Stevenson.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

I know he's the real deal Bradley Beal but I'm just gonna call him 4th quarter Beal now. whenever I see him go off in the fourth that name sticks in my head. its like Jordan who's the only other person I remember who would just kill it in the fourth.
did better against Stevenson than I thought. He's still twenty ( I think ) and scored plus 25 points thrice so far our of six games and is in very elite company at his age. I hope he keeps this up. He comes out to play against wade and Joe Johnson so if we make it out this series I expect him to continue being a silent killer.

Apparently he has no company. First player younger than 21 to score 25 pts three times in the playoffs.

[Sluggerface]

Nah Magic did it in his Rookie year. If he has another 25+ point game then he truly will be the first one to do it. Here's to making NBA history brad.

[Sluggerface]

Beal is the only player to ever score 25 points, record 7 steals, 7 rebounds, and 5 steals before the age of 21 though.