Grunfeld a Great GM. Proves Doubters Wrong

[Nivek]

It is a huge strecth, but you can get there:

Bibby - $6 million
Arenas/Lewis deal - $43 million(only paid for one year of Lewis vs. 3 of Arenas)
$23 million Blatche Amnesty -> ~$40 million in luxury tax payments
Declined Vesley option - $4.3 million
Declined Chris Singleton option $2.5 million
Miller - $2.5 million unguarranteed next season
Webster - $5.8 million unguarranteed final season

Total $104.1 million

Since I have a self-imposed moratorium on EG bashing during the Wizards play-off run, I will leave it to others to dispute these numbers.

Bibby -- yes

Arenas/Lewis -- would need more analysis -- he traded Lewis for Okafor and Ariza, and then Okafor plus a 1st for Gortat

Blatche amnesty would be a stretch. First, Grunfeld gave Blatche the extension in the first place, which led to the need to amnesty Blatche in the second (note that Blatche's amnesty happened before the extension had even begun). And, it's a stretch to assume luxury tax payments were avoided by amnestying him because other moves could have been handled differently that would have resulted in not paying the luxury tax. Amnestying Blatche was an expense.

The declined options could sorta be twisted to assume savings, I guess. Except, of course, that even moderately productive players on rookie contracts are terrific bargains in the NBA.

And the Webster thing is a colossal stretch because Webster needs to play only 102 more games the next two seasons to fully guarantee that 4th year. While Webster has struggled with injuries (including this season with his back), he's played in 76% of his team's regular seasons games during his career. That's 62 games per season. So, it's highly likely he's going to get that $5.8 million.

On the savings side: Ilgauskas buyout. I don't know the exact amount, but the Wiz did save some there.

But here's the thing with those buyouts. Yeah, they did save the Wizards some money, but it was because the franchise was such a trainwreck that vets were willing to give back millions of dollars to they wouldn't have to stay.

[WallToWall]

EG has one more year on his contract, according to CBS Sports. Link: http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-bas ... n-his-deal



Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using RealGM Forums mobile app

[daSwami]

And how do you factor in the amount of cash Ted missed out on making from Ticket sales/merch by putting such a poor product on the floor every night? That's at least enough cash to install cup holders in Verizon Center crappers, too, which itself is a PR goldmine.

[Nivek]

And how do you factor in the amount of cash Ted missed out on making from Ticket sales/merch by putting such a poor product on the floor every night? That's at least enough cash to install cup holders in Verizon Center crappers, too, which itself is a PR goldmine.

At quick glance, Wizards attendance doesn't seem to have varied much based on the team's performance. During Grunfeld's tenure, the team's attendance has average 16,918 with a high of 18,372 in 2006-07 and a low of 15,741 his first season on the job. The "well into his tenure low" was 16,204 in 2009-10.

There's some correlation between better record and higher attendance, and lower record/lower attendance but the effect is pretty small. Standard deviation during Grunfeld's tenure is 755 -- about 4.5% annually. Drop his first year on the job, and average attendance rises to 17,036, but the standard deviation drops to 682 -- about 4.0% annually.

[dckingsfan]

And how do you factor in the amount of cash Ted missed out on making from Ticket sales/merch by putting such a poor product on the floor every night? That's at least enough cash to install cup holders in Verizon Center crappers, too, which itself is a PR goldmine.

At quick glance, Wizards attendance doesn't seem to have varied much based on the team's performance. During Grunfeld's tenure, the team's attendance has average 16,918 with a high of 18,372 in 2006-07 and a low of 15,741 his first season on the job. The "well into his tenure low" was 16,204 in 2009-10.

There's some correlation between better record and higher attendance, and lower record/lower attendance but the effect is pretty small. Standard deviation during Grunfeld's tenure is 755 -- about 4.5% annually. Drop his first year on the job, and average attendance rises to 17,036, but the standard deviation drops to 682 -- about 4.0% annually.

And at 755 assuming they spend $50 per game, 41 games is only $1.5M per season. (all guesses) - which is probably not right because with an attendance (this year) 17,026, that would only be $35M of revenue - which wouldn't cover payroll.

"The NBA has earned $5 billion this season, much coming from television rights..."

Where winning really helps the team is in merchandise sales - that is where any "huge" losses from having an EG are hidden (opinion).

[dckingsfan]

BTW, the capacity of the Verizon Center is 18,277.

So, when the Wizards claim 17,026 average attendance, those who have been to any of the games roll with laughter.

[montestewart]

And how do you factor in the amount of cash Ted missed out on making from Ticket sales/merch by putting such a poor product on the floor every night? That's at least enough cash to install cup holders in Verizon Center crappers, too, which itself is a PR goldmine.

At quick glance, Wizards attendance doesn't seem to have varied much based on the team's performance. During Grunfeld's tenure, the team's attendance has average 16,918 with a high of 18,372 in 2006-07 and a low of 15,741 his first season on the job. The "well into his tenure low" was 16,204 in 2009-10.

There's some correlation between better record and higher attendance, and lower record/lower attendance but the effect is pretty small. Standard deviation during Grunfeld's tenure is 755 -- about 4.5% annually. Drop his first year on the job, and average attendance rises to 17,036, but the standard deviation drops to 682 -- about 4.0% annually.

If the difference between a lousy team and a perennial contender does not translate to a commensurate difference in ticket sales, I wonder what other potential income comes into play. Just trying to figure the non-pride based incentive for building a contender. I guess a lot more "sold" tickets are given away or sold at a reduced price when the team sucks, and prices jacked up when things are rolling. What is the potential for increased revenue if the Wizards become a respected brand? Who are the sorts business experts around here?

[hands11]

Chuck now calling for a beat down...

"Gonna be a beatdown, quick and painless"


So how has their glass out ?

[daSwami]

BTW, the capacity of the Verizon Center is 18,277.

So, when the Wizards claim 17,026 average attendance, those who have been to any of the games roll with laughter.

So they averaged ABOVE capacity in 06-07? Sounds like somebody fudged the numbers to me.

[milellie111]

Calling Out All Haters!!.....Crickets.....

[MikeTheKid]

^^^This shyt is annoying and Im happy right now. Give your message a rest and chill out. We cant celebrate without your trolling jeez man

[hands11]

From the general board..

11 minutes ago by Cyrusman122000
I' have no shame in admitting this, but I completely underestimated this wizards team before the playoffs. I had them losing in 6 to chicago. Now the more I look at them and watch them I see how well they are constructed. I think they'll win this series in 5.

Despite what some might think I feel they would be a tougher matchup at this point for Miami compare to Indy


Build it, and they will come

[closg00]

Calling Out All Haters!!.....Crickets.....

Your troll sig says it all, you don't have a photo of your favorite Wizard players, you have a photo of Ted, Ernie, & Randy. Go troll someplace else.

[Jay81]

This REALLY pains me to write this but Ernie has been very good at cleaning up his own mess and now could be favored to win executive of the year based on how the NBA grades such things. The cost of the mess however has been astronomical in terms of wins and losses. We could of been much better quicker

Mess:Javale McGee: Clean up Nene
Mess: Eric Maynor : Clean up Andre Miller
Mess: Jan Vesley: Clean up Andre Miller
Mess Gilbert Arenas: Clean up Trevor Ariza and Okafor/Gortat but we lost a 1st rounder
Mess: Terrible bench this year: Clean up Drew Gooden from Waiver wires
Beal and Wall--my mom could of drafted them so no praises there although some argue Drummond should of been picked for Beal
Booker has panned out as a role player
He still has not cleaned up his own mess of Singleton,Seraphin or the overpaying of Webster.
I still think Porter has good potential

[dckingsfan]

This REALLY pains me to write this but Ernie has been very good at cleaning up his own mess and now could be favored to win executive of the year based on how the NBA grades such things. The cost of the mess however has been astronomical in terms of wins and losses. We could of been much better quicker

Mess:Javale McGee: Clean up Nene
Mess: Eric Maynor : Clean up Andre Miller
Mess: Jan Vesley: Clean up Andre Miller
Mess Gilbert Arenas: Clean up Trevor Ariza and Okafor/Gortat but we lost a 1st rounder
Mess: Terrible bench this year: Clean up Drew Gooden from Waiver wires
Beal and Wall--my mom could of drafted them so no praises there although some argue Drummond should of been picked for Beal
Booker has panned out as a role player
He still has not cleaned up his own mess of Singleton,Seraphin or the overpaying of Webster.
I still think Porter has good potential

Now we are screwed....

[Nivek]

And how do you factor in the amount of cash Ted missed out on making from Ticket sales/merch by putting such a poor product on the floor every night? That's at least enough cash to install cup holders in Verizon Center crappers, too, which itself is a PR goldmine.

At quick glance, Wizards attendance doesn't seem to have varied much based on the team's performance. During Grunfeld's tenure, the team's attendance has average 16,918 with a high of 18,372 in 2006-07 and a low of 15,741 his first season on the job. The "well into his tenure low" was 16,204 in 2009-10.

There's some correlation between better record and higher attendance, and lower record/lower attendance but the effect is pretty small. Standard deviation during Grunfeld's tenure is 755 -- about 4.5% annually. Drop his first year on the job, and average attendance rises to 17,036, but the standard deviation drops to 682 -- about 4.0% annually.

If the difference between a lousy team and a perennial contender does not translate to a commensurate difference in ticket sales, I wonder what other potential income comes into play. Just trying to figure the non-pride based incentive for building a contender. I guess a lot more "sold" tickets are given away or sold at a reduced price when the team sucks, and prices jacked up when things are rolling. What is the potential for increased revenue if the Wizards become a respected brand? Who are the sorts business experts around here?

Well, the Wizards haven't been a "perennial contender" at any point in Grunfeld's tenure. They made the playoffs, but topped out at 45 wins. And, there was some correlation between ticket sales and record -- but not enough to fully explain variation in ticket sales. It could be that DC is a relatively unique market because of the presence of government and government contractors, which might make demand less elastic than it is in other markets. It could also be that Wizards fans have gotten so accustomed to losing through the years that they're going to buy tickets anyway. And, it could be that we're looking at too small a sample size. Maybe we should be looking at the 10 years preceding Grunfeld's tenure as well. Plus the rest of the league.

Honestly though, I don't care enough about this subject to do anything rigorous on it.

[fishercob]

This REALLY pains me to write this but Ernie has been very good at cleaning up his own mess and now could be favored to win executive of the year based on how the NBA grades such things. The cost of the mess however has been astronomical in terms of wins and losses. We could of been much better quicker

Mess:Javale McGee: Clean up Nene
Mess: Eric Maynor : Clean up Andre Miller
Mess: Jan Vesley: Clean up Andre Miller
Mess Gilbert Arenas: Clean up Trevor Ariza and Okafor/Gortat but we lost a 1st rounder
Mess: Terrible bench this year: Clean up Drew Gooden from Waiver wires
Beal and Wall--my mom could of drafted them so no praises there although some argue Drummond should of been picked for Beal
Booker has panned out as a role player
He still has not cleaned up his own mess of Singleton,Seraphin or the overpaying of Webster.
I still think Porter has good potential

What the f*ck is wrong with you, dude?

This is the most astonishing post I have ever read here.

LOL!

[Jay81]

This REALLY pains me to write this but Ernie has been very good at cleaning up his own mess and now could be favored to win executive of the year based on how the NBA grades such things. The cost of the mess however has been astronomical in terms of wins and losses. We could of been much better quicker

Mess:Javale McGee: Clean up Nene
Mess: Eric Maynor : Clean up Andre Miller
Mess: Jan Vesley: Clean up Andre Miller
Mess Gilbert Arenas: Clean up Trevor Ariza and Okafor/Gortat but we lost a 1st rounder
Mess: Terrible bench this year: Clean up Drew Gooden from Waiver wires
Beal and Wall--my mom could of drafted them so no praises there although some argue Drummond should of been picked for Beal
Booker has panned out as a role player
He still has not cleaned up his own mess of Singleton,Seraphin or the overpaying of Webster.
I still think Porter has good potential

What the f*ck is wrong with you, dude?

This is the most astonishing post I have ever read here.

LOL!

I still think he is the worst GM in professional sports. The only reason he is good at cleaning up his own mess is because Ted let him. 99% of other GM's would of been fired years ago.

If i was the owner, i would of fire him after this season no matter how far we advanced.

[hands11]

This REALLY pains me to write this but Ernie has been very good at cleaning up his own mess and now could be favored to win executive of the year based on how the NBA grades such things. The cost of the mess however has been astronomical in terms of wins and losses. We could of been much better quicker

Mess:Javale McGee: Clean up Nene
Mess: Eric Maynor : Clean up Andre Miller
Mess: Jan Vesley: Clean up Andre Miller
Mess Gilbert Arenas: Clean up Trevor Ariza and Okafor/Gortat but we lost a 1st rounder
Mess: Terrible bench this year: Clean up Drew Gooden from Waiver wires
Beal and Wall--my mom could of drafted them so no praises there although some argue Drummond should of been picked for Beal
Booker has panned out as a role player
He still has not cleaned up his own mess of Singleton,Seraphin or the overpaying of Webster.
I still think Porter has good potential

Cleaning up Singleton should be a breeze.
Kevin still might be useful, we will see. There focus has been on Wall and Beal.

And with the new found exposure, adding FA should be a lot easier so upgrading the bench shouldn't be hard.

And with every win, it looks more and more likely Trevor A and Gortat would want to return and keep this rolling. And I see no problem having Trevor A starting in front of Ottoman. Its actually awesome to have depth and finally be able to bring a player along so you can win and develop at the same time. Its going to cost them some to do it that way, but that ok. They will likely be planning on two more years of TA as the starter. They will have options on Otto along the way. Keep him or cash him in. Its stored value. They are finally getting ahead of the curve in some areas.

Next year will Ottoman will be our redshirted Freshman 2014 draft pick.

Everything is coming together nicely.

[Brenice]

I still think he is the worst GM in professional sports. The only reason he is good at cleaning up his own mess is because Ted let him. 99% of other GM's would of been fired years ago.

If i was the owner, i would of fire him after this season no matter how far we advanced.

So you would fire the GM if the team makes the ECF?! Wow. What would you be telling potential GM's?