2013-14 Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[SideshowBob]

That is what I was referring to. Do you know why they use two different formulas?

I'm not entirely sure. I do know that the gamelogs/series summaries use DO's formula (which is what I've always used), and the Season/Playoff summary pages use something else that's never quite matched up (might be actual counted possessions, but don't quote me on that).

[lorak]

Sideshow,

Did the numbers change?

Are you referring to the dichotomy between these numbers and these? Because that's just two different possession estimation methods being used and I used the latter set, as that's what I've always used. If not that, then I'm not sure what you mean.

That is what I was referring to. Do you know why they use two different formulas?

They use the same formula for both, but different data - no team TOV for EC1/WC1 pages.

[ceiling raiser]

I don't want to overreact, but what kind of series do you guys need to see from CP3 and BG for them to be locks in the top 5?

[SideshowBob]

I don't want to overreact, but what kind of series do you guys need to see from CP3 and BG for them to be locks in the top 5?

Had them at top 5 already, and had Paul at #3 earlier so he was already locked.

[SideshowBob]

I don't want to overreact, but what kind of series do you guys need to see from CP3 and BG for them to be locks in the top 5?

Had them at top 5 already, and had Paul at #3 earlier so he was already locked.

On the other hand, Griffin's interesting. Him and Curry's a debate going on in my mind and I think I could lower Dirk a little bit.

[RSCD3_]

I don't want to overreact, but what kind of series do you guys need to see from CP3 and BG for them to be locks in the top 5?

I started to answer your question , and I got a little sidetracked lol so here is my thoughts

Griffin is currently my 3 based on his RS leap and continuation of his impact in the playoffs

then I have Howard, melo, love, and paul, possibly Aldridge, maybe curry in the running for the last of my 5 ( obviously LeBron and Durant are locks for the top 2 )

Lilliard hasn't done enough for me in the RS, which is the same for wall and some of the others fit that description, which is why retroactively I wouldn't put Paul George in the 2013 TOP FIVE. Harden was a consideration but playing like Brandon Jennings for 5 games in a series where all the games were close forced me to eliminate him from consideration.

How much would you value impact of playoffs for fringe all star level players who stepped up their games tremendously this year, such as Lilliard and reversely Harden

[Colbinii]

Harden was a consideration but playing like Brandon Jennings for 5 games in a series where all the games were close forced me to eliminate him from consideration.

Didn't realize 27/6/5 was something that would ever draw a comparison to Brandon Jennings.

[RSCD3_]

Harden was a consideration but playing like Brandon Jennings for 5 games in a series where all the games were close forced me to eliminate him from consideration.

Didn't realize 27/6/5 was something that would ever draw a comparison to Brandon Jennings.

25 ppg on 47 TS doesn't do much for me and the parallel was more to how he played terrible defense and shot mid 30's from the field.

[KING JAMES1978]

Durant is #1 for now unless he disappears in the playoffs. Led the league in all the major advanced stats and even scoring.

Don't be a jerk. Obviously. Check your PM. ~Doc

[ardee]

↑ not cool. Regardless of what someone says you can't treat them that way on a cultured and intelligent board like our PC board.

Anyway, I feel like if the Clippers win the title I really think the top 2 might be slightly threatened. Durant is still comfortably no. 1 for me but if Chris or Blake rampages to the Finals and LeBron's Nets relative struggles continue then well, might need to think.

Aldridge had his brief flare in round 1 but he needs to have a godlike Spurs series to come back into top 5 consideration. Unfortunately none of the other candidates really flourished in the Playoffs so my top 5 is probably going to be Durant Lebron Blake Love and Paul with Paul possibly cracking the top 4 soon.

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[KING JAMES1978]

↑ not cool. Regardless of what someone says you can't treat them that way on a cultured and intelligent board like our PC board.


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JordanBulls is a boring poster.
All the time we know that he will blame Lebron because he is a threat to his idol and also we know he will talk **** about Pippen and he will say us that MJ won everything by himself.
Then he start his bull with HCA.Is ok because he never played basketaball and he is 24 hours per day at his PC and read what ESPN says.
This dude hasn't life.
At past he did the same with Kobe.
This dude is sick.
He is never an objective poster.

[KING JAMES1978]

1.Lebron
2.Durant
3.Griffin/CP3

But we have to wait the end of the playoffs for the final results.

[mysticbb]

My current Top5 per 100 poss:

1. LeBron James +7.3
2. Chris Paul +7.0
3. Kevin Durant +6.0
4. Kevin Love +5.6
5. André Iguodala +4.7

Then: LaMarcus Aldridge (+4.7), Dirk Nowitzki (+4.7), Stephen Curry (+4.6), Blake Griffin (+4.6), Manu Ginobili (+4.6) (overtook Harden at 10 (+4.4))

The HM are essentially within 0.2 points per 100 possessions with the 5th spot (Iguodala is at 4.74, Aldridge and Nowitzki at 4.72, Griffin and Ginobili are at 4.55). Paul is already 1 point ahead of Durant, don't see a realistic chance for Durant to end up ahead of him, especially not, if the series goes to the Clippers and both stay at the same/similar level playing-wise. Love is pretty save at 4th, don't anticipate any changes there. Paul has only a small chance of overtaking James this season, given the current sample size, James must either fall off his playing level pretty harsh or Paul must play at GOAT-level for the remainder of the playoffs. Nowitzki's playoff performance saw him drop from 4.96 to 4.72 from the end of the regular season, just to get a hint how little change there is, even when someone has a rather well below his average playoff series.

Given realistic minute expectations for each player, the ranking for the season would be following:

1. LeBron James
2. Chris Paul
3. Kevin Durant
4. Kevin Love
5. LaMarcus Aldridge

HM: Stephen Curry, Dirk Nowitzki, James Harden

The minute advantage for Durant makes it really, really close ...

[HeartBreakKid]

↑ not cool. Regardless of what someone says you can't treat them that way on a cultured and intelligent board like our PC board.

Anyway, I feel like if the Clippers win the title I really think the top 2 might be slightly threatened. Durant is still comfortably no. 1 for me but if Chris or Blake rampages to the Finals and LeBron's Nets relative struggles continue then well, might need to think.

Aldridge had his brief flare in round 1 but he needs to have a godlike Spurs series to come back into top 5 consideration. Unfortunately none of the other candidates really flourished in the Playoffs so my top 5 is probably going to be Durant Lebron Blake Love and Paul with Paul possibly cracking the top 4 soon.

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I actually think if Chris destroys OKC like he does in game 1 (not particularly likely, but very possible) it would hurt Durant more than help Chris. I think it would just solidify Chris as the 3rd best player once again, or perhaps bump him to number two.

To me, this is setting James up for another #1 spot. Lebron James is not MVP because he cruised through the RS, but he was still a very comfortable #2 despite that, and I think objectively speaking it is easy to see that James and Durant's RS are reasonably close impact wise, but Durant had to do more carrying.

The post season advantage is in James favor in a big way. Durant had a much tougher opponent, but responded very poorly, and his team who was the overwhelming favorite won in a very controversial way (no Zach Randolph). On the other hand, James looked amazing in his playoff debut, with his defense coming back to top tier levels. Though it is fair to point out that Al Jefferson wasn't healthy, but I still never got the feeling that the Heat were ever in real trouble, much less thinking they would lose the series like the Thunder did.

Playoffs are still young, if James starts struggling in the playoffs then this would complicate things a lot for me.

[Dr Spaceman]

Aldridge had his brief flare in round 1 but he needs to have a godlike Spurs series to come back into top 5 consideration.

Eh. He wasn't ever going to average 40 points in a series and he shouldn't be expected to.

He played poorly in Game 3 and especially game 5, but his Game 4 and 6 were pretty great, albeit not on the level of his G1&2. Game 4 had him putting up 29/10, a pretty spectacular game despite the fact that it was overshadowed by his earlier performance. Game 6 was really impressive, however. He attacked all night and basically took Houston's bigs out of the game and lived on the foul line all night. Ended up with 30/13 on the night. It sort of got lost in the Lillard hype, but that's Aldridge being Aldridge and he was the biggest factor in that game.

Another thing that hasn't been brought up is his defense. He was getting up and blocking shots, and this was the most active and impactful I think I've ever seen him on that end.

I don't know, I feel like a guy who's 3rd and 4th best games in a series were 30/10 and 29/13 nights, respectively, can't really be called a "brief flair". More like he just had two really bad games in the middle.

He finished the series with a PER of 27.7 and a TS% of .545, well above what he was doing in the RS or any previous playoffs.

[colts18]

Given realistic minute expectations for each player, the ranking for the season would be following:

1. LeBron James
2. Chris Paul
3. Kevin Durant
4. Kevin Love
5. LaMarcus Aldridge

HM: Stephen Curry, Dirk Nowitzki, James Harden

The minute advantage for Durant makes it really, really close ...

I don't see how you can have CP3 ahead of Durant. Durant played 1,000 more minutes than CP3. That's the equivalent of 28 36 minute games. That's a huge advantage. If CP3 was so great this year, why were the Clippers 13-7 with a 5.77 SRS in the 20 games he missed this year? Blake Griffin should be ahead of CP3 because of that too

[SideshowBob]

Given realistic minute expectations for each player, the ranking for the season would be following:

1. LeBron James
2. Chris Paul
3. Kevin Durant
4. Kevin Love
5. LaMarcus Aldridge

HM: Stephen Curry, Dirk Nowitzki, James Harden

The minute advantage for Durant makes it really, really close ...

I don't see how you can have CP3 ahead of Durant. Durant played 1,000 more minutes than CP3. That's the equivalent of 28 36 minute games. That's a huge advantage. If CP3 was so great this year, why were the Clippers 13-7 with a 5.77 SRS in the 20 games he missed this year? Blake Griffin should be ahead of CP3 because of that too

I can't speak for mystic's specific mathematics, but I do know that he and Elgee have both pointed out that the translation from impact -> winning odds does not shift linearly.

The difference between a +7 and a +6 is greater than the difference between a +6 and a +5, and on and on.

[sp6r=underrated]

Does anyone else think the Clippers have played the two best individual games of the post-season so far?

[Colbinii]

↑ not cool. Regardless of what someone says you can't treat them that way on a cultured and intelligent board like our PC board.


Sent from my GT-I9300 using RealGM Forums mobile app

JordanBulls is a boring poster.
All the time we know that he will blame Lebron because he is a threat to his idol and also we know he will talk **** about Pippen and he will say us that MJ won everything by himself.
Then he start his bull with HCA.Is ok because he never played basketaball and he is 24 hours per day at his PC and read what ESPN says.
This dude hasn't life.
At past he did the same with Kobe.
This dude is sick.
He is never an objective poster.

If you think a poster is a bad poster, put them on ignore. No need to act like a child and post irrationally on a board that is filled with very intelligent and respectful posters.

[mysticbb]

Durant played 1,000 more minutes than CP3.

That may be relevant to you, but it is not relevant to me. I use an reasonable value for the expected minutes per game, which is based on a typical average game in the RS as well as an expected increase in mpg in the playoffs. Using that method I get an expected change of the scoring margin per game (all teams with the same pace, I might add); that's what I sorted and Paul ended up 0.01 points ahead of Durant in that method. That is as close as it gets, but I still feel comfortable with that decision just based on the fact that Paul overall presents the better per 100 poss value.

If CP3 was so great this year, why were the Clippers 13-7 with a 5.77 SRS in the 20 games he missed this year?

Because they are actually quiet good without Paul already? But they also played +11 with Paul on the court this season, the highest OnCourt Net for all Clippers' players this season with reasonable minutes played. The Thunder were +8 with Durant. I don#t see how the playing level without a player would be interesting at all, when I can just simply use the numbers I have for those players when they are actually really playing. I want to know how good those players are, not judge them based on how good the team plays without them.
I saw a similar argument being made back for the 2008 season and Garnett. It didn't matter to me at that time that the Celtics played actually pretty good without him, all that mattered was how great they played with him.

So, yeah, I have Paul ahead of Durant, because he gives me slightly better odds of winning a championship than Durant.