A look back at December with Horford

[ATLHawksfan21]

It seems like it has been forever ago, but I remember watching this team in early December and seeing the best Hawks basketball that I have ever witnessed since becoming a fan. I decided to do some digging in to the stats on the 11 games we played with Horford in December.

First, our opponents and record. We went 7-4 in those 11 games which isn't overly impressive from first glance. A closer look in to the 7-4 and it seems to be quite impressive.

Here's the list of games with the point differential for each.

+10 vs LAC
+19 vs Cle
+2 vs Wash
+14 vs LAL
+17 vs SAC
+33 vs Utah
+2 vs Clev
-2 vs San Antonio
-9 vs OKC
-5 vs NYK
-2 vs Mia


Most of our wins were against lottery teams but since when have the Hawks regularly beat the teams that they were supposed to beat by double digits. This list of wins is impressive to me due to the straight beating we put on the majority of these teams.

We lost to San Antonio @ SAS on a Tim Duncan buzzer beater and we were without Korver. I am happy with that outcome any day. Our loss to Miami was a gift from the refs to Miami. I'm sure any one who remembers this game will agree that the refs favored Miami throughout the 4th quarter and were the only reason we didn't win this one. The OKC and NYK games were just bad losses. We didn't play well as a team in the OKC loss and we had 27 turnovers to 22 assists in the NYK loss with Milsap leading the team with 9 of his own. Melo just seems to always abuse us as well.

Team Stats

-We averaged 110.55 pts per game during this stretch and outscored our opponents by an average of 7.19 pts per game. The Clippers led the league in the regular season with an average of 107.90 pts per game.

-We averaged 29.09 assists per game and only 15.00 turnovers per game which leads to a 1.94 assist/to ratio. For the season, San Antonio led the league with 25.2 assist per game and Charlotte led the league with a 1.86 assist/to ratio. We finished with atleast 10 more assists than turnovers in 9 of the 11 games. I mentioned NYK previously and we only had 9 more assists than turnovers in the OKC game.

-We shot 41.72% from 3 on 27.45 attempts per game. Once again, this number would have been good for best in the league as San Antonio led the league shooting 39.7% from 3. We finished the season with a team average of 36.3% which was good for 13th overall.

Our big 3

Milsap
18.55 pts on 15.27 FGA/game 10.55 rebs

Horford
21.09 pts on 15.9 FGA/game on an insane 58.9 FG% 9.09 rebs

Teague
15.91 pts on 13.00 FGA/game 8.45 assists per game

Milsap and Horford basically averaged 40 points and 20 rebs combined. I think any team in the league would be satisfied to get that type of production out of their PF/C combo.

[ATLHawksfan21]

What's every one's thoughts on our play during this period. I think this sample of games gives us the best reflection as to how this team can play next year. We were a month in to the season and the schedule was fairly even throughout with 5 games against playoff teams and no crazy 4 games in 5 nights stretches.

We had back to back 4 games in 5 nights stretches while rotating home away home away each time to close November. Our guys were straight tired through the last leg of November and they finally got some rest going in to December.

[Jamaaliver]

What's every one's thoughts on our play during this period. I think this sample of games gives us the best reflection as to how this team can play next year. We were a month in to the season and the schedule was fairly even throughout with 5 games against playoff teams and no crazy 4 games in 5 nights stretches.

The NBA really screwed us on scheduling in late December. We had a 4 games in 5 days set, then two days off and then another 4 games in 5 days set. With all of the games going back and forth between home and away. We lost 4 of the last 5 of that 8 games in 12 days set. Bad losses to Boston and Orlando and a loss to the Wizards.

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=1300553&start=140

You sure about the scheduling? I can't look it up at work, but remember you stating other wise a few weeks ago...

[ATLHawksfan21]

What's every one's thoughts on our play during this period. I think this sample of games gives us the best reflection as to how this team can play next year. We were a month in to the season and the schedule was fairly even throughout with 5 games against playoff teams and no crazy 4 games in 5 nights stretches.

The NBA really screwed us on scheduling in late December. We had a 4 games in 5 days set, then two days off and then another 4 games in 5 days set. With all of the games going back and forth between home and away. We lost 4 of the last 5 of that 8 games in 12 days set. Bad losses to Boston and Orlando and a loss to the Wizards.

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=1300553&start=140

You sure about the scheduling? I can't look it up at work, but remember you stating other wise a few weeks ago...

lol. Jamaal gonna Jamaal I guess. Ok, so I made a typo in the previous thread. You could have easily looked up the scheduling in half the time it took to find the thread post but congrats to you for pointing out my prior typo. I commend you sir.

Now, would it be too much to ask for your thoughts on what I have posted above?

[Jamaaliver]

lol. Jamaal gonna Jamaal I guess. Ok, so I made a typo in the previous thread. You could have easily looked up the scheduling in half the time it took to find the thread post but congrats to you for pointing out my prior typo. I commend you sir.

Didn't realize it was a typo. Actually thought it was a flat out lie to make your point. I can't access legitimate sports sites at work to check the standings. Lucky to have access to the blogs. (Thanks to our marketing department!)

-I think Horford, if healthy, is a beast in our system.

-I think we need to try him out at PF just to see, for certain if their is any difference in ability, production, matchups.

-I think this stretch and our overall record at the time reflect one consistent issue...we are (were) a slightly above average ball club. With a slightly above avg record. We beat up on bad teams and lost to the top teams.

-I think Teague is a very solid PG. His production in our 'best month of the season' reinforces my thoughts on him.

I think Horford is the linchpin. It makes no sense that we haven't given him a starting caliber Center to play next to, or a dependable backup Center to relieve him.

Our team now is pretty untalented, but the pieces mesh together very well. We just need better players....and a Center.

[ATLHawksfan21]

lol. Jamaal gonna Jamaal I guess. Ok, so I made a typo in the previous thread. You could have easily looked up the scheduling in half the time it took to find the thread post but congrats to you for pointing out my prior typo. I commend you sir.

-I think this stretch and our overall record at the time reflect one consistent issue...we are (were) a slightly above average ball club. With a slightly above avg record. We beat up on bad teams and lost to the top teams.

I think we were playing much better than a slightly above average team. It's not like we were getting crushed by the best teams. The only bad loss against a playoff team was the loss to OKC by 9. In the other 4 matchups vs playoff teams we beat LAC by 10, Wash by 2, and loss to the 2 best teams in the league by a bucket each. We had no Korver vs the Spurs and it took a Duncan buzzer beater for us to lose. The Miami game was just a farce. We were in control of that game from start to finish until the refs stepped in in the 4th quarter and OT.

Really, our record should be considered 8-3. That's how bad the officiating was at the end of the Miami game.

I know it's a small sample size and that must be taken in to account, but we had the best offense in the league over that span vs the overall season leaders. 1st in points per game. 1st in assists per game. 1st in assists/turnover ratio. 1st in 3 pt %.

I remember watching those games and just being in absolute awe of how flawless our offense looked at times. We were legit unstoppable and this was with Teague playing badly throughout most of this stretch. He had a few huge games which skewed his stats back to the average but his stats were mediocre in most of the games.

[theatlfan]

From the eye-test, I would agree that we were developing into something special right before Horford went down. Just seemed like every night someone else would step up and step out and do something special.

Still, hindsight is 20/20 and hindsight does not look favorably on that run. Sure, we did some things, but what did we really do? When you break it down, the 7-4 overall was really boosted by being 6-1 against lottery teams and 6-1 at home. I guess you could say we were doing what we were supposed to be, but going 1-3 on the road or 1-3 against playoff teams also doesn't scream league elite either. We were hot enough to have an O that would challenge for elite status yet we were still far short of truly making noise.

As stated, I do agree with the eye test in that we were doing something, but after Horford went down, I really have no way of knowing if it was just a decent run when we were up against sub-par competition or if we were turning the corner as a team. I have a feeling we'll find out though...

[ATLHawksfan21]

From the eye-test, I would agree that we were developing into something special right before Horford went down. Just seemed like every night someone else would step up and step out and do something special.

Still, hindsight is 20/20 and hindsight does not look favorably on that run. Sure, we did some things, but what did we really do? When you break it down, the 7-4 overall was really boosted by being 6-1 against lottery teams and 6-1 at home. I guess you could say we were doing what we were supposed to be, but going 1-3 on the road or 1-3 against playoff teams also doesn't scream league elite either. We were hot enough to have an O that would challenge for elite status yet we were still far short of truly making noise.

As stated, I do agree with the eye test in that we were doing something, but after Horford went down, I really have no way of knowing if it was just a decent run when we were up against sub-par competition or if we were turning the corner as a team. I have a feeling we'll find out though...

We had two wins against playoff teams. LAC and Wash. We were robbed of a win against Miami and we lost on a buzzer beater to the Spurs on a night when Korver didn't play.

So we were 5-1 against lottery teams and 2-3 against playoff teams. Should be 3-2 if the refs call it fair. Also, its not like we were playing middle of the road playoff teams during that stretch. Miami, OKC, SAS and LAC were the 4 best teams in the league for most of the season. We had a chance to win every game in the final minute outside of the OKC game.

[theatlfan]

We had two wins against playoff teams. LAC and Wash. We were robbed of a win against Miami and we lost on a buzzer beater to the Spurs on a night when Korver didn't play.

So we were 5-1 against lottery teams and 2-3 against playoff teams. Should be 3-2 if the refs call it fair. Also, its not like we were playing middle of the road playoff teams during that stretch. Miami, OKC, SAS and LAC were the 4 best teams in the league for most of the season. We had a chance to win every game in the final minute outside of the OKC game.

Sorry, missed WASH. Still didn't answer the main point though: was it actual improvement or just a nice run? For instance, without Horford, we were 6-3 in April including going 3-2 against playoff teams including two big wins against the 1 and 2 seeds (while they were in a pitched battle) in the East and another one being a buzzer beater L against a hot CHAR team while we were resting 3 starters and the other 2 played about 2/3 their usual minutes. Sounds better to me than going 7-4 with the only two Ws against playoff teams being in games where they were missing a starter. Does having a nice streak in April mean that we were better without Horford since our run then was better than the penultimate run in December with Horford? No, of course not - just means we had a good run in April.

Still, as I said above, my eye test says that there was something deeper in the December run that simply can't be measured. Millsap and Horford were finally settling in next to each other and the effect was radiating out to the back court. The hope that we'd continue the run and build off of it through the rest of the season was real. I also agree that it's unfortunate that we'll never know...

[ATLHawksfan21]

We had two wins against playoff teams. LAC and Wash. We were robbed of a win against Miami and we lost on a buzzer beater to the Spurs on a night when Korver didn't play.

So we were 5-1 against lottery teams and 2-3 against playoff teams. Should be 3-2 if the refs call it fair. Also, its not like we were playing middle of the road playoff teams during that stretch. Miami, OKC, SAS and LAC were the 4 best teams in the league for most of the season. We had a chance to win every game in the final minute outside of the OKC game.

Sorry, missed WASH. Still didn't answer the main point though: was it actual improvement or just a nice run? For instance, without Horford, we were 6-3 in April including going 3-2 against playoff teams including two big wins against the 1 and 2 seeds (while they were in a pitched battle) in the East and another one being a buzzer beater L against a hot CHAR team while we were resting 3 starters and the other 2 played about 2/3 their usual minutes. Sounds better to me than going 7-4 with the only two Ws against playoff teams being in games where they were missing a starter. Does having a nice streak in April mean that we were better without Horford since our run then was better than the penultimate run in December with Horford? No, of course not - just means we had a good run in April.

Still, as I said above, my eye test says that there was something deeper in the December run that simply can't be measured. Millsap and Horford were finally settling in next to each other and the effect was radiating out to the back court. The hope that we'd continue the run and build off of it through the rest of the season was real. I also agree that it's unfortunate that we'll never know...

For me, the December run wasn't even about the record as much as it was about how dominant our offense was. The main point I was trying to make with this thread was the potential of our offense when Horford is healthy. As I mentioned previously, I thought the 11 game stretch in Dec. would be the best stretch to use since we were in a new system full of new players and they were just getting acclimated to things. The 8 games in 12 day stretch in November is a poor judging point since our guys had no legs for the 2nd half of the run.

I just saw something special in our offense during that run, something that I have never seen as a Hawks fan and I think we can consistently perform that well on offense. We played 29 games with Al this season and scored atleast 100 in 20 of those. 7 of the 9 games where we scored under 100 came during the 8 game in 12 days stretch.

Add a years experience within the system along with another off-season for Ferry and Bud to get more of "their" guys in and I don't see any reason why we can't match December's offensive production next season.