Can you see a scenario where the Wizards are a contender?

[dangermouse]

New coach (how many times this year did we blow games because of terrible Wittman™ rotations? plenty) (not very likely).

Beal improves (not sure about this one, he didnt have a soph slump but he didnt improve either... until the playoffs. i think he does, he is still so young and this is his 3rd year. i think he reaches all-star level next year but probably gets snubbed)

Wall continues to improve (i hope so, he played as well as he did last year imo. that jumper was wet at times. he just needs to realise he can get by most players who guard him. he needs to keep his dribble and stop jumping before he looks for the pass. either just try and finish the play yourself, or have an idea who is going to be open before you risk the TO by leaping into the air to draw the d)

LBJ goes West (unlikely)

Rose doesnt get back anywhere close to his old self (i'd bet on it)

Paul george continues to do the dirty with his team mates partners (likely)

[Deivy202]

as long as lebron-kobe-durant-melo -chris paul are playing on the league we will not win a finals.

Either wall or beal goes elite or we draft or sign a player to atleast 06 agent 0 player type than we wont go far.

Will see what happens tho.kevim love would be the ticket.

[verbal8]

But all and all if you added Durant, lebron or even melo they would compete- but honestly - the nba is all about mega stars. We need one!

What about a Wall/Melo/Love super team?

I actually might like it more with Deng vs. Melo. If it is done via trades, Gortat could be retained. I figure Beal would have to be sent out to acquire Love, especially to get some team to take Nene.

The way I would be interested in acquiring Melo would be extend and trade with him opting in to his bloated contract this year and getting a slightly below market extension. Factoring in the junk taken on to acquire Melo and Love, the team is probably ridiculously in the luxury tax this year. However being out of Nene's 13 million next season the luxury tax bill is probably more manageable. With Wall, Love, Gortat and Melo(even at fair rate) the luxury tax will be nearly unavoidable, especially if Ariza is retained. One option for Ariza would be to send him out in a S&T and use the cap space with a 2nd to acquire another piece via S&T.

[CobraCommander]

It seems we're talking about two different things. You are talking about next year, ie the 2014-2015 season specifically. I'm talking about the future in general moving forward.

The East is going to be tougher for the Wiz in 2015, but moving forward I don't see any teams poised to pull away from us in the conference, other than the potentials I discussed (Miami, Chicago, Indiana.. and even those teams have their own question marks)

Why is the Western conference so much better than the Eastern conference? Simple, because they have more superstars. The Spurs have had Duncan, OKC has KD and Westbrook, LAC has Griffin and Paul, Rockets have Dwight and Harden, Blazers have LMA and Lillard, Mavs have Dirk, etc. And thankfully Anthony Davis and Boogie Cousins landed out West.

When you look at the Eastern Conference, there are only 3 teams with a superstar talent (Miami, Indiana, and Chicago -with a giant asterisk).. Other than them there isn't any team with a core significantly better than ours moving forward. We don't know about Parker or Wiggins yet, or where they'll land. I'm not worried about teams like Atlanta, Brooklyn, etc because they aren't gonna be unbeatable juggernauts, and if we make smart moves in FA we can easily leapfrog all of them.

You guys are too pessimistic. If you told any team they could have two young, unselfish All-Star talents and capspace in the Eastern Conference, they'd take that situation all day

I think you hit the nail on the head. Now, if Wall/Beal become two superstars - then we are having a different conversation.

Clearly that is what has to happen - and what we hope happens.

I don't see that as pessimism. I think we the OP asked can we become a contender - have a chance to win it all. The scenario has to be we have a couple of superstars.

We don't need Wall and Beal to be 'superstars' like Lebron/KD-level.. when the Celtics Big three won, I wouldn't have considered Allen or Pierce 'superstars' at the time. No one on the Pistons championship team was a superstar..

We just need them to be really good, to buy into what we do and fit our system perfectly, to play defense. Tony Parker isn't a 'superstar' in the classic sense, but he's been considered an MVP-caliber player because of how well he fits into what the Spurs do. That's the level we need Wall to play at.

We're going to need a third really good player at some point, but I don't think we necessarily need a bonafide all-time great superstar on the team to contend.

The Pacers really only have one remotely superstar player (and he's not even consistently on that level) and they were #1 seed in the East and contenders. The team is just built really well. A couple years ago they might have been saying "Oh man, we don't have a superstar and this Paul George kid only averages 12ppg. We'll never be contenders".. look at them now.

I waited to respond but honestly the Indiana pacers are not contenders. They wouldn't beat any of the 8 playoff teams out west and Miami, while flawed with a old wade and a foolish shot selection Bosh - the heat still gonna get them 4-1.

The wiz will be better than Indiana next year but still need a mega star like melo or Durant to be the primary scorer . Right now wall is our best scorer and even tho people keep talking about the pistons winning with no mega star- that's a one time thing guys-

One other way we could win- steal pop from San Antonio !

[Illmatic12]

I think you hit the nail on the head. Now, if Wall/Beal become two superstars - then we are having a different conversation.

Clearly that is what has to happen - and what we hope happens.

I don't see that as pessimism. I think we the OP asked can we become a contender - have a chance to win it all. The scenario has to be we have a couple of superstars.

We don't need Wall and Beal to be 'superstars' like Lebron/KD-level.. when the Celtics Big three won, I wouldn't have considered Allen or Pierce 'superstars' at the time. No one on the Pistons championship team was a superstar..

We just need them to be really good, to buy into what we do and fit our system perfectly, to play defense. Tony Parker isn't a 'superstar' in the classic sense, but he's been considered an MVP-caliber player because of how well he fits into what the Spurs do. That's the level we need Wall to play at.

We're going to need a third really good player at some point, but I don't think we necessarily need a bonafide all-time great superstar on the team to contend.

The Pacers really only have one remotely superstar player (and he's not even consistently on that level) and they were #1 seed in the East and contenders. The team is just built really well. A couple years ago they might have been saying "Oh man, we don't have a superstar and this Paul George kid only averages 12ppg. We'll never be contenders".. look at them now.

I waited to respond but honestly the Indiana pacers are not contenders. They wouldn't beat any of the 8 playoff teams out west and Miami, while flawed with a old wade and a foolish shot selection Bosh - the heat still gonna get them 4-1.

The wiz will be better than Indiana next year but still need a mega star like melo or Durant to be the primary scorer . Right now wall is our best scorer and even tho people keep talking about the pistons winning with no mega star- that's a one time thing guys-

One other way we could win- steal pop from San Antonio !

Indiana has the strongest defense in the league, won 56 games (including numerous wins over elite West teams) and they were #1 seed in the conference. Their play can be inconsistent, but you'll have to point to more than some inconsistent playoff games to prove that a team with their profile isn't a contender.

They should be up 2-0 on the Heat right now, and I still think that series is going 7.

Indiana could beat a number of West teams, they handled OKC at full strength in April. They have a stifling defense, when George and Stephenson play to their potential offensively Indy can beat anyone.

[FreeBalling]

as long as lebron-kobe-durant-melo -chris paul are playing on the league we will not win a finals.

Either wall or beal goes elite or we draft or sign a player to atleast 06 agent 0 player type than we wont go far.

Will see what happens tho.kevim love would be the ticket.

Kobe? Are you still running Windows 2000 or XP service pack 1.

[FreeBalling]

We were six wins from the ECF. If we brought in someone like Love / Traded Nene / Built a strong 2nd team like the bulls have. I can see us making the finals.

The players love Witt and his leadership, for some reason the non-nba players on this board forget the players wants and needs..


Now that the Wizards have won some playoff games and our future seems to have more playoffs runs. Other player will consider making DC a landing spot.

[CobraCommander]

We don't need Wall and Beal to be 'superstars' like Lebron/KD-level.. when the Celtics Big three won, I wouldn't have considered Allen or Pierce 'superstars' at the time. No one on the Pistons championship team was a superstar..

We just need them to be really good, to buy into what we do and fit our system perfectly, to play defense. Tony Parker isn't a 'superstar' in the classic sense, but he's been considered an MVP-caliber player because of how well he fits into what the Spurs do. That's the level we need Wall to play at.

We're going to need a third really good player at some point, but I don't think we necessarily need a bonafide all-time great superstar on the team to contend.

The Pacers really only have one remotely superstar player (and he's not even consistently on that level) and they were #1 seed in the East and contenders. The team is just built really well. A couple years ago they might have been saying "Oh man, we don't have a superstar and this Paul George kid only averages 12ppg. We'll never be contenders".. look at them now.

I waited to respond but honestly the Indiana pacers are not contenders. They wouldn't beat any of the 8 playoff teams out west and Miami, while flawed with a old wade and a foolish shot selection Bosh - the heat still gonna get them 4-1.

The wiz will be better than Indiana next year but still need a mega star like melo or Durant to be the primary scorer . Right now wall is our best scorer and even tho people keep talking about the pistons winning with no mega star- that's a one time thing guys-

One other way we could win- steal pop from San Antonio !

Indiana has the strongest defense in the league, won 56 games (including numerous wins over elite West teams) and they were #1 seed in the conference. Their play can be inconsistent, but you'll have to point to more than some inconsistent playoff games to prove that a team with their profile isn't a contender.

They should be up 2-0 on the Heat right now, and I still think that series is going 7.

Indiana could beat a number of West teams, they handled OKC at full strength in April. They have a stifling defense, when George and Stephenson play to their potential offensively Indy can beat anyone.

Indy may not win another game this series. I don't see what you see in Indy. I saw a cohesive unit that played well together until they started disrespecting each other in private -

[payitforward]

+1 Nate. You really need some top tier talent to contend. The clippers have 3 all-nba caliber players, are as deep as any team in the league, have one of the few coaches in the league that actually has a ring and they still aren't within striking range.

The Clippers are in the West. They would have easily come out of the East this year, heck even a team like GSW would have likely come out of the East this year.

We don't have to build a team as loaded as the Clippers to be a contender. Look at the Pacers, they only have 1 legitimate All-Star.

No, not if were planning to bring everyone back as planned. As Beal and Wall improve, it's going to be offset by an aging front line and Ariza not being in a contract year. And if were keeping Ariza & stuck with Webster, Porter is likely not to develop or be eventually traded for pennies on the dollar.

I'm afraid this past two weeks may be as good as it gets under this current regime.

As good as it gets? Who is our bigtime competition in the East? We won 44 games this season and nearly made the ECF. A team with two All-Stars is always gonna be capable of making a run in this conf, and we'll have two All-Stars for the next 5+ years. On top of that, we're probably gonna be closer to adding a top-end star than most teams because of our attractive backcourt (assuming we maintain some financial flexibility)

People keep taking the #Sowizards pessimistic viewpoint, but when you look around at the rest of our competition we aren't in a bad place at all. I agree that we have to let Ariza walk though

Ariza was our best player this year -- by a lot. That oh so great 44 win season was achieved on his back, not Wall's or Gortat's. Lose him and we are worse.

And, no, we aren't going to "maintain some financial flexibility." To maintain it, you have to have it in the first place! We don't.

[payitforward]

It's curious that the 2 biggest Ernie supporters at this point, LyricalRico and Hands, the guys who think things are going just great, haven't weighed in.

In Hands case, the reason is obvious -- if he said yes, he'd have to be on the record with a specific prediction. When it proved wrong, he'd have to figure out how to maintain that that was what he "has been saying all along."

But... where is LyricalRico -- tell us what you think!

[queridiculo]

Blow it up.

It's the only way this team has a chance of becoming a legit contender.

Sign and trade Ariza/Gortat for picks and cap space in 2015, pursue Patrick Patterson on a hometown play, attempt to bring back Okafor, and fill out the roster with scrubs to maintain salary cap flexibility in 2015.

[nate33]

Blow it up.

It's the only way this team has a chance of becoming a legit contender.

Sign and trade Ariza/Gortat for picks and cap space in 2015, pursue Patrick Patterson on a hometown play, attempt to bring back Okafor, and fill out the roster with scrubs to maintain salary cap flexibility in 2015.

Ariza and Gortat have minimal S&T value. You would need to find an over-the-cap team who needs a SF or and would be willing to pay Ariza or Gortat more than they believe they can get in free agency. And at that price, I suspect the S&T incentive would be a 2nd round pick or maybe a very late 1st. And we don't preserve cap flexibility if we go around signing guys like Patrick Patterson or Okafor to MLE-sized deals.

I think, at best, we could try to maintain some type of "holding pattern" in preparation for 2015 by trading Gortat for somebody like Tyson Chandler (was it barelyawake or PIF that advocates this?). Chandler could hold down the fort at center for a year before his contract expires in 2015. But even that scenario is unlikely because New York is also looking at a 2015 window.

I think there is virtually no chance that we intentionally allow Gortat and Ariza to walk. Somebody might offer a wild overpay that we don't match, but we're not going to let them go away without offering market value first. But even if we do pay them reasonable deals ($11M per year for Gortat, $8M per for Ariza) we can still maintain some level of cap flexibility if we dump Nene and Webster for 2015 contracts. That would be my preference.

[CobraCommander]

Blow it up.

It's the only way this team has a chance of becoming a legit contender.

Sign and trade Ariza/Gortat for picks and cap space in 2015, pursue Patrick Patterson on a hometown play, attempt to bring back Okafor, and fill out the roster with scrubs to maintain salary cap flexibility in 2015.

Ariza and Gortat have minimal S&T value. You would need to find an over-the-cap team who needs a SF or and would be willing to pay Ariza or Gortat more than they believe they can get in free agency. And at that price, I suspect the S&T incentive would be a 2nd round pick or maybe a very late 1st. And we don't preserve cap flexibility if we go around signing guys like Patrick Patterson or Okafor to MLE-sized deals.

I think, at best, we could try to maintain some type of "holding pattern" in preparation for 2015 by trading Gortat for somebody like Tyson Chandler (was it barelyawake or PIF that advocates this?). Chandler could hold down the fort at center for a year before his contract expires in 2015. But even that scenario is unlikely because New York is also looking at a 2015 window.

I think there is virtually no chance that we intentionally allow Gortat and Ariza to walk. Somebody might offer a wild overpay that we don't match, but we're not going to let them go away without offering market value first. But even if we do pay them reasonable deals ($11M per year for Gortat, $8M per for Ariza) we can still maintain some level of cap flexibility if we dump Nene and Webster for 2015 contracts. That would be my preference.

If we blow it up- welcome to perpetual rebuilding just like most of my childhood and young adult life with wiz- in a star driven league rebuilding is a fantasy. You draft and get lucky or hit the free agent lotto. But to hit the lotto it seems you need a city and/or a superstar or team worth coming to. We are poised to get a free agent and be in a holding pattern of good games worthy of watching in February (major improvement over the post guns in locker room days) until Durant comes home or beal/wall evolve into supersayians.