Kevin Love Free Agency/Trade Thread

[Devilzsidewalk]

What do you guys think about a trade with the Hornets for Love. I actually think he wouldn't mind coming to the weaker east and teaming up with his old buddy Big Al.

I know there are other deals that you'd prefer involving either higher picks or better players. Are any of the pieces below intriguing or would you just say, "no thanks" and hang up the phone as the GM?

Available from Charlotte:

Picks: #9, #24, #45, future picks
Players: Zeller, Biyombo, Neal, Henderson, Haywood (his contract balloons into a $10.5M "dust chip" after next season)

Also I just wanted to add that I hope you guys can work something out and he actually stays in Minnesota. I enjoy watching your team play on league pass.

Zeller/Henderson/Biyombo/Neal/#9 for Love/Budinger works for me. Good luck with that Love with extension. Shouldn't be a problem though as Love is a HUGE Nascar fan (Nascar HOF is in Charlotte) as well as being a devout follower of the teachings of Billy Graham (Charlotte is Billy Graham's birthplace).

[Mattya]

If those are the assets coming back I would need Kevin Martin going out as well.

[mondry]

I posted this in the trade board, but I thought it would be useful and interesting here, too.

All info from here: http://www.nbawowy.com (side not: I just found this site, and it's really cool).

Wolves w/ Rubio, Love, and Pek = 109.138 Points per 100 possession (found by dividing total points by total possession times 100)

Wolves w/ Rubio and Pek but w/o Love = 105.397 Points per 100 possession

Wolves w/ Rubio but w/o Love or Pek = 111.279 Points per 100 possession

Wolves w/ Love and Pek but w/o Rubio = 101.522 Points per 100 possession

Clearly Rubio's lack of shooting DOES NOT hurt the Wolves (at least not as much as has been stated here), and everything else Rubio does helps the Wolves offense a lot.

Obviously the sample size without Love (and especially without Love or Pekovic) is very small, but these numbers suggest that trading Love (and Pekovic) and building the team around Rubio might not be as painful going forward as one might expect.

Suddenly my Love for Ibaka deal makes even more sense, to get an elite defender and paint protector who still averaged 15.1 PPG with Westbrook. Seems like the much improved defense would make up for the 4 or so point difference "Wolves with rubio and pek / without Love" stat has compared to with him. That's not even accounting for the difference in Ibaka and Cunningham's offensive game. (assuming that's who played PF when love was out, I can't really remember)

That is why I simply don't think a Rubio team can tank. If you sign a guy for 1 million and put him next to Rubio he'll play like a 2 million player, a 2 million player will play like a 3.5 million player, etc.

With Rubio we don't need all these 1 way offensive players like Love and Martin and instead DEFENSE and athletic ability should be the name of the game while giving Rubio a lot of freedom and room so he can work his magic like he did early on in his career. He made a bunch of bad to mediocre guys look pretty serviceable.

Blake Griffin is another name I like next to Rubio for his insane athletic ability but when it comes down to it both him and Ibaka likely aren't available, even with Love on the table. I do think we should build around Rubio whether Love stays or not. Trading Love however, is probably the quickest way to turn this into a Rubio team and set us up to do that.

I know people here don't like the Bulls trade, and the only game I've probably seen of the bulls is the one or two (whatever it is) that they play us so I know nothing about them. But it sounds like a couple of the guys we could get from them might fit the bill of guys that would flourish with Rubio / play defense. Given these stats and how it looks like Rubio can make anything work offensively, do we still hate the Bulls trade?

[Devilzsidewalk]

If those are the assets coming back I would need Kevin Martin going out as well.

Probably won't even be as good as that. I heavily overestimated what we'd get for KG and Big Al; I shan't let them sucker me again.

[chabber]

What do you guys think about a trade with the Hornets for Love. I actually think he wouldn't mind coming to the weaker east and teaming up with his old buddy Big Al.

I know there are other deals that you'd prefer involving either higher picks or better players. Are any of the pieces below intriguing or would you just say, "no thanks" and hang up the phone as the GM?

Available from Charlotte:

Picks: #9, #24, #45, future picks
Players: Zeller, Biyombo, Neal, Henderson, Haywood (his contract balloons into a $10.5M "dust chip" after next season)

Also I just wanted to add that I hope you guys can work something out and he actually stays in Minnesota. I enjoy watching your team play on league pass.

Zeller/Henderson/Biyombo/Neal/#9 for Love/Budinger works for me. Good luck with that Love with extension. Shouldn't be a problem though as Love is a HUGE Nascar fan (Nascar HOF is in Charlotte) as well as being a devout follower of the teachings of Billy Graham (Charlotte is Billy Graham's birthplace).

I was unaware of that actually. I'm not a Nascar fan and I don't care about Billy Graham other than the road named after him, but if you think it'd weigh on his decision making then it sounds good to me.

Maybe he wants to be in a big market but if he just wants to sign with a team that could make the playoffs consistently, the east is wide open. If the Hornets could land a guy in free agency like Stevenson to go along with him, they'd have the wings that could help mask the defensive deficiencies inherit in starting Love and Al together. Maybe the Hornets could find it worth the risk?

Kemba
Stevenson/Martin
MKG/CDR/Taylor
Love/McRoberts
Jefferson

If those are the assets coming back I would need Kevin Martin going out as well.

That would work in the trade checker if you were ok with taking back Haywood as well. He's near $2M next year on the books but then his contract balloons to $10.5M the year after. There is a window during the summer when you can trade him for that big number and the team he's traded to can then cut him before his contract is guaranteed for the rest of the year. Essentially it would allow you to possibly pick up a player of value in return from a team trying to shed salary.

[Gideon]

Some notes about the proposed Bulls trade, since I'm one of its biggest supporters. The same sorts of advanced metrics that are (correctly IMO) being used to show how valuable Rubio is also show that Gibson and Butler are very good players, with Gibson likely having all-star level value.

Gibson:

24th in Real Plus Minus (one spot behind Ibaka, one spot ahead of Gortat)

28th in Wins Above Replacement (one spot behind Melo, one spot ahead of Wall)

On/Off last season was +4.9 (which is good, but not great)... however Gibson's on/off the two previous seasons was +8.1 and +9.6 respectively (which makes him +7.0 over the last 3 seasons combined), which is very impressive. By comparison, for players with a reasonable minimum sample size under their belts, the highest career average on/offs since the stat started being calculated are (1) KG (+11.7) (2) LeBron (+11.2) and (3) Dirk (+11.1). Other career on/offs of the last decade's biggest stars are: CP3 (+9.0), Duncan (+8.3), Nash (+7.5), and Kobe (+6.7). To be fair, the stat is pretty hard to really put into context, (for example, Durant is oddly low), and Gibson's career on/off is only +4.4 (since his first two seasons were close to neutral)... but I still think a 3-season on/off of +7.0 is definitely noteworthy.

Pace Adjusted (to T-Wolves Pace) Per 36 Stats: 17.7 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 1.5 apg, 0.6 spg, 1.8 bpg

Butler

70th in Real Plus Minus (one spot behind Millsap, one spot ahead of Z-Bo)

56th in Wins Above Replacement (one spot behind Westbrook, one spot ahead of Draymond Green)

On/Off last season was +6.6, and his career On/Off (3 seasons) is +6.1, which (as with Gibson) definitely points towards an impressive impact even if the stat can't be conclusively interpreted in a vacuum.

Pace Adjusted (to T-Wolves Pace) Per 36 Stats: 13.2 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.9 spg, 0.5 bpg

And, just for fun, potential starters next season by WAR:

PG: Rubio (4th among all PGs, 10.78)
SG: Butler (9th among all SGs, 6.74)
SF: Brewer (15th among all SFs, 6.01)
PF: Gibson (10th among all PFs, 8.74)
C: Pekovic (10th among all Cs, 6.39)

Yeah, I know we'd probably want to bring Brewer off the bench to have more spacing in the starting line-up, that Dieng is likely to usurp the starting C position, and that there's zero context to the above other than individual performance last season in one advanced metric. Still, doesn't that look damn good? That's almost 40 wins above replacement for those five guys combined. I insist that the CHI trade would in no way, shape, or form be a rebuilding or treadmill decision -- we'd absolutely have the talent necessary to compete, and our core would include many underrated players who provide significant positive impact in non-traditional ways.

[mondry]

Quick notes about the proposed Bulls trade, since I'm one of its biggest supporters. The same advanced metrics that are (correctly IMO) being used to show how valuable Rubio is also show that Gibson and Butler are very good players, with Gibson likely having all-star level value.

Gibson:

24th in Real Plus Minus (one spot behind Ibaka, one spot ahead of Gortat)

28th in Wins Above Replacement (one spot behind Melo, one spot ahead of Wall)

On/Off last season was +4.9 (which is good, but not great)... however Gibson's on/off the two previous seasons was +8.1 and +9.6 respectively (which makes him +7.0 over the last 3 seasons combined), which is very impressive. By comparison, for players with a reasonable minimum sample size under their belts, the highest career average on/offs since the stat started being calculated are (1) KG (+11.7) (2) LeBron (+11.2) and (3) Dirk (+11.1). Other career on/offs of the last decade's biggest stars are: CP3 (+9.0), Duncan (+8.3), Nash (+7.5), and Kobe (+6.7). To be fair, the stat is pretty hard to really put into context, (for example, Durant is oddly low), and Gibson's career on/off is only +4.4 (since his first two seasons were close to neutral)... but I still think a 3-season on/off of +7.0 is definitely noteworthy.

Pace Adjusted (to T-Wolves Pace) Per 36 Stats: 17.7 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 1.5 apg, 0.6 spg, 1.8 bpg

Butler

70th in Real Plus Minus (one spot behind Millsap, one spot ahead of Z-Bo)

56th in Wins Above Replacement (one spot behind Westbrook, one spot ahead of Draymond Green)

On/Off last season was +6.6, and his career On/Off (3 seasons) is +6.1, which (as with Gibson) definitely points towards an impressive impact even if the stat can't be conclusively interpreted in a vacuum.

Pace Adjusted (to T-Wolves Pace) Per 36 Stats: 13.2 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.9 spg, 0.5 bpg

Thanks for that, I like the idea of those two but it'd depend on the rest of the package!

[Gideon]

snip

Thanks for that, I like the idea of those two but it'd depend on the rest of the package!

Glad you found it interesting. I agree it would depend on the rest of the package. Despite my fondness for Gibson/Butler, I would still think we'd need at least two first round picks from the Bulls (and/or Mirotic, if he'll play for us) before I feel like we say yes. Just figured I'd end up writing a novel if I got into the reasons I value multiple mid-firsts over a single mid-lotto pick again

[AQuintus]

I posted this in the trade board, but I thought it would be useful and interesting here, too.

All info from here: http://www.nbawowy.com (side not: I just found this site, and it's really cool).

Wolves w/ Rubio, Love, and Pek = 109.138 Points per 100 possession (found by dividing total points by total possession times 100)

Wolves w/ Rubio and Pek but w/o Love = 105.397 Points per 100 possession

Wolves w/ Rubio but w/o Love or Pek = 111.279 Points per 100 possession

Wolves w/ Love and Pek but w/o Rubio = 101.522 Points per 100 possession

Clearly Rubio's lack of shooting DOES NOT hurt the Wolves (at least not as much as has been stated here), and everything else Rubio does helps the Wolves offense a lot.

Adding on to this, but with defense:

Rubio on: 106 Opponent Points per 100 Possessions
Rubio off: 107.4 Opponent Points per 100 Possessions

Rubio on, Love off: 104.6 Opponent Points per 100 Possessions
Rubio off, Love off: 106.6 Opponent Points per 100 Possessions

Love on: 106.6 Opponent Points per 100 Possessions
Love off: 106 Opponent Points per 100 Possessions

[Krapinsky]

I'm very dubious of a Bulls trade because I'd worry that the players aren't as good away from Thibs. Augustin was nearly out of the NBA and Thibs makes him awesome. Asik seemed better with Thibs. So did Deng.

[AQuintus]

I'm very dubious of a Bulls trade because I'd worry that the players aren't as good away from Thibs. Augustin was nearly out of the NBA and Thibs makes him awesome. Asik seemed better with Thibs. So did Deng.

This is why I'm always wary about in suggested trades for Spurs players.

[karch34]

for a better piece.

Such as?

I didn't have anything specific, but could see a sign and trade with Detroit for Monroe with us giving back Bud, expirings, 17 and a 2015. Gets them a pick back this year and Bud/SF at 17 slot in better with smith, Drummond, KCP, and Jennings.

[karch34]

I'm very dubious of a Bulls trade because I'd worry that the players aren't as good away from Thibs. Augustin was nearly out of the NBA and Thibs makes him awesome. Asik seemed better with Thibs. So did Deng.

This is why I'm always wary about in suggested trades for Spurs players.

Agree. I think they get a lot of guys that look good in their system, but they have them in such specific roles it doesn't always translate.

[stjf]

I don't know if this has been suggested before. I can't imagine it is worse than previous offers, but i've been known to view some talent differently than others.

The hangup on the deal with Golden State seems to be David Lee, and/or the unwillingness on GSW's part to include Klay Thompson. With that said, I present a deal with Thompson and without David Lee.

To Minnesota: Thompson, Iguodala, Speights (team option on 2015-16), and cash.
To Golden State: Love, Minnesota's preferred contract to dump (Martin or Budinger), the draft rights to #13 if Stauskas is available, and a 2nd round pick (you've got 3, you won't miss one ).

GSW hope Stauskas can turn into Thompson offensively. Minnesota go with the proven player in Thompson, who is a fringe All-Star under team control for 5+ more seasons.

Iguodala ranked 3rd among all players in Real Plus Minus and 10th in Wins Above Replacement. (3rd among SF, behind Lebron and Durant). His deal is team friendly, in that he's paid less every year; although some argue he's overpaid based on points/assists/rebounds production (RPM and WAR suggest otherwise). Iguodala's veteran presence may help convince a free agent to buy into a young core of Rubio/Thompson, if Minnesota trade Pekovic to free up cap space for a max offer next year (Marc Gasol?).

[AQuintus]

I didn't have anything specific, but could see a sign and trade with Detroit for Monroe with us giving back Bud, expirings, 17 and a 2015. Gets them a pick back this year and Bud/SF at 17 slot in better with smith, Drummond, KCP, and Jennings.

3 things:

1) Thanks for at least attempting to make an actual trade. It's very easy to make vague hypothetical. It's much harder to come up with something specific, but it's the specifics that matter since the specific trades are possible, whereas the vague hypothetical probably aren't.

2) I'd be really surprised if they gave up Monroe for so little.

3) With Pek and Dieng already on the roster, his fit here is even worse than his fit there.

[AQuintus]

To Minnesota: Thompson, Iguodala, Speights (team option on 2015-16), and cash.
To Golden State: Love, Minnesota's preferred contract to dump (Martin or Budinger), the draft rights to #13 if Stauskas is available, and a 2nd round pick (you've got 3, you won't miss one ).

That's even worse than the normal GS trade. As much as I like Iggy, his age and salary doesn't fit what we'd want going forward without Love. There's zero good reasons to include #13 with Love.

Really, the hangup (at least mine) isn't so much Lee (though he's a factor) as it is a lack of value in general.

Thompson is a decent, but not great prospect - certainly not good enough to be a centerpiece in a trade for a star, Barnes is a bust, and the lack of a HIGH pick coming back plus the lack of salary relief (your trade adds salary) makes GS a no go in my mind.

[criteriado]

I'm very dubious of a Bulls trade because I'd worry that the players aren't as good away from Thibs. Augustin was nearly out of the NBA and Thibs makes him awesome. Asik seemed better with Thibs. So did Deng.

Augustin wasn't great. His defense was still terrible, but they were playing Teague before him, so...it's obvious that even below average was a huge improvement over awful production.

[CelticsPride18]

What is the length of Budinger contract and what happened to him I thought he was a good player?

[AQuintus]

What is the length of Budinger contract and what happened to him I thought he was a good player?

2 more years (2nd year is a player option) at $5 million per year. He's a solid rotation player when healthy, good at cutting, shooting, and a finisher on the break, but he's had knee issues the last 2 years.

[AQuintus]

How would everyone feel about this:

C - N.Pekovic, G.Dieng, R.Turiaf
PF- A.Gordon(#6), J.Sullinger, B.Bass
SF- S.Muhammad, C.Brewer, L.R.Mbah a Moute
SG- E.Gordon, N.Stauskas(#13), O.Jeffers
PG- R.Rubio, R.Sessions (MLE), A.Shved

Trades:

BOS GETS: K.Love + C.Budinger
MIN GETS: #6(Aaron Gordon) + J.Sullinger, J.Anthony + B.Bass + K.Bogans + picks (from Brooklyn via Boston)

CHA GETS: K.Martin
NOP GETS: B.Haywood + J.J.Barea + G.Neal + J.Anthony
MIN GETS: E.Gordon + Pick (protected from NOP)

It's the normal Boston trade (minus the #17 and TPE, allowing Boston to improve their roster further after a Love trade) + we move Barea and Martin to take a flier on E.Gordon (young, 25, high volume 39% 3-point shooter) + a protected pick. Charlotte moves some expirings to get a great fit that helps their next playoff run in Martin, and NOP breaks down Gordon's big 2 year deal into a bunch of smaller expiring contracts at the cost of a protected pick.

Edit: Also, if Gordon doesn't work out, he turns into a huge ($14 million) expiring next year. If he does work out, we should be able to sign him to a much smaller contract in 2 years.