Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing (Part 2)

[Brenice]

Picking Westbrook does not make Presti an expert. He's a good pick in a deep draft. Take away Durant and they are not championship contenders. People want to make Beal an obvious pick but Westbrook a find for agenda purposes when they are both good picks where the GM had other good choices and would not have been wrong in selecting them. Where would OKC be if Portland had selected Durant and left OKC with Greg Oden?

[FAH1223]

Picking Westbrook does not make Presti an expert. He's a good pick in a deep draft. Take away Durant and they are not championship contenders. People want to make Beal an obvious pick but Westbrook a find for agenda purposes when they are both good picks where the GM had other good choices and would not have been wrong in selecting them. Where would OKC be if Portland had selected Durant and left OKC with Greg Oden?

In Seattle.

[dckingsfan]

What the Suns did/didn't do - doesn't excuse EG for his incompetence.

And the Suns would have been in the playoffs this year sans the injury to Bledsoe. So your point is moot.

No. My point is not moot.

Ah, so you don't like straw man arguments either

[hands11]

Picking Westbrook does not make Presti an expert. He's a good pick in a deep draft. Take away Durant and they are not championship contenders. People want to make Beal an obvious pick but Westbrook a find for agenda purposes when they are both good picks where the GM had other good choices and would not have been wrong in selecting them. Where would OKC be if Portland had selected Durant and left OKC with Greg Oden?

With Westbrook, Harden, Ibeka ?

And you know what another interesting questions is...

Where are they with KD and Westbrook. We are about to find out. If they lose their next game. Youch.

[hands11]

What the Suns did/didn't do - doesn't excuse EG for his incompetence.

And the Suns would have been in the playoffs this year sans the injury to Bledsoe. So your point is moot.

No. My point is not moot.

Ah, so you don't like straw man arguments either

I'm done with you, your strawman crapola, and all that comes with it. You don't even understand what it means.

And you never did explain what your SN means. What is DC Kings Fan ?

[payitforward]

Something about PIF love or similar poster - gotta stay loyal to the, its all sucks fan club - ASFC (tm)...

I can't wait for the day -- coming sooner than you think -- when once again you blow with the wind and start criticizing Ernie. Would be easy to point to your "it all sucks" posts, but not worth it.

And, once again, when "I like being right" Hands has his mistakes pointed out to him -- and they are legion, they abound, and they are balanced by very few cases in which you were right -- those are usually on the order of "it's better that we won than if we had lost", i.e. not too controversial!

I thought you people were all about results. Well they went from Ted/Wall in 2010 to 2nd round 2 wins against the #1 seed that had a 56-26 record, in just 4 years. Most sensible people would call that success.

Like I say, that's your big point. Winning is better than losing. Very perspicacious, Hands -- congratulations! you are right. Beating the Bulls was fun, even though they were significantly short-handed (that's just part of the game). Winning the 1st game vs. Indy was more than fun -- it was awesome: sweet smell of success!!!

Losing 4 of the next 5 not so much... but hey only one team goes home totally happy each year.

But, no, Hands -- going from a bad team to an average team (after all, in the West we wouldn't even have been in the playoffs, right?) in 4 years by getting 2 lucky ping pong ball bounces, utterly throwing away the 2011 draft, trading away your future assets, and shoving yourself right up against the luxury tax? I disagree -- I don't think "most sensible people would call that success." I think they'd call it blinking instead of rebuilding.

Now its not like I started about this yesterday. I started on this while Abe still owned the team. And I said over and over and over they would only get better once the team was sold. I said wait until we have a new owner then lets see how the team does. A+EG=R1 vs T+EG=R2 solve the formula

R2 is much better then R1. No question about it.

Umm... we went to R2 one time in the previous regime; we've gone one time in this regime. So... what's your point? I mean... what's your point other than saying pretty much nothing and then insisting that that's what you've been saying all along.

Just as you've been saying all along that Chris Singleton had what it took to be an NBA starter -- as a rookie no less! And that Maynor really wasn't such a bad signing. And that Seraphin would have a breakout year this year, and... but you never respond to those points, do you?

Most typical of you is saying a) "Vesely will be our Franchise player" (note that his name is spelled with a V not a W, as in Wall, or a B, as in Beal.

You did say that, right? Wouldn't you agree that saying something totally different now ("it was always all about Wall and Beal") means that you actually *haven't* been saying the same thing all along?

Not to mention that you also say that you really wanted Vucevic instead of Vesely!! .

I'm not even hung up on them keeping EG if Ted wants to change...

...its more about lucking into the #1 or top 3 at the right time.

...I trust Wall to be a core piece as a talent and a franchise face. ...They will always be able to attract talent with those two (i.e. Wall plus Beal). Picks or no picks. Plus Otto is going to be a solid 3rd piece.

...The window is large. There will be lots of options over the next 6 years.

...They don't need to do it all next year but I expect stable to increased results. I would be buy stock if the Wizards were one given where they would be price right now and I would expect a profit over the next 3 years. Maybe the lose TA. Maybe Gortat. Maybe both. Maybe that causes a step back. Doesn't matter.

Wall, Beal, Otto, Ted. That's what matters.

More deep analysis -- you've been saying all along it's about Wall and Beal. Except when you were saying the opposite about Wall. And about Beal. Your crystal ball (you've been using it all along, it never fails you) sees Otto's future (note: I thought he was the right pick -- did you?). Is that the same crystal ball you used to say Vesely was our franchise player? Seraphin was going to have a breakout year? Jordan Crawford was the real deal? Etc. etc. etc. ad infinitum.

"Stable to increased results" -- in other words, next year we'll go to 6 games in R2 or better. That's what you say you expect. But 2 lines later, we might take a step back, and that "doesn't matter."

Hands, is there anything you really want to commit to? You're even weaseling out of your critique of Wittman!

Oh, btw, remember when you used to write that there was no reason whatever to worry about Nene being able to deliver minutes? Were you right? And when I and others wrote that it seemed unlikely he'd play heavy minutes, I suppose we were wrong? I mean... even though we were right?

[Brenice]

Whereas the better GMs are always in the mix - including Presti - the difference is he puts his teams repeatedly in the discussion for NBA championships - and when he misses - they are only in the conference finals.

Because he was lucky enough to have Kevin Durant fall in his lap. Are you giving Presti credit for drafting Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook? That sure makes him a genius.

Serge Ibaka, Thabo Sefolosha, Jeremy Lamb, Perry Jones, Steven Adams, James Harden

So yeah - duh!

He gets credit for Ibaka. The rest don't make him a genius. Your genius missed on DeAndre Jordan in the 2nd round of the 2008 draft. Who did Presti select? The genius of Presti is Durant and Westbrook, nothing more, nothing less.

[payitforward]

Because he was lucky enough to have Kevin Durant fall in his lap. Are you giving Presti credit for drafting Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook? That sure makes him a genius.

Serge Ibaka, Thabo Sefolosha, Jeremy Lamb, Perry Jones, Steven Adams, James Harden

So yeah - duh!

He gets credit for Ibaka. The rest don't make him a genius. Your genius missed on DeAndre Jordan in the 2nd round of the 2008 draft. Who did Presti select? The genius of Presti is Durant and Westbrook, nothing more, nothing less.

Actually, I think Presti showed flaws first when he maxed out Westbrook. That cost him the chance to keep Harden, who is a far better player (neither is perfect, but Harden is superior).

Westbrook's trade value was extremely high at that point, and he would have been able to acquire significant assets for the future and still keep Harden. Once his back was more or less against the wall -- everyone knew he couldn't pay all his guys -- he was unable to get full value back for Harden in a trade.

Brenice makes a good point about Presti's '08 draft (tho Westbrook was reasonable, and the pick of Ibaka was great!). Presti had #32 and #46. Instead of grabbing Jordan at #32, he traded those two picks for the #29 and got D. J. White. Mistake, obviously. And even if he hadn't nabbed Jordan, he could have had Asik or Chalmers.

Morey too blew that draft -- he traded the rights to #25 (Nicholas Batum) to Portland for the rights to Darrell Arthur and Joey Dorsey! That's even worse than Presti's draft, because there were doubts about Jordan (not talent but coachability, commitment, etc.) and none about Batum. Portland acquired the rights to Arthur, btw, by giving NO some cash for the #27 pick.

In essence, the 25th pick and the 29th pick bought the 27th, 32d, 33d and 46th pick. Now perhaps you see why I've said over and over that we could have cleaned up in that draft by trading down. We had #18 and #47. We could certainly have acquired #25, #32 & #33 for those 2 with some maneuvering -- in which case, Batum, Jordan and Chalmers become Wizards.

Instead, Ernie flushed that draft: McGee and $500K for our #47.

I thought Jordan was at least as good a prospect as McGee -- at the time! No hindsight going on here. Batum was obvious. And Chalmers was and is a winner, a great guy to have on your team!

But, my main point is that, no, Presti is not perfect; he makes mistakes. So does Morey. Just not at the rate that Ernie Grunfeld makes mistakes.

Edit: In fairness, I should say that I was hoping Hibbert would drop to us in '08, or at least Speights -- it was only if they didn't that I wanted to trade down. Neither of those guys (especially not Speights) turned out to have the value the trade down would have delivered. I'm not always right, and I try not to present selective memory here, and I also make a point of noting when I'm wrong.

[TGW]

Grizz going after Jeff Van Gundy, who is IMO one of the best coaches on this planet.

Lots of excellent coaches available right now. What a year to exceed expectations.

[dckingsfan]

But, my main point is that, no, Presti is not perfect; he makes mistakes. So does Morey. Just not at the rate that Ernie Grunfeld makes mistakes.

And that is the point that seems to be lost... don't know why - it keeps rearing it's ugly head and biting people.

[dckingsfan]

No. My point is not moot.

Ah, so you don't like straw man arguments either

I'm done with you, your strawman crapola, and all that comes with it. You don't even understand what it means.

And you never did explain what your SN means. What is DC Kings Fan ?

Sigh... you took an argument and replaced it with another and then defeated that argument. I did the same to give you an example of what you repeatedly use to argue your point.

Came from the Sac area... I was there the first year they brought the franchise in. I still like the Kings.

[Brenice]

But, my main point is that, no, Presti is not perfect; he makes mistakes. So does Morey. Just not at the rate that Ernie Grunfeld makes mistakes.

And that is the point that seems to be lost... don't know why - it keeps rearing it's ugly head and biting people.

What is being lost is the no-brainer pick of Durant is why OKC is a contender. Presti didn't hurt, but without Durant, OKCis is first round fodder.

[leswizards]

What is being lost is the no-brainer pick of Durant is why OKC is a contender. Presti didn't hurt, but without Durant, OKCis is first round fodder.

And where would the Wizards be without Wall and/or Beal? In case the meaning of my rhetorical question is lost on you, it is to compare where OKC would be without their no brainer pick versus where the Wizards would be without 1 and/or 2 of EG's no brainer picks.

[dckingsfan]

What is being lost is the no-brainer pick of Durant is why OKC is a contender. Presti didn't hurt, but without Durant, OKCis is first round fodder.

And where would the Wizards be without Wall and/or Beal? In case the meaning of my rhetorical question is lost on you, it is to compare where OKC would be without their no brainer pick versus where the Wizards would be without 1 and/or 2 of EG's no brainer picks.

I don't think you can convince him - he won't even acknowledge that the picks by Presti - Serge Ibaka, Thabo Sefolosha, Jeremy Lamb, Perry Jones, Steven Adams, James Harden were far superior to the picks by EG.

[payitforward]

What is being lost is the no-brainer pick of Durant is why OKC is a contender. Presti didn't hurt, but without Durant, OKCis is first round fodder.

And where would the Wizards be without Wall and/or Beal? In case the meaning of my rhetorical question is lost on you, it is to compare where OKC would be without their no brainer pick versus where the Wizards would be without 1 and/or 2 of EG's no brainer picks.

I don't think you can convince him - he won't even acknowledge that the picks by Presti - Serge Ibaka, Thabo Sefolosha, Jeremy Lamb, Perry Jones, Steven Adams, James Harden were far superior to the picks by EG.

Presti didn't pick Sefolosha. Or Lamb for that matter.

Sefolosha was picked #13 in '06 by the Sixers for the Bulls (draft day trade). He played 2 1/2 years with the Bulls and then was traded to OKC in 2/09 (don't remember what the Bulls got in the trade).

Lamb was picked by Houston #12 in 2012. He went to OKC in the Harden trade, which was certainly not a great trade for the Thunder!

Harden was a default pick -- every GM would have taken him at #3 (after Griffin and Thabeet). Obviously, Thabeet was waaaay over-valued. But Presti gets no credit for making a great pick.

Perry Jones has done nothing whatever in the league. What makes him a particularly good pick?

Steven Adams might turn out to be a terrific pick, though so far he hasn't done anything special. But he is talented and younger than Beal. I give him credit on that pick. Note as well that he picked and stashed Abrines high in R2 -- might turn out ok as well. Kind of like the Satoransky pick maybe?

Not a fabulous record in draft picks from '09 forward. But mediocre though it is -- it's a lot better than Ernie Grunfeld's record!!

In '08 we picked JaVale #18; he picked a much better player, Ibaka, at #24. (He also had a high pick and got Westbrook). Big advantage Presti

In '09 he picked Harden #3. Instead of picking Curry 2 picks later we flushed our asset for 2 rent-a-players. Then we flushed our high R2 pick for a little cash. Big advantage Presti

In '10, the ping pong balls gave us Wall, But Ernie did well to trade up from #30 to #23 and grab Booker. We also picked Seraphin at #17. He hasn't worked out, and Bledsoe was there for the taking, but this was still Ernie's best draft -- powered by luck (which got us Wall) and a good trade up for Booker -- Ernie gets credit for that. Presti picked Aldrich who hasn't worked out. Even leaving out Wall -- as we did Westbrook in assessing '08 -- Ernie still has the advantage.

In '11, Presti got Reggie Jackson at #23; he's been a terrific success. We turned our #6, #18 and #34 into... absolutely nothing. Zero. Enormous, huge advantage Presti.

In '12, we got Beal; a default pick. Presti had nothing to work with in R1. We made a questionable pick in R2 -- still... at least we actually made a pick rather than selling it! We had flushed our other R2 pick that year, which would have brought us O'Quinn had I been drafting. I'm glad to have Beal, but I'm not seeing a way to call an advantage for either GM here.

In '13, the ping pong balls gave us another break, and we were pushed up to #3. We made what most people thought was the default pick. Should we taken Noel? You can argue it either way. We made a stupid trade in R2 and got a guy who has show nothing in return for a guy who had a good rookie year playing heavy minutes. To get this reverse bargain (!) we threw in an extra pick! Yikes!

So... no question: Presti made better picks. He picked the default at high draft positions (though certainly Love would have been a better call in '08). In our case, with many more high draft picks, Grunfeld wasted a chance to get Stephen Curry and then absolutely barfed on his shoes with Vesely. So that's advantage Presti. With mid-round picks, Presti was better than we were -- great grab in Ibaka, not so good w/ Aldrich. In our case, out of 4 mid-round picks (McGee, Seraphin, Booker, and Singleton) we got one NBA player. In R2 Ernie has been awful.

So, no question, Presti has been the better in the draft. By a lot.

[Illuminaire]

That seems to be a fair assessment, PIF... and that's without me arguing that Presti should get a *little* credit for Harden.

(Most mocks had him going around 5, and there were lots of draftniks knocking him for perceived lack of athleticism. There wasn't a consensus #3 guy, and Presti did grab a fantastic player while avoiding similarly ranked duds like Evans.)

[hands11]

Ah, so you don't like straw man arguments either

I'm done with you, your strawman crapola, and all that comes with it. You don't even understand what it means.

And you never did explain what your SN means. What is DC Kings Fan ?

Sigh... you took an argument and replaced it with another and then defeated that argument. I did the same to give you an example of what you repeatedly use to argue your point.

Came from the Sac area... I was there the first year they brought the franchise in. I still like the Kings.

I will look over the conversation and see where you think that took place.

A strawman implies intent to misdirect a conversation for the purpose of simply winning the debate when you know you have a losing argument. I did not do that.

What I may have happened was we disagreed with what was the focal point that was important and the facts around that. I think we both feel the other change the focal point. But if the debate was genuine, there is no strawman, its only a genuine disagreement of what the other believe is important. If flaws in fact or logic are pointed out in the process, a genuine debate can handle that. Some times it just boils down to differences of opinion of unknown future projections. We get that here all the time.

But you can trust this much. I don't build strawman as a debating trick.

So you are a from CA. Cool. So you think SAC will get their acts together this year ?

[hands11]

And where would the Wizards be without Wall and/or Beal? In case the meaning of my rhetorical question is lost on you, it is to compare where OKC would be without their no brainer pick versus where the Wizards would be without 1 and/or 2 of EG's no brainer picks.

I don't think you can convince him - he won't even acknowledge that the picks by Presti - Serge Ibaka, Thabo Sefolosha, Jeremy Lamb, Perry Jones, Steven Adams, James Harden were far superior to the picks by EG.

Presti didn't pick Sefolosha. Or Lamb for that matter.

Sefolosha was picked #13 in '06 by the Sixers for the Bulls (draft day trade). He played 2 1/2 years with the Bulls and then was traded to OKC in 2/09 (don't remember what the Bulls got in the trade).

Lamb was picked by Houston #12 in 2012. He went to OKC in the Harden trade, which was certainly not a great trade for the Thunder!

Harden was a default pick -- every GM would have taken him at #3 (after Griffin and Thabeet). Obviously, Thabeet was waaaay over-valued. But Presti gets no credit for making a great pick.

Perry Jones has done nothing whatever in the league. What makes him a particularly good pick?

Steven Adams might turn out to be a terrific pick, though so far he hasn't done anything special. But he is talented and younger than Beal. I give him credit on that pick. Note as well that he picked and stashed Abrines high in R2 -- might turn out ok as well. Kind of like the Satoransky pick maybe?

Not a fabulous record in draft picks from '09 forward. But mediocre though it is -- it's a lot better than Ernie Grunfeld's record!!

In '08 we picked JaVale #18; he picked a much better player, Ibaka, at #24. (He also had a high pick and got Westbrook). Big advantage Presti

In '09 he picked Harden #3. Instead of picking Curry 2 picks later we flushed our asset for 2 rent-a-players. Then we flushed our high R2 pick for a little cash. Big advantage Presti

In '10, the ping pong balls gave us Wall, But Ernie did well to trade up from #30 to #23 and grab Booker. We also picked Seraphin at #17. He hasn't worked out, and Bledsoe was there for the taking, but this was still Ernie's best draft -- powered by luck (which got us Wall) and a good trade up for Booker -- Ernie gets credit for that. Presti picked Aldrich who hasn't worked out. Even leaving out Wall -- as we did Westbrook in assessing '08 -- Ernie still has the advantage.

In '11, Presti got Reggie Jackson at #23; he's been a terrific success. We turned our #6, #18 and #34 into... absolutely nothing. Zero. Enormous, huge advantage Presti.

In '12, we got Beal; a default pick. Presti had nothing to work with in R1. We made a questionable pick in R2 -- still... at least we actually made a pick rather than selling it! We had flushed our other R2 pick that year, which would have brought us O'Quinn had I been drafting. I'm glad to have Beal, but I'm not seeing a way to call an advantage for either GM here.

In '13, the ping pong balls gave us another break, and we were pushed up to #3. We made what most people thought was the default pick. Should we taken Noel? You can argue it either way. We made a stupid trade in R2 and got a guy who has show nothing in return for a guy who had a good rookie year playing heavy minutes. To get this reverse bargain (!) we threw in an extra pick! Yikes!

So... no question: Presti made better picks. He picked the default at high draft positions (though certainly Love would have been a better call in '08). In our case, with many more high draft picks, Grunfeld wasted a chance to get Stephen Curry and then absolutely barfed on his shoes with Vesely. So that's advantage Presti. With mid-round picks, Presti was better than we were -- great grab in Ibaka, not so good w/ Aldrich. In our case, out of 4 mid-round picks (McGee, Seraphin, Booker, and Singleton) we got one NBA player. In R2 Ernie has been awful.

So, no question, Presti has been the better in the draft. By a lot.

Interesting write up PIFF

I wouldn't agree with all of it but its fun to read play by play comparisons of GMs picks.

One thing I'm not sure of yet is if it was luck that we got the #3 last year. I know at the time I didn't want to get that "lucky" I saw a lot of value back where we could have picked in players like Burke, CJM, Adams, and McLemore and there was lots of concerns at #3 regarding getting value.

There were players I thought could help build the bench and that would cost a less at that the Wizards original slot. The 9th pick only cost 2,438,760. Our #3 cost $4,278,000. And we will see if given we had the #3, if going after a big like Len wasn't the better long term move.

Maybe Otto ends up being worth the #3, but any of those player I listed above at 2M would have been nice as well. Burke as a back up PG could have been nice. Adams as a young rebounding strong big. CJM as the PG/SG we need. McLemore as a 2nd athletic SG. Friends with Beal.

But we have Otto and I hope he shows us some stuff next year. Talented tall SF are hard to find. He is theirs now, so I will get behind him and hope for the best. I liked Otto back when I thought we had the 7/8th pick.. Whatever it was and Otto was listed even below that so I liked the value there.

2M difference might not seem like a lot but when you are close to the cap, 2M is a lot. And thats the difference between the 3rd pick and that later pick.

Lucky or not lucky. We will see.

[montestewart]

That seems to be a fair assessment, PIF... and that's without me arguing that Presti should get a *little* credit for Harden.

(Most mocks had him going around 5, and there were lots of draftniks knocking him for perceived lack of athleticism. There wasn't a consensus #3 guy, and Presti did grab a fantastic player while avoiding similarly ranked duds like Evans.)

Same with Westbrook. By draft day, a number of writers had moved him to number 4 in their mocks, but he was far from a consensus pick, and the aggregate average looks like around 6, after hovering at 7 or lower (I've seen mocks that had him out of the lottery picks). Both of these picks contrasted against Beal, who virtually every major mock had at #3 (a handful at #2 or #4).

Mock drafts for 2008:
http://www.nba.com/draft2008/board/mock.html
Mock drafts for 2009:
http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/06/25/ ... draft-625/
Mock drafts for 2012:
http://www.nba.com/hornets/12draft_mock_drafts.html

[Illuminaire]

Yeah. If someone is going to attack Presti, the better tact is to critique how he's filled in around his studs. (And which trigger he decided to pull when he had to move Harden. Can't blame him for his owners being super cheap skates though, just in how he managed that cheapness.)

Still, it must be nice to have a GM who has real expertise in at least *one* essential GM skill.