Draft Exum at #2?

Ayt · Post #161 » by **Ayt** » Mon May 26, 2014 6:35 pm

Wonka wrote:I have a hard time believing Parker is our 4th choice. Our new owners love the guy.

I really don't think we know that.

mrlancers · Post #162 » by **mrlancers** » Mon May 26, 2014 7:09 pm

If the Bucks loved Exum that much, maybe see if the Magic are willing to give up 4 and 12 for 2 or possibly swap 2 and Mayo for 4 and Afflalo. I don't think the Sixers will take Exum at 3. I really believe Wiggins/Embiid/Parker is the top three in whatever order.

worthlessBucks · Post #163 » by **worthlessBucks** » Mon May 26, 2014 7:09 pm

jimmybones wrote:The entire hope around new ownership is that they don't do **** like that. The pick should be made by the guys that get paid to make those picks.

That's true, but the exception comes if our new owners are just going to sh*tcan them anyways in a year. Have them select the guy from the top 4 you want, fire in a year. If I just dropped half a billion on a new franchise, I wouldn't trust the architects of the worst team in the league to make any personnel decisions for me. Hell of a contract extension to Bone last January. Herb Kohl keeps on giving.

theFireBlanket · Post #164 » by **theFireBlanket** » Mon May 26, 2014 7:37 pm

worthlessBucks wrote:
jimmybones wrote:The entire hope around new ownership is that they don't do **** like that. The pick should be made by the guys that get paid to make those picks.

That's true, but the exception comes if our new owners are just going to sh*tcan them anyways in a year. Have them select the guy from the top 4 you want, fire in a year. If I just dropped half a billion on a new franchise, I wouldn't trust the architects of the worst team in the league to make any personnel decisions for me. Hell of a contract extension to Bone last January. Herb Kohl keeps on giving.

They aren't evaluators and picking the guy that Lasry wants (since it was his opinion of Parker that was eluded to by a guy on twitter) isn't going to cut it. Not versus a team of scouts that's had more success than failure as far as draft picks go.

Hammond hasn't made the best personnel moves or draft trades (acquiring Captain Jack & Dalembert, while moving down) but the talent of the picks he selects has been fantastic. The upside of picks being captured, could arguably have more to do with how they've been handled and the overall dysfunctional health of the rest of those Bucks' rosters.

If that was their logic, they'd be better off just cutting them loose now and getting their new GM. To get the information about the organization pertinent to moving forward, they could pay them a sum to give them their due diligence about the roster, coaching staff, etc.

Alas, they've elected to keep Hammond around. So they really should to let his team make the pick.

JEIS · Post #165 » by **JEIS** » Mon May 26, 2014 7:57 pm

Ayt wrote:
Wonka wrote:I have a hard time believing Parker is our 4th choice. Our new owners love the guy.

I really don't think we know that.

It would make some sense maybe if they were fans of Mello...being Knicks fans.. but I guess that is like saying a if someone is a Bucks fan they were likely Jennings fans.

Nycballa2k · Post #166 » by **Nycballa2k** » Mon May 26, 2014 9:06 pm

Ayt wrote:
Wonka wrote:I have a hard time believing Parker is our 4th choice. Our new owners love the guy.

I really don't think we know that.

stuff like this bothers me on this board...how the hell would we know who the one week old owners "love"

KidA24 · Post #167 » by **KidA24** » Mon May 26, 2014 9:12 pm

theFireBlanket wrote:
worthlessBucks wrote:
jimmybones wrote:The entire hope around new ownership is that they don't do **** like that. The pick should be made by the guys that get paid to make those picks.

That's true, but the exception comes if our new owners are just going to sh*tcan them anyways in a year. Have them select the guy from the top 4 you want, fire in a year. If I just dropped half a billion on a new franchise, I wouldn't trust the architects of the worst team in the league to make any personnel decisions for me. Hell of a contract extension to Bone last January. Herb Kohl keeps on giving.

They aren't evaluators and picking the guy that Lasry wants (since it was his opinion of Parker that was eluded to by a guy on twitter) isn't going to cut it. Not versus a team of scouts that's had more success than failure as far as draft picks go.

Hammond hasn't made the best personnel moves or draft trades (acquiring Captain Jack & Dalembert, while moving down) but the talent of the picks he selects has been fantastic. The upside of picks being captured, could arguably have more to do with how they've been handled and the overall dysfunctional health of the rest of those Bucks' rosters.

If that was their logic, they'd be better off just cutting them loose now and getting their new GM. To get the information about the organization pertinent to moving forward, they could pay them a sum to give them their due diligence about the roster, coaching staff, etc.

Alas, they've elected to keep Hammond around. So they really should to let his team make the pick.

If Philly calls and offers #3 and #10 for #2, is Hammond really the guy you want on the phone? Somehow he'd screw that up and we'd end up trading #2, Ersan, Zaza and Mayo for #10.

jimmybones · Post #168 » by **jimmybones** » Mon May 26, 2014 9:21 pm

worthlessBucks wrote:
jimmybones wrote:The entire hope around new ownership is that they don't do **** like that. The pick should be made by the guys that get paid to make those picks.

That's true, but the exception comes if our new owners are just going to sh*tcan them anyways in a year. Have them select the guy from the top 4 you want, fire in a year. If I just dropped half a billion on a new franchise, I wouldn't trust the architects of the worst team in the league to make any personnel decisions for me. Hell of a contract extension to Bone last January. Herb Kohl keeps on giving.

1. That's not an exception, at all. I don't care how much they spent. I don't care if Hammond will be gone in a year. None of that makes these guys scouts or guys qualified to make such a decision.

2. Hammond has drafted just fine, if not pretty good.

JEIS · Post #169 » by **JEIS** » Mon May 26, 2014 9:46 pm

Nycballa2k wrote:
Ayt wrote:
Wonka wrote:I have a hard time believing Parker is our 4th choice. Our new owners love the guy.

I really don't think we know that.

stuff like this bothers me on this board...how the hell would we know who the one week old owners "love"

Pretty sure there was an article that said that one of the owners mentioned it to someone in passing that he liked Parker and it got leaked out.(it wasn't in an actual interview with a reporter) It's not like guy who posted they like Parker is pulling the idea out of his ass.

The thing though is there are 2 owners.... one might like Parker, one might like Embiid... and there is still Hambone who might like someone else... The owner could have been misleading in his answer... I wouldn't tell anyone outside of my draft team who I was liking if I were in their position. Plus the owners did say they were going to let the People they put charge to make the decision without butting in.

JEIS · Post #170 » by **JEIS** » Mon May 26, 2014 11:01 pm

I just can't get behind Exum at the second pick.

I think there is superior talent ahead of him.
I don't know too if I am partly undervaluing the pg position.

I think He will only be as good as the talent surrounding him on the Bucks. I feel like he has the potential to be a chucker combo guard we all have watched and don't want.

I'd rather have Wolters and an Embiid or Wiggins than Exum and our current roster. If we were stuck at 4 so be it. roll the dice and hope for the best.... but we are not at pick 4.

randy84 · Post #171 » by **randy84** » Mon May 26, 2014 11:21 pm

Nycballa2k wrote:
Ayt wrote:
Wonka wrote:I have a hard time believing Parker is our 4th choice. Our new owners love the guy.

I really don't think we know that.

stuff like this bothers me on this board...how the hell would we know who the one week old owners "love"

http://www.brewhoop.com/2014/5/6/568567 ... oel-embiid

White+Purple · Post #172 » by **White+Purple** » Mon May 26, 2014 11:42 pm

randy84 wrote:http://www.brewhoop.com/2014/5/6/568567 ... oel-embiid

Has anyone looked at the math used by the guy linked to in the article, Vashro? The statistical correlations are far more concrete but his predictions are almost as interesting:

Fap fap fap.

And the predictions:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv? ... alse&gid=8

MadBlueEdwards · Post #173 » by **MadBlueEdwards** » Tue May 27, 2014 1:03 am

Am I the only one who doesn't understand ANY of that?

AntetokounmBros · Post #174 » by **AntetokounmBros** » Tue May 27, 2014 1:07 am

I'm a fan of Exum but I would be disappointed if he was our pick. Not angry, just disappointed. I hope Hammond doesn't try to get too tricky and outsmart everyone with the surprise pick. Giannis worked out last year, but I hope it didn't give him too much confidence that he can do it each time.

xTitan · Post #175 » by **xTitan** » Tue May 27, 2014 1:16 am

MadBlueEdwards wrote:Am I the only one who doesn't understand ANY of that?

No

xTitan · Post #176 » by **xTitan** » Tue May 27, 2014 1:17 am

Exum won't be chosen #2

machu46 · Post #177 » by **machu46** » Tue May 27, 2014 1:26 am

I would love Embiid, Exum, or Wiggins at 2. And I'd still be happy with Jabari. Just not as happy as I would with the other 3.

Really glad that my worst case scenario this year is being happy though. Barring some dramatic rise from Randle or something.

cinematographer · Post #178 » by **cinematographer** » Tue May 27, 2014 1:27 am

MadBlueEdwards wrote:Am I the only one who doesn't understand ANY of that?

A higher R² is a higher correlation. For the purposes of this, the higher the R², the more likely it is a player's collegiate production/score/what have you in a various metric will translate -- "explain" -- his pro production/score/whathaveyou in a various metric.

A 0 indicates zero explanation. A 1 indicates absolute explanation. We could delve into "bias", too, but remember correlation does NOT equal causation. Think of this as a good starting point. If a player is an above-average rebounder in college, more times than not he'll be a productive rebounder in the NBA.

machu46 · Post #179 » by **machu46** » Tue May 27, 2014 1:45 am

cinematographer wrote:
MadBlueEdwards wrote:Am I the only one who doesn't understand ANY of that?

A higher R² is a higher correlation. For the purposes of this, the higher the R², the more likely it is a player's collegiate production/score/what have you in a various metric will translate -- "explain" -- his pro production/score/whathaveyou in a various metric.

A 0 indicates zero explanation. A 1 indicates absolute explanation. We could delve into "bias", too, but remember correlation does NOT equal causation. Think of this as a good starting point. If a player is an above-average rebounder in college, more times than not he'll be a productive rebounder in the NBA.

This.

And if I remember my stats classes correctly (I probably don't), the Pr one is probably the p-value? Where if it's less than .04, it's basically considered to be a significant variable.

JustinCredible · Post #180 » by **JustinCredible** » Tue May 27, 2014 3:58 am

I know he hasn't played real games in a year but does anyone have a link to any of Exum's full games? Preferably not all-star games but games with his actual team. I loved watching those of Giannis last year and I am eager to get my eyes on some more Exum footage. The few minutes of YouTube action he has just isn't enough. I'm not sure how anyone on here can have an opinion on him if you haven't seen more then just highlight clips.