Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing (Part 2)

[payitforward]

Interesting write up PIFF

I wouldn't agree with all of it but its fun to read play by play comparisons of GMs picks.

Thanks, Hands.

And "agreement" is boring after all! We are here to have fun debating issues about which we are passionate.

One thing I'm not sure of yet is if it was luck that we got the #3 last year. I know at the time I didn't want to get that "lucky" I saw a lot of value back where we could have picked in players like Burke, CJM, Adams, and McLemore and there was lots of concerns at #3 regarding getting value.

There were players I thought could help build the bench and that would cost a less at that the Wizards original slot. The 9th pick only cost 2,438,760. Our #3 cost $4,278,000. And we will see if given we had the #3, if going after a big like Len wasn't the better long term move....

2M difference might not seem like a lot but when you are close to the cap, 2M is a lot. And thats the difference between the 3rd pick and that later pick.

Lucky or not lucky. We will see.

Well... I understand what you mean. But, still, moving up via the ping pong balls is always a piece of good luck -- if you'd rather be picking a bit further down, you can trade there and get some other assets out of the deal for your #3.

Looking at who would have been available at #8 in the 2013 draft, it's now kind of obvious (at least off rookie results) that Adetokunbo and M.C-W. were very high value picks. Maybe Adams will look that way too by the end of the coming season. I liked Schroeder a lot as well, still do, but so far he has done absolutely nothing, so I may have been all wrong about him. In any case, I didn't have him ranked high enough to pick at #8.

Had I been picking #8, it would have been between Caldwell-Pope and C.J. McCollum -- in both cases because they were such effective players in college. I am pretty sure I would have picked Caldwell-Pope... but it's irrelevant of course.

After Adetokunbo, however, the highest value pick in the whole draft looks to have been Mason Plumlee, whom the Nets nabbed at #22. You could argue he should have been RoY !! On the other hand, it's no surprise to get a better rookie year out of a guy who enters the league at 23 than one who enters at 18 (like Adetokunbo).

I know you like Len, but I wasn't interested in him at #3 -- before the draft, I thought Porter was the right pick. With Noel available unexpectedly, I might have changed my call. But, I didn't think it was possible to understand his injury situation well enough from the position of a fan to take a position on the issue.

[payitforward]

That seems to be a fair assessment, PIF... and that's without me arguing that Presti should get a *little* credit for Harden.

(Most mocks had him going around 5, and there were lots of draftniks knocking him for perceived lack of athleticism. There wasn't a consensus #3 guy, and Presti did grab a fantastic player while avoiding similarly ranked duds like Evans.)

Same with Westbrook. By draft day, a number of writers had moved him to number 4 in their mocks, but he was far from a consensus pick, and the aggregate average looks like around 6, after hovering at 7 or lower (I've seen mocks that had him out of the lottery picks). Both of these picks contrasted against Beal, who virtually every major mock had at #3 (a handful at #2 or #4).

Mock drafts for 2008:
http://www.nba.com/draft2008/board/mock.html
Mock drafts for 2009:
http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/06/25/ ... draft-625/
Mock drafts for 2012:
http://www.nba.com/hornets/12draft_mock_drafts.html

To be sure, but given who was actually available at #4, the only choice would have been between Love and Westbrook! Presti picked the lesser of those guys, to be sure, but look at the next 7 guys taken after Love. Ugh....

In fact, of the top dozen picks in that draft, only Rose, Westbrook and Love have turned out to be really good players. Overall, the 2d half of the 2008 R1 has produced more good players than the first half.

[montestewart]

That seems to be a fair assessment, PIF... and that's without me arguing that Presti should get a *little* credit for Harden.

(Most mocks had him going around 5, and there were lots of draftniks knocking him for perceived lack of athleticism. There wasn't a consensus #3 guy, and Presti did grab a fantastic player while avoiding similarly ranked duds like Evans.)

Same with Westbrook. By draft day, a number of writers had moved him to number 4 in their mocks, but he was far from a consensus pick, and the aggregate average looks like around 6, after hovering at 7 or lower (I've seen mocks that had him out of the lottery picks). Both of these picks contrasted against Beal, who virtually every major mock had at #3 (a handful at #2 or #4).

Mock drafts for 2008:
http://www.nba.com/draft2008/board/mock.html
Mock drafts for 2009:
http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/06/25/ ... draft-625/
Mock drafts for 2012:
http://www.nba.com/hornets/12draft_mock_drafts.html

To be sure, but given who was actually available at #4, the only choice would have been between Love and Westbrook! Presti picked the lesser of those guys, to be sure, but look at the next 7 guys taken after Love. Ugh....

In fact, of the top dozen picks in that draft, only Rose, Westbrook and Love have turned out to be really good players. Overall, the 2d half of the 2008 R1 has produced more good players than the first half.

This and related exchanges descend from a whimper which I don't want to stray too far from, since you and I debating an unrelated point is precisely the reward of being a troll. The contention was we (a vague and way too large group) consider Presti a genius, when the entirety of the Thunder's success rests on Durant and ( to some extent) Westbrook, both of whom were implied to be the obvious choices at their respective draft positions.

This argument appears to be saying that the Durant and Westbrook picks were nothing but luck, that they do not differ from the Wizards choosing John Wall and Bradley Beal at their respective draft positions. My answer to that is that Westbrook was not so "obvious" a choice as were Durant, Wall, and Beal. The latter three were overwhelmingly picked at their respective positions in mock drafts. A few prescient prognosticators picked Westbrook at #4 in their mock drafts, but the overwhelming majority did not, his average draft position in mock drafts was somewhere around 6 or 7, with a number of major outlets predicting Westbook to be drafted at #10 or later.

Someone further made a silly assertion that OKC's "obvious" need was a PG to run with Durant. They actually needed everything but Durant, so they were really in a good position to just take the best player available, unless that player was exactly like Durant. Further, Westbrook in college played as a combo guard sharing duties with a highly regarded and more pure PG in Collison. Many among draft writers and mock draft creators questioned Westbrook's ability to successfully play NBA PG.

Love would have been a better pick at that position, but Westbrook has been far from a failure. In hindsight, both were widely ranked too low in pre-draft mocks (there's a good discussion in one of these threads about why Love was ranked lower than Beasley). Take away all these silly hindsight arguments, and it is hard to support a claim that Westbrook was comparable to Durant, Wall, or Beal as the "obvious" choice in the minds of most observers. Similarly, Harden was not as widely predicted to be the choice where he was picked. And certainly Ibaka was not the obvious choice.

That's three successful picks critical to the Thunder's fortunes that could not be characterized as "obvious" in the sense that Durant, Wall, and Beal were obvious. I don't know if that makes Presti a genius or not, but the arguments here against his genius largely combine hindsight and emotion to achieve a desired goal.

[Jay81]

apparently, Ted cant clean house. Promoted a GM from within the organization today for caps

[Illuminaire]

Well, free agent GMs are very risky. You can offer them a lot of money and still have them turn you down. It's much better to go for GMs who are already contractually obligated to work for your organization.

[dckingsfan]

I think it depends on

1) Do you like the way the franchise is going and just want a couple of tweeks

2) Need to tear up what you are doing and start from scratch - rip out all the old and replace with new blood

[DCZards]

I think it depends on

1) Do you like the way the franchise is going and just want a couple of tweeks

2) Need to tear up what you are doing and start from scratch - rip out all the old and replace with new blood

So do you see the Zards as a #1 or #2? Or none of the above?

[dckingsfan]

I think it depends on

1) Do you like the way the franchise is going and just want a couple of tweeks

2) Need to tear up what you are doing and start from scratch - rip out all the old and replace with new blood

So do you see the Zards as a #1 or #2? Or none of the above?

You mean the Capitals?

[closg00]

I think it depends on

1) Do you like the way the franchise is going and just want a couple of tweeks

2) Need to tear up what you are doing and start from scratch - rip out all the old and replace with new blood

So do you see the Zards as a #1 or #2? Or none of the above?

...and, would you entrust Ernie Grunfeld to do any of the "tweaking"?

[noworriesinmd]

Reading columns like this depress me

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2077 ... weepstakes

This is what the world thinks of Ernie and this org.

[dckingsfan]

Reading columns like this depress me

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2077 ... weepstakes

This is what the world thinks of Ernie and this org.

You mean this part:

...Outside of them, Washington has very little to offer.

Nene is a good player, but his combination of age, contract and injury history makes him undesirable. The Wizards don't have a first-round pick this year to deal, and last year's first-round choice Otto Porter Jr. showed virtually nothing in his rookie season.

The rest of the roster is made up of aging veterans or middling free-agent big men, neither of which should interest Minnesota all that much.

[closg00]

Nope, it was this:

Sacrificing Beal isn't worth a one-year rental of Love, no matter how great of a big man he is. There would need to be assurances given, of course, and it's hard to imagine Love doing that just to play with Wall. Perhaps more importantly, Love would be committing to playing under Randy Wittman and for general manager Ernie Grunfeld, who rank pretty low on the league's coach/GM combos.

It may sound harsh, but there are more talented teams with more movable parts, smarter management, bigger markets and better chances at sustainable success. The Wizards are definitely on the right track, but save for offering Beal, they don't have enough juice to enter the trade sweepstakes for a superstar like Love.

This is the not so dirty little secret. There's a reason you don't hear big names including Washington on their wish list of franchises they wish to play for.

Spot-on, no need for big name FA's to "sit back and wait to see what Ted & Ernie do next"

[Zonkerbl]

No question that the default pick in '13 was Noel.

We do not yet know if that was an enormous mistake or not. Porter had about five meaningful, non garbage time minutes, which is five more than Noel had.

Personally I've had enough of injury prone big men. Porter so far is a marginal improvement on Jordan Crawford. If he didn't have two starter-quality guys in front of him, and if he wasn't so completely incapable of playing the 2, he probably would have had some decent minutes this year and had a chance to show some good things.

Logjam at 3 has to break and Porter needs to explode. Otherwise there's no way forward for this franchise.

[dckingsfan]

No question that the default pick in '13 was Noel.

We do not yet know if that was an enormous mistake or not. Porter had about five meaningful, non garbage time minutes, which is five more than Noel had.

Personally I've had enough of injury prone big men. Porter so far is a marginal improvement on Jordan Crawford. If he didn't have two starter-quality guys in front of him, and if he wasn't so completely incapable of playing the 2, he probably would have had some decent minutes this year and had a chance to show some good things.

Logjam at 3 has to break and Porter needs to explode. Otherwise there's no way forward for this franchise.

If you don't take Noel - then trade down and pickup two of the bigs. Either/or would have worked.

[Zonkerbl]

No question that the default pick in '13 was Noel.

We do not yet know if that was an enormous mistake or not. Porter had about five meaningful, non garbage time minutes, which is five more than Noel had.

Personally I've had enough of injury prone big men. Porter so far is a marginal improvement on Jordan Crawford. If he didn't have two starter-quality guys in front of him, and if he wasn't so completely incapable of playing the 2, he probably would have had some decent minutes this year and had a chance to show some good things.

Logjam at 3 has to break and Porter needs to explode. Otherwise there's no way forward for this franchise.

If you don't take Noel - then trade down and pickup two of the bigs. Either/or would have worked.

Hindsight being 20/20, would've been nice to pick up Adams. Let me also say that my man Cody Zeller had a more productive year than Porter did, so there's that.

[dckingsfan]

No question that the default pick in '13 was Noel.

We do not yet know if that was an enormous mistake or not. Porter had about five meaningful, non garbage time minutes, which is five more than Noel had.

Personally I've had enough of injury prone big men. Porter so far is a marginal improvement on Jordan Crawford. If he didn't have two starter-quality guys in front of him, and if he wasn't so completely incapable of playing the 2, he probably would have had some decent minutes this year and had a chance to show some good things.

Logjam at 3 has to break and Porter needs to explode. Otherwise there's no way forward for this franchise.

If you don't take Noel - then trade down and pickup two of the bigs. Either/or would have worked.

Hindsight being 20/20, would've been nice to pick up Adams. Let me also say that my man Cody Zeller had a more productive year than Porter did, so there's that.

I just want to trade down and take two of Plumlee, Dieng, Olynyk and Adams in that order. I also understood that wanted Noel. I didn't understand Porter.

Now I just want him to prove everyone wrong and come out on fire next year.

[cwb3]

I still want to see EG fired. . .I know. . .

[queridiculo]

Logjam at 3 has to break and Porter needs to explode. Otherwise there's no way forward for this franchise.

The only way forward for this franchise is EG being **** canned.

[Youheardme90]

thread`ll neva die.

[closg00]

Admit it, your heart sank a little when you saw this report:

Nerlens Noel said Thursday that he feels 100 percent healthy after sitting out the entire season due to a torn ACL.

Noel added he will play in the Orlando Summer League for the Philadelphia 76ers.

Noel was the sixth overall pick in the 2013 NBA draft