Official Trade Thread - Part XXVII

[penbeast0]

My problem with Ariza is that he had a big year with LA and got a nice long term deal out of it with Houston.

Then, for the next 4 years he was hot garbage . . .under .500 ts%, not as active on the boards, still good defense but not as consistent. Last year for us he improved but Webster actually looked better, then this year . . . another contract year, he was back to the player he last was in 07-09, shooting well, active on the boards, in the game mentally all the time, a very good player.

If I had to guess, however, I would guess he is more likely to return to the poor form he showed in Houston and New Orleans than maintain what he did this year. He's only 28 so there aren't any real age issues but I'd be very hesitant to give him a long-term deal or rely on him to match this year's numbers.

I understand Nate thinks it is John Wall's playmaking but I'm more hesitant and actually trust Webster more moving into next year (and, of course, hope Porter turns them both into 10 mpg players).

Webster has a significant injury history. Why do you trust him to stay healthy enough to perform like he did two years ago? He hasn't been able to during any other year of his entire career.

Ariza did drop in production after his first big contract. He was also put into a different role - an offensive initiator rather than role player - and he responded by trying to do too much. From how he's played the last two years, I feel confident that he has matured as a player (he doesn't take the crappy off the dribble shots any more, and his effort is more consistent on both ends), and he is in the right kind of situation. Ariza should be a good starter for several years to come.

I agree on the hope about Porter

The injury history is pretty significant. I didn't see signs of it the last two years with Webster so I don't worry about it as much.

[Nivek]

Webster dealt with a sore back much of the season, and it did show in his production. He was down significantly from last season -- pretty much across the board.

[Illuminaire]

That's the scary thing about Webster's back problems. They won't keep him from playing (and keeping his option), they'll just keep him from playing *well*.

[deneem4]

We could be a dominant team with hayward but then we most likely won't be able to sign gortat

That's not necessarily true depends who the wiz move Webster and Nene would have to go to free up space since he would want 3-4 year contract most likely imo here.

You guys think Hayward is as productive as Ariza? Wow. I'm glad you aren't picking players. I don't even think Ernie could be quite that off-base.

Hayward has not been in a good situation in Utah last yr point guard wise...foye? Mo??
Ariza was blessed with the wall effect and contract yr...but gordon is a better offensive player and currently is better with ball handling than beal...
Only thing I don't like about hhayward is his contract...but we're probably going to end up having to giv ariza the same amount or close to the same amount of money..
bu gordon can be a star in the right system...A potential 3 headed monster on our team...but then again what about porter? Glen Rice? Two guys who I think have major potential.
Or even yet thad and ersan?? Who both cost a little more than gordon contract might be...lot of things to consider but if we do go after gordon he'll look good next to wall and beal

[nate33]

We could be a dominant team with hayward but then we most likely won't be able to sign gortat

That's not necessarily true depends who the wiz move Webster and Nene would have to go to free up space since he would want 3-4 year contract most likely imo here.

You guys think Hayward is as productive as Ariza? Wow. I'm glad you aren't picking players. I don't even think Ernie could be quite that off-base.

Agreed. Ariza is a much better player right now. Much better defender. A better 3-point shooter. A better rebounder. More efficient on offense. Hayward is a more versatile player, but he does everything at an "okay" level, not at a top tier level. I'd rather have a specialist like Ariza who may not be able to do everything, but the stuff he does he does superbly.

The only argument for Hayward is youth - but when we're dealing with a role player type of guy, I'm less concerned about developing guys and more concerned about finding guys who are ready to win now. When Ariza loses a step, we can replace him.

[floppymoose]

Does that mean you think the Wizards are keeping Ariza? Or just that you would like them to keep Ariza?

[pcbothwel]

That's not necessarily true depends who the wiz move Webster and Nene would have to go to free up space since he would want 3-4 year contract most likely imo here.

You guys think Hayward is as productive as Ariza? Wow. I'm glad you aren't picking players. I don't even think Ernie could be quite that off-base.

Agreed. Ariza is a much better player right now. Much better defender. A better 3-point shooter. A better rebounder. More efficient on offense. Hayward is a more versatile player, but he does everything at an "okay" level, not at a top tier level. I'd rather have a specialist like Ariza who may not be able to do everything, but the stuff he does he does superbly.

The only argument for Hayward is youth - but when we're dealing with a role player type of guy, I'm less concerned about developing guys and more concerned about finding guys who are ready to win now. When Ariza loses a step, we can replace him.

Nate, i will again say that Im not the biggest fan of Hayward, but...what are you'll talking about. Ariza averages 6 rebounds to Haywards 5...not a big deal. Also, in each of Haywards first 3 years he has been a better 3pt shooter despite not having open threes spoon fed to him like Ariza. But he has one year where he shoots 30% and Ariza shoots 40% and all of a sudden Ariza is the better shooter? It should be noted that each of the 3 years before he came to the Wiz, Ariza had a TS% under 50. While Hayward had a TS% of 58,57,56 the 3 years before this one while being a higher usage player. While Ariza is a better defender, Hayward matches him in blocks and steals and I believe he will only improve.

I can understand people having a preference, but to say that Ariza is "a much better player" is simply false. This is not to say that I dont like Ariza as a fit for this team given his skill set and probable contract, but I just thought I should give some perspective

[stevemcqueen1]

Does that mean you think the Wizards are keeping Ariza? Or just that you would like them to keep Ariza?

They'll try and keep him. Probably. Ariza is well liked by the team and has good chemistry with Wall in particular. He was definitely valuable. He doesn't really take much off the table individually.

I think Wizards fans are pretty torn about whether the team should keep him or not. On the one hand, we know he's valuable and don't want him to walk for nothing. We haven't had that many valuable players come through D.C. for a long time. And not that long ago we were playing a depressing mix of Al Thornton, Chris Singleton, Mo Evans, and a super washed up Rashard Lewis and Josh Howard at SF. And trying to talk ourselves into guys like Othyus Jeffers and Cartier Martin. Having a SF that's actually good has been a big relief.

But we also want to get something out of Otto Porter and have a balanced roster. Porter was drafted #3 overall and intended to be the long term starter. Spending a whole bunch of money to keep Ariza keeps Porter blocked from starting and ties up too many team building resources into the SF position, particularly when you factor in Webster and his full MLE deal.

Webster is also well liked by the team too. Very popular in the locker room and something of a leader. It sucks that either he or Ariza almost certainly has to go for Otto Porter to get on track.

I doubt the FO lets Ariza walk without making a sincere attempt to keep him. And I think Ariza will want to stay if the money is right. Most likely outcome is that Ariza gets an extension and continues to start and Porter takes Webster's minutes and becomes the sixth man. I think Webster will end up being the odd man out, especially if his back injury lingers.

[nate33]

Agreed. Ariza is a much better player right now. Much better defender. A better 3-point shooter. A better rebounder. More efficient on offense. Hayward is a more versatile player, but he does everything at an "okay" level, not at a top tier level. I'd rather have a specialist like Ariza who may not be able to do everything, but the stuff he does he does superbly.

The only argument for Hayward is youth - but when we're dealing with a role player type of guy, I'm less concerned about developing guys and more concerned about finding guys who are ready to win now. When Ariza loses a step, we can replace him.

Nate, i will again say that Im not the biggest fan of Hayward, but...what are you'll talking about. Ariza averages 6 rebounds to Haywards 5...not a big deal. Also, in each of Haywards first 3 years he has been a better 3pt shooter despite not having open threes spoon fed to him like Ariza. But he has one year where he shoots 30% and Ariza shoots 40% and all of a sudden Ariza is the better shooter? It should be noted that each of the 3 years before he came to the Wiz, Ariza had a TS% under 50. While Hayward had a TS% of 58,57,56 the 3 years before this one while being a higher usage player. While Ariza is a better defender, Hayward matches him in blocks and steals and I believe he will only improve.

I can understand people having a preference, but to say that Ariza is "a much better player" is simply false. This is not to say that I dont like Ariza as a fit for this team given his skill set and probable contract, but I just thought I should give some perspective

Their counting stats are fairly comparable. On a per 36 basis, Ariza gets a few more rebounds and steals, Hayward gets a few more points. A notable difference is Hayward gets a lot more assists while accumulating a corresponding number of turnovers in the process.

The main difference between the players is efficiency and defense:

ORtg
Ariza: 113
Hayward: 104

DRtg
Ariza: 104
Hayward: 111

TS%
Ariza: .592
Hayward: .520

Those a HUGE disparities. I don't know how you can look at those numbers and think they're equal players. Again, I'll say that Hayward is a jack of all trades but a master of none. Ariza is a specialist. In this league, specialists are more desirable unless your jack of all trades is actually very good at all trades, which makes him a star. Hayward is not.

[nate33]

I doubt the FO lets Ariza walk without making a sincere attempt to keep him. And I think Ariza will want to stay if the money is right. Most likely outcome is that Ariza gets an extension and continues to start and Porter takes Webster's minutes and becomes the sixth man. I think Webster will end up being the odd man out, especially if his back injury lingers.

Pretty much this. Ariza is wanted back and will be resigned unless his price is absurdly high. After Ariza is retained, the Wizards will probably quietly shop Webster. I don't know if he'll be traded this summer, but he'll probably get moved as Porter develops.

I think the majority fans here would be happy with that scenario - Ariza being retained and Webster being moved. A vocal minority still advocate to let Ariza and Gortat walk, blow it up, and rebuild with younger players around Wall and Beal. I think that's completely unrealistic now that the Wizards have had a taste of success.

[payitforward]

You guys think Hayward is as productive as Ariza? Wow. I'm glad you aren't picking players. I don't even think Ernie could be quite that off-base.

Agreed. Ariza is a much better player right now. Much better defender. A better 3-point shooter. A better rebounder. More efficient on offense. Hayward is a more versatile player, but he does everything at an "okay" level, not at a top tier level. I'd rather have a specialist like Ariza who may not be able to do everything, but the stuff he does he does superbly.

The only argument for Hayward is youth - but when we're dealing with a role player type of guy, I'm less concerned about developing guys and more concerned about finding guys who are ready to win now. When Ariza loses a step, we can replace him.

Nate, i will again say that Im not the biggest fan of Hayward, but...what are you'll talking about. Ariza averages 6 rebounds to Haywards 5...not a big deal. Also, in each of Haywards first 3 years he has been a better 3pt shooter despite not having open threes spoon fed to him like Ariza. But he has one year where he shoots 30% and Ariza shoots 40% and all of a sudden Ariza is the better shooter? It should be noted that each of the 3 years before he came to the Wiz, Ariza had a TS% under 50. While Hayward had a TS% of 58,57,56 the 3 years before this one while being a higher usage player. While Ariza is a better defender, Hayward matches him in blocks and steals and I believe he will only improve.

I can understand people having a preference, but to say that Ariza is "a much better player" is simply false. This is not to say that I dont like Ariza as a fit for this team given his skill set and probable contract, but I just thought I should give some perspective

Hmmmm.... Hayward has been just about an average 3, if you compare him to guys who play 25+ minutes. Ariza has been better; there's no doubt about that.

But... we are up against the LuxTax. If Hayward was one year earlier on his rookie contract I might see the logic in acquiring him and letting Ariza go. You'd lose something, but maybe the $$ you saved would be useful enough that you were able to add someone else -- and somehow wind up w/ a net productivity gain. Then you'd decide the following year, his option year, what to do with him.

But, in fact, this is his option year. Hence, it's most likely he'd come in a S&T, i.e. having gotten his 2d deal. How much is that deal going to cost? That's the key question, it seems to me. If Hayward costs almost as much as Ariza... why?

[payitforward]

Does that mean you think the Wizards are keeping Ariza? Or just that you would like them to keep Ariza?

They'll try and keep him. Probably. Ariza is well liked by the team and has good chemistry with Wall in particular. He was definitely valuable. He doesn't really take much off the table individually.

I think Wizards fans are pretty torn about whether the team should keep him or not. On the one hand, we know he's valuable and don't want him to walk for nothing. We haven't had that many valuable players come through D.C. for a long time. And not that long ago we were playing a depressing mix of Al Thornton, Chris Singleton, Mo Evans, and a super washed up Rashard Lewis and Josh Howard at SF. And trying to talk ourselves into guys like Othyus Jeffers and Cartier Martin. Having a SF that's actually good has been a big relief.

But we also want to get something out of Otto Porter and have a balanced roster. Porter was drafted #3 overall and intended to be the long term starter. Spending a whole bunch of money to keep Ariza keeps Porter blocked from starting and ties up too many team building resources into the SF position, particularly when you factor in Webster and his full MLE deal.

Webster is also well liked by the team too. Very popular in the locker room and something of a leader. It sucks that either he or Ariza almost certainly has to go for Otto Porter to get on track.

I doubt the FO lets Ariza walk without making a sincere attempt to keep him. And I think Ariza will want to stay if the money is right. Most likely outcome is that Ariza gets an extension and continues to start and Porter takes Webster's minutes and becomes the sixth man. I think Webster will end up being the odd man out, especially if his back injury lingers.

+1 -- I follow your thinking the whole way through and it makes great sense. Only problem is, if Webster back injury lingers he'll be hard to trade.

Plus side is that he can back up Beal at the 2 (which Ariza can't do), so maybe there are still minutes for him. Even with his bad back, he's not a terrible price/performance guy if the minutes are there.

[stevemcqueen1]

I doubt the FO lets Ariza walk without making a sincere attempt to keep him. And I think Ariza will want to stay if the money is right. Most likely outcome is that Ariza gets an extension and continues to start and Porter takes Webster's minutes and becomes the sixth man. I think Webster will end up being the odd man out, especially if his back injury lingers.

Pretty much this. Ariza is wanted back and will be resigned unless his price is absurdly high. After Ariza is retained, the Wizards will probably quietly shop Webster. I don't know if he'll be traded this summer, but he'll probably get moved as Porter develops.

I think the majority fans here would be happy with that scenario - Ariza being retained and Webster being moved. A vocal minority still advocate to let Ariza and Gortat walk, blow it up, and rebuild with younger players around Wall and Beal. I think that's completely unrealistic now that the Wizards have had a taste of success.

Yeah I think you're right on all counts.

I think it's the best short term scenario for the team if it plays out like that. Except I do wish we'd find a way to get a stretchy 4 like Patrick Patterson here. Someone to fill the role better than Harrington. I would be a little apprehensive about letting Ariza walk, but I'd be OK if it was because he got an offer that was too big to match and we use the savings to get that Patterson-like role player.

I completely agree that it's unrealistic to let Ariza and Gortat walk and head back to the lottery. I think that'd be a pretty sure way to alienate the players on the team, especially Wall and Beal. They need the opportunity to progress a lot more than anything else right now. We don't need to be taking any backwards steps now that we finally took a pretty big, legit step forward.

[Dat2U]

That's not necessarily true depends who the wiz move Webster and Nene would have to go to free up space since he would want 3-4 year contract most likely imo here.

You guys think Hayward is as productive as Ariza? Wow. I'm glad you aren't picking players. I don't even think Ernie could be quite that off-base.

Agreed. Ariza is a much better player right now. Much better defender. A better 3-point shooter. A better rebounder. More efficient on offense. Hayward is a more versatile player, but he does everything at an "okay" level, not at a top tier level. I'd rather have a specialist like Ariza who may not be able to do everything, but the stuff he does he does superbly.

The only argument for Hayward is youth - but when we're dealing with a role player type of guy, I'm less concerned about developing guys and more concerned about finding guys who are ready to win now. When Ariza loses a step, we can replace him.

Offensively I don't see a comparison. Ariza played very well in a 3&D role but Hayward's skill set & versatility trumps anything Ariza does offensively. I don't think it's even close, put Hayward next to Wall & Beal and you have the makings of something very special at least on the offensive end. Hayward was tasked as the lead guy in Utah... surrounded by a significant lack of offensive talent. That's not his ideal role. As a 2nd/3rd option he'd likely see his efficiency skyrocket.

Defensively of course Ariza has a significant advantage, but perimeter defenders impact is quite muted compared to a PF or a C's impact. I'd prefer to have defensive minded bigs and skilled perimeter guys rather than vice versa. If were talking about paying a SF $10 mil per or so, I'd chose Hayward every single time.

[nate33]

You guys think Hayward is as productive as Ariza? Wow. I'm glad you aren't picking players. I don't even think Ernie could be quite that off-base.

Agreed. Ariza is a much better player right now. Much better defender. A better 3-point shooter. A better rebounder. More efficient on offense. Hayward is a more versatile player, but he does everything at an "okay" level, not at a top tier level. I'd rather have a specialist like Ariza who may not be able to do everything, but the stuff he does he does superbly.

The only argument for Hayward is youth - but when we're dealing with a role player type of guy, I'm less concerned about developing guys and more concerned about finding guys who are ready to win now. When Ariza loses a step, we can replace him.

Offensively I don't see a comparison. Ariza played very well in a 3&D role but Hayward's skill set & versatility trumps anything Ariza does offensively. I don't think it's even close, put Hayward next to Wall & Beal and you have the makings of something very special at least on the offensive end. Hayward was tasked as the lead guy in Utah... surrounded by a significant lack of offensive talent. That's not his ideal role. As a 2nd/3rd option he'd likely see his efficiency skyrocket.

Defensively of course Ariza has a significant advantage, but perimeter defenders impact is quite muted compared to a PF or a C's impact. I'd prefer to have defensive minded bigs and skilled perimeter guys rather than vice versa. If were talking about paying a SF $10 mil per or so, I'd chose Hayward every single time.

Wow. I'm surprised by this. You and I usually agree about players.

I think you're way off here. I think you underrated the value of having at least one shut-down wing defender. If you have good defensive bigs, you can scheme your way into having a solid defense, but you still need that ace perimeter defender to contain elite wing players. Ariza has won a ton of games for us because Wittman has switched him onto whatever perimeter defender is hot in the 4th quarter.

And, yes, Hayward is a considerably more versatile offensive player, but we don't need versatility from our SF position. We need a guy who can nail 3's and make back-door cuts and finish in the lane. Ariza is great at that. Ariza is also a very good passer relative to his usage rate. There is only one basketball. You don't need three highly skilled offensive decision makers at the guard/wing spots. Two will do, with the third guy just being a catch-and-shoot player, as long as he's an extremely accurate catch-and-shoot player, and Ariza is.

Hayward has more potential for improvement, being the younger player, but if I had to win a game now, I'd take Ariza over Hayward 10 times out of 10 - particularly on a team with John Wall at PG.

[fishercob]

Does that mean you think the Wizards are keeping Ariza? Or just that you would like them to keep Ariza?

They'll try and keep him. Probably. Ariza is well liked by the team and has good chemistry with Wall in particular. He was definitely valuable. He doesn't really take much off the table individually.

I think Wizards fans are pretty torn about whether the team should keep him or not. On the one hand, we know he's valuable and don't want him to walk for nothing. We haven't had that many valuable players come through D.C. for a long time. And not that long ago we were playing a depressing mix of Al Thornton, Chris Singleton, Mo Evans, and a super washed up Rashard Lewis and Josh Howard at SF. And trying to talk ourselves into guys like Othyus Jeffers and Cartier Martin. Having a SF that's actually good has been a big relief.

But we also want to get something out of Otto Porter and have a balanced roster. Porter was drafted #3 overall and intended to be the long term starter. Spending a whole bunch of money to keep Ariza keeps Porter blocked from starting and ties up too many team building resources into the SF position, particularly when you factor in Webster and his full MLE deal.

Webster is also well liked by the team too. Very popular in the locker room and something of a leader. It sucks that either he or Ariza almost certainly has to go for Otto Porter to get on track.

I doubt the FO lets Ariza walk without making a sincere attempt to keep him. And I think Ariza will want to stay if the money is right. Most likely outcome is that Ariza gets an extension and continues to start and Porter takes Webster's minutes and becomes the sixth man. I think Webster will end up being the odd man out, especially if his back injury lingers.

+1 -- I follow your thinking the whole way through and it makes great sense. Only problem is, if Webster back injury lingers he'll be hard to trade.

Plus side is that he can back up Beal at the 2 (which Ariza can't do), so maybe there are still minutes for him. Even with his bad back, he's not a terrible price/performance guy if the minutes are there.

I used to think that this was true. Now I am not so sure. I don't think Webster is any better a ballhandler -- be it dribbling or passing -- than Ariza. He's an inferior defender basically regardless of matchup. Is he a better driver? I don't think so, but I imagine there is data on this that could confirm it or not.

I wonder if this gets a little bit at why Otto saw time at SG last summer in summer league before his injury -- the fact that "wings" are fairly interchangeable in this offense, and that the bulk of the ball-handling duties fall on the PG.

So if we move Webster, I wonder if non-Beal SG minutes can be filled by Ariza/Otto, and some cheap FA's (CJ Miles, Meeks, Hinrich, etc).

I enjoy Webster thoroughly, but I don't think he's all that important to the team on the floor.

[payitforward]

You guys think Hayward is as productive as Ariza? Wow. I'm glad you aren't picking players. I don't even think Ernie could be quite that off-base.

Agreed. Ariza is a much better player right now. Much better defender. A better 3-point shooter. A better rebounder. More efficient on offense. Hayward is a more versatile player, but he does everything at an "okay" level, not at a top tier level. I'd rather have a specialist like Ariza who may not be able to do everything, but the stuff he does he does superbly.

The only argument for Hayward is youth - but when we're dealing with a role player type of guy, I'm less concerned about developing guys and more concerned about finding guys who are ready to win now. When Ariza loses a step, we can replace him.

Offensively I don't see a comparison. Ariza played very well in a 3&D role but Hayward's skill set & versatility trumps anything Ariza does offensively. I don't think it's even close, put Hayward next to Wall & Beal and you have the makings of something very special at least on the offensive end. Hayward was tasked as the lead guy in Utah... surrounded by a significant lack of offensive talent. That's not his ideal role. As a 2nd/3rd option he'd likely see his efficiency skyrocket.

Defensively of course Ariza has a significant advantage, but perimeter defenders impact is quite muted compared to a PF or a C's impact. I'd prefer to have defensive minded bigs and skilled perimeter guys rather than vice versa. If were talking about paying a SF $10 mil per or so, I'd chose Hayward every single time.

This is a fun discussion. And in principle I always favor the team getting younger. But I have two concerns in what you write, Dat.

The first is that last year, per 40 minutes, Hayward only took 2 more shots than Ariza, though he did get to the line 3 more times as well. Is this as big a usage difference as you were thinking?

Second, acquiring someone on the premise that his offensive efficiency will "skyrocket" always seems risky to me -- or rather it has the feeling of a decision based on hope rather than data. Now, data can't tell you everything of course. But hope is a poor predictor of the future. How often has a 3's efficiency begun to skyrocket after he's turned 24?

[Dat2U]

Wow. I'm surprised by this. You and I usually agree about players.

I think you're way off here. I think you underrated the value of having at least one shut-down wing defender. If you have good defensive bigs, you can scheme your way into having a solid defense, but you still need that ace perimeter defender to contain elite wing players. Ariza has won a ton of games for us because Wittman has switched him onto whatever perimeter defender is hot in the 4th quarter.

And, yes, Hayward is a considerably more versatile offensive player, but we don't need versatility from our SF position. We need a guy who can nail 3's and make back-door cuts and finish in the lane. Ariza is great at that. Ariza is also a very good passer relative to his usage rate. There is only one basketball. You don't need three highly skilled offensive decision makers at the guard/wing spots. Two will do, with the third guy just being a catch-and-shoot player, as long as he's an extremely accurate catch-and-shoot player, and Ariza is.

Hayward has more potential for improvement, being the younger player, but if I had to win a game now, I'd take Ariza over Hayward 10 times out of 10 - particularly on a team with John Wall at PG.

Well let me be clear. I personally wouldn't sign either and let Porter learn on the job. I was just specifically looking at the 2 and my preference. I'm just not sold on Ariza, partly because I believe Porter can fill his role but also because Ariza has only played at this level once before... when he was in a contract year with the Lakers. I'm not saying Ariza is a dog and will immediately turn into a useless player with an untradeable contract, I'm saying I don't believe he'll maintain this high level of play going forward and I would expect him to slip back more towards his career norms. He may simply revert back to the player from the '12-13 season, the one that was solid but you really couldn't distinguish his performance from that of Martell Webster. In that case, I'd rather save the millions it would take to re-sign him and develop Porter on the spot.

[fishercob]

Wow. I'm surprised by this. You and I usually agree about players.

I think you're way off here. I think you underrated the value of having at least one shut-down wing defender. If you have good defensive bigs, you can scheme your way into having a solid defense, but you still need that ace perimeter defender to contain elite wing players. Ariza has won a ton of games for us because Wittman has switched him onto whatever perimeter defender is hot in the 4th quarter.

And, yes, Hayward is a considerably more versatile offensive player, but we don't need versatility from our SF position. We need a guy who can nail 3's and make back-door cuts and finish in the lane. Ariza is great at that. Ariza is also a very good passer relative to his usage rate. There is only one basketball. You don't need three highly skilled offensive decision makers at the guard/wing spots. Two will do, with the third guy just being a catch-and-shoot player, as long as he's an extremely accurate catch-and-shoot player, and Ariza is.

Hayward has more potential for improvement, being the younger player, but if I had to win a game now, I'd take Ariza over Hayward 10 times out of 10 - particularly on a team with John Wall at PG.

Well let me be clear. I personally wouldn't sign either and let Porter learn on the job. I was just specifically looking at the 2 and my preference. I'm just not sold on Ariza, partly because I believe Porter can fill his role but also because Ariza has only played at this level once before... when he was in a contract year with the Lakers. I'm not saying Ariza is a dog and will immediately turn into a useless player with an untradeable contract, I'm saying I don't believe he'll maintain this high level of play going forward and I would expect him to slip back more towards his career norms. He may simply revert back to the player from the '12-13 season, the one that was solid but you really couldn't distinguish his performance from that of Martell Webster. In that case, I'd rather save the millions it would take to re-sign him and develop Porter on the spot.

I think that had more to do with Webster being good last year and worse this year than Ariza drastically improving. I don't think there was a huge difference between Ariza's production this year and last year once Wall got back.

[nate33]

Wow. I'm surprised by this. You and I usually agree about players.

I think you're way off here. I think you underrated the value of having at least one shut-down wing defender. If you have good defensive bigs, you can scheme your way into having a solid defense, but you still need that ace perimeter defender to contain elite wing players. Ariza has won a ton of games for us because Wittman has switched him onto whatever perimeter defender is hot in the 4th quarter.

And, yes, Hayward is a considerably more versatile offensive player, but we don't need versatility from our SF position. We need a guy who can nail 3's and make back-door cuts and finish in the lane. Ariza is great at that. Ariza is also a very good passer relative to his usage rate. There is only one basketball. You don't need three highly skilled offensive decision makers at the guard/wing spots. Two will do, with the third guy just being a catch-and-shoot player, as long as he's an extremely accurate catch-and-shoot player, and Ariza is.

Hayward has more potential for improvement, being the younger player, but if I had to win a game now, I'd take Ariza over Hayward 10 times out of 10 - particularly on a team with John Wall at PG.

Well let me be clear. I personally wouldn't sign either and let Porter learn on the job. I was just specifically looking at the 2 and my preference. I'm just not sold on Ariza, partly because I believe Porter can fill his role but also because Ariza has only played at this level once before... when he was in a contract year with the Lakers. I'm not saying Ariza is a dog and will immediately turn into a useless player with an untradeable contract, I'm saying I don't believe he'll maintain this high level of play going forward and I would expect him to slip back more towards his career norms. He may simply revert back to the player from the '12-13 season, the one that was solid but you really couldn't distinguish his performance from that of Martell Webster. In that case, I'd rather save the millions it would take to re-sign him and develop Porter on the spot.

Okay. So you are saying that Future Ariza will not be better than Future Hayward because you think Ariza's last 1.5 seasons are flukey (and you probably assume a bit more improvement out of Hayward). I think that's a reasonable stance.

But if we're talking about who the better player was last year, I'd say it's Ariza without question. I personally don't think Ariza's performance is tied to his contract so much. I think the correlation is much greater with him playing alongside Wall and I expect it to continue as long as he continues to play alongside Wall.