JayMKE wrote:El Duderino wrote:JayMKE wrote:It's not a silly argument since Exum hasn't faced any competition, he's only played against players that he dominates physically. All those other guys have played against guys that can match up against them.
So by your logic then, if hypothetically high school players had been made eligible for last years draft, you wouldn't have taken either of Parker/Wiggins first overall because they had only faced inferior competition vs overmatched high school kids which they could dominate physically?
Last years draft sucked, the upside outweighed the risk. The upside of Exum doesn't outweigh the risk because I believe Embiid/Parker/Wiggins have upsides just as high or higher with resumes to back it up. If we were picking 15 this year like last year I wouldnt have a problem taking a chance on Exum.
There is risk in whoever the Bucks choose
FWIW, i'm not firmly in the camp that the Bucks should take Exum. If the Cavs take Embiid as they should and i expect, i'd likely take Wiggins second and am torn between Exum and Parker after that given all i have to go on with Exum is some youtube clips. Team front offices on the other hand have the time to evaluate every second of film on Exum 10 times over and see him in person.
Back to the risk factor. Exum isn't only really well liked by some random posters on this forum, he's going to go somewhere in the top 5 of a very deep draft after scouts/GM's of teams have evaluated him via countless of hours spent. So as much as you fear he could be a bust in the NBA, the reverse could easily end up happening. That teams in the top three pass on Exum for more socalled known commodities in Wiggins/Parker, then one or both ends up being only pretty good NBA players, while Exum ends up becoming special.
Those teams will then be left kicking themselves for being to scared to pick Exum because he hadn't played a year in college. Plus, it's not like Wiggins and Parker don't come with very legit red flags of their own. Wiggins struggles handling the ball, he can't go left, and his jumper needs work. Parker could be a tweener, was way to often poor defensively against lots of college kids who'll never play professionally anywhere, and his offense in conference play wasn't exactly special. So i think you are way overstating the risk aspect for only Exum compared to risks with Wiggins/Parker when it comes to the Bucks landing a badly needed special player. From what i've seen and read of all three, you could do a straw poll of say all 30 GM's and 100 plus scouts from their teams, and you'd get a wide array of picks on who they thought would end up being the best or worst long term player among Parker, Wiggins, and Exum, with no very clear consensus at all.