Official #2 Pick Thread - Ford #7: Parker

[europa]

I think Embiid has passed Wiggins in the eyes of some is due to two factors primarily:

1. NBA people LOVE skilled big men, often to the point of (sometimes massively) over-rating them. Not saying Embiid is being over-rated (although I think the Hakeem comparisons are crazy), just that he's a skilled big men and NBA people can't stop themselves from tripping all over their drool when they see one.

2. Press' shiny new toy theory.

I also think that when Wiggins didn't go all Wilt/Lew on the college world, people wanted someone else to get all worked up about.

But I still don't think all those scouts who viewed him as the No. 1 pick for so long were wrong. I think the kid has a high ceiling and remains a legit No. 1 prospect. I just hope the Cavs keep buying the Embiid Love Train and ignore all that.

As aforementioned, Wiggins and Embiid have played close to the same amount of college basketball. So Embiid is not much more of a shiny new toy.

Embiid wasn't projected to be the No. 1 pick in this draft for nearly two years, though. Wiggins was. That's all I'm saying.

[LittleRooster]

I think Embiid has passed Wiggins in the eyes of some is due to two factors primarily:

1. NBA people LOVE skilled big men, often to the point of (sometimes massively) over-rating them. Not saying Embiid is being over-rated (although I think the Hakeem comparisons are crazy), just that he's a skilled big men and NBA people can't stop themselves from tripping all over their drool when they see one.

2. Press' shiny new toy theory.

I also think that when Wiggins didn't go all Wilt/Lew on the college world, people wanted someone else to get all worked up about.

But I still don't think all those scouts who viewed him as the No. 1 pick for so long were wrong. I think the kid has a high ceiling and remains a legit No. 1 prospect. I just hope the Cavs keep buying the Embiid Love Train and ignore all that.

As aforementioned, Wiggins and Embiid have played close to the same amount of college basketball. So Embiid is not much more of a shiny new toy.

Embiid wasn't projected to be the No. 1 pick in this draft for nearly two years, though. Wiggins was. That's all I'm saying.

I told you not to be a stranger and then you leave forever. Where the **** have you been!?

[sidney lanier]

Ok you guys are going to think I'm crazy but I think Marcus Smart is going to end up being the best player in this draft. He's got brutal size and strength, great d, and underrated playmaking ability. Maybe his shooting isn't perfect but other than that he excels at pretty much every other aspect of the game. You see shooting improve in the NBA much more often than you see playmaking improve, to my eye. When Smart and Exum play one-on-one in my mind, Smart looks pretty unstoppable.

Anyway, none of that really matters since I'm sure the Bucks have the same top four as everyone else, I just don't quite get why Smart is projected where he is.

I attribute it to the echo chamber effect. The more times pundits and posters repeat that there are four candidates and only four for the top four draft positions, the less objective consideration is given to who's really the best. When all the discussion is around the six head-to-head comparisons among the top four, the more reluctant people are to advance a Vonleh or Smart or Randle or someone even less discussed (say, Nurkic).

I'd say Smart is more likely to be rookie of the year than any of the other top prospects except Parker and Randle. I don't agree that he's the most likely to succeed long term, but I expect to see a fast start.

Nice first post, and welcome.

[europa]

As aforementioned, Wiggins and Embiid have played close to the same amount of college basketball. So Embiid is not much more of a shiny new toy.

Embiid wasn't projected to be the No. 1 pick in this draft for nearly two years, though. Wiggins was. That's all I'm saying.

I told you not to be a stranger and then you leave forever. Where the **** have you been!?

The last few years of the Kohl Era took nearly all the Bucks' life outta me. Now that it's over I'm easing myself back in.

[Bernman]

^he can't shoot. point blank.

Neither could a plethora of current top NBA point guards, i.e.: Westbrook, Wall, Rose, Rondo, etc. And it hasn't stopped them.

his ball handling is also kind of sketch and i think the dwyane wade comparisons are a slap in the face to wade who was 10x the player at marquette as smart at okc.

His ball-handling isn't "kind of sketch" because of that one gif where he loses the basketball.

And speaking of losing the basketball, if you watched D-Wade at Marquette, he lost the basketball a lot. He couldn't shoot very well either. Saying Wade was 10 times the player Smart was is laughable when Smart was the #1 player in the nation according to some advanced metrics. Smart was a generational defensive player, and effected the game positively in all areas. Wade's game may have been prettier because Smart is pushing 230, but Wade wasn't much better than him, if at all.

his "character" is also overrated too. i see him kind of being a punk in the nba. and it has nothing to do with the fan incident.

You'd know better than people who are around him every day I suppose.

[Tug0bwerdna]

Is it just me or does Exums shot look horrible? Seems like he falls down a lot too.

[Zeezprah]

^he can't shoot. point blank.

Neither could a plethora of current top NBA point guards, i.e.: Westbrook, Wall, Rose, Rondo, etc. And it hasn't stopped them.

his ball handling is also kind of sketch and i think the dwyane wade comparisons are a slap in the face to wade who was 10x the player at marquette as smart at okc.

His ball-handling isn't "kind of sketch" because of that one gif where he loses the basketball.

And speaking of losing the basketball, if you watched D-Wade at Marquette, he lost the basketball a lot. He couldn't shoot very well either. Saying Wade was 10 times the player Smart was is laughable when Smart was the #1 player in the nation according to some advanced metrics. Smart was a generational defensive player, and effected the game positively in all areas. Wade's game may have been prettier because Smart is pushing 230, but Wade wasn't much better than him, if at all.

his "character" is also overrated too. i see him kind of being a punk in the nba. and it has nothing to do with the fan incident.

You'd know better than people who are around him every day I suppose.

lol DWade was a million times better. if you compare their stats in college it's night and day. also, when you saw Dwyane Wade single handedly tear apart that amazing kentucky squad on the biggest stage possible, you just knew he was gonna be special. smart did nothing of that calibur at OKC.

he's an overrated prospect because he was in contention for the #1 pick last year in an extremely weak draft, so that hype carried over. my guess is the same people who like MCW are the people who like smart. yea sure he's prolly gonna put up stats appeasing to the average eye his rookie season in the nba, i have no doubts about that. it'll be all fluff though. prolly a terrible A/TO ratio, below average FG%, and bad efficiency/advanced metrics across the board.

also, what do you think people are gonna say about him at OKC or the ones that hang around him all the time? he sucks? i never saw anything about the dude that screamed high character at all. but i guess we'll see

i guess his countless flops are entertaining

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIW1sF6xayM[/youtube]

[WiscoKing13]

This from ESPN's Jeff Goodman's

"The Bucks will have a choice between the ultra-athletic Wiggins and the skilled Parker if Embiid is off the board. That will be an agonizing decision for GM John Hammond, who will balance taking the more-NBA ready Parker and Wiggins, who appears to have the higher upside. Hammond can ill afford to miss here, and that will be why he ultimately goes with Parker."

Really hate the idea with a pick like this to trust it on a lame duck GM who is going to for wins now. This isn't to infuse the parker/wiggins debate, but show the lack of guidance being giving at the GM/Head coaching level.

[LUKE23]

I don't think it's the "shiny new toy" effect with Embiid. I just think Wiggins' took the nation by storm with the athleticism in the youtube videos while in high school. He was far more well known due to those videos, but there wasn't nearly as much written about him in terms of a scouting sense, the athleticism is what drew the rave reviews. Embiid came in as a known future NBA top 10 pick, but with far less footage or fanfare.

But I think the hype around him as the season grew was legitimate. His footwork is crazy good, and that's a big aspect for me in terms of evaluating bigs. He has ballerina type feet. His per minute production was very good, so it's not like he's a project in that sense either. He projects to be a guy that can be a defensive anchor at one end, and a "throw it down into the post" offense guy on the other. I don't think the hype around Embiid is unwarranted.

The injury risk is a valid argument, but that's really the only one, and I have a really hard time saying, "X got hurt, so Y will too". Every player is different.

[europa]

One consistent thing about Hammond in the first round is he always goes for the guy with the higher perceived upside. He hasn't always been right but that's been his MO all along. I don't think that changes even given the current situation.

[LUKE23]

This from ESPN's Jeff Goodman's

"The Bucks will have a choice between the ultra-athletic Wiggins and the skilled Parker if Embiid is off the board. That will be an agonizing decision for GM John Hammond, who will balance taking the more-NBA ready Parker and Wiggins, who appears to have the higher upside. Hammond can ill afford to miss here, and that will be why he ultimately goes with Parker."

Really hate the idea with a pick like this to trust it on a lame duck GM who is going to for wins now. This isn't to infuse the parker/wiggins debate, but show the lack of guidance being giving at the GM/Head coaching level.

Well, if Lasry/Edens are evaluating Hammond based on what the #2 pick does in year 1, we might have bigger issues on our hands. The "hold my job" thing might be legitimate, but Hammond has notoriously gone for who he believes has the highest ceiling.

[europa]

The injury risk is a valid argument, but that's really the only one, and I have a really hard time saying, "X got hurt, so Y will too". Every player is different.

Agreed but big men in the NBA get hurt. We all know it's true. So if healthy big men get hurt in the NBA, what's gonna happen with a big man who already has an existing injury? Just seems logical to assume he's at greater risk for a future injury. That's what scares the hell out of me about Embiid. The talent is there. I don't think anyone disagrees with that. But I do think the injury concern is legitimate and a legitimate reason to back off him with the second (or first) pick in the draft.

[Baddy Chuck]

I think Smarts a good prospect in the 4th best player on your team type deal. Not stylistically, but impact, something like Wes Matthews.

[Buckrageous]

This from ESPN's Jeff Goodman's

"The Bucks will have a choice between the ultra-athletic Wiggins and the skilled Parker if Embiid is off the board. That will be an agonizing decision for GM John Hammond, who will balance taking the more-NBA ready Parker and Wiggins, who appears to have the higher upside. Hammond can ill afford to miss here, and that will be why he ultimately goes with Parker."

Really hate the idea with a pick like this to trust it on a lame duck GM who is going to for wins now. This isn't to infuse the parker/wiggins debate, but show the lack of guidance being giving at the GM/Head coaching level.

This is why I think if Hammond is really a lame duck GM someone else should be running the draft. This might be the highest pick they will have for the foreseeable future along with 3 seconds. Why would you leave such an important draft to a guy you dont have faith in?

[paulpressey25]

Sure. I like his skill set quite a bit more, but I don't see the seamless transition to elite NBA scorer that most do, either.

I'm not guaranteeing elite scorer, although I think that's what we all hope for. I'd put elite scorers at guys who average 23-30ppg.

Given Wiggins physical tools and the fact he's going to be featured like crazy by whoever drafts him, I just don't see an issue with him averaging at least 20ppg by year two at the latest and at a minimum settling in as a 20-22ppg guy. Here's why:

a) Baddy's stats sort of refute the eye test regarding Jabari being substantially better offensively.

b) The last two weeks of the NCAA season it seemed like Wiggins was starting to break out -- ie. the 28ppg average his last four before the final loss.

c) We all watched Kansas this year. Those other players were horrible and selfish, hence Wiggins wasn't relied on to be the man like Jabari was at Duke.

d) I went back and watched his DX highlights video from last year, and it sure seemed like he showed a ton of different offensive moves and ability. I had been brainwashed that Wiggins was a robotic stiff from recollections of games five months ago, but watching that video, he did a lot of diverse things.

e) I am drunk on that workout tape Chad Ford released. How could you not be? This is not Gerald Green. Wiggins is smoothly knocking down jumper after jumper while at the same time looking like he could leap from the FT line and dunk whenever he wants to.

[ReasonablySober]

Literally every single workout video we've watched the last two weeks shows players going 100% from 24 feet. Aaron Gordon looked like a rich man's Ray Allen.

[raysbookclub]

This from ESPN's Jeff Goodman's

"The Bucks will have a choice between the ultra-athletic Wiggins and the skilled Parker if Embiid is off the board. That will be an agonizing decision for GM John Hammond, who will balance taking the more-NBA ready Parker and Wiggins, who appears to have the higher upside. Hammond can ill afford to miss here, and that will be why he ultimately goes with Parker."

Really hate the idea with a pick like this to trust it on a lame duck GM who is going to for wins now. This isn't to infuse the parker/wiggins debate, but show the lack of guidance being giving at the GM/Head coaching level.

I don't understand the reporter's logic. If Hammond picks Parker, and Parker has a better rookie year than Wiggins, that's not going to be enough to save his job. Or if he picks Wiggins, and Parker has a better rookie year, that's not going to be what gets him fired.

[Profound23]

Outside of who I want the Bucks to pick, I will look at who they will pick.

Embiid not releasing medical documents to Milwaukee, means he doesn't want to be in Milwaukee or he is hiding something. I doubt Hammond takes him.

Parker is a "sure bet" to be good, not great.......not a Hammond pick. He goes with boom or bust.

Wiggins will be the pick, if he goes #1 then I fear it will be Exum.

[Bernman]

lol DWade was a million times better. if you compare their stats in college it's night and day. also, when you saw Dwyane Wade single handedly tear apart that amazing kentucky squad on the biggest stage possible, you just knew he was gonna be special. smart did nothing of that calibur at OKC.

he's an overrated prospect because he was in contention for the #1 pick last year in an extremely weak draft, so that hype carried over. my guess is the same people who like MCW are the people who like smart. yea sure he's prolly gonna put up stats appeasing to the average eye his rookie season in the nba, i have no doubts about that. it'll be all fluff though. prolly a terrible A/TO ratio, below average FG%, and bad efficiency/advanced metrics across the board.

also, what do you think people are gonna say about him at OKC or the ones that hang around him all the time? he sucks? i never saw anything about the dude that screamed high character at all. but i guess we'll see

i guess his countless flops are entertaining

Just because you say lol and a million times better, doesn't constitute a case.

The case you tried to make afterward, if that's what that was, was really poor.

a. as aforementioned, Smart was the #1 player in the nation according to some metrics, among all the prospects he's being compared to. http://godismyjudgeok.com/DStats/2013/nba-stats/ncaa-advanced-statistical-plus-minus-released/ Those metrics include efficiency and to's by the way, as they are advanced.

b. That stat wasn't around when Wade was in college. He was several points higher in PER, but that doesn't factor in defense that much, which is Smart's strength biggest strength, and Wade was only considered above average in college, so that makes up most of the gap.

c. his character was getting talked up after his stint with the U.S. national team too, and they didn't have to deal with him after that. The praise for how good of a teammate he was, was also disproportionate.

d. who cares about entertainment and flopping? We're talking about effectiveness here. Bringing up those other factors shows you have an emotional bias here, although so did the rest of your post's content.

BTW, there is no such school as "OKC". He went to Ok St.

[SkilesTheLimit]

This from ESPN's Jeff Goodman's

"The Bucks will have a choice between the ultra-athletic Wiggins and the skilled Parker if Embiid is off the board. That will be an agonizing decision for GM John Hammond, who will balance taking the more-NBA ready Parker and Wiggins, who appears to have the higher upside. Hammond can ill afford to miss here, and that will be why he ultimately goes with Parker."

Really hate the idea with a pick like this to trust it on a lame duck GM who is going to for wins now. This isn't to infuse the parker/wiggins debate, but show the lack of guidance being giving at the GM/Head coaching level.

This is why I think if Hammond is really a lame duck GM someone else should be running the draft. This might be the highest pick they will have for the foreseeable future along with 3 seconds. Why would you leave such an important draft to a guy you dont have faith in?

Recall BuckPack's post on May 8th:

Sale will be done shortly. No decision has been made on the front office--I do expect Hammond to be the GM when the selection is made, though I would be surprised if he's the GM much beyond that.


So...maybe he's not "safe" going into this season?