2013-14 Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[mysticbb]

My vote hasn't changed:

1. James
2. Paul
3. Durant
4. Love
5. Curry

HM: Nowitzki, Aldridge, Harden

[Doctor MJ]

Griffin has much better handles than Love, or any other PF save Dirk for that matter. Griffin can handle full court, and more importantly, he can attack from the 3-point line. He can catch the ball 20-24 feet away, and use his dribble to get 12 feet away from the hoop, and then begin his real attack from there. He's not limited by the effectiveness of his post-entry passers/pick-n-roll partners as much as other frontcourt players. Think Charles Barkley.

Thanks for addressing and you're right that's a clear point in Griffin's favor...

...but Griffin's shot chart is red as the devil, whereas Love is a true threat to the defense all the way out to 3-point land.

I'll submit to you that Griffin's handles are actually considerably more impressive to me than Dirk's, and yet I think we all know that a prime Dirk is a far more dangerous threat. Why? Because he's a threat to the defense every where and is a great decision maker with regards to passing the ball...which brings us back to Love.

I'll note when you say to think Barkley, Barkley was much more of threat from range than Griffin is, and he was a much superior rebounder, y'know, like Love.

I'll also mention that when we see guys with phenomenal handles far exceeding Griffin's who can't score from range, the teams tend to struggle in the clutch. I mean heck, that's Rubio in Minnesota after all. If you think Griffin could become a supersized Wade on offense with his handles then I totally get why you'd be sold on him over Love (Christ, that would be scary), but in general, handles aren't enough to save you.

[ElGee]

Steph Curry remains my clear #3 choice. I'm seeing others list either Chris Paul or Blake Griffin for that spot, which is of course part of why neither is likely to best Curry for me who led a team with a major injury to basically a draw against the Paul/Griffin team.

This is really your reasoning on this? I caution against this for numerous reasons:

-7 game sample is small -- too small to determine "they are even teams"
-Even if the teams played to a draw, that is matchup dependent (sample opponent size = 1)
-Even if they truly were equal teams, that still does not prevent Paul and Griffin from BOTH being better than the opponent's best player in defeat.

[Doctor MJ]

Steph Curry remains my clear #3 choice. I'm seeing others list either Chris Paul or Blake Griffin for that spot, which is of course part of why neither is likely to best Curry for me who led a team with a major injury to basically a draw against the Paul/Griffin team.

This is really your reasoning on this? I caution against this for numerous reasons:

-7 game sample is small -- too small to determine "they are even teams"
-Even if the teams played to a draw, that is matchup dependent (sample opponent size = 1)
-Even if they truly were equal teams, that still does not prevent Paul and Griffin from BOTH being better than the opponent's best player in defeat.

It's just part of the puzzle.

Look, Curry's obviously a phenomenal player by any metric we look at, and he's got a set of gifts that no one else has in quite the way he does. All that is the starting point of course.

What we've also seen in the past two years is that the Warriors have looked tougher in the post-season than in the regular season in part because there just doesn't seem to be an answer to a smart point guard with incredible shooting ability.

Going back to the Clippers:
-Griffin's a great player, but he's also an offensive big (which I'm not as confident about in general) and he in many ways takes a backseat to Paul when Paul is out there.
-Paul was my #3 last year and by no means am I convinced that Curry's a better player than Paul. But Paul did miss time this year enough that Griffin became the team's MVP in the regular season, and that plays a factor for me here.

But additionally on the notion of the two guys playing together: I question their synergy. Paul's in/out impact seems like it doesn't match his on/off impact there, and I do think that there is some degree of disconnect in terms of how Paul would like to play (slower) and how Griffin would like to play (faster).

[ElGee]

It's going to come down to how LeBron does against the Spurs. Granted, I'm expecting that to be enough for him to win out.

Using this as a launchpad for some of my thoughts heading into the Finals:

I'm already anticipating a Spurs win, and the Spurs have a great defense. For LeBron in this series, I'll almost strictly be looking at ability to exert defense pressure/energy throughout extended periods of the series as well as the way in which he attacks the wall the Spurs will likely build against him. The Heat countered this last year by trying to create spacing mismatches where the Spurs couldn't overload on LeBron, so I'm keeping that in mind out of the gate for his modes of attack. (That means that if he's making skip passes left and right and getting his teammates great shots, I'm not concerned with whether those shots fall in evaluating James.) This also means that if he goes nuclear I'll be pretty darn impressed, but I would have to see a lot for him to not take the top spot. A 2011 Dallas repeat wouldn't necessarily change that depending on how it went down.

I agree with most in terms of the group of players with candidacy:

Paul
Griffin
Curry
Howard
Love
Dirk
LMA
Westbrook
Anthony
George
Parker
Duncan
Gasol

That's probably my top-15, although the guys at the bottom of the list are fringe and I won't leave out the possibility that a few guys could bump them down. Out of those, I see a pretty "clear" top 8, although this group has small separation after the top3:

LBJ
Durant
Paul
Westbrook
Curry
Griffin
Love
Aldridge

Griffin really impressed me this year. Better court awareness on offense. Better mid-range jumper. Better passing decisions. Better defensive awareness. I'm impressed with his development into a clear superstar. He's like a Karl Malone-lite to me, and not that lite at that.

Love -- the thing I come back to is defense. I haven't seen any statistical evidence that his defense is anything above a liability. I like the rebounding but what else? This creates problems for bigs for me.

LMA -- probably his best year. Still doing good work on defense -- yeoman's work at times. A slightly improved jumper.

I think the top-5 are:
LBJ
Durant
Paul
Curry
Westbrook

And that's probably how I'll vote. I have a hard time making a case for Paul over Durant, especially with missed time. I see Curry as more portable than Russ and he didn't miss a bunch of games either. More on Curry and RW later.

Really tricky when the league isn't top-heavy in talent. I'm looking at +3's and +3.5's for these spots. For comparison, the weakest top-5 ever for me was 1978, where after Erving and Kareem it was a group of +3's. To me, these last 2 years are the weakest 3-pt era star lineup since 1999.

[ElGee]

Steph Curry remains my clear #3 choice. I'm seeing others list either Chris Paul or Blake Griffin for that spot, which is of course part of why neither is likely to best Curry for me who led a team with a major injury to basically a draw against the Paul/Griffin team.

This is really your reasoning on this? I caution against this for numerous reasons:

-7 game sample is small -- too small to determine "they are even teams"
-Even if the teams played to a draw, that is matchup dependent (sample opponent size = 1)
-Even if they truly were equal teams, that still does not prevent Paul and Griffin from BOTH being better than the opponent's best player in defeat.

It's just part of the puzzle.

Look, Curry's obviously a phenomenal player by any metric we look at, and he's got a set of gifts that no one else has in quite the way he does. All that is the starting point of course.

What we've also seen in the past two years is that the Warriors have looked tougher in the post-season than in the regular season in part because there just doesn't seem to be an answer to a smart point guard with incredible shooting ability.

Going back to the Clippers:
-Griffin's a great player, but he's also an offensive big (which I'm not as confident about in general) and he in many ways takes a backseat to Paul when Paul is out there.
-Paul was my #3 last year and by no means am I convinced that Curry's a better player than Paul. But Paul did miss time this year enough that Griffin became the team's MVP in the regular season, and that plays a factor for me here.

But additionally on the notion of the two guys playing together: I question their synergy. Paul's in/out impact seems like it doesn't match his on/off impact there, and I do think that there is some degree of disconnect in terms of how Paul would like to play (slower) and how Griffin would like to play (faster).

Can you elaborate on how you see Griffin as the team's MVP in the RS?

[colts18]

Elgee, I don't see how you can put Westbrook ahead of Griffin. Westbrook played just 46 games this year. Griffin had more than 2x the minutes played than Westbrook. That is a massive difference and there is no way that RW impact was 2x more per minute. If Westbrook was leading a normal team, chances are they don't make the playoffs because he played in just 36% of his teams minute.

I can't see how RW had more impact at all. When he missed games, the Thunder barely missed a beat. Durant played his best basketball ever. When CP3 missed 20 games, Griffin stepped up and the Clippers barely fell off without CP3. Griffin should be ahead of CP3 because of the fact that the Clippers didn't dropoff much without CP3. Plus, Blake Griffin actually led the NBA in plus/minus this season.

[Doctor MJ]

Can you elaborate on how you see Griffin as the team's MVP in the RS?

Well I don't think the case is that complicated. He missed time. Griffin was there for quite a few more of the Clippers wins than Paul was, during which the team still looked pretty capable.

Whether that's enough to give Griffin the nod I understand why some might disagree, but surely you see why one might see it as so?

[Doctor MJ]

I think the top-5 are:
LBJ
Durant
Paul
Curry
Westbrook

Can you elaborate on Westbrook as you see him in general here?

Also, what's your take on the whole Durant-Westbrook-Brooks love triangle? Do you think this is a smart offense?

[sp6r=underrated]

I think the top-5 are:
LBJ
Durant
Paul
Curry
Westbrook

Can you elaborate on Westbrook as you see him in general here?

Also, what's your take on the whole Durant-Westbrook-Brooks love triangle? Do you think this is a smart offense?

I noticed you requested a name for what is happening to the Thunder under Scott Brooks. How about Brian Hill The Sequel?

Both coaches racked up marvelous records yet looking at the rosters you have to be disappointed by the performance of both clubs.

[SideshowBob]

Premlinary Ballot

Spoiler:

1. Lebron James
2. Kevin Durant
3. Chris Paul
4. Dirk Nowitzki
5. Blake Griffin
6. Lamarcus Aldridge
7. Stephen Curry
8. Kevin Love
9. Dwight Howard
10. James Harden
11. Paul George
12. Andre Iguodala
13. Carmelo Anthony
14. Roy Hibbert
15. Manu Ginobili

What a stacked year. That middle cluster is really tight and there's a huge number of guys on my mind that do fit into the bottom section (Noah's somewhere on here, Lillard deserves consideration, Thompson, Wall, Beal, etc.)

.

James
Durant
Paul

Griffin/Curry

Is what I'm leaning. Love, Nowitzki, Aldridge, Westbrook on the outside looking in.

[Doctor MJ]

I think the top-5 are:
LBJ
Durant
Paul
Curry
Westbrook

Can you elaborate on Westbrook as you see him in general here?

Also, what's your take on the whole Durant-Westbrook-Brooks love triangle? Do you think this is a smart offense?

I noticed you requested a name for what is happening to the Thunder under Scott Brooks. How about Brian Hill The Sequel?

Both coaches racked up marvelous records yet looking at the rosters you have to be disappointed by the performance of both clubs.

I actually suggested the name Brownian Motion to the phenomenon after the two time Cavalier coach.

[PaulieWal]

Can you elaborate on Westbrook as you see him in general here?

Also, what's your take on the whole Durant-Westbrook-Brooks love triangle? Do you think this is a smart offense?

I noticed you requested a name for what is happening to the Thunder under Scott Brooks. How about Brian Hill The Sequel?

Both coaches racked up marvelous records yet looking at the rosters you have to be disappointed by the performance of both clubs.

I actually suggested the name Brownian Motion to the phenomenon after the two time Cavalier coach.

Doctor MJ, can you please check your PMs and reply? Thanks.

[mysticbb]

Griffin really impressed me this year. Better court awareness on offense. Better mid-range jumper. Better passing decisions. Better defensive awareness. I'm impressed with his development into a clear superstar. He's like a Karl Malone-lite to me, and not that lite at that.

Love -- the thing I come back to is defense. I haven't seen any statistical evidence that his defense is anything above a liability. I like the rebounding but what else? This creates problems for bigs for me.

LMA -- probably his best year. Still doing good work on defense -- yeoman's work at times. A slightly improved jumper.

Synergy Stats on Defense:

Love 0.84 (109)
Aldridge 0.85 (136)
Griffin 0.87 (177)

Defense based on prior informed RAPM (talkingpractice):

Aldridge 2.35
Griffin 1.21
Love 0.09

Defense based on RPM (Engelmann via ESPN):

Aldridge 3.22
Griffin 2.02
Love 1.55

I think the top-5 are:
LBJ
Durant
Paul
Curry
Westbrook

Is Westbrook in that based on average playing level in 2014, or just based on those better games he had in the playoffs? For me, not even the average playing level in the PS for Westbrook, which was better than his RS level, would be enough to put him into the Top5 based on playing level alone. So, the question for me would be: Can it be that Westbrook is just in that for you based on a small sample?

[Dr Positivity]

George's offensive stats aren't top 5 but his combination of defense and spacing is so valuable on its own. And as for his stats he still produced high volume numbers 22pt 3.5-4 ast in a system that's hardly nerd friendly. The Pacers team results in regular season and playoffs for the good but not great talent around him (no other outright all-star) is impressive to me as well. When building a champion team I'd only rather have LBJ Durant and CP before him atm. Other than that give me the best wing defender who hits 3s and can handle high offensive usage

This has nothing to do with George but is focused on the Pacers: Are you really impressed with the Pacers performance in the post-season?

In the first round they were basically played to a draw by an Atlanta Hawks team that is basically a lottery team.

In the second round they outplayed the Wizard by a small margin. The Wizards this year performed at the level of an 8 seed.

In the conference finals they were convincingly smoked by Miami. Miami is a great club but they aren't as good as last year. Brooklyn actually gave Miami a better go of it. The only reason the series went 6 is because of the absurd game 5 officiating.

It seems unlikely they would have made it out of the first round if the conferences were balanced based on how they finished the season. They pretty clearly played below their talent level in two of the three series and the 2nd half of the RS.

The Pacers made it look ugly, but in the end getting to G6 of the ECF was not under performing. My point is more that the Pacers had a strong year results wise for a roster who's 2nd-4th most valuable were Lance, Hibbert before he went in a vampire coffin for a few months and a declining West, with a usually unimpressive bench. Enough for PG as the 4th most valuable player to check out for me

Some of the reasons have been covered why he's not top 5 offensively, handles, etc. but to me George is one of the most valuable players in the league on defense and spacing alone, for the same reason Bosh is still top 20 (if not as valuable as guys like Love, Dirk and Griffin) To me George is still a top 15-20 player if he's averaging 15ppg. That he's able to be a high volume scorer on a team who desperately needed it, including a torrid start that pulled IND to the 1 seed, is the bonus on top of this. He isn't a perfect player but the competition for the last 3 spots also have some warts, there's a high amount of these special talents who haven't gotten to season 7 or 8 yet which is when their best years are likely to start. I tend to look at things as who helps me build a title caliber team the most and as much as I love Steph Griffin Love etc my feeling right now is PG's skillset goes the farthest after LBJ and Durant/Paul

[therealbig3]

I haven't really seen enough to change much of my stance...except that LeBron is officially my #1 player. As long as he doesn't wet the bed against the Spurs, he has it over Durant. Durant really disappointed in the playoffs.

1. LeBron James
2. Kevin Durant
3. Stephen Curry
4. Blake Griffin
5. Chris Paul

[Mutnt]

1. James
2. Durant
3. Paul
4. Curry
5. Love

Next five in some order: Aldridge, Davis, Griffin, Harden & Nowitzki

[Quotatious]

Right now, I think my list would be:

1. LeBron James
2. Kevin Durant
3. Chris Paul
4. Blake Griffin
5. Paul George

then

6. Dwight Howard
7. Stephen Curry
8. Kevin Love
9. LaMarcus Aldridge
10. Russell Westbrook

LMA/Westbrook might be in the reverse order, but I'm leaning towards Aldridge because of more games played.

[mysticbb]

I wonder how much the perception about Aldridge and Nowitzki would change, if they swap the respective 1st round opponents. Nowitzki in the 4 RS games vs. the Rockets had 31.5/8.5/3 on 69 TS% and 4.6 To-R. Aldridge's numbers in the playoffs are heavily influenced by the matchup situation, where the Rockets had no adequate individual defender against him. If we compare Nowitzki's performance in his last 5 games vs. Spurs with Aldridge's performance in 5 games vs. Spurs:

21/9/2 on 51 TS% vs. 22/10/1 on 46 TS%

Well, not much of a difference to see here. In fact, if we adjust that for minutes and pace, Nowitzki comes up ahead here. So, how much is the perception of Aldridge being better than Nowitzki here based on the fact that Aldridge looked good against a team, which Nowitzki killed as well (keep in mind, the Mavericks outscored the Rockets in each game with Nowitzki on the court!).

[Texas Chuck]

I just want to put a little perspective into Durant's "disappointing playoffs" 30/9/4 57\%TS.

So while not up to the absurd standards of his RS, how many all-time greats would kill to have a playoff run like that statistically? And its hard to be too angry that the Thunder lost to the Spurs.