Re-imagining the Jays Line Up

[Randle McMurphy]

Gose is a bad hitter, so he's fine where he is. He'll also likely be on the bench within a week due to Colby's return, if not completely off the roster.

[Lateral Quicks]

Why are people so quick to leave Lind as the cleanup hitter? His numbers don't justify it at all - especially when your team has TWO of the best power hitters in the AL

Lind has the highest OPS on the team, and he only bats cleanup when he's in the lineup.

You seem to be trying to poke holes in this lineup which I find odd since it's arguably the best offense in baseball.

[MikeM]

Why are people so quick to leave Lind as the cleanup hitter? His numbers don't justify it at all - especially when your team has TWO of the best power hitters in the AL

He bats cleanup vs. RHP. He's a top 5 hitter in baseball vs. RHP according to the numbers.

[Santoki]

Why are people so quick to leave Lind as the cleanup hitter? His numbers don't justify it at all - especially when your team has TWO of the best power hitters in the AL

He's only in the lineup against righties and he's currently hitting them just about better than anyone in baseball right now. That makes me think they'll leave him where he is despite the chances he gets matched up with a lefty later in the game.

[satyr9]

Lind 4th is about covering up a weakness, not rewarding him as cleanup. If the lineup was Lind/Lawrie/Francisco 5-7 after EE there'd be nothing to stop teams from using their lefty in that situation. Using Jose and EE to sandwich Lind means to go away from his strength you have to burn an LHP, which is brutal for the manager. Since they're going to keep an righty in their anyway, he becomes decent protection, especially because he himself is so well protected. So if you want to use one lefty on Lind and Francisco you have to keep him in against EE.

But it's likely true that Bautista has gotten an extra couple walks compared to chances to hit because of Lind hitting 4th instead of EE.

[whysoserious]

You may be right .... but Gose has about the same walk ratio as Reyes, and also has fewer K / AB. Yes, small sample size ... but his ability to laydown a strong bunt single is huge. Almost Kenny Lofton like.

In nothing else, I think Gose should be tried as a table setter following the cleanup spot

This is only one weapon. Gose is not going to do this a lot and putting him up there cause he can you're almost suggesting we rely on this type of offense from him.

He may eventually become the perfect lead off guy, he's not there yet and Reyes is doing his job at the top. Everything is clicking on offense right now, what's the point of making this change? To force Gose in to a role?

Let Gose spend the year down at the bottom and first establish he's a major leaguer, then we can look at where he fits in the lineup. A small good streak by him doesn't justify completely changing the lineup.

[tecumseh18]

But it's likely true that Bautista has gotten an extra couple walks compared to chances to hit because of Lind hitting 4th instead of EE.

When a batter has an OPS of 1.000, does it matter to the team over the long run whether he takes the walk or has a chance to hit?

[Boogie!]

There's a lot of "politics" that go into setting the batting order. To risk disrupting chemistry when the team is doing well makes no sense. And who's to say that Gose will be in the line-up when Rasmus (who can "protect" EE, if such a thing even exists) returns.

But on the other side of the ball, am I crazy for thinking that this winter's project should be to convert Lawrie to SS and move Reyes to 2B?

i agree… idk why they haven't tried that yet.

[Schad]

Project should be to move Reyes to 2B and leave Lawrie at 3B. He's never, ever going to be a shortstop; he has good range, but he doesn't have shortstop range.

[tecumseh18]

Project should be to move Reyes to 2B and leave Lawrie at 3B. He's never, ever going to be a shortstop; he has good range, but he doesn't have shortstop range.

But will Lawrie ever hit the numbers you expect from your third baseman? It's considered an "offensive" position, n'est-ce pas? That's why we can tolerate putting Francisco there (but NOT Edwin - never again!)

Here's what Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus has determined about OPS by position:

POS BAD AVG GOOD ELITE
C 666 748 826 853
1B 758 858 952 987
2B 702 762 820 862
3B 718 805 902 958
SS 666 749 829 859
LF 745 825 915 959
CF 691 777 837 851
RF 766 815 867 890

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=6516

Average 3Ber has a .805 OPS. With an current OPS of .692, Lawrie is "bad" for his position. Actually, he's "bad" for any position, but at least he's only 57 points behind the average SS. His lifetime OPS of .745 and his youth (still only 24) would suggest that he can be better in the future, but this team is in win-now mode.

I accept that he doesn't have the range you want from SS, but who on this roster (or in the high minors) does? The OP said that we need Lawrie at third to make up for Reyes' lack of range, so his range couldn't be that bad.

[PimpHandStrong]

Project should be to move Reyes to 2B and leave Lawrie at 3B. He's never, ever going to be a shortstop; he has good range, but he doesn't have shortstop range.

But will Lawrie ever hit the numbers you expect from your third baseman? It's considered an "offensive" position, n'est-ce pas? That's why we can tolerate putting Francisco there (but NOT Edwin - never again!)

Here's what Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus has determined about OPS by position:

POS BAD AVG GOOD ELITE
C 666 748 826 853
1B 758 858 952 987
2B 702 762 820 862
3B 718 805 902 958
SS 666 749 829 859
LF 745 825 915 959
CF 691 777 837 851
RF 766 815 867 890

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=6516

Average 3Ber has a .805 OPS. With an current OPS of .692, Lawrie is "bad" for his position. Actually, he's "bad" for any position, but at least he's only 57 points behind the average SS. His lifetime OPS of .745 and his youth (still only 24) would suggest that he can be better in the future, but this team is in win-now mode.

I accept that he doesn't have the range you want from SS, but who on this roster (or in the high minors) does? The OP said that we need Lawrie at third to make up for Reyes' lack of range, so his range couldn't be that bad.

If you want to stick with OPS, you probably need to knock 5-10% off those numbers, as hitting stats are a bit different today than they were in 2005-2007.

Just to give you an idea, in 2007 the MLB-wide OPS for 3B was .766. So far this season it's .708.

[Schad]

Lawrie's below-average offense at third is offset by his well-above-average defense...third these days is on par with second base in terms of defensive value. Move him to short however and you'd get bad defense paired with below-average offense; he'd be a liability in every facet.

[kavan]

Reyes
Melky
Jose
EE
Lind/Colby/Francisco
Navaro/Krats
Gose

Not likely as you're missing a 2B in that lineup. If Rasmus comes back while everyone else is healthy and unslumped it'll be

Reyes
Cabrera
Bautista
Lind
EE
Francisco
Lawrie
Rasmus
Navarro

Not sure what they'll do with Gose at that point. I'd love to keep him as a 4th. His speed and defense are obviously better than Pillar's, but first, Gose's a lefty, so that's a negative, and second, I think they want to keep him playing every day, which they can't do when Melky/Jose/Colby are all healthy. I think if things remain steady when Colby's back, Gose'll have to be the one to go back to Buffalo simply 'cause Pillar plays as a RH bat off the bench. It's not a huge deal and they could see it differently, but that's my guess. Of course no decision will be made until it has to be made 'cause any type of injury could make that tough choice for you in a split second.

edit: I realized there's way more strangeness with Kavan's lineup. Is it only 7 strong or are all three lefties hitting in a row? If the three lefties, you're still down a 2B with 4 OFers. If it's 7 deep, we better not hit our catchers 6th when everyone's healthy. That'd be insane.

I didnt post the entire line up, just showing a chunk of it, the unknowns are left out and or platoons like Lawire/Jeff/Kratz/Tolleson will obv be in the line just not sure where. But we had one line up where Gose was hitting after Jeff and Navaro that was the point. But def I think Gose should stay up I dont see EE hitting 5th in that line up he should be hitting behind Jose I can see Lind and Rasmus being split up by Lawrie but it will happen where we will have to have a few lefties in a row because that is how it happens.