Horford for #1 Pick?

[Rip2137]

Guys, I'm sorry but you don't trade a grand slam of a big man for a chance that you will hit ANOTHER.

The Big in the NBA is like the QB in the NFL. When you get a good one, you better hang on to him because it is the position with the highest bust ratio.

We hit the jackpot there. We have a player that is legit top 5 in the NBA in his position. You don't trade him to draft a guy at the SAME position because he MIGHT become as good as the guy you are trading. If we are talking about moving him and drafting a dynamic wing, then that's more of a MAYBE, but still, I just don't agree with moving a guy as good as Horford when his position makes him proverbial platinum in the NBA.

Off the top of my head, the last time this "lets trade a 20-10 big for a young big that we hope will average 20-10" was the Bulls moving Brand for Chandler. And they went on to be garbage for years after that. A big's numbers and production in college and overseas means next to NOTHING when it comes to evaluating them. That is why the Pervis Ellison's, Benoit Benjamin's, Eddy Curry's, Kwame Brown's, Darko Milicic's, Andrei Bargnani's, Chis Kaman's Michael Olowokandi's and other "can't miss" big men have been such colossal failures.

Seriously, look at the NBA draft history and look at the top of the draft's. The guys that flamed out are more often than not what position? So we get one of the "wins" there and you say "trade him...I'm sure we can get it right TWICE". Seriously, you put a million dollars on 4 black and the roulette ball lands there, you don't go double or nothing. You realize that you are the luckiest SOB on the planet and look to add to your wealth in other places.

[Jamaaliver]

^Dude, I love AL Horford. Like seriously LOVE the dude. He's my favorite Hawk and possibly my favorite player in the NBA.

He ain't a 20/10 guy.

He ain't a superstar.

And the goal is to field a great team that contends for championships...

Not field an under-sized Center who struggles with injuries, has a limited post game and always seems to wilt in the playoffs. (Career playoff avg of 12 ppg)

AL Horford doesn't want to spend the rest of his career struggling at Center going nowhere in the playoffs. Truth is, if we don't move him to the 4 and we don't improve drastically as a team in the next 2 years, there's a strong chance he'll leave the team in 2016.

No one wants to spend their entire career struggling on a middling team going nowhere.

[Yungsta404]

Does anyone know what teams will have cap space in 2016?

cause if we arent a contender by then I really do believe horford will leave and go to a team that gives him a better chance of winning. I highly doubt he will stay here if we remain status quo.

[theatlfan]

Does anyone know what teams will have cap space in 2016?

cause if we arent a contender by then I really do believe horford will leave and go to a team that gives him a better chance of winning. I highly doubt he will stay here if we remain status quo.

Can I get a definition of "status quo"? If we talk to the #1 max FA on the market every year, is that part of the status quo? If we prove to him that we can go out and sign guys for 10% his cost who can replace him and we still make the playoffs, is that status quo?

Look, I'm not one that believes anyone on the team is untouchable, but the argument here is the same argument when Joe Johnson hit FA - there isn't (and won't be) too many teams that would have both the cap room to sign Horford and a team that is ready to compete. Kick in the fact that Ferry usually has us at least being discussed in the rumors for big names in the market then we're actually a really good landing spot for FA leaving other teams - so forth one already here.

[Jamaaliver]

Status Quo for me:

40-50 win seasons that consistently flame out in the 1st or 2nd round.

In my 18 years as a Hawks fan, I've known only mediocrity or flat out irrelevance.

Danny Ferry on status quo when he took over:

“The status quo wasn’t going to be good enough to reach our goals...

http://blogs.ajc.com/mark-bradley-blog/2012/07/11/ferry-on-his-remade-hawks-status-quo-wasnt-good-enough/

...I think, we recognized that to get better some changes had to happen. The best we could do was status quo. And that wasn’t good enough for anybody.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/qa-hawks-gm-danny-ferry-on-dwight-howard-josh-smith-basketball-analytics-and-sam-prestis-wikipedia-page/

[theatlfan]

Status Quo for me:

40-50 win seasons that consistently flame out in the 1st or 2nd round.

In my 18 years as a Hawks fan, I've known only mediocrity or flat out irrelevance.

Danny Ferry on status quo when he took over:

“The status quo wasn’t going to be good enough to reach our goals...

http://blogs.ajc.com/mark-bradley-blog/2012/07/11/ferry-on-his-remade-hawks-status-quo-wasnt-good-enough/

...I think, we recognized that to get better some changes had to happen. The best we could do was status quo. And that wasn’t good enough for anybody.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/qa-hawks-gm-danny-ferry-on-dwight-howard-josh-smith-basketball-analytics-and-sam-prestis-wikipedia-page/

I agree with your definition but maybe my point wasn't clear. Ferry is doing things that are obviously intent on moving us away from the status quo. The quotes you cite here show his goal and I do believe that his actions (from my post above) show he is attempting to break it. My bigger point was what team would have both the cap space to sign Horford and the ability to bring above this status quo immediately (I don't think he'd be looking for a rebuild at that point)? There would be very few that could legitimately lay a claim to having fulfilling these requirements.

[Jamaaliver]

My bigger point was what team would have both the cap space to sign Horford and the ability to bring above this status quo immediately (I don't think he'd be looking for a rebuild at that point)? There would be very few that could legitimately lay a claim to having fulfilling these requirements.

You know how quickly things can change in the NBA. A big trade, a late amnesty, the emergence of a young player. Four years ago the power in the East lay in BOS, CLE and Orlando. They all had young superstars and had each made a Finals run.

Three years later MIA, Indy and CHI are (arguably) the top 3 Eastern teams while the previous teams are in rebuild mode.

I can't say for sure which team will be contenders with cap space 24 months from now. (I'm good, but not THAT good.) But LAL will likely be in better shape. NYK under Phil Jackson's guidance seems a safe bet. Memphis will be free from Zach Randolph and Tayshaun's contracts. Denver will have space. Dallas COULD have space and can offer a top coach. WAS with Beal and Wall could be a top team with cap space.

Indiana will be free from David West & Roy Hibbert contracts. San Antonio will likely be without Duncan, but with Coach Pop, Tony Parker and Kawhi in tow, they will likely still be contending for titles.

SAS I predict is our top threat. He knows the system, he fits in the mold of their kind of player.

But never underestimate Pat Riley, either.

With so many top players coming into free agency in 2015, Horford will likely be one of the bigger prizes out there the following summer.

[Hawkeyes]

Who would we draft? I'd be pretty nervous about drafting Embiid considering the kid just had injury issues in college. I'd prefer if we picked someone like Wiggins with a ton of upside and few injury risks in that position, or Parker. A lot of risk is involved...a lot of scouts think Embiid has the most upside, but I'd be nervous about picking him.

[atlantabbq99]

Who would we draft? I'd be pretty nervous about drafting Embiid considering the kid just had injury issues in college. I'd prefer if we picked someone like Wiggins with a ton of upside and few injury risks in that position, or Parker. A lot of risk is involved...a lot of scouts think Embiid has the most upside, but I'd be nervous about picking him.

All three guys are ok, even Embiid, but i'm leaning towards Wiggins because the Hawks already have Bebe as a possible franchise center.

[theatlfan]

Personally, I don't see how you go against Embiid assuming he's healthy. Having two young bigs is a problem that I'm sure many would love to have. If Nogueira and Embiid prove out, then we could always trade one.

If questions persist about Embiid's back, then I would have a very hard call between Exum and Wiggins. I'd probably take Wiggins to be on the safe side, but I wouldn't discount Exum too early.

[atlantabbq99]

If their is a point system, i would have:

100.00 - Wiggins
99.999 - Parker
99.000 - Embiid

Again, im totally okay with Embiid, but the back issue, regardless how minor it is, is a concern, because just look at Howard, Bynum, Oden, Bogut, Gasol.... its just a simple fact that bigs get hurt and will miss time.

Second of all, everybody does drool over the dream that Embiid could be the next Hakeem, Shaq, or David Robinson, but in today's NBA with the new rules, its hard for teams to win without a slasher and just a center. Look at Lebron, George, Durant. in the new NBA, it makes it hard for guys like Howard, Bynum, and Gasol to control the game.

Duncan has been the only successful big to control the game today. If Budz thinks he can turn Embiid and Bebe into the new towers, then im all for it.

Wiggins could be given Teague's role of slashing to the basket when everything is spread out by 3pt shooters, but Parker's 3pt shooting would also work in the system.

[ATL Boy]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/23 ... ge-Horford

... It could happen

[hawkschop1]

Vlade Divac for Kobe Bryant worked out pretty well for the lakers...

[theatlfan]

If their is a point system, i would have:

100.00 - Wiggins
99.999 - Parker
99.000 - Embiid

Again, im totally okay with Embiid, but the back issue, regardless how minor it is, is a concern, because just look at Howard, Bynum, Oden, Bogut, Gasol.... its just a simple fact that bigs get hurt and will miss time.

Second of all, everybody does drool over the dream that Embiid could be the next Hakeem, Shaq, or David Robinson, but in today's NBA with the new rules, its hard for teams to win without a slasher and just a center. Look at Lebron, George, Durant. in the new NBA, it makes it hard for guys like Howard, Bynum, and Gasol to control the game.

Duncan has been the only successful big to control the game today. If Budz thinks he can turn Embiid and Bebe into the new towers, then im all for it.

Wiggins could be given Teague's role of slashing to the basket when everything is spread out by 3pt shooters, but Parker's 3pt shooting would also work in the system.

I guess I would have this different. I'd put Embiid in the 95 range while Exum and Wiggins would be around 92-93... Parker, for me, would come in around an 85. Parker just looks like the classic "score 20 give up 15" guy who needs to be hidden somewhat on D while the other 3 could be dominant in all phases at multiple positions. (Note that I would still have Parker as a clear cut #4 guy in this draft, so it's not a huge knock.)

I agree that having a slasher is a nice piece to have though, but let's not diminish the value of a dominant C. There's a reason that the DPotY is almost always a big. Someone like a Dwight Howard who can be a dominant presence as a rim protector doesn't need to have crazy offensive stats to be a huge factor. If there's anything that Ferry and Coach Bud have proven is that they can cobble together a pretty good O on a shoestring budget so if I'm investing in talent, then I'd want to secure that defensive C who isn't useless on O. Now - Sure, Nogueira could be that guy, but I'd prefer not to put all my eggs in one basket. If both turn out to be great, then there's no harm in dealing one down the line. It's not like one of them was a 2nd round pick and we could end up in an Asik situation - we have the rights to both for 5-8 years. If someone wants one, then they have to go through us.

[djjob23]

The #1 pick took a HUGE drop in value when Embiid got foot surgery. Centers with back and foot issues has not boded well in the aftermath (especially foot). Not to mention these issues are coming before he sees NBA competition.

Embiid is most likely out of #1 contention, which leaves Parker and Wiggins. Parker is an instant contributor on the offensive end, but also a one sided player. Is picking #1 in a deep draft worth a player that only plays offense? He will be a great player in the NBA as the NBA is full of offensive minded players, but with a limited ceiling. I see Parker's potential as a great All-Star at best.

Then you have Wiggins. All potential. A player that has the talent to be one of the greats, but many question if his head is in the game. Did not produce consistently at the college level. Still, a 2-way player with talent to potentially get to superstar level is a high risk, high reward type of pick.

Cleveland sees these issues and are now starting to look outside these 3 to see if there is better value for the #1 (Exum). The once can't miss top 3 superstar draft has turned into top 4 quality picks, each with their own risk.

Having said this, I believe a Horford & #15 trade for the #1 is equal to, if not better than, Utah's rumored offer of #5 & Favors. The #5 pick is a tier 2 pick and Favors' stats are a little inflated with being on a lack luster Utah team that no longer has that log jam in the front court with Jefferson and Milsap. Favors will be a great player, but with potential of a perennial All-Star). Horford has All-Star status at a highly valued position in the league that he's not even suited for. Horford's versatility is majorly underrated. Not to mention a class act on and off the court who only did what was best for his team. Including a tier 3 pick in a deep draft only sweetens the pot.

The Hawks are in a special position, but I would say, if you are a franchise that hasn't seen a superstar on your court since Dominique, you take the risk of the trade. The Hawks need some hype to get butts in the seats. This is the type of deal to do it.

[atlantabbq99]

Atlanta gets Embiid

Cleveland gets Horford and Thad Young

Philadelphia gets Wiggins

..... something along these lines, and maybe add Korver or Carroll?

[Hawk Eye]

Atlanta gets Embiid

Cleveland gets Horford and Thad Young

Philadelphia gets Wiggins

..... something along these lines, and maybe add Korver or Carroll?

I don't see it as way off..definitely wouldn't include Korver though. Not sure I would include DeMarre either actually.

[theatlfan]

Atlanta gets Embiid

Cleveland gets Horford and Thad Young

Philadelphia gets Wiggins

..... something along these lines, and maybe add Korver or Carroll?

i haven't (and won't ever) see Embiid's medicals, but assuming they're OK, I would be jumping on this - Korver is an easy add and I value him more than Carroll. I'd have to have a deal where I'm dealing Millsap but that is why Ferry gets the big bucks is to make deals like this work.

All in all, it's an interesting trade. I could see why fans of CLE and PHI would want more, but from an outsider's view, I could also see a GM who wound be willing to sit and say "We won't give you any more - now yes or no?" I'd guess most in their shoes would be pulling the trigger.

[Hawk Eye]

Atlanta gets Embiid

Cleveland gets Horford and Thad Young

Philadelphia gets Wiggins

..... something along these lines, and maybe add Korver or Carroll?

i haven't (and won't ever) see Embiid's medicals, but assuming they're OK, I would be jumping on this - Korver is an easy add and I value him more than Carroll. I'd have to have a deal where I'm dealing Millsap but that is why Ferry gets the big bucks is to make deals like this work.

All in all, it's an interesting trade. I could see why fans of CLE and PHI would want more, but from an outsider's view, I could also see a GM who wound be willing to sit and say "We won't give you any more - now yes or no?" I'd guess most in their shoes would be pulling the trigger.

Wonder how well this trade proposal would go on the T&T board..

[atlantabbq99]

Atlanta gets Embiid

Cleveland gets Horford and Thad Young

Philadelphia gets Wiggins

..... something along these lines, and maybe add Korver or Carroll?

i haven't (and won't ever) see Embiid's medicals, but assuming they're OK, I would be jumping on this - Korver is an easy add and I value him more than Carroll. I'd have to have a deal where I'm dealing Millsap but that is why Ferry gets the big bucks is to make deals like this work.

All in all, it's an interesting trade. I could see why fans of CLE and PHI would want more, but from an outsider's view, I could also see a GM who wound be willing to sit and say "We won't give you any more - now yes or no?" I'd guess most in their shoes would be pulling the trigger.

Wonder how well this trade proposal would go on the T&T board..

Its actually not a good trade because Thad makes 9 million a year. But the concept is there. Basically what im saying is that the Sixers would have to add value to a Horford package if they want to get Wiggins.