The Right time to make a BIG Move

[theatlfan]

Uh... guys...

While I would agree that Pau has some value and wouldn't mind him on the roster, under no conditions would I give up Teague or Millsap for him... probably not Bebe either. I understand that we would be getting some value out of the #7 pick (which < Millsap from the comps), but... yeah... that's a lot of value for a player who I'd guess wouldn't be returning to LAL regardless of our interest.

First thing that comes to mind is this past NFL draft. It was similarly stacked with talent and rumors were flying about possible moves. But the actual draft had only one big move into the top 5. I think teams realize the strength of their position in the draft and try to parley it into a big deal. The problem is their asking price for such a move is normally too high for prospective GMs to feel good about, so in the end nothing happens. Teams would rather stay put and take a solid prospect than comprise on what value they see in their pick.

1st, I agree with your predictions. I will add to those that if there is a trade made on D-Day, it'll be something under the radar and not something that is in the rumor mill for weeks.

I would caution against comparing the NBA draft to the NFL draft. They are just different beasts with different norms. Most trades in the NFL only include picks (no players) while most trades in the NBA are based around players and salary with the picks being used to make up the difference in value instead of the entire value. This may seem like a subtle difference, but it's so basic a building block that it makes a world once you add in that 30 teams will have 30 differing opinions on a single player...

[azuresou1]

Agreed with theatl.

Millsap is flat out better than Pau - Millsap scored more points on higher efficiency (PLEASE stop using FG%, at LEAST use eFG% while being a better overall defender, and while playing 14 additional games. Comparing Pau to Tim Duncan is an insult to Timmy D.

But even if you think that they're approximately equivalent, Teague and Bebe for the number 7 is ridiculous.

[PandaKidd]

I didnt say I would trade anything for him, isnt he a UFA?

If we signed Gasol, we would have to give up PM or AH. We are going to lose Millsap in a year anyway. so ...........

[Jamaaliver]

But even if you think that they're approximately equivalent, Teague and Bebe for the number 7 is ridiculous

Fair enough. remove Bebe from the proposal and add Mike Muscala.

Millsap is flat out better than Pau - Millsap scored more points on higher efficiency (PLEASE stop using FG%, at LEAST use eFG% while being a better overall defender, and while playing 14 additional games. Comparing Pau to Tim Duncan is an insult to Timmy D.

Again, I'd have to respectfully disagree. Pau's numbers have largely been consistent over the last decade plus. His efficiency numbers the past 2 years are largely skewed due to terrible coaching. (D'Antoni has no idea how to use a guy like PG.)

But Gasol has proven his mettle in the playoffs, Olympics, NBA Finals. He's been All-NBA, All Star. And 17/10 is pretty much his floor.

For instance, looking at Gasol in his last season before D'Antoni showed up (2011-2012), his efficiency numbers across the board are better than Millsap's best season (this year). Gasol has slightly better TS%, eFG%, FG%, PER, and Win Share.

Considering how consistent he has been over the last 13 years, I don't see any reason why Gasol's number wouldn't translate in a system such as ours.

Fair point on Gasol not comparing to Duncan, but let's remember that Gasol has been a top performer since the day he stepped foot in the NBA. He's also a likely Hall of Famer when taking into his consideration his International/NBA/Olympic achievements.

It's worth noting that Millsap's BEST season is comparable to an average season that Gasol has in a poor fitting scheme.

[Jamaaliver]

I didnt say I would trade anything for him, isnt he a UFA?

If we signed Gasol, we would have to give up PM or AH. We are going to lose Millsap in a year anyway. so ...........

This is my thinking, as well. Gasol and Millsap both put up almost identical production last year. But Gasol can play Center, is more proven in the playoffs. but with Millsap leaving anyway...it seriously doesn't matter.

[theatlfan]

I didnt say I would trade anything for him, isnt he a UFA?

If we signed Gasol, we would have to give up PM or AH. We are going to lose Millsap in a year anyway. so ...........

This is my thinking, as well. Gasol and Millsap both put up almost identical production last year. But Gasol can play Center, is more proven in the playoffs. but with Millsap leaving anyway...it seriously doesn't matter.

I'm sorry, I'm not sure I'm following here. Let's assume that a) Gasol is as productive as Millsap (not necessarily a slam dunk considering Gasol has missed 50+ games over the last 2 seasons - one of the signs of age) and b) Gasol will take whatever cap room we have to come here. Is the notion here really to say "well, we got Gasol so instead of trying to get some value for Millsap, we'll just ditch him here"? I don't know, but I'd have to guess we could get *something* for Millsap...

[Yungsta404]

the milsap for pau gasol trade is a wash trade. Both have 1 year of their contract left and neither will most likely will be here for the 2015-2016 season.

Gasol probably wouldnt want to stay here and sign less to be on a contender.

Pau Gasol will give priority to title contenders when he chooses team

http://www.latimes.com/sports/lakers/la ... story.html

milsap might be looking for long term contract that Ferry isnt willing to give and will leave.

[Jamaaliver]

I'm not sure I'm following here. Let's assume that a) Gasol is as productive as Millsap (not necessarily a slam dunk considering Gasol has missed 50+ games over the last 2 seasons - one of the signs of age) and b) Gasol will take whatever cap room we have to come here. Is the notion here really to say "well, we got Gasol so instead of trying to get some value for Millsap, we'll just ditch him here"? I don't know, but I'd have to guess we could get *something* for Millsap...

In my mind, getting Gasol in a Sign and trade for Millsap allows us to simply swap one guy for the other. It leaves our salary cap space intact for the most part. (Assuming Gasol agrees to a contract comparable to PM's.)

I'm thinking something like 3 years for $30 million with additional bonuses for number of games played, All-NBA selections, Conference Finals appearances. We'd still be players in this years Free Agency. (Especially if we trade Teague for a draft pick.)

My bigest issue is that, even as good as Paul and AL appear to be together, I still don't see them being strong enough to carry us deep into the playoffs. It makes no sense that for the last decade we've featured an undersized Center playing next to an undersized PF. It used to be because we were committed to Josh, now we feature an undersized front court because....well, I'm honestly not sure. I don't think there are many front courts in the East with the size to defend both Horford and Gasol in a 7-game series.

[azuresou1]

What's the point of leaving salary cap space intact if we're not going to be adding anyone of significance with that money? I can't see any premier FAs wanting to play with us after we sign and trade a prime Millsap for a broken down Pau.

3/30 for a 34 year old Pau Gasol is a TERRIBLE contract. Over the past 3 seasons he's missed 72 games - almost 30% of all games. Unlike Al, they haven't been freak injuries, but rather wear-and-tear injuries. Why the hell would you want to be signing on for 37 year old Pau? Do you know how limited the list of 37 year old centers who have produced is?

Kareem
Duncan
David Robinson
Hakeem
Robert Parish

That's the whole list. Do you think Pau is even remotely close to that level that we should be signing him to third-star type money?

[azuresou1]

Heck, even if you believe Pau can keep producing and you feel you need to acquire him (which I clearly don't), it'd still be bad management to trade Millsap for S&T Pau. Why not instead offer to S&T Millsap for someone actually good, like Melo? And then you can then sign Pau as a free agent for the 2/16 or whatever he'd actually be looking for on the market.

Sorry if it sounds pissy, but I would literally throw my monitor if I read that we traded Millsap for S&T Pau. That's how bad I think this proposal is.

[Jamaaliver]

3/30 for a 34 year old Pau Gasol is a TERRIBLE contract. Over the past 3 seasons he's missed 72 games - almost 30% of all games. Unlike Al, they haven't been freak injuries, but rather wear-and-tear injuries. Why the hell would you want to be signing on for 37 year old Pau? Do you know how limited the list of 37 year old centers who have produced is?

If it's a three year contract, Gasol wouldn't be on the roster at age 37.

What's the point of leaving salary cap space intact if we're not going to be adding anyone of significance with that money? I can't see any premier FAs wanting to play with us after we sign and trade a prime Millsap for a broken down Pau.

Just because we have cap space doesn't require us to spend it immediately. This plan leaves us with a capable Center to play next to AL, a lottery pick in a loaded draft and cap space for the Free Agent bonanza of 2015.

I guess I just value a proven All-NBA player with Championship experience (Pau) more than I do a guy who once made an all-star team and is on his way out the door anyway (Millsap).

[Jamaaliver]

Heck, even if you believe Pau can keep producing and you feel you need to acquire him (which I clearly don't), it'd still be bad management to trade Millsap for S&T Pau. Why not instead offer to S&T Millsap for someone actually good, like Melo? And then you can then sign Pau as a free agent for the 2/16 or whatever he'd actually be looking for on the market.

Sorry if it sounds pissy, but I would literally throw my monitor if I read that we traded Millsap for S&T Pau. That's how bad I think this proposal is.

I respect your opinion. But I have 0 desire to bring in melo. I don't believe his skill set fits our needs, his attitude fits our culture. I'd much rather bring in a future Hall of Famer who has won at every level of basketball he's ever played. And for what it's worth, Gasol is roughly the same age Garnett was when he led Boston to two NBA Finals in three years. Gasol is exactly the same age as Shaq was when he was traded from LA and led MIAMI to their first NBA Championship.

[ATLHawksfan21]

Heck, even if you believe Pau can keep producing and you feel you need to acquire him (which I clearly don't), it'd still be bad management to trade Millsap for S&T Pau. Why not instead offer to S&T Millsap for someone actually good, like Melo? And then you can then sign Pau as a free agent for the 2/16 or whatever he'd actually be looking for on the market.

Sorry if it sounds pissy, but I would literally throw my monitor if I read that we traded Millsap for S&T Pau. That's how bad I think this proposal is.

I respect your opinion. But I have 0 desire to bring in melo. I don't believe his skill set fits our needs, his attitude fits our culture. I'd much rather bring in a future Hall of Famer who has won at every level of basketball he's ever played. And for what it's worth, Gasol is roughly the same age Garnett was when he led Boston to two NBA Finals in three years. Gasol is exactly the same age as Shaq was when he was traded from LA and led MIAMI to their first NBA Championship.

Won at every level of basketball he ever played? How is Melo any different?

Melo led a team to a National title as a true freshmen. He was one of the best players on the last U.S. Olympic gold medal team. He has been in the playoffs every year of his NBA career except this past season. He has actually won a series in the playoffs and led his team to a WCF. Gasol has never won a series in the playoffs without Kobe Bryant leading the way.

I like how we look at per minute statistics and just completely throw out games played like it's not important. Gasol has had serious issues staying healthy and I don't see why any one would assume that this is likely to change as he gets older. The whole reason why some of you are screaming for Horford to be moved to PF is for our team to stay healthy more often. What good does it do if we move Horford to PF and then end up with a Center who misses a large portion of the season? Guess who would be playing Center when, not if but when, Gasol goes down. That's right, Horford would be and he wouldn't have an all-star caliber PF to play along side of him.

This line is straight comedy by the way.

"I don't believe his skill set fits our needs"

[ATLHawksfan21]

Heck, even if you believe Pau can keep producing and you feel you need to acquire him (which I clearly don't), it'd still be bad management to trade Millsap for S&T Pau. Why not instead offer to S&T Millsap for someone actually good, like Melo? And then you can then sign Pau as a free agent for the 2/16 or whatever he'd actually be looking for on the market.

Sorry if it sounds pissy, but I would literally throw my monitor if I read that we traded Millsap for S&T Pau. That's how bad I think this proposal is.

Preach on Azu!

[azuresou1]

Jamaal I don't think your rationale is valid, or at least not how you're presenting it.

Pau is a future Hall of Famer... and Carmelo isn't? Carmelo has a better chance of making the Hall of Fame than Pau does.

Pau's won at every level? What did he do as the best player on Memphis, before he joined a Top 2 guy in Kobe Bryant, as well as an excellent third option in Lamar Odom OR Andrew Bynum? You realize in 6 full seasons with Memphis, they never won a single playoff game? That's a 'winner' to you?

First you compare Pau to Tim Duncan, and now you compare him to KG and Shaq. Can you stop with these comparisons? Pau MIGHT be in the Top 75 players of all time. Those other guys are all within the Top 15. Here's how ridiculous those comparisons are:

KG, 30 (when he ACTUALLY got traded): 22/13, 1.7 blocks, .546 TS%, Top 5 defender, got to play with Ray Allen and Paul Pierce
Shaq, 31 (when he ACTUALLY got traded): 22/12, 2.5 blocks, .578 TS%, All-NBA 1st, above-average defender, got to play with Dwyane Wade
Duncan, 33: 18/10, 1.5 blocks, .560 TS%, Top 5 defender, played with Tony Parker and Manu
Pau Gasol, 33: 17/10, 1.5 blocks, .522 TS%, below-average defender, will get to play with Al Horford and Kyle Korver

Pau's season would be closest to Duncan's... except Duncan was vastly more efficient and remained one of the best defenders in the league.

Why you would choose that over a 29 year old who just averaged 27/8/3 on .561 TS% and was visibly the only player who gave a **** last season on the Knicks who happens to fit a team need (superstar level scoring) is beyond me.

[azuresou1]

All things considered (age, contract, what it would take to sign them), I'd rather sign Jordan Hill as a stopgap center for 1/4 and keep Millsap than S&T Millsap for 3/30 Pau.

[D21]

I don't think there are many front courts in the East with the size to defend both Horford and Gasol in a 7-game series.

What I like is that Pau has very IQ, and it pays when you have several C/PF with good IQ. just look at SAS, part of their success against OKC was the plays or extra-pass of Duncan and Diaw.
With Pau and Al, you have two big guys who know how to play and make a good pass, and both good at FT%, which makes opponent pays for their fouls.

Now, if ATL want to be a contender, a simple Millsap/Gasol swap won't change a lot, because Millsap is also a very good player. We get a bit of height, make Al plays more at PF, but the ideal would be to add Pau without loosing Millsap, or be sure to get other guy(s) with trades or cap room.

All things considered (age, contract, what it would take to sign them), I'd rather sign Jordan Hill as a stopgap center for 1/4 and keep Millsap than S&T Millsap for 3/30 Pau.

There's something I don't understand here : we can't keep Millsap for anoher year then make a sign-&-trade for Pau, because Millsap is FA in 2015 while Pau is in 2014, unless you wanted to say "keep during the draft then trade him this summer for Pau" ?

[azuresou1]

Sorry, I meant trade Millsap for S&T Pau.

My hatred for that idea makes my brain discombobulate my words.

[PandaKidd]

Who trades anyone?

Isnt Pau an outright UFA? Why would we have to give up anything to get him?

I would just make a reasonable offer to him, I believe he hates being on that team with that management. I think he fits well in the system we have, and he could flourish.

[Jamaaliver]

Jamaal I don't think your rationale is valid, or at least not how you're presenting it.

Pau is a future Hall of Famer... and Carmelo isn't? Carmelo has a better chance of making the Hall of Fame than Pau does.

Again, I simply disagree. I don't see the Spurs ever splurging heavily on a guy like Carmelo. I see them salvaging Boris Diaws and Danny Greens...guys who play a SAS style of play. In all honesty, do you think the Spurs would ever chase Carmelo to play in their system? Have Pop's Spurs EVER featured a player like a Carmelo?

I see Pau as a guy who showed up on an expansion team and elevated that franchise from Day One. Before him, they'd never even had a winning record. They were essentially still that same expansion team with no structure or credibility. It's a little unfair to throw an entire franchise's failures at Gasol when the team had never even won 24 games in a season. By his 3rd season they had doubled that win total and made the playoffs for the 1st time ever.

It's clear we're not going to persuade each other on this issue, right now. Mind if we stick a pin in it and come back to it next playoffs? I have a sneaky suspicion SAS might actually tab Gasol to replace Duncan if TD indeed retires after this season. At this point in their careers, they're very similar in style, skill, production.

Also, I don't see a Horford/Millsap pairing being much to deal with in the playoffs. Especially if the opposing team has a legit Center. This team tops out in the 2nd round as currently constructed, which is why I'm advocating a BIG move this summer.

With Horford and Millsap quickly approaching Free Agency, the clock is ticking. Letting them walk away for nothing like we did with Josh is unacceptable. Especially if the potential is there to move them for a #1 draft pick and perhap a 'Once in a Lifetime' player.

I told you guys for years, Josh was not irreplaceable. The same goes for Millsap.