The Future of the Miami HEAT

[Eric Reid]

The answer to the question everybody wants to know, "Is LeBron leaving Miami?" lies in the hands Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, and Udonis Haslem.

Everybody is looking at this past series against the Spurs and immediately jumping to the conclusion that LeBron is leaving Miami because their supporting cast isn't good enough to win a title, and rightfully so. However, the one thing everybody is overlooking is that the HEAT, more specifically Wade, Bosh, and Haslem, effectively dictate whether LeBron leaves Miami or not.

Everything I've read and heard over the past four years has given me the impression that LeBron wants to stay in Miami. He and his family love it here. However, the one thing that trumps LeBron's desire to stay in Miami is his desire to win championships, something I think we can all agree that he will not be able to accomplish with the roster as it is currently assembled.

Taking a look at next year's roster, Norris Cole is the only player with a guaranteed contract on the books in the amount of $2M. After that, Miami has five players with player-options in Chris Andersen, Udonis Haslem, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, and of course, LeBron James.

Andersen's player-option is for $1.5M, which is a very reasonable contract, and I'm assuming that he'll pick up his option and be with Miami again next year.

Moving on to Haslem, he has player-option for $4.6M, which is obviously way more than he's worth. Haslem has played his entire career with Miami and has taken less money twice to remain with the HEAT. He's from Miami and one day his number will be retired and hanging in the rafters alongside Zo and Hardaway. Haslem is going to be a HEAT for life and going to be on Arison's payroll for the rest of his life, just like Zo. I anticipate Haslem opting-out of his contract and taking significantly less money, possibly even a veteran minimum contract to remain in Miami and to create cap space for other free agents to sign here. While you may think that Haslem will not do that, remember that he's from Miami, took less money two other times to remain in Miami, and also remember he has seen loyalty to the HEAT be rewarded by Arison keeping Zo on the payroll for the rest of his life. Giving up $4M for one year isn't that big of a sacrifice when you know you'll be taken care of financially for the rest of your life.

Dwyane Wade, in my opinion, will play the biggest role in LeBron's decision to resign with Miami or sign elsewhere. Wade has a $20M player-option next year and it's quite apparent to anyone who watched the Finals that Wade is a shell of his former self. Many people have stated that there is no way Wade does not opt-in to his contract and collect the $20M that he will be owed. However, if Wade does not take less, the HEAT will be financially strapped, which will ultimately lead to Riley not being able to assemble a championship caliber team should LeBron resign. If Wade were to opt-in, he would effectively be packing LeBron's bags and waving goodbye to him as a teammate in Miami, and he knows that. Wade wants to win championships and he knows that he needs keep playing with LeBron to give him the best chance of making that happen. If Wade opts-in and takes the $20M, he would basically be sabotaging himself at any chance of ever winning another championship. A team led by Wade, who can only play about 55 games per year, most likely wouldn't even make the playoffs in the East. Wade doesn't want to end his career like that. Wade is beloved in Miami and he has preached sacrifice since day one of the big three era. That's why I believe Wade will opt-out of his contract and take less money to keep LeBron in Miami. And I'm talking significantly less money. Like $7-10M per year. Wade has made a ton of money over his NBA career both on and off the court. Additionally, just like Zo, Arison will keep Wade on the payroll for the rest of his life.

Chris Bosh publicly stated on the Dan Le Batard show that he will be playing in Miami next season and that he's willing to opt-out and take less money to do it. While I'm confident Bosh was sincere with what he said, I don't know how much less he'd be willing to take. Unlike Wade, Bosh is still capable of playing at a pretty high level, despite being resigned to being the third option in Miami. I'm hopeful Bosh would be willing to take around $12M per year, but we'll see how much less he's willing to take.

As you can see, Haslem, Wade, and Bosh all have a decision to make. If they all take less money and LeBron opts-out and then resigns at $18M per year, that will give them approximately $45M on the books next year, which will allow them to be very aggressive in their pursuit of free agents, such as Lowry, Melo, etc. That's why I truly believe that LeBron's decision really hinges upon the decisions of Haslem, Bosh, and especially Wade. If Haslem, Bosh, and Wade sacrifice money to allow Riley to bring in free agents to help LeBron, he'll be back. If not, he's a goner. It will be very interesting to see how this all plays out, but personally, I believe that they will all be returning to South Beach next season and give Riley the cap space he needs to bring in some reinforcements.

[GooseDiddy]

So, the question is, who would Miami try to bring in, and would Bosh/Wade/Haslem/Free agents be a more attractive roster then Irving/Varejao/Thompson/Zeller/Waiters/1st overall pick.

[Dupas]

So, the question is, who would Miami try to bring in, and would Bosh/Wade/Haslem/Free agents be a more attractive roster then Irving/Varejao/Thompson/Zeller/Waiters/1st overall pick.

lol.

[shanedude]

I pray Wade opts out and is open to a 4 year-50 million dollar contract. CB is worth 15M per year IMO.

[An0nym1ty]

and would Bosh/Wade/Haslem/Free agents be a more attractive roster then Irving/Varejao/Thompson/Zeller/Waiters/1st overall pick.

Yes. One has a chokehold on the Eastern Conference. The other has a chokehold on the number one overall pick.

Also, the LeBron to Cleveland thing is as much an ESPN-created fantasy as Tim Tebow's NFL career. Aside from the fact that Miami is still a better situation and a better city to live in, from a pure human being point of view, if you were LeBron James would you ever want to play for Dan Gilbert or the Cleveland fans again after the way they responded to his leaving back in 2010? Even if you can make the argument that it was justified (which at the degree they turned it up to, no it wasn't), to be treated like the ultimate force of evil in your own home town, after taking them from a perennial lottery loser to a consistent winner literally all by yourself? That sort of **** still probably sticks with a person.

[Tuff Gong]

So, the question is, who would Miami try to bring in, and would Bosh/Wade/Haslem/Free agents be a more attractive roster then Irving/Varejao/Thompson/Zeller/Waiters/1st overall pick.

You have got to be kidding me.

[R-DAWG]

I think the main question for the Miami Heat is can they redesign their offense to put Bosh in a position where he can be the 2nd scorer, getting 15-18 shots per game from post ups, pick and rolls and other high efficiency shots. They mostly use him as a 3 point shooter but if they are paying him big money and have Wade on the books as well they need him to step up. If he can't do it they need to let him go.

[DefenseWins]

Looks like Birdman opted out already which was quick

Dude wants more money, he might get it somewhere else

He is just testing the market but we will see if someone pays him more

I wouldn't be surprised

[contract]

The answer to the question everybody wants to know, "Is LeBron leaving Miami?" lies in the hands Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, and Udonis Haslem.

The answer to the question everybody wants to know, "Is LeBron leaving Miami?" lies in the hands of Lebron James, and his hands alone. He's making more money than anyone in the NBA on and off the court and would be even if he played for the veteran minimum. He alone will decide what it's worth to him to play for the Miami Heat and continue winning.

If he chooses to be disloyal and greedy, it's on him. Again.

[gobraves101905]

The Spurs big 3 made 30 million. Are the Heat stars willing to sacrifice that much money? It will be a huge question. They have all made 125 million in their careers on the court. LBJ and CB could both play another 10 years and make another 100 mil. Time is now to WIN. There will be more money down the road.

[GooseDiddy]

and would Bosh/Wade/Haslem/Free agents be a more attractive roster then Irving/Varejao/Thompson/Zeller/Waiters/1st overall pick.

Yes. One has a chokehold on the Eastern Conference. The other has a chokehold on the number one overall pick.

So without considering salary you would decline an offer of Irving, Varejao, and the #1 pick for Wade, Bosh, and Haslem this summer?



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[QUIZ]

and would Bosh/Wade/Haslem/Free agents be a more attractive roster then Irving/Varejao/Thompson/Zeller/Waiters/1st overall pick.

Yes. One has a chokehold on the Eastern Conference. The other has a chokehold on the number one overall pick.

So without considering salary you would decline an offer of Irving, Varejao, and the #1 pick for Wade, Bosh, and Haslem this summer?



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1. Bosh is better than both of them.
2. Irving has missed almost as many games as Wade in the last 3 seasons. (Wade has missed only 9 more games over the course of 3 years)
3. Are you completely ignoring Pat Riley and Micky Arison? They've proven that they can put together a winning product. What have the Cavs proven? That they can win the number 1 overall pick multiple times. lol

[DrKnick]

No, Bron's not leaving. Wait til next year...

[An0nym1ty]

So without considering salary you would decline an offer of Irving, Varejao, and the #1 pick for Wade, Bosh, and Haslem this summer?

The Cavs have proven, in LeBron's time away, that nothing has changed. They got Kyrie, yeah, but not even they could have screwed that up. Just this past offseason, however, they blew another number one on Anthony Bennett and made Andrew Bynum their big offseason acquisition. What might seem like a moderately attractive roster (albeit without anything to suggest that Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters are any more than the two best players on one of the league's worst teams year in and year out**) still has the haunting specter of the same front office incompetence that drove LeBron to turn away from his own hometown and flee to Miami in the first place.

But all of that is moot, anyways, because in all likelihood, Dan Gilbert blew any chance the Cavs might have ever had of getting LeBron back the day he put out that asinine letter following The Decision.

**Keep this in mind: In the seasons prior to the formation of the Big 3, both Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh proved that they alone could carry rosters full of dead weight to the postseason. Not contenders, by any means, but still impressive when you consider that the likes of Michael Beasley, past-his-prime Jermaine O'Neal, Andrea Bargnani, and TJ Ford were among their main helpers. That's what made the idea of all three of them teaming up to see what heights they could achieve with actual help so intriguing in the first place.

[gom]

Alright, since we’re supposed to be GMing and not all GMing is pretty let’s assume for a moment this worst-case scenario for our team.

(1) Wade opts in
(2) Chris Bosh opts in
(3) LeBron James opts out and decides he wants to play for LA Clippers with Chris Paul and backed by Micro$oft’s former CEO, Steve Ballmer.
(4) Haslem opts in

What a disaster! No, wait. We can figure this out.

The Clippers have about $72M committed to salaries so they are already over the cap. LeBron could sign for the Clippers’ midlevel exception, but that seems like nonsense to me. If LeBron is moving to Los Angeles to work for Ballmer, he’s going to get paid. So what can be done?

It is pretty clear that if LeBron wants to move on, we can’t keep him so Miami should try to find some way to make him happy and put us in a better position. There has to be a sign-and-trade to get this done and Miami can just say “no” so the Clippers have to make it work. Also, in terms of salary cap, we need to take salary from the Clippers too.

When Larry Coon raised this on espn insider, he suggested sending Blake Griffin and adding Reggie Bullock (their 2013 pick) and their 2014 pick. I don’t really think that’s nearly enough (I wouldn’t expect any dissent) here, even though Blake Griffin’s contract goes out a lot longer than LeBron’s would. We could build our team around him after Wade and Bosh exit.

So, perhaps something like this instead:

LAC Out: Blake Griffin, JJ Redick, 2014 1st Round Draft Pick, Darren Collison (sign and trade), 2017 1st Round Pick
MIA Out: LeBron James (Sign & Trade), Chris Andersen (Sign & Trade), Norris Cole
TOR Out: Terrence Ross, 2014 Toronto Pick (#20), 2017 first round pick

MIA In: Blake Griffin, 2014 Clippers Draft Pick (#28), Darren Collison, Terrence Ross, Toronto 1st Round 2014 Draft Pick (#20), Toronto 2017 first round pick
TOR In: Chris Andersen, JJ Redick, Clippers 2017 first round pick
LAC In: LeBron James, Norris Cole

Why? Good question.

LeBron James immediately makes the Clippers one of the strongest teams in the league, if not THE strongest. It’s a good move for LeBron. Also, he recently said that he and his family enjoy Los Angeles. Sound familiar?

If LeBron is going, the Heat need to rebuild around a key player. Blake Griffin is a great choice. He is 25 and has a long term contract. He has a PER of 22+ for the last 3 years with an average of over 2500 minutes played for the last 4 years. In short, he is healthy and productive. He’s also a 24 ppg shooter last year and he’s coming into his prime.

As an unrestricted Free Agent, Chris Andersen can be signed and traded to a team of his choice. The Raptors need a shot blocker and rim protector and the Birdman (despite his age) is one of the best in the business. It’s good for the Birdman too because he can get paid more in Toronto than in Miami. He could be signed, for example, for $3M instead of the $1.5M he’s been making.

Toronto’s Terrence Ross is a good prospect that is on a rookie contract and can play SG, a problem place for Miami. He’s put up some impressive numbers in some games (notably against the Clippers). JJ Redick along with rights to Chris Andersen are plenty of compensation. If Toronto waited to sign Chris, they would have to compete with many teams (including of course Miami).

Darren Collison is already likely exiting the Clippers. Let’s suppose he can be signed for $6M with guaranteed 4.5% increase (Bird) for 3 years and a player option for 1 year. Darren is 26 and he’s being paid just under $2M so $6M is a good increase in salary. He might, however, be able to get more, but that is as much the Heat could pay. The Clippers also won’t have any cap space (which is why I sent Norris Cole there).

JJ Redick is a solid SG, but he plays behind Jamal Crawford on the Clippers. He can immediately contribute to the Raptors, thus allowing Ross to be traded. The draft pick at #20 is important too for Miami. Note Redick could have been traded to Miami, but he would cause luxury tax blow-outs (because Bosh & Wade salaries are so high), so this is another way to get there. He has 3 years to go on his contract.

Norris Cole is a backup PG on the Clippers who are championship bound. He gives up one great team for another with about the same role.

———

The Clippers are a monster team now and because they get rid of Griffin and Redick, they should have enough money to pay LeBron max (or close enough).

Toronto is stronger with JJ Redick and Andersen.

So far, for Miami, of course it is devastating, but they are putting their best foot forward. This is what they have accomplished.

Let’s assume we resign Rashard Lewis, Greg Oden, and Michael Beasley.
We also have James Ennis rejoining the group and of course a contract with Justin Hamilton until the end of next season.

PG: Darren Collison
SG: Dwyane Wade, Ray Allen, Terrence Ross
SF: Blake Griffin, James Ennis
PF: Rashard Lewis, Michael Beasley, Udonis Haslem
C: Chris Bosh, Greg Oden, Justin Hamilton

Not very inspiring, right? Miami has 4 draft picks: #20, #26, #28, and #54. It might be possible to trade with Memphis the #28 and #54 for #22, since we don’t need 5 rookies (4 drafts and James Ennis). It’s probably a good deal for Memphis since they don’t give up much and pick up a free 2nd.

So, let’s say we work that out to pick at #20, #22, and #26. My targets would be:

Shabazz Napier (PG from UCONN)
Kyle Anderson (PG/SG/SF/PF from UCLA)
and a SG like Rodney Hood or PJ Hairston, a good defensive SF like KJ McDaniels or a PF like Clint Capela (from Switzerland).
Hood probably wouldn’t be available. We are stronger at SF, but have more numbers at PF (even if they aren’t as effective). I’m going to take Clint Capela and stash him in Europe for a year. I think he’s got a great chance to help us even this year off the bench but we have cap issues (as you will see) and letting him grow for almost no cost is a good option.

So now something like this:

PG: Darren Collison, Shabazz Napier
SG: Dwyane Wade, Ray Allen, Terrence Ross
SF: Blake Griffin, James Ennis
PF: Rashard Lewis, Michael Beasley, Kyle Anderson, Udonis Haslem
C: Chris Bosh, Greg Oden, Justin Hamilton

Rights to Clint Capela (PF). Rights to 2017 Toronto 1st round pick (I swapped Toronto and Clippers picks because the Clippers pick should be #30 if LeBron is there). This helps reduce the pain of losing our earlier draft picks in the trade with Cleveland.

How’s the cap? Let’s assume the following salaries (for 2014-5):

Ray Allen ($3,374,357)
Michael Beasley ($1,145,685)
Chris Bosh ($20,590,000)
Justin Hamilton ($816,482)
Udonis Haslem ($4,620,000)
Rashard Lewis ($1,448,490)
Greg Oden ($1,145,685)
Dwyane Wade ($20,164,000)
Blake Griffin ($17,674,612)
Darren Collison ($6,000,000)
James Ennis ($507,336)
Kyle Anderson (#26) ($1,149,720)
Shabazz Napier (#22) ($1,344,120)
Terrence Ross ($2,793,960)

According to Larry Coon the luxury tax threshold should be around $81M which puts the cap at $70,500,000.
According to my calculations, we are $1,800,000 above the luxury tax threshold. Naturally, we could get Haslem paid over 2 years and stay under the threshold, but he would need some incentive (maybe if we paid $2.5M per year?)

Incidentally, after 2015-6, assuming Allen, Lewis, and Haslem are not resigned, we will be almost $4M below the luxury tax cap. The year after, of course, we will have a LOT more flexibility.

On our roster, we have 14 players and wouldn’t expect Udonis Haslem to play much at all. We have, in fact, a major roster issue at PF and PG is better than with Chalmers but not much. We have, however, made a good transition to a younger team. Players like Kyle Anderson, James Ennis, Terrence Ross, Justin Hamilton, and Shabazz Napier should get minutes during the regular season. They have experienced players like Wade, Griffin, Lewis, Bosh, Allen, and Haslem to make their transition to the NBA smoother.

Plus Clint Capela can come over in 2015-2016 and be a good solution to the front court. Kyle Anderson can play everywhere but center, so he will find space.

I think this team is good enough to get into the playoffs in the East. We are strong enough to compete. We couldn’t beat the Clippers of course or the Rockets or the Spurs.

It is a team with potential though. and it will get us past the financial squeeze caused by the Big 2/3 contracts.

Anyway, I don't want to see LeBron leave either. He is irreplaceable. Let's suppose though that he is going. How bad is this plan?

[Darkstar]

While anything is possible I cannot believe he'd go back to Cleveland, that owner, and those fans. I seriously doubt he leaves, but if he does it sure as heck isn't going to be to go back to that hellhole of an organization or a town that vilified him more than any other group.

I think Lebron is thinking long term with that Carmelo talk. Why would you do that if you had no plans to stay? We're going to need to replace Wade in a few years it seems when he's no longer able to play, which seems to be coming sooner than anyone Heat related would like I believe.

[gom]

Great chance he goes to Clippers though if he is moving on.

[HEATVols865]

This Clippers idea only happens with a S&T...Riley would not do a S&T unless it's for Blake.
So if Bron wants to go to the Clippers, the Heat is in control.


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[Profound23]

The Clippers gut their team for Lebron, Toronto trades a young piece and two draft picks for two white guys?

[contract]

I'm not even remotely interested in building a team around Blake Griffin.