Can Nikola Jokic really shoot 3?

[Notanoob]

before april, He made 13of 65 3P. terrible, right?

but why The coach dont stop this 19yrs kid?

you tell me, why??

Maybe they needed him to space the floor, so they had him shoot 3's anyways?

Maybe the coach was trying to build up his confidence by letting him continue to shoot?

Maybe the coach thinks that he can shoot but he actually can't, and just happend to get hot at the end of the year?

Plenty of bad shooters, even young guys, continue to take jump shots even when they aren't good shooters, some under the direction of their coach, others on their own volition. I'm not going to assume that he can shoot because a coach didn't stop him from shooting, coaches are wrong and make mistakes all the time, even good ones.

If you make splits like this, you get results that say Jabari Parker can't shoot at all, but Aaron Gordon can, which is simply false. Don't do it.

[Notanoob]

The fact is we dont have huge info, right?

We have a lot more than a 14 game sample size, so no reason not to use it.

another sample is THanasis, is he a bad shooter? maybe.
but he made 48% Corner 3 last 20 games. He is very good at the corner

Where did you get that number?

[20110913]

The fact is we dont have huge info, right?

We have a lot more than a 14 game sample size, so no reason not to use it.

another sample is THanasis, is he a bad shooter? maybe.
but he made 48% Corner 3 last 20 games. He is very good at the corner

Where did you get that number?

nbdl site, lol

if you want to see the future, you have to read at different way

[20110913]

before april, He made 13of 65 3P. terrible, right?

but why The coach dont stop this 19yrs kid?

you tell me, why??

Maybe they needed him to space the floor, so they had him shoot 3's anyways?

Maybe the coach was trying to build up his confidence by letting him continue to shoot?

Maybe the coach thinks that he can shoot but he actually can't, and just happend to get hot at the end of the year?

Plenty of bad shooters, even young guys, continue to take jump shots even when they aren't good shooters, some under the direction of their coach, others on their own volition. I'm not going to assume that he can shoot because a coach didn't stop him from shooting, coaches are wrong and make mistakes all the time, even good ones.

If you make splits like this, you get results that say Jabari Parker can't shoot at all, but Aaron Gordon can, which is simply false. Don't do it.

but the coach will never allow his 3PTA/FGA over 30% right?














last14 his 3PTA/FGA is












41%

[pad300]

this guy is slow as hell and looks like he can't even jump rope. he moves like a taller kyle wiltjer.

but he made 63.8% 2FG% ASLL SEASON , 48% 3FG% FOR last 14 games

thats cool. he's still a really tall slug. kid also looks like he's never lifted a weight his entire life. he's got a soft build.

That's potentially repairable. Look at what happened with Marc Gasol - fat kid to top 5 NBA center...and Gasol was exposed to NBA physical training later in life (23 vs 19 IIRC).

Jokic does appear to get the game: 4 Asst/40 and a 1.6 A/TO ratio says he can pass quite well for a big. (Saric is also at 4 A/40, and he puts up an A/TO ratio of 1). Another example is his O-boards - 3.4 per 40 - which is quite decent for a guy who's taking a 1/3 of his shots from 3. Given he's not doing it on athletic gifts, he's got a good feel for the game...

[20110913]

how about 3PTA/FGA for Bosh and Vonleh
15%

why Vonleh didnt shoot more? good question

you tell me the answer

[ManualRam]

but he made 63.8% 2FG% ASLL SEASON , 48% 3FG% FOR last 14 games

thats cool. he's still a really tall slug. kid also looks like he's never lifted a weight his entire life. he's got a soft build.

That's potentially repairable. Look at what happened with Marc Gasol - fat kid to top 5 NBA center...and Gasol was exposed to NBA physical training later in life (23 vs 19 IIRC).

Jokic does appear to get the game: 4 Asst/40 and a 1.6 A/TO ratio says he can pass quite well for a big. (Saric is also at 4 A/40, and he puts up an A/TO ratio of 1). Another example is his O-boards - 3.4 per 40 - which is quite decent for a guy who's taking a 1/3 of his shots from 3. Given he's not doing it on athletic gifts, he's got a good feel for the game...

maybe.
he looks like a euro lifer to me.

[Notanoob]

The fact is we dont have huge info, right?

We have a lot more than a 14 game sample size, so no reason not to use it.

another sample is THanasis, is he a bad shooter? maybe.
but he made 48% Corner 3 last 20 games. He is very good at the corner

Where did you get that number?

nbdl site, lol

if you want to see the future, you have to read at different way

Oh, there? I was hoping someone had broken it down for all domestic players (including college guys), not just the D-League data. Oh well.

I'm getting 50% from corner 3's, not 48% on just 32 attempts. That's encouraging, but too small of a sample size to take as a solid indication of anything. Like I said, could just be a hot streak.

how about 3PTA/FGA for Bosh and Vonleh
15%

why Vonleh didnt shoot more? good question

you tell me the answer

I don't know why Vonleh didn't shoot more 3's, maybe his coach wanted him to play inside more instead of outside. This doesn't really help your argument any.

[Notanoob]

but the coach will never allow his 3PTA/FGA over 30% right?
last14 his 3PTA/FGA is 41%

Sure he would, coaches will regularly ride the hot hand. If he was indeed hot from 3, then the coach would probably encourage him to take more 3s, not less.

[Notanoob]

thats cool. he's still a really tall slug. kid also looks like he's never lifted a weight his entire life. he's got a soft build.

That's potentially repairable. Look at what happened with Marc Gasol - fat kid to top 5 NBA center...and Gasol was exposed to NBA physical training later in life (23 vs 19 IIRC).

Jokic does appear to get the game: 4 Asst/40 and a 1.6 A/TO ratio says he can pass quite well for a big. (Saric is also at 4 A/40, and he puts up an A/TO ratio of 1). Another example is his O-boards - 3.4 per 40 - which is quite decent for a guy who's taking a 1/3 of his shots from 3. Given he's not doing it on athletic gifts, he's got a good feel for the game...

maybe.
he looks like a euro lifer to me.

I don't know man, some of those numbers are pretty good, aside from my endless argument with 20110913 about his 2P% and 3P%. Great post game, excellent passer with great assist numbers for a big man on a team that already has a stud PG (Micic), solid steals and blocks numbers, the rebounding numbers look solid for a guy shooting jumpers...If he works on his body and gets a bit more mobile, he could turn out pretty well.

[20110913]

but the coach will never allow his 3PTA/FGA over 30% right?
last14 his 3PTA/FGA is 41%

Sure he would, coaches will regularly ride the hot hand. If he was indeed hot from 3, then the coach would probably encourage him to take more 3s, not less.

how you explain his 3PTA/FGA is 15 % higher than Vonleh before last14? even his 3FG% is 28% lower than Vonleh at that time.

[Notanoob]

but the coach will never allow his 3PTA/FGA over 30% right?
last14 his 3PTA/FGA is 41%

Sure he would, coaches will regularly ride the hot hand. If he was indeed hot from 3, then the coach would probably encourage him to take more 3s, not less.

how you explain his 3PTA?FGA is 10 % higher than Vonleh? even his 3FG% is 28% lower than Vonleh.

I'm sure you're trying to get me to say that the difference is because Jokic can shoot and Vonleh can't, but there are other reasonable possibilities, and I'm going to go with any of them.

Indiana this year lacked quality big men outside of Vonleh. They needed him to be their inside presence, so they weren't going to have him hanging out by the perimeter. Or he can't shoot, or their coach is an idiot (he reputation isn't great). He averaged nearly two 3PA a game starting with the 14th game of the season, so it's entirely possible that the coach did have him start shooting more.

Mega Vizura on the other hand, had plenty of big men by comparison. Since the 3 other top bigmen on their roster all shot 3's, I presume that it was part of the coach's offensive system to have big men stepping out beyond the ark at shooting 3's. This is probably especially important since their starting back court isn't good at shooting.

There are multiple possible explanations. Taking a lot of 3's in a small stretch of games does not prove one way or another that he can shoot.

[20110913]

Sure he would, coaches will regularly ride the hot hand. If he was indeed hot from 3, then the coach would probably encourage him to take more 3s, not less.

how you explain his 3PTA?FGA is 10 % higher than Vonleh? even his 3FG% is 28% lower than Vonleh.

I'm sure you're trying to get me to say that the difference is because Jokic can shoot and Vonleh can't, but there are other reasonable possibilities, and I'm going to go with any of them.

Indiana this year lacked quality big men outside of Vonleh. They needed him to be their inside presence, so they weren't going to have him hanging out by the perimeter. Or he can't shoot, or their coach is an idiot (he reputation isn't great). He averaged nearly two 3PA a game starting with the 14th game of the season, so it's entirely possible that the coach did have him start shooting more.

Mega Vizura on the other hand, had plenty of big men by comparison. Since the 3 other top bigmen on their roster all shot 3's, I presume that it was part of the coach's offensive system to have big men stepping out beyond the ark at shooting 3's. This is probably especially important since their starting back court isn't good at shooting.

There are multiple possible explanations. Taking a lot of 3's in a small stretch of games does not prove one way or another that he can shoot.

yeah， 15% 3Pta/FGA is small stretch maybe
25mins player, 41% 3Pta/FGA, absolutely not small

[Notanoob]

yeah， 15% 3Pta/FGA is small stretch maybe
25mins player, 41% 3Pta/FGA, absolutely not small

It is very small. Like I said, you want close to 200 3 point attempts before his 3P% becomes something you can make meaningful statements about. He didn't even take 50 3 pointers over that 14 game stretch.

See, when I'm talking about sample size here, I'm talking about the total number of shots that a guy took, not percentage of shots he took that were 3 pointers.

[greenandgold]

Pelton's pWARP model has Jokic becoming a better NBA player than Vonleh. He rates as a top 5 player in the draft.

Jokic is kicking ass in the same Adriatic league that Saric is kicking ass in. He's shooting 64% from 2-point range on pretty high usage. That's tremendous.

[Notanoob]

Pelton's pWARP model has Jokic becoming a better NBA player than Vonleh. He rates as a top 5 player in the draft.

Jokic is kicking ass in the same Adriatic league that Saric is kicking ass in. He's shooting 64% from 2-point range on pretty high usage. That's tremendous.

Yeah, he really is underrated based on his production, especially given his age. I mean, it's not as though there aren't a lot of foreign prospects getting attention, so that strikes me as odd. I'm going to see how he compares to Nurkic.

[Thespianoid]

Jokic hit his 3's from a shorter line in Europe

I don't think the 3PT line is shorter in Europe than in the NCAA:

A quick search puts the Euroleague 3PT line at 22 ft, 1.764 inches. The college 3PT line is 20 ft, 9 inches.

Not that it changes your analysis at all, but I just wanted to clear up something.

[Notanoob]

Jokic hit his 3's from a shorter line in Europe

I don't think the 3PT line is shorter in Europe than in the NCAA:

A quick search puts the Euroleague 3PT line at 22 ft, 1.764 inches. The college 3PT line is 20 ft, 9 inches.

Not that it changes your analysis at all, but I just wanted to clear up something.

Oh, I meant shorter than the NBA 3 point line, which means that there is a risk that his 3 ball doesn't translate. I always mentally adjust a guy's 3P% down one for the transition the the NBA line.

[Thespianoid]

Jokic hit his 3's from a shorter line in Europe

I don't think the 3PT line is shorter in Europe than in the NCAA:

A quick search puts the Euroleague 3PT line at 22 ft, 1.764 inches. The college 3PT line is 20 ft, 9 inches.

Not that it changes your analysis at all, but I just wanted to clear up something.

Oh, I meant shorter than the NBA 3 point line, which means that there is a risk that his 3 ball doesn't translate. I always mentally adjust a guy's 3P% down one for the transition the the NBA line.

ah right that makes more sense given the rest of the sentence... Carry on!

[Novocaine]

based on what you said, they are good shooters
how about their 3P made last 14 games?
how about their last 22 3P made?

14 games is too small of a sample size to judge a shooter. You want something around 200 3 point attempts before you start to draw meaningful conclusions about how good of a shooter a guy is.

Your approach is way too conservative to be functional. Your assessment of a young player long-range shooting potential would be limited to very few guys. You don't have opinions on how college freshmen project as shooters?

One can look at the evolution, even with small subsamples, at the mechanics and its consistency, at the misses, if they're going left and right and by how far to form an opinion.

Jokic is a big guy who, unlike most guards, only started shooting 3s recently. He's good form on set shots and his efficiency has been steadily increasing. There are good reasons to believe he'll eventually become a solid 3pt shooter, even though he's far from one now.

Unfortunately for Jokic, his feet speed doesn't project nearly as well. He's very slow (even his technical gestures tend to be executed in a slow, deliberate, way) and a tad soft as well. His body needs a lot of work for him to have a chance of becoming a NBA player.