2013-2014 College Basketball / '14 NBA Draft Thread

[76ciology]

ESPN Insider WARP projection:

1. Marcus Smart, PG, Oklahoma State Cowboys
Win%: .512 | Age: 20.1 | WARP projection: 3.6

Several factors propelled Smart to the top of the WARP projections. He is young for a sophomore, just 10 days older than Joel Embiid. Smart's projected steal rate is tops for any projected first-round pick, which is important because steal rate has been a strong indicator of NBA success. He is also an excellent rebounder and has been surprisingly good playing against star point guards. Players similar to Smart tend to perform better in the NBA as the professional floor typically is more open, allowing them to create off the dribble.

2. Capela
3. Nurkic
4. Exum
5. Adams
6. Embiid
7. Parker
8. Vonleh
9. Hairston
10. Ennis

Surprised to see Capela so high. They also have years past. Looking at the lists they've compiled from years past, they seem pretty accurate.

Jabari

7. Jabari Parker, F, Duke Blue Devils
Win%: .444 | Age: 19.1 | WARP projection: 2.5
Among likely NCAA first-round picks, only Doug McDermott has a higher projected usage rate than Parker, who should be able to create his own shot immediately. In time, Parker should also become an efficient scorer, and he's a good enough rebounder to handle either forward spot. The questions about him almost entirely center on his defense.

Wiggins

19. Andrew Wiggins, SF, Kansas Jayhawks
Win%: .392 | Age: 19.2 | WARP projection: 1.3
A possible No. 1 pick, Wiggins didn't perform like one during his lone NCAA season. Wiggins is better than his projection because of his potential as an on-ball defender, but nothing in his stat line suggests likely superstardom. In particular, his projected usage rate (18.8 percent) is unspectacular for an NBA-bound wing, highlighting the improvement Wiggins needs to make handling the basketball.

[snoopdogg88]

i never thought i'd hear myself say this, but i'm actually starting to lean towards Jabari over Wiggins

I think I'm going to be slightly disappointed if the Bucks do take Parker

[LongLiveHinkie]

oops

[LongLiveHinkie]

i never thought i'd hear myself say this, but i'm actually starting to lean towards Jabari over Wiggins

I think I'm going to be slightly disappointed if the Bucks do take Parker

Embiid is my #1 right now, but I've been going back and forth with Wiggins and Parker recently, when I used to have Wiggins way ahead.

The main reason is because I'm just not sure Wiggins can be a top level scorer in the NBA. When you draft a wing player in the top 3, they have to be a top level scorer. 20-25 ppg when they reach their prime. I think Wiggins could get there, which is why I have been bouncing back and forth, but I think it's pretty much a lock that Parker does.

Now Parker will probably never be an elite defender in the NBA, but he seems to have the killer instinct to at least be decent enough.

Wiggins just needs to polish so many things in his game that it worries me. Now he has the raw tools, but even if he only reaches his potential in a couple of those areas, he may not be worthy of #3. He needs to hit on most of them.

Tough call.

[PhilasFinest]

Will smart be able to bully NBA players to get his stats? Developing his shot is critical.

High school and college coaches need to stop teaching their players to go strong to the rim. Depending on a player's built, if they go strong to the rim, they are "bullying" their opponents for their statistical benefit. In fact, just teach all players to perfect their jump shots and have no contact at all. Otherwise, they will no longer be appealing prospects, like Randle and Smart.

Aggressive drives has evolved into "bullying", a preexisting negative connotation. Humorous to me. I hope we have a team full of bullies.

THIS!

I agree Smart has to improve on some things, mainly his shot selection and jump shot.....but the rest of his game is pretty damn good. Strength is not a bad thing and "bully" ball can get you to the FT line....ask LeBron and Melo.

[Slacktard]

AI played bully ball

[CoreyGallagher]

A single week until the draft, I'm ready!

[LongLiveHinkie]

Keith Pompey suggests if Wiggins is cone, the Sixers could trade down for Vonleh. I don't care what the circumstance is, trading down in this draft is idiotic. You don't pass on one of the top 3 players unless you got Kevin Durant or something outrageous, which isn't realistic.

[freshie2]

Will smart be able to bully NBA players to get his stats? Developing his shot is critical.

High school and college coaches need to stop teaching their players to go strong to the rim. Depending on a player's built, if they go strong to the rim, they are "bullying" their opponents for their statistical benefit. In fact, just teach all players to perfect their jump shots and have no contact at all. Otherwise, they will no longer be appealing prospects, like Randle and Smart.

Aggressive drives has evolved into "bullying", a preexisting negative connotation. Humorous to me. I hope we have a team full of bullies.

Billups and Mark Jackson were PGs that were well high end players and could take players on the block. Stuckey is physical but less effective (much less)...which will Smart become?

Where the Sixers are picking, you want greatness, not grit without the accompanying skill.

[ShowYaLuv25]

Keith Pompey suggests if Wiggins is cone, the Sixers could trade down for Vonleh. I don't care what the circumstance is, trading down in this draft is idiotic. You don't pass on one of the top 3 players unless you got Kevin Durant or something outrageous, which isn't realistic.

Agreed, if we come out of this draft with Vonleh as our best prospect I'll be extremely disappointed.

[76ciology]

Keith Pompey suggests if Wiggins is cone, the Sixers could trade down for Vonleh. I don't care what the circumstance is, trading down in this draft is idiotic. You don't pass on one of the top 3 players unless you got Kevin Durant or something outrageous, which isn't realistic.

I find this to be interesting

http://asubstituteforwar.wordpress.com/2014/05/25/will-the-76ers-pass-on-andrew-wiggins/

To point out, this all may be a coincidence. Noel and Carter-Williams were mostly considered “Best Player Available” by at 6 and 11 conventional, non-statistical draft methods as well. However, considering Sam Hinkie’s Rockets analytics background, there stands at least a solid chance analytics affected their picks and going out of their way to trade for Noel. If so, let’s look at what it could predict for the Sixers 2014 draft. First, combined Blk+Stl per 40. I included the NCAA players rated in the top 14 on Draftexpress.com’s top 100, along with Jordan Adams and Kyle Anderson who are known as analytics-favorites this year:

Joel Embiid – 6.0 (4.5 Blk, 1.5 Stl)
Marcus Smart – 4.2 (0.7 Blk, 3.5 Stl)
Jordan Adams – 3.7 (0.2 Blk, 3.5 Stl)
Noah Vonleh – 3.4 (2.1 Blk, 1.3 Stl)
Jabari Parker – 3.0 (1.6 Blk, 1.4 Stl)
Kyle Anderson – 3.0 (0.9 Blk, 2.1 Stl)
Gary Harris – 2.7
Andrew Wiggins – 2.6 (1.2 Blk, 1.4 Stl)
Tyler Ennis – 2.6
Aaron Gordon – 2.4 (1.3 Blk, 1.1 Stl)
Julius Randle – 1.6 (1.0 Blk, 0.6 Stl)
Nik Stauskas – 0.9
Doug McDermott – 0.5

Now, here is Blk+Stl+Reb+Ast per 40 for these players:

Joel Embiid – 22.3 (4.5 Blk, 1.5 Stl, 14.0 Reb, 2.3 Ast)
Kyle Anderson – 21.3 (0.9 Blk, 2.1 Stl, 10.5 Reb, 7.8 Ast)
Noah Vonleh – 17.9 (2.1 Blk, 1.3 Stl, 13.6 Reb, 0.9 Ast)
Marcus Smart – 17.2 (0.7 Blk, 3.5 Stl, 7.2 Reb, 5.8 Ast)
Julius Randle – 16.9 (1.0 Blk, 0.6 Stl, 13.5 Reb, 1.8 Ast)
Jabari Parker – 15.9 (1.6 Blk, 1.4 Stl, 11.4 Reb, 1.5 Ast)
Aaron Gordon – 15.1 (1.3 Blk, 1.1 Stl, 10.2 Reb, 2.5 Ast)
Jordan Adams – 13.9 (0.2 Blk, 3.5 Stl, 7.1 Reb, 3.1 Ast)
Tyler Ennis – 12.6
Andrew Wiggins – 11.6 (1.2 Blk, 1.4 Stl, 7.1 Reb, 1.9 Ast)
Gary Harris – 11.0
Doug McDermott – 10.7
Nik Stauskas – 7.9

Noah Vonleh – Vonleh rates well on both the Blk+Stl and Blk+Stl+Reb+Ast charts, with his 13.6 rebs per 40 rating as one of the draft’s best. He has the ability to stretch the floor beside Noel and Carter-Williams while playing defenese, which could be a combo an analytics team covets. Like Parker and Wiggins youth would make his stats look especially impressive to the Sixers draft model.

[LloydFree]

Will smart be able to bully NBA players to get his stats? Developing his shot is critical.

High school and college coaches need to stop teaching their players to go strong to the rim. Depending on a player's built, if they go strong to the rim, they are "bullying" their opponents for their statistical benefit. In fact, just teach all players to perfect their jump shots and have no contact at all. Otherwise, they will no longer be appealing prospects, like Randle and Smart.

Aggressive drives has evolved into "bullying", a preexisting negative connotation. Humorous to me. I hope we have a team full of bullies.

THIS!

I agree Smart has to improve on some things, mainly his shot selection and jump shot.....but the rest of his game is pretty damn good. Strength is not a bad thing and "bully" ball can get you to the FT line....ask LeBron and Melo.

Being a physical player is NOT the the same thing as "Bully ball".

"Bully ball" is a one dimensional player who's game relies solely on being big (wide) for their age, and scoring through smaller players. We've seen this a hundred times and never learn... JR Reid, Waymon Tisdale, Stacey King, Sean May, Tyler Hansbrough etc... It's been shown time and time again, that this type of one dimensional player's skills do not transfer well to the NBA.
There are physical players that do not play "bully ball" and do much more than put their head down, "battering ram" into their opponents, and hope the ball falls through or a foul is called. Tim Hardaway was as physical on offense as Marcus Smart, when he was at UTEP. Gary Payton was physical. Baron Davis was physical. Chauncey Billups was physical. Even 6'0 Allen Iverson, was a physical player, at Georgetown.

Playing physical isn't the same thing as playing "Bullyball". And trying to make the terms synonymous, is just a way of creating a "straw man" argument to argue your point in the future.

[BNelley24]

Keith Pompey suggests if Wiggins is cone, the Sixers could trade down for Vonleh. I don't care what the circumstance is, trading down in this draft is idiotic. You don't pass on one of the top 3 players unless you got Kevin Durant or something outrageous, which isn't realistic.

I will bet the life of my younger brother that the 76ers would not trade down. Could you imagine the PR hit they would take if Parker/Embiid are sitting there and they trade down? People would boycott the franchise.

[Agnostifarian]

Smart did a lot of damage receiving the ball coming off baseline screens at OK State. He would collapse the defense driving into its teeth and he got plenty of easy assists dropping the ball off to open team mates in the paint. But Smart is absolutely at his best when the game gets frenetic, particularly on defense where he has an innate sense of where the ball is going next. He'd make one helluva safety in the NFL! Anyway, to boil down Smart's game into "Bully Ball" is to miss the breadth of his contributions to his team. Last point about Smart, he has a competitive spirit and he rallies his team mates together on the floor during almost very break in the action. (Too much for my liking, actually... but he's an extension of the coach on the floor.) Hinkie said on a half time interview last year that he places a high value on guys who display leadership. Smart does that much more so than every player at the top of this draft with the possible exception of Parker, IMO. Smart's only weakness is that he's a streaky shooter coming into the NBA.

[FlightBrothers]

Smart did a lot of damage receiving the ball coming off baseline screens at OK State. He would collapse the defense driving into its teeth and he got plenty of easy assists dropping the ball off to open team mates in the paint. But Smart is absolutely at his best when the game gets frenetic, particularly on defense where he has an innate sense of where the ball is going next. He'd make one helluva safety in the NFL! Anyway, to boil down Smart's game into "Bully Ball" is to miss the breadth of his contributions to his team. Last point about Smart, he has a competitive spirit and he rallies his team mates together on the floor during almost very break in the action. (Too much for my liking, actually... but he's an extension of the coach on the floor.) Hinkie said on a half time interview last year that he places a high value on guys who display leadership. Smart does that much more so than every player at the top of this draft with the possible exception of Parker, IMO. Smart's only weakness is that he's a streaky shooter coming into the NBA.

This could be just my opinion, but I also think if we are fortunate to draft Wiggins a player like Smart will only make him exponentially better by his playmaking, work ethic, emotions, defense intangibles and leadership...

granted you need a big guy which perhaps you get in the next draft, but imagine Wiggns and Smart going head to head in practice all the time too...I really hope we trade up to get Smart the more I think about it...

The steals that Smart could get to lead to easy buckets to Wiggins to get him going...I love pairing those 2 together...

[dbodner]

Steals + blocks isn't exactly the worlds most advanced analytical model.

[Agnostifarian]

I liked this article discussing what the 76ers might be trying to accomplish with the 10th pick (if then don't use it to trade up). The general supposition is that the team has already got the makings of a talented and complimentary core if you assume it begins with Noel, MCW and Wiggins. And, presumably, the team will be back in the lottery next year where there are a bevy of other good prospects, especially bigs, that can round out the core. So, with the 10th pick this year, Philly might bypass the prospect with the highest ceiling (maybe a LaVine) in favor of a guy who really compliments the core. Fit over BPA. If one of the top 8 prospects doesn't fall to us, I like a safer pick like Stauskas at #10 or Payne.

http://www.libertyballers.com/2014-nba- ... sam-hinkie

[Bling76]

ESPN Insider WARP projection:

1. Marcus Smart, PG, Oklahoma State Cowboys
Win%: .512 | Age: 20.1 | WARP projection: 3.6

Several factors propelled Smart to the top of the WARP projections. He is young for a sophomore, just 10 days older than Joel Embiid. Smart's projected steal rate is tops for any projected first-round pick, which is important because steal rate has been a strong indicator of NBA success. He is also an excellent rebounder and has been surprisingly good playing against star point guards. Players similar to Smart tend to perform better in the NBA as the professional floor typically is more open, allowing them to create off the dribble.

2. Capela
3. Nurkic
4. Exum
5. Adams
6. Embiid
7. Parker
8. Vonleh
9. Hairston
10. Ennis

Surprised to see Capela so high. They also have years past. Looking at the lists they've compiled from years past, they seem pretty accurate.

Cool to see the internationals rated so highly. I've been big on them since I began looking into their stats in putting my big board together. I did a write-up on the intl class with some stat/video analysis a while back if anyone's interested:

http://hardwoodblues.com/2014/05/28/studying-abroad/

I really think it could go down as one of the best intl classes of all time, and outside of Exum and Saric, they are receiving next to no hype.

[51X3RF4N]

Smart did a lot of damage receiving the ball coming off baseline screens at OK State. He would collapse the defense driving into its teeth and he got plenty of easy assists dropping the ball off to open team mates in the paint. But Smart is absolutely at his best when the game gets frenetic, particularly on defense where he has an innate sense of where the ball is going next. He'd make one helluva safety in the NFL! Anyway, to boil down Smart's game into "Bully Ball" is to miss the breadth of his contributions to his team. Last point about Smart, he has a competitive spirit and he rallies his team mates together on the floor during almost very break in the action. (Too much for my liking, actually... but he's an extension of the coach on the floor.) Hinkie said on a half time interview last year that he places a high value on guys who display leadership. Smart does that much more so than every player at the top of this draft with the possible exception of Parker, IMO. Smart's only weakness is that he's a streaky shooter coming into the NBA.

This could be just my opinion, but I also think if we are fortunate to draft Wiggins a player like Smart will only make him exponentially better by his playmaking, work ethic, emotions, defense intangibles and leadership...

granted you need a big guy which perhaps you get in the next draft, but imagine Wiggns and Smart going head to head in practice all the time too...I really hope we trade up to get Smart the more I think about it...

The steals that Smart could get to lead to easy buckets to Wiggins to get him going...I love pairing those 2 together...

Why would Wiggins and Smart (presumably 2 starters) be "going head to head" in practice? Do you mean like, they both will be trying to score and out-do the other? Or did you mean they would be going up against one another, guarding each other?

I agree it would be nice to see Wiggins and Smart brought in together. The only concern I have with that situation is having 3 guys on the perimeter who aren't consistent shooters. But Smart and Wiggins, and MCW as well all seem to have a clutch feeling to them, so as long as they hit big shots when it counts, I'd be okay with it.

[Negrodamus]

High school and college coaches need to stop teaching their players to go strong to the rim. Depending on a player's built, if they go strong to the rim, they are "bullying" their opponents for their statistical benefit. In fact, just teach all players to perfect their jump shots and have no contact at all. Otherwise, they will no longer be appealing prospects, like Randle and Smart.

Aggressive drives has evolved into "bullying", a preexisting negative connotation. Humorous to me. I hope we have a team full of bullies.

THIS!

I agree Smart has to improve on some things, mainly his shot selection and jump shot.....but the rest of his game is pretty damn good. Strength is not a bad thing and "bully" ball can get you to the FT line....ask LeBron and Melo.

Being a physical player is NOT the the same thing as "Bully ball".

"Bully ball" is a one dimensional player who's game relies solely on being big (wide) for their age, and scoring through smaller players. We've seen this a hundred times and never learn... JR Reid, Waymon Tisdale, Stacey King, Sean May, Tyler Hansbrough etc... It's been shown time and time again, that this type of one dimensional player's skills do not transfer well to the NBA.
There are physical players that do not play "bully ball" and do much more than put their head down, "battering ram" into their opponents, and hope the ball falls through or a foul is called. Tim Hardaway was as physical on offense as Marcus Smart, when he was at UTEP. Gary Payton was physical. Baron Davis was physical. Chauncey Billups was physical. Even 6'0 Allen Iverson, was a physical player, at Georgetoown.

Playing physical isn't the same thing as playing "Bullyball". And trying to make the terms synonymous, is just a way of creating a "straw man" argument to argue your point in the future.

I apologize for the confusion, but the term "Bullyball" is always evolving, mainly because of subjective analysis.

You see Randle as "one dimensional" because of his size. I thought he was quite impressive at rebounding, ballhandling, decent shot from FT (especially for a freshman big man), became a better passer as the year went on. He was also very, very quick for someone his size.

So I add that all up as someone who is a physical player with other talents.

Then the question arises: Will he be able to out physical (bully) guys in the NBA to get his baskets? I sure hope so! He had a great year taking it hard to the basket and finishing through contact. That's like saying "John Wall is fast at UK, but will he be able to use that speed when he gets in the NBA? Everyone else is faster too!"

What you see from Randle, Smart, or anyone in this draft is far from the finished product. If they need to get bigger or stronger or adjust their game to help them survive in the NBA, I believe they will.