STAT ARTICLE ON KCP AND DRE

[Blkbrd671]

Again, lots of success stories... but note that most of the true stars have already moved well beyond the 3 win share threshold by 20. Anthony Davis and Andre Drummond have placed themselves among those players already flying high and destined for stardom. Steven Adams is on pace to comfortably clear the 3 win share benchmark. Bradley Beal, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Maurice Harkless look like they are going to squeak by into that group just above 3 win shares.

Then there are the guys who don't pass 3 win shares until they are 21, either because of mediocre early performance or staying in college:

To be perfectly honest i have freakin clue what they are talking about so if someone who is savvy with stats could tell me what they are saying, i would greatly appreciate it.

http://www.canishoopus.com/2014/1/30/53 ... ly-returns


Found it intersting that KCP and DRE are the "star" path

[Notanoob]

Pretty simple. KCP was expected to hit 2 win shares by the end of the year because this article was posted in January, he only hit 1.8. However, he's still only 20, so if he passes 3 win shares by the end of next season, then chances are that he's panned out.

He'd join this group of guys to pass 3 win shares by age 21:
Al Horford 5.5, Martell Webster 3.5, Marvin Williams 5.7, Rudy Gay 5.0, Darko Milicic 3.3, LaMarcus Aldridge 3.4, Andrew Bogut 5.5, Charlie Villanueva 3.9, Greg Oden 4.6, Andre Iguodala 6.6, Ben Gordon 3.5, Josh Childress 4.6, Kwame Brown 4.9, Pau Gasol 7.6, Richard Jefferson 4.7, Baron Davis 8.9, Corey Maggette 3.9, Dirk Nowitzki 8.1, Mike Bibby 5.6, Shawn Marion 4.1, Michael Doleac 3.6, Paul Pierce 8.0, Robert Traylor 4.1, Antoine Walker 4.7, Ron Mercer 4.0, Shareef Abdur-Rahim 6.9, Tim Duncan 12.8, Allen Iverson 4.1, Lorenzen Wright 3.2, Ray Allen 4.9, Antonio McDyess 3.6, Jason Kidd 3.7, Sean Elliott 4.6, Derrick McKey 4.1, Kevin Johnson 4.0, Brad Daugherty 6.0, Benoit Benjamin 4.0, Wayman Tisdale 3.2, Charles Barkley 7.5, Michael Jordan 14.0, Clark Kellogg 6.8, James Worthy 5.1, Terry Cummings 8.7

The real star players have collected much more than 3 win shares, but plenty of good players have only collected somewhere between 3 and 4. KCP will likely be in that group.

However, the real star players are generally past 3 career win shares by the time they are 20. Drummond just got 9.9 win shares this season, so he's well on his way to becoming a star player. He had 4.5 win shares when he was only 19, which puts him above Kevin Garnette and Andrew Bynum, but just below LeBron James and Tracy McGrady.

So KCP has good chances of becoming a rotation player, while Andre is very likely to become a big time star.

[ImHeisenberg]

So KCP has good chances of becoming a rotation player, while Andre is very likely to become a big time star.

That sounds about right to me.

[HotelVitale]

To be perfectly honest i have freakin clue what they are talking about so if someone who is savvy with stats could tell me what they are saying, i would greatly appreciate it.

As an advanced stats fan, I gotta say this is a really lazy article which makes bad use of advanced stats. It takes one stat--win shares--and fails to explain it let alone contextualize what it really says about a player. I know the author isn't trying to make this a catch-all authoritative statement, but here are a few obvious problems with the method in this article:
--If you look at win shares per minute you're going to get a completely different list. For instance, Tony Mitchell had three times as many win shares per minute as KCP but didn't play as much. Does that mean Mitchell is three times better, or that he only played garbage minutes where buckets are easier to come by? You don't know without a bunch of other analysis.
--To get win shares, you need to play big minutes, and most of the rookies who get them were simply guys that got a lot of PT. Hence it greatly favors those guys who are ready to contribute--the early bloomers.
--Rookie year efficiency stats are notoriously bad indicators of future success, especially for non big men. Guys like Westbrook and Durant put up terrible win share numbers their rookie years, while guys like Kyrie Irving and Tyreke Evans peaked in their rookie years. As a rookie, you're just getting adjusted and you probably shouldn't know what to do out there since you're still trying things out. (This often isn't true for bigs, especially athletic ones or really large ones, since advanced stats often skew towards efficiency and rebounding numbers, which those guys can usually get even if they're still pretty bad players).
--If you look at our roster from this season, aside from DrumRoe, Jerebko and CV have the most rookie win shares while Bynum has the least (he was apparently epically bad his rookie year). Chauncey doesn't come close to the magic 3 win share mark either. Small sample size, but doesn't mark rookie win shares look like a great predictor.

Most notably, it talks about rookies without noting one of the best-known things about rookie analysis: your first year efficiency stats generally have little bearing on your subsequent career.

[E-Z]

KCP didn't finish within the writer's projections of 3 win shares. 1.8 WS places him in a bracket with more busts than anything, so he's still on the fence.

[Notanoob]

[
--If you look at win shares per minute you're going to get a completely different list. For instance, Tony Mitchell had three times as many win shares per minute as KCP but didn't play as much. Does that mean Mitchell is three times better, or that he only played garbage minutes where buckets are easier to come by? You don't know without a bunch of other analysis.

He explains his reasoning for using Win Shares instead of WS/48 in the comments. Basically he saw no correlation at all, while there was one for regular Win Shares.

Notably, he's also using lottery picks, not non-lottery first round picks or 2nd round picks. Non-lotto 1sts and 2nd round picks are extremely unlikely to pick up win shares because they so rarely play early on, so this very simply method wouldn't apply to them at all.