Official Trade Thread - Part XXVII

[stevemcqueen1]

If Gortat signs a four or five year deal for big money, it puts a damper on a Noel trade because both players are true centers IMO.

I'm not so sure about that. Noel is very agile and should have no trouble covering PF's. Playing him alongside Gortat would be fine, and possibly even dominant on defense. Yes, on offense it could be trouble unless one of them develops better shooting range, but we could probably get away with it for 10 minutes a game.

It's hard to tell with Noel. He's only played 24 college games, mostly against non-conference competition. I have no idea whether or not he could become a good shooter. Maybe he learns to shoot about as well as Booker, and that would be good enough to play PF. Booker shot just 59% from the FT line over his first two seasons in college; that's the same as what Noel shot.

I just don't think the offensive skill set is there for Noel to play PF. A Joakim Noah-like role at C is where he fits IMO.

I'd be surprised if Noel is ever a credible shooter. He had no range whatsoever at Kentucky, and I think he actually had pretty poor touch around the rim too. I don't think the tools are there for him to become a competent shooter.

Someone said elsewhere he's got this hidden face up game and said that's how he could play PF. But I'll believe that when I see it. I think he's a pure C. I think for us to really get our money's worth from him, we'd have to use him like Chicago uses Noah. Maybe Gortat plays PF on offense, he's got a more versatile offensive skill set. But that's not ideal, March is a natural C too.

[stevemcqueen1]

On a bench where he's ALWAYS playing with either Mo Williams or Damian Lillard, I don't think that's much of an issue.

Ariza actually lets Portland possibly move Batum to our bench which makes him a super-sub that fixes almost ALL our problems with our bench, in which case Ariza spends most of his time playing with Lillard.

Ariza would need to start for you guys. He's a starting SF. He's not selfish, but he definitely isn't... inspired coming off the bench.

I don't think you bench Batum for Ariza though. Batum is too good. And I think he fits best at SF. You could try and make it work by starting Batum at SG. But then now what do you do with Matthews?

It'd be a lot simpler just to look for a natural sixth man wing instead of Ariza.

But if you all still wanted to deal for him, then I'd want Claver and McCollum as a start. But I think I could probably get a better offer from a different team by signing Ariza and then waiting to trade him later.

And the timing of a deal would be awkward because of Martell Webster's surgery. If Ariza signs with the Wizards, he'll probably be needed and the earliest you'd see him traded would be closer to the deadline. That doesn't necessarily help you all gear up for a run next season.

[Ruzious]

If Gortat signs a four or five year deal for big money, it puts a damper on a Noel trade because both players are true centers IMO.

I'm not so sure about that. Noel is very agile and should have no trouble covering PF's. Playing him alongside Gortat would be fine, and possibly even dominant on defense. Yes, on offense it could be trouble unless one of them develops better shooting range, but we could probably get away with it for 10 minutes a game.

It's hard to tell with Noel. He's only played 24 college games, mostly against non-conference competition. I have no idea whether or not he could become a good shooter. Maybe he learns to shoot about as well as Booker, and that would be good enough to play PF. Booker shot just 59% from the FT line over his first two seasons in college; that's the same as what Noel shot.

I just don't think the offensive skill set is there for Noel to play PF. A Joakim Noah-like role at C is where he fits IMO.

I'd be surprised if Noel is ever a credible shooter. He had no range whatsoever at Kentucky, and I think he actually had pretty poor touch around the rim too. I don't think the tools are there for him to become a competent shooter.

Someone said elsewhere he's got this hidden face up game and said that's how he could play PF. But I'll believe that when I see it. I think he's a pure C. I think for us to really get our money's worth from him, we'd have to use him like Chicago uses Noah. Maybe Gortat plays PF on offense, he's got a more versatile offensive skill set. But that's not ideal, March is a natural C too.

Agreed, there would be a major spacing problem unless one of them develops a reliable jump shot - which isn't something I'd count on. On defense, Noel can play PF, but offensively... meh. Remember when Horford and Noah played together in college, Horford was the defensive center freeing up Noah to fly all over the court. That's an offensive issue Philly's going to have to deal with if Embiid and Noel are ever healthy at the same time. Embiid might be able to develop a jumper - he's got a better chance than Noel.

[Dark Faze]

Noel is one of the bounciest, high steal rate bigs college basketball has ever seen. You'd almost certainly start him with Embiid. Noel can disrupt the passing lanes, close out on stretch 4's, defense the PNR well, etc. Embiid is the primary offensive option inside and protects the rim. You let Noel score in the flow of the game. No plays run for him.

You need strong shooting wings to eliminate spacing issues, but that frontcourt has too much defensive potential to not have it be a thing.

[stevemcqueen1]

Hands and PIF,

I agree that it makes sense to sign Ariza and Gortat just to retain control of them as an asset.

But there is a way we could benefit from letting Ariza walk: replace him with another good role player in FA this offseason that plays a different position and then have Porter emerge. It's risky. But it's doable. If I was Ernie, and the price tag on Ariza got to 9 or 10 million, I'd let him walk and go after Patrick Patterson and pray that Porter is as good as I thought he was when I drafted him.

Signing Ariza to 9 or 10 million annually is too risky IMO. We'd retain control of him as an asset, but that's buying high on him IMO and his value would decrease as time passed. An Ariza that's making 10 million a year but isn't playing like he did in a contract year suddenly becomes very hard to trade. He would be more liability than asset if it happened. And the league certainly has plenty of bad contracts where teams bought high on a role player and now they find them hard to move. Gerald Wallace, Jeff Green, Kevin Martin, OJ Mayo, Courtney Lee, JJ Reddick, and Carl Landry all come to mind.

[stevemcqueen1]

I would trade Ariza for TRob and ballast.

[gambitx777]

Hands and PIF,

I agree that it makes sense to sign Ariza and Gortat just to retain control of them as an asset.

But there is a way we could benefit from letting Ariza walk: replace him with another good role player in FA this offseason that plays a different position and then have Porter emerge. It's risky. But it's doable. If I was Ernie, and the price tag on Ariza got to 9 or 10 million, I'd let him walk and go after Patrick Patterson and pray that Porter is as good as I thought he was when I drafted him.

Signing Ariza to 9 or 10 million annually is too risky IMO. We'd retain control of him as an asset, but that's buying high on him IMO and his value would decrease as time passed. An Ariza that's making 10 million a year but isn't playing like he did in a contract year suddenly becomes very hard to trade. He would be more liability than asset if it happened. And the league certainly has plenty of bad contracts where teams bought high on a role player and now they find them hard to move. Gerald Wallace, Jeff Green, Kevin Martin, OJ Mayo, Courtney Lee, JJ Reddick, and Carl Landry all come to mind.

This is not a trade but a thought, the rockets are playing fast and loose with Parsons hoping that he stays loyal to them while they try to sign a star and then hope that he takes what ever they can give him to come back and play on a big 3 like team. The problem there is a team can come in and steal him, because they would have to make a choice, nor could they match if he accepts a deal. SO I say we let Ariza walk and go to parsons and offer him 7-9 mill a year for 4 years, whatever we can. I would rather dump that money into a young guy like Parsons and hope he's worth it in the long run, instead of over paying Ariza. There is a good chance a team like us with a young core and solid vets, could steal him away. This is an opportunity and I hope we don't miss out on it.

[verbal8]

This is not a trade but a thought, the rockets are playing fast and loose with Parsons hoping that he stays loyal to them while they try to sign a star and then hope that he takes what ever they can give him to come back and play on a big 3 like team. The problem there is a team can come in and steal him, because they would have to make a choice, nor could they match if he accepts a deal. SO I say we let Ariza walk and go to parsons and offer him 7-9 mill a year for 4 years, whatever we can. I would rather dump that money into a young guy like Parsons and hope he's worth it in the long run, instead of over paying Ariza. There is a good chance a team like us with a young core and solid vets, could steal him away. This is an opportunity and I hope we don't miss out on it.

I think someone offering a $8+ million/year deal for Parsons is relatively likely. Even if Gortat offers a hometeam discount, the Wizards can't really get in a position to make that offer. Even with Gortat and Ariza signed, I wouldn't mind if the Wizard made Parsons a full MLE offer, but I think he wants(and will get) a bigger deal.

[gambitx777]

Right now we sit at about 45.7 we get gortat for about 9-10 mill a year, that puts us at 54-55 if we let ariz walk we could offer Parsons a nice 7-8 mill a year deal. he might want to come here to play with beal and wall and gortat. But you are right, it's a long shot, but it's worth a try.

[tsvqt]

Right now we sit at about 45.7 we get gortat for about 9-10 mill a year, that puts us at 54-55 if we let ariz walk we could offer Parsons a nice 7-8 mill a year deal. he might want to come here to play with beal and wall and gortat. But you are right, it's a long shot, but it's worth a try.

I would think Parson's asking price would be 8, Ariza 9, and Gortat 11. So if we signed Gortat at 11, and Ariza walked...we wouldn't be able to afford Parson's at 8 huh?

[miller31time]

No way in hell we get Parsons for 8mil. The Cavs were already rumored to possibly consider a max contract for the guy. Now, he's obviously not worth that much but the market says he's young, talented and already very productive.

[gambitx777]

I don't think gortat is getting 11, I am hopeful he takes 9.6 but IDK I guess it would all depend on where Parsons want's to play, he's young, he can afford to take a bit less to play with a contender, he probably won't win a title with the cavs.

[Hypnotizer]

I don't think gortat is getting 11, I am hopeful he takes 9.6 but IDK I guess it would all depend on where Parsons want's to play, he's young, he can afford to take a bit less to play with a contender, he probably won't win a title with the cavs.

Gortat under $10M per year would be awesome.

[payitforward]

Hands and PIF,

I agree that it makes sense to sign Ariza and Gortat just to retain control of them as an asset.

But there is a way we could benefit from letting Ariza walk: replace him with another good role player in FA this offseason that plays a different position and then have Porter emerge. It's risky. But it's doable. If I was Ernie, and the price tag on Ariza got to 9 or 10 million, I'd let him walk and go after Patrick Patterson and pray that Porter is as good as I thought he was when I drafted him.

Signing Ariza to 9 or 10 million annually is too risky IMO. We'd retain control of him as an asset, but that's buying high on him IMO and his value would decrease as time passed. An Ariza that's making 10 million a year but isn't playing like he did in a contract year suddenly becomes very hard to trade. He would be more liability than asset if it happened. And the league certainly has plenty of bad contracts where teams bought high on a role player and now they find them hard to move. Gerald Wallace, Jeff Green, Kevin Martin, OJ Mayo, Courtney Lee, JJ Reddick, and Carl Landry all come to mind.

This is not a trade but a thought, the rockets are playing fast and loose with Parsons hoping that he stays loyal to them while they try to sign a star and then hope that he takes what ever they can give him to come back and play on a big 3 like team. The problem there is a team can come in and steal him, because they would have to make a choice, nor could they match if he accepts a deal. SO I say we let Ariza walk and go to parsons and offer him 7-9 mill a year for 4 years, whatever we can. I would rather dump that money into a young guy like Parsons and hope he's worth it in the long run, instead of over paying Ariza. There is a good chance a team like us with a young core and solid vets, could steal him away. This is an opportunity and I hope we don't miss out on it.

I'd do that in a minute, Hands -- as you know, I think we need to get younger. And you are right that Houston is taking some risks w/ him (though who knows what goes on behind closed doors...). But, you'd have to accept that the move would cost us next year.

No way does CP produce at the same level as TA right now. The 2 guys played @ the same minutes last year. WP48 (which, I remind you, correlates 94% w/ real results) credits Ariza with 13.3 of our wins and Parsons w/ 8.1 Rockets' wins. Had Parsons played Trevor's minutes w/ us, we'd have struggled to be a .500 team.

But... Parsons has more years of good play ahead of him than Trevor does. Moreover, I question whether he'll command as much as $9m -- not sure I'd give him that (but, in truth, I haven't really thought it through).

[gambitx777]

Well I don't think hes worth that much either, I would give him the full mid level, but I would rather over pay him, a young guy who is getting better who had to play on a team with Howard and harden who take up a lot of the ball. over Ariza, who only plays well when he needs paid.

[payitforward]

Well I don't think hes worth that much either, I would give him the full mid level, but I would rather over pay him, a young guy who is getting better who had to play on a team with Howard and harden who take up a lot of the ball. over Ariza, who only plays well when he needs paid.

I think that's unfair to Ariza, gambit. Most of his increased productivity over the last 2 years comes from shooting more threes and at an improved clip. You don't really think that's a function of his contract year, do you?

My hesitation over giving Parsons $9m... I think that like a lot of us I need to get used to the bigger salaries as the cap rises. I.e. he might well be "worth" that much in the current NBA world.

[Dark Faze]

so I think the quality of the gortat deal is heavily dependent on if a wounded Nene is next to him during the likely best years of his deal (first two to three).

Realistically speaking, we've got to put our hard hats on and think of a way to move Nene guys, if for nothing else then cap space next summer, but preferably for quality talent for the upcoming season.

Obviously thats hard to do. You've got to buy low on certain guys. Maybe guys that are overpaid. The Josh Smiths of the world.

Here's one crazy suggestion - Amare Stoudemire.

He hosted good per 36 numbers and had a good PER last year in limited minutes. He's hinting that he's trying to reclaim his all-star status this year. Worse comes to worse he becomes Nene 2.0 and expires in the summer allowing us to go after a core piece.

For New York, if Melo doesn't pan out then having a ton of cap space next summer seems foolish. Rumors are LeBron will have either a short term contract with the Heat (2 years) or an opt out in 2 years. Either way if they plan on buying a super team they'll need to meet the minimum salary floor. Nene helps them accomplish this.

[verbal8]

Here's one crazy suggestion - Amare Stoudemire.

He hosted good per 36 numbers and had a good PER last year in limited minutes. He's hinting that he's trying to reclaim his all-star status this year. Worse comes to worse he becomes Nene 2.0 and expires in the summer allowing us to go after a core piece.

If they would take Nene and Webster(or a Seraphin S&T), I would do it in a second - although I doubt EG/Ted would. I think Amare is delusional about his current level of ability, but he probably plays a similar number of minutes to Nene and maybe only a slight drop in production.

I might consider giving up Miller or Booker(S&T), but I would try to at least get Prigioni as an incentive. He is an interesting player in that he is a very low usage point guard. I think he might be a good back-up for Wall, because he could give the second unit spacing - he rarely shoots, but when he does it usually is a 3 pointer and a "game manager". He is basically the same age as Andre Miller, so it would be a stopgap addition.

[LyricalRico]

Here's one crazy suggestion - Amare Stoudemire.

He hosted good per 36 numbers and had a good PER last year in limited minutes. He's hinting that he's trying to reclaim his all-star status this year. Worse comes to worse he becomes Nene 2.0 and expires in the summer allowing us to go after a core piece.

If they would take Nene and Webster(or a Seraphin S&T), I would do it in a second - although I doubt EG/Ted would. I think Amare is delusional about his current level of ability, but he probably plays a similar number of minutes to Nene and maybe only a slight drop in production.

Here's a thought...

Wizards trade: Nene, Webster and Miller
Wizards receive: Amare and Ilyasova

Bucks trade: Ilyasova and Mayo
Bucks receive: Miller and Shumpert

Knicks trade: Amare and Shumpert
Knicks receive: Nene, Webster and Mayo

TRADE ID 6471308

If Milwaukee really wants to rebuild, this saves them money and give them another prospect. If Phil wants to A) add enough talent to convince Melo to stay, while B) keeping his 2016 cap clear for LeBron/Durant, then this might be an option for them.

We follow up by re-signing Ariza and acquiring Norris Cole with our TPE, giving us:

Gortat/Amare/Seraphin
Ilyasova/Gooden
Ariza/Porter
Beal/GRJ
Wall/Cole

We balance the roster and put ourselves in play for whatever happens in 2015.

[Dark Faze]

Not a bad deal at all Lyrical.