Gordon Hayward- what will the best offers be?

[Luigi]

There are limited means of acquiring that talent. As it stands, the Jazz need Hayward far more than we need our cap space.

I don't think we need Hayward much at all. He's nothing special. Why do we need him?

This is a seller's market. And being aggressive to get the guy you want is the play. Matching this deal is definitely a tough pill to swallow, but keep in mind that there are real NBA teams lining up to pay him this kind of cash. That means that is his value on the market. Cap space doesn't win games, players do. And the cap space that is likely to be taken up by this deal is very unlikely to be better spent elsewhere. Now maybe I'm missing something here, so if I am please feel free to enlighten me. Where exactly could the Jazz use these $$ that would be a better investment?

There is a lot of cap space, but there is still a lot that can happen. Lance Stephenson can't get leverage on Indiana for 5/44. Lance is a good step above Hayward. Cleveland is being Cleveland. And I don't trust the Phoenix max deal rumors. But if the market is going to set Hayward at max, we should pass, and hope next summer is better. Redistribution would be better than getting locked into Hayward at a max deal. I really don't think he is hard to replace. Third and fourth options on winning teams are all around.

This is about building a winning franchise. I already explained how I think cap space can make a difference:

I think the free agent issue is overestimated. Just because we aren't going to get Lebron James after a season of tanking doesn't mean cap space becomes useless to the Jazz. When we've been in position to become a winner in free agency, we have. Stockton and Malone covered things for decades. We missed on Jermaine Oneal and Corey Magette because we were sure to suck. Once we got things back together, we picked up Boozer and Okur. That kept us up for a while. We shifted to Al Jefferson for a few years, and then decided to blow it up for the first time ever. Of course this period post tank isn't going to attract any help in free agency, not until we show we are a promising up and coming team again. That is the time the Jazz can hope to get some good free agents. We're not going to attract a super star, but at that point we can add guys coming off of rookie deals like Boozer and Okur, as long as we are a good basketball team where they can play a big role in making us better and we can pay them top dollar. I don't know about you, but I want to become a promising young team sometime in the next five years, and I don't want a Hayward anchor getting in the way when that happens.

Besides that, cap space is an asset. We've absorbed expiring contracts and gotten picks which have been vital to our rebuild. The better, but smaller, possibility is picking up a star in a trade where cap space and picks (acquired using cap space) are always key. I'll hope for that homerun instead of watching max Hayward lead us to 11th in the west for a few years.

I think you're also underestimating the risk. We can't set a precedent of paying rookies near max money for being average. If we load up on near max deals for all of these average youngsters we have, we'll end up on the 10-12th in the west treadmill, not even competing for the playoffs. Yes, we can afford to pay them. But why would we pay them that much for being handcuffed into sub 500 basketball? I'll let max Hayward pass, and keep trying on young talent, trades, and free agency until there's something worth the money that we can pick up. This is critical to becoming an up and coming team that becomes desirable to free agents (from your own team and others) and becoming a winning ball club. Exum could give us that opportunity. Burks might impress us this year. Kanter could explode. If none of that happens, I'm happy to let them go, too. This is about building a winning ball club eventually. It's not about getting locked into a losing ball club because we can afford to pay for it.

[erudite23]

So your plan is "at some point we can get players like Okur and Boozer."


Maybe you aren't paying attention, but it's a different word now than in 2004. When we signed those guys, we were one of 3 teams who had max cap space. There was much less competition for services then, and even at that time it was surprising that we got those guys. If a guy like Boozer (23 year old coming of a season averaging 15/11 on 55% FGs) came on the market today, he would get the max without anyone asking any questions. Okur would probably get 10m+ in this market and neither of those guys would look at coming to Utah.

If we let Hayward go, we'll spend this season and probably next just looking to add payroll to hit the minimum threshold. Maybe the problem here is that you just think Hayward sucks and that he isn't worth 8m. My point is that if he's worth 10m (and I think he pretty clearly is) then he's also worth the max because we won't find a replacement who can offer close to the same production or upside that a 24 year old like him presents. I still don't see any actual plan. You're talking about cap space like its some panacea of dreams, and the truth is that we're likely to end up sitting on it if we don't use it on Gordo. Hell, even after we lock him up we're looking at 15m left....what are we going to do with that?

And if it does end up being a bad deal, we can easily offload it. After a year or two, unless he completely falls off a cliff, it will be an eminently moveable contract. Matching is a no brainer.

[Scrapachenko]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/SamAmicoFSO/status/484417013888974851[/tweet]

Think this tweet fits in here as well...

[Luigi]

So your plan is "at some point we can get players like Okur and Boozer."


Maybe you aren't paying attention, but it's a different word now than in 2004. When we signed those guys, we were one of 3 teams who had max cap space. There was much less competition for services then, and even at that time it was surprising that we got those guys. If a guy like Boozer (23 year old coming of a season averaging 15/11 on 55% FGs) came on the market today, he would get the max without anyone asking any questions. Okur would probably get 10m+ in this market and neither of those guys would look at coming to Utah.

If we let Hayward go, we'll spend this season and probably next just looking to add payroll to hit the minimum threshold. Maybe the problem here is that you just think Hayward sucks and that he isn't worth 8m. My point is that if he's worth 10m (and I think he pretty clearly is) then he's also worth the max because we won't find a replacement who can offer close to the same production or upside that a 24 year old like him presents. I still don't see any actual plan. You're talking about cap space like its some panacea of dreams, and the truth is that we're likely to end up sitting on it if we don't use it on Gordo. Hell, even after we lock him up we're looking at 15m left....what are we going to do with that?

And if it does end up being a bad deal, we can easily offload it. After a year or two, unless he completely falls off a cliff, it will be an eminently moveable contract. Matching is a no brainer.

The plan is continue with the rebuild and don't get derailed by a max offer to a replaceable piece. Of course there are many components of a rebuild. I explained how cap space (one component of the plan) can work in a few different ways. I have already admitted that it may not do a lot this summer (but lance gives us hope), when our team is terrible and there are lots of buyers. One component of the plan is to look at free agents at the right time. If we are going to get free agents, we get them when we show promise. Don't misunderstand, that's not the only piece of the plan. This is not a good year to be a buyer, so don't buy because you fall in love with Gordon Hayward. He's almost completely unremarkable. I see no compelling reason to make a commitment to that kind of player because we can afford it waiting to give an extension to Exum. That's not a plan I can support.

Just answer me this one question: is Hayward more than a third option on a winning NBA team?

[Luigi]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/SamAmicoFSO/status/484417013888974851[/tweet]

Think this tweet fits in here as well...

And half of the informed Jazz fanbase is willing to match a max deal. Our self-esteem has never been lower, hahaha

[jamesnamida]

The cavs should trade waiters for a great shooter and defender at the 2.
Then put out an offer for oden.

[Johnlac1]

Gordon just seems like Mike Dunlevy II....a guy that does things...but non of them great. I think in the NBA you have to one thing great ...shooting...passing...defense...something.

I just don't see the demand for this kind of player. Solid on a bad team....probably a bench guy on a good team.

Not exactly a good comparison. Dunleavy is in the league because of his ability to come off a curl and hit threes. Hayward is more a scorer than a shooter and a better all-around player than Dunleavy. And since Hayward is a lot younger than Dunleavy, he's worth more on the open market....despite being a mediocre shooter.

[Scalabrine]

Well the suns offered eric gordon a max deal and new orleans matched it, and i'd like to think gordon hayward is more useful then an injury plagued eric gordon so i do think the max salary he is going to find is a max deal... having said that he is definitely not worth that much i would give him 10-11m/yr

Yeah, Eric Gordon was a much better player. Check out their head to head seasons before their payday:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... 01&y2=2011

Gordon:
22.3 ppg (.506 efg)

Hayward:
16.2 ppg (on .454 efg)


Gordon Hayward rebounds better, but Eric Gordon was a much, much better scorer. He was a year younger, and won 7 more games than the Jazz did.

Haywood didn't have blake griffin. He also didn't constantly miss games.

A big reason Haywood's numbers went down was because he was forced to take on a bigger offensive load with al and milsap gone he was the 1st option most of the season.

I think he's prime for a deal under batums but since he's an rfa he will get at minimum what batums getting.







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[Luigi]

A big reason Haywood's numbers went down was because he was forced to take on a bigger offensive load with al and milsap gone he was the 1st option most of the season.

If he becomes the first option, don't you think his numbers should be inflated? Everyone always complains about star players that put up empty stats on losing teams. Hayward put up highly inefficient stats on a losing team. He was among the least efficient SFs in the league last year.

We've learned that Hayward is a 3rd option on a winning basketball team. He's probably a 4th option on a contender. That shouldn't get him a payday anywhere above 10M a year. But we're hearing about bogus max deals out of Phoenix and Cleveland.

[erudite23]

The plan is continue with the rebuild and don't get derailed by a max offer to a replaceable piece. Of course there are many components of a rebuild. I explained how cap space (one component of the plan) can work in a few different ways. I have already admitted that it may not do a lot this summer (but lance gives us hope), when our team is terrible and there are lots of buyers. One component of the plan is to look at free agents at the right time. If we are going to get free agents, we get them when we show promise. Don't misunderstand, that's not the only piece of the plan. This is not a good year to be a buyer, so don't buy because you fall in love with Gordon Hayward. He's almost completely unremarkable. I see no compelling reason to make a commitment to that kind of player because we can afford it waiting to give an extension to Exum. That's not a plan I can support.

Just answer me this one question: is Hayward more than a third option on a winning NBA team?

Possibly. But even if he isn't, that doesn't mean that matching is a bad proposition. Its all about where the scarcity lies. On a great NBA team, you can't afford to pay a player like Gordon Hayward 15m a season, because the scarcity is in the cap space available to your team. You've got great players who deserve big money and you can't splurge on a piece like him.

On the current Jazz team, the scarcity lies in talent. Remember, no one is saying he deserves this kind of contract. But the Jazz are sitting here with no big time players to use up our space, some good young players on rookie scale contracts, and a desperate need for all the talent we can get. Hayward has that talent, and the chances of getting a comparable player with his skill set are slim. In fact, there's basically no way to replace him any time in the next year or two.

If we were to pay him the max, his contract would be up in 4 years (instead of the 6 years that AK got, btw) and it likely wouldn't hamstring us at all until, at the earliest, the 4th year of the deal. But it would allow us to keep the asset, continue to develop him, and create continuity in our team while we accumulate more assets and build our identity.

What I'm trying to explain to you is that Gordo is not a disposable commodity. You can't just walk out on the street and get someone like him (as evidenced by the interest he's generating in FA) and the Jazz are a team lacking in talent, not cap space. If we were, say, OKC and he was coming on the market, I would advocate letting him go if he were to get more than even 9m/season. Indiana is in a similar position right now with Lance Stephenson. But we are the Jazz. We won 25 games last year, barely hit the minimum salary threshold, and drafted in the top 5. We need players. Good ones. Gordon is that. I would overpay to keep him rather than let him go because we are unlikely to be in a position where an overpay would legitimately hurt us.

[Scalabrine]

A big reason Haywood's numbers went down was because he was forced to take on a bigger offensive load with al and milsap gone he was the 1st option most of the season.

If he becomes the first option, don't you think his numbers should be inflated? Everyone always complains about star players that put up empty stats on losing teams. Hayward put up highly inefficient stats on a losing team. He was among the least efficient SFs in the league last year.

We've learned that Hayward is a 3rd option on a winning basketball team. He's probably a 4th option on a contender. That shouldn't get him a payday anywhere above 10M a year. But we're hearing about bogus max deals out of Phoenix and Cleveland.

I agree with you. Hayward is not a first option and they didn't have muc else so he was inefficient. When you put him next to scorers and let him be a passer and get some open shots and bring intangibles he's a very solid piece but as a first option it's clear that he will be in over his head. I wouldn't give him more then 12 as an rfa and I would expect the jazz to match, which is why some team that is desperate and has a history with him (like the Suns) could offer more. A max for him is what? 14 million?

[dautjazz]

The cavs should trade waiters for a great shooter and defender at the 2.
Then put out an offer for oden.

Wow people are still holding out hope for Oden? Oden hasn't really played since December 5th 2009. Unless you consider this year which he played a total of 212 minutes in the season and 7 minutes in the playoffs. Let that sink in. Oden is a 6.6 PF per36, so even if he every got to a state where his body allowed him to play a good amount of minutes, he needs to learn how to avoid foul trouble.

[bwgood77]

I think all of the restricted free agents will probably get $10-12 million offers. At least the ones everyone are talking about.

[Luigi]

What I'm trying to explain to you is that Gordo is not a disposable commodity.

This is our disagreement. I think we've learned that Hayward is a highly disposable commodity, even for the struggling Jazz. I don't think our record will budge more than a few games in either direction because of the presence of Hayward. He's not that kind of impact player. Reports about max deals our of Phoenix and Cleveland have been bogus.

We agree that we have to improve to have any pull using cap space for keeper pieces. But we disagree about whether Hayward gives us pull, and whether Hayward is much of a keeper piece (at 8M, I'd really like him). It sounds like you'd like to use Hayward to get traction in that direction. I don't think he'll give us any traction. My fallback is to use cap space in other, less permanent ways to make improvements (absorb salary for picks, stay flexible for trades, and get short term deals). The time will come to overpay for a keeper player (like we did for AK, and like we'll have to for any of the youngsters that really improves this year). If I believed that Hayward did have the ability to get us closer to being a promising young team, I'd overpay for him to take that next step. But we disagree over that.

[jazzfan1971]

Doesn't the fact of several NBA GMs considering giving him a max deal indicate he has 'traction'?

[Luigi]

Doesn't the fact of several NBA GMs considering giving him a max deal indicate he has 'traction'?

Those offers have been bogus.

Only one report out of Jody Gennesy for the Phoenix offer.

And...

[tweet]https://twitter.com/SamAmicoFSO/status/484417013888974851[/tweet]

[Litany]

For a guy who has zero elite nba skills Hayward is sure as hell getting a lot of attention during free agency.




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[mcfly1204]

For a guy who has zero elite nba skills Hayward is sure as hell getting a lot of attention during free agency.

We get it.

[dautjazz]

For a guy who has zero elite nba skills Hayward is sure as hell getting a lot of attention during free agency.

We get it.

Not sure if you're being sarcastic or a jerk. He certainly has a point. In a year where Lebron, Bosh, Wade, Carmelo, Duncan, Dirk, Deng and others were/are FA's, Hayward has gotten quite a lot of attention. I didn't think he was going to get half the attention he's getting.

[Litany]

For a guy who has zero elite nba skills Hayward is sure as hell getting a lot of attention during free agency.

We get it.

Sorry. I'm very annoyed by this max contract nonsense. Maybe taking it a step too far.


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