Otto Porter

[stevemcqueen1]

Nate hopefully Wall and Beal aren't reaching their primes at ages 21 and 24. That would be peaking very early.

Most players that have long careers are in their prime years at 27 and 28.

I expect Wall and Beal to keep improving for a long time. And I expect them to be years away from the best individual parts of their careers.

But there is no reason to deprive them of surrounding talent before they reach their primes just because they're not truly ready to carry a contender on their backs. Actually for them to really develop, they need to be playing with other good players IMO. They need to be playing good team basketball and playing meaningful games at the end of each season and getting tempered in the playoffs.

Establishing a culture of success and winning is the biggest thing an organization can do for promoting the success and development of your young players. There's a reason teams like San Antonio can take undervalued/flawed prospects and free agent castoffs and make it work with them. They play with a bunch of other good players for great coaches in a great system for an organization with a great culture. That's where we want to get eventually.

Our goal needs to be winning 50+ games a year for the rest of Wall's career.

This past season was profoundly successful IMO. Hugely important for Brad and John that they made the playoffs early in their career and won a series. Those can be a monkey on your back that leads to a whole lot of questions and problems. And I think that frittering away that success from last year and backsliding is the single worst mistake we could make this year. That's why letting Gortat walk was utterly unacceptable, and why the FO made sure there was never a serious chance of that happening. That's why any Nene trade is so difficult and won't happen. And why we're placing so much emphasis on extending Ariza.

Although IMO, I think we could lose Ariza without really backsliding because of Porter and the MLE.

[stevemcqueen1]

Respectfully - I somewhat disagree- TA had his best year and scored 14 points and had 6 rebounds at 29 years old and if porter doesn't do better than that than in the next 3 years then IMO they should have traded the porter pick for future considerations. The only way porter is going to get better is to get major minutes. Starter or first off the bench minutes- if the wiz sign TA for major money, we will be committing that TA is our starting 3 for at least the next 2 or so years.

I acknowledge Ariza could be great at 31-32. But that supports the fact that mid to late 20s early 30s are nba primes--- and wall and beal not there-

I agree with parts of your thinking but not all.

I disagree with your first assertion that signing Ariza to a long term deal means we've given up on Porter.

But I agree that Wall and Beal are still years from their prime. I agree that Ariza probably won't be great at the end of this deal.

First off, it's no lock that if Ariza keeps the starting job this year if he signs a long term deal. It's extremely likely, but not a lock. Porter could simply beat Ariza out for the job. We thought Webster was going to be the starting SF after signing his deal last summer after all.

And I wonder if this isn't one of the reasons giving Ariza pause in his decision to stay here. If we made him a fair offer, it should have been a no-brainer for him. Sign before the rest of the SF market ahead of him gets settled and stay with the only team that has John Wall. He's a team first guy, but he must realize that every single season Porter is going to be breathing down his neck.

Maybe it's irrational confidence, but I'm actually pretty confident Porter is going to force the coaches to expand his role this season and that, barring injury, he's going to be the sixth man before Christmas.

And I think it's for the best that a young player work to earn his role when he gets drafted onto a playoff team. San Antonio didn't just give Kawhi Leonard his job, he earned it. IMO that's how it needs to work when you have your two foundation pieces already in Wall and Beal and they need to win now.

But as Porter grows, he's going to push Ariza. And there is going to be pressure to start Porter every time Ariza goes through a down stretch. And those will happen because Ariza is a streaky offensive player who is extremely reliant on Wall.

The thing that scares me about signing Ariza to a 9 or 10 million per year contract isn't so much that it will waste Porter. I'm more scared that Porter will push Ariza to the bench and make Ariza untradeable. Ariza is not suited for coming off the bench for us, he has to play almost all of his minutes with Wall IMO.

[nate33]

Nate hopefully Wall and Beal aren't reaching their primes at ages 21 and 24. That would be peaking very early.

Most players that have long careers are in their prime years at 27 and 28.

I expect Wall and Beal to keep improving for a long time. And I expect them to be years away from the best individual parts of their careers.

Players may peak at 27-28, but they usually get pretty close to their peak by their 3rd or 4th season and then plateau for a while after that. In that case, I consider their "prime" to be once they get to the front edge of that plateau, even if it's a slightly increasing plateau for a while.

[CobraCommander]

Respectfully - I somewhat disagree- TA had his best year and scored 14 points and had 6 rebounds at 29 years old and if porter doesn't do better than that than in the next 3 years then IMO they should have traded the porter pick for future considerations. The only way porter is going to get better is to get major minutes. Starter or first off the bench minutes- if the wiz sign TA for major money, we will be committing that TA is our starting 3 for at least the next 2 or so years.

I acknowledge Ariza could be great at 31-32. But that supports the fact that mid to late 20s early 30s are nba primes--- and wall and beal not there-

I agree with parts of your thinking but not all.

I disagree with your first assertion that signing Ariza to a long term deal means we've given up on Porter.

But I agree that Wall and Beal are still years from their prime. I agree that Ariza probably won't be great at the end of this deal.

First off, it's no lock that if Ariza keeps the starting job this year if he signs a long term deal. It's extremely likely, but not a lock. Porter could simply beat Ariza out for the job. We thought Webster was going to be the starting SF after signing his deal last summer after all.

And I wonder if this isn't one of the reasons giving Ariza pause in his decision to stay here. If we made him a fair offer, it should have been a no-brainer for him. Sign before the rest of the SF market ahead of him gets settled and stay with the only team that has John Wall. He's a team first guy, but he must realize that every single season Porter is going to be breathing down his neck.

Maybe it's irrational confidence, but I'm actually pretty confident Porter is going to force the coaches to expand his role this season and that, barring injury, he's going to be the sixth man before Christmas.

And I think it's for the best that a young player work to earn his role when he gets drafted onto a playoff team. San Antonio didn't just give Kawhi Leonard his job, he earned it. IMO that's how it needs to work when you have your two foundation pieces already in Wall and Beal and they need to win now.

But as Porter grows, he's going to push Ariza. And there is going to be pressure to start Porter every time Ariza goes through a down stretch. And those will happen because Ariza is a streaky offensive player who is extremely reliant on Wall.

The thing that scares me about signing Ariza to a 9 or 10 million per year contract isn't so much that it will waste Porter. I'm more scared that Porter will push Ariza to the bench and make Ariza untradeable. Ariza is not suited for coming off the bench for us, he has to play almost all of his minutes with Wall IMO.

Fair points- my concerns lie with the fact that I can't recall a wiz that has been developed and then flourished. Wiz players seem to make it in spite of coaching and development. Wall is so gifted that he was the best player on a Kentucky team that had 3 nba starters - maybe 3 all stars- beal was touted as Ray Allen's second coming- and porter is well - porter appears to be a mediocre and possibly untested college player and a career bench player that cashed in on being a part of one of the weakest draft classes of all time-

[stevemcqueen1]

Fair points- my concerns lie with the fact that I can't recall a wiz that has been developed and then flourished. Wiz players seem to make it in spite of coaching and development. Wall is so gifted that he was the best player on a Kentucky team that had 3 nba starters - maybe 3 all stars- beal was touted as Ray Allen's second coming- and porter is well - porter appears to be a mediocre and possibly untested college player and a career bench player that cashed in on being a part of one of the weakest draft classes of all time-

A lot of our young players regressed or never caught on. But I think that's mostly because the environment here wasn't one where any young player except a transcendent talent like Wall could even tread water. Wall had some pretty profound struggles too before it came together in year three. Beal really really struggled during 5-28 before Wall came back and stabilized the whole team. I don't think Beal succeeds either if not for Wall and a playoff worthy group of players surrounding him.

Today we've got a much more stable environment, conducive to the success and development of all players, not just the young ones, though both Wall and Beal have made huge strides. Ariza and Webster really rejuvenated their careers here. Gortat had the finest season of his career when he settled in IMO. Porter is in a good situation where there isn't going to be nearly the amount of pressure on him that there was on Wall or Blatche or McGee or Vesely.

I think you're selling Porter short. Porter was a terrific college player. A better one than Beal was, and he's the same age. Porter was a POTY candidate and the Big East POTY and an All American. He couldn't have gone #3 in a really good class, but if he was in this year's class coming out after that fantastic sophomore year, I bet he goes 10th. Elfrid Payton wouldn't get picked ahead of him. Doug McDermott wouldn't have been picked ahead of him in 2013 if McDermott had declared.

Porter is a quality talent who compared favorably to Kawhi Leonard and Paul George when they were coming out of college.

[stevemcqueen1]

Nate hopefully Wall and Beal aren't reaching their primes at ages 21 and 24. That would be peaking very early.

Most players that have long careers are in their prime years at 27 and 28.

I expect Wall and Beal to keep improving for a long time. And I expect them to be years away from the best individual parts of their careers.

Players may peak at 27-28, but they usually get pretty close to their peak by their 3rd or 4th season and then plateau for a while after that. In that case, I consider their "prime" to be once they get to the front edge of that plateau, even if it's a slightly increasing plateau for a while.

Players might start putting up star numbers in season 3 or 4 but they usually don't learn the important stuff and get truly good until they're in their mid to late 20s. Those are their prime years, where they tend to really compete for rings. The NBA is a wait your turn league for this reason.

This is roughly how the last 30 years of NBA history has gone:

The Bad Boys Pistons were loaded with talent but it took them several years to learn how to beat the Celtics and displace them as the Celtics got old. It was a passing of the torch moment when it happened. Same dynamic with the Bulls a couple years later. Jordan and Pippen were talented but it took them time and maturity to displace the Pistons. Orlando is super talented but too young to knock off a very veteran Rockets team and then they never really arrive because Shaq leaves for LA before he reaches the mature point of his career where he's ready to really win. Then Shaq is the dominant force in the league and now he's the guy keeping the next generation of greats like Dirk and Garnett from winning, with some smattering of Spurs success mixed in there. Then it's LA and Boston's turn and they're the ones who keep the CP3 & LeBron & Dwight generation from winning. LeBron was a perennial MVP talent in Cleveland and he didn't know how to beat Boston. Then LeBron goes to Miami and Boston declines and Dallas deconstructs themselves and Kobe's Lakers fall apart and it's LeBron's turn. And now he's essentially the one making Durant wait his turn.

It's going to be a while before it's Wall's turn. If ever. I think he's at least three or four years away from being at the point in his development where he can anchor a contender and seriously compete for a ring.

[CobraCommander]

Fair points- my concerns lie with the fact that I can't recall a wiz that has been developed and then flourished. Wiz players seem to make it in spite of coaching and development. Wall is so gifted that he was the best player on a Kentucky team that had 3 nba starters - maybe 3 all stars- beal was touted as Ray Allen's second coming- and porter is well - porter appears to be a mediocre and possibly untested college player and a career bench player that cashed in on being a part of one of the weakest draft classes of all time-

A lot of our young players regressed or never caught on. But I think that's mostly because the environment here wasn't one where any young player except a transcendent talent like Wall could even tread water. Wall had some pretty profound struggles too before it came together in year three. Beal really really struggled during 5-28 before Wall came back and stabilized the whole team. I don't think Beal succeeds either if not for Wall and a playoff worthy group of players surrounding him.

Today we've got a much more stable environment, conducive to the success and development of all players, not just the young ones, though both Wall and Beal have made huge strides. Ariza and Webster really rejuvenated their careers here. Gortat had the finest season of his career when he settled in IMO. Porter is in a good situation where there isn't going to be nearly the amount of pressure on him that there was on Wall or Blatche or McGee or Vesely.

I think you're selling Porter short. Porter was a terrific college player. A better one than Beal was, and he's the same age. Porter was a POTY candidate and the Big East POTY and an All American. He couldn't have gone #3 in a really good class, but if he was in this year's class coming out after that fantastic sophomore year, I bet he goes 10th. Elfrid Payton wouldn't get picked ahead of him. Doug McDermott wouldn't have been picked ahead of him in 2013 if McDermott had declared.

Porter is a quality talent who compared favorably to Kawhi Leonard and Paul George when they were coming out of college.

My bad writing is giving you the impression I am selling porter short. I think he has potential but I think he needs serous minutes to develop. TA proved has come into his own and is a legit starter in this league. I think porter needs to fight for the minutes but I fear a contract will guarantee TA the job and porter will get lost, traded and never fulfill his promise. Great points by you and I hope you are right !

[Induveca]

I am most certainly selling Porter short at this point. In not limited, but DECENT minutes he was complete garbage. He needs to prove his worth to the franchise and fans, and QUICKLY. I'd give him more slack, but he's not Andre Drummond he's an anorexic, not overly athletic wing player with a questionable shot.

I pray he lives up to whatever potential others have seen. I don't live in DC, so I get zero chance/desire to watch GU. From the highlights I've seen from him in college, I don't see his game translating to the NBA. Again, obviously as a fan I truly hope I'm wrong.

[stevemcqueen1]

I am most certainly selling Porter short at this point. In not limited, but DECENT minutes he was complete garbage. He needs to prove his worth to the franchise and fans, and QUICKLY. I'd give him more slack, but he's not Andre Drummond he's an anorexic, not overly athletic wing player with a questionable shot.

I pray he lives up to whatever potential others have seen. I don't live in DC, so I get zero chance/desire to watch GU. From the highlights I've seen from him in college, I don't see his game translating to the NBA. Again, obviously as a fan I truly hope I'm wrong.

Otto Porter never played decent minutes. He played 319 minutes. 8.7 minutes per game in 37 games. That's absolutely nothing.

[Induveca]

I am most certainly selling Porter short at this point. In not limited, but DECENT minutes he was complete garbage. He needs to prove his worth to the franchise and fans, and QUICKLY. I'd give him more slack, but he's not Andre Drummond he's an anorexic, not overly athletic wing player with a questionable shot.

I pray he lives up to whatever potential others have seen. I don't live in DC, so I get zero chance/desire to watch GU. From the highlights I've seen from him in college, I don't see his game translating to the NBA. Again, obviously as a fan I truly hope I'm wrong.

Otto Porter never played decent minutes. He played 319 minutes. 8.7 minutes per game in 37 games. That's absolutely nothing.

Steve, I respect and back your hope. But you've been hyping the guy since he was drafted. All of us need to see results prior to prediction. As I stated, let us see what he can do......until then he's a bust.

[Hidden Eye]

How can you call somebody a bust when they get barely no playing time

[Dat2U]

I am most certainly selling Porter short at this point. In not limited, but DECENT minutes he was complete garbage. He needs to prove his worth to the franchise and fans, and QUICKLY. I'd give him more slack, but he's not Andre Drummond he's an anorexic, not overly athletic wing player with a questionable shot.

I pray he lives up to whatever potential others have seen. I don't live in DC, so I get zero chance/desire to watch GU. From the highlights I've seen from him in college, I don't see his game translating to the NBA. Again, obviously as a fan I truly hope I'm wrong.

Otto Porter never played decent minutes. He played 319 minutes. 8.7 minutes per game in 37 games. That's absolutely nothing.

Steve, I respect and back your hope. But you've been hyping the guy since he was drafted. All of us need to see results prior to prediction. As I stated, let us see what he can do......until then he's a bust.

And you've constantly trashed ANY local prospect that's been drafted until proven otherwise so we all have our biases. I think in time, you'll be proven wrong about Porter but if the Wizards re-sign Ariza, any success Porter has would come after he's traded for pennies on the dollar by Ernie. I think Porter is a solid SF prospect, he just may not get the opportunity here.

[Induveca]

Otto Porter never played decent minutes. He played 319 minutes. 8.7 minutes per game in 37 games. That's absolutely nothing.

Steve, I respect and back your hope. But you've been hyping the guy since he was drafted. All of us need to see results prior to prediction. As I stated, let us see what he can do......until then he's a bust.

And you've constantly trashed ANY local prospect that's been drafted until proven otherwise so we all have our biases. I think in time, you'll be proven wrong about Porter but if the Wizards re-sign Ariza, any success Porter has would come after he's traded for pennies on the dollar by Ernie. I think Porter is a solid SF prospect, he just may not get the opportunity here.

This is true, I've never liked "local" draft picks or "local" signings. Just always seemed like cheap PR and cheaper scouting. Without exception in my 20 years being a Bullets/Wizards fan ALL of them have disappointed during their time in DC.

Considering the Wizards are in the bottom 6 of local TV ratings for NBA teams despite being in the top 5 in market size.......the "good PR" vibe doesn't work.

Jahidi White, Michael Smith, Juan Dixon, Terry Davis, Steve Blake, Laron Profit, Lonny Baxter, Obinna Ekezie, Don Reid, Ben Wallace, Otto Porter, Darrell Walker, Ed Tapscott, Eddie Jordan

I have reason to be skeptical.

The only local DC product who mildly succeeded during this period was Eddie Jordan.

Hopefully we sign Durant in a few years and he ends the curse.

[Rafael122]

Steve, I respect and back your hope. But you've been hyping the guy since he was drafted. All of us need to see results prior to prediction. As I stated, let us see what he can do......until then he's a bust.

And you've constantly trashed ANY local prospect that's been drafted until proven otherwise so we all have our biases. I think in time, you'll be proven wrong about Porter but if the Wizards re-sign Ariza, any success Porter has would come after he's traded for pennies on the dollar by Ernie. I think Porter is a solid SF prospect, he just may not get the opportunity here.

This is true, I've never liked "local" draft picks or "local" signings. Just always seemed like cheap PR and cheaper scouting. Without exception in my 20 years being a Bullets/Wizards fan ALL of them have disappointed during their time in DC.

Considering the Wizards are in the bottom 6 of local TV ratings for NBA teams despite being in the top 5 in market size.......the "good PR" vibe doesn't work.

Jahidi White, Michael Smith, Juan Dixon, Terry Davis, Steve Blake, Laron Profit, Lonny Baxter, Obinna Ekezie, Don Reid, Ben Wallace, Otto Porter.

I have reason to be skeptical.

The only local DC product who mildly succeeded during this period was Eddie Jordan.

Hopefully we sign Durant in a few years and he ends the curse.

Paisano, Otto's good. He probably would have went top 10 in this year's draft as well. He's a really good player, just needs the minutes.

[hands11]

Nate hopefully Wall and Beal aren't reaching their primes at ages 21 and 24. That would be peaking very early.

Most players that have long careers are in their prime years at 27 and 28.

I expect Wall and Beal to keep improving for a long time. And I expect them to be years away from the best individual parts of their careers.

But there is no reason to deprive them of surrounding talent before they reach their primes just because they're not truly ready to carry a contender on their backs. Actually for them to really develop, they need to be playing with other good players IMO. They need to be playing good team basketball and playing meaningful games at the end of each season and getting tempered in the playoffs.

Establishing a culture of success and winning is the biggest thing an organization can do for promoting the success and development of your young players. There's a reason teams like San Antonio can take undervalued/flawed prospects and free agent castoffs and make it work with them. They play with a bunch of other good players for great coaches in a great system for an organization with a great culture. That's where we want to get eventually.

Our goal needs to be winning 50+ games a year for the rest of Wall's career.

This past season was profoundly successful IMO. Hugely important for Brad and John that they made the playoffs early in their career and won a series. Those can be a monkey on your back that leads to a whole lot of questions and problems. And I think that frittering away that success from last year and backsliding is the single worst mistake we could make this year. That's why letting Gortat walk was utterly unacceptable, and why the FO made sure there was never a serious chance of that happening. That's why any Nene trade is so difficult and won't happen. And why we're placing so much emphasis on extending Ariza.

Although IMO, I think we could lose Ariza without really backsliding because of Porter and the MLE.

Exactly.

And that's what Ted is talking about when he talks about the young core and building through the draft. Wall, Beal, Otto. Hell he even includes Booker and Kevin in that conversation though we don't know if they will stick.

And surrounding them with solid vet to optimize their development is exactly what they started to do in 2012.
That helped turn the franchise around so they could maximize Wall and Beals development.

[gambitx777]

I really think Porter will be fine, he showed flashed of some good stuff when he did play, but he just did not play enough. This year we should see if he can play, or at the very least has something that can be developed.

[TheBabyMaker]

How can you call somebody a bust when they get barely no playing time

There is a reason he did not get any playing time

Maybe that will change this year if he is ready "Healthy".

[Dark Faze]

How can you call somebody a bust when they get barely no playing time

There is a reason he did not get any playing time

Maybe that will change this year if he is ready "Healthy".

we're talking about a coach that thought it was a good idea to have maynor run our bench unit

cant trust him

[gambitx777]

How can you call somebody a bust when they get barely no playing time

There is a reason he did not get any playing time

Maybe that will change this year if he is ready "Healthy".

If he did not have the injury, he would have gotten more playing time and would have probably done well, he got hurt, and he got a lot of time to learn. Let see how the kid does!

[dckingsfan]

Put me in the camp of he will be fine - but in another year... I think if he has to step in and start we are in trouble.

Edit: SL will be telling to see how much stronger he has become.