RealGM Top 100 List #4

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #4 

Post#261 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Jul 6, 2014 11:05 pm

MisterWestside wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:I'm not talking about switching time zones I'm literally talking about Wilt changing his behavior from year to year, month to month, game to game.


Game to game, eh?

Well, I leave the psychoanalysis to you, Doctor MJ. I'm not getting into that one.

Wilt entered the league capable of being the #2 MVP simply becauseof his defense, but he had a clear tendency to coast on that side of the ball which is why his teams saw such drastic ups and downs even more than the offense.


Even though he wasn't exactly Russell, his defensive value in that era was never in question.

I haven't specifically analyzed the game tape of Chamberlain's defense as of yet, so I'll refrain from comment about that side of the ball.


Have you been reading? It's not exactly hard to find sources talking about Wilts ups and downs when it came to putting max energy into defense?


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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #4 

Post#262 » by ThaRegul8r » Sun Jul 6, 2014 11:13 pm

ardee wrote:Looks like Wilt is going to take this. :grin::grin::grin:

Stick that up the illogical pipes of the hipsters who rank him out of the top 10. :grin:


Quotatious wrote:Basically 14 votes for Wilt (12 confirmed, fpliii still isn't sure but leans towards Wilt, and Gregoire is another poster who votes for him, and his vote will count once he provides some reasoning for it), and no one else has more than 3 votes...Damn, that's very surprising - ThaRegul8r was right about Russell dropping below Kareem, but him saying that Wilt could possibly even fall out of the top 10 is way off...


The Infamous1 wrote:I'm shocked wilt is doing so well.


RayBan-Sematra wrote:Surprised to see Wilt getting voted in.


Since I patted myself on the back for correctly foreseeing how the #2 and #3 spots would turn out before the fact, I'm man enough to also say when I was wrong. I'm surprised by the outcome as well, as I usually see Wilt discussed negatively, and there was a thread some time ago about how Wilt's stock has fallen on this board. I knew Wilt could count on ardee, but I had no idea he would get in this high.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #4 

Post#263 » by ThaRegul8r » Sun Jul 6, 2014 11:17 pm

penbeast0 wrote:I would think their ability to win without HCA would also be important . . . and for playoffs, I value series W/L a lot more than individual games.


Yeah. Championship teams need to also be able to win on the road. You can't always count on HCA. During the regular season stuff happens, and thus you may not be able to finish with a record that will get you HCA. In that event, I want to be able to know that I can still win regardless, not feel like I'm hosed without HCA. Russell in '69 and Hakeem in '95, for example, didn't have homecourt at any point during the postseason but still won titles.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #4 

Post#264 » by RayBan-Sematra » Sun Jul 6, 2014 11:18 pm

fpliii wrote:If there were all star quotas then please provide a link, I appreciate learning.

But even if that's true, so far I have to agree to disagree based on the evidence I've found (and still finding) Wilt had great team support relative to Hakeem. Those guys were quality players and did contribute imo.
Wilt played in an isolation-heavy low post volume scoring role from when he came into the league until 65-66. For the first five years of career, while had some good teammates (Rodgers was a terrific ball-handler and passer, for instance, and Nate was possibly the GOAT man defender in the post and the GOAT non-Russell defender overall), he wasn't surrounded with shooters to space the floor, and prevent defenders from cheating/sagging off their assignments and crowding the paint. There have been some good posts on the matter in the thread. :wink:

I don't think anybody is suggesting Wilt's casts with the Sixers and Lakers were subpar (though some have mentioned that in 66 they underperformed and there were injuries in 68, I don't think anybody is saying his casts were poor those years). People are just stating that in 5 of the 7 years Wilt was asked to score, there was little outside game to speak of on his teams.


I can believe that Wilt faced swarming defenses in the early 60's but in all honesty so did guys like Jordan, Shaq & even Kareem over more of their careers.
Those guys also had to deal with constant double & triple teams and were still expected to remain efficient offensively.
I am sure they also had years and I know they had playoff series where their shooters weren't showing up but it didn't prevent them from remaining efficient and effective individually.

Plus Wilt's average offensive efficiency even in the late 60's/early 70's (when he had good teams/shooters) wasn't exactly stellar considering the average volume at which he was scoring.
This consistent trend of Wilt not consistently being efficient at various points of his career and in different roles leads me to believe that his halfcourt offense wasn't exactly on the GOAT level.

Also even assuming defenses could swarm Wilt more easily back then due to a lack of spacing/shooters there are also other factors in his favor.
The lanes weren't widened until the mid 60's (this is a plus for post scorers), defensive schemes were less advanced, C competition wasn't very good in the early 60's and wings/guards were less athletic back then presumably making them less effective at help defense in comparison to future guards.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #4 

Post#265 » by ThaRegul8r » Sun Jul 6, 2014 11:21 pm

fpliii wrote:Bird actually had a great discussion on the three-point shot in his 1990 autobiography "Drive". I'd like to type it up (or maybe scan it, if I'm too lazy) and share it in the project for posters to consider when evaluating him.


I know for a fact I typed it up at one point, but I don't remember if I lost it in the computer crash that wiped out my database or I had it saved somewhere else off the computer. I've become rather obsessive with saving everything external to the computer since then, but I'll have to see if I had it in any previous drafts.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #4 

Post#266 » by colts18 » Sun Jul 6, 2014 11:23 pm

Here is rank in standard deviations for players in xRAPM from 2001-2014

Tim Duncan 44.80
Kevin Garnett 36.76
LeBron James 33.53
Dirk Nowitzki 33.06
Shaquille O'Neal 29.35
Ben Wallace 26.24
Dwight Howard 24.67
Manu Ginobili 24.43
Jason Kidd 23.96
Andrei Kirilenko 23.29

Dahntay Jones -14.38
Jannero Pargo -14.97
Jacque Vaughn -15.84
Trenton Hassell -16.23
Royal Ivey -16.27
Willie Green -16.90
Malik Allen -16.90
Sasha Pavlovic -16.94
Juwan Howard -18.52
DeShawn Stevenson -20.57

Duncan is the best by this method. KG and Shaq trail though this doesn't include Shaq's best seasons
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #4 

Post#267 » by ThaRegul8r » Sun Jul 6, 2014 11:24 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:This time around it seems like people are putting more emphasis on how someone would do in an ideal situation in space and time, and that's one valid criteria to go by...I suppose I just have my doubts that they'll follow through with it as we progrsss.


That's why I keep harping on consistent criteria. Whatever criteria you use, stick to it, and don't just pull it out when it favors your guy. A lot of people are selective about when they choose to apply it.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #4 

Post#268 » by ThaRegul8r » Sun Jul 6, 2014 11:28 pm

drza wrote:This was an interesting turning point in the project, as apparently there was a consensus top-3 and then an explosion of others. A lot of interesting cases can (and have) been made, but I actually fear that the numbers of worthy candidates makes it impossible to give every candidate their just due. Whereas we hit Kareem's and Russell's cases in thorough depth, it feels like we've gone a bit more superficial in this thread. And again, I can understand why...you just can't go max depth on so many players at once. I missed the first day of posting, and which kind of makes me feel like I lost contact with the thread. It appears that Wilt has the sure momentum here. That said, I at least would like to paint thumbnails for the various candidates and what I see is their initial strengths and weaknesses.


Yeah, I need more depth in order to come to a decision. Some posts are too cursory for me. And they're all "why you should vote for my guy" instead of giving both sides and then saying why the pros outweigh the cons, though I understand no one does that on internet forums. I tried to give some pros and cons but it didn't take. Which is why it seems it's up to me to scrutinize candidates—and ask questions the answer to which can't be found in numbers—in order to get the information I need from the advocates, but it's like pulling teeth.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #4 

Post#269 » by An Unbiased Fan » Sun Jul 6, 2014 11:40 pm

colts18 wrote:
An Unbiased Fan wrote:Lebron doesn't have the career value yet to pass any of these guys, but I think by the next list he'll be much higher. Lebron's boxscore to team impact ratio seems off too. he's had 7 contending teams since his prime started in 2009, yet got just 2 rings in that span(good, but not better than the others listed), and his teams lost to inferior opponents 3 out of the 7 years.


Where do you get 7 contending teams from? What are the 3 inferior opponents that LeBron lost too?


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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #4 

Post#270 » by magicmerl » Sun Jul 6, 2014 11:46 pm

ThaRegul8r wrote:I tried to give some pros and cons but it didn't take. Which is why it seems it's up to me to scrutinize candidates—and ask questions the answer to which can't be found in numbers—in order to get the information I need from the advocates, but it's like pulling teeth.

I'd like to have that kind of discussion too, but quite frankly it's hard enough as it is to keep on top of just the 'superficial' posts that we're getting currently.

How can anybody realistically have in-depth posts in this format? It seems like most of the more detailed posts are content that people have been stockpiling and bringing out now. That's not the case for me, I'm writing my posts in realtime.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #4 

Post#271 » by ceiling raiser » Sun Jul 6, 2014 11:46 pm

RayBan-Sematra wrote:I can believe that Wilt faced swarming defenses in the early 60's but in all honesty so did guys like Jordan, Shaq & even Kareem over more of their careers.
Those guys also had to deal with constant double & triple teams and were still expected to remain efficient offensively.

I agree that those guys saw plenty of double-/triple-teams, so did Wilt over the course of his career. I really desperately wish I had a good file full of quotes on Wilt (don't have all that much on him yet), but I've seen sentiments reflected on the matter numerous times.

The thing is though, shooters with any legitimate range simply seemed not to exist back then. You had a few guys like Dolph Schayes and I believe Arizin, at the beginning of Wilt's career, but by and large players back then seemed not to have any range. This was particularly bad when Wilt played in San Francisco (though it was the case in Philly outside of Arizin as well), and it was a huge problem, especially in the playoffs when you have a guy (Russell) taking away the dunk/layup from your teammates. A complete lack of spacing to this degree wasn't an issue for Jordan/Shaq/Kareem.

Jordan and Kareem could both convert from outside of the paint. Obviously they were both tremendous finishers, but each was extremely effective from midrange. MJ because of his jumper, Kareem because of his skyhook. Shaq faced a ton of coverage and still converted because of his commitment to the power game. One of my main criticisms of Wilt, as I've said numerous times in this thread, is that his fadeaway and finger roll were lousy shots. I don't think he'd shy away from them even in today's game, and that's part of the reason why MJ and Kareem are superior offensive players in my opinion.

I am sure they also had years and I know they had playoff series where their shooters weren't showing up but it didn't prevent them from remaining efficient and effective individually.

As Mr. Westside noted earlier in the thread, a lot of this is evident in the tape. I understand completely where you're coming from, and the same thing happened to Wilt in 66. His teammates couldn't buy a shot.

Plus Wilt's average offensive efficiency even in the late 60's/early 70's (when he had good teams/shooters) wasn't exactly stellar considering the average volume at which he was scoring.
This consistent trend of Wilt not consistently being efficient at various points of his career and in different roles leads me to believe that his halfcourt offense wasn't exactly on the GOAT level.

I'm not sure if his halfcourt offense was on a GOAT level, but I think we have to be careful here in order to remain consistent. Is the issue with Wilt's FG% or TS% numbers in the halfcourt? If it's the former, I'd have to see the numbers (again though, I'm forming my opinion on him largely based on his play from 63-64 through 68-69). If it's TS%, I don't have a problem either, but I don't think we can attribute that his halfcourt offense. Maybe scoring efficiency overall, but not halfcourt offense.

Also even assuming defenses could swarm Wilt more easily back then due to a lack of spacing/shooters there are also other factors in his favor.
The lanes weren't widened until the mid 60's (this is a plus for post scorers)

The lanes were widened prior to 64-65, which was also his first season with great shooters. It would be a plus, but if you're being swarmed prior to the attempt, it's going to be a problem whether you're 6 feet (prior to the move) or 8 feet (after the move) from the basket.

defensive schemes were less advanced, C competition wasn't very good in the early 60's and wings/guards were less athletic back then presumably making them less effective at help defense in comparison to future guards.

Defensive schemes being less advanced isn't a huge deal to me with regards to this situation because a low-post isolation-heavy offense is predictable. If the ball is going inside, regardless of whether schemes have been more sophisticated defensively, if your supporting cast can't hit shots, they're going to swarm you. Disagree about C competition, since I'm talking about the playoffs for the most part (where he'd face Russell 8 out of 10 years in his prime). Less athletic wings/guards would be a big deal, but again, a low post isolation-heavy offense is very predictable. As long as you have bodies swarming the guy, athleticism isn't a huge deal. Since there was no thread of a three anyway, defenders had less distance to cover to reach the block where Wilt was set up, since they wouldn't be defending players camping beyond the arc. :wink:
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #4 

Post#272 » by E-Balla » Sun Jul 6, 2014 11:58 pm

ThaRegul8r wrote:
drza wrote:This was an interesting turning point in the project, as apparently there was a consensus top-3 and then an explosion of others. A lot of interesting cases can (and have) been made, but I actually fear that the numbers of worthy candidates makes it impossible to give every candidate their just due. Whereas we hit Kareem's and Russell's cases in thorough depth, it feels like we've gone a bit more superficial in this thread. And again, I can understand why...you just can't go max depth on so many players at once. I missed the first day of posting, and which kind of makes me feel like I lost contact with the thread. It appears that Wilt has the sure momentum here. That said, I at least would like to paint thumbnails for the various candidates and what I see is their initial strengths and weaknesses.


Yeah, I need more depth in order to come to a decision. Some posts are too cursory for me. And they're all "why you should vote for my guy" instead of giving both sides and then saying why the pros outweigh the cons, though I understand no one does that on internet forums. I tried to give some pros and cons but it didn't take. Which is why it seems it's up to me to scrutinize candidates—and ask questions the answer to which can't be found in numbers—in order to get the information I need from the advocates, but it's like pulling teeth.

Well since I'm usually pressed for time I find it easier to state my points and leave it open to counter arguments I can use to go deeper in my analysis. I will leave a giant Hakeem/Magic/Duncan/Shaq post though.

My biggest issue with this thread is I don't really see anyone explaining why Wilt should get this spot despite his obvious weaknesses. Instead I see a focus on the positive a and a few posters going into his on/off splits but not many posters.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #4 

Post#273 » by microfib4thewin » Mon Jul 7, 2014 12:23 am

Just finished reading this: http://grantland.com/features/an-oral-h ... n-rockets/

On how tough Fitch was to his players:
Spoiler:
Dawson: He was a drill sergeant type of guy. He was demanding, but fair. He was a coach 24 hours a day. We’d go play a game. We’d go to his room. We’d get the film out. Sometimes, we’d both fall asleep at four in the morning, watching film.

McCallum: The writers were in Houston playing pickup. Fitch was out there watching us, a bunch of **** reporters. That was sort of his life. He would just sit there and watch a pickup reporter basketball game.

Hank McDowell (forward, Rockets): There was a seat on the plane that no one wanted to sit in — next to Bill. You didn’t want to be the last one onto the plane because you knew what seat was there.

Jim Petersen (forward, Rockets): You didn’t want to be last. That meant you were going to have to sit through a litany of basketball philosophy.

Blinebury: Guys would run suicides and throw up over the sidelines. Bill would be chuckling. But they don’t get to the Finals, they don’t beat the Lakers, they don’t play the Celtics without Fitch.

Craig Ehlo (Rockets guard): He was called “Captain Video” for a reason. We practiced for two hours and then watched film for two hours.

Petersen: He was really ahead of his time. No one wanted to sit through those long video sessions. We’re talking about the mid-’80s when remote controls and VCRs were still new and you can’t really pinpoint play sets. He would need to rewind one play and would have his finger on the rewind button for one play, and it would rewind 10 plays. We’d have to sit through the same 10 plays again and he would sit through them like he hadn’t seen them before. We’d go, “Oh no. He has his finger on the rewind button again. Why couldn’t he have it on the fast-forward button?” He would literally talk about the same damn plays like they were brand-new sets.


On the disrespect that Fitch had for Samspon as a finesse player:
Spoiler:
McCallum: Ralph was not enough of the run-through-the-wall type of guy to suit Fitch.

Reid: Ralph would complain and he didn’t realize, “This ain’t college here no more, homeboy. Ain’t nobody here to love you. This is business now.”

Blinebury: They are completely burned out from all these grueling practices. [As a rookie] Ralph went to Fitch and tells him that.

Sampson: My only goal was Elvin Hayes needed some minutes to get 50,000 and get a bonus in his contract. You weren’t playing to win at that point in time. You’re trying to get a draft pick, which we did. So I just voiced my opinion.

Blinebury: Fitch tells him, “You don’t know what the hell you are talking about. Get out of here.” Ralph comes to us in the media and expresses this to the beat guys. Fitch makes him read the newspaper article in the locker room.

Sampson: I had to read it in front of my teammates, which was fine.

Reid: Ralph is reading it and he’s reading it kind of slow. “And … we … need … to … understand … that … I … just … feel … we … have … too … long … of … practices.” Rodney hits me and he says, “Yo, this is an English major reading like this?” If I had a soda and was drinking it, it would have come out my nostrils.

Blinebury: It pretty much just embarrassed him.

McCallum: I went out to do a story on them [in 1986]. The first part was on how good Olajuwon was. The second half was how much Fitch was pissed at Ralph. I wrote the story and saw Olajuwon a couple weeks later — he stops me and has the second half of the story with circles around all the stuff Fitch said. And he goes, “I talked to you a long time. You didn’t even write anything about me. All you did was write about how much Coach Fitch hates Ralph.” He only had like half the story. I said, “Hakeem, the story doesn’t begin in the middle of a sentence.” Ralph must have given it to him. Ralph was all pissed off at Fitch.


On the defense with the twin towers:
Spoiler:
Dawson: You could not score in the paint against us. With those two guys, we controlled the paint as well as anyone I had seen in a long time.

Petersen: I tried getting a shot off on Dream one time [in practice] and he smacked it against the backboard. Rodney McCray looked at me and said, “Hey, Pete — you’re going to have to take it to another level.”

Reid: The late, great Dennis Johnson, one time he brought the ball up to half court and I opened up the gate. He said, “Reid, what are you doing? You ain’t going to play no defense?” I said, “Look down there. Do you feel lucky?” He cussed me out.

Lewis Lloyd (guard, Rockets): Playing on defense, I used to let a lot of guys go down there. “Go ahead.” I used to tell Hakeem and Ralph that, “If I let them go, block that to me and if y’all keep coming, I’ll throw it back to you. If not, I’m slamming it myself.”

Rudy Tomjanovich (Rockets assistant coach): Lloyd was a tremendous, special player.12 He had these big, strong thighs and an unorthodox way he played. There was no seam between two guys he couldn’t get through with his body.13 [Mitchell] Wiggins was a tough guy. He loved to play defense. He loved to attack those offensive boards.

Allen Leavell (guard, Rockets): They were both amazing. Good rebounders, played good defense. Lew was a flat-out scorer. Mitchell could shoot the ball. He never got credit for it.


On John Lucas' importance with the team and his absence in the 1986 playoffs to get himself cleaned:
Spoiler:
Petersen: John [Lucas] was kicked off the team my rookie year for cocaine abuse [in '84-'85]. We were in Oakland and we had to fly to Seattle. John was supposed to meet us in the bus to go to the airport and never made it. John had a relapse.

McDowell: I can remember sitting on the bus in Oakland looking at the hotel door, saying, “Come on, John. Come on out. Come on out.” The bus pulled away and that was the end of John Lucas at that point.

Bob Ryan, (columnist, Boston Globe): John Lucas is a forgotten point guard who in the short term was extremely good. I remember writing about him in terms of the substance abuse and how scary it was and how powerful it must be for a guy that bright with two degrees to succumb to the power of drugs. If it weren’t for the drug thing, there’s no doubt in my mind that he could have put together a Hall of Fame résumé. We’ll never know what he could have accomplished. That’s the sad part.

Petersen: Bill brings [Lucas] back in ’86. Bill has a big heart and he loved Lucas.

Ehlo: John was playing unbelievable. He was a guy that could go for 20 and 10 each and every night. He was the perfect leader for Olajuwon and Sampson because he distributed the ball pretty evenly between them.

Blinebury: With Lucas, there was no question [of him relapsing]. Lucas was completely out of control.

Reid: Coach Fitch called a meeting. He said, “We can do two things. We can keep John and make sure he stays clean and finishes the season. Or we can let John go and let him go into the clinic, get helped.” Me and [Allen] Leavell, by this time, we’re the two senior players. We put our hands up and say he’s got to get help. These young kids are saying, “Man, you are only saying that because you want his spot.” I said, “No, I don’t want to see him dead.”

Ehlo: We were all selfish at that point. We were going to play for a championship. We were all thinking that John had been the leader of the team and had proven himself every night.

Leavell: We talked and said he might be looking at something more than just a suspension from basketball. It was important to get his self together.

Fitch: John, God bless him, we caught him early enough. I caught enough heat for knocking him out, but I still think John would have been worse off if I hadn’t cut him when I did cut him from playing.

John Lucas (guard, Rockets): Bill Fitch saved my life. He was the one coach that told me that enough was enough.


On the players' and the coaches' reaction to the 1986 Rockets-Lakers series:
Spoiler:
The Showtime Lakers owned the Western Conference in the 1980s. With Magic, Kareem, Worthy, and coach Pat Riley, they won three NBA titles and four straight conference titles. As Worthy enjoyed his best all-around season, some wondered if the ’86 Lakers were their best team ever. NBA fans salivated at the prospect of a third straight Finals between the Lakers and Celtics. After the young Rockets lost Game 1 in Los Angeles, everyone wrote them off.

Ehlo: We stole one from them, then we went home and won our two. We went back there with a 3-1 lead.

Reid: We were just dominating them.

Heisler: Hakeem was so incredible athletically, and he was after the ball all the time. They couldn’t keep him off the boards. He was a little too athletic and young for Kareem at that point.

Kurt Rambis (forward, Lakers): Hakeem had a tremendous amount of offensive plays. We didn’t feel like we could stop everything. We just wanted to get him to do turnaround shots. That would eliminate a lot of what he wanted to do and prevent him from getting his own offensive rebounds.

Lloyd: All of them talked trash. It was like a war basically. Magic and them were intense. They were ripping and running. They had a great team. They stayed together for eight or nine years. That’s why they were so good.

Lloyd: Kareem used to kill Ralph. He used to get 40 on him every time. Me and Hakeem would sit next to each other on the plane. I said, “Y’all can’t do nothing with the veteran, big fella. He’s just killing y’all. Y’all haven’t even arrived yet.” So during the series, I guess I got under their skin. They started blocking Kareem’s hook. They were smacking his stuff all around. I guess it paid off. They did the job on Kareem in that series.

Jerry West (general manager, Lakers): I thought we lost our mentality about our best way to play — be really aggressive, run the ball up and down the court. Obviously their size had something to do with that. Olajuwon created so many different problems in terms of his skill and his enormous desire to compete and excel. And they had a team that fit nicely around him.

McCray: They were playing well. We were hanging around. Stay close on the road and in the fourth quarter anything can happen.

Lloyd: I remember stepping to Michael Cooper at the beginning of the game. We were going up and down the court and Magic kept pulling on my trunks. He did it like four or five times. I said if he did it again, I was going to stick him real good. Then he went out of the game and Cooper came in the game and Cooper started doing the same thing. When they called a timeout, I stepped to Cooper and said, “This is my house. We’re getting ready to run y’all off the court.”



On Sampson's miraculous shot that sent the Rockets to the Finals:
Spoiler:
Leavell: I was just lucky enough to get the ball and call a timeout before time ran out.

Dawson: You never knew in those days if it was a full second or how much time was on. It could have just been a tenth of a second.

Reid: Coach wanted Rodney to throw the inbounds. Ralph was going to come down, screen Allen, and Allen was going to take the shot.

McCray: I’m trying to get the referee to hurry up and give me the ball before the Lakers figure out that the defense they were in would basically allow me a direct line into Ralph.

Kersey: He was yelling, “Hurry up, hurry up.”

McCray: Worthy was in limbo. He was asking Coach Riley, “Do you want me on the ball? Do you want me to go back into Ralph’s lap?” They were in a little bit of a frenzy.

Worthy: It was a state of confusion — for about a second, I was in no-man’s land. I was nowhere. I look back at that kind of like I do that ’84 pass to [Gerald] Henderson23 — there’s a couple of seconds I wish I could take back. Looking back, I wish I could have at least put more pressure on the passer. Maybe he wouldn’t have gotten that pass to Ralph so easily.

Blinebury: Kareem is backing off because he’s trying not to commit a foul and send somebody to the foul line. Worthy is kind of frozen.

McCray: Once the referee gave me the ball, I just threw a direct pass to [Ralph].

Sampson: I knew I was above the box. I got position and turned. I just wanted to get it directed toward the rim. I couldn’t come down with the ball. I had to turn and shoot it.

McDowell: He’s literally on his toes by the time the ball gets there and spinning and throwing it over his shoulder. He wasn’t even close to squaring up. Maybe his right shoulder was facing the basket.

Rambis: It was just kind of a bull type of shot, like, “There’s no way this is going to happen” kind of thing prior to it happening.

Sampson: It hit the front, the back, and dropped in.

Worthy: I don’t know if anyone else other than Ralph could catch and turn and twist it up and knock it down.

West: He could shoot that 100 times and never make that again. But good fortune is what makes sports. It was the shot that everyone remembers, but it certainly wasn’t the shot that decided that playoff.

McCray: During practice, we’ve seen him shoot crazy shots before. My first initial thing after the game was to say, “Hey, you finally got one of those shots to go in.”

Leavell: If he shot that 500,000 more times, he probably wouldn’t hit it again.

Sampson: Every kid in the world wants the ball in the last three seconds and practices just throwing the ball at the basket. Rodney will tell you that it wasn’t my shot, it was his pass. So I give him all the credit.

Dawson: I was afraid [Mitchell] Wiggins was going to touch the ball on the rim. Wiggins jumped at it but he didn’t touch it.

McDowell: When it dropped through, boom. You propel off the bench and that arena was so quiet.

Dawson: That idiot in the white jacket running out there is me. I didn’t know what to do. I was running around looking for somebody to grab.

Lloyd: I almost touched the scoreboard, I jumped so high. That was one of the happiest days of my life, dethroning the world champions.

Green: I was as paralyzed as Michael Cooper was.

McDowell: I can still see Cooper lying on the floor in the lane.

Lloyd: I seen [Cooper] lying on the ground. Him and Magic were talking all that mess about how they were going to take it one game at a time and they were going to come back. They were blown away. They could have never imagined how we dethroned them like that.

Green: Everything within you, in all measurements of your fanhood, persona, basketball psyche, and knowledge from a fan to a player says, “No way.”

Tomjanovich: We were watching the play [in the locker room] and once Ralph shot the ball, Hakeem started moving and bouncing around. When it went in, his feet were moving so fast, he had no traction. We were sort of running around, whooping and hollering. But if you’ve seen a dog on marble or linoleum, it was like that. He was just so glad we didn’t lose this game with him in the locker room.

Olajuwon: I remember when everybody was running toward the locker room, I ran out to meet everybody. We’re in celebration. Nobody ever mentioned I did anything stupid.

Pat Riley (coach, Lakers): Bill Fitch tapped me on the shoulder and said, “Tough way to lose.” I was tremendously disappointed. Sampson’s funky shot raised a question for the Lakers and for me. How were we going to deal with losing?


Thoughts on the Boston-Houston Finals:
Spoiler:
Sichting: As a Celtic, we were a little bit surprised and a little bit disappointed that we weren’t playing the Lakers. It was my first year, but the guys who had lost the year before really wanted to play the Lakers. We beat them both times in the regular season.

Robert Parish (center, Celtics): I was disappointed. I wanted to redeem ourselves [against the Lakers after the '85 Finals], but it didn’t work out that way. It was the Rockets’ time, obviously.

Olajuwon: I have great respect for that team. If you want to put an ideal basketball team together, that would be the team. A basketball team is supposed to be big. They had a big front line. And they’re very smart. They don’t waste opportunities. If you take a bad shot, they’re going to capitalize.

Lloyd: You talk about our Twin Towers. They had Kevin McHale,26 Robert Parish, Bill Walton. Big, big, huge guys.

Fitch: I recognized an awful lot of the plays they ran against us. In fact, I was tempted to go down to their bench every once in a while during a timeout and tell them they were messing up one of them. I figured Bird would probably kick me out.27

Sichting: Fitch was the only other X factor. A lot of guys liked him. They respected him. They kind of quit on him his last year there, I think. They all were respectful of what he did, but since we weren’t playing the Lakers, that added more motivation to win.

Parish: I have a great deal of respect for Coach Fitch. When we won the championship in ’81, he was the main reason why we won. We were down and he never let us doubt ourselves.

Fitch: I knew Bird as well as I knew any player. But that doesn’t mean you’re going to stop him.28

Olajuwon: I was a shot blocker jumping three or four times in the air and they are passing the ball three times before they shoot a basket. How many times am I going to do that before it’s the fourth quarter and I’m tired? A shot that I would normally block from some players, they dish it off. You’re just jumping all over the place.

Parish: The Rockets never gave up. They were in each game. I definitely had more respect for them after the series.

Lucas: It was really tough for me — we just didn’t have enough movement and versatility at point guard.

Reid: I was good at point guard, but I wasn’t getting those 12 assists that Lucas [could get] easily with us and still get his 12 points. I got us into our offense. I wasn’t Magic. I could lead the break, but not at a shifty level.

Blinebury: They missed Lucas. It finally caught up to them. They needed him to settle them down and set the break. They just looked like they had finally gotten a little bit over their heads.

Ryan: Game 4 was the best NBA Finals game in the previous 10 years. It was one of those high-level games and the deciding thing in the game, from the Celtics’ point of view, was it was the only time all season that [Boston coach] K.C. Jones let Walton finish the game instead of Robert Parish. He went on a whim and Walton came up with two offensive rebounds and a couple of great finishes to end the game.

Olajuwon: Walton, I remember clearly, he made a basket that I touched. That was the deciding basket. Walton was such a smart player. He kept the ball up. That’s what experience is. Normally, I would block that shot from a lot of people. But with him, I touched it and it still went in. That game was most painful to me.

Dawson: That was in our place. You remember the ones that hurt more.


On Sampson's fight with Sichting and his disappointing performance in game 6 as he became Boston's #1 public enemy:
Spoiler:
Parish: I couldn’t believe, of all people on the court, an altercation broke out between those two.

Danny Ainge (guard, Celtics): We [would] run a play where we set back picks on the free throw shooters to try and advance the ball down the court. After Ralph shot his free throw, throughout the series, we would have a guard screen him. Finally, I think he just got really frustrated and threw an elbow and the next thing you know, there’s a brawl going on.

Sichting: I was kind of shocked the whole thing happened. I was used to taking shots from big guys. When you’re small, you’re always going to get knocked down, have hard picks set on you, and all those types of things. We came down on a break and [Sampson] actually put his forearm down and hit me in the back of the neck because I went over to try and block him out. I wasn’t on the ball. I just tried to go over and got into his legs.

Leavell: I don’t believe that. Every time he went through a screen, he gave a little bump. Ralph just got fed up.

McCray: Big men, we don’t like short men — whether they’re boxing us out or being pesky, because they’re so low to the ground. Something had to precede that in order for something like that to happen during the course of the game.

Parish: Jerry is not known to be a dirty player or somebody that’s going to provoke the outburst that happened.

Sampson: Whatever tactics were used at that point of time were used. It’s the Finals.

Sichting: He hit me. They blew the whistle and called a foul. I turned, I kind of had both hands up, saying, “What are you doing?” because he just whacked me and then he just punched. Then, it just got crazy.

Parish: You have two mild-mannered personalities and it escalates to the level it escalates to … I was shocked.

Reid: He’s swinging — at 7-foot-4 — at a 6-foot-1 guard like he’s Joe Frazier.

Reid: It’s a different atmosphere when you got Boston fans really pinpointing you. When they’re after the team, it’s one thing. But when they’re attacking one guy and then when we land to go up to the gate, we had to go to the tarmac because of a bomb threat. Then we get to the hotel, another bomb threat, and that starts to get in your mind. What’s these fools doing?

Blinebury: [Sampson] just shrank when they went back up there. He just faded away. The Boston fans got on him and he was intimidated.

McCallum: We show up there and Boston Garden is like 900 degrees and they go out and somebody has hung up a noose with a message to Ralph Sampson.

Sam Vincent (guard, Celtics): That was probably as loud as I’ve ever heard anything.

Ryan: The crowd was all over Ralph. He was public enemy number one at that point and he could not handle the pressure at all.

Sampson: It didn’t affect me at all.

Ryan: It was on the list of top-five Bird games. It was my personal favorite of all. If you go look at that tape, you will see a man play as good of an all-around game that is seemingly possible to play.

Petersen: Larry was fearless out there and so supremely confident. He was cold-blooded. That whole team had a swagger.

McCallum: Hakeem was playing so well that game. Without him, Houston would have lost by 70.

Worthy: It’s almost like [Houston's] goal was to beat the Lakers. When they got into the series against Boston, they just seemed to lose their composure a little bit. It’s just like in ’84, Boston kind of took us off our tracks with their physical play. I don’t think they were ready for that. They didn’t have anybody on that team that really had that experience, other than the coach himself. Sampson was just totally distracted. They could just never find their game.


Afterwards it also talked about the effect the anti-drug program had on the Rockets, Parish's tragic finish to his career as well as other teams trying to mimic the Twin Tower combo. While this did gain more sympathy points for Hakeem I still have him at the 9th and 10th spot. I will see if there are other Hakeem articles worth quoting.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #4 

Post#274 » by RayBan-Sematra » Mon Jul 7, 2014 12:35 am

fpliii wrote:I'm not sure if his halfcourt offense was on a GOAT level, but I think we have to be careful here in order to remain consistent. Is the issue with Wilt's FG% or TS% numbers in the halfcourt? If it's the former, I'd have to see the numbers (again though, I'm forming my opinion on him largely based on his play from 63-64 through 68-69). If it's TS%, I don't have a problem either, but I don't think we can attribute that his halfcourt offense. Maybe scoring efficiency overall, but not halfcourt offense.


The problem is really his offensive effiency in general but I do think his FG% was also potentially an issue.
From 60-66 his average FG% in the playoffs was 50%.
That isn't bad for a decent FT shooter but it is bad for a power C who is only shooting around 41-55% from the line.
Only in 64 & 65 did he shoot a better percentage from the field which gave him a decent overall TS%.

67 he was great.

Then from 68-69 his playoff FG% rose to around 54% but that isn't really good for a power C who is only averaging 16-17ppg (p42).
Plus he was exceptionally poor from the line those two years (38%) which made his FG% an even bigger issue.

So the main issue to me is simply his offensive effiency.
In his 14 year career he only had 5 playoff runs where his average offensive effiency was good in an All-Time sense and in 2 of those 5 runs he was an extremely low volume scorer (72-73).

That is pretty bad compared to Shaq who had good offensive effieincy in 12 of his first 14 years (in the playoffs).
Shaq = 12/14
Wilt = 5/14 (or 3/14 if you discount his final two extremely low volume years)
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #4 

Post#275 » by ElGee » Mon Jul 7, 2014 12:48 am

Dipper 13 wrote:
His team defenses were often meh, and the RAPM data we have for him in the late 90s doesn't show a sustained defensive dominance the way we see with Ribinson, Garnett deep into their post-peak career.


He was already in decline. Below we can see his presumed defensive value over a 58 game sample (50 of them being playoff games) from 1993-95. And this may not even be his defensive peak.


viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1330591

On Court DRtg: 103.0

Off Court DRtg: 134.5

Net DRtg: -31.5


These numbers are incredible. So incredible that I wonder if there is some selection bias with what games we have available to sample (or some human error on your part). I'm not saying I won't accept them, I'm just noticing that all of these old samples have ridiculous on/off differences. Am I off base here? Do you have a summary of all your tracked on-offs?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #4 

Post#276 » by DQuinn1575 » Mon Jul 7, 2014 12:53 am

RayBan-Sematra wrote:From 60-66 his average FG% in the playoffs was 50%.
That isn't bad for a decent FT shooter but it is bad for a power C who is only shooting around 41-55% from the line.


You're missing the point - 50% was great - In 1965 the record for FG% was 52.8% - he was shooting close to the season record each year and people are saying it is bad.

Minimum 40 fgm
1960 -1st
1961 -4th
1962 -2nd
1963 na
1964 1st
1965 1st
1966 1st
1967 1st
1968 4th
1969 1st
1970 2nd
1971 19th
1972 1st
1973 1st

so, in 13 years he was 1st 8 times, 2 2nd, 2 4th, and one bad

That's 12 out of 13 times when he was in top 4 of fg%
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #4 

Post#277 » by Baller2014 » Mon Jul 7, 2014 12:55 am

Pretty shocking Wilt has gotten in. Next vote is going to be a 4 way bloodbath though. I guess I'll get back to the Duncan drawing board there with more support.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #4 

Post#278 » by ElGee » Mon Jul 7, 2014 12:57 am

SRS and WOWY data for what I imagine are the next 7 players (excluding LeBron).

Reading from left to right, you'll see the player, the team (including PS or not), the number of games missed, SRS in the lineup, SRS difference when in the lineup, Expected Wins when in the lineup and the change in expected wins in the lineup. The final column includes any notes or controls. e.g. Parker In (66) means the in/out is for only the 66 games Tony Parker played in.

Wilt's teams:
Image

Wilt-related WOWY
Image

Shaq-related WOWY
Image

Bird-related WOWY
Image

Magic-related WOWY
Image

Garnett-related WOWY
Image

Hakeem-related WOWY
Image

Duncan-related WOWY
Image
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #4 

Post#279 » by ceiling raiser » Mon Jul 7, 2014 12:57 am

RayBan-Sematra wrote:The problem is really his offensive effiency in general but I do think his FG% was also potentially an issue.
From 60-66 his average FG% in the playoffs was 50%.
That isn't bad for a decent FT shooter but it is bad for a power C who is only shooting around 41-55% from the line.
Only in 64 & 65 did he shoot a better percentage from the field which gave him a decent overall TS%.

67 he was great.

Then from 68-69 his playoff FG% rose to around 54% but that isn't really good for a power C who is only averaging 16-17ppg (p42).
Plus he was exceptionally poor from the line those two years (38%) which made his FG% an even bigger issue.

So the main issue to me is simply his offensive effiency.
In his 14 year career he only had 5 playoff runs where his average offensive effiency was good in an All-Time sense and in 2 of those 5 runs he was an extremely low volume scorer (72-73).

That is pretty bad compared to Shaq who had good offensive effieincy in 12 of his first 14 years (in the playoffs).
Shaq = 12/14
Wilt = 5/14 (or 3/14 if you discount his final two extremely low volume years)

I can understand where you're coming from here. A few notes:

1) 60-64 it's hard for me to place too much weight on FG% and TS% because of the spacing issue. Even when Shaq had relatively poor supporting casts, it wasn't an issue of the three not existing, or not having players on his roster who could spread the floor.
2) Throughout Wilt's career, there was an additional factor of a penalty FT that artificially inflates TSA, which is the denominator in TS%. It's not a huge issue in Wilt's career through 66, but in 67, the foul limit went from six fouls to five fouls. I posted about it here:

viewtopic.php?f=344&t=1277741

but basically, Wilt's TS% in those seasons is actually higher because of his poor FT%. Not a tremendous difference, but one of 1%-2% for those years, which makes his TS% not look as bad.
3) We don't have very many numbers to judge Wilt on in terms of offensive efficiency. ORB% and TOV% don't exist because ORBs and TOVs weren't recorded back then.

I don't think we have a very good idea of how efficient Wilt was offensively in general. As I've said before in this thread, the finger roll and fadeaway were in general lousy shots. lorak had this thread which forces one to think about his efficiency in different areas of the floor:

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1303579

Now, since then I've found two quotes suggesting that Wilt took more fadeaways:

SLAM: Who was the toughest center for you to guard?
NT: Kareem had more of a repertoire and was harder to stop. He had a little more versatility when he set up on the floor. Wilt liked the left side, but Jabbar set up on either side. Wilt would rely on the fade-away 70 percent of time; Kareem’s hook was in the same range. I couldn’t stop him from shooting the hook; I could make him take awkward hooks or baseline jumpers. You really couldn’t keep Wilt from taking the fade-away, but you could try to him shoot it a step further out. He was a great fade-away shooter. If you got in close, and he had you out of position, then you could foul him and save yourself one point.


source: http://www.slamonline.com/nba/original- ... defense/2/

“Wilt was a giant. But 60 percent of his points came on fadeaways. He was a powerful man who didn't always play that way,” said Thurmond, who does community-relations work for the Warriors and owns a barbecue restaurant in San Francisco.


source: https://www.toledoblade.com/Opinion/200 ... -Wilt.html

even if Nate is exaggerating slightly, it seems he took the outside shot more than we'd expect.

I wish we had more games to watch. Dipper 13 did some great analysis on prime/peak Shaq's, Kareeem's, and Hakeem's scoring (including shot charts and Synergy breakdowns):

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1291923

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1253571

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1330591

all based on sizable samples.
Now that's the difference between first and last place.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #4 

Post#280 » by ThaRegul8r » Mon Jul 7, 2014 1:01 am

So, with the questions I have about some players, I thought I'd take a look at the criteria I'd listed in the past:


ThaRegul8r wrote:I don't have an all-time list; I haven't done anything more than rank two players relative to each other. But:

ThaRegul8r wrote:I suppose if I were to write it down it would look something along the lines of:

1) the ability to integrate oneself and whatever respective abilities one brings to the table with the rest of the players on one's team in order to enhance the whole for the facilitation of the ultimate objective of winning, and the dedication to employ these abilities for the effectuation of said purpose.
2) the ability to both identify what the team needs at any given moment in order to realize the ultimate objective of winning and provide it.
3) possession of the rational self-interest to put aside ego in order to do #1, and #2, disregarding the opinions of irrelevant others who are not on the team and so have no effect on the team's success.
4) the ability to block out distractions and anything irrelevant to the maximization of the team's chances of victory.
5) the ability to raise one's game during big games and crucial moments in order to bring about the ultimate objective of winning, and the mental fortitude to do so.

I'll think to see if I've missed anything I consider relevant, or whether any of the criterion needs further refinement.


ThaRegul8r wrote:How much they help their team win.

That's the only thing I care about. I couldn't care less about stats, as they're team-dependent, which few people seem to realize. And doing what your team needs to win may require sacrificing individual stats. A player is not lowered in my evaluation for putting the needs of the team above his own stats. On the contrary, it shows he has the right priority.

Rings are only relevant so far as the player's contribution to his team winning the title that year. For instance, Mitch Richmond has a ring, but he made no contribution to it. His presence was irrelevant as far as his team winning the title that year, as he played all of four minutes that postseason. So the ring he won is just as irrelevant to me as he was to the Lakers that year. A ring means a player's team won it all, but I want to know what the player's contribution to that ring was. Richmond didn't contribute to his, so he gets no "boost" against a ringless player. I don't care about a player bandwagoning his way to a title. Just going along for the ride means nothing to me.

I don't care how a player helps his team win, I only care that he does it. I want him to use whatever skills he brings to the table to help his team win. Different players have different abilities, so the means employed will vary. I'm interested in results.

Since I'm only interested in how a player helps his team win, that means I'm looking at that player's performance. If that player has a poor performance and another player picks up the slack to help his team win, then that player doesn't get a boost for his teammate bailing him out.

Focusing on anything other than helping your team win lowers a player in my evaluation. Your job is to help your team win. That's it. Nothing else matters or is relevant. These players are grown men, and they make choices. They have the right to make whatever choice they want, but with action comes consequence. I will honor that choice and evaluate them on the basis of that choice, whether it's beneficial or detrimental to the team's chances of winning.

I don't need an award to tell me how much a player helped his team win. An example I often use is the 1970 NBA Finals. I don't need any award to tell me that Walt Frazier made the biggest contribution to help his team win, and I evaluate him accordingly. That he didn't win an award means nothing to me.

I believe that covers it, unless something comes to me later that I've missed.


I'm open to suggestions for refinement, as since I've never had a GOAT list, I never needed to think about it. By going by that, it seems—for me—that the candidates would then be Duncan, Magic, Bird. As Duncan's playing right now and is my favorite active player, I must be aware to avoid any bias from tainting the rankings.
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