aq_ua wrote:suicidedeuce wrote:aq_ua wrote:There is no high probability success rate strategy in the NBA. If there were one, everyone would be doing it and thus automatically make it less successful. There are only a few meaningful free agents in the NBA just as there are only a few impactful rookies in each draft. Nothing has proven otherwise, and it's silly to think that anyone has the right formula. The only question is how do you ensure that you can surround the superstar talent with a meaningful roster of role players when you're able to secure one, hopefully two. The inability to field a substantially talented group of role players was a large part of our downfall during the Ewing era and will likely be the same for the Melo era without meaningful cap space flexibility and rookie contracts. The path from signing Melo to a max and fielding a substantial enough roster of talent around him given our limited assets and Melo's age is murky at best and pretty much entirely depends on having major cap space next summer and an aforementioned rare meaningful free agent that wants to accept that cap space, while retaining adequate talent to surround the stars. There is no room for error under that plan, hence the possibility of being stuck under a massive deadweight unmovable Melo contracts in a few years is extremely unappealing.
All reasonably accurate.
There is no clear, easy path. Each path is fraught with obstacles and difficulties.
This is when I remind myself, when I'm trying to evaluate what is the more realistic, likely option, that the KNicks are ALSO a business and not just a 'championship or bust' contraption.
The KNicks are likely going to choose the path that will result is higher attendance, higher ratings, and more postseason how dates, since every alternative is flawed.
And I think Phil Jackson is here, not to help Dolan's bottom line, but to establish a winning team no matter what the cost. If that cost involves trading away Melo or letting him walk because he does not see a viable path to building a winning team around Melo with the assets we have, then I don't doubt that's what will happen. In terms of personal preference, I would love to see Melo come back at a sub-20mm per year contract and without the no-trade mumbo jumbo. Give Phil a chance to recruit talent with the cap space and give him some room for error if the timing doesn't work out. If Melo wants all his money and lock the Knicks into potential cap hell for years, by all means the door is right there and I will happily watch the Early/Hardaway show as our 2015 pick becomes a very valuable asset.
You might, but you represent the minority hardcore fan.
Again, the premise of this sub-thread of the fact that even of you're picking high in the lottery, finding a franchise piece to build around is unlikely, and once again, the Knicks don't have a 2016 pick.
People talk about $4m dollars give or take to Melo as its the difference between contending or not.
But that the KNicks don't have a 2016 pick seems to be overlooked.
Seriously, not having a 2016 pick isn't as big if not GREATER an impediment to rebuilding through the draft than giving Melo $22m as opposed to $18m is to building though free agency?
I've lost the throughline of the logic if we're not considering the lack of a 2016 pick as a MAJOR factor in one of those two alternatives.