RealGM Top 100 List #5

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#441 » by colts18 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 4:13 pm

Putting Magic and Shaq's offensive numbers into context. This is the average defense they faced in their primes:

PS Prime Avg. Opp Drtg ▾
Shaquille O’Neal 101.9
Kobe Bryant 102.6
Kevin Garnett 103.5
Dwyane Wade 103.7
Tim Duncan 103.7
Karl Malone 103.9
Steve Nash 103.9
Dirk Nowitzki 103.9
LeBron James 104.4
Michael Jordan 105
Larry Bird 105.5
Hakeem Olajuwon 105.8
Charles Barkley 105.8
David Robinson 106.5
Magic Johnson 106.7


Shaq faced the toughest playoff defenses for a modern star while Magic's opponents were the easiest. That's why Magic has an efficiency gap
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#442 » by Baller2014 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 4:17 pm

Prolly not going to be here when the time expires. I assume it'll be a run off between Shaq and Duncan. Currently Shaq on 12, Duncan on 9, Magic on 5, Hakeem on 3, Lebron on 2, Bird and KG on 1.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#443 » by Quotatious » Thu Jul 10, 2014 4:22 pm

Baller2014 wrote:Currently Shaq on 12

12? I've just finished counting votes (you can see the last post on the previous page), and got 11 votes for Shaq. Could you tell me who I'm missing? I'm asking because you may be right, and it may make a difference, with the Shaq/Duncan race being that close.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#444 » by Texas Chuck » Thu Jul 10, 2014 4:23 pm

shutupandjam wrote:
Obviously I did this to show that LeBron is at the very elite end of the combination of scoring and assisting. I could do a similar exercise with say, Stockton and assist rates, Jordan and scoring rates, or Rodman and rebound rates, but everyone already knows they basically stand alone in these categories. I don't think LeBron's similar prowess in ability to score and assist is common knowledge in the same way those things are.



I think pretty much everyone knows Lebron is a prolific offensive player both in terms of points and assists. I don't have an issue with you pointing that out, but when you choose an arbitrary cut off that has Lebron stand alone you lose at least a little credibility because its obviously what you are attempting to do.

I mean just take Larry Bird for instance whose career numbers are 24/6, adjust them down slightly per 36 or whatever but its obvious he also had a great combination of scoring and passing. Especially considering he had multiple seasons with numbers well surpassing both marks. Creating a list that shows Lebron celebrating an arbitrary achievement 9x while Bird does it once is attempting to suggest a magnitude of difference in this regard that simply does not exist.

I just think you could make your same point without attempting to skew the results.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#445 » by Baller2014 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 4:24 pm

Not noob voted for Shaq I believe.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#446 » by Texas Chuck » Thu Jul 10, 2014 4:25 pm

colts18 wrote:Putting Magic and Shaq's offensive numbers into context. This is the average defense they faced in their primes:

Spoiler:
PS Prime Avg. Opp Drtg ▾
Shaquille O’Neal 101.9
Kobe Bryant 102.6
Kevin Garnett 103.5
Dwyane Wade 103.7
Tim Duncan 103.7
Karl Malone 103.9
Steve Nash 103.9
Dirk Nowitzki 103.9
LeBron James 104.4
Michael Jordan 105
Larry Bird 105.5
Hakeem Olajuwon 105.8
Charles Barkley 105.8
David Robinson 106.5
Magic Johnson 106.7


Shaq faced the toughest playoff defenses for a modern star while Magic's opponents were the easiest. That's why Magic has an efficiency gap



Appreciate all the data you constantly provide and specifically here, but you are going to have to do more than provide that data to claim the conclusion you made because this data certainly doesn't proof that at all.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#447 » by lorak » Thu Jul 10, 2014 4:25 pm

colts18 wrote:Putting Magic and Shaq's offensive numbers into context. This is the average defense they faced in their primes:

PS Prime Avg. Opp Drtg ▾
Shaquille O’Neal 101.9
Kobe Bryant 102.6
Kevin Garnett 103.5
Dwyane Wade 103.7
Tim Duncan 103.7
Karl Malone 103.9
Steve Nash 103.9
Dirk Nowitzki 103.9
LeBron James 104.4
Michael Jordan 105
Larry Bird 105.5
Hakeem Olajuwon 105.8
Charles Barkley 105.8
David Robinson 106.5
Magic Johnson 106.7


Shaq faced the toughest playoff defenses for a modern star while Magic's opponents were the easiest. That's why Magic has an efficiency gap


Could you post the same, but with drtg relatively to league average?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#448 » by MisterHibachi » Thu Jul 10, 2014 4:26 pm

ardee wrote:
Jim Naismith wrote:
ardee wrote:Vote: Earvin Magic Johnson

This was between him and Duncan to me. I basically go with Magic here because I think from '85 to '91 he put up a consistent stretch of GOAT level basketball that Duncan never matched. As much as Duncan supporters rave about his '01 to '07 prime, he doesn't really have a consistent prime stretch. He was injured in 2005 and arguably outplayed by his own teammate in the Playoffs. 2006 he was a shadow of himself in the regular season.

Really, Duncan IMO has three, maybe four seasons that are on the same level as a prime Magic: 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2007.


How about LeBron '08-'14?

Why do you put Magic above LeBron?


My bad, should've discussed LeBron as well. I guess there hasn't been as much talk about him as there has about others in this thread.

I would probably vote LeBron next actually if Magic made it in this thread, above Duncan.

Magic vs LeBron comes down, to me, as two offensive players who affect the game in very differing ways. I'm not hating or making an unreasonable statement, but one has to admit that as great as he is, his teammates tend to see a drop in their individual performance. Now normally that doesn't matter because he's a GOAT candidate anyway.... But when you look at a guy like Magic, who in his prime can give you ridiculous production anyway, but yet also causes a clear uptick in his team-mates' production as well.

I think a better way to look at it would be the team results Magic and LeBron had as leaders of a unipolar offense. In 1990, Magic's cast consisted of an older James Worthy, Byron Scott and AC Green as his 2-3-4 options. Worthy is still a good player obviously, but the others... That's not really amazing. Magic produces a 114 ORtg for the Lakers, +6 over the LA... That's better than anything LeBron has approached, even with BETTER teammates at Miami.

I just think Magic's offense is more conducive to great team results.

It's close, like I said, I'd probably vote LeBron next (internal debate with Duncan still raging), but it's Magic for now.


Magic derives most of his value from offense but LeBron is one of the greatest two way players in the history of this league. If you think their offense comparable, even with an edge to Magic, that still leaves a chasm on the defensive end.

How are you factoring in the defense?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#449 » by Texas Chuck » Thu Jul 10, 2014 4:30 pm

I agree Lebron is superior to Magic defensively, but have we actually established Lebron as one of the great two-way players?

Im legit asking because I don't know. I certainly don't think of him in those terms. I know he's had a couple of really strong defensive seasons, but maybe he's been much better defensively throughout his career with me somehow being unaware of it?

Any help anyone could give me to help me better understand his defensive impact would be greatly appreciated. I think I may have Lebron too low on my rankings because I had him at 7 to start this(ahead of Wilt btw) so I have had Shaq/Duncan/Magic ahead of him but Im starting to think he deserves to move up. But I need to do more research on this.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#450 » by colts18 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 4:31 pm

lorak wrote:Could you post the same, but with drtg relatively to league average?

I'm not sure why that matters. If you face a league average 100 D rating defense, its harder to score on than a -5 defense in a league with an average of 107 D rating.

Here is the list by drtg relative to league average

PS Prime Avg. Opp Drtg Weighted Lg Avg. Diff
Kobe Bryant 102.6 105.8 -3.2
Dwyane Wade 103.7 106.8 -3.1
Shaquille O’Neal 101.9 104.9 -3
LeBron James 104.4 107.2 -2.8
Steve Nash 103.9 106.7 -2.8
Karl Malone 103.9 106.5 -2.5
Michael Jordan 105 107.4 -2.5
Dirk Nowitzki 103.9 106 -2.1
Charles Barkley 105.8 107.7 -1.9
Larry Bird 105.5 107.3 -1.8
Hakeem Olajuwon 105.8 107.4 -1.7
Kevin Garnett 103.5 104.9 -1.4
Tim Duncan 103.7 104.9 -1.1
David Robinson 106.5 107.5 -0.9
Magic Johnson 106.7 107.5 -0.8
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#451 » by Jaivl » Thu Jul 10, 2014 4:36 pm

colts18 wrote:
lorak wrote:Could you post the same, but with drtg relatively to league average?

I'm not sure why that matters. If you face a league average 100 D rating defense, its harder to score on than a -5 defense in a league with an average of 107 D rating.

Or maybe the league with 107 average DRating defenses had better offenses ;)
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#452 » by lorak » Thu Jul 10, 2014 4:44 pm

colts18 wrote:
lorak wrote:Could you post the same, but with drtg relatively to league average?

I'm not sure why that matters. If you face a league average 100 D rating defense, its harder to score on than a -5 defense in a league with an average of 107 D rating.



It matters because of different rules. Talent level also changes and besides even if league average ortg is 110 for example, we can't be sure it's so because offenses were so good, or because defenses so bad. 80s vs 00s is classic example: 00s look like defensive era (pre rules change in '05), but it is so maybe becaue pro defensive rules and lack of offensive talent? The same with 80s: looks like weak defensive era, but maybe it is so, because of a lot of talented offensive players?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#453 » by ardee » Thu Jul 10, 2014 4:59 pm

On factoring in defense in LeBron vs Magic, I am. But I personally think LeBron hasn't had enough years when he was the game changer on defense that he's being spoken of as.

2009 was the first year he was a real difference maker on that end. Thought he improved slightly in 2010 offensively but fell off defensively. 2011-12 he was great on that end both years. 2013 he was lacking effort in the regular season, turned it up only in the Playoffs. Same for 2014.

So I wouldn't call LeBron "one of the great two way players" because that makes him sound like Hakeem or KG, which he's not. He can play very effective and great defense but he doesn't always do it. When he does at his peak he's better than Magic but for their whole careers I think Magic is ahead by enough offensively (team results speak here) to make it not make a difference.

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#454 » by ardee » Thu Jul 10, 2014 5:01 pm

I'm also interested to see posts by KG voters on his Playoffs. The fact that he's being voted for by some implies one of two things:

1. KG was a better Playoff performer than someone of equal longevity like Duncan or Dirk or Shaq.

2. KG was such a better RS performer than these guys that the Playoff edge doesn't matter.

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#455 » by Colbinii » Thu Jul 10, 2014 5:03 pm

Chuck Texas wrote:I agree Lebron is superior to Magic defensively, but have we actually established Lebron as one of the great two-way players?

Im legit asking because I don't know. I certainly don't think of him in those terms. I know he's had a couple of really strong defensive seasons, but maybe he's been much better defensively throughout his career with me somehow being unaware of it?

Any help anyone could give me to help me better understand his defensive impact would be greatly appreciated. I think I may have Lebron too low on my rankings because I had him at 7 to start this(ahead of Wilt btw) so I have had Shaq/Duncan/Magic ahead of him but Im starting to think he deserves to move up. But I need to do more research on this.


I don't know if he is a great two way player, but I know he is a great offensive player and was a damn near great defender in his prime. Whether you call him a "great two way player" is up to you and an arbitrary terms like "Superstar", simply put, it's subjective.

If Duncan is a great two way player, than LeBron certainly is in my eyes.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#456 » by Colbinii » Thu Jul 10, 2014 5:08 pm

ardee wrote:2009 was the first year he was a real difference maker on that end. Thought he improved slightly in 2010 offensively but fell off defensively. 2011-12 he was great on that end both years. 2013 he was lacking effort in the regular season, turned it up only in the Playoffs. Same for 2014.

So I wouldn't call LeBron "one of the great two way players" because that makes him sound like Hakeem or KG, which he's not. He can play very effective and great defense but he doesn't always do it. When he does at his peak he's better than Magic but for their whole careers I think Magic is ahead by enough offensively (team results speak here) to make it not make a difference.


I agree with the first paragraph. LeBron has been slacking the last 2 years on defense, but who wouldn't? We have never seen a perimeter player EVER in the NBA have to anchor a defense like LeBron has had to the last 4 years.

Ardee, you can't use team results when one played with a top 3 player ever and then had James Worthy who was an all-nba player. That's foolish, and you and myself both know that :D

Also, Is KG's offense really that much greater than LeBron's defense?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#457 » by DannyNoonan1221 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 5:12 pm

My vote is for Duncan

This is a change from my original 100 list. Here is my reasoning.

For Duncan over Shaq/LeBron:

Championships, while a team accomplishment, have definitely played their part in this list so far. Duncan has 5, Shaq 4 and Lebron 2. I don't necessarily like ranking individuals based on this, but Shaq essentially won 3 of his 4 with the same team- no easy feat, but he was in a great position with PJ and Kobe and they did what they should have- 3 in a row. However, it seems like he struggled adjusting to new teams from that point on (I think a direct result of his teammate-ability/off court antics that hurt Wilt so much). He won one in Miami, but that was playing second fiddle to Wade (27.2-5.7-6.7 vs 20.0-9.7-1.8 blks and 115-103 vs 108-102 Ortg-Drtg).

Duncan had Pop, Shaq had Phil, wash. Shaq had Kobe, Duncan had Parker? Manu? Advantage Shaq. But Duncan still has more titles, over a longer period of time and different casts amongst his championship seasons.

Peak Shaq has been beaten into the ground in this thread, and he has the higher peak, but I do not think his advantage in peak over Duncan is more than Duncan's advantage over Shaq to win consistently and over a longer period of time. If Duncan was washed up and letting younger guys carry him to his 5th title after the career he had, it wouldn't be such an advantage over shaq. But this year he lead his team in minutes in both the regular season and the playoffs, leader in PER PS and RS, 4th in WS/48 RS, 2nd in PS. At age 37. To me that longevity advantage is much larger than Shaq's peak advantage. Hell, at 37, Shaq was playing in Cleveland with the LEBRON JAMES and couldn't win a title.

Duncan vs Lebron,

LeBron has really grown on me since the Heat/Celtics series. I really think everything clicked in his head in game 6 of that series and it was amazing to watch that unfold. And while I agree that, just like shaq, LeBron's peak so far is better than Duncan's, he just does not have the longevity yet.

Someone had commented a few threads ago about people not holding back current players with the belief that "when their careers are over they will get their fair due" in rankings such as this and that made me think about it. LeBron really has already made a case for a top 5 player of all time. His WS/48 per season ranking that was posted was extremely amazing to me and I am not the biggest fan of WS (but because a lot of people here do I feel I need to consider them more). His PER is only really matched by Jordan. He has two titles under his belt, been to the finals 4 years in a row and most of all for me, his ability to defend positions 1-4 at any point in a single game is unbelievable. By the end of his career I can't see him being any worse than 2nd on this list. But at this moment he is 2-3 in the finals and has had some of the similar on-court distractions that again were used against Wilt in the earlier threads.

While seeing some of the pro-LBJ voters give their side of the argument has convinced me to move LeBron up in my list, I cannot place him over the 37 year old who just beat him in the finals to win his 5th championship. Duncan is too consistent over such a long period of time and carried some bad teams in the early 2000s to extremely successful seasons- but all of that was also discussed in depth between KG/Duncan people so I will not rehash it here.

Why I moved Magic and Bird further back:

I really believe those two guys truly benefit from their story more so than other players and over time that has inflated their legacy. I am not saying they weren't that great- both were amazing. But even from spot #1 this thread started to show me things about players and change my perspective on how to evaluate players individually. Longevity was always a part of my rankings, but seeing some in-depth discussion on other players it really put into perspective for me how short Bird and Magic's careers were. Those guys were done playing shortly after I even have a memory of watching basketball. By the time I was really into the sport and reading about the history of the NBA, their individual matchup stretching from the NCAA championship and straight into the most storied franchises in NBA history was a thing of the past and had already been inflated by everyone who loved 80s basketball. Again, this project really forced me to look into their careers and while they both had unbelievable peaks and definitely top 10 players of all time, I have been able to shed some of that extra glorification they received because of their rivalry and put things into perspective. Magic always had great teammates- from the moment he stepped on an NBA court. And the same could be argued for Bird- I don't think his teams were quite as talented as Magic's, but he wasn't stepping into an anthony-davis-New Orleans situation either.

Again, a lot of posters have made some really good points and I was very close to moving Shaq into this spot (which I cannot believe, I was a pretty big anti-shaq guy back in the day) but his peak dominance doesn't make up for his lack of longevity and non basketball distractions when compared to duncan.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#458 » by shutupandjam » Thu Jul 10, 2014 5:17 pm

Chuck Texas wrote:I think pretty much everyone knows Lebron is a prolific offensive player both in terms of points and assists. I don't have an issue with you pointing that out, but when you choose an arbitrary cut off that has Lebron stand alone you lose at least a little credibility because its obviously what you are attempting to do.

I mean just take Larry Bird for instance whose career numbers are 24/6, adjust them down slightly per 36 or whatever but its obvious he also had a great combination of scoring and passing. Especially considering he had multiple seasons with numbers well surpassing both marks. Creating a list that shows Lebron celebrating an arbitrary achievement 9x while Bird does it once is attempting to suggest a magnitude of difference in this regard that simply does not exist.

I just think you could make your same point without attempting to skew the results.



Fair point. It's difficult to not be somewhat arbitrary in this kind of exercise, but here are a couple of attempts to use more rounded numbers:

Career averages of 25 pts, 5 ast pace adjusted per 36 in RS, sorted by pts/36

1. Jordan
2. LeBron
3. Kobe
4. Wade
5. Iverson

and in the postseason:

1. Jordan
2. LeBron
3. McGrady (only 1693 mp)
4. Iverson

Individual seasons:
LeBron (10)
Jordan (8)
Kobe (8)
McGrady (6)
Wade (6)
Iverson (5)
Bird (3)
Westbrook (3)
Rose (2)
Arenas (2)
Durant (1)
Harden (1)
Hill (1)
Drexler (1)
Ginobili (1)
Roy (1)
Westphal (1)
Parker (1)
Free (1)
Kyrie (1)
R.Barry (1)
Archibald (1)


And players in the 90th percentile or better in both career pace adjusted points/36 and ast/36

1. LeBron
2. Wade
3. Rose
4. Westbrook
5. Parker
6. Cassell
7. CP3
8. Curry
9. Marbury


Again, the point still stands I think. Of the great scorer/facilitators LeBron is unique in that he's a forward, which makes him a matchup nightmare in any era.

Note: Bird just misses the cut in the career lists - 22.7 pts 6 ast in RS, 20.9 pts 5.7 ast in PS, 98th percentile in scoring & 88th in assists.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#459 » by trex_8063 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 5:18 pm

I voted for Duncan, but as I read posts and think about it more, this spot is really toss-up to me between Duncan, Lebron, or Shaq.

I don't think Magic has a peak vs. peak case against Lebron. Unless we base it entirely on ORtg, every other metric is going to favor Lebron by at least a slim margin (and sometimes by a pretty sizable margin). We don't have RAPM data for Magic, but unless his offensive impact is around +10 (numbers which even peak Nash did not approach), his combined +/- will still not exceed what prime Lebron has been doing the last several years. In all likelihood, RAPM data (if available for Magic) would further favor Lebron in this comparison.

And Bron's had so many "peak-ish" seasons that people here cannot even agree about when his peak season was (see viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1330624 as evidence of that). Given his sustained high level of play (and the few lesser but still superstar level years prior to that), combined with what DQuinn1575 said of pre-'86 Magic:

DQuinn1575 wrote:
The trouble I have with Magic that until 1986, when his usage increased, he really is a great point guard, but not a Top 10 all-time player.
Compare 84 and 85 to Stockton's 4 best years:


TS%/TRB%/AST%/USG%/DfRtg/WS per season
84-85 Magic 63.3/10.3/42.5/20.0/106 /11.5
88-91 Stockton 61.9/4.4/56.0/19.5/103/14.6

stockton is shooting almost as well, with similar usage, much higher assist, and better defense.

This is a Top 30 player of all-time; not a Top 10.

Magic has 80-85 - 6 years where he is at this level, and then 6 years where he shows as Top 10.



TS%/TRB%/AST%/USG%/DfRtg/WS per season

88-91 Stockton 61.9/4.4/56.0/19.5/103/14.6
80-85 Magic 60.8/11.9/34.6/103/12.1


He wasn't 1st team all-NBA by either the writers (official) or players (Sporting News) until 1983.

From 1983-85 he was solid Top 5 player in the league, but in the 3 years combined he got 8 first place votes for MVP-

Besides Bird definitely being better, guys like Moses, Doctor J, and Bernard King would have a case - so Magic is 2-5 in this top period.

Win shares for this time shows him 4th, behind Bird, sidney Moncrief, and Moses

http://bkref.com/tiny/9CJjD

for his first 6 years, he is 5th, trailing Bird,Moses,Kareem, and Doc, barely beating out Moncrief.
He is way behind Bird for his first 6 years in the league. Relatively same for 3, then has 3 seasons better.


http://bkref.com/tiny/WyVZL


So with Magic I get 6 years of Stockton/Moncrief, and 6 years of superstar.

It makes me put him behind Bird, LeBron, and Shaq.


.....I don't see any case for Magic over Lebron in a prime vs. prime comparison, either.

Magic has more rings, but unless we're basing things on a ring-count.......I don't think it can be said that Magic was a superior playoff performer. And I don't think that it should be overlooked that Magic for most of his career played alongside Kareem, Worthy, Michael Cooper, and a useful tough-guy role player in Kurt Rambis, as well as post-prime McAdoo, Wilkes, and Norm Nixon early in his career; and around the time those latter three left, he obtained excellent role players in guys like Byron Scott, Mychal Thompson, A.C. Green, and a young Vlade Divac. In short: supporting casts which were----pretty much in their entirety----superior to anything Lebron had except in perhaps '11 and '13.

And the longevity argument barely has any relevance at this point: Magic played 906 total games.....Lebron's up to 842. So even with missing 16 to player hold-out in '12, he's LESS THAN one full season behind.


I've a tendency toward nostalgia, and Magic's a likable guy besides, so it's been difficult for me to allow him to fall behind some of these newer guys. But the more I scrutinize, the more frail his case over Lebron looks.

Vs. Duncan or Shaq.....
Magic's peak is well below Shaq; and for two-way impact, I'd actually probably put it marginally behind Duncan's, too (though obv that one is debatable). For prime, given how much higher Shaq's peak was and how steady and consistent Duncan has been.......I don't really think Magic's prime has a strong case against either. If we want a ring count, TD's actually got him tied, and Shaq's only one behind. And then factoring in longevity, well......I mean this is where Shaq and Duncan really separate themselves from Magic, imo.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#460 » by TrueLAfan » Thu Jul 10, 2014 5:20 pm

Well, I was going to vote for Magic Johnson. A primary argument against Magic, from what I see, is longetivity. But that’s not completely fair. In his final season, Magic was 19.5/7/12/5 player. He was at or near a career high in minutes played, WS, WS/48. He was 31 years old. There aren’t advanced metrics, but I can’t see they would show anything other than Magic was still an elite ballplayer. I don’t think there’s any reasonable reason to think he wouldn’t have stayed at or near that period for several more years.

The reason Magic didn‘t get to play, however, is different from others. Magic was not injured. Magic was kept off the court for reasons beyond his control. I say this with bias—Magic Johnson is my favorite basketball player—but I really think we’ll look back at what Karl Malone and Clyde Drexler did and said in 1992 and be embarrassed by their paranoia and unsupported fears. I figure Magic was really 7 or 8 years into his peak. Give him 3 more years, and he’s played as long at his top level as any of the other top 5 candidates.

I’m sorry. I know the love for Shaq on these boards. I’ve read it in these arguments. And, as I said in the previous thread, I think Wilt Chamberlain is the most self-destructive NBA player of all time. But I think Shaq is second and, in many ways, I find his impulses for more dangerous. Wilt, for all his issues, was the greatest Iron Man in the history of the NBA—far more than Malone or Stockton. (Even when he missed virtually an entire season due to injury, he played more in 14 years than Malone did in 16). Shaq’s impulses caused him to miss time on the court. Again—Magic missed well over half a season due to injury and he still played in 65 more games than Shaq did in their first 12 seasons.

How much does that hurt a team? Not just to be missing your star player for, maybe, 10-12 games a year compared to other elite players, but in terms of his attitude? When Shaq put it all together, he was devastating. When Shaquille O'Neal played in over 70 games, he went to the finals four times and won three titles. But there were at least seven other years when he was at or near his peak where he didn’t play 70 games. His teams went to two finals and won one. That shows both the value of Shaq and how he hurt his teams. Giving credit to Shaquille O’Neal for what he might have done “if he was healthy” or “if he was motivated” shows the difference between him and Magic. Magic’s years out of the league do not constitute a “what-if” in terms of his talent or value or impact. Magic was still great but was not allowed to play. Shaquille O’Neal did not allow himself to play. There’s no way I’ll put a player like that over Magic. Or Duncan. Or Hakeem. Sorry.

That leaves Hakeem and Duncan, with LeBron (to me) entering into the mix. Hakeem was as good at his peak, but it didn’t last as long—although Hakeem had that terrific near peak. I’ll regretfully save my discussion of him for later. And after the terrific and insightful posts about Duncan, I’m kind of putting Timmy over Hakeem now. Duncan scores terrifically in advanced metrics—WS, WS/48, PER, RAPM, DWS … he’s epic. He’s stayed there for a long, long time—even taking into account the fact that he doesn’t play (nearly) as much as he used to. And, in TD’s first 13 years vs. Shaq’s—it’s a difference over 2500 minutes and 90 games. You essentially get a full season more of TD. Even if you think Shaq is better—is he that much better? That you can give up a year of a peak, elite player? Not to mention that downside of seeing your star being voluntarily out of condition and distracted.

And also with Duncan: He won. He won and won and won. He won in 1999. He won this year. When he didn’t win, he was very close—between 1999 and 2014, the Spurs won 70% of their games, went to four more finals, and won three of them. It’s a terrific record.

So I’m surprising myself, with help from others. I’ll go with Tim Duncan. I’ll add this—after the top 3, I think there’s little to choose from until you get to about 9 or 10. It’s all subjective. But, in the same way that I dinged MJ for walking from a championship team while he was at his athletic peak (seriously, who does that??), I have to drop Shaq for the distracted nature that affected him for a major chunk of his peak. Magic vs. TD for me is a much harder choice.
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