RealGM Top 100 List #5

Moderators: Doctor MJ, trex_8063, penbeast0, PaulieWal, Clyde Frazier

User avatar
MacGill
Veteran
Posts: 2,769
And1: 568
Joined: May 29, 2010
Location: From Parts Unknown...
     

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#501 » by MacGill » Thu Jul 10, 2014 9:05 pm

acrossthecourt wrote:
colts18 wrote:
acrossthecourt wrote:One thing you're missing is minutes though. LeBron gives you a high level of production with few missed games. It's one of the main advantages for Shaq. And since xRAPM does overrate big men (http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/ASPM.html -- Chandler and DeAndre Jordan are second and third, respectively, by the SPM-only version, and Robin Lopez is like 11th), as height is a positive variable, I'm not saying that's great evidence of Shaq over LeBron. I do think '08-'14 LeBron beats '96-'02 Shaq. I hope I'm not alone.


Let's say that 08-14 LeBron beats out 96-02 Shaq. If he does its a small margin. Let's compare the rest of their careers.

04: Shaq by a gigantic margin
05: Shaq with a slight margin
06: LeBron wins because of games played
07: LeBron by a decent margin

Over those 4 years, I would take Shaq. That's all of LeBron's career. Shaq has more of his career left. This doesn't include his 93-95 seasons (xRAPM might overrate big men but Shaq finished ahead of Hakeem in 2 of those 3 years). It doesn't include his 2003 where he was the 2nd best player in the league. It doesn't include Shaq's 08-11 seasons where he was a positive in xRAPM all 4 years and had 1 3rd team All-NBA. Shaq's rest of career makes up for whatever small margin that Peak LeBron has.

Wait, 14 years of title contention? Where do you get that? 2008 Shaq does not ensure you title contention.

93-06 Shaq equals 14 years

'93 Shaq doesn't give you title contention all on his own either. And many of those seasons in between are flawed. Making his binary analysis -- title contention or not -- clouds the issues in favor of Shaq. You could use the same argument for Garnett and 14 years. Come on, that's rookie Shaq. And '06 Shaq is overrated. That was Wade's team.


Colt's has the right time-frame. And what I am saying is that Shaq's play throughout this time on the right team certainly does provide chip contention. I am not saying that rookie Shaq alone gets your there, but had he been drafted to a team where pieces were already in place, how can we say it isn't possible? Even as a rookie he had good immediate impact. We have seen many a player go to a team and be a difference maker, and that is the point I was making, although I certainly see to conflict with the term title contention. It was really around that the specific point of his career would be the Jordan/Pippen/Harden piece if you will. Those are all good pieces to have throughout your career.
Image
User avatar
An Unbiased Fan
RealGM
Posts: 11,742
And1: 5,718
Joined: Jan 16, 2009
       

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#502 » by An Unbiased Fan » Thu Jul 10, 2014 9:07 pm

colts18 wrote:
Wait, 14 years of title contention? Where do you get that? 2008 Shaq does not ensure you title contention.

93-06 Shaq equals 14 years

But Shaq didn't even make the playoffs in 1993....

I brought Lebron up in the #3 thread because despite his young career, I feel he's worthy of being in contention for a Top 5 spot at this point, and based on some of the arguments for him.

Using Top 5 MVP finishes as an acid test of an elite season(Top 5 player), Lebron is already on par with Shaq.

Shaq - 8 seasons: 94,95,98,00,01,02,03,05

Lebron - 9 seasons: 06,07,08,09,10,11,12,13,14

^
Lebron's been more consistent than Shaq, and in turn it can be argued that his career value is even.
--------------------------------------------------

In comparison to other Top 15 guys....

Duncan - 9 seasons: 98,99,00,01,02,03,04,05,07

Magic - 9 seasons: 83,84,85,86,87,88,89,90,91 <----For people who claim Magic had a short longevity too. he's on par with everyone too

Bird - 9 seasons: 80,81,82,83,84,85,86,87,88

Kobe - 11 seasons: 02,03,04,06,07,08,09,10,11,12,13

Garnett - 5 seasons: 00,01,03,04,08

Hakeem - 6 seasons; 86,89,93,94,95,96

Mailman - 9 seasons: 89,90,91,92,95,97,98,99,00

Dirk - 3 seasons: 05,06,07

West - 8 seasons; 62,63,64,65,66,70,71,72

Oscar - 9 seasons: 61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,71
------------------------------------------------

So I don't think longevity should be an issue for Lebron or Magic, when they've given just as many high vlaue seasons as other greats.
7-time RealGM MVPoster 2009-2016
Inducted into RealGM HOF 1st ballot in 2017
colts18
Head Coach
Posts: 7,434
And1: 3,255
Joined: Jun 29, 2009

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#503 » by colts18 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 9:07 pm

ElGee wrote:
I don't think there's a correlation there at all...Actually, I think Shaq has a history of ass-kicking in the games he plays during seasons where he misses bunch of time.

This. Shaq has a history of beating up higher seeds when he misses a lot of games.

98: Beats higher seed Sonics
01: Beats higher seeded Kings and Spurs
02: Beats higher seeded Spurs and Kings
03: Beats higher seeded TWolves
04: Beats higher seeded TWolves and Spurs
06: Beats higher seeded Pistons and Mavs
colts18
Head Coach
Posts: 7,434
And1: 3,255
Joined: Jun 29, 2009

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#504 » by colts18 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 9:25 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:
So I don't think longevity should be an issue for Lebron or Magic, when they've given just as many high vlaue seasons as other greats.
Since when is Top 5 MVP voting the only consideration for longevity? How about 10 MVP finishes?

Top 10 MVP finishes (through 2011):

Player Years Top-10 MVPs
Karl Malone 88-01 14
Shaquille O’Neal 93-05 13
Tim Duncan 98-08 11
Michael Jordan 85, 87-93, 96-98 11
Kobe Bryant 01-04, 06-11 10
Hakeem Olajuwon 86-90, 93-97 10
Magic Johnson 82-91 10
Larry Bird 80-88, 90 10
Moses Malone 77, 79-87 10
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 77-86 10
Dirk Nowitzki 02-07, 09-11 9
Charles Barkley 86-91, 93-95 9
LeBron James 04-11 8
David Robinson 90-96, 98 8

LeBron now has 11 top 10 MVP finishes which is still behind Shaq's 13.
User avatar
An Unbiased Fan
RealGM
Posts: 11,742
And1: 5,718
Joined: Jan 16, 2009
       

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#505 » by An Unbiased Fan » Thu Jul 10, 2014 9:31 pm

colts18 wrote:
An Unbiased Fan wrote:
So I don't think longevity should be an issue for Lebron or Magic, when they've given just as many high vlaue seasons as other greats.
Since when is Top 5 MVP voting the only consideration for longevity? How about 10 MVP finishes?

Top 10 MVP finishes (through 2011):

Player Years Top-10 MVPs
Karl Malone 88-01 14
Shaquille O’Neal 93-05 13
Tim Duncan 98-08 11
Michael Jordan 85, 87-93, 96-98 11
Kobe Bryant 01-04, 06-11 10
Hakeem Olajuwon 86-90, 93-97 10
Magic Johnson 82-91 10
Larry Bird 80-88, 90 10
Moses Malone 77, 79-87 10
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 77-86 10
Dirk Nowitzki 02-07, 09-11 9
Charles Barkley 86-91, 93-95 9
LeBron James 04-11 8
David Robinson 90-96, 98 8

LeBron now has 11 top 10 MVP finishes which is still behind Shaq's 13.

1) I said in the post it's an acid test to estimate Top 5 seasons. Top 5 is usually the cutoff of what we consider"elite" players for a season. Think All-NBA 1st team caliber.

2) It's not a contest for biggest number, the point is that Lebron has had just as many elite seasons as Shaq, despite the shorter career. So that shouldn't deter anyone for voting for him or Magic/Bird.

EDIT: I just noticed you cutoff Top 10 finishes at 2011....why would you do that consider Lebron's 2012-2014 seasons were all elite? :noway:
7-time RealGM MVPoster 2009-2016
Inducted into RealGM HOF 1st ballot in 2017
magicmerl
Analyst
Posts: 3,226
And1: 831
Joined: Jul 11, 2013

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#506 » by magicmerl » Thu Jul 10, 2014 9:33 pm

therealbig3 wrote:KG seems to have a more portable skillset than Duncan...better shooter, better passer, better ball handler, and at minimum, a comparable defender, but I'm beginning to believe he was actually slightly better on defense too.

I think that Duncan would be slightly better if you dropped him in a random team where his teammates were maybe not the best, simplay because his greater shotblocking prowess could protect the rim when the perimeter defender gets beaten by him man.

Garnett on the other hand is possibly (along with Russell) perhaps the best possible big to have in a Thibadeau-style defense, which I think is currently the best defense you can play int he NBA. So Garnett is better in the better system, but Duncan is more portable across systems, and better with weak defenders alongside him.
colts18
Head Coach
Posts: 7,434
And1: 3,255
Joined: Jun 29, 2009

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#507 » by colts18 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 9:35 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:
EDIT: I just noticed you cutoff Top 10 finishes at 2011....why would you do that consider Lebron's 2012-2014 seasons were all elite? :noway:

I mentioned that he had 11 top 10 finishes. I stopped at 2011 because I copied that list from a site that posted it in 2011 (Elgee's now defunct website)
magicmerl
Analyst
Posts: 3,226
And1: 831
Joined: Jul 11, 2013

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#508 » by magicmerl » Thu Jul 10, 2014 9:42 pm

One other thing to note is that the #2 vote vs Kareem and Russell was won on a knife edge, to Kareem. #3 was a runaway slam dunk to Russell.

It looks like there will be the same sort of knife-edge runoff vote between Duncan and Shaq here, and I don't care who wins (either will be a worth candidate at #5 I think). But can we avoid the farce of the #6 vote and just award it to whoever loses the runoff?

Because given the number of Shaq/Duncan voters who are saying how close their pick is, I think the runoff loser of Shaq/Duncan is going to run away with the #6 vote.

Just to help us jump ahead to #7, with Magic/LeBron/Hakeem/Garnett/Bird.
User avatar
An Unbiased Fan
RealGM
Posts: 11,742
And1: 5,718
Joined: Jan 16, 2009
       

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#509 » by An Unbiased Fan » Thu Jul 10, 2014 9:47 pm

magicmerl wrote:One other thing to note is that the #2 vote vs Kareem and Russell was won on a knife edge, to Kareem. #3 was a runaway slam dunk to Russell.

It looks like there will be the same sort of knife-edge runoff vote between Duncan and Shaq here, and I don't care who wins (either will be a worth candidate at #5 I think). But can we avoid the farce of the #6 vote and just award it to whoever loses the runoff?

Because given the number of Shaq/Duncan voters who are saying how close their pick is, I think the runoff loser of Shaq/Duncan is going to run away with the #6 vote.

Just to help us jump ahead to #7, with Magic/LeBron/Hakeem/Garnett/Bird.

No dice, that defeats the purpose of the project. Plus the last Vote had a runoff with Wilt/Shaq, yet TD may win #5, which is counter your premise.
7-time RealGM MVPoster 2009-2016
Inducted into RealGM HOF 1st ballot in 2017
User avatar
ronnymac2
RealGM
Posts: 11,009
And1: 5,078
Joined: Apr 11, 2008
   

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#510 » by ronnymac2 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 9:54 pm

Note: The following is not in any way my justification for voting for Shaq. The following is a question posed to those whose criteria includes the team result. The team result does not matter to me.

Where exactly did Shaq's non-championship teams underachieve when he missed time?

1996 — Lost to GOAT-level Chicago Bulls in ECF, after losing Horace Grant in ECF

1997 — Lost to NBA Finalist Utah Jazz in WCSF, 7.97 SRS (2nd of 29), 64 wins, regarded as perhaps the greatest team to never win a title when healthy in playoffs

1998 — Lost to NBA Finalist Utah Jazz in WCF, 5.73 SRS (5th out of 29), 62 wins

1999 — Lost to NBA Champion San Antonio Spurs in WCSF, 7.12 SRS (1st out of 29), 37 wins in 50 games

2003 — Lost to NBA Champion San Antonio Spurs in WCSF, 5.65 SRS (3rd out of 29), 60 wins, LA had no healthy SF in series, Kobe Bryant had injured shoulder in series

2004 — Lost to NBA Champion Detroit Pistons in NBA Finals, 5.04 SRS (4th out of 29), 54 wins, Detroit played Defense at GOAT-Level after Rasheed Wallace trade, Karl Malone injured in NBA Finals

2005 — Lost to NBA Finalist Detroit Pistons in ECF, 3.31 SRS (6th out of 30), 54 wins, Dwyane Wade injured during series (misses Game 6)
Pay no mind to the battles you've won
It'll take a lot more than rage and muscle
Open your heart and hands, my son
Or you'll never make it over the river
DQuinn1575
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,952
And1: 712
Joined: Feb 20, 2014

RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#511 » by DQuinn1575 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 10:17 pm

magicmerl wrote:One other thing to note is that the #2 vote vs Kareem and Russell was won on a knife edge, to Kareem. #3 was a runaway slam dunk to Russell.

It looks like there will be the same sort of knife-edge runoff vote between Duncan and Shaq here, and I don't care who wins (either will be a worth candidate at #5 I think). But can we avoid the farce of the #6 vote and just award it to whoever loses the runoff?

Because given the number of Shaq/Duncan voters who are saying how close their pick is, I think the runoff loser of Shaq/Duncan is going to run away with the #6 vote.

Just to help us jump ahead to #7, with Magic/LeBron/Hakeem/Garnett/Bird.


The votes are something like shaq 11 Duncan 9 others 12 total 32
So if the choice was
Shaq
Duncan
Other

Other would win

Duncan would need 8 of 11 shaq votes to avoid runoff.
So I think it really is a question of who he faces in the run off.
We probably will have runoffs until 10 and most spots will have runoffs


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums
User avatar
An Unbiased Fan
RealGM
Posts: 11,742
And1: 5,718
Joined: Jan 16, 2009
       

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#512 » by An Unbiased Fan » Thu Jul 10, 2014 10:19 pm

ronnymac2 wrote:Note: The following is not in any way my justification for voting for Shaq. The following is a question posed to those whose criteria includes the team result. The team result does not matter to me.

Where exactly did Shaq's non-championship teams underachieve when he missed time?

1996 — Lost to GOAT-level Chicago Bulls in ECF, after losing Horace Grant in ECF

1997 — Lost to NBA Finalist Utah Jazz in WCSF, 7.97 SRS (2nd of 29), 64 wins, regarded as perhaps the greatest team to never win a title when healthy in playoffs

1998 — Lost to NBA Finalist Utah Jazz in WCF, 5.73 SRS (5th out of 29), 62 wins

1999 — Lost to NBA Champion San Antonio Spurs in ECSF, 7.12 SRS (1st out of 29), 37 wins in 50 games

2003 — Lost to NBA Champion San Antonio Spurs in WCSF, 5.65 SRS (3rd out of 29), 60 wins, LA had no healthy SF in series, Kobe Bryant had injured shoulder in series

2004 — Lost to NBA Champion Detroit Pistons in NBA Finals, 5.04 SRS (4th out of 29), 54 wins, Detroit played Defense at GOAT-Level after Rasheed Wallace trade, Karl Malone injured in NBA Finals

2005 — Lost to NBA Finalist Detroit Pistons in ECF, 3.31 SRS (6th out of 30), 54 wins, Dwyane Wade injured during series (misses Game 6)

1994 - Had 3.68 SRS Magic, and swept out by 3.26 SRS Pacers in the 1st round.

1995 - Had 6.44 SRS Magic, and swept out by 2.32 SRS Rockets in the Finals.

1998 - Had 6.88 SRS Lakers, and swept out by 5.73 SRS Jazz in the WCF.

2005 - Had 5.76 SRS Heat, and lost to 3.31 SRS Pistons.
7-time RealGM MVPoster 2009-2016
Inducted into RealGM HOF 1st ballot in 2017
User avatar
acrossthecourt
Pro Prospect
Posts: 984
And1: 729
Joined: Feb 05, 2012
Contact:

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#513 » by acrossthecourt » Thu Jul 10, 2014 10:21 pm

So it seems like what people are doing now is only caring about how a player helps you win a title. I know that's important, obviously, but we are really ignoring the regular season? Shouldn't that matter too? It's part of the NBA. Plus, if you miss 15-25 games, you do drop in seeding. That can matter for title odds, like how the Clippers faced a gauntlet by dropping to 3. It would have been easier as the 2 seed. Is the top 100 list now about championship odds only?

colts18 wrote:
An Unbiased Fan wrote:
So I don't think longevity should be an issue for Lebron or Magic, when they've given just as many high vlaue seasons as other greats.
Since when is Top 5 MVP voting the only consideration for longevity? How about 10 MVP finishes?

Top 10 MVP finishes (through 2011):

Player Years Top-10 MVPs
Karl Malone 88-01 14
Shaquille O’Neal 93-05 13
Tim Duncan 98-08 11
Michael Jordan 85, 87-93, 96-98 11
Kobe Bryant 01-04, 06-11 10
Hakeem Olajuwon 86-90, 93-97 10
Magic Johnson 82-91 10
Larry Bird 80-88, 90 10
Moses Malone 77, 79-87 10
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 77-86 10
Dirk Nowitzki 02-07, 09-11 9
Charles Barkley 86-91, 93-95 9
LeBron James 04-11 8
David Robinson 90-96, 98 8

LeBron now has 11 top 10 MVP finishes which is still behind Shaq's 13.

And LeBron has more top 1 finishes than Shaq....

Shaq played many seasons, but that doesn't make him better than LeBron. Being an MVP is generally much more important than being a top ten guy. It's like taking Stockton over, say, Magic or something -- it's not just how many all-star games you collect or assists you amass.

If you want a real account of MVP strength, use MVP shares. (MVP shares are the best proxy to an all-time list, at least for the top 40 or so, especially when you factor in rings/playoffs. Things like career WS's or PER have silly results like Stockton near the top.)

LeBron's third all-time in MVP shares. Regular season only, sure, but that's incredible. Jordan's ahead of him by a good distance and Kareem's ahead by a hair. (Rest of the top ten is Bird, Magic, Russell, O'Neal, Karl, Duncan, and Wilt, so it's not a terrible estimate.) And LeBron's had some pretty spectacular playoff runs with a couple titles while his co-"stars" faded. He has a good case to be taken high.

*MVP shares have a problem with the era in which only 1 guy is listed on the ballot, so Russell/Wilt/et al are underrated, and it doesn't count the playoffs so Karl Malone and Robinson look better.

So LeBron has a prime from like '08 to '14 where he's a high level MVP-candidate type of player, typically winning the award or coming in second, he lifted some Cleveland teams to 60+ win marks, they fell apart without him, some playoff missteps but many fantastic performances ... that's the core of a highly rated player. Debate on the specifics in you want (some don't agree on his overall value), but with '09, '10, '12, '13, and '14, I feel like no one else matches that level of play.

The problem with Shaq's argument is that people say, "his 2000 season is one of the best ever, top 3 at least," and he had 10+ high level seasons; therefore, that's a top 3 player. But he never had a season like 2000 again. You can't just color in the rest of his career like it's 2000. He has many flawed seasons, and that includes the playoffs for some of those years. He has an uneven career, and his defense was a problem too often even in the playoffs. Plus, people use the Duncan is a better teammate argument over Shaq, and by all accounts LeBron is great. He needed to leave Cleveland. Sorry. It wasn't a good match, and they were providing bad support. Kareem left for a big city, and he's higher ranked.

And man, how would his career be viewed if they lost in 2000? They were so close to losing. (Yes, LeBron was close too, and so were many other winners.)


Sometimes with Shaq it feels like he's a top 5 play without doubt. But the perception wasn't aligned with that during the end of his career. What was the disconnect? Are we underrating him? Were his playoffs better than people remember? He got robbed of an MVP in 2001 because Iverson played a ton of more minutes, but I definitely think Shaq was more valuable even with the missed games. (Or Duncan deserved it.) That was the main culprit to his low MVP award case.

So I don't know. With Shaq/LeBron/Duncan I feel like it's a toss-up. (When's the voting end?)
Twitter: AcrossTheCourt
Website; advanced stats based with a few studies:
http://ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt.blogspot.com
User avatar
ronnymac2
RealGM
Posts: 11,009
And1: 5,078
Joined: Apr 11, 2008
   

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#514 » by ronnymac2 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 10:26 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:
ronnymac2 wrote:Note: The following is not in any way my justification for voting for Shaq. The following is a question posed to those whose criteria includes the team result. The team result does not matter to me.

Where exactly did Shaq's non-championship teams underachieve when he missed time?

1996 — Lost to GOAT-level Chicago Bulls in ECF, after losing Horace Grant in ECF

1997 — Lost to NBA Finalist Utah Jazz in WCSF, 7.97 SRS (2nd of 29), 64 wins, regarded as perhaps the greatest team to never win a title when healthy in playoffs

1998 — Lost to NBA Finalist Utah Jazz in WCF, 5.73 SRS (5th out of 29), 62 wins

1999 — Lost to NBA Champion San Antonio Spurs in ECSF, 7.12 SRS (1st out of 29), 37 wins in 50 games

2003 — Lost to NBA Champion San Antonio Spurs in WCSF, 5.65 SRS (3rd out of 29), 60 wins, LA had no healthy SF in series, Kobe Bryant had injured shoulder in series

2004 — Lost to NBA Champion Detroit Pistons in NBA Finals, 5.04 SRS (4th out of 29), 54 wins, Detroit played Defense at GOAT-Level after Rasheed Wallace trade, Karl Malone injured in NBA Finals

2005 — Lost to NBA Finalist Detroit Pistons in ECF, 3.31 SRS (6th out of 30), 54 wins, Dwyane Wade injured during series (misses Game 6)

1994 - Had 3.68 SRS Magic, and swept out by 3.26 SRS Pacers in the 1st round.

1995 - Had 6.44 SRS Magic, and swept out by 2.32 SRS Rockets in the Finals.

1998 - Had 6.88 SRS Lakers, and swept out by 5.73 SRS Jazz in the WCF.

2005 - Had 5.76 SRS Heat, and lost to 3.31 SRS Pistons.


I asked "Where exactly did Shaq's non-championship teams underachieve when he missed time?"

1994 and 1995 are out of the scope of the subject because Shaq didn't miss significant time those years.

1998 is a possible underachievement.

Losing Wade in Game 6 and not having him at 100% for Game 7 makes calling 2005 an underachievement dubious at best.
Pay no mind to the battles you've won
It'll take a lot more than rage and muscle
Open your heart and hands, my son
Or you'll never make it over the river
User avatar
An Unbiased Fan
RealGM
Posts: 11,742
And1: 5,718
Joined: Jan 16, 2009
       

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#515 » by An Unbiased Fan » Thu Jul 10, 2014 10:28 pm

ronnymac2 wrote:
I asked "Where exactly did Shaq's non-championship teams underachieve when he missed time?"

1994 and 1995 are out of the scope of the subject because Shaq didn't miss significant time those years.

1998 is a possible underachievement.

Losing Wade in Game 6 and not having him at 100% for Game 7 makes calling 2005 an underachievement dubious at best.

Ah, my bad. I misread your question.
7-time RealGM MVPoster 2009-2016
Inducted into RealGM HOF 1st ballot in 2017
drza
Analyst
Posts: 3,518
And1: 1,861
Joined: May 22, 2001

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#516 » by drza » Thu Jul 10, 2014 10:45 pm

ardee wrote:I'm also interested to see posts by KG voters on his Playoffs. The fact that he's being voted for by some implies one of two things:

1. KG was a better Playoff performer than someone of equal longevity like Duncan or Dirk or Shaq.

2. KG was such a better RS performer than these guys that the Playoff edge doesn't matter.

Sent from my GT-I9300 using RealGM Forums mobile app


I'm not ignoring you, Ardee. But a KG playoff post would probably be pretty long, and I don't have the time to make a good effort at it before the final vote in this thread. So I'm likely to hold off responding for now. But it's coming.
Creator of the Hoops Lab: tinyurl.com/mpo2brj
Contributor to NylonCalculusDOTcom
Contributor to TYTSports: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLTbFEVCpx9shKEsZl7FcRHzpGO1dPoimk
Follow on Twitter: @ProfessorDrz
User avatar
RayBan-Sematra
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,236
And1: 911
Joined: Oct 03, 2012

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#517 » by RayBan-Sematra » Thu Jul 10, 2014 10:56 pm

ronnymac2 wrote:Note: The following is not in any way my justification for voting for Shaq. The following is a question posed to those whose criteria includes the team result. The team result does not matter to me.

Where exactly did Shaq's non-championship teams underachieve when he missed time?

1996 — Lost to GOAT-level Chicago Bulls in ECF, after losing Horace Grant in ECF

1997 — Lost to NBA Finalist Utah Jazz in WCSF, 7.97 SRS (2nd of 29), 64 wins, regarded as perhaps the greatest team to never win a title when healthy in playoffs

1998 — Lost to NBA Finalist Utah Jazz in WCF, 5.73 SRS (5th out of 29), 62 wins

1999 — Lost to NBA Champion San Antonio Spurs in WCSF, 7.12 SRS (1st out of 29), 37 wins in 50 games

2003 — Lost to NBA Champion San Antonio Spurs in WCSF, 5.65 SRS (3rd out of 29), 60 wins, LA had no healthy SF in series, Kobe Bryant had injured shoulder in series

2004 — Lost to NBA Champion Detroit Pistons in NBA Finals, 5.04 SRS (4th out of 29), 54 wins, Detroit played Defense at GOAT-Level after Rasheed Wallace trade, Karl Malone injured in NBA Finals

2005 — Lost to NBA Finalist Detroit Pistons in ECF, 3.31 SRS (6th out of 30), 54 wins, Dwyane Wade injured during series (misses Game 6)


Here is how Shaq performed in those series.

2006 ECF : 27 / 11 / 4apg / 2bpg on 64%FG / 60%TS :o

Had 3 games in this series where he scored 27+ on 60-80+% FG.
Had a 36 / 14 / 6apg on 83%TS game which they lost by 5. :o

I don't give Shaq any significant blame for this series.
He was great on both offense & defense and he was devastatingly efficient.
Penny struggled in this series (arguably getting outplayed by Pippen) and the Magics main offense roleplayers (Scott/Anderson) were both atrocious (understatement).

___________________________________________


1997 2nd round
Struggles in the first 3 games averaging 18 / 11 / 2apg on a horrible 45%TS
Plays well in the final 2 games averaging 29 / 12 / 5apg / 4bpg on 58%FG / 61%TS.
They lost those last two games by an average of 11ppg.

I give Shaq some blame for this series.
For example they might have won G2 if he made a few more shots.
He did have 25 / 12 / 2ast / 2blk in that game but he shot only 10-25 from the field.

G1 was a blowout. Even had Shaq scored a few more points it likely wouldn't have changed the outcome.
Van Exel was the only guy who was giving Shaq some offensive support in this series.
Jones was terrible and Kobe was still not ready for the big time.

So in the end that Utah team was simply better then the Lakers.
They had two stars and years to refine their team craft unlike the Lakers who were in their first year together.
Oh, they also had better coaching with Sloan.
I never thought much of Del Harris as a coach and his teams had a combined playoff record of 21W - 31L before he came to LA.

_________________________________________________

1998 WCF

Struggles in the first game but then averages 36 / 10 on 59%TS in the rest of the series.
He had a 39 / 15 / 2apg on 57% which they lost by 15.

His supporting players choked away this series.
Van Exel was atrocious (something like 12ppg on 24% shooting with like 2apg).
Jones was mediocre at best and Kobe was terrible.

The Jazz were just the battle tested, refined and overall superior team with better coaching.
Still I gotta put the blame mostly on guys like Van Exel and Jones for playing so poorly.
Kobe was still young so I won't give him any flack.
____________________________________________________________________________

2005 ECF

Despite being in his 13th year, well past his Peak and having suffered a serious injury prior to the playoffs Shaq had a pretty damn good series against the tough interior Detroit defense led by the Wallace twins.
Shaq averaged 20 / 7 / 2apg / 2bpg on 60%TS in the first 3 games of that 7 game series.
In the final 3 games Shaq averaged 24 / 9 / 2apg / 3bpg on 62%FG / 59%TS.

He also had his best game of the series in G7 dropping 27 / 9 / 2stl / 3blk on 63%TS.

Like Ronny said if Wade doesn't get injured they almost certainly make the Finals this year.

---------

I got lazy so I didn't do 99, 03 & 04.
99 - Similar to 97 situation but Shaq didn't perform as badly.
03 - Shaq had a dominant series on all fronts (offense/rebounding/defense).
Duncan was just a monster this year. Combine that with Kobe being injured/inconsistent and the roleplayers crew being not only dreadfully thin but also injured and you can understand why they lost.
Plus the team had chemistry issues and Phil was missing games due to health issues.
04 - Don't really need to explain this one.

An Unbiased Fan wrote:Using Top 5 MVP finishes as an acid test of an elite season(Top 5 player), Lebron is already on par with Shaq.

Which is why using them for that purpose is illogical.
Shaq was an elite player for 14 years. Lebron has 10 years currently of elite play.

Lebron's been more consistent than Shaq.

I disagree strongly.
Shaq as a playoff performer over his first 10 years was far more consistent in terms of his overall production & efficiency.
He also was a far better Finals performer and had far fewer failures in elimination.

and in turn it can be argued that his career value is even.

Not even close.
Shaq was a much better playoff/finals performer through their first 10 years and he still has a strong edge in total longevity aswell.
There is no reasonable case for Lebron to be ranked over Shaq at this time.
User avatar
ronnymac2
RealGM
Posts: 11,009
And1: 5,078
Joined: Apr 11, 2008
   

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#518 » by ronnymac2 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 10:57 pm

Anybody think it'd be weird if Dirk started to get mentioned?

This isn't a show of support for him to start getting votes, but I ask because his longevity is starting to become truly special, and I know based on advanced stats, his prime is very similar to KG. I remember Mysticbb did a study and found KG had a slightly better peak but that Dirk was making up for it with sustained prime. Or maybe it was vice versa. Either way, he said based on the impact each had on their respective teams, it's basically a pick 'em. Dirk's been an MVP-level player for a while and has constantly led 50 win teams. Great playoff performer. All-time great offensive big man with all-time great defensive rebounding in the playoffs. For those who care, he's never feuded with teammates. He's had many types of supporting casts as well.
Pay no mind to the battles you've won
It'll take a lot more than rage and muscle
Open your heart and hands, my son
Or you'll never make it over the river
therealbig3
RealGM
Posts: 29,560
And1: 16,113
Joined: Jul 31, 2010

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#519 » by therealbig3 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 11:06 pm

ronnymac2 wrote:Anybody think it'd be weird if Dirk started to get mentioned?

This isn't a show of support for him to start getting votes, but I ask because his longevity is starting to become truly special, and I know based on advanced stats, his prime is very similar to KG. I remember Mysticbb did a study and found KG had a slightly better peak but that Dirk was making up for it with sustained prime. Or maybe it was vice versa. Either way, he said based on the impact each had on their respective teams, it's basically a pick 'em. Dirk's been an MVP-level player for a while and has constantly led 50 win teams. Great playoff performer. All-time great offensive big man with all-time great defensive rebounding in the playoffs. For those who care, he's never feuded with teammates. He's had many types of supporting casts as well.


I don't see a huge difference between KG and Dirk in terms of longevity (KG was a great player from 98-08, and had 3 really good seasons from 11-13 where he was still a top 15 player in the league...even in 2010, hobbled from an injury the year before, he was still a very valuable contributor on a team that came within 1 game of a championship). And I think KG had a clearly superior peak, so I've got him higher than Dirk all-time by a few spots. I've got Dirk at #14 all time...but I think he's pretty debatable with Dr. J and K. Malone (who I have at 12 and 13).
magicmerl
Analyst
Posts: 3,226
And1: 831
Joined: Jul 11, 2013

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#520 » by magicmerl » Thu Jul 10, 2014 11:07 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:
magicmerl wrote:One other thing to note is that the #2 vote vs Kareem and Russell was won on a knife edge, to Kareem. #3 was a runaway slam dunk to Russell.

It looks like there will be the same sort of knife-edge runoff vote between Duncan and Shaq here, and I don't care who wins (either will be a worth candidate at #5 I think). But can we avoid the farce of the #6 vote and just award it to whoever loses the runoff?

Because given the number of Shaq/Duncan voters who are saying how close their pick is, I think the runoff loser of Shaq/Duncan is going to run away with the #6 vote.

Just to help us jump ahead to #7, with Magic/LeBron/Hakeem/Garnett/Bird.

No dice, that defeats the purpose of the project. Plus the last Vote had a runoff with Wilt/Shaq, yet TD may win #5, which is counter your premise.

Fair enough. I realised after I posted it that there was technically a runoff for #1 as well (even though MJ was comfortably in front) and Russell actually fell to #3, so coming 2nd doesn't make you a slam dunk for the next slot.

It could just get awkward if people just re-post the same arguements from previous threads, or risk them not being part of the current discussion of the current pick.

Return to Player Comparisons