The Wizards passed on Noel!

Knighthonor · Post #1 » by **Knighthonor** » Fri Jul 11, 2014 8:07 am

I know this is old news, but I want this reality to sting a little bit.
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYyNn0RhWtc[/youtube]

Wizards skipped on Noel!!! Nerlen Noel!!!

Does it burn? Good!!! :banghead:

edit:
@Nate33 go ahead and do what you do...

MJG · Post #2 » by **MJG** » Fri Jul 11, 2014 8:34 am

You heard the man nate, please go ahead and add some carefully researched, insightful, well thought out posts to this thread.

gambitx777 · Post #3 » by **gambitx777** » Fri Jul 11, 2014 9:48 am

A lot of people passed on him, and for good reason. The kid had a bad injury and he is skinny as hell. There are concerns about his frame and his longevity. Hindsight is always 20/20, and just because he is having a nice summer league does not mean that any of the reasons as to why teams passed on him are any less valid than they were at the time.

Dat2U · Post #4 » by **Dat2U** » Fri Jul 11, 2014 10:36 am

Six teams passed on him and poorly run teams have passed on a lot of quality talent for good & bad reasons over the years. Noel was obvious #1 pick last year IMO. I had him on his own tier. Never at once did I think Noel would be there at 3. Nor did most people. Unfortunately Ernie is risk adverse and struggles mightly in the draft process.

Dark Faze · Post #5 » by **Dark Faze** » Fri Jul 11, 2014 12:17 pm

The reasons teams passed on him were dumb. He didn't have a bad injury history. An ACL tear is just an ACL tear, passing on a high level prospect because of that is just idiotic. He's going to get stronger. Until then, just double in the post more. He'll more than make up for it with elite defense in the passing lanes , PNR defense, etc.

just a terrible terrible move

Post #6 » by **montestewart** » Fri Jul 11, 2014 1:02 pm

Only four teams other than the Wizards passed on him. The Wizards don't get to use the Blair excuse ("Every team passed on him at least once"). Noel was injured, and the surprise of him falling so far from #1 led to reasonable conjecture about what information was available to drafting teams about the nature of his injury and chances for full recovery, with variations of the frequent mantra, "Even Phoenix passed on him," (though they did so in favor of another highly regarded center).

Picking Porter over Noel may or may not have been a wise or reasonable move, and it hasn't been proven to be the wrong move, but it seems more the move of a team that thinks it's one piece away, with no one to play SF, than a team that is still rebuilding and needs to acquire young bigs for the future, which I believe the Wizards are. There may be good excuses for passing on Noel, but they are still just more excuses for EG.

If you count the two #1 picks traded to the Bullets after their first year (Pervis Ellison, Chris Webber), the Wizards have had four #1 picks: Ellison, Webber, Kwame, and Wall. Much as I like Webber and Wall, DC doesn't have much to show for all those #1 picks. The only player drafted by EG in recent years that I can give higher than a passing grade to is Booker.Booker.Booker! A player who nearly all of us (myself included) won't blink twice about seeing depart.

Maybe now we'll be in the heart of the draft for a while, this team's sweet spot. Who's the next OP, Effries, Singleton, or Arvis? What a depressing draft history. I think I'll go pound my face against a broken beer bottle.

AFM · Post #7 » by **AFM** » Fri Jul 11, 2014 1:22 pm

Did you guys know other teams' boards actually have news to talk about this offseason?

Great thread. Did I step into a time machine?

Severn Hoos · Post #8 » by **Severn Hoos** » Fri Jul 11, 2014 1:32 pm

Well, to be precise, Dat said "Six teams passed on him", which includes the Wiz. And given that New Orleans had the option of drafting him but decided they'd rather have Jrue Holiday (and threw in what became the #10 pick this year - and that in turn became the #12 pick and a future 1st - for the privilege of watching Jrue pound the ball into the floor). So I would say it's safe to include New Orleans in the list of teams that "passed" on Noel, and in fact their pass was worse than ours, given that they gave up future resources NOT to take him.

But yeah, there's no question the Wiz should have taken Noel, assuming his long-term health is OK. Not just recovery from the current injury, but that his frame can hold up over time. If so, that could be a huge whiff. But then, we're used to that.

tontoz · Post #9 » by **tontoz** » Fri Jul 11, 2014 1:44 pm

Passing on Noel could be a major blunder but i am not going to make that call based on summer league.

CntOutSmrtCrazy · Post #10 » by **CntOutSmrtCrazy** » Fri Jul 11, 2014 1:47 pm

What is really so impressive in what he's doing in this video?

stevemcqueen1 · Post #11 » by **stevemcqueen1** » Fri Jul 11, 2014 2:23 pm

I could see Noel winning ROTY given he'll have a year of familiarity and NBA adjustment on the other rookies. Plus Philly is awful, so he'll play 30+ minutes a game easily.

dandridge 10 · Post #12 » by **dandridge 10** » Fri Jul 11, 2014 2:23 pm

tontoz wrote:Passing on Noel could be a major blunder but i am not going to make that call based on summer league.

Exactly, and I am not making that call until Otto has at least been given a chance to show his play in any meaningful minutes.

stevemcqueen1 · Post #13 » by **stevemcqueen1** » Fri Jul 11, 2014 2:36 pm

CntOutSmrtCrazy wrote:What is really so impressive in what he's doing in this video?

For me it's the obvious court awareness. He's a nice passer and he is a really heads up defender. Very very quick hands and he's a very quick leaper. It's deceptive. He gets a ton of blocks from guys underestimating just how quick he is.

I think he has a chance to be the best shot blocker in the NBA in time.

Plus it looks like he's honed his shooting touch in the paint. That was an issue for him last year at Kentucky. If he becomes a good finisher around the basket, he'll have a role.

But there are still issues with Noah that you can't gloss over, and you can still see the big one there in that video. He is extremely undersized. Otto Porter is skinny and lacks muscle bulk in his lower body. But Otto Porter is a SF. And Otto has the frame to add bulk. Noel is a C and he has a very slight frame with narrow shoulders and joints. Marcin Gortat is a somewhat slender NBA 5. Gortat could absolutely destroy Noel.

Noel has a Joakim Noah-like skillset. But he's not as big or strong as Noah was when he came out, much less where Noah is today. And Noah has problems with big 4s and 5s. I think Noel is going to be totally reliant on quickness to defend his position and I think he's going to foul a ton whenever he plays a team with any sort of real big that can post him up.

CntOutSmrtCrazy · Post #14 » by **CntOutSmrtCrazy** » Fri Jul 11, 2014 2:37 pm

stevemcqueen1 wrote:
CntOutSmrtCrazy wrote:What is really so impressive in what he's doing in this video?

For me it's the obvious court awareness. He's a nice passer and he is a really heads up defender. Very very quick hands and he's a very quick leaper. It's deceptive. He gets a ton of blocks from guys underestimating just how quick he is.

I think he has a chance to be the best shot blocker in the NBA in time.

Plus it looks like he's honed his shooting touch in the paint. That was an issue for him last year at Kentucky. If he becomes a good finisher around the basket, he'll have a role.

But there are still issues with Noah that you can't gloss over, and you can still see the big one there in that video. He is extremely undersized. Otto Porter is skinny and lacks muscle bulk in his lower body. But Otto Porter is a SF. And Otto has the frame to add bulk. Noel is a C and he has a very slight frame with narrow shoulders and joints. Marcin Gortat is a somewhat slender NBA 5. Gortat could absolutely destroy Noel.

Noel has a Joakim Noah-like skillset. But he's not as big or strong as Noah was when he came out, much less where Noah is today. And Noah has problems with big 4s and 5s. I think Noel is going to be totally reliant on quickness to defend his position and I think he's going to foul a ton whenever he plays a team with any sort of real big that can post him up.

I just don't know he looks like he's doing a lot of decent/good things against a lot of bigs who could only hope to be a bench warmer in the NBA.

stevemcqueen1 · Post #15 » by **stevemcqueen1** » Fri Jul 11, 2014 2:39 pm

dandridge 10 wrote:
tontoz wrote:Passing on Noel could be a major blunder but i am not going to make that call based on summer league.

Exactly, and I am not making that call until Otto has at least been given a chance to show his play in any meaningful minutes.

Yeah, I'm still a ways away from making that call too. I'm still where I was on draft day, I think Otto was the better pick despite redshirting last year too. Reason being I think Otto was a better all around player and I prefer the BPA approach when drafting at the top of a class.

I thought Otto was the best two-way player in that class and I still believe he is a terrific fit for us from the personality side of things. I think he's going to be alright.

daSwami · Post #16 » by **daSwami** » Fri Jul 11, 2014 2:52 pm

This thread is important.

Severn Hoos · Post #17 » by **Severn Hoos** » Fri Jul 11, 2014 2:53 pm

I realize reading others' posts that mine sounds like I'm saying it was an obvious mistake to pass on Noel for Porter. Full disclosure - when the clock was ticking at #3 and Noel was on the board, I was in favor of taking Porter. At the time, I was worried about Noel's ability to stay healthy while playing big minutes in the paint, and at that point we didn't have this past season of Ariza to consider at SF, so I saw the long-term possibility of Porter as possibly a better scenario than the long-term possibility of Noel.

That said, if Noel did not have the injury concerns, I would have taken him even with Porter on the board. But of course, without the injury concerns, Noel would not have been on the board at #3. (I know, every GM said they had no concerns. And I don't believe them.)

I'm not calling this one based on 3 Summer League games (which have shown glimpses, but have not been as dominating as it might appear - for example, Mitch McGary has virtually identical stats to Noel for scoring, shooting, and rebounding). And I'm far from considering Porter a bust until he gets a chance to play significant minutes. But yes, there is a very real chance that the pick will look bad a few years from now. Just not as bad as the Bennett pick! :lol:

stevemcqueen1 · Post #18 » by **stevemcqueen1** » Fri Jul 11, 2014 3:12 pm

CntOutSmrtCrazy wrote:
stevemcqueen1 wrote:
CntOutSmrtCrazy wrote:What is really so impressive in what he's doing in this video?

For me it's the obvious court awareness. He's a nice passer and he is a really heads up defender. Very very quick hands and he's a very quick leaper. It's deceptive. He gets a ton of blocks from guys underestimating just how quick he is.

I think he has a chance to be the best shot blocker in the NBA in time.

Plus it looks like he's honed his shooting touch in the paint. That was an issue for him last year at Kentucky. If he becomes a good finisher around the basket, he'll have a role.

But there are still issues with Noah that you can't gloss over, and you can still see the big one there in that video. He is extremely undersized. Otto Porter is skinny and lacks muscle bulk in his lower body. But Otto Porter is a SF. And Otto has the frame to add bulk. Noel is a C and he has a very slight frame with narrow shoulders and joints. Marcin Gortat is a somewhat slender NBA 5. Gortat could absolutely destroy Noel.

Noel has a Joakim Noah-like skillset. But he's not as big or strong as Noah was when he came out, much less where Noah is today. And Noah has problems with big 4s and 5s. I think Noel is going to be totally reliant on quickness to defend his position and I think he's going to foul a ton whenever he plays a team with any sort of real big that can post him up.

I just don't know he looks like he's doing a lot of decent/good things against a lot of bigs who could only hope to be a bench warmer in the NBA.

Yeah the level of competition in SL is always lacking. And the style of play is so unstructured that it's not a great translation. It's definitely the type of basketball that a hyper athletic big like Noel can shine in. JaVale used to look like a world beater in SL.

But it's a continuation of the types of things he did well at Kentucky. Showed that same court awareness, active hands, instinctive ability to protect the rim then too. Plus it does look like he improved his shooting touch. He looks promising.

Wizardspride · Post #19 » by **Wizardspride** » Fri Jul 11, 2014 3:18 pm

Dark Faze wrote:The reasons teams passed on him were dumb. He didn't have a bad injury history. An ACL tear is just an ACL tear, passing on a high level prospect because of that is just idiotic. He's going to get stronger. Until then, just double in the post more. He'll more than make up for it with elite defense in the passing lanes , PNR defense, etc.

just a terrible terrible move

Fwiw, it wasn't just an ACL tear. Noel had an injury in HS as well that is widely believed to have contributed to his ACL tear.

So basically Noel suffered TWO injuries to the same knee within a four year period.

DANNYLANDOVER · Post #20 » by **DANNYLANDOVER** » Fri Jul 11, 2014 3:39 pm

gambitx777 wrote:A lot of people passed on him, and for good reason. The kid had a bad injury and he is skinny as hell. There are concerns about his frame and his longevity. Hindsight is always 20/20, and just because he is having a nice summer league does not mean that any of the reasons as to why teams passed on him are any less valid than they were at the time.

Yeah, a lot of bad GMs like Ernie. There's no hindsight involved. He should have been the pick. Otto Porter might as well have been out injured all last year, because he made zero impact, is still rail thin and had injury problems too.

Not even sure what point you're trying to make.