This spot is between Shaq and Lebron for me. My pick is not set in stone, but tentatively I’ll cast
my vote for Lebron James.imo, Lebron’s peak is top 5 ever. Though I’d rate it marginally behind Shaq’s peak, what adds to the impressiveness of Lebron’s peak is that people can’t even agree on when his was (see this recent thread as proof:
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1330624). Some people think is was ‘13, some people think it was ‘12, and yet others think his best year was ‘09.
Why does that make it more impressive? Because it means he had THREE separate years where he was playing at approximately similar (again: top 5 all-time) peak level. Compare that to Shaq or KG, for examples, for whom there is literally no debate at all as to where their respective peaks were, because they both have a pretty apparent and steep taper on either side of it.
Take a look at the AVERAGE of those three seasons for Lebron:
PER 31.4……
AVERAGE over three seasons! The only players for whom you can find a combination of any three seasons that average to a PER of 31.4 or higher are Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain. Period. In fact, Jordan and Chamberlain are the only other players who have even had a SINGLE season as high as 31.4.
And frankly, ‘10 Lebron isn’t far behind those seasons-->PER of 31.1, giving him a 31.3 PER over four non-consecutive seasons. The only other player with a 4-season combo of >/= 31.3 PER is Michael Jordan.
His combined
playoff PER for ‘09, ‘12, ‘13--->31.1. The ONLY other player in NBA history who has a playoff PER of 31.1 or higher over any three (potentially non-consecutive) seasons is Michael Jordan. Shaq is the only other guy who even has a three-season combo playoff PER >30, fwiw.
Now obviously PER loves Lebron’s efficiency (because it favors efficient scoring). But even prior to the hyper-elite shooting efficiency of the last couple seasons, his production was on a super-elite level, just by way of sheer volume. Let's use a simplistic method that ignores shooting efficiency: just per 100 stats, pts+reb+ast+stl+blk-to`s……
Lebron's best season by this method is '09: 61.8.
Comparing a few other top tier stars by this method…..
*Shaquille O'Neal's best ('00) is just shy at 61.4
*Kevin Garnett's best ('04) is 60.5.
*Michael Jordan's best ('93) is 60.2 (he also had three seasons----`87, `90 and `91---at 60.1 each).
*Karl Malone's best ('97) is 59.7.
*Dwyane Wade's best ('09) is 59.2.
*Hakeem Olajuwon's ('93) is 58.6.
*Tim Duncan's best ('05, surprisingly; though should be noted this was the first year he began playing somewhat reduced minutes) is 57.5.
*Tracy McGrady's best ('03) is 57.5
*Kobe Bryant's best ('06) is 57.1
*Kevin Durant's best ('14) is 56.7.
*Kareem's best (pre-1973 data unavailable) is perhaps '77 at 59.6 (NOT counting TO`s, though, which were not yet recorded).
*Charles Barkley's best ('91) is 55.2
*Larry Bird's best ('85) is 54.5.
*Magic's best ('87) is 53.1.
In short, Lebron’s best season by this method (which ignores the efficiency that inflates his PER) is THE BEST SEASON ON RECORD for which we have per 100 data. Though if we wanted to also take a look at efficiency…….
Lebron in this ‘09 season ALSO had a higher TS% than ‘00 Shaq, ‘04 Kevin Garnett, ‘87 and ‘93 Jordan, ‘09 Dwyane Wade, ‘93 Hakeem Olajuwon, ‘05 Tim Duncan, '03 Tracy McGrady, ‘06 Kobe Bryant, and ‘85 Larry Bird.
I`ll also quote Joao Saraiva from a recent thread for some more in-depth comparison specifically between Lebron and Shaq:
Joao Saraiva wrote:Peak
LeBron 2009
RS: 28.4 PPG 7.6 RPG 7.2 APG 1.7 SPG 1.1 BPG 3 TOPG 31.7 PER 59.1ts% and 31.8 WS/48. 66 wins in the regular season with a cast composed by old big Z, old Ben Wallace, Delonte West (average SG at best) and Mo Williams (Just see where Mo's career has gone after leaving Cle). I have to be impressed with that record. LeBron had arguably the quickest 1st step EVER, and he scored in the paint with a better % than Shaq at his peak. How insane is that? He was also #2 at DPOY, and it was well deserved.
Playoffs: 35.3 PPG 9.1 RPG 7.3 APG 1.6 SPG 0.9 BPG 2.7 TOPG 37.4 PER 61.8 ts% abd 39.9 WS/48. He was playing at GOAT level. His driving was superb, he was hitting huge shots, 3 pointers from half court, fade away 3s in the clutch and having some of his most amazing performances ever. Games 1 and 5 against Orlando were insane, and he also had a great great one vs Atlanta. He was eliminated against Orlando averaging 38.5 PPG 8.3 RPG 8.0 APG 1.2 SPG and 1.2 BPG at 59.1ts%. And that was against a team with DPOY Dwight, defending the paint. Volume/efficiency scoring is truly amazing.
Too bad this season didn't end up with the championship, because if it did it could actually be the one to challange MJ for the GOAT peak.
LeBron 2012:
RS: 27.1 PPG 6.9 RPG 6.2 APG 1.9 SPG 0.8 BPG 30.7 PER 60.5ts% 29.8 WS/48
PS: 30.3 PPG 9.7 RPG 5.6 APG 1.9 SPG 0.7 BPG 30.3 PER 57.6ts% 28.4 WS/48
LeBron lead his team in 4 stats while winning a tittle (only 2 others did that - Magic and Duncan), provided some of the greatest performances EVER when his team was down in the playoffs: game 4 vs Indiana, game 6 vs Boston. Also in the finals against 3 HOFERs LeBron didn't have one subpar game, ending those series with an amazing statline and ending with almost two triple doubles in the last two games (1 rebound away in game 4).
Shaquille O'Neal 2000
RS: 29.7 PPG 13.6 RPG 3.8 APG 0.5 SPG 2.8 BPG 30.6 PER 57.8ts% 28.3 WS/48
30.7 PPG 15.4 RPG 3.1 APG 0.6 SPG 2.4 BPG 30.5 PER 55.6ts% 22.4WS/48
He was great, I have Shaq at #3 at peak all time, but I just feel LeBron has the edge here.
Longevity
LeBron has now played 11 seasons in the NBA. Shaq has made his entire career. Still:
Above 25 PER seasons: 9
Above 30 PER seasons: 4
Shaq:
Above 25 PER seasons: 10
Above 30 PER seasons: 3
Above 25.0 WS/48 seasons
LeBron 5 seasons
Shaq 5 seasons
Above 30.0 WS/48 seasons
LeBron 2 seasons
Shaq 0
For the ones saying Shaq is a better playoff performer:
playoffs above 25 PER:
LeBron 5 (9 apparences)
Shaq 9 (17 playoff appearences)
playoffs above 30 PER
LeBron 3 (2 seasons above Shaq's best)
Shaq 3
WS/48 above 25
LeBron 4 (3 better seasons than Shaq's best and one equal)
Shaq 1
You can still place Shaq ahead, but even if you do so, it's not by a big margin. LeBron will catch up and will have both better peak and longevity, if he doesn't have both already.
In short, given his extraordinarily high (and
broad) peak, two-way impact, consistency and durability thus far…...I’d rate his prime equal
or better vs. anyone (except perhaps Jordan).
Aside from the unusually large number of “peak-level” seasons, his durability helps make up for any lesser longevity in a prime-vs.-prime comparison with some other players he’s in contention with for this spot (a disadvantage which exists only because his prime is still in progress).
Take a comparison with Shaq, for instance:
If we were to call Shaq’s prime ‘94 thru ‘05 (12 seasons).....Shaq played 801 rs games in that span.
If we’re that liberal about Shaq’s prime, I think we’d fairly have to call Lebron’s prime ‘05 thru present: 10 seasons, but 763 rs games. So in games played, Lebron’s prime is basically just half of a season behind Shaq already.
Once he`s played his career out (such that longevity no longer counts against him), I think his ATL ceiling is indeed very very VERY high.
Because Shaq had several more non-prime---but still effective---seasons gives him a significant longevity argument over Lebron, which is what makes this spot difficult for me to pick.
Against guys like Magic or Bird, longevity is already barely an argument they can claim over him: he`s played 842 rs games (despite 16 missed in a player hold-out). Magic played 906, and Bird 897…….so he`s less than one full season away from over-taking them both.
And RAPM data will only tend to inflate his status even further.
So I’m not dead set on voting for him for #6, but the above is why I cannot see placing him any lower than 7 on this ATL.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
