RealGM Top 100 List #6

[ardee]

I echo the sentiments of GC Pantalones.

KG and Oscar is an interesting comparison. Their career paths are rather similar.. early statistical domination, combining in a dominant Playoff performance in '63/'03 and an MVP in '64/'04.

Team goes down the toilet and they suffer for several years until they get traded and help spearhead GOAT level teams in Milwaukee/Boston. An injury the year after the title and they're never really the same again.

I think Oscar is a markedly superior Playoff performer in their primes, but what KG gives you in '08 and '12 is interesting. '08 KG vs '71 Oscar is just an interesting debate overall too. Do the with-without wizards have any insight into that?

And man. It says something about how boring this World cup final has been that I'm browsing this thread right now

Sent from my GT-I9300 using RealGM Forums mobile app

[trex_8063]

I see LeBron and Shaq as the clear candidates at #6 for various reasons. Both are all-time talents that have displayed a rare level of physical dominance. None of the other players in the top 10 discussion (Hakeem, Magic, Bird, KG, Oscar) can match their combined peak, prime and physical dominance.


Prime RS:
LeBron (09-14): 30.2 PER, .613 TS%, 120 ORtg, 101 DRtg, 104.0 WS, .290 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:advanced
Shaq (94-05): 28.5 PER, .584 TS%, 114 ORtg, 98 DRtg, 145.9 WS, .234 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:advanced

Prime PS:
LeBron (09-14): 29.4 PER, .599 TS%, 119 ORtg, 102 DRtg, 26.3 WS, .270 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_advanced
Shaq (94-05): 27.5 PER, .567 TS%, 112 ORtg, 103 DRtg, 28.7 WS, .202 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_advanced

Prime RS Per 100 Poss:
LeBron Prime (09-14) RS: 38.5 PTS, 10.4 RB, 9.9 AST, 2.3 STL, 1.1 BLK, 4.6 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:per_poss
Shaq Prime (94-05) RS: 37.5 PTS, 16.3 RB, 4.1 AST, 0.9 STL, 3.4 BLK, 3.9 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:per_poss

Prime PS Per 100 Poss:
LeBron Prime (09-14) PS Per 100: 37.1 PTS, 11.3 RB, 8.1 AST, 2.3 STL, 1.2 BLK, 4.2 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_per_poss
Shaq Prime (94-05) PS Per 100: 35.8 PTS, 16.9 RB, 4.1 AST, 0.8 STL, 3.1 BLK, 4.1 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_per_poss

-----

I don't know if you realized it but you compared LeBron's 6 year prime to Shaq's 12 year prime. The key words in that sentence is 6 and 12. 12 is double 6. So Shaq's prime was double the length of LeBron's which should be taken into account.

If we're going to count '94 and '05 as part of Shaq's prime, I would frankly open up Lebron's prime to include everything from '04-05 season on (and said as much in a prior post). So that would look like.....

Prime RS:
LeBron (05-14): 28.8 PER, .590 TS%, 118 ORtg, 102 DRtg, 163.5 WS, .260 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:advanced
Shaq (94-05): 28.5 PER, .584 TS%, 114 ORtg, 98 DRtg, 145.9 WS, .234 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:advanced

Prime PS:
LeBron (05-14): 27.7 PER, .578 TS%, 116 ORtg, 101 DRtg, 33.8 WS, .242 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_advanced
Shaq (94-05): 27.5 PER, .567 TS%, 112 ORtg, 103 DRtg, 28.7 WS, .202 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_advanced

Prime RS Per 100 Poss:
LeBron Prime (05-14) RS: 37.9 PTS, 10.0 RB, 9.4 AST, 2.3 STL, 1.1 BLK, 4.4 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:per_poss
Shaq Prime (94-05) RS: 37.5 PTS, 16.3 RB, 4.1 AST, 0.9 STL, 3.4 BLK, 3.9 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:per_poss

Prime PS Per 100 Poss:
LeBron Prime (05-14) PS Per 100: 36.3 PTS, 10.9 RB, 8.4 AST, 2.2 STL, 1.1 BLK, 4.5 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_per_poss
Shaq Prime (94-05) PS Per 100: 35.8 PTS, 16.9 RB, 4.1 AST, 0.8 STL, 3.1 BLK, 4.1 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_per_poss


......Now we are comparing 12 seasons to 10 seasons, though more accurately (recognizing the lack of injury trouble Lebron has had, which cannot be said for Shaq): 801 rs games for Shaq vs. 763 for Lebron. That's more or less an apples to apples comparison, imo.
And as you can see there is NOTHING Lebron had the higher rating in from SactoKingsfan's analysis that he doesn't still have the lead in. That lead is just smaller in some places. And there are now two categories by which Lebron has the lead, where he didn't within SactoKingsfan's analysis (rs WS and post-season WS). Note Lebron now has the edge in every single post-season advanced stat category listed (and all except DRtg for rs).

[E-Balla]

KG did underachieve quite a bit in the playoffs:

97: -7.48
98: 0.53
99: 0.87
00: 4.37
01: 1.42
02: -6.26
03: -3.62
04: 3.96
Overall: 0.80 SRS

In his Minnesota playoff prime from 99-04 his teams O ratings were -1.0 relative to their opponent. He had a .513 TS%, 103 O rating, and 3.5 TOV/game in that span.

He certainly let his teammates down offensively in 2004. His teammates actually performed well in the playoffs offensively but KG's offense was bad: .513 TS%, 100 O rating, over 4 TOV/game.



00 Shaq, 11 Dirk, 03 Duncan, 04 KG, 94 Hakeem. This is what their top 6 playoff minutes getter averaged in the playoffs:

Code: Select all

            PTS   TS%   TRB    AST
Shaq      9.8    0.511   4.0   2.6
Hakeem    10.5   0.536   4.4   3.3
Duncan    10.2   0.512   4.3   2.1
Garnett   10.7   0.551   3.5   2.3
Dirk      10.5   0.557   4.3   2.8


Code: Select all

      PER   WS/48   O rating   D rating   Ortg - Drtg
Shaq      13.7   0.090   108.8   108.3   0.5
Hakeem    14.1   0.101   108.2   106.5   1.7
Duncan    13.1   0.111   103.5   98.7   4.8
Garnett   14.9   0.114   110.8   103.5   7.3
Dirk      15.9   0.134   113.8   107.0   6.8

If you take out Shaq and KG's contributions during their 04 series, KG's cast had a .528 TS% and 107 O rating compared to Shaq's .513 TS% and 104 O rating. That is Peak KG vs out of peak Shaq and he still got outplayed by Shaq.

Yeah I've been looking more into KG and the whole "bad supporting cast" argument and outside of the years he completely missed the playoffs (not counting 05 where he should've made the playoffs with that team), and 03 he should've won a lot more. I'm actually lower on KG's prime than ever before. I mean those teams around him weren't that bad in 02 (they were actually good this year and they had the best G rotation in the league next to the Mavs), 04, or 05 and they underachieved. I mean the front office was horribly incompetent but I'm not really buying into the TB/Chauncey/Wally/Cassell/Spree wasn't enough argument. Especially not when you consider their performances in those seasons.

The problem is that those guys didn't play for him very long or concurrently, and their cast behind them was horrid.

Cassell played for them for only two seasons. One of those he was at 1500 minutes. When healthy, they won 58 games.

And in 05 even when Cassell played the team still wasn't winning enough to make the playoffs.

Sprewell played of them for only two seasons as well. They were his last two seasons before retirement. He was sub-50 TS% and sub 15 PER, below average. He was an athletic forward in his mid-30's and offered little.

Sprewell was always a guy that put up mediocre to bad numbers (at best). Hell you almost described his career post 99 in that post. How about his 18 per, 20/4/4 performance in the 04 playoffs? He was a bit washed but still a good starter in 04. In 05 he was washed up but about average. I'd take Spree in those years over a few of Duncan's guards (and his 04 year is better than any guard play Duncan got in the early 00s).

Wally Szczerbiak was one of the worst all-star selections ever and was a limited player. His shooting was useful, but he was closer to a specialist than a star.

Wally was a good role player. Again he was clearly above average in any way and he's about as good as Nic Batum I'd say.

Billups, like those two, played only two seasons as well. This was before he broke out in Detroit. He was not an all-star player in Minnesota.

First off Wally played in Minny for awhile. Secondly this is false. Chauncey played his way into a good contract and a starting role in 02. He went from 16/4/7 per 36 in 02 to 19/4/4 in 03. Both years he was super efficient and he had a 18 PER that last year in Minnesota. He also put up 22/5/6 in the playoffs and he didn't take another leap in his game until after the rule changes. Seems more like he needed a shot (blame that on the coach) but he was still great when he played (and he played 29 minutes a night).

Brandon was great for them, but he only played 2.5 seasons for them. Mid-season trade and his last season was wrecked by injuries. He was a pretty good player but nothing spectacular.

Brandon was very good. He had a 21 PER with Minnesota and they might've only got 200 games out of him but that's 200 games with a high level PG and that mid season trade was half the season (he played 21 out of Minnesota's 50 games). He also averaged a 21 PER in the 3 series he played next to KG.

Yeah, what a great cast. And what was worse was the bench behind them. The fact that you listed Sprewell makes me wonder if you even looked at his supporting cast at all besides just reading the names.

No one said it was a great cast just that he should've done more because those teams weren't "that" bad. The starting lineups were often above average (along with a weak bench outside of 01 iirc).

[magicmerl]

This is impressive stuff. I have picked Shaq, but this is a good arguement that LeBron has the edge over Shaq. I'm strongly considering changing my vote.

Spoiler:

I see LeBron and Shaq as the clear candidates at #6 for various reasons. Both are all-time talents that have displayed a rare level of physical dominance. None of the other players in the top 10 discussion (Hakeem, Magic, Bird, KG, Oscar) can match their combined peak, prime and physical dominance.


Prime RS:
LeBron (09-14): 30.2 PER, .613 TS%, 120 ORtg, 101 DRtg, 104.0 WS, .290 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:advanced
Shaq (94-05): 28.5 PER, .584 TS%, 114 ORtg, 98 DRtg, 145.9 WS, .234 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:advanced

Prime PS:
LeBron (09-14): 29.4 PER, .599 TS%, 119 ORtg, 102 DRtg, 26.3 WS, .270 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_advanced
Shaq (94-05): 27.5 PER, .567 TS%, 112 ORtg, 103 DRtg, 28.7 WS, .202 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_advanced

Prime RS Per 100 Poss:
LeBron Prime (09-14) RS: 38.5 PTS, 10.4 RB, 9.9 AST, 2.3 STL, 1.1 BLK, 4.6 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:per_poss
Shaq Prime (94-05) RS: 37.5 PTS, 16.3 RB, 4.1 AST, 0.9 STL, 3.4 BLK, 3.9 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:per_poss

Prime PS Per 100 Poss:
LeBron Prime (09-14) PS Per 100: 37.1 PTS, 11.3 RB, 8.1 AST, 2.3 STL, 1.2 BLK, 4.2 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_per_poss
Shaq Prime (94-05) PS Per 100: 35.8 PTS, 16.9 RB, 4.1 AST, 0.8 STL, 3.1 BLK, 4.1 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_per_poss

-----

I don't know if you realized it but you compared LeBron's 6 year prime to Shaq's 12 year prime. The key words in that sentence is 6 and 12. 12 is double 6. So Shaq's prime was double the length of LeBron's which should be taken into account.

If we're going to count '94 and '05 as part of Shaq's prime, I would frankly open up Lebron's prime to include everything from '04-05 season on (and said as much in a prior post). So that would look like.....

Prime RS:
LeBron (05-14): 28.8 PER, .590 TS%, 118 ORtg, 102 DRtg, 163.5 WS, .260 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:advanced
Shaq (94-05): 28.5 PER, .584 TS%, 114 ORtg, 98 DRtg, 145.9 WS, .234 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:advanced

Prime PS:
LeBron (05-14): 27.7 PER, .578 TS%, 116 ORtg, 101 DRtg, 33.8 WS, .242 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_advanced
Shaq (94-05): 27.5 PER, .567 TS%, 112 ORtg, 103 DRtg, 28.7 WS, .202 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_advanced

Prime RS Per 100 Poss:
LeBron Prime (05-14) RS: 37.9 PTS, 10.0 RB, 9.4 AST, 2.3 STL, 1.1 BLK, 4.4 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:per_poss
Shaq Prime (94-05) RS: 37.5 PTS, 16.3 RB, 4.1 AST, 0.9 STL, 3.4 BLK, 3.9 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:per_poss

Prime PS Per 100 Poss:
LeBron Prime (05-14) PS Per 100: 36.3 PTS, 10.9 RB, 8.4 AST, 2.2 STL, 1.1 BLK, 4.5 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_per_poss
Shaq Prime (94-05) PS Per 100: 35.8 PTS, 16.9 RB, 4.1 AST, 0.8 STL, 3.1 BLK, 4.1 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_per_poss


......Now we are comparing 12 seasons to 10 seasons, though more accurately (recognizing the lack of injury trouble Lebron has had, which cannot be said for Shaq): 801 rs games for Shaq vs. 763 for Lebron. That's more or less an apples to apples comparison, imo.
And as you can see there is NOTHING Lebron had the higher rating in from SactoKingsfan's analysis that he doesn't still have the lead in. That lead is just smaller in some places. And there are now two categories by which Lebron has the lead, where he didn't within SactoKingsfan's analysis (rs WS and post-season WS). Note Lebron now has the edge in every single post-season advanced stat category listed (and all except DRtg for rs).

I have changed my vote from Shaq to LeBron

[ronnymac2]

One critique of Shaq I see is that his injury concerns caused his teams to underachieve. In the last thread, I typed out the teams that defeated Shaq's squads in the playoffs in the years he missed significant time and did not win a title. Every single one of them was a Conference Champion. Many of them were NBA champions. Four played at an all-time level either the entire season or at least at the time they faced Shaq's teams in the playoffs.

An Unbiased Fan did answer. I want to thank An Unbiased Fan for at the very least considering the question of when did Shaq's non-title teams underachieve in the playoffs when he missed time in the REG SEA. I invite others to do the same.



A phenomenon I have observed regarding Shaquille O'Neal is that the evolution of his game is rarely considered. With other players, we have clear eyes in regards to how they changed their games, how they improved. Magic Johnson went from having little range to improving his outside jumper and eventually developing a potent 3-point shot (also see my post about Magic's 4 peaks). At first, Kevin Garnett was a gangly 7-footer with small forward handles. He moved to PF, developed an elite jumper, took on a volume scoring load, became the premier pick-n-roll scrambler in NBA history, and showed himself to be at a near savant level when it came to understanding spacing on both ends of the floor. Hakeem was raw Akeem with a ballistic motor on defense that sometimes caused his own foul trouble and was turnover-prone. He became the most complete defender since Bill Russell and was the foundational piece of the first ever "Dominant Big with 4 3-point shooters" strategy in part because of his improvement in reading where the help defense is coming from.

With Shaq, he was big and dunked when he came in, and he was big and he dunked when he was at his best. Simple game. Even easier to simplify one's understanding of his game that way. It's harder to parse out the weaknesses and strengths year-to-year.

This will be a qualitative analysis of Shaquille O'Neal's 5 vs. 5 game throughout his career and the evolution we saw in his game. Though the year-to-year and pre-prime to peak changes aren't as stark as with other players, they do exist, and I hope to shed some light on them. This is not my explanation for why I am voting for Shaq here, and to be honest, I don't care who actually wins.


1993

Spoiler:

Shaq entered a situation where he was already the best player on the team. He put up gaudy stats, especially in the rebounding and shot-blocking department, but he wasn't a great defender. Win Shares put this as Shaq's 2nd or 3rd best defensive season. I'm not sure if it's in Shaq's top 10. Young Shaq had a ton of energy to expend, but he did so in the wrong way on defense, constantly looking to block shots.

Offensively, his scoring was uneven. He was experimenting with facing up because it was easier to use his quickness and core strength advantage to get the defender on his hip and slow the defender down (Like LeBron James does when he drives). His back-to-the-basket game was simple and awkward. He wasn't comfortable catching and attacking decisively from 8 feet, either by way of the jump hook or by drop steps, or backing down. He was a dominant offensive rebounder and finisher though. He always had that strength and explosion to grab a board, shed a defender, and finish. Defenses are out of whack and chaotic after an offensive rebound. In all honesty, Shaq might be the best ever at converting offensive rebounds into points. I'd love to see a stat on that.

As for passing, which is the most important part of any player's game in my opinion — Shaq was unselfish and creative, but he had a difficult time seeing where the defenses were coming from and he lacked patience. He'd catch, spin baseline, encounter a second defender, and instead of seeing the cutter, he'd try to drive through and be called for an offensive foul. A potential dunk for a teammate turned into a Shaq turnover. Things like this happened often. Shaq's turnovers per game that year don't match up with the scoring load and offensive opportunities he was creating. Basically all of Shaq's value this year is on the offensive glass in my opinion.

So this is where Shaq starts off at. He's MAYBE a top-10 player. Let's be generous and call him a top-10 player. He's not close to being on the level of top-5 guys. Hakeem Olajuwon is at his peak this year. Shaq isn't in the same stratosphere as Dream. It's the difference between 2014 LeBron James and 2014 Goran Dragic.

1994

Spoiler:

From the #4 Thread:

1994 Shaq didn't have Horace Grant, had poor depth and coaching, and had a rookie Penny Hardaway. This is likely the least talented team he ever had in his prime, and this was when he was at his most raw aside from his rookie year. Yet he lifted the Magic to 50 wins with 29 points, 13 rebounds, and almost 60 percent shooting from the field. He also cut his turnovers down from an atrocious 3.8 per game in his rookie year in '93 to a more acceptable 2.7 in 1994. Orlando was the 3rd best offense in the league that year. In my opinion, it is the most valuable season Shaq ever had outside of maybe 2000. It doesn't get as much talk as his peak or even 1995 and 1996, but it's truly a special season.

Shaq had his quantum leap year in his second season. This IS a stark contrast between years (and it probably won't happen again). You can argue he plays at a Top-5 level this season. With Skiles and Penny, you've got 2 excellent passers on the wing now, meaning when Shaq gets deep position, it's over. This is the first instance you can cogently argue Shaq was treating NBA-level defenders as if they were Barbecue Chicken.

One interesting point: Orlando was 49-32 with O'Neal playing. In 49 wins, Shaq averaged over 30 points and 14 rebounds on 62.7 percent shooting and rocked a 124 individual ORTG. In the 32 losses, Shaq averaged 27.5 and 12 and shot 57.1 percent with a 112 individual offensive rating. This team, more than any other Shaq ever played on except maybe 2000, hinged on Shaq's play and production.

What caused the change in his game? One is making quicker reactions to how defenses played him. The other is a better understanding of what his strengths were. He still messed around with facing up and playing the pick-n-roll, but his power post game was rounding into form. His defensive improvement came from not chasing every blocked shot opportunity anymore and decreasing his foul rate.

In the playoffs, Orlando was swept by Indiana. Shaq in my honest opinion reverted back to his rookie year strengths of offensive rebounding and activity. Implementing changes during or before the REG SEA is one thing, but applying them in the playoffs is another. Shaq was a playoff rookie.

1995

Spoiler:

This is an important year because of his increased responsibility and ability to translate it to strong team results. He's finally paired with elite offensive talent. Penny takes his quantum leap this year and becomes arguably the best perimeter offensive player in the league. Horace Grant is the perfect connector PF between an elite offensive C and an elite wing because he can play pick-n-roll with Penny, HI/LOW off the pick-n-roll with Shaq, be a high post passing hub for Penny's intelligent cuts, spread the floor for Penny or Shaq post ups with his elite mid-range shot, cut when opposing PFs double Shaq, and hit the offensive glass. They've got shooters in Scott and Anderson, too.

Orlando was indeed an all-time great offensive team this season (Better than 115 ORTG). Orlando's 5-man lineups featuring Shaq/Grant/Scott/Anderson/Penny must have put up scary results, because the team had 0 depth behind them. O'Neal took on a greater offensive usage than before, yet Scott, Grant, and Hardaway had arguably the greatest offensive years of their careers this year, too. To me, that speaks to Shaq's portability. This team's distribution of offensive talent and responsibility is more balanced than the 2-man attack the Shaq/Kobe teams were, but Shaq got his while allowing everybody else to flourish as well.

I believe acrossthecourt pointed out how Shaq's hands allowed him to catch wobbly post entry passes, snap them back out in a milli-second as the help defender(s) closed in, then catch a second post-entry passes once the help cleared or was in no man's land and Shaq had established even deeper position. This was the first season where you really saw the positive effects of this.

I'd also like to point out that the team was at a disadvantage defensively. Penny was the team's best perimeter defender, but he was forced to defend PGs a lot of the time (if and when Penny comes up in this project, I'd like to explain why Orlando's team construction wasn't beneficial for Penny on either end of the floor, and that despite this, he was still amazing). Anderson, Scott, and the bench are below average, too. Horace is outstanding and a great defensive fit next to Shaq, but that's about it.

Shaq's offensive improvements in 1994 and 1995 continued into the 1995 playoffs. There were blunders like Game 5 vs. Chicago where Shaq kept rushing and missed like 12 shots in the first half. But he set a record for offensive rebounds in a playoff game and pushed on, made great defensive plays in the fourth quarter and helped his team win the game. He averaged over 6 assists per game against Houston and continued trusting his teammates despite Scott and Anderson shooting poorly.

1996

Spoiler:

Largely the same as in 1995. Orlando's offense through the first 2 rounds of the 1996 playoffs looked like San Antonio in the 2014 Finals (ORTG over 120). Shaq was downright scary against the Hawks with 27.8 points, 4.6 assists, over 5 offensive rebounds, under 3 turnovers and over 63 percent from the field. The offense died in the ECF when Grant went down and Scott and Anderson combined to shoot under 29 percent against Chicago's #1 defense, but Shaq and Penny played great. Shaq averaged 27 points, 4 assists, over 3.5 offensive rebounds, over 4 turnovers, and shot 64 percent from the field against Longley/Rodman with MJ/Pip harassing him and his post-entry passers.

What I see is more of Shaq's gradual improvement as a passer. His power post game is effective, and the offensive rebounding is a mainstay. He does not have the range on his jump hook or turnaround jumper that he works for later. He also uses the baseline turnaround as a one-on-one move, whereas at his peak, he used it more as a counter when teams formed a wall to keep him from moving into the middle of the paint. This takes him out of offensive rebounding position without actually stirring havoc on the defense. This is something that needs improvement, because it is the equivalent of MJ or LBJ jacking up contested 3's without making the defense work.

1997-1999

Spoiler:

In 1997 and 1998, the results up until LA faces Utah are stellar. I see Shaq in 1997 as having a down year offensively but an improvement defensively. LA was a -3 defense this year with 1997 being Shaq's best in terms of BLK% and second in terms of defensive rebounding rate for his career. Only played 51 games, i believe because of a sprained MCL injury. Amazing against POR, but his volume scoring was cut down against Utah. I believe he only went above 25 points once in the series. Utah, however, is arguably the best team to never win a title.

In 1998, offense goes back up to normal levels. Highest usage of his career, and highest scoring rate of his career as well for the #2 offense in the league. Defense goes back down, however. In my opinion, the defense took another dip in 1999 while offense stayed the same.

I believe ShaqAttack3234 has said 1998 Shaq improved his range on the jump hook and all-around post moves, and there's solid evidence for that tangibly helping his offense.

2000-2004

Spoiler:

Finally, another big jump. Shaq began using his baseline turnaround more intelligently. He was always at his best catching the ball on the move, and the triangle put him in position to do this. Even with the worst 3-point spacing of his career, he put up his best all-around REG SEA. Best range he had had thus far on his hooks and jumpers (posed a threat from 12-14 feet away even when he didn't go to it often). Best he ever was at catching on the move and in one motion elevating and twisting around and lightly bouncing the ball off the glass for the score.

Everybody knows the defense improved. With Glen Rice and AC Green as the starting forwards, LA was still #1 in the REG SEA in defensive rating. This was truly a DPOY-worthy season, though Mourning, Mutombo, and possibly Duncan and Robinson are guys I'd have over Shaq this year.

3.8 assists per game. When Michael Jordan came back in 1996, he operated from the post more than ever before and averaged 4.3, 4.3, and 3.5 assists per game over the next 3 title-winning seasons. I'm not saying Shaq was the creator MJ the wing player was, but both were volume scorers who used the post under the same system, and Shaq's assist averages look mighty nice for C.

I'd put 2001 playoff Shaq at his absolute peak because of greater patience in the triangle (as well as decimating the greatest playoff competition he ever faced in the 3-peat years). The next few years show small declines in athletic ability and small gains in passing.

Despite having inconsistent outside shooting, LA had great offenses these years. The off-court problems Shaq and Kobe had were clear, but their on-court synergy was something special to watch.

2005-2006

Spoiler:

I just want to talk about the dynamic between Dwyane Wade and Shaq. Despite Wade having a meh jumper and being all-out aggressive going towards the basketball, I think he used Shaq to his optimal benefit. To me this is an example of why Wade is great off-ball. He used the attention Shaq got to cut to the basketball where Shaq would find him or hit the offensive glass when Shaq would miss bunnies amidst two defenders contesting.

By 2006, Shaq's lack of mobility is seen in unsustained offensive attacks and shrinking defensive impact. He dominated Detroit's best-in-the-league frontcourt in the ECF but struggled producing points himself against Dampier in the Finals.

2007-2008

Problems from 2006 are full-blown now. Still an offensive threat because of strength inside, passing, and spacial awareness, but not for prolonged periods.

2009

PHX medical staff does miracles.

2010-2011

He hurt Cleveland more than he helped. However, when he played with Boston, I thought their 5-man units with Rondo, Shaq, and the BIG 3 were best-in-the-league good. Shaq's disadvantages on defense were negated by Garnett and also Rondo's solid pick-n-roll defense, and he was a dominant finisher with Allen/Pierce/KG providing super spacing and Rondo's passing.


I do hope this helps better understand Shaq's career arc. He wasn't close to being the same player in 1993, 1995, 1998, 2000, 2005, and 2011. He dunked a lot each year, but he wasn't the same player.

[RayBan-Sematra]

This is impressive stuff. I have picked Shaq, but this is a good arguement that LeBron has the edge over Shaq. I'm strongly considering changing my vote.

Why don't you read this post I made earlier regarding Shaq VS Lebron.
It is a pro-Shaq argument based primarily around playoff performance and overall longevity.
Keep in mind that I stopped at 9 years because Lebron has only had 9 playoff appearances.

Playoff PER

Lebron
Top 5 years : 29.1
Top 9 years : 27.7

Shaq
Top 5 years : 29.9
Top 9 years : 28.9

Shaq's average production over his first 9 years is greater then Lebron's.
Even looking at a shorter 5 year Peak span Shaq still has the clear edge.

He also has a sizable advantage when it comes to consistency which is addressed through the PER stat below and the elimination series stat further below it.

Number of years with a playoff PER above 26
Shaq : 9
Lebron : 5
_______________________________

Number of failures or disappointments in playoff elimination series.
Lebron : 5 (over an 9 year span)
Shaq : 2 (over a 13 year span)

Number of elite Finals performances
Shaq : 4 in 6 appearances.
Lebron : 2 in 5 appearances.

-------------

Shaq was clearly a significantly better playoff performer through their first 11 years.
Beyond that Shaq still has a 4 year edge in overall quality years.

Lebron is amazing and the sky still appears to be the limit for him career wise however let us not overrate him in the present.

Shaq was a significantly better playoff performer through their first 9-11 years and still has a sizable edge in true longevity.
For that reason I think it is entirely unreasonable to consider putting Lebron over him at this point.

[magicmerl]

This is impressive stuff. I have picked Shaq, but this is a good arguement that LeBron has the edge over Shaq. I'm strongly considering changing my vote.

Why don't you read this post I made earlier regarding Shaq VS Lebron.
It is a pro-Shaq argument based primarily around playoff performance and overall longevity.
Keep in mind that I stopped at 9 years because Lebron has only had 9 playoff appearances.

Playoff PER

Lebron
Top 5 years : 29.1
Top 9 years : 27.7

Shaq
Top 5 years : 29.9
Top 9 years : 28.9

How did you calculate these? Because based on BBR, if you average their PER for their top 5 years I get

LeBron Top5 Years (09-10, 12-14) Playoff PER 31.1 (the five year AVERAGE is better than Shaq's BEST year)
Shaq Top5 Years (97-00, 03) Playoff PER 30.0

Or if you make it a weighted by minutes played:
LeBron Top5 Years minute weighted Playoff PER 30.79
Shaq Top5 Years minute weighted Playoff PER 30.22

So I don't agree with your numbers, and they don't support the conclusion you are trying to reach (i.e. that Shaq produced more than LeBron in the playoffs).

I'm also uncomfortable about rating PER too highly. I think that Win Shares are a better all-in-one stat. And LeBron CRUSHES Shaq in a similar Win Share comparison:
Year Shaq Playoff WS/LeBron Playoff WS
#1 4.7/5.8 - LeBron wins
#2 3.9/5.2 - LeBron wins
#3 3.8/4.8 - LeBron wins
#4 3.7/4.3 - LeBron wins
#5 3/3.8 - LeBron wins
#6 2.4/3.7 - LeBron wins
#7 2.1/2.3 - LeBron wins
#8 1.6/2.2 - LeBron wins
#9 1.5/1.7 - LeBron wins

Shaq's average production over his first 9 years is greater then Lebron's.
Even looking at a shorter 5 year Peak span Shaq still has the clear edge.

Please disclose your methodology for calculating 5 year PERs, as I was unable to reproduce your results.

Number of failures or disappointments in playoff elimination series.
Lebron : 5 (over an 9 year span)
Shaq : 2 (over a 13 year span)

I think that the 'disappointment' narrative for LeBron is entirely overblown. Quite frankly, I don't care about it unless it relates to actual winning. So for me, that means the 2011 finals, and that's basically all. Even then, before the season started that year I decided that making the finals would be my 'expected result' for the heat, so as a team they met my expectations for that year.

[colts18]

Well I'm open to things. I'm leaning toward Magic or LeBron or maybe Shaq. Anyone got more info on Shaq pre-00?

93: The Magic improve by 8 SRS points when Shaq comes even though he is the only major change

xRAPM: +4.2 (8th in the league)

94: Averages 29/13, 60 FG%, improves team to 50 wins

xRAPM: +6.8 (2nd)

95: Magic improve again to 57 wins and the finals. Averages 29/11 (leads league in scoring). He becomes the only guy who beats prime Michael Jordan head to head in the playoffs. Outplays peak Hakeem 1 on 1 in the finals.

xRAPM: +6.4 (2nd)

96: Shaq misses a lot of games but was still impactful. The Magic had a 7 SRS in the games he played. In the playoffs he averaged 27/11, 64 FG% against the GOAT 72 win Bulls. He completely tore apart the greatest team in history.

xRAPM: +5.8 (2nd)

97: Misses a lot of games (31). Worst prime year. Averages 26/13

xRAPM: 1st overall
RAPM: 17th

98: Best non-peak year. Was the best player in the NBA when he played. Averaged 28/11, 29 PER. In the playoffs he steps his game up and averages 31/10, 61 FG%, 31 PER (his best career playoff PER). Beats a 61 win Sonics in the playoffs. He was better than Michael Jordan in this season both in the regular season and the postseason.

xRAPM: 2nd
RAPM: 1st

99: Lockout year. Relative down year but he was still productive. On first glance his numbers in the playoffs vs SA look mediocre. 24/13, 49 FG% but he was doing that against the greatest frontline in history. Opposing centers averaged just 41 FG% against them so Shaq's FG% was like +8 against them.

xRAPM: 3rd
RAPM: 2nd


He was still very productive pre prime and was a really good playoff performer. In the playoffs during that span he averaged 27/11/3, 57 FG%, .573 TS%, 28 PER.

[ThaRegul8r]

Garnett's defense

I debated holding off on this post for a thread or two, but I think I better get it in now. Unfortunately (and fortunately) I'm going to be limited in my posting for much of the next week. The good thing is that I'm going to Vegas to check out the Summer League. The bad part is that I won't have much time to post the way I like in here. So, I guess now is the best time for me to post this.

[...]

This is in response to the [...] post by ThaRegul8r that pointed out how Robinson, Olajuwon and Garnett are all compared to Russell and he asks how KG fits into that comparison. He notes that he didn't watch much of KG in Minnesota, cites some opinions that KG's defense wasn't actually as impactful as the others, and asks for a more complete scouting report/review of KG's defense. You've made it a point in all of your posts so far that you want to be told both sides of the story. I try to do that here. I'm brutally honest about areas where I feel like KG isn't as strong on D, but I also cover in a lot of depth where I think that he's uniquely strong. Bottom line, my evaluation is that KG might just be the prototype for maximum defensive impact in the modern post-rule-changes version of the NBA. Without further ado (and be warned, this is LONG. I got my teeth into this one, and tried to go in depth over a career that spans two decades).

Let's start with the Russell comparisons. In some ways those comps make sense because Russell and KG share some traits: excellent lateral movement, length/speed over power, excellent defensive IQ. However, as a straight stylistic comp there are clear differences as well. Russell was a much better shot-blocker than Garnett's ever been. Garnett's defense is even more horizontal than Russell's, at times out beyond the 3-point line. Defense of the on-ball pick was a much bigger part of Garnett's era than Russell's, while 1-on-1 post defense was a bigger part of the earlier era than it is today. So the direct comparison of Russell to Garnett on defense isn't a perfect fit...I'd say, in fact, that Olajuwon or Robinson might share more stylistic similarities to Russell than KG does.

Where I do think the Russell/Garnett comparisons are apt, though, are in the sense that each used their blend of length and athleticism in ways that previously weren't the norm. In Russell's time, the convention was that big men weren't supposed to jump to block shots...then Russell showed that blocking shots was another, even better way to dominate on defense. Ironically, by Garnett's time the convention was that the best way for a big man to play defense was to block shots and protect the paint...then Garnett showed that going horizontal and hindering the offenses percentages in the mid-range could be a different way to achieve defensive dominance. Garnett also shares Russell's appreciation for the mental aspects of defense...knowing everyone's role on defense and where they should be, knowing everyone's role on the OFFENSE and knowing where they want to go, playing mental games with opponents...it is here that Garnett clearly followed in Russell's footsteps. So while Garnett doesn't mirror Russell stylistically, I think that he's the closest that we've seen to the evolutionary version of who Russell was as a defender.

So, let's now look closer at what Garnett brought to the table on defense.

One important point is that Garnett's defensive skills and approach changed over time. There were definite eras of KG defense, if you will. And this could work either to KG's advantage or disadvantage, in this type of evaluation session, because there were different strengths and weaknesses at each time.Let's start with his 1-on-1 defense through the eras.

KG's 1-on-1 defense through the eras:

Early 1-on-1 wing defense:

Spoiler:

Early Garnett was the most explosive and athletic, but also the lankiest. Late 90s thru early 2000s KG played a lot of small forward. He was the full-time cover for several elite wings, usually to good result (though I recall Jordan torching him in his Wizards year...of course, even Wizards Jordan was quick for a SF and by then KG really should have been at full-time PF). He was maybe a step slower in terms of lateral movement than the best of the small forwards, but he was still ridiculously quick for a true 7-footer and he used his mantis arms and angles to excellent results. He could play a bit further off to discourage the drive, while still getting a threatening hand in the face of s ahooter. He could funnell drivers to where he wanted them to go, leading them into traps or difficult shots on the move. The most famous example of KG's defensive efforts on a wing were on Tracy McGrady in the 2003/2004 time period.

Over those two years, if you recall, McGrady was peaking...he led the NBA in scoring both seasons (35.4 ppg on 56.4% TS in 2003, 28 ppg on 52.6% TS in 2004). The Timberwolves played the Magic four times in that two-year window. In 2003 Garnett was the primary defender on McGrady, whereas in 2004 he was more of the main help defender. In all four years the Timberwolves devoted their main team defensive efforts to stopping McGrady (as pretty much all teams did at the time), so I don't want to give the impression that KG was just out there on an island with McGrady. Nevertheless, KG played the lead role in dramatically reducing TMac's output in those games. Of the four games, McGrady had two good games and two terrible games on his way to averages of 21.5 points on 49.6% TS . From the write-up to one of the terrible games:

Kevin Garnett recorded his seventh career triple-double and shut down Tracy McGrady. (snip)

Guarded mostly by Garnett, McGrady struggled with his shooting touch all night. McGrady, who scored 31 and 24 points in Orlando's first two games -- victories over Philadelphia and Miami -- went six for 15 for 18 points, 14 in the second half.

"That's the best I've ever been defended," McGrady said. "Ever.""

http://articles.latimes.com/2002/nov/02/sports/sp-nba2

Prime 1-on-1 big man defense:

Spoiler:

By the time the 90s were coming to an end, KG was in his early 20s and starting to fill out. His listed weight went from the 220 pounds of his rookie year up to about 253 pounds by 2004. The 2003 season was the last year that KG spent a significant amount of time playing small forward, and by the fall of 2003 he was settling in as a full-time 4. In one-on-one circumstances, this version of KG was excellent on every big man south of Shaq. KG could really lock into post-scoring threats like Tim Duncan, versatile talents like Chris Webber, or even more perimeter based bigs like Rasheed Wallace. This versatility would serve him extremely well in this era, as the 2000s have been characterized by much more diversity at the 4 slot...from pure stretch 4s all the way down to more old-school post-up types. KG had the length and quickness to play great post-denial defense, making entry passes very difficult. He had to do his work early to prevent post position because he still wasn't the heaviest player, but even when post-players got position it was still very difficult to finish over those extendo-arms. And on the flip side, Garnett also had the quickness to hound his man all the way out to the 3-point line and beyond. He may have no longer been quick enough to guard small forwards full time, but he was still very possibly the quickest big man in the NBA. Good examples of KG's defense on the two extremes came in the 1999 (Tim Duncan) and 2000 (Rasheed Wallace) playoffs.

1999 Playoffs: Duncan averaged 15.9 pts/36 on 51.6% TS against KG, then 20.5 pts/36 on 58.8% TS against everyone else on way to title

2000 Playoffs: Wallace averaged 11.5 pts/36 on 57.1% TS against KG, then 19.2 pts/36 on 55.1% TS against everyone else

In Sheed's case the scoring efficiency was similar, but his volume was down by almost 40%. In Duncan's case, KG limited both his efficiency (7.2% TS difference) and volume (~23% down).

Late Garnett 1-on-1 defense:

Spoiler:

KG had a major knee injury in 2009, and never had the same explosiveness afterwards. However, he did modify his game and maintain a strong defensive impact. By this time he had "old man strength", enough to be able to defend centers full-time as needed. Despite his lesser athletic ability, though, he still was quicker than most bigs and was able to defend out to the perimeter as needed. Garnett's post defense may have improved a bit because of his strength, but he still had to do much of the work before his man received the ball. He would push them out of the lane on the entry pass, use his arms to deny, pull the chair...essentially using old man tricks to get the job done. There's an outstanding article on his defense, including this technique and a lot more, as well as KG's role in the analytics revolution in the NBA, from ESPN the Magazine in 2012 (link below the quote, but it's Insider):

REALLY, IT WAS JUST A SMALL THING: During the second quarter of a January game against Orlando, Kevin Garnett pushed Dwight Howard out of the paint. A moment later, as the Magic center reached up to catch an entry pass, Garnett shoved him even farther from the hoop. Howard took two dribbles, got stuck and kicked it out to Hedo Turkoglu. When the forward tried to send it back to his big man, KG knocked the ball away, sprinted down the court, took the pass under the hoop and, as three defenders converged on him, kicked it out to Brandon Bass for a wide-open jumper. Swish.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/ ... fresh=true

When dealing with more perimeter oriented bigs, Garnett pulled out the tricks that he used to use against small forwards in his youth...he'd take a step back while using length to prevent the jumper, and then use his footspeed to funnel them towards help or low percentage shots on the move. Interestingly, this period produced some of the more egregious examples of KG "shutting down" his competition.

Here were some examples during the regular season of 2012:

(snip) Below are 10 such match-ups that I looked into which include the top-3 (and five of the top 8) scoring centers (one of them twice) in the NBA and two of the top-3 (and four of the top-7) scoring power forwards. I chose situations in which I remember Garnett as the primary defender for those players (i.e. I didn't include Blake Griffin, because I know for a good chunk of the game KG was on DeAndre Jordan). And in each case I went back through the play-by-play log to see how the player scored when he was on the court with KG, and compared that to how he was scoring in the 5 games preceding the Celtics match-up. Here is what I found:

Code: Select all

                   On court with KG       5 previous games (per 36)
                 Min       Pts     TS%      Pts   TS%
Nowitzki 1/11    30.2      14      55.4      20.1   53.9
Howard 1/23      12.4      3      19.6       21.3   55.6
Howard 1/26      21.4      5      37         21.3   55.6
Hibbert 1/27     16.3      6      30         18.4   57
Bynum 3/11       32.9     18      57.1       20     70.3
Smith 3/19       26.7      6      27.3       22     54.3
Gooden 3/22      19.4      6      33.8       21.2   63
Jefferson 3/28   21.9      8      40.9       22.3   59
Love 3/30        26.6      8       38.8      29.3   62.8
Bosh 4/1         25.7      4       20        19.6   58.3
Total (per 36)             12      37.9%     21.8   59.3%

On the whole, with Garnett as their primary defender their scoring volume is cut in HALF with a more than 20% drop in scoring efficiency compared to what they were doing coming into the game. That's unheard of! The only ones with anywhere near normal production were Andrew Bynum and Nowiztki, and even they were down a bit in either shooting efficiency or volume. But the rest?

Over 2 games, KG held Dwight Howard to eight total points on less than 28% true shooting percentage in almost 34 minutes as his primary defender!

Love had been averaging more than 33 points on 63% TS in the five games leading up to running into the buzz saw and getting shut down!

Poor Big Al, Bosh, and Josh Smith scored 18 points TOTAL on 29% true shooting in more than 74 minutes. That's a combined 8.7 points/36!

http://www.celticsblog.com/2012/4/3/292 ... ompetition


Here is a breakdown of his defensive shut-downs in the playoffs during the 2010 Finals Run:

[spoiler]

In an old post I went through the play-by-plays and figured out exactly what Garnett's defensive match-up scored when he was on the court, as opposed to when he was off.

First round
Beasley against Cs (Garnett on court): 9.3 points/36 min, 32% FG
Beasley against Cs (Garnett off court): 23.4 points/36 min, 62% FG
Beasley reg season: 17.9 pts/36 min, 45% FG

Second round
Jamison against Cs (Garnett on court): 11.2 pts/36, 38% FG
Jamison against Cs (Garnett off court): 26.0 pts/36, 56% FG
Jamison playoffs non-Cs: 19.4 pts/36, 51% FG

ECF
Lewis against Cs (Garnett on court): 5.1 pts/36, 24% FG
Lewis against Cs (Garnett off court): 17.3 pts/36, 48% FG
Lewis playoffs non-Cs: 16.4 pts/36, 54% FG

NBA Finals
(#s through first 5 games only, because breakdown harder after Perkins went down)
Gasol against Cs (Garnett on court): 11.5 pts/36, 52% FG
Gasol against Cs (Garnett off court): 20.0 pts/36, 51% FG
Gasol playoffs non-Cs: 18.6 pts/36, 57% FG

KG's help defense through the eras

Young KG (Up through 2001) played during the time before the illegal defense rule change.

Spoiler:

He was playing a lot of both forward positions, so sometimes his man was on the perimeter and sometimes he was guarding more post-oriented players. But even when he was playing the best-of-the-best, his head was always on the swivel for help opportunities. The Wolves played a pretty vanilla defensive style, but KG gave them a disruptive wild card. This is when he was most athletic, and he used his long arms aggressively in the passing lanes and to block shots. Unlike Duncan, who seemed to get a lot of his blocks in 1-on-1 defense opportunities, Garnett's blocked shots seemed to come most often as weakside or topside rotations. It made for interesting angles on the Wolves defense, having their best shot-blocker often swooping down to the rim from the perimeter. This was when Garnett was setting his career highs in steals and combined steals and blocks.

We have prior-informed RAPM with defensive breakdowns starting from 1998, right in this era. From 1998 - 2000, KG averaged a normalized Defensive RAPM (Doc MJ's method) of right around +5. For perspective, in this scale, the best 5-year defensive RAPM peak for a non-big-man is Shane Battier with a 5-year average of +4.3, while Ben Wallace's 5-year peak (excluding 2001 & 2002 due to lacking data) was +5.5. So young KG in his hybrid forward role of the late 90s measured out as a defender on that scale, with more impact than the peak of the best defensive SF on record but not quite up to the level of the peaks of the Wallace brothers (Sheed was also around +5.5).

2002 gets its own category. Starting for the 2002 season, the NBA changed the rules to allow zone defenses.

Spoiler:

For most teams this wasn't a huge deal. For Minnesota it was, because they had Flip Saunders as coach and KG as their star. Flip gets maligned sometimes for his coaching ability, but I always thought he was a solid coach. If nothing else, he was creative. He coached as though he were still coaching a college or semi-pro team. There were always jokes about how thick his offensive playbook was compared to other coaches. So when the NBA started allowing zone defenses, Flip was ready to take advantage with this never-before-seen concept: Put a mobile, aggressive 7-footer at the top of the zone and let him guard...everybody. I don't know how many of you remember watching the Timberwolves in 2002. First, I should point out that the other starters to begin the year were Terrell Brandon, Wally Szczerbiak, Joe Smith and Rasho Nesterovic. Brandon had quick hands but wasn't very physical or good at staying in front of his man; Wally had been slow-footed for a small forward which made him grossly slow for a SG but he had good size and was rugged; Joe Smith was solid at positioning and drawing charges but not very physical/good on the boards; Rasho was a legit 7-footer but he was more "known" for his offense than his defense or rebounding.

Now, to that zone. The concept was that none of the other defenders were very talented at defending their man, but in this zone defense they didn't have to be. They only had to remain in their quadrant and try to hinder anyone in that area. And KG would be there to help them...no matter where it was on the floor. KG would start at the very top of the zone, extended beyond the top of the 3-point line. When the PG came down on the dribble, KG would accost him. When he passed to the wing, KG followed the ball and trapped. If the pass went to the corner, KG followed it there. To the post, KG followed it there. Essentially, his role was to follow the ball everywhere and help everyone. Then to go get the rebound.

And to start the year, it actually worked! It was something that no other team was doing, so teams didn't know how to prepare for it. Meanwhile, starting Wally at the 2 gave him a size edge on offense, and since he was hidden on defense it made the offense more potent and closer to a real tripole (KG, Brandon and Wally). The Wolves started out the year 30 - 10, among the best records in the league. This earned Wally his first (and only) All Star appearance as the 2nd leading scorer on a contender. But...there was a little problem. Point guard Terrell Brandon got hurt (with an injury that turned out to be career-ending), and back-up Chauncey Billups moved into the starting line-up. At this point in his career Chauncey was proving to be a talented scorer, but he wasn't really a natural point guard yet. He had better size and shooting range than Brandon, if he was more streaky, but he couldn't run the offense the same way. Clearly Wally, Smith and Rasho weren't remotely capable of handling the ball or creating offense on their own. So KG had to take on more offensive responsibility than he ever had. He did, but it seemed to come at the expense of some of his defensive energy. Plus, by now teams had seen the crazy Flip zone and were starting to adjust. After starting the season 30 - 10, the Wolves finished 20 - 22 to finish 50 - 32. Their reward was a first round match-up with the 57-win Mavs.

This series is the elephant in the room when it comes to discussing KG's postseason defense. Because the Mavs absolutely torched the Timberwolves' defense, and Dirk Nowitzki (nominally KG's man, as the PF) had an absolutely other-worldly scoring series. If you didn't watch the series it is easy to believe that Dirk must have torched KG. Instead, between that Wolves zone and the other Wolves' over-reliance on KG's help defense (even in man-to-man situations) KG actually spent very little time defending Dirk that series. The scenes that are seared into my memory from that series involve the Mavs running a Steve Nash, Nick Van Exel, Michael Finley, Dirk Nowitzki and Raef Lafrentz line-up out there. Chauncey Billups flat could not stay in front of Nash. Anthony Peeler (SG who got more run against the Mavs 2 PG look) was even more helpless to stay with Van Exel. Wally Z would get torched in the Iso by Finley. And Raef and Dirk would spread out beyond the arc, forcing Rasho to come out to guard one of them (not his forte). The Mavs would spread out, then let the man with the ball take his man off the dribble (usually not even requiring a pick). KG would have to drop to the foul line in help to cut them off. The ball would swing around until it reached the open man (often Dirk). Swish. Rinse and repeat. In my mind's eye I see KG running around, always a step too far away to prevent the shot, then diving to the lane to grab the board (he averaged about 19 rpg that series).

In the end, I don't know how to evaluate 2002 as far as KG's defense. Obviously the bottom line was that he couldn't do enough with his help D to make it a viable system against that particular Mavs match-up, though a round later the Kings would beat the Mavs easily. The only offensive match-up worse for the Wolves' defense in those days was the Shaq/Kobe Lakers, who could overwhelm their defender before KG could effectively help and destroy them. That crazy zone (thankfully) never got much run again outside of spurts, so I guess Flip learned that it was better as a surprise gimmick than a mainstay. The RAPM numbers for 2002 are partial, and all from the end of the year (when the Wolves were in a tailspin). So...I don't know. Not KG's best hour, though I don't know how much to put on him.

Peak KG (2003, 2004).

Spoiler:

Coming off of 2002, the Wolves went back to their more vanilla defensive schemes with KG playing more PF more regularly. By 2004 he was a full-time PF. In 2003 the Wolves' other starters on defense ranged from average (Rasho) to terrible (Troy Hudson, Anthony Peeler and Wally Z). In 2004 there were actually some reasonable defenders (Hassell and Spree) to go along with a walking 6 fouls center (Erv Johnson, Mark Madsen or Olowokandi) and the below average (defensively)Cassell. Garnett was taking on the largest offensive responsibilities that he would ever carry, so he couldn't concentrate wholly on defense in either year. But with this being the height of his peak, he was still able to dominate on D. His steal numbers weren't quite as high as early KG, but he did hit a career-high in blocks in 2004. Playing more often at PF, his help defense was finally coming from the paint out instead of from the top-down like it often had been before. This also left him closer to the rim, which is when he started really vacuuming in the defensive boards (led the league in rebounds for 4 straight years, starting in 2004). This is when KG was hitting the best balance between offense and defense (e.g. in 2003 he ranked 2nd in the NBA in offensive RAPM and 7th in defensive RAPM; while in 2004 he ranked 1st offensive RAPM and 3rd in defensive RAPM).

Speaking of RAPM, using the normalized PI RAPM calculation, KG averaged a +5.41 defensive RAPM in those two years. For reference, this value would have put him almost exactly on the level of the 5-year peaks of Ben and Rasheed Wallace.

The lost years (2005 - 2007):

Spoiler:

The Wolves had 4 different coaches with 4 different defensive systems betweeen 2005 and 2007. They also had several big trades and lots of roster turnover, including big changes around midway through all 3 seasons (coach changes in 2005 and 2007; big trade in 2006). It is thus very difficult to coherently evaluate KG's help defense in those years. On the whole I'd say that his help defense remained roughly constant, but the end results were variable. He averaged 2.8 steals/blocks per year over those 3 years, down a bit from his norm (actually his career-lows as a full time starter at that time). He probably wasn't quite as athletic as he'd been at peak and before, but he was also grabbing more rebounds than ever before (leading the league in rebounds with defensive rebound percentages over 30%). His defensive RAPM marks in 2005 and 2006 were the lowest of his career (average +2.3 normalized D RAPM), which is interesting because the 2006 team defense was actually reasonable (#10 in the league). The 2007 defense finished #21 in the league (worst of any KG team), but that's a bit misleading because the defense imploded any time KG left the court. With KG on the court, their team defensive rating was (from memory) about #14 in the league. But when KG wasn't on the court (including the 6 games he missed), the defense was cartoon-level bad (from memory something like a 125 or 130 team defensive rating in those games). Thus, despite how awful the team defense was, 2007 marked the first time that KG finished with the highest defensive RAPM in the league (+5.56, slightly below his then career-best +5.69 from 2004).

The late-prime Celtics years (2008 + 2009).

Spoiler:

As we all know, KG went to the Celtics in 2008 and, at the end of his fading prime, showed what kind of defensive impact he could have in a good defensive system when he didn't have to be a 1-man mission on offense. The Thibideau system fit him like a glove. He blew up the pick-and-roll like no one ever had, cementing his reputaiton as the best PnR defender in the NBA. Even with his mobility shy of what it had once been, he provided excellent help defense anywhere within the 3-point line. He had a (then) career-low 1.3 blocks per game, but I remember someone doing a film study and concluding that KG wasn't getting many blocked shot attempts because he was rotating so quickly that he was beating the offensive player to the spot and preventing the shot before it could be taken. Thus, he was lowering field goal percentages and causing play resets into scrambles that also led to lower percentage looks for the opponents. There's no place in the box score that accounts for that type of help defense, but it showed up in the team Defense (which had one of the historic years in NBA history) and it also showed up in KG's defensive RAPM scores (his +6.9 and +7.44 marks in 2008 and 2009 (pre-injury) were higher than the career-best marks of Duncan, David Robinson (post 1997), or any of the Wallace brothers. Only Mutombo and Mourning (and, randomly, Jason Collins) have seasons on record with higher defensive RAPM scores than that, and Mouning's and Mutombo's were from the era before the offensive and defensie rule changes when being a rim protector might have been more valuable than it is now.

From 2010 - 2013, after the knee injury, KG had lost his fastball.

Spoiler:

He was still mobile for a big man, but he was no longer a freak. He went through stretches, especially in 2010, when he wasn't quick enough to rotate onto smaller players the way he used to or even stay with his own man. Some of those 2010 games were downright sad to see. But like an ace pitcher after Tommy John surgery, he learned to adapt to his new situation. He studied the defensive sets and his opponent's offensive sets so much that he knew where everyone was supposed to be on either team at all times, and he communicated it (loudly) to his teammates. Just ask former Nets coach Avery Johnson:

Nets coach Avery Johnson was whimsically whinin' with an Avery Johnson-sized smile about KG's tendency for knowing everything about basketball that there is to know. Loudly.

From Thursday night's pregame scrum, via Mike Mazzeo at ESPN New York:

"The funny thing is, I wish he would be quiet on the floor and not call out your plays," the Nets coach said in a bemused and complimentary tone Thursday morning prior to his team's nationally-televised contest against KG's Celtics. "He's seen so much. We'll call a play and he'll say, 'Joe [Johnson] is going over here and Deron [Williams] is going here.' It's not funny anymore, OK?

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball- ... --nba.html

Another thing that I noticed KG relying on more was using mind games to throw people off balance. He'd always done that as one of the biggest trash talkers in the NBA for the last two decades, but maybe I just noticed it more when he got older. Or maybe he did it more. Sometimes trash talk/physical play/mind games backfires (the way that BIll Simmons believes that it did against LeBron in the 2012 playoffs). But often it works, especially late in games against hot players.

Here's an example of it working on Al Jefferson at the end of a game where Jefferson had been smoking, but KG made him lose his head on a crucial possession late.

Kevin Garnett wormed his way into Al Jefferson’s head at a time when the Celtics needed an edge and the Jazz couldn’t afford to crack.

It started with a simple trick. With the Jazz trailing, 98-94, in last night’s game, Jefferson had Garnett posted, ready to go to work, and Garnett pulled the chair out from under Jefferson.

Then, the talking started.

Referee Joey Crawford issued warnings, double technicals, and more warnings. Garnett was face-to-face with Jefferson the entire time. Celtics coach Doc Rivers has a rule against fourth quarter technicals, but Garnett shouted at Rivers, saying, “I didn’t say anything.’’

He was still mouth-to-ear with Jefferson at that point, and Jefferson was the picture of frustration.

Play resumed, and Jefferson got the ball back in the post, and when a double-team from Garnett and Rajon Rondo came, he immediately traveled.

Up until that point, the Jazz had forced the Celtics into a breakneck back-and-forth that they wanted no part of after already drag racing with Golden State and going 0-to-60 with the Nuggets.

Garnett’s mind games were like an emergency brake in what ended up a 107-102 Celtics win over Utah.

“Even though Kevin got a technical, the next play he got a travel,’’ said Paul Pierce, who hit a 3-pointer that made it 101-96. “That was big. That’s what Kevin does. Defensively, he gets in guys’ heads. Al had it going, and that was a crucial possession.’’

http://www.boston.com/sports/basketball ... p_up_jazz/

On the whole, KG's overall defense has remained elite even into his later years. According to the same defensive RAPM study, KG's average defensive score for 2010 - 2012 (+5.9) would have put his impact right between the 5-year peaks (from 1998 on) of the big Spurs (Duncan (+6.2) and David Robinson (+6.2)) and the Wallace brothers (+5.5 and +5.5 for Ben and Sheed).

Bottom line: KG's defense has changed a lot through the years, as his roles have changed. At every iteration he was a hugely impactful defender, and at his best he was the most impactful defender of the post rule-changes era in the NBA. His absurd combination of PnR defense, middle linebacker abilities, defensive IQ, length/athletic ability ratio, mind games and aggressiveness make him a unique beast. He isn't perfect. in his prime he could have (and did) guard pretty much anyone between Jordan and Shaq, but you wouldn't have actually wanted to put him on Jordan or Shaq (though in his career he actually was the primary defender for both Jordan and Shaq at different times). His mind games often work, but sometimes they backfire. When Flip Saunders asked him to play the closest that I've ever seen to a 1-man team defense, he eventually came up short against a team with too many offensive weapons. And while he measured out as one of the best defensive players of his era while in his offensive peak, his defensive peak came later in a situation that was more conducive to defensive impact. So there were limits. But those limits were very few, very far between, and surrounded one of the most brilliant defensive careers that the NBA has seen. Was KG the evolutionary Bill Russell? Not for me to say. But I will say that he's the best defensive player that I've ever watched live action, and he certainly has an argument that he could walk in Russell's shoes. Which is about as big of a compliment as any defensive player can receive.

(I tried to spoiler the post, but apparently there's a limit as to how many spoilers can be within a spoilered post.)

Outstanding! This is the kind of post I'd like to see more of in this project.

First off, just wow drza! What I would give to see breakdowns of everyone else in such detail.

[penbeast0]

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I have the votes as follows:

Shaq 13 -- penbeast0, RSCD3, colts18, Heartbreak Kid, ronnymac2, batmana, Narigo, MacGill, therealbig3, DQuinn1595, Ray Ban-Sematra, Mutnt, rich316

Magic 7 -- TrueLAFan, andrewww, basketballefan, GC Pantalones, JordansBulls, Clyde Frazier, ardee

LeBron 4 -- baller2014, trex8063, SactoKingsFan, magicmer1

Hakeem 3 -- Gregoire, fpliii, 90sAllDecade

Bird -- Warspite

RUNOFF -- SHAQ v. MAGIC

[acrossthecourt]

Yeah I've been looking more into KG and the whole "bad supporting cast" argument and outside of the years he completely missed the playoffs (not counting 05 where he should've made the playoffs with that team), and 03 he should've won a lot more. I'm actually lower on KG's prime than ever before. I mean those teams around him weren't that bad in 02 (they were actually good this year and they had the best G rotation in the league next to the Mavs), 04, or 05 and they underachieved. I mean the front office was horribly incompetent but I'm not really buying into the TB/Chauncey/Wally/Cassell/Spree wasn't enough argument. Especially not when you consider their performances in those seasons.

The problem is that those guys didn't play for him very long or concurrently, and their cast behind them was horrid.

Cassell played for them for only two seasons. One of those he was at 1500 minutes. When healthy, they won 58 games.

And in 05 even when Cassell played the team still wasn't winning enough to make the playoffs.

Sprewell played of them for only two seasons as well. They were his last two seasons before retirement. He was sub-50 TS% and sub 15 PER, below average. He was an athletic forward in his mid-30's and offered little.

Sprewell was always a guy that put up mediocre to bad numbers (at best). Hell you almost described his career post 99 in that post. How about his 18 per, 20/4/4 performance in the 04 playoffs? He was a bit washed but still a good starter in 04. In 05 he was washed up but about average. I'd take Spree in those years over a few of Duncan's guards (and his 04 year is better than any guard play Duncan got in the early 00s).

Wally Szczerbiak was one of the worst all-star selections ever and was a limited player. His shooting was useful, but he was closer to a specialist than a star.

Wally was a good role player. Again he was clearly above average in any way and he's about as good as Nic Batum I'd say.

Billups, like those two, played only two seasons as well. This was before he broke out in Detroit. He was not an all-star player in Minnesota.

First off Wally played in Minny for awhile. Secondly this is false. Chauncey played his way into a good contract and a starting role in 02. He went from 16/4/7 per 36 in 02 to 19/4/4 in 03. Both years he was super efficient and he had a 18 PER that last year in Minnesota. He also put up 22/5/6 in the playoffs and he didn't take another leap in his game until after the rule changes. Seems more like he needed a shot (blame that on the coach) but he was still great when he played (and he played 29 minutes a night).

Brandon was great for them, but he only played 2.5 seasons for them. Mid-season trade and his last season was wrecked by injuries. He was a pretty good player but nothing spectacular.

Brandon was very good. He had a 21 PER with Minnesota and they might've only got 200 games out of him but that's 200 games with a high level PG and that mid season trade was half the season (he played 21 out of Minnesota's 50 games). He also averaged a 21 PER in the 3 series he played next to KG.

Yeah, what a great cast. And what was worse was the bench behind them. The fact that you listed Sprewell makes me wonder if you even looked at his supporting cast at all besides just reading the names.

No one said it was a great cast just that he should've done more because those teams weren't "that" bad. The starting lineups were often above average (along with a weak bench outside of 01 iirc).

Hm? In 2005 they were at 44 wins; Memphis was at 45 and made the playoffs. He played ten minutes less than the previous season. You're saying a healthy Cassell playing more minutes won't give them another win or two? If you're saying that, then you're saying he's not a valuable player, which refutes your own point.

If you want to try to win with old Sprewell trying to feed his family, go ahead. But there's no evidence he's a great player. He can score a lot because he can take a lot of shots. That's it. If we're all about PPG, then let's make sure Carmelo is top 20 or 30.

Okay so Wally is as good as Batum (completely different player with a more varied skillset, but ok.) So what? Batum isn't very good. He's not a game-changer.

I don't know why I'm supposed to be impressed by an 18 PER and 29 minutes a night.

When KG has a legitimate all-star caliber player, he wins 58 in 2004. Brandon was close to that, although he only made the all-star team years when he was younger and Garnett was 20 and 21, respectively, when they played together.


I have no idea why people think these casts are so great.

Since his critics use PER a lot, I'll use that to show how many wins his teammates were worth in 2003, which is a year brought up fairly often regarding when he "underachieved."

Here's the method: estimate the PER strength of his teammates by using their adjacent season PER. Only use a PER from a different team. I'm doing this to eliminate any interaction between Garnett and the player. Using an adjacent season gives a good rough guess at the PER because it's only a one season change. The only player who stayed with Minnesota long enough that I had to use a season far removed was Szczerbiak. However, he was much younger in 2003, and I used his rating when he was closer to a prime age. If I used an aging curve, it would have helped Garnett's case even more.

Here are the PER's I used:
Troy Hudson 15.3
Rasho Nesterovic 15.3
Anthony Peeler 11.8
Kendall Gill 11.1
Wally Szczerbiak 17.2
Gary Trent 13.8
Joe Smith 16.6
Marc Jackson 13.2
Rod Strickland 14.9
Loren Woods 9.9
Mike Wilks 9.1
Igor Rakocevic 8.4
Reggie Slater 19.2

Then I use Hollinger's formula for wins.

Spoiler:

VA: Value Added - the estimated number of points a player adds to a team’s season total above what a 'replacement player' (for instance, the 12th man on the roster) would produce. Value Added = ([Minutes * (PER - PRL)] / 67). PRL (Position Replacement Level) = 11.5 for power forwards, 11.0 for point guards, 10.6 for centers, 10.5 for shooting guards and small forwards
EWA: Estimated Wins Added - Value Added divided by 30, giving the estimated number of wins a player adds to a team’s season total above what a 'replacement player' would produce.

(For replacement level since this is a slightly different era, I just use the average of all those positions: 10.82. The differences are really minor.)

The sum of their estimated wins? 26.3.

Which implies Garnett was worth 24.7 wins....

But yeah, the supporting cast wasn't the problem.

[RayBan-Sematra]

How did you calculate these? Because based on BBR, if you average their PER for their top 5 years I get

Lebron's best 5 year stretch going by PER in the playoffs was from 09-13.
His playoff PER over those 5 years is 29.1
-Lebron's playoff PER over his entire 9 year playoff career is 27.7

Shaq's best 5 year stretch going by PER in the playoffs was from 97-01.
His playoff PER average over those 5 years is 29.9
-Shaq's playoff PER over his best 9 year stretch is 28.9

You can confirm this all by going to BBR.

So when looking at their best 5 year stretch or even Shaq's best 9 years VS LBJ's entire playoff career (which is 9 years) he clearly comes out well ahead in average production.

Then we can see that beyond that Shaq was far more consistent.

Number of years with a playoff PER above 26
Shaq : 9
Lebron : 5

I think that the 'disappointment' narrative for LeBron is entirely overblown. Quite frankly, I don't care about it unless it relates to actual winning.

Performance in elimination series is VERY important when it comes to winning.
If a player is consistently playing poorly in the playoffs in elimination (usually when facing a tough opponent or a tough defense) then that is certainly a big deal and will be held against them.

So for me, that means the 2011 finals, and that's basically all.

He also underperformed in 07 VS the Cav's, 08/10 VS Boston and 11/13 VS the Mavs and the Spurs.

So Shaq was a more productive and consistent playoff performer over his first 11 years or his first 9 playoff appearences and he performed far better in elimination & Finals series.
Add to that that Shaq has 2 more dominant years + 2 quality years in longevity and I don't see any case for Lebron.

[magicmerl]

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I have the votes as follows:

Shaq 13 -- penbeast0, RSCD3, colts18, Heartbreak Kid, ronnymac2, batmana, Narigo, MacGill, therealbig3, DQuinn1595, Ray Ban-Sematra, Mutnt, rich316

Magic 7 -- TrueLAFan, andrewww, basketballefan, GC Pantalones, JordansBulls, Clyde Frazier, ardee

LeBron 4 -- baller2014, trex8063, SactoKingsFan, magicmer1

Hakeem 3 -- Gregoire, fpliii, 90sAllDecade

Bird -- Warspite

RUNOFF -- SHAQ v. MAGIC

Ok, in the runoff, I change my vote back to Shaq

[Exodus]

Shaq can't even hold Magic jock strap.


This is Magic easily.

Count me in as Magic being better than Shaq

Again, this is a discussion thread. A post like this doesn't add anything

[Baller2014]

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I have the votes as follows:

Shaq 13 -- penbeast0, RSCD3, colts18, Heartbreak Kid, ronnymac2, batmana, Narigo, MacGill, therealbig3, DQuinn1595, Ray Ban-Sematra, Mutnt, rich316

Magic 7 -- TrueLAFan, andrewww, basketballefan, GC Pantalones, JordansBulls, Clyde Frazier, ardee

LeBron 4 -- baller2014, trex8063, SactoKingsFan, magicmer1

Hakeem 3 -- Gregoire, fpliii, 90sAllDecade

Bird -- Warspite

RUNOFF -- SHAQ v. MAGIC

I voted for Magic.

[RayBan-Sematra]

Shaq can't even hold Magic jock strap.


This is Magic easily.

Count me in as Magic being better than Shaq

Try to be objective and keep personal bias out of your votes.
Or atleast make it less obvious.

Anyway... that is all I will say about that.

Further reminder to all that votes must be accompanied by an explanation/analysis.
I believe simple "I vote for x player" type votes won't be counted.

[Owly]

How did you calculate these? Because based on BBR, if you average their PER for their top 5 years I get

Lebron's best 5 year stretch going by PER in the playoffs was from 09-13.
His playoff PER over those 5 years is 29.1
-Lebron's playoff PER over his entire 9 year playoff career is 27.7

Shaq's best 5 year stretch going by PER in the playoffs was from 97-01.
His playoff PER average over those 5 years is 29.9
-Shaq's playoff PER over his best 9 year stretch is 28.9

You can confirm this all by going to BBR.

I'm guessing MagicMerl (and perhaps other LeBron advocates (and others) might question you on the virtue of having your best playoff years consecutively. Is there a special signficance to this that makes your career better. If not wouldn't the best 5 years to use when citing a players best five years be that players best five years no matter where they came in their career? Particularly as the term "stretch" is only just being introduced to the conversation.

Performance in elimination series is VERY important when it comes to winning.
If a player is consistently playing poorly in the playoffs in elimination (usually when facing a tough opponent or a tough defense) then that is certainly a big deal and will be held against them.

So for me, that means the 2011 finals, and that's basically all.

He also underperformed in 07 VS the Cav's, 08/10 VS Boston and 11/13 VS the Mavs and the Spurs.

The question here would be, what are "elimination series"? Because by the expected definition (series in which you are eliminated) how you played is irrelevent to winning (because, by definiton in those series, you were in fact eliminated, thus you could have performed excelently but for it to be counted you must have lost, and had you played even better and turned the series, it wouldn't be counted in this sample because it wouldn't be an elimination series. Then too aren't you punishing a player for carrying a team through a team it shouldn't have gotten by, e.g. Pistons '07, if the next series is slightly below par. Would it have been better to have lost earlier?)

[magicmerl]

How did you calculate these? Because based on BBR, if you average their PER for their top 5 years I get

Lebron's best 5 year stretch going by PER in the playoffs was from 09-13.
His playoff PER over those 5 years is 29.1
-Lebron's playoff PER over his entire 9 year playoff career is 27.7

Shaq's best 5 year stretch going by PER in the playoffs was from 97-01.
His playoff PER average over those 5 years is 29.9
-Shaq's playoff PER over his best 9 year stretch is 28.9

You can confirm this all by going to BBR.

Ok, I see you are using contiguous 5 year blocks, not their best 5 years. Your numbers still appear to me to be wrong. Shaq's 5yrPER is 29.6. LeBron's is ..... 29.6. Why is this evidence that Shaq is better?

In addition, an arguement that I have seen cited multiple times is how transcendant Shaq was in 2000. Certainly he had a dominating performance, leading the playoffs in both offensive and defensive win shares, on .556TS%, with 30.5PER. The thing is, LeBron's 2012 campaign is arguably even better. He has a similar number of games/minutes/PER as Shaq, but his win shares just blow Shaq out of the water, and he has the edge in .576TS%, as well as ORtg and DRtg.

I think that the 'disappointment' narrative for LeBron is entirely overblown. Quite frankly, I don't care about it unless it relates to actual winning.

Performance in elimination series is VERY important when it comes to winning.

I think it's better just to win, than it is to perform well while losing.

[SactoKingsFan]

My run-off vote goes to Shaq since I have him over everyone other than LeBron in the 6-10 tier.

Sent from my G2 via Tapatalk

[RayBan-Sematra]

I'm guessing MagicMerl (and perhaps other LeBron advocates (and others) might question you on the virtue of having your best playoff years consecutively. Is there a special signficance to this that makes your career better. If not wouldn't the best 5 years to use when citing a players best five years be that players best five years no matter where they came in their career? Particularly as the term "stretch" is only just being introduced to the conversation.

I don't know it just seemed logical to me.
When people look at a players Peak years they are usually in some consecutive time period.

00-02 for Shaq or 98-03
93-95 for Hakeem
06-09 for Kobe etc...

Plus none of that really lessens my argument since I also compared Lebron's entire 9 year playoff career to Shaq's best 9 year stretch and in that comparison Shaq still has a huge edge in productivity & consistency.

The question here would be, what are "elimination series"?

An elimination series is the last playoff series of the year a player takes part in.
If a team keeps losing in the playoffs with the star player performing poorly in elimination then that is something to worry about and something that should be held against him.

Ok, I see you are using contiguous 5 year blocks, not their best 5 years. Your numbers still appear to me to be wrong. Shaq's 5yrPER is 29.6. LeBron's is ..... 29.6. Why is this evidence that Shaq is better?

Are you using regular-season numbers?
Otherwise I don't see how you are getting different results.

I made sure to test out every possible 5 year block to make sure I selected the best one for each player.

In addition, an arguement that I have seen cited multiple times is how transcendant Shaq was in 2000.
The thing is, LeBron's 2012 campaign is arguably even better.

I don't think so.
Lebron went through a weaker conference, had better support from his cast and didn't have near the kind of defensive impact that Shaq had which won't show up in PER.
Plus Lebron was playing in a league that changed its rules to benefit his style of play while Shaq had no such luxury.
One can argue that the Barkley rule which was put in place around 99 actually made life harder on him.

I think it's better just to win, than it is to perform well while losing.

I think it is important to play well in victory or defeat.
Maybe if you played better in defeat then the defeat would have been a victory.

How a player performs in elimination especially if said series are usually coming against tougher competition is very important.
If they can't remain individually effective when the going gets tough well... that is gonna hold them back against other legends who did.

I mean if I have to coach a Finals series against the 2013 Spurs and I have my pick of 00 Shaq or 13 Lebron who do you think I am gonna pick?