RealGM Top 100 List #6

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#281 » by magicmerl » Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:21 am

DannyNoonan1221 wrote:I've been trying to catch up. But I have to vote LeBron here.

<snip>

Shaq has moved up on my list (from 9th to 7th). But just as I did before this project, I still have LeBron one spot ahead of him

We're in the runoff between Shaq and Magic. So I assume you are really voting for Shaq here?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#282 » by DannyNoonan1221 » Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:32 am

magicmerl wrote:
DannyNoonan1221 wrote:I've been trying to catch up. But I have to vote LeBron here.

<snip>

Shaq has moved up on my list (from 9th to 7th). But just as I did before this project, I still have LeBron one spot ahead of him

We're in the runoff between Shaq and Magic. So I assume you are really voting for Shaq here?


Yes if my runoff vote counts I would vote for Shaq. I haven't been actively participating in the #6 thread as I have had a weekend that has kept me from technology.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#283 » by DHodgkins » Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:33 am

My vote is still for Magic Johnson
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 

Post#284 » by magicmerl » Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:34 am

trex_8063 wrote:
magicmerl wrote:Sorry, how do you get BBR to show you combined PER for 5 years?


If you're doing 5 CONSECUTIVE years, it's easy: within the Advanced Stats bracket simply click on the bar of the first of the 5-year period in question (you'll see it get highlighted in a sort of off-blue color), then click on the year that end your 5-year period. BBR will create a new window with the desired advanced stats.

If the years are NON-consecutive, well then you have to do some of the math yourself. Not suggesting taking all the raw numbers and running the PER equation yourself (you COULD do that, but it's A LOT of work).

Easier method comes from understanding PER is a per minute stat: so multiple a season's PER by the # of minutes played that year. Do that for all the seasons you want to average out. Add up all your products and divide by the sum total of minutes played in all years in question. Viola!

Thanks.

So if you are calculating it weighted by minutes, and actually take the 5 best years of a player's career (as opposed to the 5 best consecutive years), then LeBron has a PER of 30.79 vs Shaq's 30.22. Much of a muchness, but certainly not an arguement for Shaq over LeBron.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#285 » by ceiling raiser » Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:44 am

If this is indeed a runoff, my vote is for Shaquille O'Neal. Perhaps it's partially because I've seen so much more of Shaq than I have of Magic, but I can't envision him being levels better offensively than O'Neal, which is what it would take to get past Shaq's longevity (ElGee's championship odds method really forces you to consider this, particularly his research regarding how missing regular season games is nowhere near as big of a deal as it seems to be, based on the data) and defensive (even given his inconsistencies on that end) advantages.

I'm looking forward to the next thread. There should be plenty of discussion with regards to Bird, KG, Hakeem, and the player who does not win the runoff. Owly brought up Oscar in this thread, he and LeBron should get some more play as well.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#286 » by magicmerl » Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:47 am

fpliii wrote:I'm looking forward to the next thread. There should be plenty of discussion with regards to Bird, KG, Hakeem, and the player who does not win the runoff. Owly brought up Oscar in this thread, he and LeBron should get some more play as well.

Indeed. I've very intrested in seeing how the Magic vs LeBron matchup plays out. There was a big thread about that recently, wasn't there?

Found it. Looks like not such a mega thread after all.

What's interesting is that both players took about 5 years to ease their way into being dominant, and we've seen both players be transcendant for about 6 years.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#287 » by penbeast0 » Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:56 am

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I have the votes as follows:

Shaq 20-- penbeast0, RSCD3, colts18, Heartbreak Kid, ronnymac2, batmana, Narigo, MacGill, therealbig3, DQuinn1595, Ray Ban-Sematra, Mutnt, rich316, magicmer1, SactoKingsFan, trex8013, Notanoob, DannyNoonan1221, fpliii. DoctorMJ

Magic 10-- TrueLAFan, andrewww, basketballefan, GC Pantalones, JordansBulls, Clyde Frazier, ardee, baller2014, DHodgkins, Gregoire



RUNOFF -- SHAQ v. MAGIC
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#288 » by andrewww » Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:57 am

Updated voting between Shaq vs. Magic:

Shaq (19)
Colts18
RSCD3_
HeartBreakKid
Therealbig3
Penbeast0
MacGill
Narigo
Batmana
Ronnymac2
DQuinn1575
Rayban-Sematra
Rich316
Mutnt
Notanoob (late vote)
DannyNoonan1221 (late vote)
*Magicmerl
*SactoKingsFan
*Trex_8063
*Fpliii

Magic (9)
Andrewww
Basketballefan
Baller2014
TrueLAfan
JordansBulls
GC Pantalones
Clyde Frazier
Ardee
Dhodgkins (late vote)
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 

Post#289 » by trex_8063 » Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:28 am

magicmerl wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:
magicmerl wrote:Sorry, how do you get BBR to show you combined PER for 5 years?


If you're doing 5 CONSECUTIVE years, it's easy: within the Advanced Stats bracket simply click on the bar of the first of the 5-year period in question (you'll see it get highlighted in a sort of off-blue color), then click on the year that end your 5-year period. BBR will create a new window with the desired advanced stats.

If the years are NON-consecutive, well then you have to do some of the math yourself. Not suggesting taking all the raw numbers and running the PER equation yourself (you COULD do that, but it's A LOT of work).

Easier method comes from understanding PER is a per minute stat: so multiple a season's PER by the # of minutes played that year. Do that for all the seasons you want to average out. Add up all your products and divide by the sum total of minutes played in all years in question. Viola!

Thanks.

So if you are calculating it weighted by minutes, and actually take the 5 best years of a player's career (as opposed to the 5 best consecutive years), then LeBron has a PER of 30.79 vs Shaq's 30.22. Much of a muchness, but certainly not an arguement for Shaq over LeBron.


I calculate Shaq's 5 best PER seasons to average out to 30.12 (I'm assuming a typo, since there are no 5 seasons that average to higher than that).
And maybe you used a different 5-season combo for Lebron, because I calculate his 5 best PER years ('09, '10, '12-'14) to average out to 30.90.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 

Post#290 » by magicmerl » Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:31 am

trex_8063 wrote:I calculate Shaq's 5 best PER seasons to average out to 30.12 (I'm assuming a typo, since there are no 5 seasons that average to higher than that).
And maybe you used a different 5-season combo for Lebron, because I calculate his 5 best PER years ('09, '10, '12-'14) to average out to 30.90.

Yeah, those were the LeBron seasons. For Shaq I had 97-00, 03. And it was playoff PER only, weighted by minutes played.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 

Post#291 » by trex_8063 » Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:32 am

magicmerl wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:I calculate Shaq's 5 best PER seasons to average out to 30.12 (I'm assuming a typo, since there are no 5 seasons that average to higher than that).
And maybe you used a different 5-season combo for Lebron, because I calculate his 5 best PER years ('09, '10, '12-'14) to average out to 30.90.

Yeah, those were the LeBron seasons. For Shaq I had 97-00, 03. And it was playoff PER only, weighted by minutes played.


Ahh, that explains it. Disregard my corrections (rs based).
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 

Post#292 » by magicmerl » Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:35 am

trex_8063 wrote:Ahh, that explains it. Disregard my corrections (rs based).

Ya, the person I was debating with only wanted to look at PS results.

I just managed to produce your numbers from RS results (although Shaq's best 5 seasons change to be 99-03).
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 

Post#293 » by shutupandjam » Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:41 am

Are we really arguing over who has a higher peak/prime PER (a fairly useless stat) when the two guys are within one point of each other?

Edit: didn't mean to come off as condescending, but I don't like to see an argument that should carry with it a good deal of nuance devolve into Player X's 5 year PER is 30.1 and Player Y's is 30.0. I can see now that it's also about figuring out how to calculate a 5 year average etc, but I still think this is not particularly helpful to the overall discussion.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 

Post#294 » by Jim Naismith » Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:59 am

Clyde Frazier wrote:
It's become clear over the last few years that garnett is one of the most polarizing players. People are so split on the guy (to extremes in my opinion) that there's not much of a common ground.


I scanned the GOAT lists here (viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1329010) and the RealGM voting threads and found these highest and lowest rankings for these players.

Player....High, Low
Jordan.....1, 2
Kareem....1, 4
LeBron.....5, 9
Shaq.......3, 10
Hakeem...2, 11
Duncan....4, 11
Bird........5, 11
Russell.....1, 12
Wilt........2, 13
Magic......3, 13
Oscar......3, 16
Kobe.......9, 17
KG..........5, 21


Unanimous top 15 players
Jordan, Kareem, LeBron, Shaq, Hakeem, Duncan, Bird, Russell, Wilt, Magic

Unanimous top 10 players
Jordan, Kareem, LeBron, Shaq

Least variance in ranking
Jordan, Kareem, LeBron

Most variance in ranking
KG, Oscar, Wilt, Russell
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#295 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:10 am

Runoff vote: Shaq

People are asking why Magic has dropped from the past and I think it's actually really simple:

Now that LeBron has basically matched the longevity of Magic people are looking at Magic's longevity in a harsher light. maybe ElGee's work has something to do with it too (it does for me) but for most I think it's about LeBron being contrasted with the Duncan's of the world.

Some have brought up that Magic was actually forced not to play due to unfounded medical concerns, and therefore they propose that the longevity shouldn't be held against him. While I don't see it that way I really don't mind if others do... Only thing is if I were making a list that way Magic might be my #1 overall. I see know reason why his career arch wouldn't have been extremely graceful in Normal circumsatances - considerably more so than Jordan's for example. So if there is anyone crediting Magic with hypothetical longevity my only question would be: why not even sooner?

As is though I side in the run off with Shaq for the 3rd time. He's an avalanche of a player and he was reliably so for a long time. And also those regular season health issues didn't seem to affect the playoffs as much which
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#296 » by Gregoire » Mon Jul 14, 2014 6:41 am

Runoff vote: Magic. I consider Magic better offensive player with better portability and intangibles. Longevity goes to Shaq, but prime vs prime Magic was more consistent and had more impact due to his incredible offense.Shaqs peak was better, but 5year, 7year prime goes to Magic.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#297 » by E-Balla » Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:08 am

Doctor MJ wrote:Runoff vote: Shaq

People are asking why Magic has dropped from the past and I think it's actually really simple:

Now that LeBron has basically matched the longevity of Magic people are looking at Magic's longevity in a harsher light. maybe ElGee's work has something to do with it too (it does for me) but for most I think it's about LeBron being contrasted with the Duncan's of the world.

Some have brought up that Magic was actually forced not to play due to unfounded medical concerns, and therefore they propose that the longevity shouldn't be held against him. While I don't see it that way I really don't mind if others do... Only thing is if I were making a list that way Magic might be my #1 overall. I see know reason why his career arch wouldn't have been extremely graceful in Normal circumsatances - considerably more so than Jordan's for example. So if there is anyone crediting Magic with hypothetical longevity my only question would be: why not even sooner?

As is though I side in the run off with Shaq for the 3rd time. He's an avalanche of a player and he was reliably so for a long time. And also those regular season health issues didn't seem to affect the playoffs as much which
Remains as always the acid test.


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I 100% believe that without his early retirement Magic would be the GOAT easily. 5 years removed from playing he came back for about 30 games (as a portly PF no less) and was probably the best player on a 50+ win Laker squad late that season.

I do think people are underrating his early seasons though. If Magic was a 22-24 point scorer more often I think most would rank him higher. Looking at his career there's clearly differences between his roles statistically (major differences too). I mean he was averaging 18 ppg on 63 TS the three years prior to 87 where he averaged 24 on 60 TS. If he was playing the scoring role in 85 and 86 (I feel he could've scored a lot efficiently in 84 too but that year clearly isn't his peak level since he didn't have a great jumper yet) would anyone rank him higher? If so I could easily try to convince you guys he could've easily played at that level those 2 years and probably won 3 straight MVPs (yes even over Bird in his best season). He did put up 22/8/16 against Houston (60 TS, 127 ORTG) while Bird put up an impressive but slightly worse 24/10/10 (58 TS, 124 ORTG) especially after seeing their support (outside of Coop no one had an above 100 ORTG and Bird had McHale putting up 26 on 63 TS).
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#298 » by Texas Chuck » Mon Jul 14, 2014 12:39 pm

Run-off Vote: Shaq

Im taking him over Magic based primarily on longevity. I too understand the reasons not to hold that against Magic, but the bottom line for me is I can only give him credit for the seasons he actually played.

Beyond longevity I think Shaq disrupted defenses more than any player ever forcing the contending teams in his conference to make every move with their roster with Shaq in mind. We saw teams like the Spurs stocking up on bigs, we saw the Kings add Brad Miller to give them another guy Shaq had to concern himself with defensively, the Mavs tried playing Rafe with Dirk in an effort to pull Shaq out of the paint and when that flopped Nellie invented hack-a-Shaq and guarding him with guys like Erick Strickland and Bubba Wells rather than even bothering with a center. A tactic that is still used today to deal with guys who can't hit FT's

He was an offensive force, a defensive factor, had a tremendous peak, a longer than typically credited prime.

I love Magic, but I think Shaq deserves to be higher.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#299 » by Quotatious » Mon Jul 14, 2014 1:05 pm

I've been waiting for the run-off to cast my vote as voting for Hakeem wouldn't make sense, with still just 3 posters voting for him.

I'm voting for Shaq - their longevity (as a stars, that is, so 1993-06 Shaq and 1980-91 Magic, Shaq played more minutes, but obviously he also had that pretty decent season in Phoenix in 2009), is close, but to me Shaq is just a more dominant player, and a better defender, even taking his mostly below average pick & roll D into account. Excellent post defender and good rim protector, though, and a good overall defender. Not elite, but good, which is still clearly better than Magic. Frankly, their offense is pretty comparable, too. Magic is a little ahead, but both are top 5-ish. No disrespect to Johnson, but this is an easy choice for me.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#300 » by colts18 » Mon Jul 14, 2014 1:22 pm

Shaq had very underrated longevity.

This is his xRAPM values for his past prime period (2007-2011):
2007: +4.7
2008: +4.0
2009: +3.3
2010: +1.0
2011: +2.2

Plus he was the only guy who beat prime MJ (91-98) head to head in the playoffs and the only guy to outplay MJ in a series. That has to count for something.

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