RealGM Top 100 List #6

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#381 » by An Unbiased Fan » Mon Jul 14, 2014 7:50 pm

Owly wrote:Well MacGill's on my block list but from your quoting of him ...

He says off court is relevent. You seem to be arguing it isn't then go into various percieved flawed moves by Shaq, which odd because if it isn't relevent to you then it isn't relevent. If you're arguing for him to be internally consistent then you'd be well advised to preface your anti-Shaq stuff with something like "whilst I don't factor this stuff in, would you not have to factor in ...". Then the stuff against Shaq, as per my original post is odd (representing the move to LA as an easy option), misleading (the same, plus suggesting Shaq demanded out of LA) or flat out irrelevent to everyone's evaluation of his career (ring chasing).

You seem to want to argue for internal consistency but by being unclear (and aggressive) in your anti-Shaq points (which, imo, do read as raking Shaq over the coals, particularly because demanding to be traded in 2004 doesn't seem to be true), to me, you ended up making your post read as less internally consistent.

No offence, but if MacGills on your blocklist, then you don't see the context of my replies. My whole point in bringing up the Shaq stuff is that it's not relevant. Your point is the same as mine, so I'm not sure where you're going.

The only thing that should matter is a player's play/impact.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#382 » by shutupandjam » Mon Jul 14, 2014 7:50 pm

Just so everyone has this information on hand, here is the ORtg, Relative Ortg, and Ortg Z-Score of every team since 1952:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cJwgjVArGmtzsxgUvGzbXVi6tIEREjDYqM7wagArmpQ/edit?usp=sharing



Please keep in mind the pre-1974 stuff is estimated using ElGee's methodology (actually it's all estimated since we don't know the exact number of possessions without pbp, but that doesn't make too big a difference)
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#383 » by lorak » Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:15 pm

ardee wrote:
ElGee wrote:
ardee wrote:I still want to engage the KG supporters on why they think KG is such a tier above Dirk and deserves to be discussed in the top 5 while Dirk doesn't.

Let me show you some numbers.

...

So here's my case: Dirk is basically providing you more volume (6 more ppg/100 poss over their primes), on VASTLY superior efficiency. I mean look at the numbers, the gap is gigantic. Dirk has an edge of 14 ORtg points over their primes, and 8 TS% on better volume.


Ah, so you think Dantey is better than Duncan? You will be championing Reggie Miller right after Dirk?

I'm going to assume that you aren't being intellectually dishonest here and this kind of information is paramount to how you evaluate players. I see this as perhaps THE single most fundamental element in player (and team) evaluations in basketball: Scoring is not replaced in basketball, it's redistributed.

These ideas -- volume scoring, volume relation to efficiency, etc. -- that lead to a side-by-side comparison would be great in baseball where we are analyzing discrete events. In basketball, because of the interactive nature of the game (and only 1 ball), you can't say "Dirk's 'used' possessions (scoring attempts + TOV) are X points better than Garnett's...how does he make up those points!?"

There's no "making up points" in those categories. Simply put, this is because when you put Garnett on the floor instead of Dirk, the team will redistribute the possessions around Garnett's game. That means completely different possessions for the entire team. It's the reason why replacing Michael Jordan with Pete Myers doesn't cause the Bulls to lose 21 points on their offense.

(I'm going to sell my explanation short there because I go into great detail on this topic in something I'll be publishing in the future.)


Come on ElGee...

You and I both know that a scorer who's that efficient has impact that far transcends scoring.

Just watch a game from peak Shaq or Kobe. These kind of offensive players warp the entire court by just being on the court. Every player is paying attention to them even if they don't have the ball. Just the psychological threat of a guy like that is a constant distraction to defenders.

It's exactly the same as KG or Russell causing opposing offensive players to make a different play then the one they would have otherwise made.

And with Dirk, we saw this effect. Anyone who watched the '11 Playoffs saw him become a virtual blackhole, defenders sagging off their men, giving that extra half-yard that was needed for the point guard to find a shooter or for Chandler to catch a lob.

That kind of attention-drawing was what won the Mavs a title, and it wouldn't have come unless Dirk scored as much as he did and as efficiently as he did. Which is something KG could never ever do and he'd never be able to come close to Dirk's offensive impact, because nothing impacts an offense more than drawing every single opposing defender away from their men.


No one is arguing with how Dirk was superior in drawing opposing defenses attention. However, what you have to do is show how much better was Dirk on offense OVERALL (and no, comparing only TS% and ortg isn't enough) and ALSO how much better was KG on defense. Otherwise your statements on this topic would still look only like intellectually dishonest.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#384 » by ElGee » Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:19 pm

ardee wrote:
ElGee wrote:
ardee wrote:I still want to engage the KG supporters on why they think KG is such a tier above Dirk and deserves to be discussed in the top 5 while Dirk doesn't.

Let me show you some numbers.

...

So here's my case: Dirk is basically providing you more volume (6 more ppg/100 poss over their primes), on VASTLY superior efficiency. I mean look at the numbers, the gap is gigantic. Dirk has an edge of 14 ORtg points over their primes, and 8 TS% on better volume.


Ah, so you think Dantey is better than Duncan? You will be championing Reggie Miller right after Dirk?

I'm going to assume that you aren't being intellectually dishonest here and this kind of information is paramount to how you evaluate players. I see this as perhaps THE single most fundamental element in player (and team) evaluations in basketball: Scoring is not replaced in basketball, it's redistributed.

These ideas -- volume scoring, volume relation to efficiency, etc. -- that lead to a side-by-side comparison would be great in baseball where we are analyzing discrete events. In basketball, because of the interactive nature of the game (and only 1 ball), you can't say "Dirk's 'used' possessions (scoring attempts + TOV) are X points better than Garnett's...how does he make up those points!?"

There's no "making up points" in those categories. Simply put, this is because when you put Garnett on the floor instead of Dirk, the team will redistribute the possessions around Garnett's game. That means completely different possessions for the entire team. It's the reason why replacing Michael Jordan with Pete Myers doesn't cause the Bulls to lose 21 points on their offense.

(I'm going to sell my explanation short there because I go into great detail on this topic in something I'll be publishing in the future.)


Come on ElGee...

You and I both know that a scorer who's that efficient has impact that far transcends scoring.

Just watch a game from peak Shaq or Kobe. These kind of offensive players warp the entire court by just being on the court. Every player is paying attention to them even if they don't have the ball. Just the psychological threat of a guy like that is a constant distraction to defenders.

It's exactly the same as KG or Russell causing opposing offensive players to make a different play then the one they would have otherwise made.

And with Dirk, we saw this effect. Anyone who watched the '11 Playoffs saw him become a virtual blackhole, defenders sagging off their men, giving that extra half-yard that was needed for the point guard to find a shooter or for Chandler to catch a lob.

That kind of attention-drawing was what won the Mavs a title, and it wouldn't have come unless Dirk scored as much as he did and as efficiently as he did. Which is something KG could never ever do and he'd never be able to come close to Dirk's offensive impact, because nothing impacts an offense more than drawing every single opposing defender away from their men.


You just completely disregarded everything I said -- perhaps germane to a number of different polarizing player comparisons in this project -- and made an entirely new argument ("efficient scorers transcend scoring...")

You either
(a) wanted to incorporate the information that addressed your original question about your current position OR
(b) wanted to hold on to your current position

These are very different things...I have no issue with people who fall into the "b" camp, but when it becomes transparent that they are positional, it's useless to provide information. In such cases, people in the "b" cample can either move on, or when they are ready to tackle the stuff that informs their positions, re-read the original response.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#385 » by Clyde Frazier » Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:25 pm

Career - http://bkref.com/tiny/YkTxJ

1st 12 seasons - http://bkref.com/tiny/Ki6Av

Peak you can give to shaq, and I think prime is fairly even considering what both were able to accomplish. Of course shaq has longevity over magic, but he didn't accomplish all that much post prime.

Shaq in 06 finals:

13.7 PPG, 10 RPG, 2.8 APG, .5 SPG, .8 BPG, 3.2 TOPG

~61% FG, 29% FT, 53% TS, 95/99 OFF/DEF RTG

The self proclaimed "most dominant ever" was fairly pedestrian in this series while everyone stood and watched wade's magic act of continuously getting to the line.

I see some discussion about OFF RTG being skewed, but I tend to look at net OFF/DEF rating when comparing players.

Career: RS Magic 121/104 (+17), Shaq 113/101 (+12) -- PS Magic 122/107 (+15), Shaq 110/103 (+7)

1st 12 seasons: RS Magic 121/104 (+17), Shaq 114/101 (+13) -- PS Magic 122/107 (+15), Shaq 113/103 (+10)

No, this shouldn't be the defining factor in comparing the 2 players, but the sample sizes are large enough to at least take them into consideration.

I think what magic was able to accomplish in 12 seasons on a personal and team level was more impressive than shaq over the course of his career. Of course you could go either way, but i'm still surprised by magic going 4th in 2011, and now dropping all the way past 6th this year. I will continue to build on my argument as much as I can going into the next thread, though…
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#386 » by acrossthecourt » Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:30 pm

Just to reiterate a point I made earlier, Shaq's offense does not slip when he goes up against elite defenses, and he does really well in his early career in this regard.

Magic may have played in an easy western conference, but that's really only relevant for the playoffs. In the regular season, strength of schedule differences are minor.


shutupandjam wrote:For those talking about what Magic's career would have been if he hadn't been forced into retirement, that's simply outside the scope of this project imo. If we start doing this kind of thing then I see no reason why LeBron shouldn't be number 1, Durant shouldn't be top 15, and Anthony Davis shouldn't be discussed soon. This is about how good a player was in his career up to this point, not what he would have or could have done if he had more seasons.

Speaking of, here's my estimation of Magic's career stats without the early retirement:
26,047 points, 9330 rebounds, and 15,078 assists.

90sAllDecade wrote:I think this Magic vs Nash discussion on offense interesting.

Quick question, how do people think no handcheck rules in 04-05 or similar rules put in place 00-01 helped those Nash teams? Magic also played in an era of a higher Ortg, can that be due to higher pace or other factors?

Not picking a side just curious.

The rule changes applied to everyone, not just Nash's teams. Plus he had great results prior to '05 even without taking charge of the team.

GC Pantalones wrote:1. No but Nash's teams put all focus into offense. They never trotted out defensive sets, used guys that couldn't at least hit jumpers at an elite level, etc. That leads to a boosted ORTG and a very good team overall but not a winning team (also this is a criticism I used to hate about Nash but I'm seeing where it works. You need a team that can get stops or you'll fail). If Nash ran with a more balanced team with better defensive capabilities his average ORTG would probably be under Magic's.

2. Notice the numbers are given in a +4.0 form. The opponents have been accounted for already. Without that Magic is first by far.

3. This is a great question and I think he deserves most of the credit. From 83 to 85 his supporting cast got noticeably weaker with Kareem hitting a hard decline, LA losing a starting PG, and Worthy not coming into his own yet but the Lakers stayed just as good as they were before overall and their offense was way better. It happens that 84 and 85 are Magic's first 2 years running point too. You can say the same thing with the late 80s teams compared to the early 90s teams. In 88 and 89 he had a better supporting cast than in 90 and 91 but those teams were around the same in strength anyway. For such a great dynasty Magic's teams had a ton of changes around him but at no time did the team drop in quality and he kept taking a bigger and bigger role.

Well first of all that's false: Kurt Thomas. I wouldn't call him an elite shooter. Or Shaq, among a few others.

They had a few good defensive players like Marion and Raja Bell. It's not that they sacrificed defense, per se, it's more that Amare was a horrible defender, worse than people thought, and it killed their defense. Nash is an okay defender, underrated because he competes and can pick up charges, and don't blame the point guard for a bad defense. Downsizing by leaving out a big man does inflate your offense at the expense of your defense, but don't focus too much on the splits: overall they were a very strong team and Nash was the catalyst. Nash's overall numbers, like plus/minus, are among the best for his period despite his perceived defense (skin color probably comes into play here.)
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#387 » by ardee » Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:32 pm

ElGee wrote:
You just completely disregarded everything I said -- perhaps germane to a number of different polarizing player comparisons in this project -- and made an entirely new argument ("efficient scorers transcend scoring...")

You either
(a) wanted to incorporate the information that addressed your original question about your current position OR
(b) wanted to hold on to your current position

These are very different things...I have no issue with people who fall into the "b" camp, but when it becomes transparent that they are positional, it's useless to provide information. In such cases, people in the "b" cample can either move on, or when they are ready to tackle the stuff that informs their positions, re-read the original response.


My point was that you misinterpreted my previous post.

I wasn't looking at Dirk and his numbers in a vacuum like you thought I was. The whole purpose of my second post was to explain to you how I believed Dirk's efficiency tied into the team environment like you were explaining, and was not a discrete event.

I thought I definitely fell under category A, using your exposition on the nature of basketball to expand on my argument. Definitely didn't want to seem like I was ignoring your points.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#388 » by ElGee » Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:35 pm

shutupandjam wrote:Just so everyone has this information on hand, here is the ORtg, Relative Ortg, and Ortg Z-Score of every team since 1952:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cJwgjVArGmtzsxgUvGzbXVi6tIEREjDYqM7wagArmpQ/edit?usp=sharing



Please keep in mind the pre-1974 stuff is estimated using ElGee's methodology (actually it's all estimated since we don't know the exact number of possessions without pbp, but that doesn't make too big a difference)


FTR, the 14 Spurs would be just over 2 STD better when healthy. The 12 Spurs would be 3rd. The 96 and 97 Bulls are slightly understated by Rodman's missed time. Didn't see other teams near the top that need any injury adjustment...
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#389 » by andrewww » Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:35 pm

Clyde Frazier wrote:Career - http://bkref.com/tiny/YkTxJ

1st 12 seasons - http://bkref.com/tiny/Ki6Av

Peak you can give to shaq, and I think prime is fairly even considering what both were able to accomplish. Of course shaq has longevity over magic, but he didn't accomplish all that much post prime.

Shaq in 06 finals:

13.7 PPG, 10 RPG, 2.8 APG, .5 SPG, .8 BPG, 3.2 TOPG

~61% FG, 29% FT, 53% TS, 95/99 OFF/DEF RTG

The self proclaimed "most dominant ever" was fairly pedestrian in this series while everyone stood and watched wade's magic act of continuously getting to the line.

I see some discussion about OFF RTG being skewed, but I tend to look at net OFF/DEF rating when comparing players.

Career: RS Magic 121/104 (+17), Shaq 113/101 (+12) -- PS Magic 122/107 (+15), Shaq 110/103 (+7)

1st 12 seasons: RS Magic 121/104 (+17), Shaq 114/101 (+13) -- PS Magic 122/107 (+15), Shaq 113/103 (+10)

No, this shouldn't be the defining factor in comparing the 2 players, but the sample sizes are large enough to at least take them into consideration.

I think what magic was able to accomplish in 12 seasons on a personal and team level was more impressive than shaq over the course of his career. Of course you could go either way, but i'm still surprised by magic going 4th in 2011, and now dropping all the way past 6th this year. I will continue to build on my argument as much as I can going into the next thread, though…


My thoughts exactly as well.

Thus far, this year's project has trended towards two-way impact bigs as better individual building blocks than even their transcendent counter parts. Perhaps Shaq in most circumstances would be the even better player to start a franchise with given his incredible offensive efficiency even when compared to other bigs of this caliber (KAJ/Wilt/Hakeem to name a few).

But were these strengths enough to cover up his difficiencies for most of his career when at his best, he was considered an above average defender but at his worse as a liability on the PNR? For every wing player that gets pegged down a notch because they had the privilege to play with him, it goes both ways.

Maybe Shaq had more 'tools' to impact a game on both sides of the ball, but ultimately what this project is about is both the discussion of why a certain player accomplished what they did and how. In this regard, Magic has had every bit the impact on the final result that Shaq has had, if not more imho.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#390 » by colts18 » Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:43 pm

ElGee wrote:
FTR, the 14 Spurs would be just over 2 STD better when healthy. The 12 Spurs would be 3rd. The 96 and 97 Bulls are slightly understated by Rodman's missed time. Didn't see other teams near the top that need any injury adjustment...

You have to make that adjustment for Stockton's injury in 1998. The Jazz were a +8.77 offense (would be 2nd all-time) when he played. With the adjustment, the 98 Jazz would rank 6th on this list
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#391 » by Owly » Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:47 pm

Spoiler:
GC Pantalones wrote:
Owly wrote:
GC Pantalones wrote:They're 8th in standard deviations which is the best way to measure. The 07 Suns are on extreme not expected to be replicated level (3.25 standard deviations putting them in the 99.88th percentile). The top 3 ORTGs in playoff history belong to Magic led Lakers teams (87, 85, 89) and on 2 of those teams he was the main scoring threat.

If you look at a list of who's played for the beat offenses Nash and Amare are 1 and 2 and Magic is third. This underrates Magic though because Nash's teams were completely one sided. I mean if you look at their playoff numbers Nash is first in average offensive rating (+4.5) with Magic at second (+4.0) but Magic's team were barely bad on defense (+0.4) while Nash has the worst playoff defenses ever for anyone looked at (+3.4). To get a feeling how bad that defense is the next closest is Drexler at +2.4 followed by Bird at +0.8.

The 8th in standard deviations is from 1974 to 2002. I don't know if James has standard deviations for his top 20 teams but 5 of his top 10 (http://shutupandjam.net/2013/04/10/pre-1974-pace-and-more/) are outside the time span in question and my suspicion is that at least those 5 will come out superior to the '87 Lakers.

And with regard to defense that doesn't matter within the context of this thread of discussion (of the best offensiv player ever) unless you are specifically contending that the team (or especially the percieved leader) deliberately traded defense for offense (stuff like leaking out, perhaps low defensive effort) which might make the offense somewhat artificial.

GC Pantalones wrote:As of 2011 they were still 8th.

I'm guessing people might want a source for this. Because since the writing of Basketball on Paper, the '04 Mavericks were 2.712211871, standard deviations above league average which would have placed them on top of Oliver's list. Indeed James has posted a link which suggests the Lakers are 14th by standard deviations (of the 13 above only one is pre '74, none are post 2011).

Spoiler:
An Unbiased Fan wrote:
Owly wrote:Well MacGill's on my block list but from your quoting of him ...

He says off court is relevent. You seem to be arguing it isn't then go into various percieved flawed moves by Shaq, which odd because if it isn't relevent to you then it isn't relevent. If you're arguing for him to be internally consistent then you'd be well advised to preface your anti-Shaq stuff with something like "whilst I don't factor this stuff in, would you not have to factor in ...". Then the stuff against Shaq, as per my original post is odd (representing the move to LA as an easy option), misleading (the same, plus suggesting Shaq demanded out of LA) or flat out irrelevent to everyone's evaluation of his career (ring chasing).

You seem to want to argue for internal consistency but by being unclear (and aggressive) in your anti-Shaq points (which, imo, do read as raking Shaq over the coals, particularly because demanding to be traded in 2004 doesn't seem to be true), to me, you ended up making your post read as less internally consistent.

No offence, but if MacGills on your blocklist, then you don't see the context of my replies. My whole point in bringing up the Shaq stuff is that it's not relevant. Your point is the same as mine, so I'm not sure where you're going.

The only thing that should matter is a player's play/impact.

Unless your quotations of him are partial, I should understand what he's said. And my point (where I'm going) was ... why so aggressive with Shaq if off court stuff doesn't matter (particularly as the Shaq "trade demand", which iirc was after LA fired Jackson and said they really wanted to keep Kobe and would be willing to trade Shaq if he were to demand it (i.e. made clear he wasn't wanted, and that they were shopping him, which is why they got a mediocre haul for him, whilst presumably trying to bait him into demanding a trade so they could try to say, "We don't want to move him but as he's demanding it, make us a good offer", just a really odd move, even after accounting for their wanting to move him to keep Kobe, but I digress). Anyway yeah the anti-Shaq stuff was oddly vehement and to me detracted from what seemed to be your point. It's not an argument for or against players (or criteria) it's a critique of debating style. I think if you're saying something is off the table don't bring it up, and if you think someone's inconsistent call them on it (as politely as possible, but clearly). But saying "Shaq did this ... Shaq did that" reads as "I think Shaq did worse things" which is an incompatible argument when discussing rankings with "off-court is off the table for me". Not that you can't think both are true, but you can't think that the latter is true and that the former is relevent.

It really doesn't matter but I just thought the slightly mixed message made your argument less coherent and thus might be less persuasive.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#392 » by lorak » Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:49 pm

ardee wrote:
ElGee wrote:
You just completely disregarded everything I said -- perhaps germane to a number of different polarizing player comparisons in this project -- and made an entirely new argument ("efficient scorers transcend scoring...")

You either
(a) wanted to incorporate the information that addressed your original question about your current position OR
(b) wanted to hold on to your current position

These are very different things...I have no issue with people who fall into the "b" camp, but when it becomes transparent that they are positional, it's useless to provide information. In such cases, people in the "b" cample can either move on, or when they are ready to tackle the stuff that informs their positions, re-read the original response.


My point was that you misinterpreted my previous post.

I wasn't looking at Dirk and his numbers in a vacuum like you thought I was. The whole purpose of my second post was to explain to you how I believed Dirk's efficiency tied into the team environment like you were explaining, and was not a discrete event.

I thought I definitely fell under category A, using your exposition on the nature of basketball to expand on my argument. Definitely didn't want to seem like I was ignoring your points.


And what about my points? You ignored them completely, while they show that pro Dirk argument you used is flawed in that comparison (because it ignores other player strengths and doesn't show how exactly valuable were both of them).
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#393 » by ardee » Mon Jul 14, 2014 9:02 pm

lorak wrote:
ardee wrote:
ElGee wrote:
You just completely disregarded everything I said -- perhaps germane to a number of different polarizing player comparisons in this project -- and made an entirely new argument ("efficient scorers transcend scoring...")

You either
(a) wanted to incorporate the information that addressed your original question about your current position OR
(b) wanted to hold on to your current position

These are very different things...I have no issue with people who fall into the "b" camp, but when it becomes transparent that they are positional, it's useless to provide information. In such cases, people in the "b" cample can either move on, or when they are ready to tackle the stuff that informs their positions, re-read the original response.


My point was that you misinterpreted my previous post.

I wasn't looking at Dirk and his numbers in a vacuum like you thought I was. The whole purpose of my second post was to explain to you how I believed Dirk's efficiency tied into the team environment like you were explaining, and was not a discrete event.

I thought I definitely fell under category A, using your exposition on the nature of basketball to expand on my argument. Definitely didn't want to seem like I was ignoring your points.


And what about my points? You ignored them completely, while they show that pro Dirk argument you used is flawed in that comparison (because it ignores other player strengths and doesn't show how exactly valuable were both of them).


It's 230 am where I am, I'll reply in the morning. My apologies, I missed your reply.

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#394 » by penbeast0 » Mon Jul 14, 2014 9:12 pm

This one goes to SHAQUILLE O'NEAL (totals on page 19)
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#395 » by DQuinn1575 » Mon Jul 14, 2014 9:16 pm

GC Pantalones wrote:

In the few transition seasons LA had like 84 where they retooled in 2 years the team still never fell off because of Magic. 3 years prior to 84 they lost Magic and went along just fine but in 84 they lost Magic for 15 games and looked very mediocre. Those teams didn't drop in overall quality and he never played on a bad team but those supporting casts were getting worse around him (very slowly) at points but the team didn't skip a beat.




I looked at 1986 before, as that year had full game stats to see his impact on offense.




Magic missed 10 games, but the last one was the last game of the season where the Lakers rested all their stars.

So, 72 games with, 9 games without Magic

Pts/Poss/PPP

8451/7556/1.118
1063/958/1.110


5 home games/4 away in the 9 - Average DRtg of the teams was 108.0 vs 107.2 league average

So, 111.8 - 107.2 = 4.6 with
111- 108.0 = 3.0 without

Making it 1.6 per 100 possessions better with Magic






1984 - He played 67 games, 36 home and 31 away. So he missed 5 home and 10 away.

67 games played - outscored opponents by 288 points - say 4 point hca * 5 games = 268 points


268/67 = 4.0 Plus with Magic

15 games not played - outscored opponents by 20 points - add 4 point hca * 5 games = 40 points


40/15 = 2.7 Plus without Magic


1.3 ppg (not adjusted for opponents- being lazy) difference



Not exactly greatest of all-time stuff
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#396 » by magicmerl » Mon Jul 14, 2014 9:38 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:It seems that after Russell got picked, actual play/impact has taken a backseat to RAPM, PER, off court stuff.

Not russell, wilt. Those are the 'big two' (along with early Kareem) that have data prior to all of the 'perPossession' stats counting.

It was really hard to do per100Possession analyses that included them.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#397 » by Texas Chuck » Mon Jul 14, 2014 9:50 pm

lorak wrote:First of all you didn't show Dirk's offense was "that much more". Unless you think comparison of TS% and individual ortg is end of the story...

Second, it's possible that Dirk was ok on defense and great on offense, but KG still was better overall player, because his offense was better than Nowitzki's defense, and KG's defense was better than Dirk's offense - and that's actually how it was in reality, but to see that you have to look deeper than only on TS% and ortg. Especially when one player in comparison is a scorer and value of the other one comes mainly from things DIFFERENT than scoring. So unfortunately it seems that you arbitrary chose criteria, which would make Dirk looks better and KG worse, but will not show whole picture of their value.



Why are you hounding Ardee to respond to this rebuttal? You didn't exactly give any support other than you don't like looking at TS% and ortg and that you personally believe the sum of KG's defense and offense is greater than Dirk's.



Basically your entire post is simply saying, nope I still think KG is better. Great, lots of guys do. Now give an actual rebuttal if you are going to demand an answer. I wouldn't have seen your post as anything requiring a personal response.

Not to mention a lot of what Ardee posted goes beyond just their abilities as scorers. Dirk's presence is having a huge impact on the offensive end for his teams in comparison with KG over the samples Ardee gave. A Huge difference. Now it may be that the total contributions KG makes is enough to overcome that. So show him that.

And his criteria isnt "arbitrary", its offense. He was trying to point out that the believe that the difference between the 2 offensively is small while the gap defensively is enormous may in fact be incorrect. He's simply giving the offensive end. He's not attempting to talk about the other areas in that post.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 -- Shaq v. Magic 

Post#398 » by lorak » Mon Jul 14, 2014 9:56 pm

Chuck Texas wrote:
Not to mention a lot of what Ardee posted goes beyond just their abilities as scorers. Dirk's presence is having a huge impact on the offensive end for his teams in comparison with KG over the samples Ardee gave. A Huge difference.


How huge exactly? How he (and you?) measures that? Why he thinks KG's defensive impact can't overcame that offensive difference?

Now it may be that the total contributions KG makes is enough to overcome that. So show him that.


Burden of proof is on him in that situation.

And his criteria isnt "arbitrary", its offense. He was trying to point out that the believe that the difference between the 2 offensively is small while the gap defensively is enormous may in fact be incorrect. He's simply giving the offensive end. He's not attempting to talk about the other areas in that post.


Well, he should if he wants to know why some people think KG should be voted now, while no one is mentioning Dirk yet. Not talking about other areas (especially defense), from where most of KG's value comes from, is ignoring the reasons why people already are discussing about Garnett.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 

Post#399 » by Texas Chuck » Mon Jul 14, 2014 10:02 pm

He gave proof of a massive gap offensively. I don't see how you are missing that. It's right in front of you. But its not hard for you to look at the Mavericks offenses from 02 forward and see how good they have been despite massive changes in personel and coaches around Dirk.

He's not required to do anything about defense in a post specifically talking about how the offensive gap is really quite big between the 2. Some guys like you look at KG's assist totals and mistake that for him having offensive impact similar to Dirk. He isnt.

Much like KG is a very unique defensive talent impacting the game in many ways(See drza's outstanding post in this regard) Dirk does the same thing. When we get to him I will be making a long post detailing some of how and why Dirk is able to have the impact the numbers are showing him to have.

There isnt much point in discussing Dirk's defense as a response to the stuff posted about KG's defense already because Dirk doesnt come close to KG on that end. KG is a GOAT-level defender. Dirk isnt anything close to that.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6 

Post#400 » by lorak » Mon Jul 14, 2014 10:11 pm

Chuck Texas wrote:He gave proof of a massive gap offensively. I don't see how you are missing that.



And I don't see how you are missing that TS% and individual ortg doesn't say how big exactly that difference is... offense is more than that, really. And next post with addidtion how defenses focused around Dirk also doesn't answer to a question how big exactly was Dirk's offensive impact and why it was so HUGHE (your own words) in comparison with Garnett's.


. Some guys like you look at KG's assist totals and mistake that for him having offensive impact similar to Dirk.


Where did I say something like that? Because I'm pretty sure you are lying here :(

There isnt much point in discussing Dirk's defense as a response to the stuff posted about KG's defense already because Dirk doesnt come close to KG on that end. KG is a GOAT-level defender. Dirk isnt anything close to that.


Ardee wrote his post about Dirk offense, because he was wondering why KG is discussed now and Dirk isn't. If you want answer to that question you can't focus only on offense, because most of Garnett's value comes from the other end of the floor. That's why it's important to talk about both aspects of the game, about overall impact, otherwise you wouldn't understand why KG is voted already by some people and Dirk not.

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