RealGM Top 100 List #7

[E-Balla]

I'm voting Magic Johnson

snip

The numbers I pulled before actually listed the standard deviations of RS + PS (notice how much higher LA ranks after doing this). Here's the BBR post http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6205 .

My case against Magic:



1986

Magic missed 10 games, but the last one was the last game of the season where the Lakers rested all their stars.

So, 72 games with, 9 games without Magic

Pts/Poss/PPP

8451/7556/1.118
1063/958/1.110


5 home games/4 away in the 9 - Average DRtg of the teams was 108.0 vs 107.2 league average

So, 111.8 - 107.2 = 4.6 with
111- 108.0 = 3.0 without

Making it 1.6 per 100 possessions better with Magic






1984 - He played 67 games, 36 home and 31 away. So he missed 5 home and 10 away.

67 games played - outscored opponents by 288 points - say 4 point hca * 5 games = 268 points


268/67 = 4.0 Plus with Magic

15 games not played - outscored opponents by 20 points - add 4 point hca * 5 games = 40 points


40/15 = 2.7 Plus without Magic


1.3 ppg (not adjusted for opponents- being lazy) difference

Not exactly greatest of all-time stuff

Here's Elgee's numbers (they were better in those 9 games):


Is a small sample and with his other numbers and a healthy dose of common sense it's easy to just call it an unusual fluctuation. 9 games is a test case not really a full sample (under 700-800 minutes isn't really a meaningful sample).

[Purch]

Karl Malone needs more traction here



His averages for 16 years between 1986-2003

22/10/2
28/12/2
29/11/3
31/11/3
29/12/3
28/11/3
27/11/4
25/12/4
27/11/4
26/10/4
27/10/4
27/10/5
24/9/4
26/10/4
23/8/5
22/9/4
21/8/5


In the 11 straight bolded seasons from 1989-1999 he was all nba 1st team.

If you want to talk about player durability look no further than Karl Malone.

In 17 out of his 19 seasons he played 80 or more games
For comparison Kevin Garnett has only played 80 games 8 out of the 19 years of his career
Not only that but Malone accomplished this whiles playing 2,624 more playoff minutes than Garnett in his career

He's the oldest player in Nba history to win Mvp at age 35.


His longevity in the playoffs is just as impressive

22/8/1
20/10/1
30/12/2
31/16/1
25/10/2
30/13/3
29/11/3
24/10/2
27/12/3
30/13/4
27/10/4
26/11/3
26/10/3
22/11/5
27/9/3
28/9/3
20/8/5
20/7/4

That's an 18 year span in the post season

So if you guys are criticizing Magic and Bird for their durability and longevity, that same focus should be propelling Malone up in these rankings.


Also for you guys who put great value in the "player efficency stat" or "PER"rating, Malone's consistency in that statistic speaks for itself.

For 13 seasons from 1988-2001 Karl Malone was top 5 in "PER" in a league that included extremely efficient players like ; David Robinson, Shaq, Barkley, Ewing, Hakeem and Jordan all in their prime

1988-1989 - #5 In PER (24.4)
1989-1990- #2 In PER (27.2)
1990-1991- #5 In Per (24.8)
1991-1992- #3 in PER (25.4)
1992-1993- #3 in PER (26.2)
1993-1994- #5 in PER (22.9)
1994-1995- #5 In Per (25.1)
1995-1996- #4 in PER (26.0)
1996-1997- #1 in Per (28.9)
1997-1998- #2 in Per (27.9)
1998-1999- #2 in Per (25.6)
1999-2000- #2 in PER (27.1)
2000-2001- #4 In Per (24.7)

That shows ridiculous efficiency over such a long period of time. That very few can match

Also for you guys who seem to value win shares as a legitimate stat.. Malone was consistently elite in that as well


1988-1989 - #5 in Win Shares (15.2)
1989-1990- #4 in Win Shares (15.9)
1990-1991- #3 in Win Shares (15.5)
1991-1992- #2 in Win Shares (15.1)
1992-1993- #3 in Win Shares (15.4)
1993-1994- #4 In Win Shares (13.4)
1994-1995- #4 in Win Shares (13.8)
1995-1996- #3 in Win Shares (15.1)
1996-1997- #2 in Win Shares (16.7)
1997-1998- #1 in Win Shares (16.4)
1998-1999- #1 in Win Shares (9.6)
1999-2000- #2 in Win Shares (15.3)
2000-2001- #5 in Win Shares (13.1)

That again is 13 straight years of being top 5 in the league in Win Shares.

In Offensive win Shares he's 6th all time trailing only Jordan, Oscar, Kareem, Wilt and Stockton.

In Defensive win shares he's a 6th all time (Ahead of Garnett) only trailing Russell, Duncan,Kareem , Hakeem and Wilt

For his career he only trails Wilt Chamberlin and Kareem in total win shares, he's 3rd all time.

So for a 13 year span from age 24-37 Malone was top 5 in PER and WIN Shares every single year, whiles being top 5 in the league in Points per game every single one of those years

[E-Balla]

Karl Malone needs more traction here



His averages for 16 years between 1986-2003

22/10/2
28/12/2
29/11/3
31/11/3
29/12/3
28/11/3
27/11/4
25/12/4
27/11/4
26/10/4
27/10/4
27/10/5
24/9/4
26/10/4
23/8/5
22/9/4
21/8/5


In the 11 straight bolded seasons from 1989-1999 he was all nba 1st team.

If you want to talk about player durability look no further than Karl Malone.

In 17 out of his 19 seasons he played 80 or more games
For comparison Kevin Garnett has only played 80 games 8 out of the 19 years of his career

He's the oldest player in Nba history to win Mvp at age 35.


His longevity in the playoffs is just as impressive

22/8/1
20/10/1
30/12/2
31/16/1
25/10/2
30/13/3
29/11/3
24/10/2
27/12/3
30/13/4
27/10/4
26/11/3
26/10/3
22/11/5
27/9/3
28/9/3
20/8/5
20/7/4

That's an 18 year span in the post season

So if you guys are criticizing Magic and Bird for their durability and longevity, that same focus should be propelling Malone up in these rankings.

I think if you can make an argument of how great he was at his best and show he was at that level for most of that prime he'd get votes. Personally I'm not convinced he was as great as his numbers suggest.

[O_6]

Jordan -- wing
Kareem
Russell
Wilt
Duncan
Shaq

I think it's fascinating that Jordan is considered the GOAT, and yet the next 5 players we have voted in have been Bigs.

It's clear that the dominant two-way Big is the most prized asset in NBA history. It's the reason why Bigs tend to get drafted higher than Wings with similar talent and it's the reason why they get paid more in Free Agency compared to similar wing talent.

So because of that, I feel like Hakeem and Garnett deserve a strong look here. I've always been high on Hakeem but the KG support in this thread has really forced me to re-evaluate where KG stands historically. And although I'm not all in on the KG support, I've certainly become more impressed by KG when looking at his case again. David Robinson also deserves a look here as he fits the description, but his lack of longevity hurts him compared to the other candidates.

But why was MJ chosen over all of those Bigs? What did he have from the wing position that overcame the natural edge that Bigs have? Well he had an All-Time great offensive game and wings tend to have a higher offensive impact than Bigs. And he also had a tremendous defensive impact for his position.

LeBron is the only wing that fits that category right now. Magic might be the offensive GOAT but he doesn't provide that kind of game-changing defense that Jordan/LeBron provided to make up for the natural defensive edge that Bigs have. Kobe/West/Oscar/Dr. J are other wings in the mix but I don't think they are great candidates just yet.

Bird is just so unique in NBA history. I don't even know where to place him. He's kind of in his own world in my mind. But if I had to, I'd place him at the top of the Dirk/Malone/Barkley tier since he is probably more of a PF than a SF in the modern game anyway and his primary impact came from offense just like those guys.

I haven't made my mind up right now but it's looking like LeBron vs. Hakeem for me, with Magic a clear 3rd and a couple of others like Bird/KG/Kobe/Dirk longshots but alive in the convo.

[Purch]

Karl Malone needs more traction here



His averages for 16 years between 1986-2003

22/10/2
28/12/2
29/11/3
31/11/3
29/12/3
28/11/3
27/11/4
25/12/4
27/11/4
26/10/4
27/10/4
27/10/5
24/9/4
26/10/4
23/8/5
22/9/4
21/8/5


In the 11 straight bolded seasons from 1989-1999 he was all nba 1st team.

If you want to talk about player durability look no further than Karl Malone.

In 17 out of his 19 seasons he played 80 or more games
For comparison Kevin Garnett has only played 80 games 8 out of the 19 years of his career

He's the oldest player in Nba history to win Mvp at age 35.


His longevity in the playoffs is just as impressive

22/8/1
20/10/1
30/12/2
31/16/1
25/10/2
30/13/3
29/11/3
24/10/2
27/12/3
30/13/4
27/10/4
26/11/3
26/10/3
22/11/5
27/9/3
28/9/3
20/8/5
20/7/4

That's an 18 year span in the post season

So if you guys are criticizing Magic and Bird for their durability and longevity, that same focus should be propelling Malone up in these rankings.

I think if you can make an argument of how great he was at his best and show he was at that level for most of that prime he'd get votes. Personally I'm not convinced he was as great as his numbers suggest.

Well that's an argument that I'll attempt to make later on. Right now since the theme of the past couple of threads has been arguments based on longevity, that's what I wanted to argue about Malone. There maybe two players brought up in this whole project so far that can compete with Malone's longevity, but not a single one can compete with his combination of longevity and durability

[acrossthecourt]

My main knock on him is the ceiling of his teams (their potential if you will when compared to other historically great teams) when you consider how the jury is still out if LeBron can maximize his impact if his team were to become more traditional with him at the SF spot. It`s worth nothing that most people would consider that in the post-Jordan era, the clear two best teams both over the long haul (1999-present) and in individual seasons (2001 Lakers or 2014 Spurs) have been the Lakers and Spurs, and that none of the 2 title teams for LeBron are among the pantheon of all-time great teams for a reason (the lack of true big men in the current era makes it much easier to have small ball thrive).

LeBron remained a SF with the Heat.... Battier was the PF, not LeBron.

The problem was Wade's poor outside shooting meant they needed another shooter on the court, hence Bosh at center.

However, please consider the Heat were much better this season with Chris Andersen at the center spot. LeBron can do fine in traditional lineups. That's not an issue.


To bring up an older point, I ran Hakeem's numbers versus defenses, and over an 11 year period (or 12) his offense fell off as you'd expect given the level of the opposing defense. Meaning, he was not a magical elite defense killer. In a three year period in his prime, he was a lot better in this respect, but it's only three years.

And remember, the Sonics beat them in '93, which is probably his best season, yet they lost in the first round in '94. With Jordan's retirement and that loss, the Rockets were lucky.


LeBron's got four seasons that rank among the best over, '14 isn't far behind, '11 is underrated, and he has a handful of high quality seasons before '09. He's got enough longevity now to match up against Magic and Bird.

[ronnymac2]

And remember, the Sonics beat them in '93, which is probably his best season, yet they lost in the first round in '94. With Jordan's retirement and that loss, the Rockets were lucky.

What does this have to do with Hakeem Olajuwon?

[penbeast0]

How about Mikan?

He is really difficult to judge. I wouldn't put him anywhere in the top 10, I think by top 15 you could put him. He came in when the sport was just kicking off, so he is very difficult to judge. Also only played 60 games a year when he was playing, so would have to prorate his wins.

Actually, I was curious about his HCA/nHCA splits. I haven't found much differentiation in the HCA splits but the non-HCA splits seem to be a lot wider.

Doesn't answer the main questions about Mikan: Era differential, portability, relative power of his team (Mickelson, Pollard, and Martin were all considered arguably the best in the league at their positions as well, though Mikan was clearly the star), numbers relative to league average particularly efficiency, how was his passing out of the post, his defensive edge, etc.

Lots and lots of questions but after LeBron goes in, Mikan is the only guy left who was the clear and undisputed best player in the league for any length of time.

[andrewww]

My main knock on him is the ceiling of his teams (their potential if you will when compared to other historically great teams) when you consider how the jury is still out if LeBron can maximize his impact if his team were to become more traditional with him at the SF spot. It`s worth nothing that most people would consider that in the post-Jordan era, the clear two best teams both over the long haul (1999-present) and in individual seasons (2001 Lakers or 2014 Spurs) have been the Lakers and Spurs, and that none of the 2 title teams for LeBron are among the pantheon of all-time great teams for a reason (the lack of true big men in the current era makes it much easier to have small ball thrive).

LeBron remained a SF with the Heat.... Battier was the PF, not LeBron.

The problem was Wade's poor outside shooting meant they needed another shooter on the court, hence Bosh at center.

However, please consider the Heat were much better this season with Chris Andersen at the center spot. LeBron can do fine in traditional lineups. That's not an issue.


To bring up an older point, I ran Hakeem's numbers versus defenses, and over an 11 year period (or 12) his offense fell off as you'd expect given the level of the opposing defense. Meaning, he was not a magical elite defense killer. In a three year period in his prime, he was a lot better in this respect, but it's only three years.

And remember, the Sonics beat them in '93, which is probably his best season, yet they lost in the first round in '94. With Jordan's retirement and that loss, the Rockets were lucky.


LeBron's got four seasons that rank among the best over, '14 isn't far behind, '11 is underrated, and he has a handful of high quality seasons before '09. He's got enough longevity now to match up against Magic and Bird.

It`s not as simple as saying Wade couldn`t shoot which while true, wasn`t my original premise. While LeBron is certainly capable of playing at the 3, the bottom line is that what made Miami successful was small ball, saying otherwise is not accurate. The Heat won their two championships not with Bosh at the 4 and Birdman at the 5 as the primary lineup. Rarely did the Heat up size to match up with their opponents because what made them special was having as little personnel in the paint as possible to allow for drives by LeBron or Wade. The jury is still out on whether or not LeBron can be successful (as in win championships) by playing that style of ball primarily. It`s not to say he can`t, but he hasn`t yet shown us that and that`s the premise of this project, which is what has happened not what could happen.

Furthermore, I`d like to hear an in depth analysis by any of the contributors to this project on what I perceive as LeBron`s cap on his number of field goal attempts, and whether this a premise that more of you can elaborate on (whether or not my claims are unfounded or justified).

[SactoKingsFan]

I’ve had LeBron as the best player remaining since the #5 vote, therefore, I’ll be voting for him at #7 over Magic. Both dominated in different ways, but I think LeBron’s extremely diverse skill set made him more dominant during his peak seasons.

Thread #5 and #6 posts where I explained why I voted for LeBron:
viewtopic.php?p=40505597#p40505597
viewtopic.php?p=40612580#p40612580


Prime RS Advanced

LeBron Prime (09-14) RS: 30.2 PER, .613 TS%, 120 ORtg, 101 ORtg, 104.0 WS, .290 WS/48
Magic Prime (81-91) RS: 24.5 PER, .610 TS%, 122 ORtg, 105 DRtg, 141.7 WS, .231 WS/48
MP: 29492

LeBron 05-14 RS: 28.8 PER, .590 TS%, 118 ORtg, 102 DRtg, 163.5 WS, .260 WS/48
MP: 30154


Prime RS Per 100

LeBron Prime (09-14) RS Per 100: 38.5 PTS, 10.4 RB, 9.9 AST, 3.4 STL+BLK, 4.6 TOV
Magic Prime (81-91) RS Per 100: 25.6 PTS, 9.3 RB, 15.1 AST, 2.9 STL+BLK,, 5.0 TOV

LeBron 05-14 RS Per 100: 37.9 PTS, 10.0 RB, 9.4 AST, 3.4 STL+BLK, 4.4 TOV

-----

Prime PS Advanced

LeBron (09-14): 29.4 PER, .599 TS%, 119 ORtg, 102 DRtg, 26.3 WS, .270 WS/48
Magic (81-91): 23.1 PER, .595 TS%, 123 ORtg, 108 DRtg, 29.4 WS, .209 WS/48

LeBron (06-14): 27.7 PER, .578 TS%, 116 ORtg, 101 DRtg, 33.8 WS, .242 WS/48

Prime PS Per 100

LeBron (09-14): 37.1 PTS, 11.3 RB, 8.1 AST, 3.5 STL + BLK, 4.2 TOV
Magic (81-91): 24.2 PTS, 9.1 RB, 15.7 AST, 2.9 STL+ BLK, 4.5 TOV

LeBron (06-14): 36.3 PTS, 10.9 RB, 8.4 AST, 3.3 STL+BLK, 4.5 TOV

LeBron’s Top 3 Seasons

09 LeBron: 31.7 PER, .591 TS%, 122 ORtg, 99 DRtg, 20.3 WS, .318 WS/48
09 LeBron Per 100: 40.8 PTS, 10.9 RB, 10.4 AST, 4.0 STL+BLK, 4.3 TOV

10 LeBron: 31.1 PER, .604 TS%, 121 ORtg, 102 DRtg, 18.5 WS, .299 WS/48
10 LeBron Per 100: 40.0 PTS, 9.8 RB, 11.5 AST, 3.6 STL+AST, 4.6 TOV

13 LeBron: 31.6 PER, .640 TS%, 125 ORtg, 101 DRtg, 19.3 WS, .322 WS/48
13 LeBron Per 100: 37.5 PTS, 11.2 RB, 10.1 AST, 3.6 STL+BLK, 4.2 TOV

Magic’s Top 3 Seasons

87 Magic: 27.0 PER, .602 TS%, 124 ORtg, 106 DRtg, 15.9 WS, .263 WS/48
87 Magic Per 100: 31.1 PTS, 8.2 RB, 15.9 AST, 2.8 STL+BLK, 4.9 TOV

89 Magic: 26.9 PER, .625 TS%, 125 ORtg, 105 DRtg, 16.1 WS, .267 WS/48
89 Magic Per 100: 28.7 PTS, 10.1 RB, 16.4 AST, 2.7 STL+BLK, 5.2 TOV

90 Magic: 26.6 PER, .622 TS%, 126 ORtg, 106 ORtg, 16.5 WS, .270 WS/48
90 Magic Per 100: 30.0 PTS, 8.9 RB, 15.4 AST, 2.8 STL+BLK, 4.9 TOV

-----

Magic does not have the edge in longevity if you compare 81-91 Magic to 05-14 LeBron, who played slightly fewer games and more minutes (763; 30,154) in 10 seasons than Magic in 11 seasons (797; 29,492).

Both used their physical talents, all-time IQ and skill sets to dominate in different ways. Magic is probably the GOAT passer and was a key component in some of the best offenses in NBA history. LeBron is like a swiss army knife in that he can provide whatever a team needs during specific stretches (elite passing, rebounding, defend 1-4, perimeter defense, shooting, etc).

In addition to having a more versatile skill set, LeBron peaked higher than Magic. His 3 best seasons (09, 10, 13) are more impressive than Magic’s top 3 seasons (87, 89, 90). Therefore, I’d give the peak edge to LeBron. Even if you consider 05-14 LeBron vs. prime Magic a wash (I don't), I still think LeBron has surpassed Magic due to his overall skill set, defensive edge and superior peak.


VOTE: LeBron James

[therealbig3]

I think I've changed my mind about Bird vs Magic, mainly due to ElGee's post and my own personal review of them. I think Bird was just the better player, and the difference in longevity is pretty overblown.

However, I don't think I'm gonna take either player at this spot. I'm strongly considering either Hakeem or Garnett at this spot.

[acrossthecourt]

And remember, the Sonics beat them in '93, which is probably his best season, yet they lost in the first round in '94. With Jordan's retirement and that loss, the Rockets were lucky.

What does this have to do with Hakeem Olajuwon?

People use '94 to prove he's top 5 ever and state how he's able to win a title with "no" help, but that title wasn't a 100 percent certainty and lucky comes into almost every title. It's that winning bias again. That guys "guarantee" you titles.

[therealbig3]

Karl Malone is definitely another guy I'm thinking about too, as well Dr. J, Dirk, and Kobe.

My next group of players would be Olajuwon, Garnett, James, K. Malone, Erving, Bird, Johnson, Nowitzki, and Bryant in some order.

[JordansBulls]

And remember, the Sonics beat them in '93, which is probably his best season, yet they lost in the first round in '94. With Jordan's retirement and that loss, the Rockets were lucky.

What does this have to do with Hakeem Olajuwon?

Or Jordan??

[Jim Naismith]

However, I don't think I'm gonna take either player at this spot. I'm strongly considering either Hakeem or Garnett at this spot.

What does Garnett have over Hakeem?

[An Unbiased Fan]

How about Mikan?

He is really difficult to judge. I wouldn't put him anywhere in the top 10, I think by top 15 you could put him. He came in when the sport was just kicking off, so he is very difficult to judge. Also only played 60 games a year when he was playing, so would have to prorate his wins.

Actually, I was curious about his HCA/nHCA splits. I haven't found much differentiation in the HCA splits but the non-HCA splits seem to be a lot wider.

Doesn't answer the main questions about Mikan: Era differential, portability, relative power of his team (Mickelson, Pollard, and Martin were all considered arguably the best in the league at their positions as well, though Mikan was clearly the star), numbers relative to league average particularly efficiency, how was his passing out of the post, his defensive edge, etc.

Lots and lots of questions but after LeBron goes in, Mikan is the only guy left who was the clear and undisputed best player in the league for any length of time.

I'm a big Mikan guy, but his longevity is the issue. Petitt went #19 last time, so i could see Mikan in the low teens.

[rico381]

I am once again voting for LeBron James.

I've made the case for him in detail before, and I've copied it with slight edits inside spoiler tags here:

Spoiler:

The most impressive thing to me about LeBron is his peak-level performance. LeBron's an incredibly tough guy to pin down in terms of a one-year peak; partly because his game has evolved as he's had different situations around him, and partly because he's got more truly historically great seasons than anyone else still on the board. This recent thread asked people to rank LeBron's 5 best seasons (09, 10, 12-14), and there wasn't a huge consensus. Most had 09, 12, and 13 as the top 3 in some order and 10 and 14 below, but all five are all-timers in their own right. Just looking at the worst of those, in 2010 he averaged 29.7-7.3-8.6 on .604 TS%, good for a 31.1 PER and .299 WS/48 (both PER and WS/48 rank in the top 10 single-season marks all-time), and in 2014 his numbers slipped a bit, but he led the league in RAPM, then had one of the greatest playoff runs ever (.668 TS%, 31.1 PER).

Looking at raw totals, LeBron's longevity is on the lower end, but certainly not devastatingly so. He's now up to 33276 career regular-season minutes. Magic had 33245. Bird had 34443. Jordan played 35887 in Chicago. In terms of per-minute impact, I'd put LeBron closer to the Jordan end of that scale than the Magic/Bird end, too. As a result, LeBron already looks great by cumulative statistics. He's 15th overall in career win shares, well above Magic and Bird, who played roughly the same amount of minutes but at a lower level. He's also ahead of Hakeem, even though Hakeem played much longer than LeBron. Looking at things that reward a concentrated distribution of value a bit more (as championship odds do), he's 3rd overall in MVP shares, behind only Jordan and Kareem (some bias towards recent players there with deeper ballots, but as the majority of Bron's shares come from 4 near-unanimous MVPs and an unquestioned 2nd-place finish, he didn't gain from them as much as, say, Kevin Durant did). He's also 6th in RPOY shares (behind Russell, Kareem, Jordan, Wilt, and Magic).

In the playoffs, LeBron is a bit behind the most decorated greats with super teams in terms of longevity, but five finals runs will take you pretty far. LeBron has played 6717 playoff minutes. Magic, Wilt, Russell, and Jordan all played around 7500 each (disclaimers about number of rounds obviously apply for the old-timers). Bird is at 6886. Olajuwon, whose playoff performance is perhaps his strongest argument, only played 5749, and Dirk, who similarly is boosted for great playoff performances, only has 5544. In terms of total value accrued in the playoffs, then, LeBron holds up just fine. He's fourth in career playoff win shares, behind only Jordan, Duncan, and Kareem (all the disclaimers about shorter playoffs for old-timers count double here, as the first round is when you get the easiest wins, but still very impressive to be ahead of Shaq and Hakeem here).

I stuck to cumulative metrics above not because they're the best way to evaluate players (they're not), but rather to illustrate that even if we choose the method that is most harmed by a lack of longevity, LeBron can still hold his own. If we look at per-minute and per-possession numbers to look directly at the level of play LeBron is giving you while he's on the court, nobody else can really compete. No matter what aspect you look at, LeBron is as good as anyone.

Box score statistics: averages of 28-7-7 per game on .580 TS% in a very slow era over his last 10 years (excluding only rookie year), with very steady production year-to-year other than steadily increasing shooting efficiency. Four of the top 11 years in WS/48, and Jordan, Kareem, and WIlt have other seven. Four of the top 11 seasons in PER, and again only Jordan, Kareem, and Wilt beat him even once. If you prefer career averages, LeBron is 5th overall in WS/48 (behind only Jordan, Robinson, Wilt, and Paul), and 2nd in PER (behind Jordan, and only by .1 points). Those numbers are boosted by not yet including a decline phase, but LeBron has such a huge lead it's hard to imagine him falling far at all, especially when we see that his peak and prime is so much higher than almost everyone else.

Plus-Minus data: RAPM and similar metrics have all consistently had LeBron as on par with KG and Shaq as the very best players of the era. His peak is as high as anyone, and sustained over many years. Even some multi-year samples that include a lot of pre-prime LeBron and exclude some of his best years (i.e. the 02-11 RAPM on Colts' site) has LeBron as the #1 player of the era, with a 1-point lead over his only challenger in KG and a 3-point lead over Duncan, Kobe, Dirk, Wade, and Nash, even with a sample just about perfect for grabbing their primes and little else. Data from his (rare) missed games in Cleveland and consistently great raw on-off numbers only back this conclusion up. The eye test, while not computationally as powerful as RAPM, can also tell that LeBron's impact would hold up beyond basic stats. He's an excellent passer, and spaces the floor very well (especially when at the four), two of the most important things for +/- data that may slip through the box score. In contrast to someone like Wilt, who was known for chasing stats above all else, LeBron's defining trait might be "making the right play", rejecting the hero-ball narrative and getting his teammates involved, even with the game on the line.

Defense: This is harder to measure than some of the other stuff, and LeBron is obviously not Hakeem/Duncan level here, but he's still one of the great perimeter defenders of all time. By every measure I've seen, whether in the box score, plus-minus data, or popular acclaim, LeBron rates out very well. His size and athleticism make him very versatile, and without that versatility from him (and, to a lesser degree, Wade), I doubt the Heat's trapping style would work at all. I rate LeBron's defense as similar to that of Jordan or of Kareem, Shaq, and the second or third tier of defensive bigs, and it's in that half of the game that he really separates himself from Magic and Bird, average at best players on that end.

Playoff performance: This is one area detractors harp on with narrative-based attacks, but even with a couple hiccups (like everyone has once you've ranked Jordan and Russell), LeBron's performance is as good as anyone's. He won two finals MVPs in very convincing fashion, and was the best individual player in this year's finals, too (admittedly, this was in much less convincing fashion). He's third in career playoff WS/48 and PER, behind only Jordan and Mikan in both cases. I don't have his numbers in elimination games at my fingertips, but I've seen them posted many times, and they are incredible. He might be the all-time leader in PPG in elimination games, or behind only Jordan, if I recall correctly.

Off-court issues: LeBron has been basically a model citizen in this regard. Some fans perceive him as having a large ego and judge him harshly for it, but in terms of building a camaraderie among teammates and a happy environment, LeBron is excellent here. The chemistry in Cleveland and Miami were both clear even to outside observers, and the teams just loved playing together. This isn't a super important category (unless you really screw it up), but there are no concerns here for LeBron. If you're going to hold leaving as a free agent and going to Miami against him, then you better knock Oscar Robertson a long way down your rankings , as he's responsible for enabling decades of such behavior with his lawsuit.

Clutch Performance: Part of this is covered in his playoff performances, and another part is about how he performs in late-game situations. Some fans knocked him for this due to his famously passing up some shots to get teammates wide-open threes on the final possessions of the game. The evidence just doesn't back them up, though. What's crazy is, I want to say they're wrong because "hero ball doesn't work; you should just make the right basketball play and find the open man", but that's not entirely accurate. It's more like "Hero ball doesn't work, unless you have LeBron". League efficiency tends to go down in those scenarios, but LeBron's shown a propensity for incredible clutch performances over the years. 82games has been tracking clutch stats for the past six years, with clutch defined as "4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points". By their numbers, in 08-09 LeBron averaged 55.9 points, 14.3 rebounds, and 12.6 assists per 48 minutes of clutch time, on .556/.421/.85 shooting splits (.693 TS%). Cleveland outscored their opponents by 103 points in 111 minutes of clutch time that year, or +45 per 48 minutes. In 09-10, he averaged 66.1-15.9-8.3-3.2-3.2 per 48, on .488/.340/.80 shooting (.630 TS%). Cleveland outscored their opponents by 116 points over 151 minutes in those situations, or +37 over 48 minutes. After relative down years (by his standards), LeBron picked back up at a pretty great pace in 12-13, when he averaged 38.7-15.2-14.9 per 48, on .442/.280/.76 shooting (.555 TS%). While the individual numbers aren't as crazy, Miami outscored opponents by 125 points over 161 minutes of clutch time with LeBron, or +37 per 48 minutes, and this was a big factor in their 26-game winning streak. They could basically take it easy for much of the game, then turn it on in the second half if they needed to and overcome any deficit they might've accrued. I generally don't believe there's much merit to clutch performances, but this is stuff that just should not be possible. 66 points per 48 on .630 TS% for a slow team in the modern NBA, in the most important time of the game? Outscoring opponents by about three or four times as much per minute as the best season-long marks in NBA history, entirely in game-deciding moments? If anyone tries to tell you LeBron wasn't clutch before coming to Miami, or before the 2012 championship run, they could not be more wrong.

Team Success: While *only* having two titles might put him behind some of these guys, LeBron has led some very successful teams using very different styles. He led a 66-win, 8.68 SRS Cavs team in 2009 that almost always had two bigs on the floor and used their size to their advantage, with basketball-reference saying LeBron was at SF 74% of the time. The team had a +10.0 efficiency differential, which actually increased to +15.0 with LeBron on the floor (compared to -6.2 while he sat, a net difference of 21.2 points). He went to Miami, and peaked there with a 66-win, 7.03 SRS team in 2013. That team was all about surrounding LeBron with shooters and spacing the floor, and used LeBron at PF in 82% of his minutes (and at C in another 9%). Their +8.6 efficiency differential increased to +13.2 with LeBron on the floor, compared to -2.1 when he sat (a net difference of 15.3 points). That's very impressive versatility, leading two entirely different 66-win teams, both as the unquestioned #1 man (and near-unanimous league MVP), and doing it in not only two different roles but at two different positions entirely.

The (relatively) short version:
-By box score metrics like WS/48 and PER, he's get the #1, #2, #3, and #4 best seasons of players not yet on the list (four of the top 11 overall. For his career, he's 2nd in RS PER, and 5th in WS/48. then 3rd in both PER and WS/48 in the playoffs. Unless you're arguing for Mikan, nobody else comes close.

-BY RAPM, he's got three of the top 6 seasons of the 98-14 era (and three of the top-4 post-99, if you're worried about the very first season of that data). In most of the multi-season samples, he finishes #1 overall, even in time frames that seem to favor other players' primes.

-Quite possibly the most complete player ever. His scoring gets kinda forgotten because of all his other skills, but he's third in NBA history in career points per game, and just had back-to-back seasons of >30% USG and >.640 TS%. Purely as a volume scorer, he's one of the greatest in NBA history. You can say the same thing about other facets of his game, though. He's top-25 in AST%, ranking first among non-PGs. His court vision is truly incredible, and I'd argue that he's the best non-PG passer ever (Bird and Manu would have an argument, but they seem to have a bit more flash and a bit less pure effectiveness. And you could say make a similar argument for his defense, where he has unmatched versatility, and where he ranks even with the Pippens and the Jordans as one of the best perimeter defenders ever.

-Dominated the NBA as the clear-cut best player for longer than anyone except Jordan and Kareem. Since 09, LeBron has resided in a unique position so far above the rest of the league as to have virtually no challengers who can lay an honest claim to being better than him; a position most all-time greats are lucky to hold for a year or two. And it's not like he hasn't had challengers, either. 2009 featured peak Wade averaging 30-5-7.5 with 2.2 steals and 1.3 blocks, all on .574 TS%. It featured Chris Paul putting up a 30.0 PER and .292 WS/48, both of which rank as the #1 seasons of all time among PGs. It featured Kobe in his prime leading the Lakers to an incredibly dominant season. If only those players were around, it would not have been a down year for the MVP. And yet not only did LeBron beat them all for MVP, he won with 97% of the vote, one of the top 10 margins ever. 2013 was a similar story. Kevin Durant put up 28 ppg on a .647 TS% and would've been a very deserving MVP. Yet LeBron so completely outplayed him as to win the MVP with a record 99.8% of the vote.

That's the big-picture difference between LeBron and the other contenders here. Magic and Bird traded off MVPs, then faded a bit when Jordan came in. Hakeem didn't even separate himself from Robinson, Malone, Barkley, and Ewing except for in the playoffs in his best couple years. Garnett was seen as even at best with Duncan, and often closer to DIrk and Kobe instead. LeBron came in against similarly elite competition, and left no doubt about who was better.

[therealbig3]

However, I don't think I'm gonna take either player at this spot. I'm strongly considering either Hakeem or Garnett at this spot.

What does Garnett have over Hakeem?

I'm more impressed by Garnett's defense from just the sheer intelligence he displays, combined with his incredible physical gifts. ElGee made a pretty great post about this, how even Hakeem isn't his equal in terms of "horizontal" defense (lateral quickness, mobility, timing, rotations, diagnosing plays, recovery, angles, etc). As a result, I think Garnett is a slightly better defender, and imo, the best defensive player since Russell...I understand if people don't agree, however.

Also, I think Hakeem was the better player, prime vs prime. Even if Garnett was the better defender (not a given), Hakeem is better offensively, and that's a bigger difference.

I give Garnett an edge with regards to longevity though, but not really a big one. I'm probably going to pick Hakeem. Better player, close enough longevity.

I personally have Hakeem at #4...if it wasn't for Shaq not being off the board for the last few threads, I would have voted for him a while ago.

[trex_8063]

My vote: Lebron James.

imo, Lebron’s peak is top 5 ever. Though I’d rate it marginally behind Shaq’s peak, what adds to the impressiveness of Lebron’s peak is that people can’t even agree on when his was (see this recent thread as proof: viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1330624). Some people think is was ‘13, some people think it was ‘12, and yet others think his best year was ‘09. Why does that make it more impressive? Because it means he had THREE separate years where he was playing at approximately similar (again: top 5 all-time) peak level. Compare that to Shaq or KG, for examples, for whom there is literally no debate at all as to where their respective peaks were, because they both have a pretty apparent and steep taper on either side of it.

Take a look at the AVERAGE of those three seasons for Lebron:
PER 31.4……AVERAGE over three seasons! The only players for whom you can find a combination of any three seasons that average to a PER of 31.4 or higher are Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain. Period. In fact, Jordan and Chamberlain are the only other players who have even had a SINGLE season as high as 31.4.

And frankly, ‘10 Lebron isn’t far behind those seasons-->PER of 31.1, giving him a 31.3 PER over four non-consecutive seasons. The only other player with a 4-season combo of >/= 31.3 PER is Michael Jordan.

His combined playoff PER for ‘09, ‘12, ‘13--->31.1. The ONLY other player in NBA history who has a playoff PER of 31.1 or higher over any three (potentially non-consecutive) seasons is Michael Jordan. Shaq is the only other guy who even has a three-season combo playoff PER >30, fwiw.

Now obviously PER loves Lebron’s efficiency (because it favors efficient scoring). But even prior to the hyper-elite shooting efficiency of the last couple seasons, his production was on a super-elite level, just by way of sheer volume. Let's use a simplistic method that ignores shooting efficiency: just per 100 stats, pts+reb+ast+stl+blk-to`s……

Lebron's best season by this method is '09: 61.8.

Comparing a few other top tier stars by this method…..
*Shaquille O'Neal's best ('00) is just shy at 61.4
*Kevin Garnett's best ('04) is 60.5.
*Michael Jordan's best ('93) is 60.2 (he also had three seasons----`87, `90 and `91---at 60.1 each).
*Karl Malone's best ('97) is 59.7.
*Dwyane Wade's best ('09) is 59.2.
*Hakeem Olajuwon's ('93) is 58.6.
*Tim Duncan's best ('05, surprisingly; though should be noted this was the first year he began playing somewhat reduced minutes) is 57.5.
*Tracy McGrady's best ('03) is 57.5
*Kobe Bryant's best ('06) is 57.1
*Kevin Durant's best ('14) is 56.7.
*Kareem's best (pre-1973 data unavailable) is perhaps '77 at 59.6 (NOT counting TO`s, though, which were not yet recorded).
*Charles Barkley's best ('91) is 55.2
*Larry Bird's best ('85) is 54.5.
*Magic's best ('87) is 53.1.

In short, Lebron’s best season by this method (which ignores the efficiency that inflates his PER) is THE BEST SEASON ON RECORD for which we have per 100 data. Though if we wanted to also take a look at efficiency…….
Lebron in this ‘09 season ALSO had a higher TS% than ‘00 Shaq, ‘04 Kevin Garnett, ‘87 and ‘93 Jordan, ‘09 Dwyane Wade, ‘93 Hakeem Olajuwon, ‘05 Tim Duncan, '03 Tracy McGrady, ‘06 Kobe Bryant, and ‘85 Larry Bird.

Given his extraordinarily high (and broad) peak, two-way impact, consistency and durability thus far…...I’d rate his prime equal or better vs. anyone (except perhaps Jordan).

Aside from the unusually large number of “peak-level” seasons, his durability helps make up for any lesser longevity in a prime-vs.-prime comparison with some other players he’s in contention with for this spot (a disadvantage which exists only because his prime is still in progress).
Take a comparison with Shaq, for instance:
If we were to call Shaq’s prime ‘94 thru ‘05 (12 seasons).....Shaq played 801 rs games in that span.
If we’re that liberal about Shaq’s prime, I think we’d fairly have to call Lebron’s prime ‘05 thru present: 10 seasons, but 763 rs games. So in games played, Lebron’s prime is basically just half of a season behind Shaq already.

Once he's played his career out (such that longevity no longer counts against him), I think his ATL ceiling is indeed very very VERY high.

Because Shaq had several more non-prime---but still effective---seasons gives him a significant longevity argument over Lebron, which made #6 a difficult decision for me. But with Shaq out of the way......

Against guys like Magic or Bird, longevity is essentially a non-argument already: he's played 842 rs games (despite 16 missed in a player hold-out). Magic played 906, and Bird 897…….so he's less than one full season away from over-taking them both.

And RAPM data will only tend to inflate his status even further.
shutupandjam's Off/Def combined RAPM (and league rank) for Lebron from '06-'13:
'06--->4.7 (7th)
'07--->7.3 (2nd)
'08--->6.2 (5th)
'09--->8.1 (1st)
'10--->9.6 (1st)
'11--->7.0 (3rd)
'12--->7.8 (2nd)
'13--->8.0 (1st)

From espn.com
'14--->9.19 (1st)

stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com data (which admittedly I'm a bit skeptical of, as I think it's partially boxscore based, and often seems to favor defensive bigs [shot-blockers], but anyway....just for an additional source):
'06--->6.3 (9th)
'07--->7.4 (3rd)
'08--->8.2 (2nd)
'09--->11.3 (1st [handily])
'10--->11.9 (1st [handily])
'11--->8.1 (2nd)
'12--->9.5 (1st)
'13--->10.1 (1st)
'14--->7.9 (1st)

We don't have RAPM data on Magic, obviously. Assuming his defensive +/- is 0 or neutral (which is probably fair), he'd annually have to have an offensive impact of approx +7-9.5 (by shutupandjam's data) or +8-12 (by stats-for-the-nba....) to even compete with Lebron's overall impact each year.
For reference, the HIGHEST offensive +/- Steve Nash EVER achieved was 7.9 according to shutupandjam, and 8.6 according to stats-for-the-nba.appspot.

Also:

LeBron's got four seasons that rank among the best over, '14 isn't far behind, '11 is underrated, and he has a handful of high quality seasons before '09. He's got enough longevity now to match up against Magic and Bird.

Totally.....
RS:
26.7/7.5/7.0 on .594 TS%
116 ORtg, 102 DRtg
27.3 PER, .244 WS/48 on 38.8 mpg; leads league in both OWS and total WS, is either 2nd or 3rd in league in RAPM (depending on source), although should be noted he played more possessions than the person(s) ranked ahead of him, due to his high mpg.
In playoffs:
23.7/8.4/5.9/1.7/1.2 on .563 TS% and only 3.1 topg
113 ORtg, 102 DRtg
PER 23.7, .198 WS/48 on a whopping 43.9 mpg; leads league in playoff DWS and total playoff WS.......

.......and people talk as though he was hot dog s*** that year. I mean how good are you? that fans and media can crucify you for this? that these kinds of numbers can be called an "off year"?

[Jim Naismith]

Magic and Bird traded off MVPs, then faded a bit when Jordan came in.

Actually, Bird's last MVP came before Magic's first, so there is no alternation as you imply.

In fact, Bird is the only three-peat MVP winner since the sixties. Neither Jordan nor Magic three-peated.

The only other three-peat MVP winners in NBA history are Wilt and Russell.