Early Top 8 in the East projections.

[Kurosawa0]

Part of me really wonders about Indiana. I have them making the playoffs, but you have to figure on Cleveland, Chicago, Miami and Washington as being near-locks to make the playoffs.

So that would leave 4 spots for the remaining teams... Indy, Toronto, Brooklyn, New York, Detroit, Atlanta and Charlotte. I think we're looking at 11 teams in the East that are going to have a shot at making the playoffs, at least starting the season. 4 teams that should definitely be in and 7 more that could go either way.

It seems crazy, but Indy does have give me a vibe as a team with a potential disastrous season. As flawed as Lance Stephenson is, he was Indy's best creator on offense. Now you take him away and a bad offensive team has gotten even worse.

This could be a year where Hibbert doesn't return to form, they get nothing from the guard spots at all and its left for Paul George to try to be the hero. That may not be enough. I'm not saying its going to happen, but the recipe is there.

[ecksplicit]

Including divisions:

1. Cleveland (Central)
2. Chicago
3. Washington (Southeast)
4. Toronto (Atlantic)
5. Miami
6. Indiana
7. Atlanta
8. Charlotte

[Trader_Joe]

I see you can talk BRK basketball all day. I think BRK did good in the Jack trade and Hollins replacing Kidd might just stabilize the locker room in BRK. Who do you project as the team's starting SF? Kirilenko or Bogdanovic?

WAS will be interesting to watch out of the gates. They could be a dangerous team. They need Nene to be healthy for 70+ games and the playoffs. He makes that team tick.

Ha.. yes I can, and sometime do.

I think AK or AA will be starting next to JJ.
Bogdanovic is a rookie who I doubt Hollins will start from day 1, plus we need defense in the starting 5 and I'm sure Bogdanovic will struggle there, especially at first. Anderson might be the best choice since he allows JJ to play SF where he was better last season. He could play the Tony Allen role that Hollins had in Memphis. AK wouldn't be a bad choice either and would allow Teletovic to start at PF.

I think the more interesting question is who starts at PF. Right now there are rumors they grooming Mason Plumlee to take that spot. It makes some sense. Lopez had his best season ever, and the team their best season in a decade or more with Evans playing PF. Plumlee is a much smarter, better player than Evans, but both are offensively limited. However Plumlee can finish inside, has a baby hook, can hit 70%+ from the line and could be the ultimate garbage man thriving off the attention Brook would be getting. Defensively, Plumlee is quick enough to guard PFs and they would have major size with the 7'1" (listed as 7'0.5" with shoes from the combine) and the 7'2" Lopez (he has definitely grown a couple inches since he entered the league and Quinn Buchner the color commentator for Indy once called Brook "every bit as big" as Hibbert when they were matched up). Also assuming Lopez is healthy and KG looking exclusively like a C these days, I don't want Mason buried at C on the depth chart.

But, Mirza Teletovic might also be an option to start. He came on big time last year on both offense and defense. He showed he belonged in this league as a stretch 4 with range out to half court practically. The main concern would be rebounding next to Lopez, so if he starts, I think AK needs to be at SF. However, the thing with Lopez, he's very good at boxing out (and getting contested rebounds.. his % was on par with the likes of Noah and Jonas V. last year at 42%), so if there is someone there that can anticipate and swoop in for the rebound, the Nets should be fine there.

I liked the Jack trade a lot.. Thornton was an expiring chucker with no future with the team. Jack was a target of their even last season even with Livingston there, so they've liked Jack for some time and they've loved Karasev since last year's draft where they tried hard to trade up for him. I don't expect much from Karasev next season, but he's in a good environment to learn slowly.

I also liked the Hollins hiring, though I would have preferred that the whole Kidd fiasco never happened and he was still there. But I think the roster is better for Hollins based upon his success in Memphis. He likes to play a grind it out, pound the paint kind of game. I really think he will work well with Brook assuming he is healthy. M.Gasol was a big, slow, plodding C who didn't have a defensive reputation until Hollins built him up. I don't think Lopez will ever be the defender Gasol is, but he's got some great tools to work with including a monstrous reach, shot blocking skills and he was leading the league in opponent FG% at 40% before going down.

So far, I give their off-season a C.

I've liked every move other than the Kidd fiasco (he's going to be a very good coach in this league) and letting Pierce walk for nothing. They claim they decided he wasn't worth the $20m he would have cost in salary and tax, especially after seeing him not being that effective at SF and privately conceding that the team is not a contender and that the trade was a mistake. However, I think it was worth one more go with last year's team (especially with Miami disbanded) and even if things weren't looking good, they probably could have moved him at the deadline for salary relief to a team with a TE like a Houston or Washington.I don't think PP will be a major loss, but it will be felt at times. One thing to keep in mind.. I've heard KG is on a mission this year, knowing this is his final year, and is working out hard already. If KG at all bounces back or can at least play as well as he did when he was moved to C the entire year, that will be big for the Nets.

[qm22]

"Every analyst picked the Wizards"

In fairness a lot of those pundits don't qualify as having remotely reliable analysis or rudimentary basketball knowledge.

Not that I'm arguing about this point, but I tend to remember when they did live picks of the playoff brackets a lot of people argued for the Wizards so maybe that is what he thought. Anyway, every basketball website has some variation in their picks and ESPN doesn't hold any special authority.

I really dont know what your talking about, everyone picked the bulls.
Heres Yahoo Sports for more variety if you please

Every single person picked the bulls. Not expert enough for you still?
More predictions:
SBNation.com: All but Amin pick the Bulls. I have Bulls in 7. Full site predictions tomorrow.

ESPN Experts: All pick Bulls except Michael Wallace.

ESPN Insider: Two Bulls in 6 picks.

NBA.com: Not a prediction, but an amazing Andre Miller stat in here from John Schuhmann.

CBS Sports: Bulls in 6.

ESPN 5 on 5: Bulls in 6 (four people), Wizards in 6 (Kyle Weidie).

Ball Don't Lie: Bulls in 6.

Sports Illustrated: Bulls in 7.

The Starters, NBATV: Bulls in 7 (Tas), Bulls in 7 (Leigh), Wizards in 6 (Skeets).

NBC Sports' Pro Basketball Talk: Bulls in 6.
The only person that picked the wizards was Bill simmons and Skeets to be honest

I'm not really arguing at all, I'm sure you are right. What I was referring to was watching live TV and seeing people pick Wizards (not internet articles).

[nuposse04]

Can't really argue with most of that and the fact that you took the time over tv is a win. Although it looks like you did not rank the teams in playoff format, the commentary is appreciated. I don't think WAS is better with Pierce after losing Ariza, considering the place of time in their careers. Nonetheless, they did go out and sign a SF to replace Ariza, rather than allow Porter to come in immaturely. Most importantly for WAS is, can Nene stay healthy as last season? Because they need him for 70+ games to reach their win potential.

Indiana is the team in question for the upcoming season. They were so good for a long stretch last season and then turmoil from within destroyed them. And I don't know if they have gotten over that or if perhaps they have regrouped and have found strength from within the group. If there is still that lingering doubt, Indiana could struggle as we saw last season. And now they are a talented shooting guard short.

The East will have more competition at the top or perhaps they just middled out. CHI and CLE probably have caught TOR and MIA and IND may still be better than TOR, but not much separates that group of 5 teams. WAS, CHA and BRK fill out the playoff teams - with ATL fighting to grab the 8th seed the last week of the season over BRK.

This is nonsense...well sort of. Losing Ariza DOES hurt us, for a month. Webster, when he started and played with Wall was an adequate SF and will get there by Decemberish if Porter and GR JR don't show partial returns from their summer league play (while doing well in SL is cool, I don't fully expect that kind of showing in the RS). Pierce is also a decent stop gap. We also upgraded Booker with Humphries and are about to upgrade Seraphin via Blair.

Also, we went 18-10 with Miller...having a competent backup PG will help us immensely and will keep Wall fresher. Beal also upped his game in the playoffs so I think it is reasonable to expect an improved Beal this upcoming season. Wall, Beal and Porter should all improve. Gortat, when featured in the offense, post all star break was putting up 17-12 per 36. We also had a winning record sans Nene I believe post all star break. I expect an improved regular season team, and much more potent playoff team.

Hey, WAS is a dangerous team. I was not trying to downgrade them as a whole, I was referring to losing Trevor Ariza who had an amazing season and was a huge part of the team's success. Most significantly on the defensive side of the ball, he is a stopper.
The additions of Humphries and Blair in the past 24 hours have given WAS more depth in their front court. I'm not sure Drew Gooden is happy about the Blair trade, although the team has been upgraded. And it looks like they have protected themselves well in the case of injury. Salute you WAS.
The East is wide open and WAS is right there.

I don't think you intended to bash us, I just want to point out what I think is wrong about your analysis

I think defensively we'll miss Ariza, but the additions+expected gains from Wall+Beal+porter (and even GR JR who is a beast so far) should stave off the loss, while making us better. Wall can make a superior 3 pt shooter out of a lot of guys.

[Benedict_Boozer]

Washington is making some moves - I think they can compete for the top seed next year.

[dobrojim]

they've (WAS) gone from having really poor frontcourt depth to having
really good frontcourt depth.

If Porter steps up at all and can play 20+ mpg, they look pretty formidable.
As long as Wall doesn't get hurt. He remains the straw that stirs the drink.

[PaulieWal]

People are going overboard acting like Indiana & Miami will be so bad.. Indy was already the 2nd best team in the east before Lance had his breakout. He won't make or break them. Could easily see them having the 1 seed still.. Miami lost Lebron & that's huge of course.. But they replaced him with Deng, added McRoberts & Granger.. Wade should play alot more this season, could be a good or bad thing. either way I don't see them falling out of the top 4.

Miami's losing LBJ, James Jones, Ray Allen, Shane Battier, Rashard Lewis.
Those are some big losses.

The McRoberts signing was decent for the money, but I'm not sure he's even an average starting PF in the league while Granger has looked done for a couple years now. Deng didn't look very good in Cleveland last year and his numbers have been on the decline for some time now. They are going to be relying on Wade a lot more which is not a good thing necessarily. Bosh is going to have to carry this team.

I don't see them better than CLE, CHI, IND, WAS, TOR at minimum.

The biggest loss is LeBron and Allen to an extent but Battier was done midway through the season, Lewis didn't get consistent minutes until the playoffs (McRoberts will be an upgrade over him), and JJ was an end of the bench guy. I think Miami will be a 4-6 seed.

[Trader_Joe]

People are going overboard acting like Indiana & Miami will be so bad.. Indy was already the 2nd best team in the east before Lance had his breakout. He won't make or break them. Could easily see them having the 1 seed still.. Miami lost Lebron & that's huge of course.. But they replaced him with Deng, added McRoberts & Granger.. Wade should play alot more this season, could be a good or bad thing. either way I don't see them falling out of the top 4.

Miami's losing LBJ, James Jones, Ray Allen, Shane Battier, Rashard Lewis.
Those are some big losses.

The McRoberts signing was decent for the money, but I'm not sure he's even an average starting PF in the league while Granger has looked done for a couple years now. Deng didn't look very good in Cleveland last year and his numbers have been on the decline for some time now. They are going to be relying on Wade a lot more which is not a good thing necessarily. Bosh is going to have to carry this team.

I don't see them better than CLE, CHI, IND, WAS, TOR at minimum.

The biggest loss is LeBron and Allen to an extent but Battier was done midway through the season, Lewis didn't get consistent minutes until the playoffs (McRoberts will be an upgrade over him), and JJ was an end of the bench guy. I think Miami will be a 4-6 seed.

One thing Miami had going for them was chemistry and synergy. Those guys were there a while for the most part and liked playing with each other. They made each other better and why guys like Lewis could still even play. I'm not sure how easy it will be to replace those type of players or specifically the impact LBJ had on them and his ability to make those around him better.

Look how badly Cleveland fell without him. They went from a 61 win team to a 19 win team overnight and LBJ wasn't the player he was now. I don't think Miami will fall off that dramatically, but I think they will have a sizable drop off.

[JDRochholz]

This again with the Bulls? It's going to start this early eh.

stop looking at the summer league roster.

[PaulieWal]

Miami's losing LBJ, James Jones, Ray Allen, Shane Battier, Rashard Lewis.
Those are some big losses.

The McRoberts signing was decent for the money, but I'm not sure he's even an average starting PF in the league while Granger has looked done for a couple years now. Deng didn't look very good in Cleveland last year and his numbers have been on the decline for some time now. They are going to be relying on Wade a lot more which is not a good thing necessarily. Bosh is going to have to carry this team.

I don't see them better than CLE, CHI, IND, WAS, TOR at minimum.

The biggest loss is LeBron and Allen to an extent but Battier was done midway through the season, Lewis didn't get consistent minutes until the playoffs (McRoberts will be an upgrade over him), and JJ was an end of the bench guy. I think Miami will be a 4-6 seed.

One thing Miami had going for them was chemistry and synergy. Those guys were there a while for the most part and liked playing with each other. They made each other better and why guys like Lewis could still even play. I'm not sure how easy it will be to replace those type of players or specifically the impact LBJ had on them and his ability to make those around him better.

Look how badly Cleveland fell without him. They went from a 61 win team to a 19 win team overnight and LBJ wasn't the player he was now. I don't think Miami will fall off that dramatically, but I think they will have a sizable drop off.

No doubt they will. You can't replace the best player in the world but Wade and Bosh will get a lot more touches. They will be less efficient but their raw numbers will also go up. A lot of it matters on the health of Wade. If Wade is relatively healthy the Heat will be 4-6 seed, if Wade is not healthy, it will be tough for Miami.

[Trader_Joe]

The biggest loss is LeBron and Allen to an extent but Battier was done midway through the season, Lewis didn't get consistent minutes until the playoffs (McRoberts will be an upgrade over him), and JJ was an end of the bench guy. I think Miami will be a 4-6 seed.

One thing Miami had going for them was chemistry and synergy. Those guys were there a while for the most part and liked playing with each other. They made each other better and why guys like Lewis could still even play. I'm not sure how easy it will be to replace those type of players or specifically the impact LBJ had on them and his ability to make those around him better.

Look how badly Cleveland fell without him. They went from a 61 win team to a 19 win team overnight and LBJ wasn't the player he was now. I don't think Miami will fall off that dramatically, but I think they will have a sizable drop off.

No doubt they will. You can't replace the best player in the world but Wade and Bosh will get a lot more touches. They will be less efficient but their raw numbers will also go up. A lot of it matters on the health of Wade. If Wade is relatively healthy the Heat will be 4-6 seed, if Wade is not healthy, it will be tough for Miami.

Has LBJ missed time since 2010?
Do we know Miami's record in games he missed?

And while I'm not one of those people completely buying into the Wade is done thing, I don't think he's the player he once was and able to carry teams like he might have to.

[dobrojim]

but what are the chances Wade can increase both mpg and games played
without there being serious repercussions. Having LBJ allowed them to
pace their Wade usage over the season. That luxury is now kaput.

Bosh now has a tremendous load to carry.

[PaulieWal]

One thing Miami had going for them was chemistry and synergy. Those guys were there a while for the most part and liked playing with each other. They made each other better and why guys like Lewis could still even play. I'm not sure how easy it will be to replace those type of players or specifically the impact LBJ had on them and his ability to make those around him better.

Look how badly Cleveland fell without him. They went from a 61 win team to a 19 win team overnight and LBJ wasn't the player he was now. I don't think Miami will fall off that dramatically, but I think they will have a sizable drop off.

No doubt they will. You can't replace the best player in the world but Wade and Bosh will get a lot more touches. They will be less efficient but their raw numbers will also go up. A lot of it matters on the health of Wade. If Wade is relatively healthy the Heat will be 4-6 seed, if Wade is not healthy, it will be tough for Miami.

Has LBJ missed time since 2010?
Do we know Miami's record in games he missed?

And while I'm not one of those people completely buying into the Wade is done thing, I don't think he's the player he once was and able to carry teams like he might have to.

He only missed 17 RS games since 2010 or something like that. I don't have Miami's record in those games but it's an extremely small sample regardless. And yeah, Wade isn't going to be Wade of the old but we just need him to be a reliable 2nd option. I think Bosh is going to be the 1st option and carry more of the offensive load. The thing is that Miami is still a decent team. Bosh, Wade, Deng, McBob, Chalmers, Birdman, Granger, Napier, Ennis is going to be a middle of the pack team in the Eastern Conf. Neither Bosh in Toronto had a decent team like this around him nor did Wade after Shaq got traded and before LeBron/Bosh got there.

[They_Them_Hatin]

1. Cavs
2. Bulls
3. Wiz
4.Hornets
5. Indy
6. Heat
7. Raps
8. Hawks

[INKtastic]

Stopped reading after I saw the Bobcats mentioned 3 times. That isn't our name. Keep up with things.

Says the guy with the bobcat logo in his sig

What's wrong with having a Bobcat logo? They aint Bobcats no more!

that's the point. Liver_Pooty complained about people calling Charlotte the bobcats, yet has this in his sig



seemed like a pot and kettle post to me

[Trader_Joe]

No doubt they will. You can't replace the best player in the world but Wade and Bosh will get a lot more touches. They will be less efficient but their raw numbers will also go up. A lot of it matters on the health of Wade. If Wade is relatively healthy the Heat will be 4-6 seed, if Wade is not healthy, it will be tough for Miami.

Has LBJ missed time since 2010?
Do we know Miami's record in games he missed?

And while I'm not one of those people completely buying into the Wade is done thing, I don't think he's the player he once was and able to carry teams like he might have to.

He only missed 17 RS games since 2010 or something like that. I don't have Miami's record in those games but it's an extremely small sample regardless. And yeah, Wade isn't going to be Wade of the old but we just need him to be a reliable 2nd option. I think Bosh is going to be the 1st option and carry more of the offensive load. The thing is that Miami is still a decent team. Bosh, Wade, Deng, McBob, Chalmers, Birdman, Granger, Napier, Ennis is going to be a middle of the pack team in the Eastern Conf. Neither Bosh in Toronto had a decent team like this around him nor did Wade after Shaq got traded and before LeBron/Bosh got there.

Yeah that is too small to deduce anything.

But, I do think Cleveland going from 61 wins to 19 wins with a lesser version of Lebron is telling.
The East looks better on paper and you see them dropping by what..10 wins? (54 to 44?)

[loflin3hree5ive]

1. Raptors
2. Bulls
3. Heat
4. Cavs
5. Hornets
6. Wizards
7. Hawks
8. Knicks

Pacers miss the playoffs

Here's an And1 for showin some love but do u really believe the Raptors will be 1st seed???

They could easily sweep their division
Their young players will have matured a year
Re-signed their key guys
Got Lou WIlliams for nothing
Less question marks & arguably more chemistry than CLE, MIA & CHI

I'm not saying they'll be playing in the Finals, but I could see them winning 55 games next season, which should be good for #1.

[cdouglas]

This is nonsense...well sort of. Losing Ariza DOES hurt us, for a month. Webster, when he started and played with Wall was an adequate SF and will get there by Decemberish if Porter and GR JR don't show partial returns from their summer league play (while doing well in SL is cool, I don't fully expect that kind of showing in the RS). Pierce is also a decent stop gap. We also upgraded Booker with Humphries and are about to upgrade Seraphin via Blair.

Also, we went 18-10 with Miller...having a competent backup PG will help us immensely and will keep Wall fresher. Beal also upped his game in the playoffs so I think it is reasonable to expect an improved Beal this upcoming season. Wall, Beal and Porter should all improve. Gortat, when featured in the offense, post all star break was putting up 17-12 per 36. We also had a winning record sans Nene I believe post all star break. I expect an improved regular season team, and much more potent playoff team.

Hey, WAS is a dangerous team. I was not trying to downgrade them as a whole, I was referring to losing Trevor Ariza who had an amazing season and was a huge part of the team's success. Most significantly on the defensive side of the ball, he is a stopper.
The additions of Humphries and Blair in the past 24 hours have given WAS more depth in their front court. I'm not sure Drew Gooden is happy about the Blair trade, although the team has been upgraded. And it looks like they have protected themselves well in the case of injury. Salute you WAS.
The East is wide open and WAS is right there.

I don't think you intended to bash us, I just want to point out what I think is wrong about your analysis

I think defensively we'll miss Ariza, but the additions+expected gains from Wall+Beal+porter (and even GR JR who is a beast so far) should stave off the loss, while making us better. Wall can make a superior 3 pt shooter out of a lot of guys.

Has anyone considered why Ariza's game improved since he's been in DC? This system could work for Pierce and his game could revert back to how he played in Boston. I don't think it's fair to judge his game until we see how he plays alongside Wall and Beal and then let's compare who's the best with this team.

[PaulieWal]

Yeah that is too small to deduce anything.

But, I do think Cleveland going from 61 wins to 19 wins with a lesser version of Lebron is telling.
The East looks better on paper and you see them dropping by what..10 wins? (54 to 44?)

Yeah, but Cleveland had nobody close to the talent level of a Wade or Bosh or even Deng. It is telling, of course but this Miami team is definitely a lot more talented. Depending upon the health of Wade I can see them winning anywhere from 40-50+ games. Also depends on how quickly Bosh is able to go to a 20/10 mentality. I actually see them being the Nets of last year somewhat.