The Marvin Gaye Williams Thread

[Elden Payton]

McRoberts' career 3-point percentage is 34% to Williams' 33%

McRoberts' average 7.5 rebounds per 36 minutes to Williams' 6.3 rebounds

McRoberts' career defensive rating is 106 to Williams' 109

I know it may be close, but I see a advantage as a advantage

It's all semantics between us at this point where it's just a matter of how we view it

That's fine. My point is that Marvin Williams is not a significant step down in any of those areas. If you are pointing to (1) a 0.7% difference in their career 3PT%, (2) non-pace adjusted career rebounding numbers on a per 36 minute basis (I already showed how their true rebounding percentage is a wash), and (3) defensive stats that in part result from the dramatically different levels of team defense to dispute that claim, then I think you are being disingenuous.

The original reaction was "OMG Marvin Williams sucks, this is an absurd overpay!" Upon my further review, it's looking like a pretty reasonable calculated move. If you think McRoberts was worth 4 years at $5.5M, then given the make up of our team you should not have a huge problem with Marvin for 2 years at $7M.

Excellent post, McBob got 5.8m longterm, it wasn't the money that is the knock on that deal, it's the length.

[mrknowitall215]

Sorry, 54 percent which is still horrific.

Aye, I never stated that McRoberts was a good defender, but he was serviceable, and better than Marvin Williams overall at it

And Zeller is going to be a better defender than both of them.

You won't see me attacking Zeller on the defensive end around here. All of my critique mostly revolve around his offensive game, from his inability to shoot from range like the 'stretch 4' I was falsely sold on him to be to his inability to finish at the rim against length (in which most of the NBA has length)

[mrknowitall215]

McRoberts' career 3-point percentage is 34% to Williams' 33%

McRoberts' average 7.5 rebounds per 36 minutes to Williams' 6.3 rebounds

McRoberts' career defensive rating is 106 to Williams' 109

I know it may be close, but I see a advantage as a advantage

It's all semantics between us at this point where it's just a matter of how we view it

That's fine. My point is that Marvin Williams is not a significant step down in any of those areas. If you are pointing to (1) a 0.7% difference in their career 3PT%, (2) non-pace adjusted career rebounding numbers on a per 36 minute basis (I already showed how their true rebounding percentage is a wash), and (3) defensive stats that in part result from the dramatically different levels of team defense to dispute that claim, then I think you are being disingenuous.

The original reaction was "OMG Marvin Williams sucks, this is an absurd overpay!" Upon my further review, it's looking like a pretty reasonable calculated move. If you think McRoberts was worth 4 years at $5.5M, then given the make up of our team you should not have a huge problem with Marvin for 2 years at $7M.

If McRoberts wasn't such a good passer with such a impressive assist-to-turnover ratio, and that's before mentioning his accord chemistry with our team, I'd probably say that he suck too just like Marvin Williams does

Let's be honest, take away McRoberts' ability to pass and he's not starting over Zeller last year

[Liver_Pooty]

Aye, I never stated that McRoberts was a good defender, but he was serviceable, and better than Marvin Williams overall at it

And Zeller is going to be a better defender than both of them.

You won't see me attacking Zeller on the defensive end around here. All of my critique mostly revolve around his offensive game, from his inability to shoot from range like the 'stretch 4' I was falsely sold on him to be to his inability to finish at the rim against length (in which most of the NBA has length)

Well hes been forced to be a center in SL, so we will have to wait for the pre season for all that. Im sure hes made plenty of progress on his shot (cant get worse) and hes been in the gym everyday working on it. He may just surprise a ton of people, or may just disappoint. Zeller right now is the wildcard for our upcoming season in my opinion. The front office has a ton of faith in him to let McRoberts go.

[yosemiteben]

McRoberts' career 3-point percentage is 34% to Williams' 33%

McRoberts' average 7.5 rebounds per 36 minutes to Williams' 6.3 rebounds

McRoberts' career defensive rating is 106 to Williams' 109

I know it may be close, but I see a advantage as a advantage

It's all semantics between us at this point where it's just a matter of how we view it

That's fine. My point is that Marvin Williams is not a significant step down in any of those areas. If you are pointing to (1) a 0.7% difference in their career 3PT%, (2) non-pace adjusted career rebounding numbers on a per 36 minute basis (I already showed how their true rebounding percentage is a wash), and (3) defensive stats that in part result from the dramatically different levels of team defense to dispute that claim, then I think you are being disingenuous.

The original reaction was "OMG Marvin Williams sucks, this is an absurd overpay!" Upon my further review, it's looking like a pretty reasonable calculated move. If you think McRoberts was worth 4 years at $5.5M, then given the make up of our team you should not have a huge problem with Marvin for 2 years at $7M.

If McRoberts wasn't such a good passer with such a impressive assist-to-turnover ratio, and that's before mentioning his accord chemistry with our team, I'd probably say that he suck too just like Marvin Williams does

Let's be honest, take away McRoberts' ability to pass and he's not starting over Zeller last year

Hmmm, he still had the perimeter shot that was helpful and I think it was pretty easy to have good chemistry with this team, but that's a very fair point.

[mrknowitall215]

That's fine. My point is that Marvin Williams is not a significant step down in any of those areas. If you are pointing to (1) a 0.7% difference in their career 3PT%, (2) non-pace adjusted career rebounding numbers on a per 36 minute basis (I already showed how their true rebounding percentage is a wash), and (3) defensive stats that in part result from the dramatically different levels of team defense to dispute that claim, then I think you are being disingenuous.

The original reaction was "OMG Marvin Williams sucks, this is an absurd overpay!" Upon my further review, it's looking like a pretty reasonable calculated move. If you think McRoberts was worth 4 years at $5.5M, then given the make up of our team you should not have a huge problem with Marvin for 2 years at $7M.

If McRoberts wasn't such a good passer with such a impressive assist-to-turnover ratio, and that's before mentioning his accord chemistry with our team, I'd probably say that he suck too just like Marvin Williams does

Let's be honest, take away McRoberts' ability to pass and he's not starting over Zeller last year

Hmmm, he still had the perimeter shot that was helpful and I think it was pretty easy to have good chemistry with this team, but that's a very fair point.

McRoberts' perimeter shot only seemed to show up maybe once every 10 games. Get ready to see the same thing from Williams, minus the consistent 4-5 assist per game, and that's where the disappointment will set in

[yosemiteben]

Those assists are going to come from Lance. McRoberts's assist numbers were going to drop regardless.

[Liver_Pooty]

I think alot of you are going to be amazed how how McRoberts plays as the 4th, potentially 5th fiddle in Miami. He had a massive role here, and fit perfectly. With this current Miami squad? Not so much. If Chris Bosh who is far better than McRoberts can be relegated to a spot up shooter role just imagine what will happen with him.
Josh got a nice payday, and I am happy for him, but we will all soon see what happens to him in Miami. I wouldn't be surprised if Haslem resigns there cheap and starts over McRoberts.

[BigSlam]

McRoberts' career 3-point percentage is 34% to Williams' 33%

McRoberts' average 7.5 rebounds per 36 minutes to Williams' 6.3 rebounds

McRoberts' career defensive rating is 106 to Williams' 109

I know it may be close, but I see a advantage as a advantage

It's all semantics between us at this point where it's just a matter of how we view it

That's fine. My point is that Marvin Williams is not a significant step down in any of those areas. If you are pointing to (1) a 0.7% difference in their career 3PT%, (2) non-pace adjusted career rebounding numbers on a per 36 minute basis (I already showed how their true rebounding percentage is a wash), and (3) defensive stats that in part result from the dramatically different levels of team defense to dispute that claim, then I think you are being disingenuous.

The original reaction was "OMG Marvin Williams sucks, this is an absurd overpay!" Upon my further review, it's looking like a pretty reasonable calculated move. If you think McRoberts was worth 4 years at $5.5M, then given the make up of our team you should not have a huge problem with Marvin for 2 years at $7M.

If McRoberts wasn't such a good passer with such a impressive assist-to-turnover ratio, and that's before mentioning his accord chemistry with our team, I'd probably say that he suck too just like Marvin Williams does

Let's be honest, take away McRoberts' ability to pass and he's not starting over Zeller last year

Wrong.

Coach BRD mentioned on numerous ocassions how McRoberts was our general on defense and a key to making our schemes "click" by way of his BBIQ and willingness to be vocal on D and direct everyone else.

[mrknowitall215]

That's fine. My point is that Marvin Williams is not a significant step down in any of those areas. If you are pointing to (1) a 0.7% difference in their career 3PT%, (2) non-pace adjusted career rebounding numbers on a per 36 minute basis (I already showed how their true rebounding percentage is a wash), and (3) defensive stats that in part result from the dramatically different levels of team defense to dispute that claim, then I think you are being disingenuous.

The original reaction was "OMG Marvin Williams sucks, this is an absurd overpay!" Upon my further review, it's looking like a pretty reasonable calculated move. If you think McRoberts was worth 4 years at $5.5M, then given the make up of our team you should not have a huge problem with Marvin for 2 years at $7M.

If McRoberts wasn't such a good passer with such a impressive assist-to-turnover ratio, and that's before mentioning his accord chemistry with our team, I'd probably say that he suck too just like Marvin Williams does

Let's be honest, take away McRoberts' ability to pass and he's not starting over Zeller last year

Wrong.

Coach BRD mentioned on numerous ocassions how McRoberts was our general on defense and a key to making our schemes "click" by way of his BBIQ and willingness to be vocal on D and direct everyone else.

What am I wrong about? I'm not the one trying to make a argument that Marvin Williams is a equal to better defender than Josh McRoberts. That's them...

My stance is that McRoberts was a serviceable defender, and that his ability to facilitate on offense is what marginally separate him from Marvin Williams

I know, I know, it's 'mrknowitall215 so he think he know it all'. I plan on changing my moniker soon on the general board, and revamp myself so it would make it easier for people to read my post without reading too much into it

[TheKingofSting]

I am a little nervous about him starting at the 4, hopefully we get the version of him that was decent on some good Hawks teams.

[Vanderbilt_Grad]

Like I said before I don't love the contract and I still wish that the team had McBob over Marvin ... but I don't view this signing as a disaster. As others have pointed out he meets team needs (spacing) and the contract length was very important. Functionally many of his stats are at least in the ballpark of McBob outside passing.

I think that the positive gamble is that last year he was still recovering and the hope is that Williams will be able to produce more as he is further removed from injury and placed on a good team where his role will be better defined.

The risk is that he could be re-injured at some point and that he has never shown that he can play as "smart" as McBob. When Cliff talks about McBob on D, what he is raving about is how McBob learned the system and was able to be in the right places at the right time on things like help defense. It's not that McBob was a world class one-on-one guy, but part of his "glue guy" stuff was making the overall D plan work just like his passing made the O work some nights. This is where Marvin has the most to prove. He's going to have to step up his game big time as a starter.

I think that Zellers comments in summer league about being in the right place at the right time go back to this too. Cliff's system requires a lot of organization and precision. It's probably part of what he's been working on during the summer in hopes of more PT or even the starting role. Then he gets to Vegas and Ewing is much more disorganized and wants Zeller to do other stuff.

[LamarMatic7]

My two cents on the KIA and yosemiteben back-and-forth:

I've talked about my perception on raw rebounding numbers before and I've talked about McBob's rebounding numbers before. But to repeat - we rebounded better with Josh on the court. His on/off stats for team rebounding percentages prove it and he gets it done by being tenacious at boxing others out (something we don't have stats for). That's not something you can say about Marvin.

I definitely see McBob as the better player. But I think we can agree that the thinking behind choosing Williams over Josh was the 2 years we only had to give Messy Marv. We want to stay flexible for the summer of 2016.

Whether it was the right basketball move is another discussion.

[mrknowitall215]

I definitely see McBob as the better player. But I think we can agree that the thinking behind choosing Williams over Josh was the 2 years we only had to give Messy Marv. We want to stay flexible for the summer of 2016.

Whether it was the right basketball move is another discussion.

As difficult as it will be for me to accept this signing since I'm far from a Marvin Williams fan, I'll try to see it this way because it has merit, that it was all-in-all about signing him to a contract that'll allow Cho to flex his muscles in the 2016 offseason

[yosemiteben]

I've talked about my perception on raw rebounding numbers before and I've talked about McBob's rebounding numbers before. But to repeat - we rebounded better with Josh on the court. His on/off stats for team rebounding percentages prove it and he gets it done by being tenacious at boxing others out (something we don't have stats for). That's not something you can say about Marvin.

Not really trying to be controversial, and maybe this demonstrates my limited understanding of advanced stats, but I don't understand how that is true.

Here is Josh's 82 games profile, and here is Marvin's. Their on/off court stats are at the bottom.

Both Josh and Marvin are a net negative in total rebounding when they are on the floor as compared to when they are off. Marvin also has a higher player rating for rebounding, though I'll confess I have literally no idea what that means or how it's calculated, as well as higher defensive and offensive rebounding %'s. Just out of curiosity, do you have statistical evidence to support Josh's importance with regard to rebounding, or is that support more anecdotal?

Other interesting notes:

Josh and Marvin both spent the vast majority of their time at the PF spot, and their PER is almost identical.

Marvin actually has pretty far superior clutch stats, though it looks like he may have been on the floor less than Josh in those situations.

In terms of defensive impact, Marvin has significantly better net points in his on/off floor statistic than Josh.

I know we all already know this, but to add some substance to it - Josh averages 6.8 assists per 48 minutes. By contrast, Marvin averages 2.2 assists per 48 minutes. Yikes.

Looking at the shooting details, Josh's eFG% is significantly better on jump shots, but Marvin's eFG% is better than Josh's by an even greater margin on "close" shots, tip-ins and "inside" shots. Their eFG% overall is only 1% different, so essentially a wash.

Diving into their shot selection a little deeper, based on their shot chart from last season Marvin is the far superior 3 point shooter from the left wing - he shot 40.5% on 74 attempts, as opposed to Josh's 31.3% on 67 attempts. Take a look at Al's shot chart and you'll notice that he strongly prefers operating on the left side of the basket. One could make the argument that Marvin is a better pairing as a stretch 4 with Al because he shoots a far better % from outside on the side of the floor that Al prefers to operate.


...


Slow work day

[LofJ]

That's an excellent find about Marvin's ability to hit the left wing 3, nice work Ben.

[yosemiteben]

That's an excellent find about Marvin's ability to hit the left wing 3, nice work Ben.

If you look at their shot charts on NBA.com, the difference is actually even greater. They have Marvin shooting 41.56% on 77 attempts from the left wing, and Josh shooting just 29.51% on 61 attempts. Josh also was terrible from the left corner - he was just 3 of 18.

[LamarMatic7]

Not really trying to be controversial, and maybe this demonstrates my limited understanding of advanced stats, but I don't understand how that is true.

Here is Josh's 82 games profile, and here is Marvin's. Their on/off court stats are at the bottom.

Both Josh and Marvin are a net negative in total rebounding when they are on the floor as compared to when they are off. Marvin also has a higher player rating for rebounding, though I'll confess I have literally no idea what that means or how it's calculated, as well as higher defensive and offensive rebounding %'s. Just out of curiosity, do you have statistical evidence to support Josh's importance with regard to rebounding, or is that support more anecdotal?

First off, I use nba.com since they count up all the possessions, instead of 82games or BK-Ref who calculate the number of possessions thus their numbers differ.

Second, I was looking at DefREB% which is far more important. McBob is worse when you take OffREB% in account but I wasn't taking it in account. McBob doesn't seem to have the green light to attack the offensive glass and mostly would get back on transition defense. Moreover, he has the disadvantage of playing the least minutes with MKG out of all the starters so naturally his OffReb% would dip as MKG is our only player encouraged to swallow up the glass on offense. Add that up to the fact that Cody is quite adept at rebounding on offense by using his athleticism and that makes the possibility of McBob having a good OffREB% even worse.

That's, by the way, not to downplay the significance of that stat. Just explaining how it happens and why it happens. McBob was a lot better on his previous teams at offensive rebounding when he had more freedom to do so and when he was in his previous career stint (last season seemingly has marked the switch from McBob the hustle player to McBob the jack of all trades) but I can't deny that all in all he isn't any rebounding savant.

Either way, my point was that, despite McBob's mediocre rebounding stats, at the end of the day he helps his team hold down the defensive glass while Marvin would be more suspect at his when playing the 4.

[yosemiteben]

Fair point about offensive rebounding, I should have thought of that as I'm very aware of Clifford's "no one but MKG can go for O-boards" mantra.

[JDR720]

You gotta think Cliff changes his "no one but MKG can go after O-Boards" rule with Lance he is way to good of a rebounder to not let him