Thanks for the response.
Doctor MJ wrote:Really good questions. To be honest, I haven't done an analysis trying to quantify these era differences. So the things to look into:
How much (not if) of an advantage did no-hand check it to different types of perimeter player on offense?
Did no-hand check kill off perimeter player defensive impact?
What about big men defensive impact?
Hand-checking is interesting, and it did impact individual scoring for perimeter players, but I'm (perhaps incorrectly) thinking that a change affecting how bigs play is likely going to change the game more than how one impacting perimeter players is. Though spacing is largely making non-bigs more important, so maybe I'm wrong.
Hand-checking was also curtailed going into 78-79 and 94-95, so I wonder if those had similar effects?
Are the huge defensive numbers we're seeing for big men defenders in the late '90s something systematic, or was it due simply to more talented bigs?
Great, great question. That's what I'm hoping to learn.
With regards to the last question, a detailed eye ball analysis of Dikembe Mutombo would be awesome. In the past he's not someone I feel like we've really focused on here. He's always obviously been a stellar defender, but he's the guy whose defensive RAPM are absolutely off the chart. How would his M.O. be forced to change with newer things (illegal defense, more fast breaks, extreme 3-point spacing, etc), and what of his strengths would be just weakened?
Mutombo is a tremendous study here with his severe outliers in terms of dRAPM. I'm not sure how to feel about him. Was he that dominant? Or as you said above, was it something systematic? Depending on the answer, I might have to change how I think about defense entirely.
Answering literally your question about era those. The only one I've referred to here is the databall era, which to my mind extends back as far as we've got +/- for when we talk in this context (so '97), but would probably be 2000 based on coaches & GMs being informed.
Good point. So you'd go with 2000? Is that around when analytics departments/consultants started popping up (is there a timeline in terms of adaptation? Unfortunately for both of us, I believe the Lakers are still very much behind the ball in this regard)? Or just based on the availability/knowledge of their existence around the league?
Having the capacity to make informed decisions is a huge deal. It's still on the decision-makers to use the information they have obviously, but without the data existing this point is a non-starter.
I don't think it's a coincidence that around that time, the league became saturated with international players:
The databall era likely had a huge impact on scouting/drafting immediately.
Clearly '04-05 marks the start of a new era based on no-hand check.
I don't know if I think that the illegal defense rule change warrants being called an era shift. Had you asked me in '01-02 I might have said it was based on how the New Jersey Nets' running was the signature style of that year, but given what i now know of actual offensive efficacy and how meh the Nets were, it hardly seems to be worth calling so revolutionary.
Good point. Some of what drza posted about Minny playing KG in a weird zone defensive scheme (something like four corners with KG roaming a ton?) early on the first year after the change is another interesting development.
Is there any way to quantify spacing? Maybe someone could generate something from the play-by-play, but just going by the box score:
Code: Select all
Season 3PA/FGA 3PA/TSA
2013-14 25.9% 24.7%
2012-13 24.4% 23.7%
2011-12 22.6% 22.1%
2010-11 22.2% 21.4%
2009-10 22.2% 21.3%
2008-09 22.4% 21.7%
2007-08 22.2% 21.4%
2006-07 21.2% 20.5%
2005-06 20.3% 19.9%
2004-05 19.7% 19.2%
2003-04 18.7% 18.4%
2002-03 18.2% 17.7%
2001-02 18.1% 17.7%
2000-01 17.0% 16.5%
1999-00 16.7% 15.8%
1998-99 16.9% 16.8%
1997-98 15.9% 15.6%
1996-97 21.2% 20.9%
1995-96 20.0% 19.3%
1994-95 18.8% 17.9% <--Four-year college players from here on had the 3 each year in HS+college
1993-94 11.7% 10.7%
1992-93 10.5% 9.3%
1991-92 8.7% 7.8%
1990-91 8.1% 7.2% <--Four-year college players from here on had the 3 each year in college
1989-90 7.6% 6.7%
1988-89 7.4% 6.4%
1987-88 5.7% 4.9% <--High Schools adapt three
1986-87 5.3% 4.5% <--NCAA adapts three
1985-86 3.7% 3.2%
1984-85 3.5% 2.9%
1983-84 2.7% 2.3%
1982-83 2.6% 2.2%
1981-82 2.6% 2.2%
1980-81 2.3% 1.9%
1979-80 3.1% 2.6% <--NBA adapts threeLooks like it crossed 20% two years after the latest hand-checking rule change (three years in terms of 3PA/TSA, which might be more telling since players are rarely fouled on threes), though it's increasing in prevalence even further in the past couple of seasons.
Now that's the difference between first and last place.
Glad to know he was the third option in Minny as well, I guess Wally Z and Joe Smith was their 1-2 punch.
