Official Trade Thread - Part XXVIII

[hands11]

Sorry, nonsense. Last season Ariza took 11.1 shots a game and turned them into 12.5 points. The whole point is that he was low "usage" and still a very effective scorer. Leave aside being an incredible defender, fouling very little, turning it over rarely, rebounding effectively, etc.

He was our best player by a lot, and he also played 2d most minutes on the team at that high rate.

No he was not our best player. Wall was, by far. You're not acknowledging that Ariza's effectiveness depended on Wall making the plays for him. Wall did all of the heavy lifting. Again, Ariza's role was the most limited of any of our starting players.

I think Wall by far has the highest upside. John does change the game with his speed. Nobody covers more ground faster. Everything revolves around his transition game. He is the straw that stirs the drink. But as talented as he is I do not think he was the best player on the team.

Maybe I am just a critic. But his flat shot hurt the team against Indiana. His terrible half court execution hurt the team. His turnovers because of his pretty weak handle hurt the team. Wall is not a clutch shooter. What he is is a great facilitator. When he is confident and when his three-point shot is falling, then he becomes a devastatingly good player. But because of those weaknesses and his inconsistently focused defense I don't think he's the best.

Trevor Ariza did his job with much more reliability indeed it both hands of the court. Win score per 48 in both regular season and playoffs show Ariza was best. Playoff PER also rated Ariza higher.

No offense to Wall supporters. Perhaps you are right Wall is the all star. He is just 23 years old. When he is on his game he is certainly the best.

The guy who I think is really clutch is Beal. He and Wall are great together because their styles complement each other well.

Sent from my SGH-M919 using RealGM Forums mobile app

Over/Under on how long it takes CCJ to get over Trevor A

Im going with End of Nov

Once Ottomatic does his thing and PP hit the court. Its going to be all over.

[hands11]

Thats a huge point. A shot creator like Pierce is going to add that extra punch in our half court offense. Nene and Pierce are both good shot creators and passers at their positions. Maybe limit their minutes playing with Wall, bring them in when the Defense-Run-Gun isnt working. Watching the SL, Porter is built for run and gun style much the same way as Ariza was for us. He is long and rangey, hits the pull up three fairly well, covers a lot of ground fast on the break and is even capable of running the break himself. I was most impressed with his ball handling and decision making. Just hope he brings it in the big boy league.

Ottos ball handling is a huge addition. So is his mid range off the dribble.

TA didn't just leave for the money. He left because he know he was getting replaced.

Otto is going to be a better player then TA was.

It took TA 5 years to start hitting the 3 ball and when he did it was at .319 percent.

Otto will do betten then that in his first full year.

We got good value for trading for TA. I have no regrets. Last year was awesome. But I'm looking forward to next year to be more awesome.

[payitforward]

Thats a huge point. A shot creator like Pierce is going to add that extra punch in our half court offense. Nene and Pierce are both good shot creators and passers at their positions. Maybe limit their minutes playing with Wall, bring them in when the Defense-Run-Gun isnt working. Watching the SL, Porter is built for run and gun style much the same way as Ariza was for us. He is long and rangey, hits the pull up three fairly well, covers a lot of ground fast on the break and is even capable of running the break himself. I was most impressed with his ball handling and decision making. Just hope he brings it in the big boy league.

Ottos ball handling is a huge addition. So it his mid range off the dribble.

TA didn't just leave for the money. He left because he know he was getting replaced.

Otto is going to be a better player then TA was.

It took TA 5 years to start hitting the 3 ball and when he did it was at .319 percent.

Otto will do betten then that in his first full year.

Glad to know these things.... Do you have any stocks that you know are going to double?

(I'm high on Otto Porter too -- always have been)

[dckingsfan]

Happy that the press is not building up Porter to be better than Ariza.

It is going to be hard enough for him to adjust to the speed of the game next year much less go out and dominate a game (either on the offensive or defensive end of the court - as Ariza did several times last year).

Let's just hope that he gets meaningful minutes and makes good progress and also hope that PP doesn't break down.

[payitforward]

How great to be discussing whether Porter will be as good as Ariza instead of discussing whether Maynor will be as good as the slug on my front steps!

[fishercob]

How great to be discussing whether Porter will be as good as Ariza instead of discussing whether Maynor will be as good as the slug on my front steps!

How ironic.

[deneem4]

Happy that the press is not building up Porter to be better than Ariza.

It is going to be hard enough for him to adjust to the speed of the game next year much less go out and dominate a game (either on the offensive or defensive end of the court - as Ariza did several times last year).

Let's just hope that he gets meaningful minutes and makes good progress and also hope that PP doesn't break down.

Ariza never dominated offensively jus hit 3s consistently each off assists

[dckingsfan]

Happy that the press is not building up Porter to be better than Ariza.

It is going to be hard enough for him to adjust to the speed of the game next year much less go out and dominate a game (either on the offensive or defensive end of the court - as Ariza did several times last year).

Let's just hope that he gets meaningful minutes and makes good progress and also hope that PP doesn't break down.

Ariza never dominated offensively jus hit 3s consistently each off assists

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wi ... story.html

[deneem4]

Happy that the press is not building up Porter to be better than Ariza.

It is going to be hard enough for him to adjust to the speed of the game next year much less go out and dominate a game (either on the offensive or defensive end of the court - as Ariza did several times last year).

Let's just hope that he gets meaningful minutes and makes good progress and also hope that PP doesn't break down.

Ariza never dominated offensively jus hit 3s consistently each off assists

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wi ... story.html

Ariza would reach 40 and Wall would match his career high in assists.

Against the 76ers in full tank mode....worst possible example especially when

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2014/1/26/5 ... ature-2013
http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2014/4/11/5 ... mberwolves

Against real teams

[dckingsfan]

Ariza never dominated offensively jus hit 3s consistently each off assists

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wi ... story.html

Ariza would reach 40 and Wall would match his career high in assists.

Against the 76ers in full tank mode....worst possible example especially when

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2014/1/26/5 ... ature-2013
http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2014/4/11/5 ... mberwolves

Against real teams

I would venture to guess that he was the leading scorer every 10 games or so... maybe more often.

Edit: Actually looking it up - he was the high point scorer (from either team) one out of every 8 games. Add in his offensive rebounding and he had some dominant offensive games. And that doesn't touch on the games he dominated on the defensive side of the ball.

Not sure your point. Are you saying good 3 point shooters can't take over games?

[deneem4]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wi ... story.html

Ariza would reach 40 and Wall would match his career high in assists.

Against the 76ers in full tank mode....worst possible example especially when

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2014/1/26/5 ... ature-2013
http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2014/4/11/5 ... mberwolves

Against real teams

I would venture to guess that he was the leading scorer every 10 games or so... maybe more often.

Edit: Actually looking it up - he was the high point scorer (from either team) one out of every 8 games. Add in his offensive rebounding and he had some dominant offensive games. And that doesn't touch on the games he dominated on the defensive side of the ball.

Not sure your point. Are you saying good 3 point shooters can't take over games?

He's not a curry 3pt shooter, he needs to be setup...ariza is a pure spot up not pull up...the offense is created for him without wall getting him the looks he won't be scoring.
It's a difference from creating your own offense and scoring vs getting assisted in a spot up jumper.
if hitting open jumpers and offensive rebounds make ariza a talented offensive player than Ersan must be a god prior to last season

[dckingsfan]

Ariza would reach 40 and Wall would match his career high in assists.

Against the 76ers in full tank mode....worst possible example especially when

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2014/1/26/5 ... ature-2013
http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2014/4/11/5 ... mberwolves

Against real teams

I would venture to guess that he was the leading scorer every 10 games or so... maybe more often.

Edit: Actually looking it up - he was the high point scorer (from either team) one out of every 8 games. Add in his offensive rebounding and he had some dominant offensive games. And that doesn't touch on the games he dominated on the defensive side of the ball.

Not sure your point. Are you saying good 3 point shooters can't take over games?

He's not a curry 3pt shooter, he needs to be setup...ariza is a pure spot up not pull up...the offense is created for him without wall getting him the looks he won't be scoring.
It's a difference from creating your own offense and scoring vs getting assisted in a spot up jumper.
if hitting open jumpers and offensive rebounds make ariza a talented offensive player than Ersan must be a god 2 seasons ago

Clearly playing with Wall helped Ariza. And clearly Ariza helped Wall. Clearly Ariza moves well without the ball - and many PGs will take advantage of that.

But don't dismiss that Ariza scored inside the 3 point line as well and he scored nearly 3 points from the line per night.

You are saying that Ariza's scoring average is going to drop drastically. You are saying his 3 point shooting percentage is going to drop - ok then.

Edit: One thing I would say is that we would expect Ariza to move back to his career norms.

[deneem4]

I would venture to guess that he was the leading scorer every 10 games or so... maybe more often.

Edit: Actually looking it up - he was the high point scorer (from either team) one out of every 8 games. Add in his offensive rebounding and he had some dominant offensive games. And that doesn't touch on the games he dominated on the defensive side of the ball.

Not sure your point. Are you saying good 3 point shooters can't take over games?

He's not a curry 3pt shooter, he needs to be setup...ariza is a pure spot up not pull up...the offense is created for him without wall getting him the looks he won't be scoring.
It's a difference from creating your own offense and scoring vs getting assisted in a spot up jumper.
if hitting open jumpers and offensive rebounds make ariza a talented offensive player than Ersan must be a god 2 seasons ago

Clearly playing with Wall helped Ariza. And clearly Ariza helped Wall. Clearly Ariza moves well without the ball - and many PGs will take advantage of that.

But don't dismiss that Ariza scored inside the 3 point line as well and he scored nearly 3 points from the line per night.

You are saying that Ariza's scoring average is going to drop drastically. You are saying his 3 point shooting percentage is going to drop - ok then.

Edit: One thing I would say is that we would expect Ariza to move back to his career norms.

I'm saying ariza was a product of a system...insert ariza like player...same result

[dckingsfan]

He's not a curry 3pt shooter, he needs to be setup...ariza is a pure spot up not pull up...the offense is created for him without wall getting him the looks he won't be scoring.
It's a difference from creating your own offense and scoring vs getting assisted in a spot up jumper.
if hitting open jumpers and offensive rebounds make ariza a talented offensive player than Ersan must be a god 2 seasons ago

Clearly playing with Wall helped Ariza. And clearly Ariza helped Wall. Clearly Ariza moves well without the ball - and many PGs will take advantage of that.

But don't dismiss that Ariza scored inside the 3 point line as well and he scored nearly 3 points from the line per night.

You are saying that Ariza's scoring average is going to drop drastically. You are saying his 3 point shooting percentage is going to drop - ok then.

Edit: One thing I would say is that we would expect Ariza to move back to his career norms.

I'm saying ariza was a product of a system...insert ariza like player...same result

OK, your average 3&D player should do it...

[Nivek]

Well, sure -- insert a player like Ariza. Should be simple.

So, a SF with above average efficiency -- that gets us to 26 names (other than Ariza). Hmm. Let's look at defense. Ariza was 4th among SFs in defensive impact (about a standard deviation better than average). So, we can eliminate anyone with defensive impact less than half that. We're down to 7 names (one of them Paul Pierce, by the way).

Among these 8 players, Ariza shot the best from 3pt range last season. He also had the most pace-adjusted per minute 3pt attempts last season. His usage was closest to Batum and Leonard, neither of which is obtainable. Iguodala was lower usage, and expensive. So, we're down to three guys who can be considered Ariza "replacements" (at least based on last season) -- DeMarre Carroll, Paul Pierce and PJ Tucker. Ariza was the best of the four -- biggest defensive impact, 2nd in offensive efficiency (to Carroll), best 3pt percentage.

IF Pierce can stay healthy and avoid an age-related dropoff, he could be an okay (albeit different style) replacement for Ariza. Pierce shoots the three decently, but does more inside the arc. He gets to the FT line more often. He assists a little more than Ariza, but at the cost of extra turnovers. Rebounding is comparable. He got almost as many steals and actually blocked more shots than Ariza, but he also fouled a lot more.

But, not just anyone is going to replace what Ariza did last season.

[stevemcqueen1]

When you have a SF who can't create (like Ariza), it means you don't have other options when your creator (like Wall) is being defensed real well. And then you have to use your 20 year old 2 guard (like Beal) out of his comfort zone as a creator. There are team consequences that you don't see in individual productivity numbers when a player's offense is uni dimensional.

Agreed.

And I think it's time for you to change your signature, because Daryl Morey just made a mistake that even EFG didn't: got contract-yeared by Ariza... again.

Seriously, Morey has had a hideous offseason. What was it that makes him a great GM again?

[dckingsfan]

Well, sure -- insert a player like Ariza. Should be simple.

So, a SF with above average efficiency -- that gets us to 26 names (other than Ariza). Hmm. Let's look at defense. Ariza was 4th among SFs in defensive impact (about a standard deviation better than average). So, we can eliminate anyone with defensive impact less than half that. We're down to 7 names (one of them Paul Pierce, by the way).

Among these 8 players, Ariza shot the best from 3pt range last season. He also had the most pace-adjusted per minute 3pt attempts last season. His usage was closest to Batum and Leonard, neither of which is obtainable. Iguodala was lower usage, and expensive. So, we're down to three guys who can be considered Ariza "replacements" (at least based on last season) -- DeMarre Carroll, Paul Pierce and PJ Tucker. Ariza was the best of the four -- biggest defensive impact, 2nd in offensive efficiency (to Carroll), best 3pt percentage.

IF Pierce can stay healthy and avoid an age-related dropoff, he could be an okay (albeit different style) replacement for Ariza. Pierce shoots the three decently, but does more inside the arc. He gets to the FT line more often. He assists a little more than Ariza, but at the cost of extra turnovers. Rebounding is comparable. He got almost as many steals and actually blocked more shots than Ariza, but he also fouled a lot more.

But, not just anyone is going to replace what Ariza did last season.

Nice analysis, I might add that Trevor played about 700 minutes more - that is going to be a non-elite SF, IMO. Taking nothing away from Mr. Porter, he just isn't at that level yet.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Well, sure -- insert a player like Ariza. Should be simple.

So, a SF with above average efficiency -- that gets us to 26 names (other than Ariza). Hmm. Let's look at defense. Ariza was 4th among SFs in defensive impact (about a standard deviation better than average). So, we can eliminate anyone with defensive impact less than half that. We're down to 7 names (one of them Paul Pierce, by the way).

Among these 8 players, Ariza shot the best from 3pt range last season. He also had the most pace-adjusted per minute 3pt attempts last season. His usage was closest to Batum and Leonard, neither of which is obtainable. Iguodala was lower usage, and expensive. So, we're down to three guys who can be considered Ariza "replacements" (at least based on last season) -- DeMarre Carroll, Paul Pierce and PJ Tucker. Ariza was the best of the four -- biggest defensive impact, 2nd in offensive efficiency (to Carroll), best 3pt percentage.

IF Pierce can stay healthy and avoid an age-related dropoff, he could be an okay (albeit different style) replacement for Ariza. Pierce shoots the three decently, but does more inside the arc. He gets to the FT line more often. He assists a little more than Ariza, but at the cost of extra turnovers. Rebounding is comparable. He got almost as many steals and actually blocked more shots than Ariza, but he also fouled a lot more.

But, not just anyone is going to replace what Ariza did last season.

It's good to have you back, Nivek!

We thought about P. J. Tucker being an Ariza replacement. Ernie took the board by surprise signing Pierce.

It looks right now like Pierce was a great save by Ernie. Otherwise, they IMO surely would rue the day they played hardball with Ariza. What bothered me was folks on the board setting Ariza's value at $8M, tops. Although that's just what Ariza ended up getting from the Rockets I thought he was worth more to the Wizards. I think the best of all worlds would have been to have Ariza back for two seasons, not Pierce.

That ship has sailed. I think Pierce will be competitive. I'm looking forward to seeing what he has left.

[verbal8]

It's good to have you back, Nivek!

We thought about P. J. Tucker being an Ariza replacement. Ernie took the board by surprise signing Pierce.

It looks right now like Pierce was a great save by Ernie. Otherwise, they IMO surely would rue the day they played hardball with Ariza. What bothered me was folks on the board setting Ariza's value at $8M, tops. Although that's just what Ariza ended up getting from the Rockets I thought he was worth more to the Wizards. I think the best of all worlds would have been to have Ariza back for two seasons, not Pierce.

That ship has sailed. I think Pierce will be competitive. I'm looking forward to seeing what he has left.

I think Ariza preferred the Rockets to the Wizards. My guess is the Wizards made an offer that they thought was fair, and when the Rockets were willing to do the same - he accepted their offer.

[Dark Faze]

honestly

Porter, Rice JR, an unprotected 2015 first, and Nene has to be a better deal than Wiggins and trash right?