2019 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread

[Graham's Cracker]

Evan Smith with another superb outing in Bluefield. He's been sharp across two levels so far this season and doesn't turn 19 until next month.
Tonight 6.0/6H/0ER/2BB/5K


[tweet]https://twitter.com/BluefieldJays/status/491743397146005504[/tweet]

EDIT: A day late, a buck short on Schad's update

[Graham's Cracker]

Ronniel Demorizi an IFA from a couple years ago is having a real nice July in the DSL. He's walked 9 times in 41 PA while batting .406. Combine the two and that gives you a ridiculous .537 OBP.

He just turned 19.

Kendall Graveman took a tough loss facing Tyler Glasnow (who had 11 K's in 6 innings). Graveman has been really effective despite missing few bats.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/DunedinBlueJays/status/491718972551999488[/tweet]

There are a few guys at Dunedin that look like they could handle a promotion.

[dagger]

Ronniel Demorizi an IFA from a couple years ago is having a real nice July in the DSL. He's walked 9 times in 41 PA while batting .406. Combine the two and that gives you a ridiculous .537 OBP.

He just turned 19.

Kendall Graveman took a tough loss facing Tyler Glasnow (who had 11 K's in 6 innings). Graveman has been really effective despite missing few bats.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/DunedinBlueJays/status/491718972551999488[/tweet]

There are a few guys at Dunedin that look like they could handle a promotion.

Any read on why Josh Almonte has blown up at Bluefield? His first two seasons in the GCL didn't suggest a .330 hitter at the next level.

[Graham's Cracker]

Ronniel Demorizi an IFA from a couple years ago is having a real nice July in the DSL. He's walked 9 times in 41 PA while batting .406. Combine the two and that gives you a ridiculous .537 OBP.

He just turned 19.

Kendall Graveman took a tough loss facing Tyler Glasnow (who had 11 K's in 6 innings). Graveman has been really effective despite missing few bats.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/DunedinBlueJays/status/491718972551999488[/tweet]

There are a few guys at Dunedin that look like they could handle a promotion.

Any read on why Josh Almonte has blown up at Bluefield? His first two seasons in the GCL didn't suggest a .330 hitter at the next level.

Funny you should ask. Not because I have an answer, just because I was thinking the same thing earlier tonight. I haven`t heard any first hand reports on Almonte. Looking purely at the numbers, his K rate has gone from abysmal to just bad. His walk rate is as lousy as ever. I think he`s just getting lucky on balls in play. He`s batting .450 on balls in play.

[-MetA4-]

Almonte was a cold-weather HS kid from New York with some legitimate tools. The BB/K rate still looks bad, but his progress could be real on some levels.

[-MetA4-]

From a July 2nd interview with Doug Davis (Minor League Field Coordinator):


"Josh Almonte is hitting in the three spot for Bluefield. Davis said that Denis Holmberg decided to put Almonte there and he has run with it. Almonte was drafted out of New York City and Davis said he is still young and raw. But he did say that Almonte had the best extended spring season of any hitter and that he had shown excellent development since last season. Almonte has all the tools including good speed and a strong arm."

[-MetA4-]

Jake Brentz today:

4 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K ... 5:1 groundball to flyball ratio.

Learning?

[dagger]

From a July 2nd interview with Doug Davis (Minor League Field Coordinator):


"Josh Almonte is hitting in the three spot for Bluefield. Davis said that Denis Holmberg decided to put Almonte there and he has run with it. Almonte was drafted out of New York City and Davis said he is still young and raw. But he did say that Almonte had the best extended spring season of any hitter and that he had shown excellent development since last season. Almonte has all the tools including good speed and a strong arm."

Thanks for that.

[freakoutguy]

Rowdy Tellez with his first HR of the year

Sent from my LG-P880g using RealGM Forums mobile app

There are definitely reasons to be hopeful there. He's in the midst of a very good ten-game stretch with a bunch of doubles, walk rate is good, strikeout rate is surprisingly good. Only thing missing to date was hard contact, and that appears to be coming.

Rowdy was projected to have insane HR power, so glad that he finally got underway. His performance at bluefield has been underwhelming overall, although he has made some recent progress as noted

[Schad]

Rowdy Tellez with his first HR of the year

Sent from my LG-P880g using RealGM Forums mobile app

There are definitely reasons to be hopeful there. He's in the midst of a very good ten-game stretch with a bunch of doubles, walk rate is good, strikeout rate is surprisingly good. Only thing missing to date was hard contact, and that appears to be coming.

Rowdy was projected to have insane HR power, so glad that he finally got underway. His performance at bluefield has been underwhelming overall, although he has made some recent progress as noted

The big concern was that he had a tonne of holes in his swing, and those haven't yet presented...I'll take contact for the time being, because the power should come. Same reason I'm still quite high on Mitch Nay: he's doing everything well save the dingers, and no one really doubts that his power profile will bring them in time.

[Schad]

Dan Jansen with his third homer of the year. 19 year old cold-weather high school catcher with an OPS above .800 at the moment, throwing out 40% of wannabe basestealers...sploosh.

[dagger]

Dan Jansen with his third homer of the year. 19 year old cold-weather high school catcher with an OPS above .800 at the moment, throwing out 40% of wannabe basestealers...sploosh.

3-3 so far tonight. Nice to have catching depth in the minors. Too bad its the low minors.

[-MetA4-]

Ryan Borucki with a great start as well.

All of a sudden our "player development" looks a hundred times better. Who knew, turns out you cant expect every prospect to fly out of the gate looking like he'll be be MLB ready in 3 years.

[There There]

Ryan Borucki with a great start as well.

All of a sudden our "player development" looks a hundred times better. Who knew, turns out you cant expect every prospect to fly out of the gate looking like he'll be be MLB ready in 3 years.

Borucki, Smith, Castro, Tirado, Tinoco, Labourt, Smoral etc....

Seems like a broken record every year, but I am really looking forward to the possibilities with that Lansing staff.

[Schad]

So, a few people have asked for a top prospects list, so I've made one if only because I hadn't the foggiest idea myself. Note: if someone is missing, it's because I have the memory of a goldfish. Also, this is subject to change at any time for any reason, because I didn't put a tonne of thought into it. Anyhoo...

1. Norris
2. Sanchez
3. Barreto
4. Pompey
5. Hoffman (if he returns healthy, he's probably top two)
6. Pentecost
7. Urena
8. Osuna (would be higher if not for health concerns)
9. Nay
10. Castro
11. Lugo
12. Tirado
13. Jansen
14. Smith Jr
15. Dean
16. Nolin
17. De Jong
18. Jimenez
19. Tellez
20. Smoral


2-5 was a mite tricky. Of the roughly five minutes I spent labouring on this, probably two were spent rearranging those four guys. Using Sickels' grading system, they'd likely all be B+ types at the moment.

Probably downgraded Osuna more than most would owing to health, but hey.

Guessing that others might have Dean higher, but the strikeouts scare me.

On the bottom of the rankings...Jimenez is nothing special, but he does enough that I'd imagine that he'll be a backup catcher in the bigs for a fair while, with an outside possibility that he manages to put together enough growth to be a low-end starter. De Jong still does a lot well, but ye gods he needs to find a way to get the occasional groundball out. Also, because I couldn't choose between the many high-upside pitchers who've still yet to face anything other than overmatched 18 year olds, I just punted and left 'em all off.

[Graham's Cracker]

Pompey with another multi hit game. His early bad luck on balls in play at AA is correcting. batting .359 in past 10.

[Lateral Quicks]

Pompey with another multi hit game. His early bad luck on balls in play at AA is correcting. batting .359 in past 10.

Yep, great to see that OPS climb up to .731, which given his first two weeks or so is a dramatic turnaround.

He did rack up another caught stealing though, and he already has more in NH (6/3 SB/CS) than Dunedin (29/2). Probably a combination of better opposition (pitchers holding and catchers throwing) and getting acclimated to the league.

Speaking of stolen bases, Jon Berti got two more for 30 on the season, though he's been caught 11 times. If only he could get on base more; .309 OBP isn't going to cut it.

[dagger]

So, a few people have asked for a top prospects list, so I've made one if only because I hadn't the foggiest idea myself. Note: if someone is missing, it's because I have the memory of a goldfish. Also, this is subject to change at any time for any reason, because I didn't put a tonne of thought into it. Anyhoo...

1. Norris
2. Sanchez
3. Barreto
4. Pompey
5. Hoffman (if he returns healthy, he's probably top two)
6. Pentecost
7. Urena
8. Osuna (would be higher if not for health concerns)
9. Nay
10. Castro
11. Lugo
12. Tirado
13. Jansen
14. Smith Jr
15. Dean
16. Nolin
17. De Jong
18. Jimenez
19. Tellez
20. Smoral

I'd love to have a rotation by the middle of next season that features Sanchez, Norris and Stroman, with more on the way. A young, largely internally developed rotation with more on the way for backup or trade purposes. If we have to suffer a cheap, short-sighted owner that doesn't want to take a long view of spending, then at least we can master the St. Louis Cardinals' plan. If fans can't have an actual contender, a team with the prospect of being a contender no more than a year or two out based on a lot of controllable youth is a reasonable alternative. The pitching depth is great. Some of the pitchers not mentioned also belong in the honourable mentions, guys like Reid-Foley, Hollin, Brentz, Lietz... I think Griffin Murphy could emerge as a future eighth inning setup guy or closer.

We seem to be deep at catcher (Pentacost, Morgan, Nessy, Jimenez, Jansen), at least better than we have been for three or four years going back to when we acquired d'Arnaud and before Jimenez had his TJ surgery. First base, Dean plus a chance one of our college bats makes it through. We have a bevy of potential shortstops, which means we also have second base candidates, and with Nay and yes, Burns and/or Opitz, it would be nice to have a backup in the system for the often injured Lawrie who isn't older than the manager or a scrap heap pickup. With Pompey, we have a great outfield candidate, but need more, maybe one or more of the shortstops will be converted to the outfield. It would be a nice boost if Anthony Alford decides to go strictly with baseball. He's getting married next month, I believe, so maybe his new wife will give him his marching orders - there is more money and fewer knocks to the head in baseball.

Another good thing about this depth is that the Jays can stop jerking around the poor fans in Buffalo they so much want to keep happy. All of this stupid playing movement, the revolving door or day to day call ups, is not just hard on the players involved, but also on the fans in Buffalo who have a playoff drought of their own in progress. I'd like to see us having so much prospect depth we can afford to give good prospects more time in Buffalo, like maybe a full season, because they are not needed immediately in Toronto. That would also trickle down to NH which hasn't had a winner in a few years.

This growing talent depth also the reason I'd rather get rid of Beeston than AA if things go south. I don't think Beeston adds any value and to save his hide he'll try to pin a bad season on AA rather than stand up to ownership. AA may need a stronger president who can commit the entire organization to best practises in development, physical training, personnel selection, etc, and who can handle the PR side a whole lot better than AA.

[Schad]

I'd love to have a rotation by the middle of next season that features Sanchez, Norris and Stroman, with more on the way. A young, largely internally developed rotation with more on the way for backup or trade purposes. If we have to suffer a cheap, short-sighted owner that doesn't want to take a long view of spending, then at least we can master the St. Louis Cardinals' plan. If fans can't have an actual contender, a team with the prospect of being a contender no more than a year or two out based on a lot of controllable youth is a reasonable alternative. The pitching depth is great. Some of the pitchers not mentioned also belong in the honourable mentions, guys like Reid-Foley, Hollin, Brentz, Lietz... I think Griffin Murphy could emerge as a future eighth inning setup guy or closer.

Even if you're willing to spend fairly big bucks, that for me is the best route to contention (if you are willing to throw money around, it just means more to spend on a gargantuan offense). Pitchers in free agency are ludicrously expensive, and scarcely any more reliable than pre-arb kiddies, a great many of whom are competent at the major league level from the off. You can build a damned fine rotation from a vet or two and a handful of guys in the 1st - 4th seasons in the bigs, and back them up with a pile of veteran hitters (as hitters generally take longer to mature).

[dagger]

And Rowdy Tellez gets it going early for Bluefield, with an RBI double. Then adds an RBI single. Lane Thomas had a pair of extra base hits this morning.

Norris is having a roughish again tonight, hasn't given up a run yet and only one hit, but through three he has walked four and thrown more balls than strikes. Seems the third inning is his current mental block.
Update: Norrus survived, made it scoreless through 5 with 6K and didn't walk another batter. Maybe that will put him back on track.

Other notables tonight

NH: Pompey is 2-4 but caught stealing again. Andy Burns is 2-4, including his 11th HR, and stole his 15th base.
LAN: Matt Dean is 2-4, Mitch Nay 2-4; Chase De Jong went 4.0, 5H 1BB, 2R, 2K