RealGM Top 100 List #10

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#81 » by ronnymac2 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 6:21 am

shutupandjam wrote:
ronnymac2 wrote:
shutupandjam wrote:1. I think Garnett's low post game is underrated. In his prime at least, he was elite from the low post, with an excellent repertoire of moves, and he was very good at passing out of the post as well.


I don't remember it that way. He had his turnaround J and a one-handed push shot that looked awesome because of his verticality on the shot combined with his length. Other than that, he didn't get good position in the post consistently and didn't get to the free throw line. He was good in the low post, but I wouldn't say elite.


Consider this: according to synergy, Garnett was top 2 in points per possession from post-ups (among guys who had 250 post up possessions) every year from 2005 (the first year with synergy data) to 2008. Cut the minimum possessions to 100 and he's still top 5 from 2005-2007 and #7 in 2008.


Interesting data, I wouldn't have expected that. Questions:

1. Does that mean points scored by the team per possession when KG is involved in a post-up, or just KG's scoring per possession on a post-up?
2. Does it differentiate between face-up moves on the block vs. back-to-the-basket post-ups?


That said, I do believe KG's offense is superior to Robinson's.

I admire Robinson's offense and the points he scored, and I think he's an underrated passer. In 1994, SAS let Rodman control the offensive glass and had Robinson play the role of high post passer, somewhat similar to the role KG played in Minny during much of his prime, and the Admiral dished 4.8 assists per game on a +4.1 offense (4th in the league). He also averaged 29.8 points. Pretty crazy.

Then from 1998-2003, Duncan and Robinson were a devastating ho-low combination thanks to each player having fantastic passing skills.

However, there are some major problems with Robinson's game that don't translate well in the playoffs. He doesn't have KG's range and ball-handling, and he doesn't have a low post, back-to-the-basket game like the dominant offensive bigs. And despite the 4.8 assists per game one season, he doesn't have the vision and super-creative passing of Bill Walton. What effect is he having on his team's offense without his own individual production? How many opportunities can you create without effective handles? Robinson has good handles as far as his own individual quick attack towards the basket, but when he uses those, can he make plays for others?

I see Robinson's offense as essentially being a Chris Bosh with better offensive rebounding, being more physically capable of taking advantage of really weak/small primary defenders in the post, better in transition, and being slightly quicker/off the dribble. Bosh has more range (KG-range). In the playoffs, no team is going to defend him with a physically weak defender, and transition opportunities can be strategically dismantled. He's also not a dominant offensive rebounder at his peak, certainly no Shaq/Dwight. And that off-the-dribble stuff can be flummoxed by a physical defender who can hold off Robinson's explosion to the hoop until help comes (See '94 vs. Malone). Once the help comes, and Robinson is still using his dribble, his reads aren't particularly good. Certainly not Duncan/O'Neal/KG/Dirk when they were on the move and saw help coming.

If you put Robinson in a secondary role, he'll do better, no doubt. Still, in comparison to KG, that doesn't help him, because KG has a better J with more range on it, and KG has superior ball-handling. Heck, I've never been particularly impressed by KG in the post, but it's still a tool he can use even against long defenders. I just don't see that type of game in Robinson. Only advantage I see for Robinson over KG is a secondary role in offensive rebounding, and again, Robinson wasn't all-time elite here.

Defensively, it's a pick'em to me. Offensively, KG gets the edge.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#82 » by andrewww » Wed Jul 23, 2014 6:30 am

Bird is the favourite for obvious reasons as thoroughly explained in this project to great lengths.

Who are the challengers? With all due respect to KG, a lot of his success is with advanced models and although these numbers absolutely do help tell a better picture, sometimes the results speak for themselves and at this #10 slot, no other player is as decorated as Kobe while being the offensive anchor that he was? Garnett is the defensive anchor (not like a traditional center, more of a 6-11 versatile Scottie Pippen while being arguably the game's best rebounder) but lacks the proven results overall like Kobe, although having said that KG is the other legit candidate at #10 as well. KMalone was an offenisve anchor that couldn't break through in the clutch on the biggest stage in his prime, and likewise with a lot of the other offensive bigs soon to be in the discussion on the list. Dr. J hasn't really shown me enough as a player and career-wise to put him ahead of Bean. Ditto for Oscar and West.

Relative to Bird, Kobe had the prime and longevity edge, and was the better defender at his best, especially with man-to-man which is where he excels moreso than help defense imo. Playoff performance relatively even, but Bird is one of the GOAT offensive players at his peak. I will say that Kobe's peak is criminally underrated in the sense that his absolute best as a player between 2006-07 did not coincide with team success. I'd say his peak as a 2-way player was in 2001 and 2003. That's 4 great seasons that are tough to judge based on the winning aspect. Hence why people peg his peak at 2008 but in reality he had already slightly passed his peak imo.

In many ways, where he is underrated his how they will finished 45-37 in a tough Western Conference as the 7th seed and pushed the Phoenix Suns with Nash and co at their peak to 7 games despite having a starting lineup of Smush Parker/Kobe/Radmanovic/Odom/Mihm. Phil Jackson himself wanted to see him take on a heavier workload knowing the weaker supporting cast and he delivered as best you could given the circumstances. Became more selective in that epic round against the Suns and the results made them surprisingly more effective than what I would've honestly anticipated.

Those losses in 2008 and especially 2004, the injuries were a big factor without Bynum and Malone respectively. Having said that, I still thought the Pistons were the significantly better team and that's just a case of running into a better team. Bird has had his fair share of similar scenarios but again, it's not to knock either player but rather to illustrate that this comparison isn't as farfetched as some would think.

Furthermore, I liken the 3peat years as similar to the Kareem/Magic dynamic in the early 80s, where Magic adapted his role to what the team needed. Between 2000-2002 was when Kobe really played the defense that his reputation carried for quite a while longer than it should have to be fair. He was asking to guard everyone from cat quick point guards to small forwards. He was an outstanding man defender. Played essentially the Pippen role in 2000 but the subsequent two championships were a 1 and 1a dynamic depending on the matchup.

It's easy to criticize the negatives and while I agree that he deserves blame for alot of it (the KMalone drama with his wife, connecting with teammates when he was younger, handling criticism or slights in a more mature manner), a lot of the Shaq drama was contributed by Diesel himself if we're being objective. What hurts Kobe most as a player is mainly his stubborness and tendency to take hero shots, hence why he's only got a modest FG% for his career. This is why I feel the top 9 deservedly have the edge on these rankings.

If you can make 7 finals in 11 prime years (2000-2010), by my book you must be doing something right. And let's not forget, it's not like the West was ever the inferior conference at ANY point in time. Level of competition speaks for itself. You have arguably the greatest tandem ever being co-anchors (though Shaq was more influential at his peak compared to Kobe) considering Derek Fisher was probably your 3rd best player who was the perfect compliment by going 15 of 20 from behing the arc during the 2001 Finals against Philly.

At some point in time, given the consistency of this project for having close run-offs being decided by the player with the longer career, then I think it's prudent Kobe get his due recognition as a viable candidate for this slot. #notavoteyet #stillundecided
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#83 » by An Unbiased Fan » Wed Jul 23, 2014 6:37 am

I can't see how KG has the edge in offense when DRob outperformed him in both the regular season & playoffs. DRob had a scoring title under his belt and was far more efficient.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24NLqvKER1c[/youtube]

Here's DRob dropping 34points/10rebs/10assists/10blocks to show his overall skill.

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#84 » by ronnymac2 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 6:40 am

What do people think Karl Malone's peak year is? I usually say 1997, but I'm thinking 1995 might be it because he still went to the power post game often. 1995 Jazz were insanely good, too. Malone was dominant in the playoffs.

When did Malone really improve his passing? Honestly, from '95 on, I see an elite passer from his position who could make amazingly quick reads and fire bullet interior passes. In 2004, he picked up on the triangle right away and was adept at setting up on the baseline and finding Shaq inside for dunks.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#85 » by andrewww » Wed Jul 23, 2014 7:02 am

ronnymac2 wrote:What do people think Karl Malone's peak year is? I usually say 1997, but I'm thinking 1995 might be it because he still went to the power post game often. 1995 Jazz were insanely good, too. Malone was dominant in the playoffs.

When did Malone really improve his passing? Honestly, from '95 on, I see an elite passer from his position who could make amazingly quick reads and fire bullet interior passes. In 2004, he picked up on the triangle right away and was adept at setting up on the baseline and finding Shaq inside for dunks.


Great question. Stylistically, 1995 probably wins out but statistically, 1997 and even 1990 are probably it. I think his lack of a championship hurts his image moreso than what it should be for me. A darkhorse pick in the next couple of discussions for sure, along with KG although I don't think KG qualifies as a darkhorse anymore given how much coverage he's received.

For what it's worth, realgm had KMalone's peak as 1998.

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1197732
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#86 » by Quotatious » Wed Jul 23, 2014 7:18 am

ronnymac2 wrote:What do people think Karl Malone's peak year is? I usually say 1997, but I'm thinking 1995 might be it because he still went to the power post game often. 1995 Jazz were insanely good, too. Malone was dominant in the playoffs.

Honestly, I never even considered 1995, but I guess a case could be made. considering that he held his own against Hakeem in the playoffs (Olajuwon gets the upper hand, but Mailman averaged 30/13/4 on 55% TS, so he definitely didn't choke that time...). I've always considered 1992 or 1998 as his peak. He had clearly his best playoff performance in '92 (29 PPG on 62% TS) in 16 playoff games that year. 1998 might be the best overall, as he had a great RS and decent playoffs. 1997 is basically like a worse version of '98, overall, as he played basically on the same level in the 97 and 98 RS, but 98 playoffs were clearly better - I mean, he shot 43.5% FG as a bigman in the '97 playoffs - that's a major blemish on that season (including just 24 PPG on 48.5% TS in the finals).

As far as his passing, I'd say he clearly improved between 92 and 93, then again between 95 and 96, and finally 96 to 97 (I'm going by his AST%, as his turnover rate stayed more or less the same, at about 11%).
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#87 » by Baller2014 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 7:19 am

Obviously Bird is going to win this, but since Kobe fans are voting for him I'd be thrilled if they could finally address Kobe's negatives. I mean, for me it's enough that Bird was a better player than Kobe by a substantial margin, but when you add in the fact that Kobe was a bad team mate who hindered his teams repeatedly with his baggage, while Bird was the ultimate team mate, it's hard to see how you could go with Kobe. Kobe has some longevity on him (though it's overstated), but given all the other stuff this is clearly Bird.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#88 » by Quotatious » Wed Jul 23, 2014 7:24 am

Baller2014 wrote:Obviously Bird is going to win this, but since Kobe fans are voting for him I'd be thrilled if they could finally address Kobe's negatives. I mean, for me it's enough that Bird was a better player than Kobe by a substantial margin, but when you add in the fact that Kobe was a bad team mate who hindered his teams repeatedly with his baggage, while Bird was the ultimate team mate, it's hard to see how you could go with Kobe. Kobe has some longevity on him (though it's overstated), but given all the other stuff this is clearly Bird.

I'm not a Kobe fan by any means (but I'm also not a hater, even drafted him 9th overall in our fantasy draft in January Image), but I think the answer may be as simple as that - some people just don't care how good a player was as a teammate, or they don't feel comfortable evaluating that as they don't know what was going on behind the scenes and in locker rooms.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#89 » by Baller2014 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 7:59 am

I dunno Quo, Kobe's negatives are pretty well documented. I made a mega post about it earlier in the project, and got no reply to any of it. It was in the Dr J v.s Kobe thread too (viewtopic.php?p=40716127#p40716127). This isn't speculative, it actually happened.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#90 » by acrossthecourt » Wed Jul 23, 2014 8:35 am

Chuck Texas wrote:accross,

why does it matter if Admiral dropped more in relation to his RS self if he still out-performs KG in the PS?

This is what I was talking about in the other thread. It just makes no sense at all to say someone is a better playoff performed based more on the relationship to how they performed in the RS than on how they actually performed in the playoffs.

And frankly most players drop off in the postseason, barring a few notable exceptions. Better teams, better defensives, better coaches, better gameplans, familiarity etc. I tend to credit the guys who raise their games: Dream, Mike, Dirk, etc... but try not to over-react to those whose numbers look worse--Robinson, KG, Malone, etc.

And I would certainly never judge it on a percentage comparison to the RS.

Define your terms first.

If you control for the strength of the opponents, then there is no drop-off for the "average" player. Ewing and Shaq, for instance, over several years after an SOS adjustment are about as good as you'd expect. Robinson's an exception.

Robinson looks like a stud if you only use his regular season advanced stats. He's like top five all-time. But if you make some adjustments based on how he does against better teams, he falls a bit, but still not far around that we should ignore him right now for 11th or around there.

And he was a great sidekick for Duncan. That's gotta count for something.

DannyNoonan1221 wrote:Bird- I am starting to question how much impact he really had and how much was his story- poor, blue collar white guy from indiana finds himself at the top of the NBA after black players have all but dominated since integration into the game (Russell/Wilt into Kareem), matched up against Magic from his college days and then put into the Boston/LA rivalry (and put on the 'Blue Collar' team of the two). Everything seemed to fall into place for his story. Then over time its inflated.

I really don't think his impact can be questioned.

ElGee's with/without stats are pretty huge in his favor. Isn't that impact? Even though most of the data is from his later seasons when he was hampered by injuries, they're still +4.4 better with him.

And his skin color probably ruins the perception of his defense.


shutupandjam wrote:Re: the Robinson/Garnett dropoff debate, going back to my average playoff difference spreadsheet (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DsVfN9F888r36jwXbr5apX7NchRXURMn7SwxSz-9AbM/edit?usp=sharing) Robinson does have one of the worst average playoff dropoffs of anyone in the top 100 from the 2011 project, but even after accounting for his drop off, he's still better than regular season Garnett in my metric, and that's taking out Garnett's first four years to compare apples to apples (which takes him from 3.6 to 4.0).

I have already shown that Robinson stacks up to Garnett in rapm at the same age with the years we have for Robinson. So Robinson a) dominates Garnett in the box score and b) is likely his equal in plus minus. At this point I'm not persuaded that Garnett is the better player even given the five-ish years he adds.

If you value ASPM, then you're implicitly trusting RAPM.

So I compared Garnett's ASPM and his RPI RAPM year to year from 1998 to 2010 (no 2001.) The average rank disparity was 10.8, meaning ASPM was underrating him. I even took the natural log of the rank because even with one season ranked 34th can have a big effect on the numbers. The log disparity is 0.7.

For David Robinson the numbers are -4.25 and -0.4. ASPM is overrating him a little, so I'd say if we had 2001 the results would be a little closer to 0.

Besides the mid-00's when he had crazy numbers, ASPM consistently underrates Garnett. Thus you cannot use the ASPM argument to pick Robinson over Garnett, as Garnett is underrated and does more to contribute outside of the box score than Robinson, in my opinion.

ElGee wrote:Apologies I can't quote everyone from the last 2 threads -- easier and faster to inject a few responses here.

Robinson vs. Garnett --- I've been too hard in the past on Robinson for supposed playoff failures. I also don't understand acrossthecourt's numbers. I've double-checked my calculations and I presume we're using the same box scores from BBR. I have Robinson with the following splits from 90-98:

    +3 defenses: 22.6 pts/36 and 56.5 TS%
    -3 defenses: 21.8 pts/36 and 55.9% TS%
    Playoffs: 21.4 pts/36 and 54.9% TS%

That to me is basically no drop off, while Garnett has clear drop off in these same splits.

Yeah those Robinson numbers are obviously wrong.

Here I did 1990 to 2001 excluding 1997, RS only:
-3: 55.3 TS%
+3: 63.4 TS%

And 1990 to 1998:
-3: 56.3 TS%
+3: 63.8 TS%

You're saying his TS% barely changes when he faces an elite defense or a bad one? That's incredible. And doesn't dip in the playoffs? It really doesn't look like that....

Plus ... from 1990 to 1998 his TS% in the regular season is 59. Why are the stats you posted so low?

Here are the games versus defenses rated -3 or lower:
Spoiler:
1993 NYK
1993 NYK
1994 NYK
1998 CLE
1998 CLE
1996 CHI
1996 CHI
1996 SEA
1996 SEA
1996 SEA
1996 SEA
1998 CHI
1998 CHI
1994 HOU
1994 HOU
1994 HOU
1994 HOU
1994 HOU
1994 SEA
1994 SEA
1994 SEA
1994 SEA
1998 NYK
1998 NYK
1990 HOU
1990 HOU
1990 HOU
1990 HOU
1990 DET
1990 DET
1994 ATL
1994 ATL
1995 NYK
1995 NYK
1996 NYK
1996 POR
1996 POR
1996 POR
1996 NYK
1996 POR
1991 HOU
1991 HOU
1991 HOU
1991 HOU
1991 HOU
1992 POR
1992 NYK
1992 POR
1992 NYK
1992 POR
1994 DEN
1994 DEN
1994 DEN
1994 DEN
1994 DEN
1994 DEN
1995 CHI
1995 CHI
1996 MIA
1996 MIA
1992 CHI
1992 CHI
1995 CLE
1995 CLE
1990 POR
1990 POR
1990 POR
1990 POR
1991 POR
1991 POR
1991 POR
1991 POR
1994 CHI
1994 CHI
1992 LAC
1992 LAC
1992 LAC
1992 LAC
1998 IND
1998 IND
1991 DET
1991 DET
1998 PHO
1998 PHO
1998 PHO
1993 SEA
1993 SEA
1993 SEA
1993 SEA
1995 ATL
1995 ATL
1998 MIA
1998 MIA


Here are the games versus defenses rated +3 or higher:
Spoiler:
1991 MIN
1991 MIN
1991 MIN
1991 MIN
1994 MIL
1994 MIL
1994 LAL
1994 LAL
1994 LAL
1994 LAL
1995 WSB
1995 WSB
1994 DAL
1994 DAL
1994 DAL
1994 DAL
1994 DAL
1990 IND
1990 IND
1994 PHI
1994 PHI
1998 HOU
1998 HOU
1998 HOU
1998 HOU
1996 DAL
1996 DAL
1996 DAL
1996 DAL
1993 MIN
1993 MIN
1993 MIN
1993 MIN
1993 MIN
1990 ATL
1990 ATL
1995 GSW
1995 GSW
1995 GSW
1995 GSW
1996 MIL
1996 MIL
1995 MIN
1995 MIN
1995 MIN
1995 MIN
1995 MIN
1991 IND
1991 IND
1992 MIN
1992 MIN
1992 MIN
1992 MIN
1992 MIN
1992 MIN
1996 CHH
1996 CHH
1996 TOR
1996 TOR
1990 GSW
1990 GSW
1990 GSW
1990 GSW
1994 DET
1994 DET
1995 DET
1995 DET
1996 PHI
1996 PHI
1994 WSB
1998 TOR
1990 ORL
1990 ORL
1998 LAC
1998 LAC
1998 LAC
1998 LAC
1993 DAL
1993 DAL
1993 DAL
1993 DAL
1993 DAL
1991 DEN
1991 DEN
1991 DEN
1991 DEN
1991 DEN
1998 VAN
1998 VAN
1998 VAN
1998 DEN
1998 DEN
1998 DEN
1998 DEN


Check again. Or did you already adjust for strength of schedule? Even then your average should be close to 59.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#91 » by E-Balla » Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:19 am

Baller2014 wrote:I dunno Quo, Kobe's negatives are pretty well documented. I made a mega post about it earlier in the project, and got no reply to any of it. It was in the Dr J v.s Kobe thread too (viewtopic.php?p=40716127#p40716127). This isn't speculative, it actually happened.

Well Kobe's been a great teammate since about 07 and he didn't fall off until 2013 so that's 7 years of Kobe being a great player and teammate (and for 3 of those years he's a superstar and top 3 player). Bird only has 9 great seasons total with 3 other years at all star level. And this isn't counting young Kobe (97-00) who was a good teammate and his seasons as a bad teammate that was still an elite talent and top 5 player yearly (01-06). He completely overwhelms Bird in total years and as much as he was a headache off the court you couldn't say he made anyone worse on the court. Players constantly upped their games next to Kobe (maybe Phil is why maybe not).

This to me is 9 great years of Bird vs 14 great years of Kobe with Bird having better regular season play but even postseason play (at best).
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#92 » by Baller2014 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:33 am

Kobe demanded a trade in 2007, so I think you mean 2008. That's 6 years, only 3-4 in his prime. I can definitely say he made people worse on the court by his actions, and I do. Go read the post I linked to. What are Kobe's 14 great years? I count 10 prime years (01-11 minus 05), and then 2-3 other years where he was a legit all-nba calibre guy (99, 00 and 12). 2013 he scored efficiently, but he was so bad on D (and so disruptive to team chemistry) I wouldn't include it, especially not with him missing the playoffs. Bird's got 9 prime years, and then about another 2.5 that are better than any of Kobe's non-prime years.

Where does that leave us?
- Bird's peak is far higher
- Bird's prime of 9 years seems far preferable to Kobe's 10 year prime
- Bird's roughly 2.5 non-prime years look better, or at least comparable, to Kobe's 3 all-nba years (99, 00, 12)
- Then throw in the fact that Kobe is a horrible team mate, while Bird is a legendary one
It becomes hard to see where the Kobe argument is coming from.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#93 » by E-Balla » Wed Jul 23, 2014 10:20 am

Baller2014 wrote:Kobe demanded a trade in 2007, so I think you mean 2008.

He said he wanted to be traded but constantly made it a point to say he'd stay if they stopped rebuilding and looked to win ("They could've told me they were rebuilding when I signed 3 years ago").

That's 6 years, only 3-4 in his prime. I can definitely say he made people worse on the court by his actions, and I do. Go read the post I linked to.

How about providing statistical evidence that players played worse next to him. Sure he could've probably helped his teammates a bit more but he already had them playing far above their skill level (or Phil did).

What are Kobe's 14 great years? I count 10 prime years (01-11 minus 05), and then 2-3 other years where he was a legit all-nba calibre guy (99, 00 and 12).

2000-2013. I meant the stretch in general. Kobe was top 5 almost all these years (2000, 05, 11-12 - all still All-NBA caliber seasons).

2013 he scored efficiently, but he was so bad on D (and so disruptive to team chemistry) I wouldn't include it, especially not with him missing the playoffs. Bird's got 9 prime years, and then about another 2.5 that are better than any of Kobe's non-prime years.

Go look at the POY discussion that year. Before going down with an injury before the playoffs almost everyone was saying Kobe was top 5 (Melo, Lebron, KD, CP3, Harden, Wade being the other common choices with Wade and Harden clearly being overrated). He was clearly better than 90s Bird. Actually all these Kobe seasons you are bashing are better than 90s Bird.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#94 » by rich316 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 10:25 am

My vote for #10: Larry Bird.

My post from the #8 thread:

He was the player of the 80s. I agree with the general consensus that has emerged with a closer examination of the Celtics v. Lakers rivalry of the era: Magic went to a stacked team and grew within it's structure, but Bird went to a team in transition and immediately became its leader. Until his injuries slowed him down in the late 80s, Bird was a valuable help defender. Defensively, I compare him to a slightly-poorer man's Jason Kidd at the forward position - not quick enough to stick on the quickest isolation scorers, but smart as hell, and with the hand-eye coordination and hand strength to get sneaky steals and end up in the right place at the right time. His peak stats are simply jaw-dropping, and really put in perspective how it's possible for a player to win three consecutive MVPs in uncontroversial fashion.

Bird's offensive game sets the table for a team built around ball movement, shooting, and space - the kind of team that can thrive in any era, against any opponent. Bird would probably be even better in today's era than he was in the 80s, which is saying quite a lot.


I don't think there's a ceiling for a Bird-lead offense. Ball-movement, transition, shooting, passing, post play, off-ball motion, pick and roll, he can excel at it all. He's a swiss-army knife of offensive firepower. My ideas of greatness are evolving slightly towards portability as an asset, not necessarily across eras, but in terms of same-era team building flexibility. It's hard to imagine a guy who would dominate in every single era and in every team context more than Larry Bird.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#95 » by Baller2014 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 10:28 am

GC Pantalones wrote:He said he wanted to be traded but constantly made it a point to say he'd stay if they stopped rebuilding and looked to win ("They could've told me they were rebuilding when I signed 3 years ago").

This sounds like something Kobe would say. The Lakers were not trying to rebuild, they were trying to win. That's why they paid top dollar to re-hire Phil Jackson (who is not a rebuilding coach). They were just not winning enough, because a) Kobe wasn't as good as he/they thought, and b) because they were recovering from a series of bad moves (some of which Kobe forced on them. Want to know how not to rebuild? Keep Shaq, or at least take your time trading him after you get a bidding war going- Kobe forced them to trade him right after the 04 season with little leverage, because he wouldn't re-sign until Shaq was gone). Kobe had to endure a small amount of hardship, and almost immediately demanded a trade. It's no more than we should have expected given his history, but it's hardly a positive quality in a team mate. A lot of the guys he's being compared to soldiered through rough times, without quitting on their team. You act like it's a positive thing that he didn't want to honour his contract, and tried to force a trade.

How about providing statistical evidence that players played worse next to him. Sure he could've probably helped his teammates a bit more but he already had them playing far above their skill level (or Phil did).

How about reading the post I linked to which details it extensively? The guy was a huge chemistry problem for many years.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#96 » by The Infamous1 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 10:29 am

Postseason Prime Kobe (06-10)VS Prime Bird (84-88)

Kobe:30/5/5 57%TS
Bird: 26/9/6 56%TS


Series W/L
Bird 16-3(84%)
Kobe 11-3(78%)

Record With HCA
Kobe 11-0(100%)
Bird: 16-2(88%)

Record Against 50+ Win Teams
Bird:11-3(78%)
Kobe:10-3(76%)

All star Teammates
Bird: 3- Parish(84-87), DJ(85), Mchale(84/86-88)
Kobe: 1- Pau(09-10)
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#97 » by E-Balla » Wed Jul 23, 2014 10:50 am

Baller2014 wrote:
GC Pantalones wrote:He said he wanted to be traded but constantly made it a point to say he'd stay if they stopped rebuilding and looked to win ("They could've told me they were rebuilding when I signed 3 years ago").

This sounds like something Kobe would say. The Lakers were not trying to rebuild, they were trying to win. That's why they paid top dollar to re-hire Phil Jackson (who is not a rebuilding coach). They were just not winning enough, because a) Kobe wasn't as good as he/they thought, and b) because they were recovering from a series of bad moves (some of which Kobe forced on them. Want to know how not to rebuild? Keep Shaq, or at least take your time trading him after you get a bidding war going- Kobe forced them to trade him right after the 04 season with little leverage, because he wouldn't re-sign until Shaq was gone). Kobe had to endure a small amount of hardship, and almost immediately demanded a trade. It's no more than we should have expected given his history, but it's hardly a positive quality in a team mate. A lot of the guys he's being compared to soldiered through rough times, without quitting on their team. You act like it's a positive thing that he didn't want to honour his contract, and tried to force a trade.

Yeah but Bird was never in this situation for us to see how he'd respond. I'm not saying it wasn't Kobe's fault the Lakers sucked or that Kobe was immature back then but the Lakers clearly were starting a rebuild around Kobe. In 05 they only had 2 vets aside from Kobe (Grant and Atkins). The next year they get even younger getting Bynum, Smush and Kwame (with the 24 and 23 year old Smush/Kwame replacing the only old players in the rotation from 05). They also started playing Vujacic and Walton (both were young). In 06 outside of Kobe and Odom (both of who were still young and improving or thought to be improving) nobody had proven themselves in the NBA yet. Doesn't sound like they were trying to win it sounds like they were rebuilding.

How about providing statistical evidence that players played worse next to him. Sure he could've probably helped his teammates a bit more but he already had them playing far above their skill level (or Phil did).

How about reading the post I linked to which details it extensively? The guy was a huge chemistry problem for many years.

I read the post and I'll say the same thing about it I said last time. Kobe could've meshed better in his early years if he knew his place but he was so good that just him being out on the court helped the team in general. Players played better next to Kobe than they did with others because as selfish as he was his game was good enough to shine through it.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#98 » by Quotatious » Wed Jul 23, 2014 11:07 am

The Infamous1 wrote:Postseason Prime Kobe (06-10)VS Prime Bird (84-88)

Kobe:30/5/5 57%TS
Bird: 26/9/6 56%TS

FWIW, Kobe also has a pretty clear edge in playoff PER during that timespan (24.9 to 22.7) and I'd say these two were pretty much equal in the playoffs in their respective top 5-year stretches (maybe even the tiniest edge goes to Kobe?)

Here are their RS stats:

1984-88 Bird:

27/10/7/2/1, 26.1 PER, 23.7 WS/48, 58.8% TS

2006-10 Kobe:

30/6/5/2, 25.0 PER, 20.0 WS/48, 56.5% TS

So, when you take both the RS and PS into account, they seem to be pretty damn close. I don't think there's much difference defensively, either (Kobe was a better man defender, BIrd better help/team defender - I guess Bryant might get a tiny edge here, especially in those seasons when he had good help - 2008, and especially 2009 and 2010, but Bird was more consistent).

I admit that I wouldn't have a problem if someone called prime Bird and Kobe even. It seems like that.

That being said...
The Infamous1 wrote:Series W/L
Bird 16-3(84%)
Kobe 11-3(78%)

Record With HCA
Kobe 11-0(100%)
Bird: 16-2(88%)

Record Against 50+ Win Teams
Bird:11-3(78%)
Kobe:10-3(76%)

These numbers don't prove absolutely anything.

The Infamous1 wrote:All star Teammates
Bird: 3- Parish(84-87), DJ(85), Mchale(84/86-88)
Kobe: 1- Pau(09-10)

That's an argument that goes both ways, because I think that team success is rather irrelevant when you compare individual players, and having other All-Stars on his team may have prevented Bird from having more gaudy volume numbers (not like it proves anything, just sayin'). Kobe's scoring volume would likely go down a bit if he had to play with McHale, Parish and DJ.


So, overall, it's definitely a worthwhile debate - I won't fool myself by saying that it isn't. I even started a thread comparing Bird and Kobe, a few months ago (unable to find it right now, it could bring some good perspective to this debate)

Kobe certainly does have better longevity (Bird played 41329 total RS+PS minutes in his career, Kobe played 48308 between 1999-00 and 2012-13 - that's 6979 more minutes for Bryant, which is more than 2 full 82 game regular seasons at about 38 minutes per game - that's an even bigger edge than Olajuwon has over Bird, though obviously the level of play matters as well, and I'd take some of Hakeem's early seasons over some of Kobe's seasons in the early 2000s, quite easily).
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#99 » by Baller2014 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 11:21 am

GC Pantalones wrote:Yeah but Bird was never in this situation for us to see how he'd respond.

That's because Bird was awesome. Bird came onto a 29 win team and turned them into a 61 win contender. I'm not going to punish prime Bird for having so huge an impact that he literally couldn't exist on a bad team. Kobe could, and how he responded to that is something we should judge him on.

I'm not saying it wasn't Kobe's fault the Lakers sucked or that Kobe was immature back then but the Lakers clearly were starting a rebuild around Kobe. In 05 they only had 2 vets aside from Kobe (Grant and Atkins). The next year they get even younger getting Bynum, Smush and Kwame (with the 24 and 23 year old Smush/Kwame replacing the only old players in the rotation from 05). They also started playing Vujacic and Walton (both were young). In 06 outside of Kobe and Odom (both of who were still young and improving or thought to be improving) nobody had proven themselves in the NBA yet. Doesn't sound like they were trying to win it sounds like they were rebuilding.

The Lakers didn't want to rebuild, and were not trying to rebuild. They thought, like Kobe thought, that they could contend with the team they had. It turned out they, like most people, had vastly overestimated Kobe's impact. In fact 2005 is the beginning of a period where mainstream fans began to radically rethink their opinions about Shaq and Kobe's impact as players. I cover the specific support pieces in the post I linked to, so I won't get into that here, what I will say is that Kobe is the reason they weren't able to get better pieces. He was the one who made the Lakers fire Phil and trade Shaq in a rush, before he would agree to re-sign with them. So to complain that the LA front office let him down is pretty absurd. LA wasn't terribly keen to move Shaq at all (and certainly not in the rush they had to do it). Kobe dropped a bomb, then complained about the mess it made.

I read the post and I'll say the same thing about it I said last time. Kobe could've meshed better in his early years if he knew his place but he was so good that just him being out on the court helped the team in general. Players played better next to Kobe than they did with others because as selfish as he was his game was good enough to shine through it.

I'd say they won in spite of his negatives, just because they were that much more talented than most teams. Without Kobe's negatives they'd have won more, and won more easily, than they did. In a comparison with Bird that hurts him a lot (along with, you know, being a worse player, and having a pretty marginal longevity advantage when you really look at it).
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#100 » by penbeast0 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 12:15 pm

Clyde Frazier wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:OK, a challenge. Give me a reason not to vote for Larry Bird (and for Garnett fans, to support Kevin Garnett over David Robinson other than longevity) . . .


Clarifying something I wasn't sure of before: if we don't vote before a runoff starts, are we able to vote for one of the runoff candidates, or is it only for people who already voted?


Yes, any eligible voter can vote in the runoff.
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