RealGM Top 100 List #10

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#101 » by Texas Chuck » Wed Jul 23, 2014 12:21 pm

therealbig3 wrote:Kevin Garnett gives them the best chance of winning imo, moreso than Duncan and especially Robinson.



You can make that argument against Admiral I guess, but its hard for me to look at the historical record of 4 titles in Duncan's prime and think he's not good at making good teams championship teams. Now he got more chances at it then KG did so we don't know for sure what KG might have achieved in better circumstances, but considering the era KG played in its really hard for me to believe a fair projection is more than what Duncan actually achieved, no?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#102 » by batmana » Wed Jul 23, 2014 12:37 pm

Like in the previous thread, my vote again goes to Larry Bird.
I feel that he is the best player remaining, who peaked the highest as the no.1 player for his team. He was a fantastic leader and routinely made his teammates better, he would also improve any team with his well-rounded game and high basketball IQ.
Bird could be a volume scorer on great efficiency, he is on the shortlist for the greatest shooters ever; he was a great rebounder, a terrific passer, had the nose for the right basketball play on both ends of the floor. He would do anything for the win and didn't care chasing scoring titles, protecting his previous percentages or even getting a quadruple-double (I'm not sure if anyone mentioned it but he had a game with 30 pts, 12 rebs, 10 assists and 9 steals in 3 quarters but the Celtics were winning handily; his coach asked him if he'd like to play for that 10th steal in the 4th and Bird declined http://articles.latimes.com/1985-02-19/sports/sp-456_1_larry-bird). Just consider that this is not a triple-double we're talking about but a quadruple-double that has only been done 4 times officially, and Bird didn't care for it. I don't want to speculate or point fingers but 99% of NBA players would go for that feat if given the chance.
I feel like the next group of players consists of 7-8 guys (Kobe, West, Dirk, Mailman, Moses, Dr.J) who would be very difficult to separate from one another but I feel that Bird is above them easily.
I know it's meaningless and I don't want to change the direction in which this discussion is going but I also want to express my surprise at Hakeem being voted over Bird and also point out that I feel this is a bit of revisionist history - as great as Hakeem was, I doubt he was put in the same class as Bird during his career.

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#103 » by penbeast0 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 12:53 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:Vote #10: Kobe

penbeast0 wrote:OK, a challenge. Give me a reason not to vote for Larry Bird


1) Kobe vs Bird: 9-year prime spans

Regular Season per 100:
80-88 Bird: 31/8/13 on 57% TS 24.2 PER
01-10 Kobe: 38/7/7 on 56% TS 24.6 PER

Playoffs:
80-88 Bird: 28/7/14 on 56% TS 21.9 PER
01-10 Kobe: 36/7/7 on 55% TS 23.5 PER

On a pure production level, Kobe was slighty better than Bird.

2) Playoff record

Career with SRS Advantage:
00-12 Kobe: 20-1
80-90 Bird: 20-5

Kobe's one loss to to a lesser SRS team was in 2011 to Dallas, the eventual champs. Kobe didn't play well dropping 23 ppg on 52% TS.

Bird however lost to a team with lesser SRS 5 out the the 10 years.

1980: The #1 seed Celtics lose 1-4 to the 76ers in the ECF, with Dr. J dropping 25 ppg in the series. Can't blame rookie Bird here that much, and game 3 was pretty epic.

1982: Again, the #1 seed Celtics lose to the 76ers. Bird's shooting was off the mark, 18.3 ppg on 45% TS. He did board & assist well though.

1983: Boston swept by the Bucks. Bird shoots 18.7 ppg, on 45% TS

1988: Detroit finally upsets Boston. McHale drops 27 ppg on 63% TS. Bird shoots 19.8 ppg on 45% TS.

1990: Knicks upset Boston in the 1st round. Bird was good though dropping 24/9/9 on 54% TS.

^
I wanted to get specific so people could understand why SRS/HCA advantage can give a good snapshot of success/failure rates. Bird shot 45% TS in 3 of the 5 losses. When we compare playoff records, and success, the difference is pretty sobering. Especially since no one can say Bird didn't have the same level of support.

3) Longevity

Kobe has a longer Pre-prime/Prime/ and Post-Prime.

4) Offense is a wash, but Kobe has the edge on defense. Bird/Kobe are arguably the two most skilled players ever, but Kobe had superior athleticism which allowed him to do things on the court Bird wasn't capable of.


Have a great deal of respect for Bird, but when we look at the criteria used throughout this project, Kobe has the edge on the majority of things.


Very good post, thanks, especially since eyetest for me, Bird was clearly the better player. How much of Kobe's advantage you list is just that he was more the featured finisher (or selfish shooter) on offense while Bird was more into creating for teams with lots of other scoring options?

Thanks to drza for the excellent post on Garnett v. DRob as well. I have traditionally ranked DRob higher but am probably going to go the other way for longevity to some degree but also because of strong advocacy posting here that is convincing me that Garnett's impact is higher than I thought it was.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#104 » by Quotatious » Wed Jul 23, 2014 12:58 pm

batmana wrote:but I also want to express my surprise at Hakeem being voted over Bird and also point out that I feel this is a bit of revisionist history - as great as Hakeem was, I doubt he was put in the same class as Bird during his career.

You're right - Bird was definitely more highly regarded during their careers, but narrative (rivalry with Magic and Lakers and what was often seen as a toss-up as far as the best player in the league in the 80s) is a big part of that (Hakeem's team were so much less talented than Larry's, it's so obvious) and their absolute primes were about 7/8 years apart, so it's hard to compare. Today, I'd say both are incredibly respected and it depends on who you're asking. Casuals more often point to Bird as the superior player because he's more decorated, has the better narrative (also they often put some kind of an asterisk on 1994 and 1995 Rockets titles because Jordan was retired and then came back a bit rusty in '95, also the Bulls didn't have a starting PF in '95, like no Grant or Rodman). Former players (especially bigs) and more serious analysts often tend to side a bit more with Olajuwon (I'm not necessarily saying that one or the other is correct, though).

As far as revisionist history, it depends how you look at it - sure, you can't change the fact that Bird was considered better between the two in the 80s, and actually the best player in the NBA for a few years (even called the best ever by some), but some of the new tools (advanced stats) show that Hakeem was comparable, or even slightly better at times - like the early 80s Bird vs late 80s Hakeem, where I think that Olajuwon might get the edge, especially in the playoffs), so I don't see anything wrong with that kind of a "revisionist history" (or "retrospective" as a I prefer to call it) - the fact that Bird was considered (and often simply was, by objective measures) the better player in the mid 80s, still stands rather firmly (but it's not exactly surprising - we're comparing Hakeem at the very beginning of his pro career to prime/peak Bird, which isn't exactly fair).

Also, there's the thing about many people being a bit reluctant to give current players (at any particular time that is, so for instance Olajuwon in the mid 90s) over retired, established legends. I think that's why some people still hold on as far as putting LeBron over some of the greats (though again, narrative plays a big role), like Magic, Bird, or even Kobe, who's approaching retirement and obviously has a lot of very passionate supporters.

Anyway, the #9 ballot was pretty close (for a long time I thought that Larry would take it), so let's move on.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#105 » by Baller2014 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 1:00 pm

Some of those teams Bird lost to were better than Kobe's Lakers in 08-10 though. I'm not sure how much shame there is in going down to the Bucks (given how they generally put them down). The 80's Bucks are some of the historically underrated teams of all-time. I'd take even the 1987 Bucks over any team in the NBA from 08-11. The Detroit Pistons of the late 80's would have owned most recent teams, they were that stacked, and when the Celtics finally went down to them in 88 the whole team had fallen off with injuries (even in 87 the injury bug hit the Celtics hard, and they never really recovered as a team).
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#106 » by penbeast0 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 1:03 pm

Baller2014 wrote:I don't think the NBA was irrelevant prior to 1980. If it was I'd hardly have championed Kareem for #2. But the NBA was pretty weaksauce in Pettit's time, and we need to be very cautious about how we reward Pettit for playing well in a weak league. Russell and Wilt were at least transcendent in Pettit's time, but Pettit sure wasn't. He won the title once in a year Russell got hurt, basically a fluke, and was not in the same category of player at all. You want to talk about Oscar around now? Great. I think Dr J has a great case at #11. But Pettit (and even moreso Mikan) are different, they are a long way from being real candidates.

We shouldn't punish players for being born too late either. Pettit wouldn't make the West all-star team last season. I'm worried that you think that's irrelevant.


Hardly a fluke. Especially since you were one of those saying that Russell ranked behind guys like Kareem because he had all those other HOF level players (Cousy/Sharman/Heinsohn/etc.). Pettit singlehandedly took over that final game in his championship year for probably the single most dominant 4th quarter clutch perfomance in the history of NBA basketball.

Pettit was the best player pre-Russell, then led the best of the west through the early years of Russell's career until Jerry West combined with Baylor (and Cliff Hagan's prime tailed off). Should rank higher than Barkley at least since his offensive impact relative to his era was similar but, unlike Barkley, was a solid defender and an outstanding team leader. His abilities look lower because he played through the second greatest change in NBA history, the 59-61 period where the game revolutionized itself . . . and he was pretty much the only great able to still be a true great from before that period to after it.

Your prejudice against pre-1970s players is blinding you to the relatively few true greats of that era, one of whom was Bob Pettit.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#107 » by Baller2014 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 1:11 pm

Russell's support cast was the best relative to what existed at the time is what I said. It was. I also said, simultaneously if you go back and check, that guys like Cousy were overrated and had no place on a top 100 list. That doesn't mean Cousy wasn't still awesome relative to the weaksauce, whitebread league he played in. Here's a picture of the 1958 Hawks team who won the title. The photo is black and white in name only:
Image
When Russell won the title the previous year he was the only black guy on his team. By 1970 blacks were playing 61% of all minutes in the NBA. Things changed a lot during Russell's career, and Pettit's Hawks teams were never champions again, and were pretty meh all things considered. The Hawks didn't really miss him when he missed 30 games in his final year, and they made the 2nd round two years in a row after Pettit retired, and in the 3rd year without Pettit we saw Zelmo Beatty lead the Hawks to a better record than Pettit had ever managed. I seriously question whether Pettit was even better than Zelmo Beatty to be honest. There's no question Pettit would be nothing special in today's game. He was a 6-9 205 pounder, who looked pretty unathletic on tape, shot a horrible efficiency and had numbers which (once adjusted for pace) don't even look special.

I don't even know how to react to your claim Pettit should rank over Barkley, it's so mind boggling to me. Obviously there's nothing more to say beyond directing you to my posts a few pages ago (the ones about not punishing people based on being born later which got liked). Maybe Pettit was a more significant historical figure than Barkley, but I know one thing he wasn't better at; playing basketball.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#108 » by Texas Chuck » Wed Jul 23, 2014 1:26 pm

We get you don't think older generations are as good as today. You don't need to make the same point 7 or 8 times in every single thread.

And you are pushing the edge of racism itt and I think we can and should do better than that. It's fine to point out the change in racial mix, but I find "whitebread" to be an offensive term.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#109 » by penbeast0 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 1:33 pm

Baller2014 wrote:
Clyde Frazier wrote:All i'm saying is that when evaluating these players and their place in history, we can't just look at how they'd translate to today's game. It isn't fair to them, as without them the game wouldn't have evolved into what it is today. At the very least, the impact these players had on the development of the NBA game shouldn't just be brushed aside as insignificant.

Judging players across eras is by no means easy, but a player like pettit who dominated during his era is a clear cut top 50 player of all time in my mind, and I'm not alone in this thinking by any means. I don't know specifically yet where i'll rank him, but he's very clearly to me a top 8 PF of all time.

I couldn't disagree more. It's like me saying "well, look, my cousin's great, great, great uncle was the first guy to come up with the concept of throwing a javelin. Sure, he could only throw it 20 yards, but he was an innovator who was the best in his whole village!" Sorry, but that is not a good argument. The first caveman to make fire with flint was "the first", but that doesn't mean his intellect was on par with Einstein or Newton.

What's unfair is taking points away from players for being born too late.


Newton today would be unable to get a graduate teaching assistant job; he just doesn't know enough physics. Heck, he hasn't even heard of "quantum mechanics" much less have the ability to explain it. So, by your standards, Newton isn't a great scientist because his skill/knowledge set isn't at modern standards. Conversely, a typical grad student in physics today, according to you, would be one of the great scientists of all time in historical terms because you shouldn't discount him for the fact that he's starting with a huge head start on all previous generations.

Much more accurate is the idea that a player should be compared against his peers with some equivalent of standard deviations from the norm being the standard of greatness. Then you discount for smaller player pools (racial barriers, lack of Euro/world player feeds etc.), weaker competition (due to expansion or the like), etc. This does give modern players an advantage; which is appropriate, but doesn't totally discount the accomplishments of great players from the 50s or 60s which you seem to do.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#110 » by Baller2014 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 1:34 pm

Chuck edited out his earlier racism accusation, so I'll drop it, and if the term "whitebread" offends you I won't use it (though it's news to me that it is somehow a racist term). All I'll say is that it's not racist to point out that the NBA was racist at the time. This was discussed in an intelligent and statistically backed up way in earlier threads when Russell was voted in. It's simply factually true. Blacks being excluded (as well as other factors, like the professionalism of the game still being sub-optimal) clearly effected the quality of the league.

I won't harp on it overly, in fact it's barely been discussed since Wilt was voted in at #4, but it's important to point out.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#111 » by mtron929 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 1:39 pm

Baller2014 wrote:Obviously Bird is going to win this, but since Kobe fans are voting for him I'd be thrilled if they could finally address Kobe's negatives. I mean, for me it's enough that Bird was a better player than Kobe by a substantial margin, but when you add in the fact that Kobe was a bad team mate who hindered his teams repeatedly with his baggage, while Bird was the ultimate team mate, it's hard to see how you could go with Kobe. Kobe has some longevity on him (though it's overstated), but given all the other stuff this is clearly Bird.


Basically, Kobe Bryant never possessed the personality to be a great teammate. He would have been happier in a parallel universe where NBA was not a team game but a series of one-on-one tournament, similar to tennis.

Kobe was/is obsessed about his own personal glory and winning was only a means to an end to enhance his legacy. As a result, if I were to take a guess, Kobe might have been the most miserable superstar to win the championships during his three-peat run. He was probably jealous as hell that Shaq was winning all the Finals MVP awards and he was seen as a sidekick. It's like being the singer in the most popular rock band in the world and being miserable that the guitarist was being hailed as the musical genius behind the band.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#112 » by Texas Chuck » Wed Jul 23, 2014 1:47 pm

Baller2014 wrote:Chuck edited out his earlier racism accusation, so I'll drop it, and if the term "whitebread" offends you I won't use it (though it's news to me that it is somehow a racist term).



Well by referencing it you clearly aren't dropping it, are you? I stand by the idea that many of your comments in this project are in fact racist, but did change my wording because I didn't like the tone of my initial wording.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#113 » by ardee » Wed Jul 23, 2014 1:48 pm

Baller2014 wrote:Russell's support cast was the best relative to what existed at the time is what I said. It was. I also said, simultaneously if you go back and check, that guys like Cousy were overrated and had no place on a top 100 list. That doesn't mean Cousy wasn't still awesome relative to the weaksauce, whitebread league he played in. Here's a picture of the 1958 Hawks team who won the title. The photo is black and white in name only:
Image
When Russell won the title the previous year he was the only black guy on his team. By 1970 blacks were playing 61% of all minutes in the NBA. Things changed a lot during Russell's career, and Pettit's Hawks teams were never champions again, and were pretty meh all things considered. The Hawks didn't really miss him when he missed 30 games in his final year, and they made the 2nd round two years in a row after Pettit retired, and in the 3rd year without Pettit we saw Zelmo Beatty lead the Hawks to a better record than Pettit had ever managed. I seriously question whether Pettit was even better than Zelmo Beatty to be honest. There's no question Pettit would be nothing special in today's game. He was a 6-9 205 pounder, who looked pretty unathletic on tape, shot a horrible efficiency and had numbers which (once adjusted for pace) don't even look special.

I don't even know how to react to your claim Pettit should rank over Barkley, it's so mind boggling to me. Obviously there's nothing more to say beyond directing you to my posts a few pages ago (the ones about not punishing people based on being born later which got liked). Maybe Pettit was a more significant historical figure than Barkley, but I know one thing he wasn't better at; playing basketball.


This is such a racist post. Are you trying to imply that the Hawks were somehow worse because they had only Caucasian players?

I come here to debate basketball and I see this crap about ethnicity?

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#114 » by An Unbiased Fan » Wed Jul 23, 2014 1:49 pm

Baller2014 wrote:Obviously Bird is going to win this, but since Kobe fans are voting for him I'd be thrilled if they could finally address Kobe's negatives. I mean, for me it's enough that Bird was a better player than Kobe by a substantial margin, but when you add in the fact that Kobe was a bad team mate who hindered his teams repeatedly with his baggage, while Bird was the ultimate team mate, it's hard to see how you could go with Kobe. Kobe has some longevity on him (though it's overstated), but given all the other stuff this is clearly Bird.

So basically....you're gonna skip over the previous posts comparing Kobe vs Bird, and you want to "finally address Kobe's negatives"...as if you haven't been doing that all project long? :lol:

You say Bird is the better player "by a substantial margin"...but offered zero analysis in your post. Kobe was on par offensively, and better defensively. Kobe had lesser supporting casts, yet better success than Bird. Both were crazy skilled, but Kobe had superior athleticism.

You say Kobe was a bad teammate despite the fact that players have historically played better next to him. Outside Russell, no player has won multiple titles with essentially two different supporting casts. Seems like his teammates do pretty well.

And then you say Kobe's longevity is overstated...how exactly? Again no specifics, just random comments. Kobe was a Top 5 MVP finisher in 11 different seasons. He's All-NBA 1st team 11 times. Say what you want, but that's pretty exceptional longevity.

If this comparison was a random PC board post that had Player A with equal offense/better defense/better longevity/better playoff success, then he would win in a landslide. I'm a fan of Bird, but outside Golden Age narratives, I don't see how he's ahead of Kobe.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#115 » by Baller2014 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 1:57 pm

ardee wrote:This is such a racist post. Are you trying to imply that the Hawks were somehow worse because they had only Caucasian players?

I come here to debate basketball and I see this crap about ethnicity?

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No, I'm saying the previous exclusion of black players, who would represent over 50% of all players less than 10 years later, clearly reduced the quality of the league as a whole. I have no idea how you think such an observation is "racist". If we prevented all white players and foreigners playing in today's NBA the effect would be much the same.

Anyway, done explaining this for now. I have to go to work.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#116 » by ceiling raiser » Wed Jul 23, 2014 2:04 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:You say Bird is the better player "by a substantial margin"...but offered zero analysis in your post. Kobe was on par offensively, and better defensively. Kobe had lesser supporting casts, yet better success than Bird. Both were crazy skilled, but Kobe had superior athleticism.

If this comparison was a random PC board post that had Player A with equal offense/better defense/better longevity/better playoff success, then he would win in a landslide. I'm a fan of Bird, but outside Golden Age narratives, I don't see how he's ahead of Kobe.

Yeah, as I said in the other thread, I'm not comfortable just assuming Kobe's defense is better than Bird's. I feel like I have a good feel for Kobe's defense from watching him since he came into the league, but not Bird's.

I can't comment on Bird's defense personally since I've only seen a bunch of his playoff games, after the fact. If we're going to use defense as the separating factor, we'd better be damn sure that Kobe is a higher impact player than Bird was. The defensive rebounding difference is substantial (and we can't hand-wave it away due to positional differences, since we're not handicapping players on the basis of height), and Bird would be playing the four today (and I know at least a few posters, including myself, are weighting heavily how a guy's game would look today), so I'd be very interested in hearing how he'd stack up on that end at the position.

But yeah, if we are going to mention Kobe at this point in the project on the basis of his defensive advantage over Bird, we really need some in-depth analysis before we can establish that if that was actually the case.

(Note: I don't have a problem with Kobe coming up this early, I just want to be very precise about putting his case together. Tons of new knowledge has been contributed so far, and part of what makes this project so great is the fact that the panel isn't afraid to challenge preconceived notions. ;) )
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#117 » by JordansBulls » Wed Jul 23, 2014 2:24 pm

Code: Select all

 
              HCA(50+)/non-50    Road(50+)/non-50
Bird:         10-6 / 14-1        0-4 / 0-0
Kobe:         18-2 / 7-0         5-5 / 0-0


Playoff Series Record with HCA against teams with a +4 SRS:

Code: Select all

                  W-L   PCT
Kobe 99-11'       12-2  85.7%
Bird 80-91'        6-5  54.5%



Kobe did significantly better with HCA and on the road than Bird did and even if you discount the Shaq years, Kobe was still 12-1 with HCA whereas Bird was 24-7.

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#118 » by ardee » Wed Jul 23, 2014 2:25 pm

Baller2014 wrote:
ardee wrote:This is such a racist post. Are you trying to imply that the Hawks were somehow worse because they had only Caucasian players?

I come here to debate basketball and I see this crap about ethnicity?

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No, I'm saying the previous exclusion of black players, who would represent over 50% of all players less than 10 years later, clearly reduced the quality of the league as a whole. I have no idea how you think such an observation is "racist". If we prevented all white players and foreigners playing in today's NBA the effect would be much the same.

Anyway, done explaining this for now. I have to go to work.


Hilarious. You directly implied in your original post that as minutes played by African-Americans increased and Caucasian minutes decreased, there was a rise in the level of play.

If that doesn't imply that Caucasian players are worse just because they're Caucasian, I don't know what does.

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#119 » by An Unbiased Fan » Wed Jul 23, 2014 2:26 pm

penbeast0 wrote:
Very good post, thanks, especially since eyetest for me, Bird was clearly the better player. How much of Kobe's advantage you list is just that he was more the featured finisher (or selfish shooter) on offense while Bird was more into creating for teams with lots of other scoring options?

I think in general, Kobe and Bird had the same roles for their teams. Both were facilitators, yet also primary offensive scorers. Scoring wise, I just think Kobe was more prolific.

Regular Season Scoring per 100
01-10 Kobe: 37.5 ppg / 56% TS
80-88 Bird: 30.9 ppg / 57% TS

Playoffs Scoring per 100
01-10 Kobe: 35.8 ppg / 55% TS
80-88 Bird: 28.4 ppg / 56% TS

Regular Season AST%
01-10 Kobe: 25.0 AST%
80-88 Bird: 24.0 AST%

Playoff AST%
01-10 Kobe: 24.5 AST%
80-88 Bird: 23.5 AST%

^
Kobe was scoring at a much higher clip, and his AST% was actually higher than Bird's too. This kinda goes back to support levels where Kobe had to carry a bigger load offensively.
7-time RealGM MVPoster 2009-2016
Inducted into RealGM HOF 1st ballot in 2017
The Infamous1
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#120 » by The Infamous1 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 2:27 pm

Bird got into a bar fight in the middle of the 85 playoffs which hurt his hand and causes him to shoot poorly from then on out which resulted in the celtics losing in the finals with HCA for the first time in their history. Could you imagine if that was Kobe(or any modern superstar to be honest)?

Lol there would be all the media talk about how he's not a leader and a poor teammate etc.
We can get paper longer than Pippens arms

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