RealGM Top 100 List #10

[ceiling raiser]

Slightly disappointed there hasn't been more discussion of Dirk here. I guess there's perceived similarity with Bird, but I do think he should be part of the conversation.

I have tons of stuff ready to post in regards Dirk, but have held off because he's not a serious candidate yet. I still don't have any idea how KG can even be discussed without discussing Dirk, but I got to hand it to the KG guys by focusing their comparisons on Duncan it has the effect of elevating him above the pack. Not sure that was intentional, but it definitely had that effect.

But Dirk and KG's careers nearly overlap--KG starts a little earlier and they played a lot of prime in the same conference at the same time. Seems only natural to discuss both if we discuss one, but I also know I have a Dirk-bias and maybe only a small minority see Dirk as being on the same tier as KG and thus they don't see the need.

Maybe by the next thread tho I will start interjecting some Dirk stuff.

Looking forward to it.

Truthfully, I don't think there's much separating a lot of these elite bigs (Duncan, Shaq, Hakeem, Dirk, KG, Robinson). Just my opinion though. Any new analysis comparing these guys in any way is always welcome IMO.

[Baller2014]

I think I've talked myself into KG over Dr J for the next vote, but I'm not quite ready to consider Dirk yet.

[trex_8063]

I think I've talked myself into KG over Dr J for the next vote, but I'm not quite ready to consider Dirk yet.

Yeah, me too. Or I should say other people have talked me into moving KG ahead of Dr. J (as well as perhaps 1-3 others). Still not willing to move him ahead of Bird for #10, though.

Edit: Just went back to peek at what Doctor MJ's pre-list project top 50 looked like. So far, this project's results have been fairly consistent with that. KG came in #13 there; we'll see where he ends up on this one.....

[andrewww]

I have tons of stuff ready to post in regards Dirk, but have held off because he's not a serious candidate yet. I still don't have any idea how KG can even be discussed without discussing Dirk, but I got to hand it to the KG guys by focusing their comparisons on Duncan it has the effect of elevating him above the pack. Not sure that was intentional, but it definitely had that effect.

But Dirk and KG's careers nearly overlap--KG starts a little earlier and they played a lot of prime in the same conference at the same time. Seems only natural to discuss both if we discuss one, but I also know I have a Dirk-bias and maybe only a small minority see Dirk as being on the same tier as KG and thus they don't see the need.

Maybe by the next thread tho I will start interjecting some Dirk stuff.

After the run-off between Bird/Kobe, there's a slew of candidates eligible for discussion.

2-way big:: KG/Admiral
Scoring big: KMalone/Dirk/Barkley/Moses/Pettit
2-way wing: Erving
2-way guard: West
Offensive guard: Oscar

[Baller2014]

I think it's unbelievably unlikely Bird is in a runoff with Kobe. I think the more likely outcome is Bird wins by a landslide, then we discuss the slew of other candidates (KG, the Malones, Dr J, Kobe, West, Oscar, etc).

[Quotatious]

Why isn't Oscar getting more traction? Anyone willing to compare him to Bird, KG, Kobe etc. ? Honestly, I'm not sure anymore who I'll vote with, so I'm considering all possibilities. I guess I could go with Garnett, but will have to decide how I feel about his defense vs Bird or Kobe offense (though I can see a pretty great case for him).

[Reservoirdawgs]

Slightly disappointed there hasn't been more discussion of Dirk here. I guess there's perceived similarity with Bird, but I do think he should be part of the conversation.

I have tons of stuff ready to post in regards Dirk, but have held off because he's not a serious candidate yet. I still don't have any idea how KG can even be discussed without discussing Dirk, but I got to hand it to the KG guys by focusing their comparisons on Duncan it has the effect of elevating him above the pack. Not sure that was intentional, but it definitely had that effect.

But Dirk and KG's careers nearly overlap--KG starts a little earlier and they played a lot of prime in the same conference at the same time. Seems only natural to discuss both if we discuss one, but I also know I have a Dirk-bias and maybe only a small minority see Dirk as being on the same tier as KG and thus they don't see the need.

Maybe by the next thread tho I will start interjecting some Dirk stuff.

I'm posting on my iPad so I can't get too much into the stats (UBF, I have not forgotten your post, I'll get to it tomorrow) but I expect to get into KG vs Dirk very soon as it looks like Bird is going to win this and I have KG and Dirk as my #11 and #12 (which will probably change for KG, as I believe the pro-KG group has convinced me to put him in my Top 10). While KG and Duncan have historically been the comparison due to them hitting the league around the same time, playing the same position, and being more defensively dominated players, I have always viewed Dirk and KG as a better comparison due to their perception as "career losers" and "soft" being more of a lazy analysis and narrative-driven analysis than objectively reviewing their careers with team context.


Sent from my iPad using RealGM Forums

[Purch]

I have tons of stuff ready to post in regards Dirk, but have held off because he's not a serious candidate yet. I still don't have any idea how KG can even be discussed without discussing Dirk, but I got to hand it to the KG guys by focusing their comparisons on Duncan it has the effect of elevating him above the pack. Not sure that was intentional, but it definitely had that effect.

But Dirk and KG's careers nearly overlap--KG starts a little earlier and they played a lot of prime in the same conference at the same time. Seems only natural to discuss both if we discuss one, but I also know I have a Dirk-bias and maybe only a small minority see Dirk as being on the same tier as KG and thus they don't see the need.

Maybe by the next thread tho I will start interjecting some Dirk stuff.

After the run-off between Bird/Kobe, there's a slew of candidates eligible for discussion.

2-way big:: KG/Admiral
Scoring big: KMalone/Dirk/Barkley
2-way wing: Erving
2-way guard: West
Offensive guard: Oscar

Karl Malone isn't a just a scoring big, he was top 10 in defensive wins shares for 13 seasons. He's number 6 all time in defensive win shares.

Hes a 2 way big, much better than Dirk and Barkley on that end. He was above averge on that end of the floor. Obviously he wasnt anchoring entire defenses at that hight, but he played both ends effectively

[Texas Chuck]

Agree with Q here. I think Oscar should be getting more love here. I'm still leaning Bird here, but I'd love to hear a case for Oscar because I think he's the best of the next trio of guards(Oscar,West,Kobe). I'll probably start posting some Oscar stuff soon as well.

[ronnymac2]

I don't know. I'm finding it very easy to throw my vote to KG here. I've always thought Kobe was better based on a personal preference for the offensive guy over the defensive guy, but now I'm starting to think Garnett may have been a slightly more useful 5 vs. 5 basketball player. Bird's peak is the best left, but his longevity leaves an opening for others. And then there's Karl Malone.

Comparing KG to Kobe pre-05 is tough, but from there you have both on crappy teams circa 05-07. KG misses the playoffs all 3 years, while Kobe makes it in 06 & 07. If KG's impact is greater, why would the Wolves do worse. Then you have both on reloaded squads in 08', and Kobe has 2 titles/3 Finals to KG's 1 title/2 Finals.

I just don't see KG's case above Kobe. I think he may have longevity on DRob, and Dirk is a great debate.

Here's my problem with that line of thinking though. That assumes they each had the same supporting cast. In my opinion, they don't. Kobe had a very good prime Lamar Odom in 2006 and 2007. KG's most talented teammate was Ricky Davis, an utterly useless player when it comes to 5 vs. 5 basketball. Kobe also had Phil coaching the team.

This isn't to denigrate Kobe. I think Kobe maximized the mediocre talent he had around him, and I highly doubt anybody gets to the second round in 2006 and 2007 with those Lakers. Kobe was wonderful. But to put the blame on KG when he had a truly horrific supporting cast doesn't make sense to me.

Mind you, I think the only years where KG had horrific supporting casts were '05-'07. Before that, I think MIN did a decent job putting players around him with Flip.

[microfib4thewin]

For me, the biggest problem in judging KG as a playoff performer is that most of his playoff games were played when he was past his prime, so he's under less scrutiny as Purch have mentioned in the last thread. I also believe that the role KG has played in Minnesota and Boston are very different and we should not treat Minny KG and Boston KG as the same thing(i.e. insert Minny KG in 2008-2013 Boston and expect the same or better result). Speaking on individual numbers, Boston KG was nowhere near Minny KG as a rebounder, and after 2008 his ast% has also dropped to the point that old KG becomes incomparable to young KG. Speaking on team performance, Boston KG's defensive impact actually resulted in his team playing great defense, but his offensive impact was not felt as Boston dipped in offensive efficiency as time went on for the Big 3 Celtics. They were 15th in 2010, 18th in 2011, 27th in 2012, and 24th in 2013. Minny KG was the other way around. They consistently had good offensive teams but the defense was mediocre. KG having consistent impact(in terms of how he helps his team and not level per se) would be more believable if the KG Wolves and the Big 3 Celtics were similar, but the Wolves were pretty much an inferior version of Bizarro Celtics.

I also question how neutral RAPM really is at judging KG, or just any star for that matter who kept getting terrible teammates year after year. I am no expert at RAPM, but how does it adjust KG's terrible teammates and theoretically turn them into neutral players to conclude KG's impact? Even within just the context of RAPM, while KG's PI RAPM has been steadily at the top his NPI RAPM was all over the place, I haven't double checked the numbers yet, but I don't think KG was even top 100 in 2005 and 2006. I know that NPI has more noise than PI, but should we not expect KG's NPI RAPM to not go from top 5 to outside of top 100 within the span of a year if we were to argue that KG's high impact is consistent?

I do think the pro-KG arguments are done much better than the arguments I've seen for the other players, but I still have question marks on how solid those arguments are.

[Purch]

Also, whiles we're talking about candidates can someone explain to me why Robinson is considered a better player than Moses? I mean he Litteraly has outperformed nearly all the top centers of his time in his 82 season

[ronnymac2]

KG backers — What do you think of 2006 as KG's peak btw? He had his best year ever in terms of field goal percentage (As a Wolf) and foul draw rate while still maintaining a rebound rate approaching 20 and all-nba defense? I know 2003, 2004 and 2008 get the hype, but what about '06?

[acrossthecourt]

Post offense is being overrated here. Know what happens when Duncan's usage rate drops by 3 points and his minutes decrease by 300? The team goes from 9th in offensive efficiency to 2nd.

Plus Duncan was voted in a while ago. If Garnett doesn't match up with Duncan, that's okay, because we're talking about 10th or 11th here....

Dirk's TS%, by the way, drops in the playoffs too. Kobe's does too.

[Warspite]

Most of todays players couldnt play in the 60s. They lack the stamina to play at that pace and they cant dribble the basketball per 60s rules. All players from today would automaticly be terrible 3pt shooters as well.

[cut]

How players play translate from one era to another is worthless. You can only compare what they did vs their own peers. Im not sure Pettit is a top 20 player but I believe Mikan is.

Couldn't disagree more. Mikan a top 20 and pettit not? Most of today's players couldn't play in the 60s? Can you please explain why they couldn't, other than "they lack stamina"?

They travel or carry the ball 99% of the time. Todays players play in a sprinters league. They are explosive but need game breaks in the game. That is not the 1960s. A player in that era needs the training of a long distance runner. Most likely the shedding of about 15-20% body mass. Todays players would be viewed as fat, out of shape and overweight. In an era in which explosiveness is is not as important and without a 3pt line todays players would really struggle playing by 1960s rules.

Of course many of them would take a season or 2 and adjust to rules changes and be fine just like Pettit would take a season or 2 to adjust to today and be fine.


Pettit vs Mikan

Mikan IMHO has a greater historical impact. 5 Championships, best scorer and rebounder of his era. If you pace adjust his stats they look like they are from NBA2k. Without Mikan there is no NBA or Madison Square Garden or Boston Garden and there is no Wilt, Russell, KAJ, Shaq.

Mikan invented many of the drills that we use today and he is the founder of the ABA. Mikan invented the 3pt line and he is the single reason that players can dunk the basketball. He stood against its banning in the late 60s.

I will admit that Mikans career lacks longevity but he was the best player in the world every yr he played until he retired.

Both Pettit and Mikan retired as the all time leader in scoring and rebounding. I believe the difference between them is domination. Pettit is much more like K Malone while Mikan is Shaq.

There was a time when Pettit was in my top 20 but players like Dirk, Kobe and LBJ have moved him out.

[Purch]

Post offense is being overrated here. Know what happens when Duncan's usage rate drops by 3 points and his minutes decrease by 300? The team goes from 9th in offensive efficiency to 2nd.

Plus Duncan was voted in a while ago. If Garnett doesn't match up with Duncan, that's okay, because we're talking about 10th or 11th here....

Dirk's TS%, by the way, drops in the playoffs too. Kobe's does too.

I don't know what specifically Youre talking about. But I can almost guarantee you with the away the spurs have evolved over the years, and flipped role players their were other significant factors impacting that change. Just like when Parker and Manu stepped up.

[An Unbiased Fan]

I don't know. I'm finding it very easy to throw my vote to KG here. I've always thought Kobe was better based on a personal preference for the offensive guy over the defensive guy, but now I'm starting to think Garnett may have been a slightly more useful 5 vs. 5 basketball player. Bird's peak is the best left, but his longevity leaves an opening for others. And then there's Karl Malone.

Comparing KG to Kobe pre-05 is tough, but from there you have both on crappy teams circa 05-07. KG misses the playoffs all 3 years, while Kobe makes it in 06 & 07. If KG's impact is greater, why would the Wolves do worse. Then you have both on reloaded squads in 08', and Kobe has 2 titles/3 Finals to KG's 1 title/2 Finals.

I just don't see KG's case above Kobe. I think he may have longevity on DRob, and Dirk is a great debate.

Here's my problem with that line of thinking though. That assumes they each had the same supporting cast. In my opinion, they don't. Kobe had a very good prime Lamar Odom in 2006 and 2007. KG's most talented teammate was Ricky Davis, an utterly useless player when it comes to 5 vs. 5 basketball. Kobe also had Phil coaching the team.

This isn't to denigrate Kobe. I think Kobe maximized the mediocre talent he had around him, and I highly doubt anybody gets to the second round in 2006 and 2007 with those Lakers. Kobe was wonderful. But to put the blame on KG when he had a truly horrific supporting cast doesn't make sense to me.

Mind you, I think the only years where KG had horrific supporting casts were '05-'07. Before that, I think MIN did a decent job putting players around him with Flip.

I actually would add Wally to the Minny mix. His PER production was just as good as Odom's. Lamar had the big name, but put up an average of 16.8 PER from 05-07.

I guess I'm trying to see how KG's skillset/strengths outweighs Kobe's. With Kobe he can make crappy teams into good offensive squads, but KG's defense doesn't' seem to equalize that effect.

06 Lakers = #8 Offense(playoffs)
07 Lakers = #7 Offense(playoffs)

06 Minny = #10 Defense
07 Minny = #21 Defense

This also goes to playoff performances where Kobe's offense was critical to long successful runs, while KG's defense didn't seem to overtake teams at the same rate.

[acrossthecourt]

I also question how neutral RAPM really is at judging KG, or just any star for that matter who kept getting terrible teammates year after year. I am no expert at RAPM, but how does it adjust KG's terrible teammates and theoretically turn them into neutral players to conclude KG's impact? Even within just the context of RAPM, while KG's PI RAPM has been steadily at the top his NPI RAPM was all over the place, I haven't double checked the numbers yet, but I don't think KG was even top 100 in 2005 and 2006. I know that NPI has more noise than PI, but should we not expect KG's NPI RAPM to not go from top 5 to outside of top 100 within the span of a year if we were to argue that KG's high impact is consistent?

I do think the pro-KG arguments are done much better than the arguments I've seen for the other players, but I still have question marks on how solid those arguments are.

What do you mean? It's pretty straight forward. If the four guys in your lineup are -1, -1. -1, and -1, but that lineup scores at +5 rate, then Garnett is +6. That's the basis of it, but it's adjusted for your opponents, there are thousands of possessions, etc.

Garnett's second best year by RAPM ever was when he had better teammates in 2008, so I don't think that argument holds any merit either.

And if you think the NPI argument holds any merit, consider that in a 10 year study (all ten seasons are taken together, so there are no errors with a prior influencing the model) he was second overall (had a pretty good lead) at +8.

edit: The 14 year RAPM study, 2001 to 2014, has Garnett first, even over LeBron, at +9.4. Let's bury this NPI argument please.

Post offense is being overrated here. Know what happens when Duncan's usage rate drops by 3 points and his minutes decrease by 300? The team goes from 9th in offensive efficiency to 2nd.

Plus Duncan was voted in a while ago. If Garnett doesn't match up with Duncan, that's okay, because we're talking about 10th or 11th here....

Dirk's TS%, by the way, drops in the playoffs too. Kobe's does too.

I don't know what specifically Youre talking about. But I can almost guarantee you with the away the spurs have evolved over the years, and flipped role players their were other significant factors impacting that change. Just like when Parker and Manu stepped up.

That was in 2011 long after Parker and Manu arrived.

[Texas Chuck]

Post offense is being overrated here. Know what happens when Duncan's usage rate drops by 3 points and his minutes decrease by 300? The team goes from 9th in offensive efficiency to 2nd.

Plus Duncan was voted in a while ago. If Garnett doesn't match up with Duncan, that's okay, because we're talking about 10th or 11th here....

Dirk's TS%, by the way, drops in the playoffs too. Kobe's does too.

Please don't attempt to mislead like this:

Dirk RS TS% .582
Dirk PS TS% .579

And if you compare it to league average his relative TS% goes up in the post-season.

[ShaqAttack3234]

This has to be Bird. Honestly, I have him closer to 5 than 10. He has one of the great primes from about '84 or '85 to '88. I personally think he deserved 4 MVPs in those 5 years. One of the great shooters and scorers, probably the greatest passing forward of all-time, arguably the greatest rebounding small forward, great off the ball player, very good post game, as good of an off hand as anyone I can think of, and despite being a mediocre man defender, he was an excellent team defender.