Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 4

[dckingsfan]

But $15 million/yr for Parsons, even for only 3 years, is pretty bad.

I agree Dallas overpaid for Parsons, but perhaps not as much as it might appear at first glance. Last season, the payroll cost of an NBA win was about $1.65 million. By my reckoning, Chandler's production last season was worth 7.2 wins -- about $11.9 million. My salary formula (which works differently) estimates his value at $11.4 million. Definitely an overpay, but Parsons also isn't 26 yet, so there's still potential for improvement. And, if the cap rises as much as expected, his production-to-salary gap may narrow.

The team that did well in all this was Houston. In Ariza, they got a better version of Chandler for a lot less money.

I don't agree. Parsons is better. But it does depend on what you need. Parson can dribble and create. Now if HOU is going to run everything through Harden so they dont need another ball handler and that works. Great. If not. They are screwed.

I have HOU dropping and DAL replacing them at top 4

Two sides of the ball - Ariza is a superior defender - that showed especially in the playoffs. Ariza having Dwight behind him is going to cause all sorts of trouble.

[nate33]

Would we rather have Love in Chicago or in Cleveland?

Chicago.

LeBron, Kyrie and Love are gonna be real good for a real long time - almost unbeatable once they put the appropriate defensive role players around them.

Love plus Noah will be very good, but they're not unbeatable unless Rose regains his peak form, which I think is unlikely.

[closg00]

The Bulls made a smart play by offering potential white stars/talent to replace Love (don't scoff at the possibility considering the Minny market)
Gibson could fill the role of rebounder. Mitroic was one of the best Euro players and he has some value. The Bulls could survive giving those guys up no-problem.


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[LyricalRico]

Would we rather have Love in Chicago or in Cleveland?

Chicago.

LeBron, Kyrie and Love are gonna be real good for a real long time - almost unbeatable once they put the appropriate defensive role players around them.

Love plus Noah will be very good, but they're not unbeatable unless Rose regains his peak form, which I think is unlikely.

Agree, especially since CHI would also be giving up guys they likely would still need in their rotation even with Love on the roster IMO. However, CLE already doesn't rely on Bennett for anything, and they already have the best player in the world playing the same position as Wiggins.

So yeah - definitely hope Flip takes the Bulls offer instead of Cleveland's.

[Nivek]

Would we rather have Love in Chicago or in Cleveland?

Chicago.

LeBron, Kyrie and Love are gonna be real good for a real long time - almost unbeatable once they put the appropriate defensive role players around them.

Love plus Noah will be very good, but they're not unbeatable unless Rose regains his peak form, which I think is unlikely.

Agree all the way around. There haven't been many players to miss as much time due to injury as Rose has, but the history of those players wasn't pretty when I looked at the issue a few years ago (because of Arenas). If I recall correctly, the "good-to-great player returning from two years or more out due to injury list" consisted of Bill Walton, Grant Hill, Bernard King, and maybe another player or two whose names aren't coming to mind. As I recall, the production drop-off was about 30% on average in their first year back. That's 30% from final full(ish) season.

In Rose's case, that's a PPA of 181 (where average is 100 and higher is better). If the rule of thumb is a 30% reduction, he'd post a PPA of 125-130, which is ok, but not All-NBA level (or even All-Star level). PGs in that PPA vicinity last season: Rubio, Patty Mills, Jeff Teague, George Hill, Kemba Walker.

[dckingsfan]

I might add, I think that Chicago will be very strong without Love. I watch a lot of Euro basketball and Mirotic is going to be very good - I think he will surprise.

PG Rose Hinrich
SG Butler Dunleavy
SF McDermott Snell
PF Mirotic Gibson
C Noah Gasol

Is very deep for a Thibodeau team. And they stay very young, which bodes well over the long-term.

Edit: And they are at $65,235,798 on the cap, so they could be flexible come the trade deadline. I would think that they would want to go after Bledsoe before Love...

[closg00]

Just read that only $250,000 of the 2nd year of Booker's contract is guaranteed.


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[verbal8]

Just read that only $250,000 of the 2nd year of Booker's contract is guaranteed.


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I would rather have kept him on a similar deal than having Seraphin on his QO.

[fishercob]

Would we rather have Love in Chicago or in Cleveland?

Chicago.

LeBron, Kyrie and Love are gonna be real good for a real long time - almost unbeatable once they put the appropriate defensive role players around them.

Love plus Noah will be very good, but they're not unbeatable unless Rose regains his peak form, which I think is unlikely.

Agree all the way around. There haven't been many players to miss as much time due to injury as Rose has, but the history of those players wasn't pretty when I looked at the issue a few years ago (because of Arenas). If I recall correctly, the "good-to-great player returning from two years or more out due to injury list" consisted of Bill Walton, Grant Hill, Bernard King, and maybe another player or two whose names aren't coming to mind. As I recall, the production drop-off was about 30% on average in their first year back. That's 30% from final full(ish) season.

In Rose's case, that's a PPA of 181 (where average is 100 and higher is better). If the rule of thumb is a 30% reduction, he'd post a PPA of 125-130, which is ok, but not All-NBA level (or even All-Star level). PGs in that PPA vicinity last season: Rubio, Patty Mills, Jeff Teague, George Hill, Kemba Walker.

Agreed. What is promising is that Chicago's purported offer of Gibson, Mirotic and McDermott trumps Cleveland's in my mind. I'd love to know what YODA says on Wiggins and Mirotic, but my hunch is that the latter has close to the former's upside (whether either reach it is anyone's guess). Gibson (and McDermott) help them stay relevant now, while Mirotic (and McDermott) are strong pieces moving forward.

[fishercob]

So Jameer Nelson is close to signing in Dallas. Add him to Devin Harris, Felton and Gal Mekel who all have guaranteed contracts.

This would take Mo Williams out of the mix. I know he'd want more minutes and money than we have, but he'd be a nice fit here.

Shannon Brown is also available. I'd be fine with him at the minimum as a backup 2 and emergency PG.

[closg00]

Ray Allen teaming-up again with LeBron, ahh shyt

[closg00]

Just how badly did EG bungle the entire 2011 draft? The 23rd pick in that draft (Nikola Mirotic) is one of the best Euros and can be offered in a trade w/o laughter. 23rd pick a possible trade piece for Love, all-three of our 2011 picks are not on an NBA team currently.

More on Nikola. The Bulls had a vision, patience, and better talent evaluation.
http://hoopshype.com/articles/hoopshype ... ba-history

[payitforward]

Wow. DAL dissing Shawn after all these years.

So where do he land.

I'm not seeing the open on most teams.

Laker ?

Still plays at a very high level, but I wonder what salary he'll command. He'd fit here absolutely perfectly! Join the AARP bunch -- but we don't have room, and anyway I suppose we can't sign *all* of these type guys! Got to leave some for other teams.

[dckingsfan]

Ray Allen teaming-up again with LeBron, ahh shyt

Eh... Irving, Miller, Allen, Love - those 3 point shooters aren't that good surrounding Lebron.

[payitforward]

... Houston. In Ariza, they got a better version of Chandler for a lot less money.

How many wins was Ariza worth last year?

I had him at 8.1. The Wins Produced metric said 13+, if I recall correctly.

Yes. http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/teams/was

[dckingsfan]

How many wins was Ariza worth last year?

I had him at 8.1. The Wins Produced metric said 13+, if I recall correctly.

Yes. http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/teams/was

Great chart for those that think that Porter/Rice will somehow be better than Webster

[payitforward]

To take a couple of your posts together:

Rubio is going to be better or is better then a lot give him credit.... But the kid has tools.

You are so right! His critics underrate him because of something he can't do (i.e. shoot). But if you look at what he actually does do, he does it so well that he's still one of the top PGs in the league.

But, here...

...Parsons is better (than Ariza). ...Parsons can dribble and create.

...you are doing more or less the same thing Rubio's critics do! I.e. what makes Ariza better than Parsons (in current production -- Parsons is younger and has more upside of course) is, as I wrote above, "what he actually does do, he does it so well that he's still one of the top SFs in the league." Now, if you are right that some credit for his production should go to Wall instead of him, then we'll see something to indicate that this season.

Still, you have to measure productivity against cost. Ariza costs @ 1/2 what Parsons will cost.

Actually, Houston's decision to *sign* Ariza was rather like our decision to let him walk! For the $8m we'd have paid him, we got Pierce and Humphries (i.e. more productivity per $$ spent).

[fishercob]

I had him at 8.1. The Wins Produced metric said 13+, if I recall correctly.

Yes. http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/teams/was

Great chart for those that think that Porter/Rice will somehow be better than Webster

You only get to cite it as support for an argument if you can explain what it actually means.

[payitforward]

Just how badly did EG bungle the entire 2011 draft? The 23rd pick in that draft (Nikola Mirotic) is one of the best Euros and can be offered in a trade w/o laughter. 23rd pick a possible trade piece for Love, all-three of our 2011 picks are not on an NBA team currently.

More on Nikola. The Bulls had a vision, patience, and better talent evaluation.
http://hoopshype.com/articles/hoopshype ... ba-history

You don't understand, man -- they picked #23. They had no chance at a guy like Vesely.

In any case, at #18 (where we picked Singleton) I'd certainly have taken Faried over Mirotic.

[dckingsfan]

Yes. http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/teams/was

Great chart for those that think that Porter/Rice will somehow be better than Webster

You only get to cite it as support for an argument if you can explain what it actually means.

Here you go fish... http://wagesofwins.com/how-to-calculate-wins-produced/

Edit: It means that last year Porter and Rice had a net negative effect on wins produced by the Wizards and Webster had a large net positive effect. Making the assumption that Porter and Rice will make the jump to Webster's production of last year is wishful thinking.