RealGM Top 100 List #10

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#321 » by therealbig3 » Thu Jul 24, 2014 4:03 am

ElGee wrote:
fpliii wrote:Truthfully, I don't think there's much separating a lot of these elite bigs (Duncan, Shaq, Hakeem, Dirk, KG, Robinson). Just my opinion though. Any new analysis comparing these guys in any way is always welcome IMO.


The difference for me is one of them isn't very good at defense, and he occupies a spot on the floor that is capable of exerting large defensive impact. Otherwise, no, not huge differences peak to peak or prime to prime...


Well, Shaq wasn't exactly a defensive phenom for quite a few years, he was just that good offensively.

Dirk's the same way. And his defense isn't even bad either, it's actually clearly above average when you consider his strong man to man post defense, his IQ, his quick hands, and his defensive rebounding. He's just not the help defender that Duncan, Hakeem, KG, and Robinson are...that's ok, not a lot of people in NBA history are.

Where Dirk does exert tremendous impact is offensively, and he's an aberration among big men when it comes to that side of the floor...he legitimately has elite guard-level impact on offense. I think his offense compares quite favorably to peak Wade or peak Bryant. And he's sustained it for such a long period of time...he's put together quite a tremendous career imo, and I'm strongly considering voting for him soon.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#322 » by ronnymac2 » Thu Jul 24, 2014 4:19 am

Vote: Larry Bird

One of the all-time great defensive rebounders in the playoffs with excellent awareness and post defense. I also feel he's the best offensive player left. Started off feasting on the offensive glass and playing an off-ball role. Then he became a volume scoring super shooter...in an off-ball role! I just look at what Ray Allen can do for an offense even when he shoots 3/8 from downtown. Add Kidd's passing and creativity and that's 95% of Larry Bird's offense. He's maybe the GOAT at making a simple swing pass, and as I always say, swing passes make champions.

Swing passes and closeouts are the most important plays in basketball. I trust Larry Bird to help me do that for 11 GOAT prime years.

I must say, Karl Malone and Kevin Garnett made me really think about this. Especially Malone. But I'm cool with my vote.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#323 » by DannyNoonan1221 » Thu Jul 24, 2014 4:19 am

fpliii wrote:Why, if the shot clock was implemented in 1954? :wink:


Hahaha Fair enough. bad mistake on my part. I kept using "60s" to refer to older times, but with Mikan in the discussion was referring to long-ago basketball, 1940s, 50s, 60s.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#324 » by Clyde Frazier » Thu Jul 24, 2014 4:20 am

magicmerl wrote:
Larry Bird
Am I being star struck by his multiple championships to want to vote him in #9? I see posts about his defense and while there's no doubt that he was a very intelligent player (and I think that is a valuable and underrated intangible), he also possessed distinct physical limitations that ultimately hurt his career. There's a lot of anecdotal evidence of him shooting only left handed for whole games at a time simply because the game was too easy for him, and there's no doubt that things like that will hurt his career TS%, but I'm still going to hold that against him. He projects as one of the better offensive players in this bunch, and one of the better defenders too, for all that he's not crushing the field in either. His net rating (ORtg - DRtg) is second only to David Robinsons. Yet he has the lowest WS total of anybody in this group.


The main thing going against bird is obviously longevity, so he's likely going to have the lowest win shares of the bunch. Let's look at WS/48 min for these players' reg season and playoff careers:

Barkley -- .216 / .193
Robinson -- .25 (!) / .199
Garnett -- .185 / .149
Dirk -- .208 / .196
Malone -- .205 / .14
Bird -- .203 / .173
Erving -- ABA: .217 / .243, NBA: .178 / .149, ABA/NBA: .192 / .176
Oscar -- .207 / .178
Kobe -- .182 / .157

He's right there with the rest of the pack. I think this is a more balanced way of looking at WS given the huge sample size we have.

I've always thought i valued longevity more than the average fan (granted, the majority of the PC board posters aren't avg fans). I'm still pretty surprised at how critical people have been of magic and bird's longevity as it relates to the rankings. Both players still played full careers in the sense that a good NBA career is 10+ seasons. The amount they accomplished in that period speaks for itself.

I'm not really in this to obsess over the rankings. Just as we're rounding out the top 10, i've gained quite a bit of knowledge and my perspective has definitely changed on certain players to a degree. It's just hard to believe that bird may actually rank outside the top 10.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#325 » by Moonbeam » Thu Jul 24, 2014 4:28 am

My vote is for Larry Bird. I voted for him for #9 and will leave my arguments in a spoiler.

Spoiler:
My main contenders for this vote are Larry Bird, Julius Erving, Hakeem Olajuwon, Oscar Robertson, and Jerry West.

Based solely on statistics, my formula offers Jerry West as the clear winner, followed by Dr. J, Bird and Oscar in quick succession, and then Hakeem. I'm a big stats buy, but my vote is for Larry Bird. His addition to the Celtics was the key factor in taking a franchise that had won less than 40% of its games the previous two seasons to 9 straight years of winning at least 1 round in the playoffs, including 3 titles and 5 Finals appearances. His emergence as a star ensured that Boston had another era of dominance. While Jerry West had a likewise massive impact on the establishing the Lakers as consistent contenders in Los Angeles, I feel that his road to consistent deep playoff appearances was generally easier than Bird's despite not having the same caliber of teammates overall early on. This is a tough choice, though, and I could be swayed.

Dr. J is a tough call. Many of his best years were played in the ABA, making for a difficult comparison with the others. While the ABA began as clearly a second-tier league, it bridged the gap to finish, and when Dr. J was having his best seasons, the ABA was at its strongest. His play appears to have dipped a bit during his first 3 years with Philadelphia, but his impact was still quite palpable, as Philadelphia went from just having made the playoffs for the first time in 5 years to a Finals appearance in 1977, and they remained contenders with him at the helm until winning in 1983 once Bobby Jones, Maurice Cheeks, Andrew Toney, and Moses Malone had come aboard. If I have to nitpick a bit, I'd argue that Bird was more of the focal point in Boston's 3 title runs than Dr. J was in 1983, and that is really the only point that separates them for me.

Hakeem obviously had a mesmerizing peak in the mid-90s, and I feel as a GOAT-caliber defender his statistical ranking is undersold, but his teams were too often bounced before the second round for me to place him over Bird (or West). Oscar Robertson obviously had awe-inspiring statistics as well, but the relative lack of postseason success likewise applies. I generally feel that titles are overrated, but in separating five candidates that I regard to be on the same tier, postseason success offers some guidance.


I have yet to read through all the comments, but it seems that KG, Dirk, Karl Malone, David Robinson, Charles Barkley, and Kobe Bryant are also receiving some consideration for #10 or #11. I'll be eager to read through those arguments. As it stands, I'm leaning toward Jerry West for #11. His statistical impact is pretty incredible, and if we're willing to excuse Wilt of some of his difficulty overcoming the Celtics and place him #4, I think Jerry West also should get some of the same leniency.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#326 » by Texas Chuck » Thu Jul 24, 2014 4:34 am

Official Vote: Larry Legend

I'll admit to being a big longevity guy so I realize in taking Bird here I must believe he is really special to get my vote over the likes of KG/Malone/Kobe/Dirk.

And I do. Again I'll note based solely on my personal eye test(which admittedly is of limited value and of none to anyone but me) he's the best overall player I've ever seen.

He's a true genius of the game along with Russell and Magic except Bird's genius is everywhere not primarily defensive like Bill or primarily offensive like Magic. Only Kidd comes close to matching Bird in this regard imo and he isn't close to Bird from a talent perspective. And not only did he show this as a player he's one of the few greats who was a good coach and executive as well.(not that Im crediting him for any of that here mind you)

Bird was a great shooter, scorer, passer, rebounder, and a good defender. And while his playoff reputation isnt the greatest, he's still a guy who made big-time plays to close out the biggest of games.

I know this forum frowns on box scores but its hard to ignore a guy whose career numbers are 24/10/6 with 2.5 combined blocks/steals on 50/38/89 and that's with Bird basically ignoring the 3-pt line for much of his peak. He's essentially a 50/40/90 guy for his career!

Anyway I have to give reasons so I gave a few. Other guys have posted better arguments but this post is not intended as an argument(none of my vote posts will be--FYI)
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#327 » by Purch » Thu Jul 24, 2014 4:38 am

Again you're overlooking the main issue here. I have 0 problem with seeing a two percent drop in post season shooting efficency in certain years. hell, I see no problem with bad playoff production in a couple seasons of a career . You see that in Duncan's career, Shaq's career ext, because not all post seasons are going to be equally dominant. However, what I have a problem with is when drops in effiency becomes a visable trend. A drop in post season effiency shouldnt become a visable trend for 10 out of the 13 the runs you have in your career. It's not just KG either, it's the same reason why when I write out my all time list, Karl Malone ends up up towards the bottom of this group of players. No matter how much I like or dislike a player, I can't ignore an obvious trend that confirms what I already know from watching game tape, that Garnett and Malone became less reliable scoring options when it matters the most.

Playoff play is Litteraly the biggest factor in my rankings, and it's impossible for me to ignore drops in playoff effiency that can be seen so consistently. If I were to say that it's not a big deal, then I'd be being dishonest with myself. For me, the numbers clearly indicate what I always say after watching film of Garnett in that playoffs , his habit of settling for bad long jumpers, and not playing inside where he could be more efficent, effected his abilty to be a more reliable scoring option in the post season.

If you don't see that trend as proclamatic than we will never see eye to eye. Because that means what we're evaluating players on is completely on two different planes. You see this as a reason why you need to reevaluate guys who are stigmatized as bad post season players. On the other hand, this kind of data makes me look at all the players in my top 30 to try and see trends about who got worse, who stayed the same and who got better when the games mattered most. The more efficent you become as a primary scoring option, the higher the chance of your team winning IMO.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#328 » by 90sAllDecade » Thu Jul 24, 2014 4:59 am

I have to agree that playoff performance over a career indicates how well a player's game translates against multiple matchups, over several years against better teams, usually better defenses, who game-plan against stopping that star player for a 5-7 game series. It's harder and a career sample is a large one imo, not taking only a couple games or series.

The pace slows down, transition or easy baskets decrease, what a player normally could get away with gets taken away or pressured into a different method of attack. This matters imo and I use it often as a tiebreaker between close players.

But these players are even closer than usual, which is why Dirk's playoff performance, but worse defense from a position that can be very impactful on defense versus Garnett is difficult. Garnett got worse in the playoffs offensively, but his two way individual impact appears to be greater from what I've seen so far. Again, I'm still hashing this out, but there is plenty of gray area to be considered.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#329 » by Ryoga Hibiki » Thu Jul 24, 2014 9:57 am

Not sure if I can vote now, but this is clearly Larry Bird:
- best player on a contending team for a decade, with three successful title runs
- best player in the NBA for at least 3 years
- one of the greatest peak seasons of all time (1986)
- with a longer post prime could have gone a few spots higher

I don't see anybody with a remotely similar resume.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#330 » by DannyNoonan1221 » Thu Jul 24, 2014 2:02 pm

I am voting for Larry Bird

As I said before, Larry won 3 straight MVPs, all against Magic, in their 5th-7th seasons. His basketball IQ made up for the lack of athleticism that hurt him at the defensive end. It is unfortunate his back gave out relatively early. Would have been interesting to see how far up he would have moved in this list with a few more productive seasons.

I have a few problems with KG this high- he lacked the ability to carry his team. Whether his team was complete ****, somewhat ****, or just bad, he seemed to struggle to succeed when having to be the top dog. It wasn't until Boston when (arguably) Paul Pierce lead the team/shared top dog duties with him. To me, all the advanced stats can show a player in a certain light but an alpha dog who cant quite find success without another alpha dog hurts your resume.

KG voters have moved him way up on my list but I still don't think he's a top 12-15 guy.

Bird played team basketball, did what his team needed, coexisted with other quality guys but there was never any question as to who the alpha dog was in Boston. He has the team success, individual success and his stats are right on par with this group that my vote has to be for him.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#331 » by Purch » Thu Jul 24, 2014 2:27 pm

Just wanted to repost the two descriptions of Moses Malone's 1982 season that I quoted last thread. Even though 83 is considered his peak his 82 season is one of the most impressive ever

ShaqAttack3234 wrote:I looked into this season a while ago, and have been meaning to make a thread about it, but forgot until the last few days, so now is as good of a time as any.

He didn't win the title this year like he did in '83, but this has a strong case for being his best season. The individual feats are just astonishing.

I'll start with the final 2 games in January. Entering these games, the Rockets were a mediocre 19-22, but they won both games with Moses scoring 33 in the first game and in the second game, he had 32 points, 20 rebounds, 2 assists and 4 blocks on 12/18 from the floor and 7/10 from the line in 41 minutes. This would start an 8 game winning streak, a stretch where Houston went 13-2, a streak of 13 consecutive 30+ point games, a stretch of 30+ in 19 out of 20 games, and lead into a month of February which would make these 2 late January wins look quiet.

Moses opened up the month of February with 53 points(19 in the 4th quarter), 23 rebounds(11 of them were offensive boards), 4 assists and 1 block on 19/30 from the floor and 15/18 from the line.

That was just the first of 3 consecutive 40 point games. He followed it up with 45 points and 20 rebounds and then had 47 points, 14 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 blocks on 18/28 from the floor and 11/15 from the line.

Here's what Del Harris had to say following these 3 games.

"If there's anybody playing any better in the NBA right now ... well, there just isn't," said Houston Coach Del Harris. "And the thing of it is, he's getting his points off the flow. He's getting them within the framework of our offense, plus the fact he's averaging about 10 points a game off his own hard work on the offensive boards."


Then Moses had a nice 33 point game before he continued with the legendary performances. His next game was a 38 point, 32 rebound game vs the Sonics, he broke his own record with 21 offensive rebounds, a record that still stands 30 years later, and this was the last 30/30 game until Kevin Love did it in the 2010-2011 season.

Moses outrebounded the entire Sonics team by himself, and Lenny Wilkens had this to say.

"Moses was really controlling the boards," said Seattle Coach Lenny Wilkens. "Bob Pettit and Bill Russell were two of the best (rebounders) that I ever saw. Moses compares very favorably."


Moses finally offered his 2 cents as well.

Originally Posted by Moses Malone
"I had stretches like this in high school, but never in pro ball," Malone said, "My body feels so good right now. I stay in shape. I'm losing pounds. The main thing is I'm getting rest."


After a few more 30+ games, one of them in Houston's first loss in more than 3 weeks, Moses had 44 points and 16 rebounds vs the Cavs. Followed by a few more "ordinary" 30+ games, Moses had 34/21 vs Dallas, then he was finally held under 30 with 23 points and 9 rebounds on 8/17 shooting show that he was normal, but the Rockets still beat Denver ever.

However, he'd end February with 43 points and 23 rebounds, and 44 points. Unfortunately, this game didn't end so well as Moses was held to just 2 points in the 4th, missed the potential game-winner in regulation and was held to just 2 points in overtime.

He'd add another 40+ game with 43 points on his first game in March, 14 of his points in the 4th quarter, although Houston would lose this game too.

Overall, Moses averaged 38.1 ppg and 17.3 rpg in the month of February. he had at least 30 points in 13 of the 14 games, scored 40+ 6 times that month and had at least 20 rebounds 6 times that month. He led Houston to an 11-3 record and to nobody's surprise was voted player of the month for February.

But this was not the end of Malone's dominance. After starting off March with the aforementioned 43 point game for a second streak of 3 40+ games in a row in about a month, he continued dropping 30+ including 38/12 with 3 blocks on 16/26 from the floor and 6/6 from the line while playing all 48 minutes, he then came through in the clutch the next game. He had 39 points and 18 rebounds including the offensive rebound and game-winner with 4 seconds remaining to beat the Suns by 2.

He was then held under 30 for just the second time in 21 games with 28 and he shot just 10/28, and followed it up with a 26 point game, which may have made people think he was cooling off. Not the case. He responded with 49 points and 12 rebounds while scoring 22 in the 4th quarter to beat the Blazers, then he was relatively quiet with games of 24 and 19 points, respectively, but responded with 39 points and 17 rebounds vs Kareem's Lakers, though Kareem sat out the second half with a sprained ankle.



Moses transitioned into his next outstanding performance with 31 points in between. He duplicated his outstanding performance from about a week and a half earlier vs Portland when he had 41 points and 18 rebounds as well as a 12 point 4th quarter to beat Portland again. He followed this up with 46 points vs the Sonics to continue his dominance of both these Northwest teams. he had a 38/20 game vs the Mavs sandwiched between 29/17 and 35/15 games vs the Warriors, the latter being on April 1st. He had a relatively quiet 21/15 game in a win vs the Spurs to lead into another monster game vs Kareem and the Lakers. Moses had 37 points and 21 rebounds, although Kareem did get the last laugh with 12 of his 20 points in the 4th quarter to pull out the win.

This was really when Malone's historical dominance, which last over 2 months, finally came to an end, as he scored 30+ in just 1 of his last 6 games to end the regular season.

But comparable stretches to Malone's 2 months in April have been few and far between.

Moses finished the season with a career-high 31.1 ppg which was 2nd in the league and a league-leading 14.7 rpg as he was voted MVP.

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#332 » by Purch » Thu Jul 24, 2014 2:29 pm



[QUOTE=dankok8]I always knew it was a great season but upon further analysis I think it's on a very short list of the greatest ever. Only Wilt and Kareem in their peak years ever dominated throughout the regular season so thoroughly. Funny thing is Moses started the year a bit slow but the second half of the season he was as dominant as any player ever. He just steamrolled the best centers in the league. For the entire season he averaged 31.1 ppg and 14.7 rpg on 51.9% shooting. He was second in the league in scoring and led in rebounding, PER, and Win Shares.

Month-by-Month:

October (2 games): 39.0 ppg, 10.5 rpg

November (15 games): 25.3 ppg, 13.7 rpg

December (12 games): 28.5 ppg, 15.4 rpg

January (13 games): 28.7 ppg, 13.8 rpg

February (14 games): 38.1 ppg, 17.3 rpg on 55% shooting

March (16 games): 35.0 ppg, 14.1 rpg

April (9 games): 28.1 ppg, 15.6 rpg



During the all-star game on January 31st, Moses had 12 points and 11 rebounds in just 20 minutes played but West coach Pat Riley decided to bench Moses in the 4th quarter in favor of Kareem. The West lost the game and Moses was pissed and this event is rumored to have motivated his tear on the league. For 33 straight games from February 2nd to April 6th, Moses averaged 36.0 ppg and 15.8 rpg.

His game against Sikma and the Supersonics on February 11th is one of the all-time legendary performances. Moses outrebounded the entire Seattle team 32-21, grabbed an NBA record 21 offensive rebounds, and outrebounded center Jack Sikma by a 32-3 margin (and also outscored him 38-16). Sikma was in his prime that season averaging 19.6/12.7 and one of the best defenders and rebounders in the league.


Here are his performances against the best centers in the league.


vs. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (5 games)

Moses: 34.8 ppg, 15.8 rpg

Kareem: 21.8 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 3.2 apg on 51.8% shooting

Kareem left one game in the 1st half with an ankle injury but Moses still killed an aging Kareem. Moses had games of 36/10, 37/22, 23/9, 39/17, and 37/21 against the Lakers.

81-82 Season

10/30/1981

Kareem: 33/10/2 (11/25, 11/16)
Moses: 36/10 (18/?, 0/2)

Rockets win 113-112 in double OT. Moses scores a game-winning lay-up with one second remaining.

11/11/1981

Kareem: 21/9/3 (9/21, 3/3)
Moses: 37/22 (15/?, 7/9)

Lakers win 95-93. Kareem had 4 points in the last minute to fuel the Lakers comeback.

11/29/1981

Kareem: 23/3/4 (10/14, 3/5)
Moses: 23/9 (9/?, 5/6)

Lakers win 122-104. Magic had 12/11/11 for LA and Hayes had a 30/12 game for Houston.

3/21/1982

Kareem: 12/6/4 (6/9, 0/1)
Moses: 39/17 (12/?, 15/18)

Lakers win 107-102. Kareem left the first half with an ankle injury and did not return. Moses had 25 points in that half and just 14 in the second. Magic took over late.

4/6/1982

Kareem: 20/3/3 (7/14, 6/8)
Moses: 37/21 (9/?, 19/21)

Lakers win 108-97.

Cumulative Stats

Kareem: 21.8 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 3.2 apg on 51.8 %FG/69.7 %FT/55.9 %TS
Moses: 34.4 ppg, 15.8 rpg on 82.1 %FT

Moses just dominated Kareem this year in 3 out of the 5 games. He’s the clear winner here.



vs. Robert Parish (2 games)

Moses: 37.5 ppg, 11.5 rpg

Parish: 11.0 ppg

Moses had games of 37/11 and 38/12 against the Celtics.


vs. Jack Sikma (5 games)

Moses: 31.4 ppg, 16.0 rpg

Sikma: 17.8 rpg

Moses had games of 21/11, 28/15, 24/9, 38/32, and 46/13 against the Sonics.


vs. Mychal Thompson (5 games)

Moses: 36.2 ppg, 13.6 rpg, 1.4 apg on 60.8% shooting

Thompson: 21.4 ppg, 12.4 rpg, 3.4 apg on 59.3% shooting

Moses had games of 28/10, 34/8, 29/20, 49/12, and 41/18 against the Blazers.


vs. Artis Gilmore (2 games)

Moses: 29.0 ppg, 16.0 rpg

Gilmore: 21.5 ppg

Moses had games of 31/16 and 27/? against the Bulls.



Overall in 19 games against the five best centers in the league above, Moses averaged a monstrous 33.8 ppg and 14.8 rpg. He went 17-1-1 in scoring and we don't have rebounds for all games but of course he dominated them pretty badly on the glass.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#333 » by penbeast0 » Thu Jul 24, 2014 2:46 pm

I have the vote as follows:

Larry Bird ((12) Baller2014, DQuinn1575, ClydeFrazier, Warspite, rich316. DHodgkins, acrossthecourt, trex_8063. ronnymac2, Moonbeam, ChuckTexas, DannyNoonan1221

Kobe (3) andrewww, GCPantalones, AnUnbiasedFan

Garnett (2) PCProductions, therealbig3

DRobinson (1) magicmerl
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#334 » by drza » Thu Jul 24, 2014 2:55 pm

penbeast0 wrote:I have the vote as follows:

Larry Bird ((12) Baller2014, DQuinn1575, ClydeFrazier, Warspite, rich316. DHodgkins, acrossthecourt, trex_8063. ronnymac2, Moonbeam, ChuckTexas, DannyNoonan1221

Kobe (3) andrewww, GCPantalones, AnUnbiasedFan

Garnett (2) PCProductions, therealbig3

DRobinson (1) magicmerl


Doc MJ voted KG in post 311, he just didn't bold it.

Also, officially, I vote Kevin Garnett

I've supported this vote with copious detail in this thread and others, so I hope this can be official.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#335 » by tsherkin » Thu Jul 24, 2014 3:02 pm

Sneaking in a Bird vote here. I felt he should have gone earlier, so definitely handling that now.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#336 » by ElGee » Thu Jul 24, 2014 3:04 pm

Purch wrote:However, what I have a problem with is when drops in effiency becomes a visable trend. A drop in post season effiency shouldnt become a visable trend for 10 out of the 13 the runs you have in your career. It's not just KG either, it's the same reason why when I write out my all time list, Karl Malone ends up up towards the bottom of this group of players...

Playoff play is Litteraly the biggest factor in my rankings, and it's impossible for me to ignore drops in playoff effiency that can be seen so consistently...

If you don't see that trend as proclamatic than we will never see eye to eye...On the other hand, this kind of data makes me look at all the players in my top 30 to try and see trends about who got worse, who stayed the same and who got better when the games mattered most. The more efficent you become as a primary scoring option, the higher the chance of your team winning IMO.


You're doing some wonky math-jumps to try and identify a "trend" where you are ignoring unequal sample sizes.

Look at the following FT log:
    1/2
    1/2
    1/2
    1/2
    16/16

That player shot below 60% from the line in 80% of his games! A trend! Of course, he shot 83% from the line. Which do you think is more representative of what happened, the reductionist x-out-of-y times or looking at the whole sample? If you look at the whole sample, Garnett's TS% drops 2.7% more than expected (99-08) in a small sample.

And I suggest you do more research if you want accuracy in your rankings. 70% of the time elite players see their efficiency go down in the PS. Michael Jordan's efficiency dropped in 10 of his 11 full seasons in Chicago in the playoffs. (PS, Shaq is 9 out of 12.)

90sAllDecade wrote:I have to agree that playoff performance over a career indicates how well a player's game translates against multiple matchups, over several years against better teams, usually better defenses, who game-plan against stopping that star player for a 5-7 game series. It's harder and a career sample is a large one imo, not taking only a couple games or series.

The pace slows down, transition or easy baskets decrease, what a player normally could get away with gets taken away or pressured into a different method of attack.
This matters imo and I use it often as a tiebreaker between close players.


Similarly, you are doing what you are advocating against -- you are looking at a small sample sample and attributing something special about the playoffs to make conclusions instead of looking at larger pieces of data. Do you think it's more likely that the PS is radically different and pace significantly changes, or do you think players just play better defenses? And do you think you can get a better and more diverse sample from 1 to 4 PS series or from the entire season?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#337 » by Purch » Thu Jul 24, 2014 3:14 pm

I think your definition of a small sample size differs with mine. A 5 year sample is a small sample size in my book. A 13 year sample is more than adequate. You trying to act like you're the final judge on whats a respectable sample size doesn't really mean that that's the case at all.And I would appreciate if you would stop talking down to me, like I can't judge for myself what an adequate sample size is if you happen to disagree with it.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#338 » by colts18 » Thu Jul 24, 2014 3:18 pm

For the KG fans,

How do you explain Minnesota having a -1.0 offense in the playoffs from 99-04? It's clear that the drop is like 90% explained from KG. He had years where his offensive supporting cast played up to par but he disappointed them (04). You can't praise KG for taking the TWolves to a top 6 offense while ignoring the fact that his decline in the playoffs made them a below average offense.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#339 » by Jaivl » Thu Jul 24, 2014 3:39 pm

Vote: Oscar Robertson

If Magic was voted in, I see no reason not to vote Oscar a couple of spots next. Offensive impact is the main argument. Check this in/out data (thanks to ElGee):

Spoiler:
Image


So basically when Oscar was off the court for the Royals (70 game sample), the team was worse by nearly 8 SRS points (more precisely 7.99). Of course it's easier to add impact with weak supporting casts, but Oscar's production was worth literally half the team.

Then he goes to the Bucks with Kareem. Already a good team without him (Kareem is top 3 ever, you know), post-prime Oscar bumps a title contender (+7 SRS) to GOAT status (+12 SRS).

10~12-year prime (longer than Bird's), comparable impact, comparable skillset (more efficient scorer, possibly even better distributor, better, much more durable and athletic body... worse off-ball, worse defender, possibly lower IQ -still very high-).

I'm happy with Bird or KG at #10, though.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#340 » by DQuinn1575 » Thu Jul 24, 2014 4:03 pm

colts18 wrote:I'm not sure why anyone is bringing up Mikan. He played in an era with no black players or Euros. That's a black mark against him. Just imagine if today you took out 90% of the NBA players and only had a league of guys like Love, Lee, McDermott, Korver, etc. You would think that Kevin Love was Michael Jordan like in that league. Luke Ridnour would be the Bob Cousy of that league.



Mikan Lesson for Peoplr - there were no Euros for him to place against. The 1956 and 1960 Olympic teams, made up of college and AAU players destroyed the rest of the world. There were very few, if any, NBA calibre players outside the US.

Mikan against Black players - Okay, as at least some of you know, the Harlem Globetrotters were a great team in the 40s and 50s. They won a world championship tournament played in Chicago and were competitive in it many years. They also played against top college seniors each year in the "World Series of Basketball' . The Trotters won
the series every year, winning against early pros like Arizin, Rodgers, Gola, Bridges, etc.
http://www.apbr.org/wrldsers.html

Well the Trotters, one-time world champions, and probably the best black basketball team in the early 50's played the Lakers http://www.apbr.org/trotters-lakers.html

The Trotters won the 1st 2 games - Lakers star Jim Pollard missed the second. The Lakers won the next (and final) 6,.

Mikan played 7 games against the Trotters - 204 pts in 7 games with a high of 47 and a low of 19 - 29 points a game
And the total score was 461-405 - so Mikan was scoring about 50% of the total the Trotters did.


Most of his opposition came from Nat "Sweewater" Clifton, who was one of the first black players in the NBA, and Goose Tatum, who was an all-time Trotter who was MVP against the College All-Stars twice.

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