Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 4

theboomking · Post #1381 » by **theboomking** » Thu Jul 24, 2014 2:47 pm

dckingsfan wrote:Edit: It means that last year Porter and Rice had a net negative effect on wins produced by the Wizards and Webster had a large net positive effect. Making the assumption that Porter and Rice will make the jump to Webster's production of last year is wishful thinking.

I don't think you can use last year's production since Porter and Rice got almost no burn last year, are a year older, and both looked good in summer league play. Porter alone projects as a better player than Webster based on his passing and defense, although I don't expect Porter to shoot as well as Webster from 3 point range. Add in to that that Webster has since had back surgery and I think there is enough uncertainty that you could argue reasonably argue either side of this point without looking foolish.

IMHO, the best thing Webster could do for the team is miss enough games that his last season can be voided if necessary to sign KD. How many games does Webster have to miss for his last season to be voidable?

closg00 · Post #1382 » by **closg00** » Thu Jul 24, 2014 2:48 pm

payitforward wrote:
closg00 wrote:Just how badly did EG bungle the entire 2011 draft? The 23rd pick in that draft (Nikola Mirotic) is one of the best Euros and can be offered in a trade w/o laughter. 23rd pick a possible trade piece for Love, all-three of our 2011 picks are not on an NBA team currently.

More on Nikola. The Bulls had a vision, patience, and better talent evaluation.
http://hoopshype.com/articles/hoopshype ... ba-history

You don't understand, man -- they picked #23. They had no chance at a guy like Vesely.

In any case, at #18 (where we picked Singleton) I'd certainly have taken Faried over Mirotic.

Correction: Mirotic was traded twice on draft night, initially by Houston.

dckingsfan · Post #1383 » by **dckingsfan** » Thu Jul 24, 2014 3:00 pm

theboomking wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Edit: It means that last year Porter and Rice had a net negative effect on wins produced by the Wizards and Webster had a large net positive effect. Making the assumption that Porter and Rice will make the jump to Webster's production of last year is wishful thinking.

I don't think you can use last year's production since Porter and Rice got almost no burn last year, are a year older, and both looked good in summer league play. Porter alone projects as a better player than Webster based on his passing and defense, although I don't expect Porter to shoot as well as Webster from 3 point range. Add in to that that Webster has since had back surgery and I think there is enough uncertainty that you could argue reasonably argue either side of this point without looking foolish.

IMHO, the best thing Webster could do for the team is miss enough games that his last season can be voided if necessary to sign KD. How many games does Webster have to miss for his last season to be voidable?

Yes, but I don't think you could expect Porter/Rice production to equal Webster's... and that is the point. I think both Porter/Rice will be much better than last year.

I also don't think the PP/Porter combo will be as good as the Ariza/Webster combo of last year.

gambitx777 · Post #1384 » by **gambitx777** » Thu Jul 24, 2014 3:57 pm

So, I saw this today,
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_ ... api_public

If I am not mistaken, there have been plenty of domestic draft and stash players before. In fact I am pretty sure the heat did it last year, by sending their second round pick to play overseas.

payitforward · Post #1385 » by **payitforward** » Thu Jul 24, 2014 4:11 pm

gambitx777 wrote:So, I saw this today,
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_ ... api_public

If I am not mistaken, there have been plenty of domestic draft and stash players before. In fact I am pretty sure the heat did it last year, by sending their second round pick to play overseas.

I don't know about you, but I've been keeping my stash domestic for years....

Nivek · Post #1386 » by **Nivek** » Thu Jul 24, 2014 6:32 pm

gambitx777 wrote:So, I saw this today,
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_ ... api_public

If I am not mistaken, there have been plenty of domestic draft and stash players before. In fact I am pretty sure the heat did it last year, by sending their second round pick to play overseas.

Domestic draft-n-stash in this case means that they did it with an American college player using the D-League instead of sending a player overseas. Also, OKC did it with a first round pick. Teams have long been doing draft-n-stash using 2nd rounders on international players. The Wizards are doing it with Satoransky right now. The Spurs did it a couple years ago with Marcus Denmon, though Denmon hasn't made it to the NBA. Yet.

gambitx777 · Post #1387 » by **gambitx777** » Thu Jul 24, 2014 11:12 pm

Nivek wrote:
gambitx777 wrote:So, I saw this today,
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_ ... api_public

If I am not mistaken, there have been plenty of domestic draft and stash players before. In fact I am pretty sure the heat did it last year, by sending their second round pick to play overseas.

Domestic draft-n-stash in this case means that they did it with an American college player using the D-League instead of sending a player overseas. Also, OKC did it with a first round pick. Teams have long been doing draft-n-stash using 2nd rounders on international players. The Wizards are doing it with Satoransky right now. The Spurs did it a couple years ago with Marcus Denmon, though Denmon hasn't made it to the NBA. Yet.

I guess so, But I mean the article is a little misleading. american players have been drafted and stashed somewhere else before. But i get your point.

AFM · Post #1388 » by **AFM** » Fri Jul 25, 2014 12:53 am

It's the first time it's been done to a 1st round pick. Basically they convinced him to sign for 25,000 in the D league rather than the 1.25M he's supposed to make at his draft slot.

AFM · Post #1389 » by **AFM** » Fri Jul 25, 2014 12:53 am

Also 2/6M for Jameer Nelson is a great signing for Dallas. Isn't that what we are paying for Miller?

gambitx777 · Post #1390 » by **gambitx777** » Fri Jul 25, 2014 1:00 am

AFM wrote:Also 2/6M for Jameer Nelson is a great signing for Dallas. Isn't that what we are paying for Miller?

I think we are paying him like 4.6 or something like that this year.

verbal8 · Post #1391 » by **verbal8** » Fri Jul 25, 2014 3:52 am

AFM wrote:It's the first time it's been done to a 1st round pick. Basically they convinced him to sign for 25,000 in the D league rather than the 1.25M he's supposed to make at his draft slot.

I think he is a bit of a unique situation. I think this must have been orchestrated pre-draft. If he plays out his rookie deal I think he is looking at over $6 million vs. a 2nd rounder gets 1.5 million with no guarantees in the 1st 2 years. He is in a situation where he can probably afford some insurance protection, also he has much higher out-side of basketball earning potential(Stanford degree, possibility of grad school) than your typical NBA prospect.

Post #1392 » by **bondom34** » Fri Jul 25, 2014 4:41 am

Hey all, just FYI, the Huestis thing was his agent's idea, OKC didn't convince him to do anything.

MDStar · Post #1393 » by **MDStar** » Fri Jul 25, 2014 1:43 pm

bondom34 wrote:Hey all, just FYI, the Huestis thing was his agent's idea, OKC didn't convince him to do anything.

My take on this is also that he was unlikely to be drafted at all. So by orchestrating this will the Thunder, he essentially has a 1st round draft slot waiting for him if he develops, which I'm guessing he fully expects himself to do.

So yes, it's certainly risky but if he wasn't drafted, he would have had to fight and claw just to get on someone's D-League team. Now he has an automatic spot and it's up to him to do what he can with it.

Post #1394 » by **bondom34** » Fri Jul 25, 2014 1:47 pm

MDStar wrote:
bondom34 wrote:Hey all, just FYI, the Huestis thing was his agent's idea, OKC didn't convince him to do anything.

My take on this is also that he was unlikely to be drafted at all. So by orchestrating this will the Thunder, he essentially has a 1st round draft slot waiting for him if he develops, which I'm guessing he fully expects himself to do.

So yes, it's certainly risky but if he wasn't drafted, he would have had to fight and claw just to get on someone's D-League team. Now he has an automatic spot and it's up to him to do what he can with it.

Yep, my take as well. A lot of mocks had him undrafted, the highest I saw was 47th in DX.

closg00 · Post #1395 » by **closg00** » Fri Jul 25, 2014 9:32 pm

Mack gets a 3-year deal from ATL, $7.8 mil, very cheap deal for a back-up.

Post #1396 » by **LyricalRico** » Sat Jul 26, 2014 10:10 am

Lol @ Phil's offer for Kevin Love. Was he attempting to Jedi mind trick Flip?

Post #1397 » by **Ruzious** » Sat Jul 26, 2014 11:42 am

gambitx777 wrote:So, I saw this today,
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_ ... api_public

If I am not mistaken, there have been plenty of domestic draft and stash players before. In fact I am pretty sure the heat did it last year, by sending their second round pick to play overseas.

I stashed my share of domestic drafts last night. Wait what?

Benjammin · Post #1398 » by **Benjammin** » Sat Jul 26, 2014 3:32 pm

LyricalRico wrote:Lol @ Phil's offer for Kevin Love. Was he attempting to Jedi mind trick Flip?

I think he forgot to throw in the beads and trinkets into that "alluring offer".

Post #1399 » by **floppymoose** » Sat Jul 26, 2014 3:52 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
fishercob wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Great chart for those that think that Porter/Rice will somehow be better than Webster

You only get to cite it as support for an argument if you can explain what it actually means.

Here you go fish... http://wagesofwins.com/how-to-calculate-wins-produced/

Edit: It means that last year Porter and Rice had a net negative effect on wins produced by the Wizards and Webster had a large net positive effect. Making the assumption that Porter and Rice will make the jump to Webster's production of last year is wishful thinking.

Wins Produced is completely useless. It can be seen in the link you posted, scrolling down to "Step 4":
Step Four: Incorporate team defense and calculate adjusted P48.

In other words, Berri pretends he has a model that evaluates individual player performance, but it actually doesn't.It needs this huge component that is actually a team number. Without that component, all the claims Berri makes about how well WP correlated with real wins falls down. It's a broken stat. See the discussion here:
viewtopic.php?f=344&t=1037764

nuposse04 · Post #1400 » by **nuposse04** » Sat Jul 26, 2014 7:00 pm

floppymoose wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
fishercob wrote:
You only get to cite it as support for an argument if you can explain what it actually means.

Here you go fish... http://wagesofwins.com/how-to-calculate-wins-produced/

Edit: It means that last year Porter and Rice had a net negative effect on wins produced by the Wizards and Webster had a large net positive effect. Making the assumption that Porter and Rice will make the jump to Webster's production of last year is wishful thinking.

Wins Produced is completely useless. It can be seen in the link you posted, scrolling down to "Step 4":
Step Four: Incorporate team defense and calculate adjusted P48.

In other words, Berri pretends he has a model that evaluates individual player performance, but it actually doesn't.It needs this huge component that is actually a team number. Without that component, all the claims Berri makes about how well WP correlated with real wins falls down. It's a broken stat. See the discussion here:
viewtopic.php?f=344&t=1037764

As someone who isn't a fan of WP48, that thread was an interesting read. I'm pretty sure Ariza was rated as the wiz best player last season by it, which is just completely asinine to me.