Spencer Dinwiddie: ceiling/floor?

jakebernat · Post #1 » by **jakebernat** » Fri Jul 25, 2014 12:02 am

What do you guys think the best/worse case scenario for Dinwiddie is? I've always loved players like him. He's got a keen understanding of the game and always seems to make the right play. his ability to run an offense at his size is uncanny too.

Personally, and I know this is gonna annoy some people, I think his ceiling is Manu Ginobili. Bear in mind the definition of ceiling in this instance. They have similar builds: 6'6, long, wiry frame. They both have great jumpers. They both have a craftiness and slipperiness (is that a word?) to their game. And they can both initiate an offense.

As for his floor, who knows? Brandon Roy after all the injuries? I don't know, but while it's still fresh in my mind, happy belated birthday Brandon Roy!! God was he fun to watch.

Post #2 » by **Timmaytime** » Fri Jul 25, 2014 12:14 am

Floor is out of the NBA

Ceiling? Smarter Jamal Crawford, Chicago/NYK days, not the Clippers days

Post #3 » by **dVs33** » Fri Jul 25, 2014 2:02 am

I think a Smarter Jamal Crawford ceiling is a good one.

Billl · Post #4 » by **Billl** » Fri Jul 25, 2014 2:48 am

Well, the obvious floor is that he never fully comes back and washes out of the league without ever playing a game.

Upside? Who knows. He doesn't seem to have any glaring flaws that would put a cap on him in terms of production. He doesn't have elite level AA though so I would say it's pretty unlikely he would rise up the "solid starter" level.

ComboGuardCity · Post #5 » by **ComboGuardCity** » Fri Jul 25, 2014 2:54 am

Ceiling is probably what Alec Burks was supposed to be, a less athletic Eddie jones.

Floor is out of the league.

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tmorgan · Post #6 » by **tmorgan** » Fri Jul 25, 2014 5:12 am

Dinwiddie's gonna be a real interesting guy to watch develop. Watching highlights from his seasons in Colorado, there are a bunch of things that are clear:

1) He's not a good athlete for a NBA guard
2) He's not particularly quick, and his handle doesn't look particularly tight
3) His shot selection is questionable, and he doesn't pass when he should

that said...

4) He can make difficult shots
5) He gets where he wants on the floor
6) He knows how to draw contact and play through it
7) He's a leader
8) He's a smart guy
9) He's long for a guard, and he uses it on both ends, playing better defense than you'd expect

Dinwiddie really does have a massive range of potential outcomes. His feel for the game is VERY strong, and if he gets in top shape and gets an opportunity, he could be a really effective player, maybe even a potential starting guard (although I think that would require another primary ball-handler, either with Spencer at the 2 or a shooting guard with some PG skills -- not KCP or Meeks).

My guess? He does nothing, because it'll take a lot of faith to turn his skillset into a rotation player. That said, he was a good 2nd round pick, because I'd say he has at least a 25% chance to be major contributor to our next contending team, which is a way better chance than your typical 2nd rounder.

Warspite · Post #7 » by **Warspite** » Fri Jul 25, 2014 10:14 am

Floor: Billups
Ceiling: Oscar

313 Professor · Post #8 » by **313 Professor** » Fri Jul 25, 2014 7:02 pm

I absolutely love the Manu Ginobili comparison, and see what you're getting at there. I like how he finishes and his flexibility and creativity around the basket to go with the range.

I've been busy so I need to watch a little more of him but right now I'd say:

Ceiling: Manu Ginobili
Floor: Shaun Livingston w/range and no confidence/explosion because of injury to score inside (still solid tho because of shot/vision)

Billl · Post #9 » by **Billl** » Fri Jul 25, 2014 7:47 pm

You guys must be talking about the 36 yr old version of Ginobili. The prime Ginobili could get up and throw down in traffic. He's in a whole different category athletically.

jakebernat · Post #10 » by **jakebernat** » Fri Jul 25, 2014 9:01 pm

why do people think dinwiddie is some sort of bad athlete? i think he gets up and down the court fairly quickly. he can't jump as high as some other top prospects, but he's no slouch either. he appears to have pretty long arms too.

313 Professor · Post #11 » by **313 Professor** » Fri Jul 25, 2014 9:07 pm

Billl wrote:You guys must be talking about the 36 yr old version of Ginobili. The prime Ginobili could get up and throw down in traffic. He's in a whole different category athletically.

Ginobili aint never "throw down" like that. He has always dunked with speed and body control THROUGH traffic not with power and explosion IN traffic. When I think of throw down I'm thinking James Young national championship type dunks or Deandre's.

And yea, I am talking about a healthy bald patch Ginobili to account for the court vision, patience, and P&R skill Manu's developed over time and minus a little speed/explosion. I think that's a very good comparison jakebernat made and I see it. Really like The Mayor and the comparison

coolness · Post #12 » by **coolness** » Sat Jul 26, 2014 8:32 am

dVs33 wrote:I think a Smarter Jamal Crawford ceiling is a good one.

Smarter Jamal Crawford could = superstar, no?

Uncle Mxy · Post #13 » by **Uncle Mxy** » Sat Jul 26, 2014 12:29 pm

Ceiling: Manute Bol
Floor: Muggsy Bogues

Redeemed · Post #14 » by **Redeemed** » Sat Jul 26, 2014 4:55 pm

His size and swagger remind me of Steve Smith. That would be a dope ceiling to have.

need4detroit · Post #15 » by **need4detroit** » Sat Jul 26, 2014 5:45 pm

He has surprisingly good body control. I think he's a bit more athletic than he's given credit for.

Post #16 » by **Timmaytime** » Sun Jul 27, 2014 12:38 am

coolness wrote:
dVs33 wrote:I think a Smarter Jamal Crawford ceiling is a good one.

Smarter Jamal Crawford could = superstar, no?

Jamal Crawford has never even been close to being a star, so probably not. But 18/4/6 on 53-55 TS% is a solid estimate

Basically Crawford's '04 season except better shot selection and not so much getting lost on defense as his peak?

need4detroit · Post #17 » by **need4detroit** » Sun Jul 27, 2014 1:41 am

I don't know what his ceiling is but I'm not expecting 18 ppg anytime.

Billl · Post #18 » by **Billl** » Mon Jul 28, 2014 2:21 pm

313 Professor wrote:
Billl wrote:You guys must be talking about the 36 yr old version of Ginobili. The prime Ginobili could get up and throw down in traffic. He's in a whole different category athletically.

Ginobili aint never "throw down" like that. He has always dunked with speed and body control THROUGH traffic not with power and explosion IN traffic. When I think of throw down I'm thinking James Young national championship type dunks or Deandre's.

And yea, I am talking about a healthy bald patch Ginobili to account for the court vision, patience, and P&R skill Manu's developed over time and minus a little speed/explosion. I think that's a very good comparison jakebernat made and I see it. Really like The Mayor and the comparison

Sure.......If you go up and dunk over guys, you are dunking IN traffic. He usually goes around guys, but he's had his fair share of dunks right over them. If Dinwiddie gets a corner, he's probably going to try to finish with a little flip or layup. He's not even thinking about dunking it. That is a big difference.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3aUF7KT2_DQ
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3oqne ... ne-o_sport

"why do people think dinwiddie is some sort of bad athlete?"

Not sure anyone said he's a bad athlete. He's just not elite. When you talk about what his ceiling is, lack of elite athleticism is probably going to be a limiting factor. He's going to be matched up against guys where they have an athletic advantage on a pretty regular basis. He has some other skills to help make up for that disadvantage, but that doesn't mean that disadvantage doesn't exist.

Ghost · Post #19 » by **Ghost** » Mon Jul 28, 2014 2:35 pm

Floor: out of the league after rookie contract.
Ceiling: James Harden

I'd be happy with him becoming our starting PG and considered like 15th best PG in the league.. That would be a huge win. I think the odds of him turning into Manu, Chauncey, or Harden would be like 1%. Maybe. It's so much more likely he's gone and never makes an impact on our team, I'm not going to get hyped up over him or something.

We can hope. But c'mon... :lol:

it's far from logical.

Brapman · Post #20 » by **Brapman** » Mon Jul 28, 2014 3:28 pm

Dinwiddie was chosen by the right team. SVG and his coaches will teach him to play PG the right way in our new system - and he's a good shooter and a guy who is very unselfish with a very high BB IQ. His great size and length for the PG position is a major plus.

Also, Kandor will help maximize his recovery, improve and maximize his athleticism, AND help him with drills to improve his ability to use his off hand. Dinwiddie's major weakness as a player is his inability/unwillingness to use his off hand around the basket. Kandor understands better than anyone I've ever heard about how to train players to develop new reflexes. Here's an article from last year describing how he's training Drummond. Andre's huge improvement from his rookie to sophomore seasons, is a bit of proof in the pudding:

http://www.nba.com/pistons/features/tru ... 30502.html

Dinwiddie's rehabilitation gives Arnie a lot of time - way more than usual - to work on Dinwiddie's body and reflexes and nervous system, so when he comes back, he'll likely be physically way ahead of where he would have been had he just come in ready to play on day 1. When he does get on the floor for real for the Pistons, he'll be that much better off.

I think his ceiling is impossible to predict. This kid would have had a great chance to move way up the draft boards and into the first round - perhaps into the lottery. With a full recovery, working and learning from SVG and his high quality coaches, and working with Kander, it's not impossible that Dinwiddie could be a heck of a good PG in this league.