RealGM Top 100 LIST- 2014

[Reservoirdawgs]

What is the criteria being used to rank players here? Is it based on greatness and career accomplishments/achievements or based solely on basketball and how well the player played in their respective primes?

It's dependent on the voter himself/herself. Some voters place more emphasis on longevity, some place more emphasis on peak, some are basing on team success, some advanced stats, etc. Thankfully, the discussion has been top-notch and people are at least backing up their viewpoints.

[JeepCSC]

I suppose. It still is weird to see people debating when some are barely speaking the same language. It is fascinating to watch as a learning exercise, but would be frustrating to take part in. The RAPM stuff seems to be something unsettled even by its proponents, yet I feel it is driving the bus. But the Russell debate was similarly hard for me to follow, as I think there was a whole chunk of debate that took place prior to these threads.

[Purch]

I suppose. It still is weird to see people debating when some are barely speaking the same language. It is fascinating to watch as a learning exercise, but would be frustrating to take part in. The RAPM stuff seems to be something unsettled even by its proponents, yet I feel it is driving the bus. But the Russell debate was similarly hard for me to follow, as I think there was a whole chunk of debate that took place prior to these threads.

It's been about 7 staright threads of people using RAMP to try and elevate KG. The only other candidate who was argued for this long was Hakeem, when he was argued from spot 2 onward until he finally got voted In at 10. It seems this strategy of arguing Garnett against superior players early on has caused him to overlap Malone and Kobe from last project. Causes you to wonder if KG's case had started to be fleshed out at the same time as Oscar and Kobe, if the results wouldn't be different. Ironically even though his supporters tried to strategically link him with Duncan(by their own admission) an even bigger gap between the two exist from last project. Last project Duncan was voted in #8 and KG was #13, this project Duncan was #5 and KG seems like he'll be at #11, so rather than a 5 spot gap there's a 6 spot gap.

I assume after he's voted in people will be a lot less dependent on RAMP, and the disscusion will be easier on the eyes.

[Baller2014]

I've resented the incredible reliance on RAPM as much as anyone, but I'm not sure it's been more effective than any other tool. People who already bought it were always going to buy into it, and people who don't were not. At the end of the day KG has moved up 2 places. It's not a big deal. Duncan, without advanced stats, jumped 3 places this project. I had KG #12 leading in, so I've voted him in one spot higher, and the guy I had #11 (Dr J) has received absolutely zero support at this point, so that probably subconsciously effected my decision. I think KG rising has more to do with people having a more informed view about some of the guys who had been in front of him last time around.

[Purch]

Random thought on that. I think TD's gotten an even bigger boost in my head recently when I started to consider what it really means for your longevity, to be top 5 in MVP voting and 1st Team all nba in your rookie year. If you really stop and think about it thats amazing. Especilly when you consider that 16 seasons later he's still one of the best players at his position currently in the league.

[ceiling raiser]

I would hope RAPM mentions don't cease after this thread is over. If we're not using every useful tool at our disposal (RAPM, WOWY, analyzing tape, qualitative breakdowns of skillsets, Synergy, quotes, etc.) the project loses a good deal of its luster IMO. The goal, from my understanding, is to collect as many new arguments as possible, and see how the new methods stack up against the old. As I've said before (and I don't think I'm alone in this), a big part of why the PC board is so valuable IMO is because you have tons of innovation, and tons of open-minded people willing to change their opinions.

With regards to Duncan, he actually rates extrmely well by RAPM. I'm hesitant about using the results from 01-07 though, because I'm not sure what to think about J.E.'s data set (he'd stated he was missing a good chunk of games) and priors. His 14 year study, if the data is complete, is quite informative though.

[Baller2014]

Random thought on that. I think TD's gotten an even bigger boost in my head recently when I started to consider what it really means for your longevity, to be top 5 in MVP voting and 1st Team all nba in your rookie year. If you really stop and think about it thats amazing. Especilly when you consider that 16 seasons later he's still one of the best players at his position currently in the league.

Yeh, it's pretty incredible. There's a reason I was voting for him from #3 (after my top 2, Jordan and Kareem, got in). I'd take him over Russell without question, but given the era issues around Russell/Wilt it's probably understandable they beat him out. The big job was explaining why he deserved to get picked over Shaq, and a lot of those arguments were made without needing to reference advanced stats at all.

The next big task is to get people to start considering Dr J and Karl Malone. I'm more optimistic about Karl Malone, who guys like you have been talking up, and less so about Dr J. I'm not sure why Dr J is getting so little love, he has maybe the highest peak of remaining players and a tonne of longevity. Maybe I should have started discussing him 3 threads ago? I can't quite put my finger on what it is about him that people don't like. Maybe he just lacks a champion.

[Jaivl]

I can't quite put my finger on what it is about him that people don't like. Maybe he just lacks a champion.

People consider there are better players on the board. That's all.

[Quotatious]

I would hope RAPM mentions don't cease after this thread is over. If we're not using every useful tool at our disposal (RAPM, WOWY, analyzing tape, qualitative breakdowns of skillsets, Synergy, quotes, etc.) the project loses a good deal of it's luster IMO. The goal, from my understanding, is to collect as many new arguments as possible, and see how the new methods stack up against the old. As I've said before (and I don't think I'm alone in this), a big part of why the PC board is so valuable IMO is because you have tons of innovation, and tons of open-minded people willing to change their opinions.

With regards to Duncan, he actually rates extrmely well by RAPM. I'm hesitant about using the results from 01-07 though, because I'm not sure what to think about J.E.'s data set (he'd stated he was missing a good chunk of games) and priors. His 14 year study, if the data is complete, is quite informative though.

Yeah, exactly. I don't see any problem with some people putting a lot of emphasis on RAPM, and others even completely disregarding it. To me, such variety of criteria is a great thing - we have posters whose methodology varies greatly and everyone is entitled to their own perspective and way of evaluating players, so it should more or less balance everything out. That's why I didn't really like lorak's idea that we should establish consistent criteria and evaluate players accordingly. If everyone can choose how they want to judge a player, other participants can not only convince him that an other player may be more deserving of being selected, but also change that person's thought process, arguing why a different perspective might make more sense.

I agree with Jaivl's post from the #11 thread - I also don't think anyone would really have a problem with that if Kobe was selected 10th or 11th, but apparently, a lot of people find the idea of putting Garnett over Bryant as offensive.

[Texas Chuck]

I can't quite put my finger on what it is about him that people don't like. Maybe he just lacks a champion.

People consider there are better players on the board. That's all.

I actually agree with Baller on this one. I think Malone lacking a champion absolutely hurts his cause.

To think otherwise means you believe that a vast majority of the posts in this project are worthless. Most of the conversation is driven by "champions" and thus our opinions of players should be changing one way or the other based on the discussions they are leading. So if no one is really bringing up Malone and arguing for him no one really has an opportunity or reason to change their opinion on him,' I mean how many people have we seen come out and say how much their opinion was influenced by the discussion on Lebron and we saw it some with Duncan and we are absolutely seeing it now with KG. If KG didn't get brought up and didnt dominate most of the threads to this point I seriously doubt he'd be the frontrunner now. That doesnt make KG unworthy of this spot, but let's face it we have seen like 1000 more KG stuff than Malone stuff. This project is pointless if that's not having an impact.

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[Baller2014]

Well, FJS is trying to join, so if he's let in by next thread maybe he'll be Malone's champion. I see a few others like Purch (non-voter), Ronny and Realbig3 who are ready to vote him in after KG, so it may be that the Karl Malone train is finally here. I'm not his strongest advocate (I'm still not sure he should get in over Dr J), but I'm pretty confused by his near total exclusion thus far in the discussion. Surely he's a comparable player to KG, and for mine a superior player to Kobe and Oscar. He basically beats Kobe at everything except a ring count (just as good on the offensive end, vastly more impactful on D, better longevity, less bad intangibles, just as many or more accolades, etc).

[tsherkin]

Malone's dip from RS to PS hurts him as much as his lack of a ring, I think.

For a long time, he was considered the best pf ever and he really was a remarkable player who had the misfortune to face a dynasty with a pair of old guard with unremarkable athleticism in their mid-30s, neither of whom were strong scoring threats against athletic wing D. I feel bad that Malone never had his Penny/Kobe, because he really was awesome. Erving will get traction, but later on.

[Texas Chuck]

Malone's dip from RS to PS hurts him as much as his lack of a ring, I think.

.

In the main thread I posted his career(not peak or prime) PS numbers. They are obscene by any standards. This is a false narrative that Im hoping this thread can start to correct.

He drops off some in efficiency to be sure, but his career PS numbers are something some guys already getting voted in would like to have and these arent empty numbers either. Punishing him too much for a drop-off in TS% considering how good he still was in the PS would be silly.

[JeepCSC]

I think my last comment on RAPM is that it seems it is something still being argued on as far as value and impact (ha!) it has. There doesn't even seem to be a standard, and some things labeled RAPM were being shouted down as really being something else. It may be an interesting tool, but without uniform standardization it seems like it should be way down in importance for the time being. Certainly I think it has come to a head here, with contemporaries Kobe and Kevin since we all saw their battles play out in real time. I can't even say it's wrong that Garnett is getting in over Kobe. It just feels weird how it is happening. I don't know, I might revisit the thread tonight, it might make more sense then.

Incidentally, we are looking at 5 of the top 12 (or 13) hitting their peaks in this millennium. Duncan, Shaq, and Lebron seem great of course in the top, but I wonder about the recency bias. I know there was a some Oscar v West debate, and I wonder if other era players would benefit from more debate of this nature. Like the next best of the 90s (Robinson v Malone) or maybe late ABA/early 80s era (Dr J vs Moses). There would be several debates going on in each thread, that of hoping to find the next choice in the varying eras as well as comparing those choices against one another to find the next placement in an all-time list.

[Quotatious]

In the main thread I posted his career(not peak or prime) PS numbers. They are obscene by any standards. This is a false narrative.

Karl Malone career regular season stats: 25.0 PPG/10.1 RPG/3.6 APG, 23.9 PER, 57.7% TS, 20.5 WS/48 in 37.2 MPG in 1476 games

Karl Malone career playoff stats: 24.7 PPG/10.7 RPG/3.2 APG, 21.1 PER, 52.6% TS, 14.0 WS/48 in 41.0 MPG in 193 games

So, I think the notion of Mailman being a bad playoff performer is based on his decline in terms of PER, TS% and WS/48, pretty much the most popular "advanced" stats. Colts18 posted this chart in the #9 thread:



Malone is at the bottom with Nique, and Bird is the third worst as far as his playoff drop-off in that metric, relative to his RS career. Malone would drop even more in TS% and WS/48. Not saying that I necessarily agree with that, but it seems like that's what the main argument against Malone is based on.

[Purch]

Malone's dip from RS to PS hurts him as much as his lack of a ring, I think.

For a long time, he was considered the best pf ever and he really was a remarkable player who had the misfortune to face a dynasty with a pair of old guard with unremarkable athleticism in their mid-30s, neither of whom were strong scoring threats against athletic wing D. I feel bad that Malone never had his Penny/Kobe, because he really was awesome. Erving will get traction, but later on.

See but the same post season drop exist with KG, but no body cares due to this wave of KG momentum to me it's a huge double standard

[tsherkin]

Malone's dip from RS to PS hurts him as much as his lack of a ring, I think.

.

In the main thread I posted his career(not peak or prime) PS numbers. They are obscene by any standards. This is a false narrative that Im hoping this thread can start to correct.

He drops off some in efficiency to be sure, but his career PS numbers are something some guys already getting voted in would like to have and these arent empty numbers either. Punishing him too much for a drop-off in TS% considering how good he still was in the PS would be silly.

I don't agree, because i think it's a fundamental flaw in his style of play which causes it, as it did with Robinson... But it will be fun to discusswhen he comes up!

[tsherkin]

Malone's dip from RS to PS hurts him as much as his lack of a ring, I think.

For a long time, he was considered the best pf ever and he really was a remarkable player who had the misfortune to face a dynasty with a pair of old guard with unremarkable athleticism in their mid-30s, neither of whom were strong scoring threats against athletic wing D. I feel bad that Malone never had his Penny/Kobe, because he really was awesome. Erving will get traction, but later on.

See but the same post season drop exist with KG, but no body cares due to this wave of KG momentum to me it's a huge double standard

I have been arguing such. RAPM has tried to override me, but I've something to post on the topic tomorrow.

[Baller2014]

Malone's dip from RS to PS hurts him as much as his lack of a ring, I think.

For a long time, he was considered the best pf ever and he really was a remarkable player who had the misfortune to face a dynasty with a pair of old guard with unremarkable athleticism in their mid-30s, neither of whom were strong scoring threats against athletic wing D. I feel bad that Malone never had his Penny/Kobe, because he really was awesome. Erving will get traction, but later on.

See but the same post season drop exist with KG, but no body cares due to this wave of KG momentum to me it's a huge double standard

That and the fact PER should never be the basis for any argument whatever. In fairness though, I think a bunch of the KG voters like RonnyMac, Realbig3, maybe me, etc, will swing round to Karl Malone now, so there are at least some people being consistent about this stuff. You should start preparing a Karl Malone mega post for next thread. I posted my one on Duncan as the first post on thread#3, and it helped get the Duncan conversation going. Something like that, complete with videos, would help IMO. I thought about doing it, but I won't get time in the next 8-9 hours, plus I'm still not sure Karl Malone should come before Erving.

[Texas Chuck]

Karl Malone career regular season stats: 25.0 PPG/10.1 RPG/3.6 APG, 23.9 PER, 57.7% TS, 20.5 WS/48 in 37.2 MPG in 1476 games

Karl Malone career playoff stats: 24.7 PPG/10.7 RPG/3.2 APG, 21.1 PER, 52.6% TS, 14.0 WS/48 in 41.0 MPG in 193 games

So, I think the notion of Mailman being a bad playoff performer is based on his decline in terms of PER, TS% and WS/48, pretty much the most popular "advanced" stats. Colts18 posted this chart in the #9 thread:
.

Right this is what Im arguing against tho. Why are we judging him against his own RS as opposed to judging him against other players? I mean look at those playoff numbers over a huge playoff sample of nearly 200 games. This isnt peak--its his entire career and other than his TS% it looks great. And when you look at his actual FG% its more than respectable---actually the same as Dirk's for instance. He doesnt get teh bump from 3's and he doesnt shoot FTs as well as Dirk so the TS% isnt as good. Obviously I don't think he's as good overall offensively in the PS as Dirk, but compared to other bigs---he's right up there.

I just hate the idea of judging someone based on a drop if the level they drop to is still better than almost everyone else who ever played.