When it comes to watching summer league performances, I have a few rules:
1. Look for production over inefficiency
2. Check for size and length issues that caused the player trouble
3. Compare rookies' performances with how they looked as college players
I've watched summer league games for more than a decade, and from that perspective, one could see that the 2014 rookie class thrilled many fans in Las Vegas and Orlando. This class has every chance to be remembered as elite, which is why the attendance numbers in Las Vegas rocketed.
The lines to get into these games were often long, with nearly standing-room only. So as we bookend Insider's Summer School series, let's take a look at the six most popular guys. They excited fans, executives and the media more than any other players, and were the reason why so many flocked to Thomas & Mack Arena and the Cox Pavilion.
Andrew Wiggins | SG | Cleveland Cavaliers
In his first summer league game, Wiggins was matched up against Milwaukee's Jabari Parker. Wiggins quickly made it clear he had heard his limit of the "not assertive enough" criticism that echoed during his season at Kansas and through the NBA draft.
Wiggins was aggressive with his shot attempts throughout the week. What jumped out at me (I had seen Wiggins play as a high schooler) was the potential he has to be the best racer in the game (I was reminded by Kevin Pelton that Wiggins' mother was a track star). Indeed, Wiggins has incredible upside as a transition finisher and as a perimeter defender, and he also should be an excellent 3-point shooter.
However, he struggled somewhat with play-creation, though most summer league teams don't have a lot of perimeter threats (or defenses focused on stopping the ball no matter who is standing ready to shoot behind the 3-point line) so the paint tends to be far more dense with helpers than we will see in the regular season.
As he learns to read defenses, Wiggins should be an excellent straight line driver. He is not someone who forces plays often, which garners criticism more than it should. He looks to make the easy -- and correct -- play most of the time, a talent that will be even more noticeable and appreciated as he improves and draws defensive attention.
One NBA head coach told me: "[Wiggins] is three to five years away from being a top-5 player in this league." I agree with that assessment, provided he is in Cleveland with coach David Blatt and LeBron James. Both of them would help Wiggins grow as a player the right way.
Jabari Parker | PF | Milwaukee Bucks
It's hard to ignore Parker's lack of conditioning, especially compared to how lean so many of his teammates and competitors were. But you should ignore it. Parker handles himself with a pro's demeanor already, and once he is immersed into that NBA culture, watch the weight drip off. We already knew he had a versatile game -- so polished for such a young player -- but it was the occasional burst of energy or speed that was the most exciting thing to watch.
As he leans out and gets in better overall shape, he will be able to exhibit those kinds of athletic plays more often. Parker will be absolutely devastating when he combines his skillful game of craft, timing and shooting. It would not surprise me to see both Parker and Wiggins absolutely destroy their competition if they returned next summer. Parker is definitely a favorite to win rookie of the year.
Dante Exum | PG/SG | Utah Jazz
The next time someone argues to avoid drafting a player because "he's not ready," remember Exum. He is the newest poster child for the argument against that philosophy. The guy has the look of a star -- do you think Utah cares that he's not yet ready to be a good player even in summer league action?
The fact is, when Exum had the ball in his hands, the gym crackled, even though he rarely did anything good. But the signs were all there. Skilled and long, Exum should be a dynamic guard who can play point guard or shooting guard. He can be an excellent defensive player if coached up well, and in time should at least be able to be a solid perimeter shooter.
But it's his quick burst that has experts excited about his future. He also plays with that aesthetic "coolness" few players possess with the ball in their hands. He'll learn how to play in the next few years, and when that happens, he'll be able to dismantle defenses because of his ability to blow by defenders at the right time. He owns lots of similarities to Kevin Durant. For a point guard, Exum has size (6-foot-5) and quickness advantages, just as Durant possesses as a wing.
Doug McDermott | SF | Chicago Bulls
I have a simple theory about shooters: Players who made 38 percent or better of their 3-pointers through three of four years of college should be great NBA shooters. McDermott never made less than 40 percent of his deep shots in four years of high-level college basketball, so it's very likely we're going to see the same thing from him as a pro.
Summer league got him off to a good start, as he made 11 of his first 21 3s (before going 1-6 in his last game, his fifth game in six days). With the Bulls, he will enjoy many weeks of making half of his 3-point shots -- that's how good a shooter he is.
But he also showed what a solid all-around basketball player he is; no surprise given his success at Creighton. However, given how well players improve under coach Tom Thibodeau, and considering the level at which McDermott already is playing, he has a real chance to grow into a star, or at least very close to one.
T.J. Warren | SG | Phoenix Suns
No one raced into the summer league gyms hoping to see Warren play, but everyone who saw him on the court left raving about him. On offense, he resembled a better scoring version of Luol Deng -- the current version of Deng, mind you -- as Warren routinely made strong plays inside while using terrific body control to finish shots.
Warren looked like a five-year veteran playing against kids. He did a great job working to get involved in the transition game, proving that speed alone is not the only way to score effectively on breaks. He just recognized he had a chance to race out and get open before his opponents did.
To be sure, it was clear he was given the green light to create buckets. He did a beautiful job of this, but as a rookie on a good team it is unlikely he will get those same looks as often as he did during summer league. But Warren also moved smartly without the ball in half-court sets, something he did well at North Carolina State, and that is a skill that fits right in with the Suns' scheme. Warren won't be the best overall NBA player from this class, but he might be the best pure scorer, and in my opinion he was the best overall rookie in Las Vegas.
Nerlens Noel | C | Philadelphia 76ers
Noel did not go into summer league with any expectations except those of his own team. After all, he has played less than one season of basketball at Kentucky and missed his entire first NBA season (hence he is classified as a rookie). However, after a dominating week in Orlando, Noel had everyone in Vegas buzzing.
Noel played just two games in Las Vegas, but he was as frenetic as he was in Florida the previous week. Noel played like a slight combination of Anthony Davis and Kenneth Faried, often being the tallest elite athlete on the court (6-11) while also being the most active. He is noticeably stronger and broader, and it seems likely he will get much stronger still in the next few seasons.
Noel's skills around the basket have gotten better, too, both as a finisher and even with the occasional jump shot. But even without that improvement, he is going to be a force in the paint. Just based on summer league play, Noel probably should have gone No. 1 overall in 2013, not Anthony Bennett (although Bennett had a great summer league and can be a very good player, too). Noel appears to have the best chance at reaching his enormous potential, which makes Philly's drafting of Joel Embiid even more interesting. Might we be able to say the same things about Embiid in a year?
Didn't want it to get lost in the TJ thread or Summer League thread, because they are so old. Stickey ickey ickey if need be.
Makes me very excited. Maybe we aren't homers to believe he could/should start by mid year
