RealGM Top 100 List #12

[ceiling raiser]

I'm not sure who to vote for here. Even if the data on Oscar/West is a bit noisy, I do think both guys were impact players defensively. I don't know how much of what they did on that end would translate to today's game:

1) West had a freaky long wingspan and was pretty athletic overall.

2) Oscar seemed to be extremely strong for a guard.

West at the least seemed to consistently give effort on that end. I haven't read about whether Oscar did a well for most of his career, but I believe it was posted that he did so during his time on the Bucks.

Going into the project I had Oscar clearly ahead of West, now I'm not so sure.

Kobe is a known quantity at this point and the one I feel most confident about. However with the unknowns regarding Oscar/West, I don't know if I'll be able to properly justify a vote at this point.

There hasn't been a lot of talk about Robinson BTW. Is the longevity still a deal-breaker at this point? Not saying it should/shouldn't be, but we do know a few things:

1) He gives you 7 quality seasons before going down to injury. Though he missed the 92 playoffs, so we have to keep that in mind.

2) After coming back, 3 more pretty good seasons. 3 more years at the end of his career, during which he was still one of the best defenders in the league.

So I'm wondering...

How far off do we feel Robinson's pre-injury seasons are from prime Magic/Bird in terms of impact? How much worse are his post-injury seasons than his pre-injury seasons? How do his pre-injury and post-injury seasons compare to Kobe/Oscar (who are the leading votegetters here)? There's obviously a spectrum for healthiness/longevity ranging from Walton to Malone, but how deep does one have to get in the project until it's no longer an eliminating disadvantage for Robinson?

[PCProductions]

Vote: Dirk Nowitzki

Surprised that we don't have a lot voters for Dirk here. He and Kobe are neck and neck for their careers, but I think Dirk's slightly better portability and defense are what bump him one spot above Kobe for me.

Dirk has an outstanding prime just like Kobe from 2002-2011 and, like Kobe as well, has non-prime years that move the needle for his career in a non-trivial way (2012, 2014). They're both terrific playoff performers and have had their ups and downs in the postseason.

Drza's post in this thread comparing the two was very informative and thought-provoking, and I had to make my own decision on whom I decided between since it's close to a draw. I just like Nowitzki's game a little bit better from both a defensive standpoint and his ability to more easily fit into different offenses as we've seen with his entire tenure in Dallas.

Also, while Kobe might be close in box stats to Dirk, it isn't very close in regards to RAPM and +/- stats, so I think Dirk has to be rewarded for that. And yes, I put enough stock in that research to give it enough merit to make me vote for one guy over another. Also, Dirk is remarkably consistent in impact stats, and says that he might be underrated defensively throughout his career.

I will admit that it feels kind of wrong to let Kobe fall so low, but Dirk is very worthy of being voted in here, if you ask me.

[Basketballefan]

2003- I don't use +/- and said why i believe they're flawed so i'm not going to buy any arguments based on that. Kobe was clearly better imo, scored much more on comparable efficiency, better passer, and far better defender, and had a higher PER. Who cares that Shaq was still the best player on that squad? He would've been if Dirk was there instead of Kobe. Kobe>Dirk that year quite clearly, deal with it.

Why were the Mavs significantly better than the Lakers in 2003? 8 SRS to 3 SRS? Why did Kobe go 5-10 without Shaq? If he was the #2 player in the league, there is no reason for him to go 5-10.

I don't recall saying Kobe was the 2nd best player in the league. Duncan and Kg were probably the 2 best. 15 games is a damn small sample size and it would be because the Mavs were much better than a Shaq-less Lakers.

[lorak]

re: what happened with Royals offense in 1970

I'm watching one Cincinnati's game from that season (vs Warriors) and there's one more very important reason why offense was so worse (mentioned earlier: Cousy, different style, injury) - Oscar simply played a lot off the ball! He and rookie Van Lier shared duties as playmakers. Of course it's just one game, but Van Lier averaged over 6 assist per game that year and you can't do that as 6-1 rookie guard unless you have ball often in your hands. So it's another pro Oscar argument, because it shows that less ball in his hands = much worse offense.

[ceiling raiser]

re: what happened with Royals offense in 1970

I'm watching one Cincinnati's game from that season (vs Warriors) and there's one more very important reason why offense was so worse (mentioned earlier: Cousy, different style, injury) - Oscar simply played a lot off the ball! He and rookie Van Lier shared duties as playmakers. Of course it's just one game, but Van Lier averaged over 6 assist per game that year and you can't do that as 6-1 rookie guard unless you have ball often in your hands. So it's another pro Oscar argument, because it shows that less ball in his hands = much worse offense.

Just wondering, could Oscar guard 1-3 from what you've seen?

What do you think we should make of the off/def data? Who so you think are comparable defenders in today's league who are/were similar to him/West on that end?

[colts18]

re: what happened with Royals offense in 1970

I'm watching one Cincinnati's game from that season (vs Warriors) and there's one more very important reason why offense was so worse (mentioned earlier: Cousy, different style, injury) - Oscar simply played a lot off the ball! He and rookie Van Lier shared duties as playmakers. Of course it's just one game, but Van Lier averaged over 6 assist per game that year and you can't do that as 6-1 rookie guard unless you have ball often in your hands. So it's another pro Oscar argument, because it shows that less ball in his hands = much worse offense.

What's the argument for Oscar over Nash? Nash has better in/outs, team impact, better offenses (much better), and their team defenses were comparable. Why should Oscar be ahead of Nash?

[drza]

There hasn't been a lot of talk about Robinson BTW. Is the longevity still a deal-breaker at this point? Not saying it should/shouldn't be, but we do know a few things:

1) He gives you 7 quality seasons before going down to injury. Though he missed the 92 playoffs, so we have to keep that in mind.

2) After coming back, 3 more pretty good seasons. 3 more years at the end of his career, during which he was still one of the best defenders in the league.

So I'm wondering...

How far off do we feel Robinson's pre-injury seasons are from prime Magic/Bird in terms of impact? How much worse are his post-injury seasons than his pre-injury seasons? How do his pre-injury and post-injury seasons compare to Kobe/Oscar (who are the leading votegetters here)? There's obviously a spectrum for healthiness/longevity ranging from Walton to Malone, but how deep does one have to get in the project until it's no longer an eliminating disadvantage for Robinson?

I started working on a big Robinson vs. Karl Malone post last night (similar in style to the Kobe/Dirk one I posted) but life interfered and I didn't get to finish. Now I'm at work and can't continue it yet. And by the time I get to it, likely this thread will be right on the verge of starting the run-off (which looks to be between Kobe and Oscar). So I may table that post, and instead look more at the two guards when I post again.

That said, as part of that Robinson post I was tackling the exact thing you pointed out. You ever start writing, then really look at the data and realize your initial point in writing might be wrong? That's what's happening here with me. I started off covering the massive gulf between Malone's longevity (14 prime years, 20 overall) and Robinson's (6 prime years with 1 injured at the end, then several more "sidekick years"). But the more I looked into Robinson's "sidekick" years, the better those years started looking. I'm starting to be reasonably convinced that Robinson's longevity is very comparable to Bird's. And Bird is already in, so from here I'll have to really weigh out just how good I think Robinson actually was at his best.

[E-Balla]

Vote: Dirk Nowitzki

Surprised that we don't have a lot voters for Dirk here. He and Kobe are neck and neck for their careers, but I think Dirk's slightly better portability and defense are what bump him one spot above Kobe for me.

Dirk has an outstanding prime just like Kobe from 2002-2011 and, like Kobe as well, has non-prime years that move the needle for his career in a non-trivial way (2012, 2014). They're both terrific playoff performers and have had their ups and downs in the postseason.

Drza's post in this thread comparing the two was very informative and thought-provoking, and I had to make my own decision on whom I decided between since it's close to a draw. I just like Nowitzki's game a little bit better from both a defensive standpoint and his ability to more easily fit into different offenses as we've seen with his entire tenure in Dallas.

Also, while Kobe might be close in box stats to Dirk, it isn't very close in regards to RAPM and +/- stats, so I think Dirk has to be rewarded for that. And yes, I put enough stock in that research to give it enough merit to make me vote for one guy over another. Also, Dirk is remarkably consistent in impact stats, and says that he might be underrated defensively throughout his career.

I will admit that it feels kind of wrong to let Kobe fall so low, but Dirk is very worthy of being voted in here, if you ask me.

What? Kobe comes out on top.

Multi year samples:

The 02-11 (best one IMO because this is both players' primes and if anything Kobe wasn't in his prime in 2011 and it excludes 2001) RAPM has Kobe at +6.1 and Dirk at +5.6 (so during what even you called Dirk's prime Kobe was better according to RAPM).

The 04-09 RAPM has Kobe at +7.1 and Dirk at +6.1.

According to Doc MJ's scaled RAPM Dirk comes out barely above Kobe (and the study excludes 2001 and the last 2 seasons so I'll call it even).

In no way shape or form does Dirk come out clearly ahead of Kobe in +/- when looking at full careers.

Common misconception about Kobe is that advanced stats don't love him but outside of Lebron, Shaq, and KG no one can say they aren't within punching range of Kobe.

[acrossthecourt]

I looked into Kobe's offense versus elite defenses, and I came up with the same conclusion as ElGee. I used seasons 2000 through 2013, dropped some of the seasons at the end, narrowed the band, and he was still losing about 1.5 efficiency points per 1 unit increase in the opposition's defense. That's horrible. It's worse for David Robinson, and that's what he's known for.

And yes, I used relative efficiency both for Kobe and team defenses. This has absolutely no bearing on the average efficiency of the league. People keep bringing this up, but it is not an issue.


For example, here are basic summary stats (note: I just used a simple average of ortg's, so it's not precise but gets the job done. That is not what I did above. I just wanted to illustrate how bad it was quickly.)

Efficiency versus >3 defenses (bad ones):
118.6

Efficiency versus <-3 defenses (good ones):
105.5

It's four points less per 100 possessions, and his usage is virtually unchanged. (Goes up by 0.3 versus <-3 defenses.)

Narrowing it to his best seasons, 2006 to 2009 and it's even worse:
118.9 versus 105.3.

[acrossthecourt]

Vote: Dirk Nowitzki

Surprised that we don't have a lot voters for Dirk here. He and Kobe are neck and neck for their careers, but I think Dirk's slightly better portability and defense are what bump him one spot above Kobe for me.

Dirk has an outstanding prime just like Kobe from 2002-2011 and, like Kobe as well, has non-prime years that move the needle for his career in a non-trivial way (2012, 2014). They're both terrific playoff performers and have had their ups and downs in the postseason.

Drza's post in this thread comparing the two was very informative and thought-provoking, and I had to make my own decision on whom I decided between since it's close to a draw. I just like Nowitzki's game a little bit better from both a defensive standpoint and his ability to more easily fit into different offenses as we've seen with his entire tenure in Dallas.

Also, while Kobe might be close in box stats to Dirk, it isn't very close in regards to RAPM and +/- stats, so I think Dirk has to be rewarded for that. And yes, I put enough stock in that research to give it enough merit to make me vote for one guy over another. Also, Dirk is remarkably consistent in impact stats, and says that he might be underrated defensively throughout his career.

I will admit that it feels kind of wrong to let Kobe fall so low, but Dirk is very worthy of being voted in here, if you ask me.

What? Kobe comes out on top.

Multi year samples:

The 02-11 (best one IMO because this is both players' primes and if anything Kobe wasn't in his prime in 2011 and it excludes 2001) RAPM has Kobe at +6.1 and Dirk at +5.6.

The 04-09 RAPM has Kobe at +7.1 and Dirk at +6.1.

According to Doc MJ's scaled RAPM Dirk comes out barely above Kobe (and the study excludes 2001 and the last 2 seasons so I'll call it even).

In no way shape or form does Dirk come out clearly ahead of Kobe in +/- when looking at full careers.

The 01 to 14 one has Dirk at +7.1 and Kobe at +5.0. I believe this has better early 00's files, and I don't think Kobe fans will hate the inclusion of 2001 or even 2013, whereas Dirk had a poor (relatively speaking) 2013.

[penbeast0]

Common misconception about Kobe is that advanced stats don't love him but outside of Lebron, Shaq, and KG no one can say they aren't within elbowing range of Kobe.

fixed

[penbeast0]

Spoiler:

re: what happened with Royals offense in 1970

I'm watching one Cincinnati's game from that season (vs Warriors) and there's one more very important reason why offense was so worse (mentioned earlier: Cousy, different style, injury) - Oscar simply played a lot off the ball! He and rookie Van Lier shared duties as playmakers. Of course it's just one game, but Van Lier averaged over 6 assist per game that year and you can't do that as 6-1 rookie guard unless you have ball often in your hands. So it's another pro Oscar argument, because it shows that less ball in his hands = much worse offense.

Just wondering, could Oscar guard 1-3 from what you've seen?

What do you think we should make of the off/def data? Who so you think are comparable defenders in today's league who are/were similar to him/West on that end?

He has an easier time with 3's than with 1's due to his size/strength match. With no 3 point line, however, he can bully a lot of 1's and it's harder to make him pay.

[Quotatious]

Common misconception about Kobe is that advanced stats don't love him but outside of Lebron, Shaq, and KG no one can say they aren't within punching range of Kobe.

If you include Garnett, you also have to mention Duncan.

fixed

[penbeast0]

Kobe 9 (Ardee, Basketballefan, batmana, GC Pantalones, JordanBulls, ShaqAttack3234, lukekarts, john248, DHodgkins)
Oscar 8 ( DannyNoonan1221, DQuinn1575, Heartbreakkid, lorak, Narigo, Owly, Quotatious, SactoKingsFan)

K. Malone 5 (baller2014, FJS, magicmerl, therealbig3, trex_8063)
West 2 (penbeast, RayBan-Sematra)
Dr J 2 ( Clyde Frazier, Warspite)
Drob 1 ( shutupandjam)
Dirk 1 (PCProductions)

Warning: I will be out tonight so I will be calling this very close to 5PM EST.

[JLei]

Spoiler:

Kobe 10 (Ardee, Basketballefan, batmana, GC Pantalones, JordanBulls, ShaqAttack3234, lukekarts, john248, lukekarts, DHodgkins)
Oscar 8 ( DannyNoonan1221, DQuinn1575, Heartbreakkid, lorak, Narigo, Owly, Quotatious, SactoKingsFan)

K. Malone 5 (baller2014, FJS, magicmerl, therealbig3, trex_8063)
West 2 (penbeast, RayBan-Sematra)
Dr J 2 ( Clyde Frazier, Warspite)
Drob 1 ( shutupandjam)
Dirk 1 (PCProductions)

Warning: I will be out tonight so I will be calling this very close to 5PM EST.

You counted lukekarts twice. Kobe has 9.

Thanks

[E-Balla]

Common misconception about Kobe is that advanced stats don't love him but outside of Lebron, Shaq, and KG no one can say they aren't within elbowing range of Kobe.

fixed

Vote: Dirk Nowitzki

Surprised that we don't have a lot voters for Dirk here. He and Kobe are neck and neck for their careers, but I think Dirk's slightly better portability and defense are what bump him one spot above Kobe for me.

Dirk has an outstanding prime just like Kobe from 2002-2011 and, like Kobe as well, has non-prime years that move the needle for his career in a non-trivial way (2012, 2014). They're both terrific playoff performers and have had their ups and downs in the postseason.

Drza's post in this thread comparing the two was very informative and thought-provoking, and I had to make my own decision on whom I decided between since it's close to a draw. I just like Nowitzki's game a little bit better from both a defensive standpoint and his ability to more easily fit into different offenses as we've seen with his entire tenure in Dallas.

Also, while Kobe might be close in box stats to Dirk, it isn't very close in regards to RAPM and +/- stats, so I think Dirk has to be rewarded for that. And yes, I put enough stock in that research to give it enough merit to make me vote for one guy over another. Also, Dirk is remarkably consistent in impact stats, and says that he might be underrated defensively throughout his career.

I will admit that it feels kind of wrong to let Kobe fall so low, but Dirk is very worthy of being voted in here, if you ask me.

What? Kobe comes out on top.

Multi year samples:

The 02-11 (best one IMO because this is both players' primes and if anything Kobe wasn't in his prime in 2011 and it excludes 2001) RAPM has Kobe at +6.1 and Dirk at +5.6.

The 04-09 RAPM has Kobe at +7.1 and Dirk at +6.1.

According to Doc MJ's scaled RAPM Dirk comes out barely above Kobe (and the study excludes 2001 and the last 2 seasons so I'll call it even).

In no way shape or form does Dirk come out clearly ahead of Kobe in +/- when looking at full careers.

The 01 to 14 one has Dirk at +7.1 and Kobe at +5.0. I believe this has better early 00's files, and I don't think Kobe fans will hate the inclusion of 2001 or even 2013, whereas Dirk had a poor (relatively speaking) 2013.

I never saw that one before and I'm wondering why those numbers would stray so far from their prime numbers from 02-11. I'd still personally look at 02-11 because it perfectly lines up with Dirk's prime.

Also these numbers aren't really trustworthy from the early part of the century.

[penbeast0]

That was a weird flash . . . early part of the century being 2000-2002 rather than early 1900s (or for basketball, people complaining about unreliable data are usually talking about the 50s or early ABA).

As a history teacher, I spend a lot of my time living in the past.

[shutupandjam]

The 01 to 14 one has Dirk at +7.1 and Kobe at +5.0. I believe this has better early 00's files, and I don't think Kobe fans will hate the inclusion of 2001 or even 2013, whereas Dirk had a poor (relatively speaking) 2013.

I never saw that one before and I'm wondering why those numbers would stray so far from their prime numbers from 02-11. I'd still personally look at 02-11 because it perfectly lines up with Dirk's prime.

The 2001-2014 sample (thread here) is definitely the best long term rapm sample to use because it accounts for aging (among other things).

Also these numbers aren't really trustworthy from the early part of the century.

Why? It's the exact same thing, JE parsed 2001, 2002, etc in this sample the same way he did 2013 and 2014...

[colts18]

I never saw that one before and I'm wondering why those numbers would stray so far from their prime numbers from 02-11. I'd still personally look at 02-11 because it perfectly lines up with Dirk's prime.

Also these numbers aren't really trustworthy from the early part of the century.

Dirk generally came out more favorably than Kobe in RAPM.

06-11 6 year RAPM (Dirk and Kobe's prime):
Dirk: +8.2 (2nd overall)
Kobe: +4.6 (13th)

08-11 4 year RAPM:
Dirk: +7.8 (3rd)
Kobe: +4.8 (15th)

01-14 14 year RAPM:
Dirk: +7.4 (5th)
Kobe: +5.3 (15th)

[ronnymac2]

Vote: Kobe Bryant

So after thinking it over, I like both Kobe's peak and overall prime a tiny bit better than Karl Malone's. Malone certainly does have the longevity edge, but I don't think those extra pluses for Malone give him the edge when Kobe has the edge for the majority of their careers. It's very close though.

Malone's peak is underrated here though. He wasn't a playoff failure. On the contrary, his playoff peak is quite impressive considering the offensive load he had to carry against elite defensive teams. Bryant and Malone are a lot alike in that regard.

In the end, I like prime Kobe's offensive creativity and the perimeter scorer/creator a little more. Malone's defense is phenomenal (and underrated), but not quite enough here.