RealGM Top 100 List #13

[MistyMountain20]

Spoiler:

Playing next to Kobe helped take the pressure off Pau, I already said that. But the degree to which it helped has been totally distorted by GC Pan using only a 27 game sample that Pau never reached again, and comparing it to another small sample (that is also not consistent with regular Pau). Pau's TS% in the 2 years before he got to LA (in 06 and 07) was equal to Pau's TS% 2 years after he got to LA (in 2010), and only moderately lower than 2009, so it's obvious the 27 game sample is inappropriate to use.

Career ORTG for Pau from 05-11:
05 - 112
06 - 111
07 - 115
08 Memphis - 114
08 Lakers - 128
09 - 126
10 - 120
11 - 123

There is a clear increase once he gets to LA.

You stopping at 2011 made me curious, so I went and looked up Pau's ORTG in 2012 - 2014. And it brings up a Devil's advocate question: how much of that increase once he gets to LAL should be attributed to Phil Jackson and the triangle offense? Because if you put a bit more detail and continue your chart of Pau''s ORTGs through the years:

05 - 112 Memphis
06 - 111 Memphis
07 - 115 Memphis
08 Memphis - 114
08 Lakers - 128
09 - 126 Lakers with Kobe and Phil
10 - 120 Lakers with Kobe and Phil
11 - 123 Lakers with Kobe and Phil
12 - 112 Lakers with Kobe but no Phil
13 - 107 Lakers with Kobe but no Phil and Pau injuries
14 - 102 Lakers with no Kobe, no Phil and Pau Injuries

It's always difficult to tease out patterns, but it sure looks to me that Phil Jackson and the Triangle offense were more the limiting factor for Pau's huge efficiency bump than Kobe was. In 2012 Kobe and Pau were both present and healthy enough to play almost every game, but Phil was gone and Pau's efficiency fell all the way back to the level that it used to be in Memphis.

Plus, this is a narrative that makes some sense, right? Pau was seemingly born to play in the Triangle with his passing ability and comfort making decisions. To an extent, Odom was too for similar reasons. And the Triangle has to-date proven to be the best offense for harnessing mega-high scoring SGs into a strong team offense.

I'm not saying having a talented teammate like Kobe wasn't helpful to Pau's efficiency...I'd think that it may have played a benefit as well. But at a first pass, it certainly looks like the sea-change difference was more about Pau getting integrated into the Triangle.

I'd say it's a combination of Pau's diminishing abilities as well as the shift away from him as the focal point in the interior. If you remember, Bynum that year was being featured more and more that year and was more of a focal point than Pau. Then of course the year after was the debacle with Howard where he prioritized over Pau to placate Howard. The system may have also had an impact, but there were other things going on during that time.

[acrossthecourt]

People are doubting Bryant's defense. They seem to believe all those all-defensive team that are voted on by the coaches came from nowhere, which seems pretty silly. There's a reason he got that defensive rep in the first place.

I think you're misunderstanding a position you don't hold. Kobe was great at defense during the first 3-peat. His defensive rep and awards during that time are well earned. However, once Shaq was run out of town and Kobe didn't have to share the ball any more, he coasted on defense so he had more energy for offense.

I would argue that his defensive awards since that time are largely based on rep and not merited by reality.

Why would coaches care about reputation? They gameplan around players on a nightly basis, and watch more game film than any of us. Why hasn't Wade gotten "rep" votes? Why haven't other great defenders gotten "rep" votes?

The All-D teams are 2nd most reliable award out there behind All-NBA teams. Where are all these 'rep" votes? http://www.basketball-reference.com/awa ... fense.html

Synergy is an awful way to judge defense and it's completely untested.

Novak famously had one of the best defensive ratings on Synergy in 2013. Why? Most of that is because they put him on weak defenders.

Kobe post-Shaq was mostly hidden on weaker defenders to conserve him for defense.

And the flaws we're talking about can't be picked up by Synergy well: team/help defense!

James Harden got votes for All-D team this year. That should tell you what you need to know about the award. It's the NBA version of the Gold Glove.

From 2005-2007, when Nash was on the court, his team had a 106.7 D rating. When Kobe was on the court his teams had a 108.8 D rating. If Kobe was so great defensively, why did his team finish last in defense during his prime? Why was his teams worse defensively than the Mike D'Antoni Suns?

When guys start implying Nash is a better defender than Kobe its probably time to move on, no?I get why Colts18 is using Nash here since he's promoting Nash for this spot, but it really illustrates that its time to talk about something else.

The guys who think Kobe's D is overrated aren't going to change their minds based on All-D teams or the breaking down of one of Kobe's games and the guys convinced he was playing all-time great defense throughout his career aren't going to be convinced based on statistical evidence to the contrary.

I don't think he was implying Nash is a better defender than Kobe.

Rather Nash is brought up in that circumstance to prove logically that Kobe wasn't a plus defender. If Kobe can't lead his team to a better defensive rating than Nash can on the Suns, then it stands to reason Kobe isn't that great.

Too bad DRTG means nothing. Read up on how its calculated and I bet you'll never use it again in this context (especially in this context).

Hey, I know it's based on box score stats and those don't capture defense very well. But I still think that it's telling that Kobe is the WORST on his team, which coincides with the eyeball narrative of him conserving energy on defense so he can consume more possessions on offense.

Just as telling as Bruce Bowen constantly having the lowest DRTG on the Spurs. It means absolutely nothing when used as a comparison between teammates. Nada, zilch, zero.

Ryan Anderson's defensive rating went from like the 94th percentile to the 17th in two years.

I'm linking this because I specifically wrote it as a warning to those who use DWS:
http://ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt.bl ... etely.html

According to Drtg, Boozer > Deng and Gibson:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/2014.html

...and Lee and Iguodala are basically the same, whereas Curry > Thompson:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/GSW/2014.html

See the problem? There's a systematic error in that bad defenders who rack up box score stats will be overrated, especially rebounding bigs who play matador defense.

(Not directed at you, GC, but anyone who wants to use Drtg.)

[ShaqAttack3234]

it has to be Kobe now. I was torn between Kobe and Oscar, but I'm not seeing anyone else except for maybe Barkley who can compare individual now.

Kobe's individual offensive ability is something rarely seen. There simply haven't been many others who can carry a team at a comparable level with scoring, but Kobe was also one of the best playmaking wings of his generation, and would rank in the higher-tier all-time in that regard. He's also a fine rebounder for a guard and while prime Kobe wasn't as consistent as young Kobe defensively, he still had lockdown potential and would use it in some big match ups, and while you have to judge a player by what he does rather than what he's capable of doing, this is still important because we'd see Kobe step up defensively in the playoffs.

Kobe jump started a 31-9 finish to the season for the 2003 Lakers when Phil essentially made him the first option and Kobe responded with 9 consecutive 40+ games and 13 straight 35+ games. Then, Kobe carried the 2006 and 2007 Lakers to top 7-8 offenses with horrible casts, and did so with volume scoring streaks not seen in this era. Finally, Kobe gets some help midway through the 2008 season after leading the Lakers to a start that exceeded expectations, and the 2008 Lakers go 22-4 in the regular season with Gasol, then dominate the Western Conference playoffs(and this was a West with eight 50+ win teams, and Kobe led his Lakers to the best record in the conference). So that showed that those who said Kobe needed help in 2006 and 2007 were correct. Kobe showed what he could do in 2008 and 2009 with some help with the best record in the West and a finals appearance in 2008 followed by a 65-17 season and a championship in 2009, while leading top 3 offenses both seasons.

Prime Kobe was unstoppable. Had all-time great footwork and could get his own shot from anywhere at any time whether it was an outside shot, mid-range shot, in the post, or attacking the basket, particularly 2003-2008 Kobe, and on top of that, he was a very good playmaker who would regularly draw extra defenders because of his incredible scoring ability, but was a skilled passer and mature enough from the 2001 playoffs on to consistently find the open man and help run the offense. For a clinic in game management, facilitating and when to take over, just watch 2008 Kobe.

Kobe also raised his game in the playoffs, like only the true upper echelon greats do.

Prime 2003-2009 Kobe

Regular Season- 29.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 5.3 apg, 3.2 TO, 1.7 spg, 45.3 FG%, 35.1 3P%, 49.1 eFG%, 84.7 FT%, 56.3 TS%, 534 games
Playoffs- 29 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 5.4 apg, 3.2 TO, 1.6 spg, 45.1 FG%, 32.7 3P%, 48.6 eFG%, 83.5 FT%, 55 TS%, 90 games

And Kobe was close to that level for even longer, 10 seasons from 2001-2010

Regular Season- 28.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 5.2 apg, 3.1 TO, 1.7 spg, 45.6 FG%, 34.2 3P%, 48.9 eFG%, 84.3 FT%, 55.9 TS%, 755 games
Playoffs- 28.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 5.4 apg, 3.2 TO, 1.5 spg, 45.2 FG%, 34.1 3P%, 48.6 eFG%, 82.5 FT%, 54.8 TS%, 148 games

That's a lot of basketball at an extremely high level. How many other players can you find with a collection of finals runs like Kobe's in 2001, 2008, 2009 and 2010? Or dominant series like Kobe's WCF in 2001, 2009 and 2010? Nevermind the other great series Kobe has had in the first 2 rounds of the playoffs, like his 2008 and 2010 WCSF, another great WCF in 2008 ect.

My guess is if you find someone comparable, they've already been voted.

And I have to laugh at the comment that Kobe benefited from Shaq individually as much as Malone benefited from Stockton. Anyone who watched both play, and saw how their games related to their teammates will know this is nonsense. Besides, most of Kobe's prime was without Shaq anyway, and he didn't seem to have too much trouble once he became the number 1 option with the defense focused primarily on him from 2005 on. After all, the man led back to back top 3 offenses in '08 and '09, averaged 35 ppg on good efficiency for that volume, and that feat came with virtually no help, won back to back titles with great playoff runs.

So I think people are about a decade late with the "Kobe is a product of Shaq" stuff.

Just compare how Kobe has been talked about by highly respected players and coaches such as Bird, Jordan, Popovich ect. to Malone. Malone wasn't thought of how Kobe is. And I intentionally left out coaches and players who may have a personal bias to Kobe.

[magicmerl]

Statistical peaks of various big men

Code: Select all

Player             Season   ORB   DRB    TRB   AST   STL   BLK   TOV    PTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tim Duncan        2001-02   3.3   9.4   12.7   3.7   0.7   2.5   3.2   25.5
Kevin Garnett     2003-04   3.0  10.9   13.9   5.0   1.5   2.2   2.6   24.2
Karl Malone       1989-90   2.8   8.3   11.1   2.8   1.5   0.6   3.7   31.0
Moses Malone      1981-82   6.9   7.8   14.7   1.8   0.9   1.5   3.6   31.1
Shaquille O'Neal  1999-00   4.3   9.4   13.6   3.8   0.5   3.0   2.8   29.7
David Robinson    1993-94   3.0   7.7   10.7   4.8   1.7   3.3   3.2   29.8

I think that would be a much more useful comparison on a per100possession basis.

[drza]

Spoiler:

Career ORTG for Pau from 05-11:
05 - 112
06 - 111
07 - 115
08 Memphis - 114
08 Lakers - 128
09 - 126
10 - 120
11 - 123

There is a clear increase once he gets to LA.

You stopping at 2011 made me curious, so I went and looked up Pau's ORTG in 2012 - 2014. And it brings up a Devil's advocate question: how much of that increase once he gets to LAL should be attributed to Phil Jackson and the triangle offense? Because if you put a bit more detail and continue your chart of Pau''s ORTGs through the years:

05 - 112 Memphis
06 - 111 Memphis
07 - 115 Memphis
08 Memphis - 114
08 Lakers - 128
09 - 126 Lakers with Kobe and Phil
10 - 120 Lakers with Kobe and Phil
11 - 123 Lakers with Kobe and Phil
12 - 112 Lakers with Kobe but no Phil
13 - 107 Lakers with Kobe but no Phil and Pau injuries
14 - 102 Lakers with no Kobe, no Phil and Pau Injuries

It's always difficult to tease out patterns, but it sure looks to me that Phil Jackson and the Triangle offense were more the limiting factor for Pau's huge efficiency bump than Kobe was. In 2012 Kobe and Pau were both present and healthy enough to play almost every game, but Phil was gone and Pau's efficiency fell all the way back to the level that it used to be in Memphis.

Plus, this is a narrative that makes some sense, right? Pau was seemingly born to play in the Triangle with his passing ability and comfort making decisions. To an extent, Odom was too for similar reasons. And the Triangle has to-date proven to be the best offense for harnessing mega-high scoring SGs into a strong team offense.

I'm not saying having a talented teammate like Kobe wasn't helpful to Pau's efficiency...I'd think that it may have played a benefit as well. But at a first pass, it certainly looks like the sea-change difference was more about Pau getting integrated into the Triangle.

Spoiler:

Pau was washed up by then. After his performance in the 2011 playoffs everyone knew it and he never played at the level he did before (also Pau was injured most of 2012 too). He shot 42% from the field in the 2011 playoffs and there were even rumors that he was playing bad because either Shannon Brown slept with his girlfriend or Vanessa Bryant convinced her to leave Pau. Pau said it wasn't true and that he had tired legs (I totally believe him) but it's clear he didn't fall off gracefully but instead he hit his post prime like a brick wall.

Now I will say the triangle helped too (I made a note to say Kobe and Phil helped him elevate his game) but Kobe was the main playmaker in that offense and he helped Pau a lot. Pau fell off before Phil left (in the playoffs) and Kobe might not have been such a great teammate outside the triangle but just like the only other SG to get selected (and the only other SG in contention) he played in a great offensive system where they moved the ball (Jerry West and the Princeton offense/MJ and the Triangle being the other 2). If I didn't hold it against Jordan and I'm not going to hold it against West I won't hold it against Kobe.

A quick trip to the NBA stats page can fix this (this uses NBA.com's horrid pace calculation so his efficiency will be lower than it should be):

Pau with Kobe 2009: 114.1 ORTG
Pau without Kobe: 100.7 ORTG

Pau with Kobe 2010: 109.7 ORTG
Pau without Kobe: 103.8 ORTG

Pau with Kobe 2011: 111.3 ORG
Pau without Kobe: 104.1 ORTG

Pau ORTG in 2007: 106.5
Pau ORTG in last full season with Memphis (full meaning he played at least 2500 minutes so 2006): 104.3 ORTG

Basically without Kobe on the floor Pau was regular old Memphis Pau. I checked for Kobe too and he didn't get any more efficient with Pau out there with him fwiw.

Spoiler:

Pau wasn't the same after the debacle with his GF in 2011, and 2012 was the lockout year where efficiency took a tumble league-wide. the 2-man game he had with Kobe was the big reason for his increased efficiency in LA, not the Tri. Notice, the jump is immediate(before Pau even learned the Tri).

The 2 man game had little to do with Gasol's efficiency bump.


Here are Pau's numbers during the 09 and 10 seasons with and without Kobe on the court (per 36 minutes):

With: 18-10-3, .606 TS%
Without: 20-11-4, .609 TS%

He was simply a better player (in a better system). Nothing to do with 2 man game.

I don't think it's possible that both sets of underlined numbers for Pau in 2009 and 2010 are correct, unless Pau's turnovers just went nuts without Kobe and skewed the ORTGs to that extent which seems far-fetched. Anyone got time to independently confirm which of these is right?

[E-Balla]

Ryan Anderson's defensive rating went from like the 94th percentile to the 17th in two years.

I'm linking this because I specifically wrote it as a warning to those who use DWS:
http://ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt.bl ... etely.html

According to Drtg, Boozer > Deng and Gibson:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/2014.html

...and Lee and Iguodala are basically the same, whereas Curry > Thompson:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/GSW/2014.html

See the problem? There's a systematic error in that bad defenders who rack up box score stats will be overrated, especially rebounding bigs who play matador defense.

(Not directed at you, GC, but anyone who wants to use Drtg.)

Great article. Instead of raving like a mad man about how DRTG is horrible I'll start linking to you instead .

[MistyMountain20]

Why? Most of that is because they put him on weak defenders.

Kobe post-Shaq was mostly hidden on weaker defenders to conserve him for defense.

Can you give specific examples of where Kobe would have been deliberately taken off a specific player. I'm trying to think especially during the 05-07 years who the Lakers would have preferred putting on a stronger player? Butler? Jumaine Jones? Devean George? Luke Walton? Laron Profit? I just can't think of a player at the same position that they would switch Kobe off because the Lakers had no alternatives to put on them (I guess with the exception of Butler in 05). Now he wasn't always switched onto the best player on the court depending on the position at that point, but that's a far cry from being put onto a weaker player if it's positional thing.

Now if you're talking about the Lakers when they had Ariza/Artest during the 09-10, okay sure. They were used as defensive specialists. All the same, Bryant still often played high quality players that in some ways were more crucial in slowing down due to the weaknesses of the Lakers defense. I'm not sure I'm comfortable with the narrative that Kobe was put onto weaker defenders as a regular occurrence.

[PaulieWal]

Why would coaches care about reputation? They gameplan around players on a nightly basis, and watch more game film than any of us. Why hasn't Wade gotten "rep" votes? Why haven't other great defenders gotten "rep" votes?

At the time of the award balloting what most coaches care about is doing their actual job (winning games) so I wouldn't be at all surprised if most of them mail it in with safe picks that 'everybody knows'. All picking an unconventional view could do is create more work in terms of having to answer questions from reporters about why they picked a less mainstream option.

I wouldn't be surprised if coaches let their assistants fill out the ballots and send them in. I remember reading somewhere that a lot of coaches don't fill out the all-star ballots and simply give them to their assistants. Anyway, I said my piece regarding Kobe's defense and judging by the response, I wasn't the only one who thinks that way.

[colts18]

Check the turnovers. Pau coughed the ball up a lot more without kobe on the floor. I posted his ORTG with and without Kobe from 09-11 earlier and his ORTG increase is almost entirely due to Kobe according to those numbers (I say it's 80% Kobe 20% triangle because Kobe without the triangle isn't as dynamic a playmaker).

The O rating numbers you posted aren't his O rating. Those are the Lakers O rating when Pau was on the court with and without Kobe.


Pau definitely increased in Turnovers without Kobe which is expected. He had to carry a bigger load when Kobe was off the court. Plus an underrated aspect of Volume scorers (Kobe, AI, and LeBron) is that they decrease the turnover rate for their role players. By taking up a lot of possessions, they decrease their role players need to do something fancy that will lead to a turnover.

[FJS]

My vote goes to Karl Malone

The best longevity right now. 17 elite seasons without miss more than 2 games per season. A perennial 25+ scorer, one of the best work ethic ever, and changing his game to maintain his level.
He never missed PO, with 6 WCF and 3 Finals (5 and 2 as the franchise player). His team had 13, 50+seasons (99 season was in pace of) and never 50% W-L or lower.

Perennial all star. He was first nba team in eleven seasons in a row. He paired with Barkley, Mullin, Hill, Pippen or Duncan in those years, but never was beat for 2 of them, or Wilkins,Bird,Chambers, Worthy, Kemp or Webber to name another great PF-SF who made all nba teams those years.

His only fault it's not to win a ring. With one ring, he would be already selected. When he was in his prime, his team don't help him enough in scoring. This make his efficiency to drop, but still his production was up.

[Reservoirdawgs]

I wouldn't be surprised if coaches let their assistants fill out the ballots and send them in. I remember reading somewhere that a lot of coaches don't fill out the all-star ballots and simply give them to their assistants. Anyway, I said my piece regarding Kobe's defense and judging by the response, I wasn't the only one who thinks that way.

I can't say the same for the NBA (although I have no doubt that it's the same) but Steve Spurrier and Lane Kiffin were open about how they would never fill out their ballots for Preseason POY, etc and that they would give it to their assistants.

[Notanoob]

it has to be Kobe now. I was torn between Kobe and Oscar, but I'm not seeing anyone else except for maybe Barkley who can compare individual now.

Kobe's individual offensive ability is something rarely seen. There simply haven't been many others who can carry a team at a comparable level with scoring, but Kobe was also one of the best playmaking wings of his generation, and would rank in the higher-tier all-time in that regard. He's also a fine rebounder for a guard and while prime Kobe wasn't as consistent as young Kobe defensively, he still had lockdown potential and would use it in some big match ups, and while you have to judge a player by what he does rather than what he's capable of doing, this is still important because we'd see Kobe step up defensively in the playoffs.

Kobe jump started a 31-9 finish to the season for the 2003 Lakers when Phil essentially made him the first option and Kobe responded with 9 consecutive 40+ games and 13 straight 35+ games. Then, Kobe carried the 2006 and 2007 Lakers to top 7-8 offenses with horrible casts, and did so with volume scoring streaks not seen in this era. Finally, Kobe gets some help midway through the 2008 season after leading the Lakers to a start that exceeded expectations, and the 2008 Lakers go 22-4 in the regular season with Gasol, then dominate the Western Conference playoffs(and this was a West with eight 50+ win teams, and Kobe led his Lakers to the best record in the conference). So that showed that those who said Kobe needed help in 2006 and 2007 were correct. Kobe showed what he could do in 2008 and 2009 with some help with the best record in the West and a finals appearance in 2008 followed by a 65-17 season and a championship in 2009, while leading top 3 offenses both seasons.

Prime Kobe was unstoppable. Had all-time great footwork and could get his own shot from anywhere at any time whether it was an outside shot, mid-range shot, in the post, or attacking the basket, particularly 2003-2008 Kobe, and on top of that, he was a very good playmaker who would regularly draw extra defenders because of his incredible scoring ability, but was a skilled passer and mature enough from the 2001 playoffs on to consistently find the open man and help run the offense. For a clinic in game management, facilitating and when to take over, just watch 2008 Kobe.

Kobe also raised his game in the playoffs, like only the true upper echelon greats do.

Prime 2003-2009 Kobe

Regular Season- 29.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 5.3 apg, 3.2 TO, 1.7 spg, 45.3 FG%, 35.1 3P%, 49.1 eFG%, 84.7 FT%, 56.3 TS%, 534 games
Playoffs- 29 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 5.4 apg, 3.2 TO, 1.6 spg, 45.1 FG%, 32.7 3P%, 48.6 eFG%, 83.5 FT%, 55 TS%, 90 games

And Kobe was close to that level for even longer, 10 seasons from 2001-2010

Regular Season- 28.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 5.2 apg, 3.1 TO, 1.7 spg, 45.6 FG%, 34.2 3P%, 48.9 eFG%, 84.3 FT%, 55.9 TS%, 755 games
Playoffs- 28.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 5.4 apg, 3.2 TO, 1.5 spg, 45.2 FG%, 34.1 3P%, 48.6 eFG%, 82.5 FT%, 54.8 TS%, 148 games

That's a lot of basketball at an extremely high level. How many other players can you find with a collection of finals runs like Kobe's in 2001, 2008, 2009 and 2010? Or dominant series like Kobe's WCF in 2001, 2009 and 2010? Nevermind the other great series Kobe has had in the first 2 rounds of the playoffs, like his 2008 and 2010 WCSF, another great WCF in 2008 ect.

My guess is if you find someone comparable, they've already been voted.

What about Jerry West?

He has better efficiency if you adjust for era, he was likely a better defender and more consistently good defender. He was certainly a better play maker than Kobe, and he raised his game in the playoffs too.

[E-Balla]

Spoiler:

You stopping at 2011 made me curious, so I went and looked up Pau's ORTG in 2012 - 2014. And it brings up a Devil's advocate question: how much of that increase once he gets to LAL should be attributed to Phil Jackson and the triangle offense? Because if you put a bit more detail and continue your chart of Pau''s ORTGs through the years:

05 - 112 Memphis
06 - 111 Memphis
07 - 115 Memphis
08 Memphis - 114
08 Lakers - 128
09 - 126 Lakers with Kobe and Phil
10 - 120 Lakers with Kobe and Phil
11 - 123 Lakers with Kobe and Phil
12 - 112 Lakers with Kobe but no Phil
13 - 107 Lakers with Kobe but no Phil and Pau injuries
14 - 102 Lakers with no Kobe, no Phil and Pau Injuries

It's always difficult to tease out patterns, but it sure looks to me that Phil Jackson and the Triangle offense were more the limiting factor for Pau's huge efficiency bump than Kobe was. In 2012 Kobe and Pau were both present and healthy enough to play almost every game, but Phil was gone and Pau's efficiency fell all the way back to the level that it used to be in Memphis.

Plus, this is a narrative that makes some sense, right? Pau was seemingly born to play in the Triangle with his passing ability and comfort making decisions. To an extent, Odom was too for similar reasons. And the Triangle has to-date proven to be the best offense for harnessing mega-high scoring SGs into a strong team offense.

I'm not saying having a talented teammate like Kobe wasn't helpful to Pau's efficiency...I'd think that it may have played a benefit as well. But at a first pass, it certainly looks like the sea-change difference was more about Pau getting integrated into the Triangle.

Spoiler:

Pau was washed up by then. After his performance in the 2011 playoffs everyone knew it and he never played at the level he did before (also Pau was injured most of 2012 too). He shot 42% from the field in the 2011 playoffs and there were even rumors that he was playing bad because either Shannon Brown slept with his girlfriend or Vanessa Bryant convinced her to leave Pau. Pau said it wasn't true and that he had tired legs (I totally believe him) but it's clear he didn't fall off gracefully but instead he hit his post prime like a brick wall.

Now I will say the triangle helped too (I made a note to say Kobe and Phil helped him elevate his game) but Kobe was the main playmaker in that offense and he helped Pau a lot. Pau fell off before Phil left (in the playoffs) and Kobe might not have been such a great teammate outside the triangle but just like the only other SG to get selected (and the only other SG in contention) he played in a great offensive system where they moved the ball (Jerry West and the Princeton offense/MJ and the Triangle being the other 2). If I didn't hold it against Jordan and I'm not going to hold it against West I won't hold it against Kobe.

A quick trip to the NBA stats page can fix this (this uses NBA.com's horrid pace calculation so his efficiency will be lower than it should be):

Pau with Kobe 2009: 114.1 ORTG
Pau without Kobe: 100.7 ORTG

Pau with Kobe 2010: 109.7 ORTG
Pau without Kobe: 103.8 ORTG

Pau with Kobe 2011: 111.3 ORG
Pau without Kobe: 104.1 ORTG

Pau ORTG in 2007: 106.5
Pau ORTG in last full season with Memphis (full meaning he played at least 2500 minutes so 2006): 104.3 ORTG

Basically without Kobe on the floor Pau was regular old Memphis Pau. I checked for Kobe too and he didn't get any more efficient with Pau out there with him fwiw.

Spoiler:

Pau wasn't the same after the debacle with his GF in 2011, and 2012 was the lockout year where efficiency took a tumble league-wide. the 2-man game he had with Kobe was the big reason for his increased efficiency in LA, not the Tri. Notice, the jump is immediate(before Pau even learned the Tri).

The 2 man game had little to do with Gasol's efficiency bump.


Here are Pau's numbers during the 09 and 10 seasons with and without Kobe on the court (per 36 minutes):

With: 18-10-3, .606 TS%
Without: 20-11-4, .609 TS%

He was simply a better player (in a better system). Nothing to do with 2 man game.

I don't think it's possible that both sets of underlined numbers for Pau in 2009 and 2010 are correct, unless Pau's turnovers just went nuts without Kobe and skewed the ORTGs to that extent which seems far-fetched. Anyone got time to independently confirm which of these is right?

No Pau did score more efficiently without Kobe on the floor but his turnover % skyrocketed from amazing LMA levels to average levels.

http://stats.nba.com/playerVsPlayer.htm ... de=PerGame

http://stats.nba.com/playerVsPlayer.htm ... de=PerGame

http://stats.nba.com/playerVsPlayer.htm ... de=PerGame

http://stats.nba.com/playerVsPlayer.htm ... de=PerGame

He was just ignoring the major TOV% increase.

[An Unbiased Fan]

Would anyone else care to weigh in on Dirk? In my comp with Kobe I currently have them essentially tied. I'd love to hear some other opinions.

I'm a fan of Dirk's, but don't see how its tied when Kobe is better offensively, and defensively than him. This again goes back to the Kobe vs Bird comparison where I'm not sure how Bird was better either.

Dirk's one real advantage is a higher TS%, but that came in lower volume. Kobe is the superior playmaker, and Dirk has never really impressed me in that regard. Defensively, Dirk was not good until Avery came there. He was decent in his prime, but again, not Kobe's level on that side of the court. Pre-Prime/Prime/Post-Prime, again Kobe has the advantage.

I can respect that you might have that opinion. But for clarity sake, my "tied" reference was the outcome of that overly long post that I made comparing Dirk and Kobe on a bunch of different levels. Whether it was looking at the box score data, the qualitative-type descriptions, the +/- data or focusing more on the playoffs I really wasn't seeing a lot of separation in either direction. Pretty much every part of the comparison, as far as I could tell, essentially came down to a pick 'em on preference. That's why I asked for more in depth opinions comparing the two. I know that you might feel that Kobe was better on offense and defense, but that isn't helping me so much in my decision. I need to know why you feel that way, specifically comparing Kobe with Dirk in a way that shows me that Kobe is clearly better.

Well in terms of offense, Kobe's the more prolific scorer, and more prolific playmaker.

Reg. Season
01-10 Kobe: 37.5 ppg/100 on 56% TS, 25.0 AST%
02-11 Dirk: 34.5 ppg/100 on 58% TS, 13.9 AST%

Playoffs
01-10 Kobe: 35.8 ppg/100 on 55% TS, 24.5 AST%
02-11 Dirk: 33.4 ppg/100 on 59% TS, 12.2 AST%
^
Dirk's shooting efficiency is great, no doubt. But Kobe isn't just scoring at a high level, he's always facilitating at a high duel level. Kobe has the most 25+ ppg/54%+ TS/20 AST% reg. seasons in NBA history, at 11 while Dirk has only 2 seasons above 15 AST%. in the playoffs, only MJ & Lebron have more.

Defensively, Dirk wasn't of note until Avery came. From there he certainly improved, but didn't have the defensive tools, timing, mobility, explosiveness that Kobe possessed on that side of the court.

Just look at their career arcs:

Age 20:
Kobe: All-NBA 3rd

Age 21:
Kobe: All-NBA 2nd

Age 22:
Kobe: #9 MVP/All-NBA 2nd
Dirk: All-NBA 3rd

Age 23:
Kobe: #5 MVP/All-NBA 1st
Dirk: #8 MVP/All-NBA 2nd

Age 24:
Kobe: #3 MVP/All-NBA 1st
Dirk: #7 MVP/All-NBA 2nd

Age 25:
Kobe: #5 MVP/All-NBA 1st
Dirk: #10 MVP/All-NBA 3rd

Age 26:
Dirk: #3 MVP/All-NBA 1st
Kobe: All-NBA 3rd

Age 27:
Dirk: #3 MVP/All-NBA 1st
Kobe: #4 MVP/All-NBA 1st

Age 28:
Dirk: #1 MVP/All-NBA 1st
Kobe: #3 MVP/All-NBA 1st

Age 29:
Kobe: #1 MVP/All-NBA 1st
Dirk: All-NBA 2nd

Age 30:
Kobe: #2 MVP/All-NBA 1st
Dirk: #10 MVP/All-NBA 1st

Age 31:
Kobe: #3 MVP/All-NBA 1st
Dirk: #7 MVP/All-NBA 2nd

Age 32:
Dirk: #6 MVP/All-NBa 2nd/Finals MVP
Kobe: #4 MVP/All-NBA 1st

Age 33:
Kobe: #4 MVP/All-NBA 1st
Dirk: All-NBA 3rd

Age 34:
Kobe: #5 MVP/All-NBA 1st
Dirk: N/A

11-4 age levels in favor of Kobe.

[ShaqAttack3234]

What about Jerry West?

He has better efficiency if you adjust for era, he was likely a better defender and more consistently good defender. He was certainly a better play maker than Kobe, and he raised his game in the playoffs too.

Well, West is a better candidate than Malone, but West's defense is more of an unknown than Kobe's since we really haven't seen much of it, I firmly believe Kobe was a better scorer and don't believe West had more of an offensive impact than Kobe did. Plus, I don't adjust for efficiency, and don't factor in that efficiency was lower in West's era because from what I have seen of West's era, I strongly believe Kobe faced tougher defenses anyway, so I'm left with the conclusion that the lower shooting percentages of that era were more a result of bad shot selection, less guards and wings having the ability to create off the dribble and get to the basket at the same rate and inferior shooting overall. While West had a very nice, modern looking jump shot, not all players, especially early in West's career did, or had one they could get off contested or off the dribble like West did. So I believe those are the reasons efficiency was likely lower league-wide.

[MistyMountain20]

Anybody like to talk about West's dribbling abilities. The videos I've seen of him show to have a very simple handle which I question how well it would be suited to today's game.

[Basketballefan]

Still waiting to hear how Dirk is better than Dr J..

[BmanInBigD]

I'm a fan of Dirk's, but don't see how its tied when Kobe is better offensively, and defensively than him. This again goes back to the Kobe vs Bird comparison where I'm not sure how Bird was better either.

Dirk's one real advantage is a higher TS%, but that came in lower volume. Kobe is the superior playmaker, and Dirk has never really impressed me in that regard. Defensively, Dirk was not good until Avery came there. He was decent in his prime, but again, not Kobe's level on that side of the court. Pre-Prime/Prime/Post-Prime, again Kobe has the advantage.

I can respect that you might have that opinion. But for clarity sake, my "tied" reference was the outcome of that overly long post that I made comparing Dirk and Kobe on a bunch of different levels. Whether it was looking at the box score data, the qualitative-type descriptions, the +/- data or focusing more on the playoffs I really wasn't seeing a lot of separation in either direction. Pretty much every part of the comparison, as far as I could tell, essentially came down to a pick 'em on preference. That's why I asked for more in depth opinions comparing the two. I know that you might feel that Kobe was better on offense and defense, but that isn't helping me so much in my decision. I need to know why you feel that way, specifically comparing Kobe with Dirk in a way that shows me that Kobe is clearly better.

Well in terms of offense, Kobe's the more prolific scorer, and more prolific playmaker.

Reg. Season
01-10 Kobe: 37.5 ppg/100 on 56% TS, 25.0 AST%
02-11 Dirk: 34.5 ppg/100 on 58% TS, 13.9 AST%

Playoffs
01-10 Kobe: 35.8 ppg/100 on 55% TS, 24.5 AST%
02-11 Dirk: 33.4 ppg/100 on 59% TS, 12.2 AST%
^
Dirk's shooting efficiency is great, no doubt. But Kobe isn't just scoring at a high level, he's always facilitating at a high duel level. Kobe has the most 25+ ppg/54%+ TS/20 AST% reg. seasons in NBA history, at 11 while Dirk has only 2 seasons above 15 AST%. in the playoffs, only MJ & Lebron have more.

Defensively, Dirk wasn't of note until Avery came. From there he certainly improved, but didn't have the defensive tools, timing, mobility, explosiveness that Kobe possessed on that side of the court.

Just look at their career arcs:

Age 20:
Kobe: All-NBA 3rd

Age 21:
Kobe: All-NBA 2nd

Age 22:
Kobe: #9 MVP/All-NBA 2nd
Dirk: All-NBA 3rd

Age 23:
Kobe: #5 MVP/All-NBA 1st
Dirk: #8 MVP/All-NBA 2nd

Age 24:
Kobe: #3 MVP/All-NBA 1st
Dirk: #7 MVP/All-NBA 2nd

Age 25:
Kobe: #5 MVP/All-NBA 1st
Dirk: #10 MVP/All-NBA 3rd

Age 26:
Dirk: #3 MVP/All-NBA 1st
Kobe: All-NBA 3rd

Age 27:
Dirk: #3 MVP/All-NBA 1st
Kobe: #4 MVP/All-NBA 1st

Age 28:
Dirk: #1 MVP/All-NBA 1st
Kobe: #3 MVP/All-NBA 1st

Age 29:
Kobe: #1 MVP/All-NBA 1st
Dirk: All-NBA 2nd

Age 30:
Kobe: #2 MVP/All-NBA 1st
Dirk: #10 MVP/All-NBA 1st

Age 31:
Kobe: #3 MVP/All-NBA 1st
Dirk: #7 MVP/All-NBA 2nd

Age 32:
Dirk: #6 MVP/All-NBa 2nd/Finals MVP
Kobe: #4 MVP/All-NBA 1st

Age 33:
Kobe: #4 MVP/All-NBA 1st
Dirk: All-NBA 3rd

Age 34:
Kobe: #5 MVP/All-NBA 1st
Dirk: N/A

11-4 age levels in favor of Kobe.

No offense, but that's a terrible way to look at careers. Dirk was competing against Duncan, Garnett, LeBron, and later Durant for All-NBA squads. All players at or above his level. Kobe had to compete against whom, Nash? CP3? Deron Williams? Wade and his very few healthy seasons? Gimme a break. Using All-NBA or even MVP voting, especially not even using the same years, to define a career is ludicrous.

[An Unbiased Fan]

Synergy is an awful way to judge defense and it's completely untested.

Novak famously had one of the best defensive ratings on Synergy in 2013. Why? Most of that is because they put him on weak defenders.

This is honestly hilarious coming from someone who's been spouting off +/- numbers left & right.

The beauty of Synergy is that we can look at Novak, and put the context of who he actually guards into the equation. And we have individual based metrics...not lineup data.

Kobe post-Shaq was mostly hidden on weaker defenders to conserve him for defense.

And the flaws we're talking about can't be picked up by Synergy well: team/help defense!

This is complete nonsense. A BIG reason Kobe makes All-D teams is because he does guard the other team's best players. Whether it was Wade, Bron, Melo, Tmac, and so on. Where was he hidden? Did they put the likes of Smush/Fisher on the guy, lol. or maybe Vlad/Luke guarded them.

[E-Balla]

Check the turnovers. Pau coughed the ball up a lot more without kobe on the floor. I posted his ORTG with and without Kobe from 09-11 earlier and his ORTG increase is almost entirely due to Kobe according to those numbers (I say it's 80% Kobe 20% triangle because Kobe without the triangle isn't as dynamic a playmaker).

The O rating numbers you posted aren't his O rating. Those are the Lakers O rating when Pau was on the court with and without Kobe.


Pau definitely increased in Turnovers without Kobe which is expected. He had to carry a bigger load when Kobe was off the court. Plus an underrated aspect of Volume scorers (Kobe, AI, and LeBron) is that they decrease the turnover rate for their role players. By taking up a lot of possessions, they decrease their role players need to do something fancy that will lead to a turnover.

Does NBA.com not keep individual ORTG numbers? The calculation for ORTG is a giant hassle (I've done it before).

Either way the turnover increase explains his efficiency.

Here's Pau's numbers with and without Kobe from 08-11 (when he was still in his prime):

per 36 with Kobe: 7696 minutes, 18.2/9.8/3.2, 61.0 TS%, 9.7 TOV%
per 36 without Kobe: 1736 minutes, 18.9/10.4/4.2, 57.5 TS%, 13.7 TOV%
per 36 06 Memphis (only all star before going to LA): 18.7/8.2/4.3, 55.5 TS%, 13.8 TOV%
per 36 07 Memphis (best pre LA season): 20.7/9.8/3.4, 59.3 TS%, 13.5 TOV%

Basically from 08-11 his efficiency bump did come from Kobe. And in the sample you chose his scoring efficiency is equal but his TOV% nearly doubles (from 9.8% to 16.0%). I don't see any reason to say it was mostly the triangle since Pau didn't get more efficient without Kobe and with the triangle.